What happened?

Written By: - Date published: 9:44 am, November 10th, 2024 - 71 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, climate change, david seymour, Donald Trump, International, politicans, Shane Jones, us politics - Tags:

As the dust settles and the pundits start punditing it is time to think about what happened in America and how did Trump win?

And perhaps more importantly what are the implications for New Zealand politics?

I can’t think of a less suitable candidate. Apart from the multiple charges he was facing, his deep baked in narcissm and racism, his complete lack of empathy and humanity, his clear signs of mental decline, his lack of understanding of what is happening in the world, his climate change denier views, his facist tendancies and his motivation, whicn appear to be exclusively the pursuit of power and wealth for himself not to mention the ability to pardon himself for his various legal transgressions. He had no vision, no clear idea of where he wants to take the United States and the world. And his views on Europe and Russia will mean that the Ukraine war will be lost and NATO will be severely weakened. Trump’s mate Putin must be grinning from ear to ear. And he tried to overturn the last election result by force.

Trump was the least suitable candidate imagineable.

But he won.

The Democrat Party is reeling.

Publicly Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have made reassuring noises about the transfer of power. There will be no attempted insurrection this time.

Some are pointing the finger at Biden. Given his clear mental decline he should not have sought nomination and after the debate debacle he should have withdrawn more quickly. Harris did not have enough time to establish herself with the public.

Harris’s campaign appeared to be as good as possible. There were no apparent mistakes made and she performed well in the debate.

But it was the basics that mattered.

Three quarters of the country thought the country was on the wrong track. Most thought that their personal circumstances had become worse under the Biden administration.

This has been a difficult time for incumbent governments in western Countries and it does not matter if they are left or right.

Here in Aotearoa New Zealand a year ago Labour was turfed out of office, in Australia the right wing Liberal party was turfed out the year before. The Conservatives in the United Kingdom were humiliated as was Macron’s party in France. Throughout the world it has been a bad time to be an incumbent. The flow on and repercussions of the Covid lock downs including inflation and compromised supply lines have affected people and it does not matter how many times you point this out people hold their governments accountable.

Nationally the Democrats lost 6% points in the presidential race. In the battleground states where their campaign was concentrated it was 3%. Trump made major inroads in Democrat strongholds such as New York and New Jersey and Conneticut and Rhode Island. An active campaign made a difference but it was not enough.

Numerically Trump achieved a similar number of votes to what he achieved last time. But Harris’s 68 million votes were much lower than Biden’s 81 million. Quite a few people chose to sit the election out.

And Gaza hurt the democrats. Arab Americans either sat the election out or some even voted Trump.

Trump had very few policies. He is going to engage in the mass detention of illegal immigrants. He plans to throw the world’s economy into a tail spin by implementing across the board tarriffs. He will give corporations a tax cut. And he will wind back diversity, equity and inclusion programs in government institutions.

He wants to cut federal funding “for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory, gender ideology, or other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content on our children”. In energy he has mimiced Shane Jones and wants to “drill baby drill”. And he will wind back US involvement in Internation affairs.

Harris’s policies were somewhat vague and centrist. Tax cuts for the middle class, increase home ownership, growing business, a clamp down on “bad actors”, bringing down the cost of health care and support unions. They were fine but did not capture the electorate’s imagination.

But economic issues and the perception that the US economy was in bad shape was clearly the main cause fot the loss.

Trump and the Republicans were very happy to invoke fear through cultural issues.

An ad complaining that Harris supported sex change surgery for prisoners and supports letting biological men compete against girls was broadcast repeatedly. There have been two instances where inmates have received gender affirming surgery and this was completed under laws existing during Trump’s previous reign but this did not matter.

Trump also claimed regularly that kids were going to school and receiving gender affirming surgeries before they return home. Dear reader this has not occurred.

Trump campaigned a lot like Luxon last year. Everything was terrible, everything was bad. They fuelled feelings of grievance and this contributed to Labour’s and the Democrat’s failure. Wall to wall negativity is clearly a tactic the right are learning to finesse.

Culture wars are used to divert attention both here and in the United States. The interests of the oil and mining companies and the tobacco companies and the wealthy are then quietly looked after. And sometimes, for instance attacks on the Treaty, they fulfill dual roles in diverting attention while at the same time weakening environmental protection that Maori inevitably provide.

