Why can’t National answer straight forward questions about the Council of Trade Union’s critique of their tax policy?

Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, October 5th, 2023 - 40 comments
Categories: national, same old national - Tags: ,

Amelia Wade, political reporter for Newshub, has a piece up today about the Council of Trade Union’s analysis of the alleged benefits of National’s tax cuts (she also mentions the Goldman Sachs’ warning about National’s tax policy),

It’s a big focus of National’s campaign too. It said its tax plan will help up to $250 a fortnight.

To get that, the family must be spending at least $300 a fortnight on childcare, and it needs two adults earning between $53,500 and $66,000 to get the $25.30 per week tax cut.

The Council of Trade Unions has worked out just how many families would get that – it estimates about 3000 households would.

“If the National Party disagrees with this analysis, it should show who benefits and when,” said CTU economist Craig Renney.

Luxon on Wednesday said he couldn’t remember how many families will get the full $250.

Wade also tweeted this this morning,

Shared the CTU’s numbers and workings with the Nats and asked how many households they expected to get that $252 p/fortnight promise. Instead of providing an answer, Nats sent a conspiratorial press release saying it had uncovered Labour “gutter politics”

For all those who missed the point – the Nats’ spin machine trashed a long-standing understanding about embargoes & broke trust to try and ‘win’. Not seen anything so blatant the 14 years I’ve been a journalist. All while not answering a very basic question about their policy.

We now have both National and NZ First actively refusing to answer important questions about their policies during an election, in the face of serious critique of those polices from economists and the media. This isn’t even dirty politics, it’s just blatant ‘we will bollocks our way through the election, because nothing matters any more other than gaining power’.

The Greens have well costed, progressive polices, and as micky pointed out this morning about Labour,

I expect this blog post will attract two types of comments.  Incredulity at the suggestion that Labour is a better manager of the economy than National.  And disappointment that Labour is a better manage of the capitalist system than National.

But the reality is clear.

Put aside the corporate angst and the uber rich donation dollars being spent on trying to achieve even lower tax rates Labour manages the economy better than National.  And at least it also puts effort into solving child poverty and environmental challenges.  Sure some of us want it to do more but it has achieved way more than National.

And it will not wreck the economy in the pursuit of tax cuts for those who already have more than enough.  To be paid by those who cannot afford it and the run down of public services that help us all.

Labour has been a very careful manager of the economy and despite the rhetoric the economy is in good shape.  We face the prospect of a UK style economic collapse if National get into power and implement their Liz Truss style policies.

UPDATE:

The conspiratorial press release from National is here.

Grant Roberston is very good in this stand up today, calm and competent: he’s never seen a major political party have their flagship policy debunked by economists from across the political spectrum. Then naming it for what it is: National’s tax policy is a scam

40 comments on “Why can’t National answer straight forward questions about the Council of Trade Union’s critique of their tax policy? ”

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  1. mickysavage 1
    5 October 2023 at 11:37 am

    Bishop has gone all conspiratorial on it.

    From a National Party press release:

    “Today, the CTU has attempted to launch another attack on National’s tax relief plan.

    [snip]

    “The CTU ‘economist’, Craig Renney, was most recently advisor to Grant Robertson. Rather than take responsibility for providing abysmal advice to his Minister that has driven high inflation and high interest rates or advocate for his members who would be better off under National’s tax relief plan, he is spending his days peddling nasty attacks on National.

    “Serious questions should be asked about the extent to which Labour is laundering attacks through the CTU and Capital Government Relations.

    “It seems there is no limit to how low Labour will go with their campaign of misinformation and gutter politics. But why anyone is taking them or the CTU seriously at this point is beyond me."

    Shock horror. Highly qualified PR professionals who want to create a better world are providing support to the trade union movement.

    Bishop should address the substance of the CTU's argument. It is telling that he refuses to do so but instead sees conspiracies.

  3. Peter 3
    5 October 2023 at 12:55 pm

    Why can’t National answer? Why should they, they don’t have to. The election die was cast long ago and the phase now is ‘trimming round the edges.’ Taking a risk on ‘leave well enough alone’ would seem to be sensible.

