Why UK Labour lost? Part 9: What the party needs to do now.

Written By: - Date published: 10:37 am, January 17th, 2020 - 12 comments
Categories: Austerity, Brexit, International, Jeremy Corbyn, labour, politicans, Politics, uk politics - Tags: , , , , , , , ,

 

UK Labour lost the general election. A new leader needs to be elected. The Labour Party is now consumed in this process.

Much has been said and written about why Labour lost, the quality of which varies considerably. The broader context of this defeat is that over the last century, UK Labour has won 8 out of the last 28 general elections. Overall the Labour Party is not a successful electoral force in the UK. What makes the 2019 loss harder, is that the party lost sections of its historical base in the North of England and the Midlands.

But being honest isn’t just about focussing on the negative. Many have compared the 2019 election to 1983. Labour in 2019 did well in London, with many MPs being returned with staggering majorities. By contrast in 1983 Labour’s result was no where near as strong in London.

Also Labour performed strongly with younger voters. The below map shows how voters under the age of 40 voted in the 2019 election:

Image result for Map of UK election if only under 40s voted
Above is the UK electoral map if only voters under 40 voted. Source: Election Maps UK

Labour and parties of the left did significantly well with young voters. By contrast back in 1983 the Conservatives enjoyed a much higher support from younger voters. During the election I discussed the impact younger voters were having on UK elections, and that this is part of a global trend. Younger voters have been hit hard by a decade of austerity. For many under 40 the middle class aspirations of their parents generation are far beyond reach. For this reason, trying to pitch Labour to the aspirational centre will likely alienate rather than inspire younger voters. But if the Party can hold much of this support, it give it a good base to build on for the future.

The problem Labour faces is the UK is now a polarised electorate. Generational divides have seldom been so stark. The Brexit vs Remain division runs deep, and trying to win support from both sides is damn near impossible at this time. The other major issue that I’ll discuss in a future blog is the future of the United Kingdom. The future of Scotland and Northern Ireland as members of the United Kingdom is far from certain.

The SNP’s success in the general election effectively wiped out Labour in Scotland, and continues a decade long decline of Labour as a political force there. Many in Labour still see winning back Scotland as the path back to government. The prospect of this happening seems increasingly unlikely. For Labour, their focus needs to be on winning support in England and Wales. Scottish independence isn’t certain, but Scotland being a separate nation wanting seperate representation is now a fact of life. It is now unlikely that any English dominated political party will gain the majority of seats in Scotland ever again.

The current Labour Leadership race is gearing up. Underlying this race will be a debate between two waring factions within the Party. One supports a return to a 3rd way Labour like Blair led in 1997. The other, supports Clement Attlee style Social Democracy. these are two distinctly different political ideas, both trying to operate within the same political party. While many 3rd way supporters may feel more comfortable in the Liberal Democrats, under First Past the Post their chances of gaining government are limited. Likewise for socialist or social democrats, forming a new left party would likely struggle in the current electoral system. So these two political perspectives are forced to share the Labour Party.

I’m not going to pick the upcoming leadership election, or do analysis on any particular candidate at this stage. But understanding the context in which this race takes place is crucial. The reasons for Labour’s defeat weren’t just about leadership. The challenge for Labour is trying to win power in a small c conservative electorate. Also an electorate that is deeply split over the question of Europe. An electorate that is four seperate nations, where in Northern Ireland and Scotland there are growing calls to leave the UK. An electorate where there is a generational divide more stark than ever. And an electorate where the gap between rich and poor continues to widen. But most importantly, an electorate that traditionally has not voted Labour and where trust in the party and its politics is lacking. Despite all this Labour can win the next UK election. But it will need to do a damn sight more than just elect a new leader.

 

Previous posts in this series

Why UK Labour Lost? Part 1: Historical Context

Why UK Labour lost? Part 2: UK Labour’s strange loyalty to First Past the Post

Why UK Labour lost? Part 3: Its Brexit Innit

Why UK Labour lost? Part 4: Oooo Jeremy Corbyn

Why UK Labour lost? Part 5: Antisemitism

Why UK Labour lost? Part 6: New Labour and Blairism

Why UK Labour lost? Part 7: Momentum and the Corbynistas

Why UK Labour lost? Part 8: what it takes to win?