There was also the perception that the Democrats were a privileged elite. The Democrats need fewer PHDs and more Trade Unionist and workiung class candidates. The same could be said for the Labour Party. I believe the success of Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn is evidence that grass root campaigns that are relevant to ordinary people can succeed.

The media does not help. In the US and in New Zealand there is an entrenched right wing media that relentlessly repeats the right’s talking points. The main stream media engages in both sides notions of artificial balance. Progressive media in both countries is weak and lacks the resources of the right wing equivalent.

And it is clear that people now choose their sources of news. And they are not all reliable.

I expect that Trump’s success will energise the local right. Their behaviour will become diabolically bad. The progressive left need to reflect on this and work out the best way to respond.

71 comments on “What happened? ”

  1. SPC 1
    10 November 2024 at 10:09 am

    Trump won without discussing policy detail much, he did not run as a politician but as a leader for the people.

    Making all sorts of boasts about his ability and what he could do.

    His staff won in 2016 with a better campaign – Cambridge Analytica and their Facebook hack (data about voters).

    This time the party enrolled 300,000 people in Pennsylvania who had not bothered to register in the past and got them to mail in vote.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-voter-registration-advantage-eroded-pennsylvania-means-2024-rcna176420

    https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/09/pennsylvania-voter-registration-2024-election-democrat-republican-independent-harris-trump/

    Reply
    • SPC 1.1
      10 November 2024 at 10:27 am

      The central part of it all is the MAGA movement as part of their revival tradition.

      This was done in three parts

      1.kulture kampf (an alliance against liberals).

      2.America first (ending illegal migration and imposing tariffs).

      3.Christian nationalism (an alliance with those wanting the next "awakening" to be post Democratic era, kingdom come).

      Reply
    • Infused 1.2
      10 November 2024 at 3:49 pm

      There is a huge amount known if you were following trump, Vance, elon and jfk

      Reply
      • SPC 1.2.1
        10 November 2024 at 4:08 pm

        Following Trump and Vance (they are eating cats and dogs … tariffs are paid by foreign governments … ).

        Whose JFK, the guy who wrote Why England Slept (while facing as fascist threat)?

        Reply
  2. Joe90 2
    10 November 2024 at 10:18 am

    What happened?

    Dude says it out loud.

    .

    I’ve had a lot of conversations since Tuesday revolving around the question of why Donald Trump won. The economy and inflation. Kamala Harris didn’t do this or that. Sexism and racism. The border. That trans-inmate ad that ran a jillion times. And so on.

    These conversations have usually proceeded along lines where people ask incredulously how a majority of voters could have believed this or that. Weren’t they bothered that Trump is a convicted felon? An adjudicated rapist? Didn’t his invocation of violence against Liz Cheney, or 50 other examples of his disgusting imprecations, obviously disqualify him? And couldn’t they see that Harris, whatever her shortcomings, was a fundamentally smart, honest, well-meaning person who would show basic respect for the Constitution and wouldn’t do anything weird as president?

    The answer is obviously no—not enough people were able to see any of those things. At which point people throw up their hands and say, “I give up.”

    But this line of analysis requires that we ask one more question. And it’s the crucial one: Why didn’t a majority of voters see these things? And understanding the answer to that question is how we start to dig out of this tragic mess.

    The answer is the right-wing media. Today, the right-wing media—Fox News (and the entire News Corp.), Newsmax, One America News Network, the Sinclair network of radio and TV stations and newspapers, iHeart Media (formerly Clear Channel), the Bott Radio Network (Christian radio), Elon Musk’s X, the huge podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, and much more—sets the news agenda in this country. And they fed their audiences a diet of slanted and distorted information that made it possible for Trump to win.

    https://newrepublic.com/post/188197/trump-media-information-landscape-fox

    Reply
    • mpledger 2.1
      10 November 2024 at 3:17 pm

      When you look at the two people who tried to assassinate Trump, you would have expected them to have some major manifesto with detailed justifications about why it was necessary. But one was barely connected to politics and the other to a really fringe cause (from an American perspective) which didn't really connect to the assassination anyway.

      Despite the media bombardment, people still seemed really unaware of the issues and even that Biden had pulled out. I think we underestimate how much time Americans work and commute and how little free time they have.

      Here is a dual citizen English/American women, who has lived in both countries, talking about why Americans are more likely to fall for cults. It's not directly connected to the election but interesting non-the-less. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z33egsRqpWA

      Reply
      • joe90 2.1.1
        10 November 2024 at 3:30 pm

        people still seemed really unaware of the issues

        The memory hole is real.