    • weka 3.1
      5 October 2023 at 1:20 pm

      Did you mean to advocate NZ has a government with a bogus tax plan?

      • Peter 3.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 4:13 pm

        At this stage it’s minutiae very few punters will be so affected by it will be the deal breaker for where their tick goes.

        As usual the critical energy will be simply in those exercising enough to exercise their vote.

        • observer 3.1.1.1
          5 October 2023 at 4:28 pm

          It's not minutiae. It's a core issue: "Do you trust Luxon?".

          Polls are clear on that. People don't. Including National voters.

          But of course it's not just about short-term tactics. There's a bigger, more important picture. Sure, Luxon's likely to become PM. But that doesn't mean he should just be waved through.

          Trust matters – before and after elections.

          • Incognito 3.1.1.1.1
            5 October 2023 at 4:54 pm

            I trust that Luxon will struggle big time – he already is and he’s already showing signs of not coping and ducking when it gets too challenging for him.

        • weka 3.1.1.2
          5 October 2023 at 6:59 pm

          Did you mean to say that economic policy of a major political party in NZ that might form the next government is irrelevant minutiae?

    • georgecom 3.2
      5 October 2023 at 6:45 pm

      indeed, why can't National answer simple questions? why can't they release the costings for their tax policy? why when people look closely into their tax cut policy do we keep finding holes?

  4. AB 4
    5 October 2023 at 1:10 pm

    The only time I've see the National Party seriously held to account for dishonesty was for their attempts in 2020 to undermine public confidence in the Covid response. Most of the time they can get away with virtually anything – this is one of those times.

  5. SPC 5
    5 October 2023 at 1:12 pm

    Nicola Willis admits there are only 3000 who would be better off by $125 a week ($250 a fortnight) but says others could check how much they could get.

    Reminds me of ads, up to an extra 6 inches with .. and then you will not need to afford Tesla etc to impress X (formerly Twitter) birds.

    Time for a mock ad

    The restoration of the mortgage cost tax deductability against rent income will deliver up to $1m to landlords each year

    (based on a landlord with 100 properties with an average rent of $600 pa $3m income no tax of $1M liable).

    Meanwhile most people get either $10 (IETC) – those below the median wage and others above the median (up to $120,000) $25 a week

    This is leas than the money from a rise in the MW or a wage increase under the FPA industry awards or the Greens 3% cap on rent increases.

  6. tsmithfield 6
    5 October 2023 at 2:26 pm

    So, it seems to me that the CTU has confirmed National's promise given the "up to" provision.

    For National's statement to be accurate, the amount of families required to be getting $250 per fortnight is precisely one. So, it could be argued that National's promise is 3000 times better than that, even if the CTU research is accepted.

    In any statistical distribution there will always be a tail at either end where there are a small number that are at the most extreme point. Hence, it is to be expected that the number getting the largest possible amount will be quite small.

    I really don't know what the fuss is about tbh.

    There is a calculator available where people can check for themselves how much they will get. So, people can find out easily enough whether the tax cut promise is worth it for them.

    • weka 6.1
      5 October 2023 at 2:32 pm

      it matters because they are campaigning on an economic policy that doesn't stack up fiscally, will drain money from the poorest people in the country and that gives the best financial advantage to the well off. And they've been refusing to answer questions about it for weeks now. Mostly because they can't.

    • Barfly 6.2
      5 October 2023 at 2:35 pm

      "For National's statement to be accurate, the amount of families required to be getting $250 per fortnight is precisely ONE. So, it could be argued that National's promise is 3000 times better than that, even if the CTU research is accepted."

      /boggle

  7. tsmithfield 7
    5 October 2023 at 2:33 pm

    I just did the used the calculator myself for the following parameters:

    Two working parents:

    Parent 1. $70000 pa Parent 2 $30000 pa. Two children. Child care spend $150 pw.

    Amount per fortnight: $160.06.

    Note, that the figures above are not particularly extreme or unusual. I have children myself who are around those figures.

    Not the full $250. But not a snivelling amount either.

