Open mike 23/11/2024

2 comments on “Open mike 23/11/2024 ”

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1. Dennis Frank 1

   23 November 2024 at 9:45 am

   The next TV1 poll ought to give us a preliminary indication of whether the ACT chihuahua's marketing campaign appeals to Nat supporters or not. This Green voter is gung ho re that potential: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2024/11/22/why-act-will-hit-double-digits-in-2026-election-and-why-its-an-existential-crisis-for-national/

   His sociological analysis of the ACT supporters uses a tetrad:

   1. Rich landowning urban white Christians who don’t like Māori political aspirations but enjoy the aesthetics of the culture to not feel so white. The kids are totally in private schools and their names are ‘Apple’ and ‘Bruschetta’. Most aren’t sure what a Libertarian is.

   2. Chinese and Indian Migrants who don’t understand why poor people and the Māoris get welfare. These small business owners lust for political influence and see National Party local events as a chance to work business contacts while demanding to know why New Zealand can’t have the death penalty like they do back home.

   3. [Those] who complain about Te Reo in the Weather report on TVNZ. They live in the South Island and believe the solution to every problem is ‘More Cows’.

   4. Edgelord Culture War Boomers voting for ACT because of shrill definitions of sovereignty and democracy. Like Chris Trotter at a dinner party no one wants to be at.

   I don't know any ACT supporters but readers who do can have fun filing them into these categories. Meanwhile, I'll predict that all 4 sub-tribes are incapable of grasping Seymour's alt-principles but will support him regardless – but the ACT poll ratings will struggle to achieve double figures again. My logic is simple: Lux does complacency just as easily as Hipkins, whereas Seymour is a change advocate. The legendary kiwi complacency will defeat him. Too many think the Nat/Lab duo are just like them.

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2. Dennis Frank 2

   23 November 2024 at 10:06 am

   Toby Manhire draws a parallel between Aotearoa & Germany:

   Just look at Germany – the prototype for our own proportional system, where the “traffic light coalition”, the country’s first three-party coalition in more than 60 years, has just collapsed, triggering an early election to be held next February. No doubt David Seymour will be keeping an eye on developments in his downtime: the German government came a cropper after the free-market Free Democratic Party balked at what it saw as a leftward budget. The FDP is of special interest to Seymour – he was so impressed with them when trying to rebuild the Act Party that he borrowed everything from ideas to the colour strip.

   https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/22-11-2024/this-week-three-parties-stood-together-can-they-withstand-the-storm-to-come

   Biodiversity prevails in the German political situation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_German_federal_election – so deal-making between parties is more imperative than here. The Greens have dropped 4 points in the past year despite having 2 cabinet ministers.

   Toby makes an interesting point though:

   Any shot Labour might have of restricting Luxon’s government to a single term will surely be dependent on forming a government with TPM support, as well as the Greens. Expect Hipkins – should he lead Labour into the election – to spend a lot of time talking about the Greens, and even more about Te Pāti Māori. Is withdrawal from the Five Eyes alliance a bottom line? Is the establishment of a Māori parliament? Does he go along with the latest example of histrionic rhetoric?

   Well, his & Labour's default is to ignore anything contentious (on the basis that ignorance is bliss) so we can expect him to equivocate and evade until its too late.

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