        Now, the generation that came of age during the #MeToo era is turning to social media for information about candidates and elections — 39 percent of young adults say they frequently get their news from TikTok, according to Pew Research. This week, many said on the social network they were shocked by the former president’s words and confused why the episode wasn’t a dealbreaker in 2016.

        “I don’t think any of my friends had heard it,” said Kate Sullivan, a 21-year-old student in Ohio who heard the tape for the first time on her TikTok For You feed this week. “We all felt equally shocked.”

        […]

        Brigid Quinn, a 15-year-old in Georgia, knew that Trump had been accused of making sexist comments, she said. But she had never heard the words he actually said — including the ‘grab them by the pussy’ quote. She “didn’t understand how people thought this was normal.”

        https://archive.li/MAGYV (wapo)

        Reply
  3. Anne 3
    10 November 2024 at 10:22 am

    The media does not help. In the US and in New Zealand there is an entrenched right wing media that relentlessly repeats talking points. The main stream media engages in both sides notions of artificial balance. Progressive media in both countries is weak and lacks the resources of the right wing equivalent.

    And we saw a perfect example of the above on Q&A this morning. It was extraordinary. If an alien happened to be watching, he/she would have come away with the notion that:

    Nothing much will change. Just a few tweaks here and there. Trump's got it sorted. Yes, he's not always predictable but that can be an advantage. It will keep his adversaries guessing what he will do next. That will be good. Yes, there's a bit of a problem with climate change – end of discussion.

    What his perceived 'adversaries' might think or do about the guessing game apparently is not important. He is effectively planning to bargain the lives of millions of people around the world to salve his desire to be seen as the world's strongman. Yet that didn't warrant a serious mention as far as I could tell.

    It does not auger well for an enlightened and progressive media response to what we know is going to happen over the next few years.

    Reply
    • mpledger 3.1
      10 November 2024 at 3:47 pm

      I think a lot more leaders will have got his handle by now. They'll placate him face to face and do nothing. Even friendly leaders will be less invested in keeping American relationships humming – they'll see no economic value when there are tarriffs ahead and they'll see no social value because of the unjustifiable social control imposed on people. They'll see no gain for their countries in that kind of alignment.

      Reply
  4. Mike the Lefty 4
    10 November 2024 at 11:02 am
    1. The Democrats did as in 2016, thought that is wasn't possible that a well-educated , sane and (at least somewhat) progressive woman could lose to a misogynistic, crooked old windbag but once again miscalculated the American masochistic tendency.

    2. The Republicans campaign was much better organized. They got people out to vote (for them) the way the Democrats couldn't. Yes, they lied, they cheated but in American politics the end justifies the means.

    3. Biden held on too long before bowing to the inevitable. Harris had too little time to imprint her personality on voters and show how different she was.

    Reply
  5. Koina 5
    10 November 2024 at 12:52 pm

    Trump won in 2016 because it was the Republicans turn to win after 8 years of Obama Americans don't vote for old women (Hillary) . Old decrepit men but not old women.

    America usually gives Presidents two terms.

    But Trump lost in 2020 because of Covid .

    So Republicans were bent on revenge after only getting one term with Trump.

    Biden was a walking corpse.

    Harris did ok but the swinging voters were easy meat for the usual

    White hate for minorities, China + Liberals Trump Rhetoric

    2028 Trump must stand down.

    Even Vance taking over like Harris wont save the Reds.

    A Democratic victory is assured

    Reply
  6. weston 6
    10 November 2024 at 1:37 pm

    Boo hoo hoo Trump won an Kamela lost oh boo hoo hoo sob what will we do now .

    Well at least Trump is likely to continue to support the genocide in gaza and Lebanon so thats good right ???

    Supporting and enabling ethnic cleansing by dropping 2000 pound bombs on houses full of civilians is good right ???

    Doesnt surprise me particularly that supporters of the Biden /Harris regime reside right here on TS what surprises me is that they like to delude themselves into imagining that they are LEFT !!!!!LOL

    Reply
  7. Tom Hunter 7
    10 November 2024 at 1:54 pm

    Apart from the multiple charges he was facing, his deep baked in narcissm and racism….