    • AB 7.1
      5 October 2023 at 3:08 pm

      A breakdown by (say) each $50 increment would be more truthful – with the number of households (and percentage of total households) for each increment. Do it for $0, $1-50, $51-100, $101-150, $151-200, $201-250. [Then we can look at where the majority of households fall within the whole $0-250 range. It seems likely to me that this work has already been done by National, and the messaging is designed to emphasise the best case and obscure what such a breakdown would really tell us.

      Once we have this analysis we could start to do other correlations – such as what is the mean average income of households within each of the $50 bands. The result is likely to show that the largest benefits are skewed towards the people with higher incomes – just not so blatantly as National’s usual approach of cutting the top income tax bracket.

      • tsmithfield 7.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 3:21 pm

        It is just good marketing. Like the "up to 50% off"' type of sales that stores often run.

        They sort of have done what you suggest by providing a calculator so people can see what they get. From what I have seen, having kids that child support is paid for makes a big difference to the overall amount.

        But, yeah, what you suggest could likely be done. And it could be done using their calculator. It is just a matter of plugging in a range of figures like I did, and it would be easy enough to spit out the type of report you suggest.

        The figure I came up with seems reasonably likely for a lot of families who have kids in child care. If kids are going into child care it stands to reason that both partners are working. So, the

        • observer 7.1.1.1
          5 October 2023 at 4:03 pm

          It is just good marketing. Like the "up to 50% off"' type of sales that stores often run.

          Yes, it is very much like that. So the follow-up question is: How do customers feel when that happens? What is their reaction when they go to supermarkets offering a "special price", which turns out to be more expensive than last week?

          We know how they feel, because there have been many media reports about it, with hundreds of complaints. Example:

          Consumer NZ complains to Commerce Commission about 'misleading' supermarket pricing | Stuff.co.nz

          Technically legal? Yes. Trustworthy? No.

          If customers are angry when this tactic is used by stores, how much more angry will they be when they get this from their own government?

          Luxon or Willis saying "Ah, you didn't read the small print" is a reply that will go down like a bucket of cold vomit.

          It likely won't affect the election outcome much. Too late for that. It sure as hell will affect the voters' trust afterwards, with major consequences – for all of us.

          • tsmithfield 7.1.1.1.1
            5 October 2023 at 4:25 pm

            I guess it depends. If you went into a store and found that only one item was at that discount, and most was at say 5%, then sure. It is technically correct but quite misleading.

            But, in this case, I gave what I think would be a fairly representative example that would likely apply to a lot of people. And they were getting a fair chunk of the $250.

            I don't know what more would be acceptable. If someone were to ask them outright what the maximum amount anyone could get, then they would have to answer $250 per fortnight. I don't see the current situation as much different to that.

            • observer 7.1.1.1.1.1
              5 October 2023 at 4:34 pm

              See my link at Comment #8.

              It's not a reply to a question, it's mentioned in the second paragraph because Luxon was proclaiming it. It was THE story at their policy launch.

              So your earlier analogy is valid. It is very much like a Briscoes/Bunnings ad … shout loud, reel them in, and then … well, they're already in the shop, so there's a fair chance they're gonna buy.

              Retail Psychology 101. Except this is not shopping, it's democracy. Don't the public deserve better than cynical manipulation?

              • tsmithfield …
                5 October 2023 at 4:46 pm

                I did look at that. But it doesn't seem to me to apply to the situation we are talking about. It was mainly about people being charged incorrect prices, or being charged more than the advertised price in supermarkets.

                In this case National have made it clear that $250 is the maximum, and that there is a tax calculator where people can check for themselves to see what they actually will get, and if it is worthwhile for them.

                • Patricia Bremner …
                  5 October 2023 at 7:22 pm

                  A very small flannel you are using.

                • Tony Veitch …
                  6 October 2023 at 6:21 am

                  But Luxon repeatedly said 'the average family would receive $250 a fortnight.' No 'up to.' Just a broad and bold statement.

                  At best, that is deceptive. At worst, when he apparently knew all along that only 0.18% of 'average' families would get the maximum, some pretty serious lying.