12 comments on “Why UK Labour lost? Part 9: What the party needs to do now. ”

  1. Dennis Frank 1

    The part of Blairism that wasn't actually banal or deceitful was the tacit support for enterprise. Since enterprise is the psychological drive that powers business, it is essential to the economy. Leftists somehow remain unable to grasp this elementary fact.

    There's still too much of the politics of envy in leftist political thought (which was what Ayn Rand pointed out so long ago). If leftists continue to expect people they despise to give them jobs rather than create those jobs themselves, how can others not view them with contempt?

    Why spend their whole lives avoiding this issue? It's hardly surprising that those willing to work with business constructively (centrists) can't see any common ground with those who want to pretend to fight their employers as enemy (leftists). Then there's the deceit of the leftists: denial of their co-dependency. Since that exists, better to take responsibility for their personal inadequacies. If they do, next step is to see that the employer is not the enemy. Potentially a partner in enterprise.

    Instead of remaining conceptually stuck in the 19th century, why not reinvent capitalism in the 21st? Plenty of people working on that project already. It's common ground that both Labour tribes could occupy with the intention of collaborating. That’s way better than perpetual warfare.

    • Climaction 1.1

      Because socialist thought hasn’t progressed aince the start of the 20th and capitalism in any form is therefore inherently evil

    • RedLogix 1.2

      Wow. I'm 'envious' that I didn't write that. cheeky The first sentence especially is delightfully concise, thank you.

      But otherwise yes yes yes. My view of 'centrism' is not that it is a political position or philosophy. Arguably that's the mistake Blair made and it ultimately led to the charge of dishonesty you level against it.

      In my view the centre (and it's numerous variants) is better thought of as a process in which the wide range of values and interests that are natural and necessary for a healthy society … are able to negotiate and devise strategic plans.

      • Dennis Frank 1.2.1

        That final paragraph of yours is what I mean by political praxis re centrism. I'm not a typical centrist due to having been radical/eclectic originally, but I eventually learned how to be pragmatic.

        Whereas most centrists are realist/opportunist, a few are progressive. I sometimes use the nautical metaphor even though I'm not a sailor: tack left or right as needs be. You make progress towards your goal inevitable if you use this method. 😎

  2. pat 2

    will say again ….1 in 3 voters didnt bother

  3. Ad 3

    UK Labour won't be rescued by young people.

    They just age.

    Case in point Ardern: saved the party from defeat, but is proving both too young and too old at the same time.

  4. Peter Bradley 4

    Most voters don't understand economics or make the connection between taxing the wealthy and their current standard of living. The electorate is imbued with the idea that successful commerce and business are the only factors governing their own financial position.

    In reality the major economic transformations that occurred in Western countries after the Great Recession in the 1930's driven by Keynesian economic ideas and a 'conscious' working and middle class voting for socialist governments are the factors that gave rise to today's high (relative) living standards. These factors fought explicitly against the interests of capital and introduced the welfare state – pensions for the elderly and relief for those in poverty, publicly funded health care and education and an expansion of government oversight of commerce via regulation and higher taxation.

    The truth is that something like 70% of government tax revenue comes from about 20% of the top wealthiest in the population and it is spent on those who contribute far less. This is by definition socialist wealth re-distribution and without it we would be a third world country with homelessness and poverty rates among the elderly at an unprecedented scale and an uneducated and exploited working class that would suffer from disease, starvation and child mortality not seen since Feudal times.

    Socialism and the constraint of capitals natural instincts is what advanced countries depend on and the fact that this is not recognized or under stood by working and middle class voters is a tragedy that I suspect our children and grand children will pay a high price for. It may take another brutal decimation of economic activity equivalent to the 1930's for class consciousness to re-emerge as a dominant and effective political force once again.

    • Dennis Frank 4.1

      Peter, I think the problem is that all that is now part of history and few folks read history. Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it, as the old saying goes.

      Sensible reasoning like yours is what Corbyn & Sanders have needed to issue to rehabilitate socialism. I'm puzzled that they don't see the need. The notion of received wisdom seems to lie in the tacit part of the psyche. Perennial wisdom cannot be perceived as such by younger generations unless oldies articulate it.

  5. Marcus Morris 5

    Can you expand on that?