    When your response to such a catastrophic loss is merely to repeat all the arguments and talking points that failed it would be a waste of time to rebut them point-by-point. Suffice to say that a majority of Americans did not believe you, and you can choose either to accept that you were wrong or that they’re stupid.

    Ok, there is a third option, which is that all these reasonably intelligent people were fooled with the aid of the MSM, leading to this…

    In the US and in New Zealand there is an entrenched right wing media that relentlessly repeats the right’s talking points. The main stream media engages in both sides notions of artificial balance.

    Then why aren't they thriving as Righties like me read, watch and listen to them, subscribe to them, buy their papers? In fact why is it the opposite case that increasingly large numbers of us cheer on their steepening decline and look forward to their complete and total destruction?

    One of your commentators above is more on point with the New Republic quote about the growing influence of alternative media, including the likes of Joe Rogan, plus older forms like FoxNews. But all those sources have been looked down upon for decades by the MSM and they haven't grown from nothing just because some rich people have backed them, but because people have dumped the legacy media and switched over, especially the young, who never took to the MSM to start with and are not coming back.

    Even so the NR piece is just more excuse-making and copium. They didn't even mention PewDiePie. 😉

    Oh and Die MSM, Die.

    Reply
    • Incognito 7.1
      10 November 2024 at 4:04 pm

      You answered your own questions, which therefore were rhetorical and don’t warrant rebutting and further response.

      Enjoy the rest of your peaceful day.

      Reply
  8. mikesh 8
    10 November 2024 at 2:12 pm

    And his views on Europe and Russia will mean that the Ukraine war will be lost and NATO will be severely weakened.

    Which was of course one of the very few things in Trump's favour.
    Though Ukrkraine seems to have pretty well lost anyway going by the displays of desperation coming from Zelenski these days.

    Reply
    • SPC 8.1
      10 November 2024 at 3:38 pm

      So you welcome the seizing of territory by war, in breach of international law?

      And the weakening of collective defence in Europe?

      There was a time when all lefties opposed right wing authoritarian (Russia here) regimes doing such things.

      Reply
      • mikesh 8.1.1
        10 November 2024 at 3:51 pm

        This is a proxy war between USA and Russia, and the USA does not support imternational law, except of course when it favours them. I think they prefer a "rules based order" where they, or Wall Street, make the rules: a regimen with which, I think, Russia is not in agreement.

        Reply
        • SPC 8.1.1.1
          10 November 2024 at 4:18 pm

          Do you support international law?

          I realise you would excuse Russia not doing so, because of USA.

          So nations deemed to be in a "proxy war" between Russia and USA, can have their territory taken and this is OK?

          Do you also have no questions about the annexation of the Golan Heights by Israel (and onto the WB), or Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia because it’s a proxy war?

          Reply
          • mikesh 8.1.1.1.1
            10 November 2024 at 6:18 pm

            So nations deemed to be in a "proxy war" between Russia and USA, can have their territory taken and this is OK?

            If a country on Russia's border allies itself with an aggressive enemy of Russia then I would say all bets are off. What would you do if you were Putin and you could envisage missiles lined up along the Ukraine/Russia border at some future date after Ukraine had become a member of NATO. I would say that defense of one's country takes priority over strict adherance to "international law"; a law which your enemy rarely observes anyway.

            The US plan seems to be to create enough problems for Russia in order that Putin might be thrown out of office and a more USA friendly leader elected, which would allow Uncle Sam can spread his poisinous neoliberal polical/economic into Russia and impoverish her. That's why they are keen on continuing a war which Ukraine is losing.

            Ifr you think this is all being done for the benefit of Ukraine, then you are a bigger fool than I would have taken you for.

            Reply
            • SPC 8.1.1.1.1.1
              10 November 2024 at 6:30 pm

              You do realise that once one makes the apology for such security first behaviour (warring on neighbours and acquiring territory), for one nation – this is then license for others.

              For mine, it is Cold War thinking, but without the restraint in practice.

              The natural outcome is then defence alliances and increased military spending.

              Reply
              • mikesh …
                10 November 2024 at 6:50 pm

                And yet, the threat remains. I suggest you take the matter up with comrade Putin himself and see what he has to say about it.

                [If you have nothing useful to say then say nothing and don’t just run off giving another commenter the finger, thanks – Incognito]

                Reply
              • aj …
                10 November 2024 at 7:24 pm

                The natural outcome is then defence alliances and increased military spending.