                  But, what else can you expect from an evangelical fundamentalist?

          • Drowsy M. Kram 7.1.1.1.2
            5 October 2023 at 4:30 pm

            It sure as hell will affect the voters' trust afterwards, with major consequences – for all of us.

            Yep, more so for the many than for the few. ‘Thank Labour’ for this research. Imagine anything similar being done under a NAct govt – "Look over here…"

            IRD report reveals ‘fundamental unfairness’ of how the wealthy are taxed [27 April 2023]

            Wealthy the world over love to grizzle about how they are unfairly treated, and Aotearoa is no different – Get Unearned Income Back on Track!

    • ianmac 7.2
      5 October 2023 at 4:59 pm

      At the moment isn't there a boost for pre school assistance of about $20 or so but National are going to cancel the current top up aren't they? Give with one hand but take away with the other?

  8. observer 8
    5 October 2023 at 4:17 pm

    The story is this whole campaign, in microcosm:

    1) National release tax policy. Promise "up to $250". Phrase is widely – and uncritically – quoted. You don't need links, there are hundreds of them, but in case you have been asleep …

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300960677/election-2023-national-party-releases-full-146b-tax-plan

    2) Seven weeks go by. Many headlines about polls, polls, polls.

    3) Voting begins.

    4) CTU releases report. Media wake up.

    I'm not one of those here who put everything down to "right wing media bias". It's not that so much, it's just that they lack basic professional standards. Challenge, investigate, analyse … that's journalism.

    A photocopier is not a journalist.

    • AB 8.1
      5 October 2023 at 5:19 pm

      “Many headlines about polls, polls, polls.”

      This has caused a real degradation in the quality of political journalism. Polls are weaponised more than a year out from the election, National Party operatives like Farrar (Curia) and the Taxpayers Union set up a relationship to do just that, plentiful reckons are then possible by journalists without leaving their keyboards. Time to ban publishing the bloody things for a year out from the last possible date for each election. Voters simply do not need poll information to make rational decisions and polls are clearly a potential form of disinformation.

  9. Ngungukai 9
    5 October 2023 at 5:50 pm

    Political journalism is crap these days with very little political analysis, it is mainly identity politics and digging up the dirt and misleading the voter.

  10. Mike the Lefty 10
    5 October 2023 at 6:08 pm

    On TV1 news tonight, when defending the scam Nicola Willis looked like someone who had been caught smoking in the girl's room.

    • observer 10.1
      5 October 2023 at 6:20 pm

      Everyone should watch the TV1 and TV3 reports on this, when they come online.

      They clearly address the questions raised earlier in this thread.

      Luxon omitted the crucial words "up to" in his interviews. So not even a misleading but pedantically correct statement, but an outright lie. No more room for doubt, he repeatedly lied.

      It's frustrating that they have waited 7 weeks to call Luxon/Willis out, when it was obvious from the start that their tactics were to bluster and bullshit. And still are.

      • dv 10.1.1
        5 October 2023 at 10:37 pm

        3000 households of 1.6m NZ households is abt 0.2% get the tax break

        WOW

        AND its up to 0.2%!!!!!!!

  11. D 11
    5 October 2023 at 10:15 pm

    Total beat up. I'm amazed people and the.media are even bothering running with this, it's like note understanding math. It is pure desperation. Try comparing with GST of fruit and vege, what will that save people up to?

  12. Tricledrown 12
    6 October 2023 at 8:47 am

    Goldman Sachs say Nationals Tax Cuts will cause inflation. So these tax cuts will be self defeating with inflation taking away any value. Plus stalling economic recovery. So the average family will be worse off with much smaller tax cuts and higher inflation. Luxon and Willis are falling over themselves running around trying to spin their way out of their own extravagant claims.

  13. Tiger Mountain 13
    6 October 2023 at 8:51 am

    Natzos have been caught with their Harcourts blue pants and pant-suit pants, down around their ankles…semantics over “up to” are not going to do it for them.

    Tora!–Tora!–Tora! time Labour. Grant Robertson has done a good job here, as has the normally tame NZCTU.