  6. Marcus Morris 6

    "The truth is that something like 70% of government tax revenue comes from about 20% of the top wealthiest in the population and it is spent on those who contribute far less". I presume that by this you mean income on earnings and not all the other taxes that generate revenue for the government i.e the GST that is paid by everyone on every purchase. Are you also implying that the wealthy do not use any of the multiple services that the state provides.

    For me the real issue in the "wealth gap" is the value of land which has become a tradable commodity in itself. A case in point is an acquaintance and his wife who have recently moved to a retirement village. They have sold their family home at a price they would once only have dreamed of, paid cash for their brand new unit and have a goodly sum in the bank. For the first time in their lives, and now in their eighties, they have a lot of discretionary cash. My friend did not make this move intentionally but went with the flow. Many others have traded property knowing they will not pay for any capital gain. In my opinion the one false move that Jacinda Adern has made was ruling out a Capital Gains Tax while she is in charge.

  7. DS 7

    I'm not sure where you get the 8 out of 28 figure. Since the end of the First World War, Labour has won 11 out of 28.

    11 Wins: 1923, 1929, 1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 (twice), 1997, 2001, and 2005.

    17 Losses: 1918, 1922, 1924, 1931, 1935, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019.

  8. Mad Plumber 8

    It is interesting reading your thoughts but and I do not mean to be rude but Do you really know what the voter wants not what you think the voter wants and to do that you need to talk to the voter maybe face to face. My work place's age distribution has changed where I am and depending on the conversation I am the old fossil, you where alive for the first world war etc, we are a plumbing drainage and roofing company so political correctness does not stand a chance. Most are between 20-30 and their needs are different to what you think and what you are talking about would go over their heads but these are the people the Labour / Greens need to reach. It is surprising the twaddle that comes out and a lot of it comes from facebook etc.

    For some it is the cost of rent,tuition fees,why do we have to go to Christchurch to attend poly tech and find somewhere to stay for a week or two and of course the cost of a house. Surprisingly as a group they are for leagalising cannabis ( they all know where to get it) but are very concerned how it is going to affect their employment and driving. This group is not interested in theory wealth distribution etc but if you can reach them with a simple message and gain power then you will be able to do the bigger things

    [Changed the user name again to the one you have used here previously if that is ok with you]

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  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
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  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
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    5 days ago
  • That Word.
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    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
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  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
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  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
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  • The return of Muldoon
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  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
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  • Racism’s double standards
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  • It’s not a tax break
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
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  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
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    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
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    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
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  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
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  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
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  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
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  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
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  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
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  • Why Newshub failed
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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Government moves to quickly ratify the NZ-EU FTA
    "The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
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    13 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
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    1 day ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
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    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
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    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
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    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
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    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
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    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
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    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
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    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
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  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
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  • Government delivering on tax commitments
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    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
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    5 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
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    6 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
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  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
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  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
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  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
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    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
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    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
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    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
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    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
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  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
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    6 days ago
  • Government backs rural led catchment projects
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    7 days ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
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    1 week ago
  • Commission’s advice on ETS settings tabled
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    1 week ago
  • Government lowering building costs
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    1 week ago
  • Trustee tax change welcomed
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    1 week ago
  • Minister’s Ramadan message
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    1 week ago
  • Minister appoints new NZTA Chair
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    1 week ago
  • Speech to Life Sciences Summit
    Good morning all, it is a pleasure to be here as Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology.  It is fantastic to see how connected and collaborative the life science and biotechnology industry is here in New Zealand. I would like to thank BioTechNZ and NZTech for the invitation to address ...
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    1 week ago
  • Progress continues apace on water storage
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    1 week ago
  • Government agrees to restore interest deductions
    Associate Finance Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government has agreed to restore deductibility for mortgage interest on residential investment properties. “Help is on the way for landlords and renters alike. The Government’s restoration of interest deductibility will ease pressure on rents and simplify the tax code,” says ...
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    1 week ago
  • Minister to attend World Anti-Doping Agency Symposium
    Sport and Recreation Minister Chris Bishop will travel to Switzerland today to attend an Executive Committee meeting and Symposium of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). Mr Bishop will then travel on to London where he will attend a series of meetings in his capacity as Infrastructure Minister. “New Zealanders believe ...
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    1 week ago

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