                The Security Dilemma.

                https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_dilemma

                Reply
              • mikesh …
                10 November 2024 at 9:39 pm

                You do realise that once one makes the apology for such security first behaviour (warring on neighbours and acquiring territory), for one nation – this is then license for others.

                And yet, despite all of that, the threat to Russia still exists, and Putin needs to meet it.

                Reply
                • SPC …
                  10 November 2024 at 9:59 pm

                  Chose to meet it in that way.

                  I was debating this issue with someone from Hong Kong in Dec 2021 and concluded Putin would not attack, as it as not his smart move.

                  Germany was resisting increasing its defence spending to 2%, despite it being a 2014 NATO commitment to reach by 2024, and going with the gas pipeline deal (restraint might have led to a review of NATO). Now Sweden and Finland are in NATO and Germany will spend 2% of GDP on defence.

                  Reply
                  • mikesh …
                    10 November 2024 at 11:57 pm

                    Now Sweden and Finland are in NATO and Germany will spend 2% of GDP on defence.

                    I'm not sure why. Russia was not threatening Finland, Sweden or Germany; or any other country in Europe for that matter. The possibility that Finland and Sweden might apply for NATO membership was not anticipated when Putin made the decision to invade (as far as I know).

                    I would argue that countries on Russia's border should observe a strict neutrality so as to provide a buffer between Russia and Western Europe. They may not have liked doing so of course, but one cannot argue with geography, and the demands it makes in the political sphere. In the long run, though, Russia, China and Europe will need to put aside their hostilities and realise that that they share a single continent and that it is in the interest of all that that continent be shared in peace; though America is doing its damndest to prevent that from happening.

                    Reply
              • Subliminal …
                11 November 2024 at 1:09 pm

                I think that if you might find that "taboo" was broken some time before Ukraine was invaded. I know memory is hell these days but I'm sure if you applied yourself, you could remember.

                Clue: It was the west what dunnit in their unipolar moment post cold war. And more than once.

                Reply
                • SPC …
                  11 November 2024 at 1:20 pm

                  I covered a few in 8.1.1.1.

                  If you can mention cases that involved annexing of territory go at it.

                  The Balkans was largely a break-up into the component parts, excepting Kosovo out of Serbia to be independent.

                  Turkey has occupied parts of Syria, but not annexed them.

                  Reply
            • joe90 8.1.1.1.1.2
              10 November 2024 at 7:34 pm

              If a country on Russia's border allies itself with an aggressive enemy of Russia then I would say all bets are off.

              Palestinians on Israel's border have allied themselves with an aggressive enemy of Israel. Are all bets off there, too?

              Reply
              • mikesh …
                10 November 2024 at 9:45 pm

                Palestinians on Israel's border have allied themselves with an aggressive enemy of Israel. Are all bets off there, too?

                What does that have to do with the Ukraine situation.

                Reply
      • Infused 8.1.2
        10 November 2024 at 3:51 pm

        Well it's 800bn and counting. How much longer is the US going to pay, while it itself ticks up massive debts.

        Reply
  9. Sanctuary 9
    10 November 2024 at 3:04 pm

    Vlad Vexlar is basically eveything on this.

    Reply
  10. Tom Hunter 10
    10 November 2024 at 4:04 pm

    Watching DrArleneUnfltrd, an expert on “All things Politics, Government and Elections” explain the election is an excellent lesson.

    Reply
  11. Maurice 11
    10 November 2024 at 5:52 pm

    What Happened:

    Three masterpieces of electioneering

    1) Rising defiant after the first assassination attempt

    2) The McDonalds stint (about 15 scripted minutes!)

    3) The Garbage truck pantomime

    Each struck the right cord with his potential voters.

    Reply
  12. Dennis Frank 12
    10 November 2024 at 7:51 pm

    I largely concur with your analytical overview, although Trump believes the msm is leftist (except Fox & Breitbart). Your belief that it is rightist balances that perfectly.

    Harris’s campaign appeared to be as good as possible. There were no apparent mistakes made and she performed well in the debate. But it was the basics that mattered. Three quarters of the country thought the country was on the wrong track. Most thought that their personal circumstances had become worse under the Biden administration.

    Quite so. Then there's this:

    Democrats suffered a 10 point drop among Latino women, while failing to move the needle among non-college educated women at all, who again went for Trump 63-35, preliminary data suggests. The shortfall was not for lack of trying. Throughout her 15-week campaign, much of Harris’s messaging was aimed directly at women…

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3e8z53qyd5o

    Seems like a marketing strategy failure: the product just didn't have sufficient mass appeal. Somehow the felon with multiple convictions appealed more.

