Blowout in costs of Roads of National Significance

Written By: - Date published: 10:06 am, November 17th, 2024 - 3 comments
Categories: climate change, Environment, national, same old national, simeon brown, transport - Tags:

There was further unwelcome news for National this week with the release of figures concerning the costs of National’s Roads of National Significance or as Matt L at Greater Auckland describes them, roads of National Party Significance.

Waka Kotahi’s figures suggest that costs could be anything between $5 billion and $15 billion greater than National claimed in its campaign material last year.

The figures have always been dubious. When they were released Labour’s David Parker pointed out that some of the costings were way out of kilter.

In particular:

“Tauriko West SH29 – National has put the cost at $1.9 billion. Waka Kotahi’s latest estimates put the cost range at $2.5 – $3.25 billion ($600 million – $1.35 billion short).

Warkworth to Wellsford Expressway – National says $2.2 billion. The latest Waka Kotahi estimate is $3.5 – $4 billion ($1.3 – $1.8 billion short).

Cambridge to Piarere – National says $721 million. The latest Waka Kotahi estimate is $1.5 – $2 billion ($780 million – $1.28 billion short).

Whangarei to Port Marsden – National says $1.3 billion. The latest Waka Kotahi estimate is $1.41 – $1.67 billion ($110 – $367 million short).”

The latest Waka Kotahi cost estimates suggest that the cost of the Warkworth to Wellsford Expressway and the Cambridge to Piarere motorway have miraculously decreased. It may be the scope of both projects have been wound back.

But the overall cost, originally put by National at $17.3 billion is now at best $22.3 billion and at worst $32 billion. That is a lot of Cook Island Rail ferries to cancel to meet this cost.

Here are the details:

No doubt National will barrel on ahead with the projects despite the benefit cost ratios heading south and despite the fact that we are in a climate crisis and should be spending on infrastructure that will address this, not induce demand for more car driving.

And something surprising happened while I was researching this post.

I went to the National Party website to find its Transport for the Future document to check on its costings.

The document was not there which seems weird.

When I checked the way back machine the link to the document used to be there. In fact in May of this year it was still available.

Here is a screen grab of the archive.

And here is a screengrab of the site as it is currently.

The other policy pages appear to be intact and still link to other policy documents from last year. As far as I can tell the Transport for the Future document is the only one missing.

The document is however available on the web. Interest.co.nz has a downloadable copy here.

But is National hiding its policy documents hoping to frustrate efforts to review what it previously promised?

That is pretty tricky.

3 comments on “Blowout in costs of Roads of National Significance ”

  1. Patricia Bremner 1
    17 November 2024 at 11:33 am

    Well Micky CoC appear to have fudged or even lied by omission about so many policies, this is no real surprise that their figures don't add up.

    Willis’ budget interview with Jack Tame remains a clear pointer.

    So much of their arrogant self belief is currently being challenged. You can ignore advice science and sense only so often before you have to eat humble pie, or even lose support which appears to be the outcome.

    Excellent work done here Micky, and I would venture another "Tui" moment is coming with Health and Education.

    When your key man is scrapping over Milo in Health, and in Education buses to Rural schools have been removed, it shows poor planning.

    We also have a contentious bill passed which ignores the need for equity and sells a false idea of equality. This has received a huge challenge both in and out of the House.

    CoC have played Jenga with the Economy, and they have destabilised everything to the point people are questioning the Leadership, the direction and the relevance to our values and way of life. Pull out too many foundation blocks and it could all cost far more to repair or replace with deminishing income.

    Their reputation as "Better Managers" is looking very hollow, and their money over people approach is creating a double dip recession. imo

    Reply
  2. john 2
    17 November 2024 at 11:42 am

    What has happened to the promised 20,000 more charging sites for EVs?

    Reply
  3. Bearded Git 3
    17 November 2024 at 12:13 pm

    32 billion….that is almost 11 Dunedin hospitals

    Reply

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