    Reply
    • joe90 12.1
      10 November 2024 at 8:40 pm

      Then there’s this:

      The parents in this story came here illegally as teenagers and became citizens under the Reagan amnesty.

      But they're not worried about Trump because he'll only deport the bad people.

      @cwebbonline

      A Latino family who voted for Trump speaks out. Not going to lie—this is tough to watch. SPOILER ALERT: It was about the economy. Trump’s threats of mass deportation didn’t matter to them, as they believe it won’t affect their undocumented relatives, because they aren’t criminals.

      https://xcancel.com/cwebbonline/status/1855038532475031740

      Reply
      • Visubversa 12.1.1
        10 November 2024 at 9:33 pm

        And we saw a republican elected person from Florida saying on PBS News that the deportations would only apply to people who came here illegally in the last 4 years. I bet that is as true as everything else Trump says.

        Reply
  13. Tom Hunter 13
    10 November 2024 at 11:23 pm

    Well I have had a peaceful day; it is Sunday after all. So rather than get into more of the ugly details of this disaster let's travel back in time to early July where we can watch Jon Stewart nail down the rhetorical problems with Biden – and more importantly his Party and the MSM – as a preview of what would happen with Kamala and the election,

    Take it away Jon.

    Reply
    • Incognito 13.1
      11 November 2024 at 9:02 am

      Of course, your Sunday was peaceful because you were commenting here on TS.

      You’ve confirmed yet again that it frequently is futile to respond to RW rhetoric that deflects and diverts by default.

      Reply
  14. Psycho Milt 14
    11 November 2024 at 6:05 am

    An ad complaining that Harris supported sex change surgery for prisoners and supports letting biological men compete against girls was broadcast repeatedly. There have been two instances where inmates have received gender affirming surgery and this was completed under laws existing during Trump’s previous reign but this did not matter.

    If so, it would have been a very easy ad for the Democrats to respond to. However, they were unable to make a response.

    Reply
  15. tsmithfield 15
    11 November 2024 at 9:26 am

    I think that voters simply thought Trump would be best for their back pockets. I don't think they cared very much about all the negative stuff about Trump. I think they were well aware of all that, and still voted for him.

    In some ways, that gives some reassurance to the extent that gotcha style politics likely won't triumph over substance. Though, in this case, I don't like the idea of Trump being elected at all.

    The other problem was that I think Biden hung on too long. And I am not convinced that Harris was the best candidate. If the trigger had been pulled earlier, they might have been able to have a much more contestable process in electing a leader.

    The thing I find troubling is that a country the size of the US can't find two better candidates than what they had.

    Reply
    • Maurice 15.1
      11 November 2024 at 11:52 am

      The thing I find troubling is that a country the size of the US can't find two better candidates than what they had.

      A more horrible thought is that both are the 'best' the present US political system can some up with …..

      Reply
  16. Ad 16
    11 November 2024 at 11:20 am

    Kamala blew a 5-point post Convention bump, and had the full 4 years of name and delivery recognition, and attracted massive celebrity endorsements from celebrity and political giants, and massive funding hauls, yet still went backwards so fast and took the whole Dem team down with her. Hope the Dems bury her.

    I don't for a second buy any criticism of the media when Republicans were not natural fits with the digital media empires so they made their own and succeeded.

    And sure the sun will rise tomorrow, incumbency is hard, the other side were mean, whatever.

    To me the model to watch isn't Bernie Sanders or Corbyn. The model is Starmer: get in office on low policy and then tax the crap out of them.

    Reply
    • Dennis Frank 16.1
      11 November 2024 at 11:57 am

      smiley Got a chuckle out of your closer there, but is he actually doing it? If so, cue an essay on that topic to prove it. If still in the pipeline, defer.

      Reply
    • SPC 16.2
      11 November 2024 at 1:40 pm

      Kamala blew a 5-point post Convention bump, and had the full 4 years of name and delivery recognition, and attracted massive celebrity endorsements from celebrity and political giants, and massive funding hauls, yet still went backwards so fast and took the whole Dem team down with her.

      First there is little change in the House.

      And Biden does not buy that fact free narrative.

      1.The GOP had a significant lead in the polls.

      2.The bump she got took it back to even. Back in the race.

      3.People presumed being back in the race meant she would pull ahead and go on to win.

      Some pollsters never showed her ahead. These were the more accurate ones.

      4.Polls showed Trump ahead in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and N Carolina. Leaving her one path to win, in the rust belt, just as with Clinton in 2016.

      5.The results in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were close in 2016 and 2020.

      There were concerns about the Michigan vote (Arab and Moslem discontent), but the relative change in party registration 2020-2024 in Pennsylvania (the GOP registered a lot of older newbies and got them to mail in vote) also had impact.

      Clinton had a large poll lead but lost some close races, Biden an even larger lead and just won the marginals. Harris never had much of a lead in nationwide polls and was known to be behind or at risk in the marginals.

      Reply
      • SPC 16.2.1
        11 November 2024 at 6:17 pm

        The Senate results are not a total disaster – holding in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan and Arizona (Montana, Ohio and WV are gone). And it is still close in the Pennsylvania count (still a chance of 48-52).

        Reply
  17. Anker 17
    12 November 2024 at 8:26 pm

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/11/11/take-it-from-a-metropolitan-liberal-we-are-why-trump-won/

    heres another perspective as to why Trump lost, written by a “metropolitan liberal”

    fully expect this to be shouted down cause it was published on Spike. Up to you all whether you do or not. I don’t care. But it might open your eyes to a different perspective on what’s happening across the West.

    there are many other reasons Trump won.
    The media in NZ is neither right or left, it’s woke. Trust in the media in NZ is going through the floor.

    Reply
    • Dennis Frank 17.1
      13 November 2024 at 5:03 am

      yes short, succinct, and accurate

      Reply
      • SPC 17.1.1
        13 November 2024 at 8:54 am

        No it is not.

        It is a caricature of what happened, and is based on a right wing kulture kampf narrative.

        But, why am I not surprised?

        The writer is a libertarian who is pro Brexit, a person with a background in the centrist Liberal Democrat (mainstream managerial of the status quo and Remain).

        What a lapse from the sensible centre.

        The right wing drift towards economic nihilism and base nationalism is an indication of a move to radical exclusionism.

        The "metropolitan liberal" concedes they were never invited to dinner parties with the liberal left and was not sad about that, indicating they have had a long term animous towards anything left wing and from an illiberal place.

        Thus a tendency to adopt right wing narratives to "offer advice" to them after an election defeat in the USA.

        And acceptable to right wing media in the UK facing 5 years of tax increases under Labour (the Tories ran the same lines in the UK and it did not prevent election defeat).

        Reply
        • Incognito 17.1.1.1
          13 November 2024 at 9:05 am

          No it is not.

          Let me help you with interpreting DF’s comment; what he meant is that he liked it and therefore agreed with it. Therefore, DF’s comment was ‘short, succinct, and accurate’.

          QED

          Reply
          • SPC 17.1.1.1.1
            13 November 2024 at 9:11 am

            … and the article linked to was simplistic and short, not a serious article and either indicative of a serious decline of standards in right wing UK media, or a post Tory government "funk".

            Reply
            • Incognito 17.1.1.1.1.1
              13 November 2024 at 9:19 am

              All true; you need to read between the lines and feel the vibe. One can be knee-deep in shit but feel awesome if one takes the right pill.

              Reply
      • SPC 17.1.2
        13 November 2024 at 9:04 am

        Short and succinct.

        1.The Democrats are not going to win by giving up feminism to attract more young male voters.They won among young female voters.

        2.there is research that shows what issues concerned voters. Social conservative kulture kampf did not register.

        https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/

        Reply
  18. SPC 18
    12 November 2024 at 8:43 pm

    Nick Tyrone is a journalist, novelist and writer who has published articles in The Spectator, Daily Express, The Independent, New Statesman.

    Nick Tyrone is a former director of CentreForum, described as 'the closest thing the Liberal Democrats have had to a think tank'. He is author of several books including 'Politics is Murder'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiked_(magazine)

    Reply
  19. Anker 19
    13 November 2024 at 9:58 am

    SPC. And your point is. people on the left have a choice. They can either read from a wide range of views on issues such as why Trump won US election in order to have the best chance of figuring what went wrong and have the best chance of reversing it, or they can attack any messengers who provide a different point of view and stay in their bubble.

    totally over to you

    Reply

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