Anemic recovery

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 7:49 am, June 24th, 2013 - 113 comments
Categories: class war, economy, employment, national - Tags: 99%, austerity, expansionary austerity

Despite the heroic efforts of National’s spinsters (Hi Matthew!) the economic “recovery” remains anemic. Over the last few days we’ve had various reports. Let’s start here:

Economy grows just 0.3pc – half expected pace

The New Zealand economy grew at half the pace analysts were expecting in the first three months of the year as drought across the North Island sapped milk production and dragged the agriculture sector down. The kiwi dollar fell on the numbers.

Gross domestic product grew 0.3 per cent to $37.1 billion in the three months ended March 31, from a pace of 1.5 per cent in the December period, according to Statistics New Zealand. That’s half the 0.6 per cent rate predicted in a Reuters survey of economists and below the 0.5 per cent pace forecast by the Reserve Bank in its June monetary policy statement published last week.

The economy grew at annual 2.5 per cent, in line with expectations, and activity in the March quarter was 2.4 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier. …

“Today’s data confirmed the economy started 2013 on a mixed note, with recent quarterly volatility a reminder that the economy is navigating its way through various shocks. This volatility looks set to continue given the pending drought hit, with the required shift in resources to facilitate rising construction sector activity likely to create tensions,” said [ANZ economist] Smith.

“Moreover, the housing-induced uplift still looks difficult to sustain without a pronounced improvement in the labour market backdrop, and with pending fiscal tightening and a RBNZ prudential policy response.

We’re spending our houses again. Not good. And there’s cause for concern on jobs too:

Job ads not at economic recovery party

Job advertisements fell 1.7 per cent in May, reversing previous gains and indicating that the job market has yet to catch up with the economic recovery, ANZ says.

The latest ANZ New Zealand Job Advertisements report shows newspaper job ads fell 7.2 per cent in May, while internet job ads fell 0.7 per cent. This was despite strong gains in February and March.

Given that job advertising leads changes in unemployment data by six months, the new figures suggest a risk the unemployment rate will rise, the bank said.

When it comes to the big picture you simply can’t beat Bernard Hickey:

Reform tax to spread recovery fairly

…Stock markets around the globe slumped when US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke threatened to turn off the money-printing drip by mid-next year. Long-term interest rates rose sharply. Most importantly for New Zealand, even China’s new leadership got in on the act, forcing up interest rates to their highest point in a decade. The NZ dollar fell three US cents to its lowest point in a year. Banks started raising fixed mortgage rates. Now we’ll see just how sustainable the economic recoveries in the US, China and NZ are. Will we see yet another false start before a relapse to medicated remission? …

NZ shares a big problem with the US and Europe. Our household sectors are still heavily indebted and incomes in the middle and lower income groups are barely above where they were five or six years ago.

Figures this week show NZ’s real per capita GDP is still 1.3 per cent below 2007’s. Most of the gains in any economic recovery have gone to the top few per cent of the population. Property owners in Auckland and owners of stocks have been the major beneficiaries.

A study of the US recovery from 2009 to 2011 found the incomes of the top 1 per cent rose 11.2 per cent, while the real incomes of the bottom 99 per cent fell 0.4 per cent, which meant the top 1 per cent captured 121 per cent of the recovery’s gains.

True economic rehabilitation requires reform to more heavily tax the incomes and assets of the wealthiest 10 per cent then redistribute that as income to the bottom 90 per cent. [My emphasis]

What recovery there is has been captured by the few – see also:
Economic growth still benefiting only a few
Times tough but not for Nats’ friends

As I’ve been saying for a long time now – we’ll dig ourselves out of the economic doldrums eventually, not because of the Nats’ policies, but in spite of them. All National have managed is to hold us back for four years.

113 comments on “Anemic recovery ”

Comments are now closed

tc 1

24 June 2013 at 8:27 am

The top end of town is doing very nicely thanks and the farmers can do as they please with their land pretty much with juicy revenue generating assets on the block, job done in the NACT world.
Colonial Viper 2

24 June 2013 at 8:50 am

Hmmmmm…any serious economic growth means more fossil fuel use and consumption of imported products. That’s the dilemma we find ourselves living in within the current system.
mickysavage 3

24 June 2013 at 8:54 am

The Auckland housing market is scary. Lemming like there are hordes of people wanting to buy houses signing more and more extreme contracts. It is pretty terrifying and people are going to get hurt.

There is a political dynamic in play. People will not say it but as soon as the words “reduction in house prices” people do a quick calculation in their head and see how much they would lose. This makes fundamental change very difficult.

The two ways of addressing it are on the table thought. Labour’s and Mana’s policies of mass new house construction will achieve a lot of good and a capital gains tax is way overdue.

But watch as personal greed clashes with community good …
- One Anonymous Knucklehead 3.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 9:01 am
  
  Won’t population growth (5M by 2026) offset a lot of the downward pressure on house prices?
  - ghostrider888 3.1.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 10:35 am
    
    this supply side issue could linger.
  - Draco T Bastard 3.1.2
    
    24 June 2013 at 11:58 am
    
    Not if the government builds enough homes. IMO, the government should ensure that there’s a 1 to 2 percent over supply of housing.
- King Kong 3.2
  
  24 June 2013 at 9:05 am
  
  I don’t think you can describe not wanting to have (what is most peoples) only major asset half in value, as greed.
  
  Vilifying hard working home owners like that is mental. I can see the John Ansell billboards now,
  National – Homeowner, Labour – C**t.
  - Colonial Viper 3.2.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 9:15 am
    
    Except home ownership is dropping like a rock right now, dickwad.
    
    PS a house is not a speculative investment asset, it’s just a roof over your head. Or at least, thats what it needs to go to.
    - King Kong 3.2.1.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 9:25 am
      
      Going after existing homeowners is sure to be electoral gold because they are so insignificant in number now. Now that is the plan of a dickwad.
      
      It is not necessarily speculative, but property is an investment…at least it is on this planet.
      - vto 3.2.1.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:27 am
        
        what’s your solution then ?
        
        to get housing to the internationally accepted affordable level.
        
        King Kong 3.2.1.1.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:35 am
        
        Personally I don’t think there is a problem as there is a good ammount of affordable housing available throughout the country.
        
        This tends to be more about young, first time buyers wanting stables and a boating lake on their new property but only wanting to pay entry price levels.
        
        Secondly, if there is a problem and houses are overvalued, then the market will sort it out.
        
        vto …
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:43 am
        
        “Personally I don’t think there is a problem as there is a good ammount of affordable housing available throughout the country.”
        
        I was asking what your solution to the problem is, not if there is a problem. i.e. “If X is a problem, how would you resolve it?”
        
        “Secondly, if there is a problem and houses are overvalued, then the market will sort it out.”
        
        Seriously KK, the market has completely failed to do this. Do you not see that?
        
        King Kong …
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:48 am
        
        No it hasn’t.
        
        The market will correct an over valuation but what it is telling you right now is that people are lining up in droves to hit the bid, so it is not over valued.
        
        vto …
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:50 am
        
        Show us the money kk
        
        Where is the supply of affordable housing to meet the demand for affordable housing?
        
        King Kong …
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:54 am
        
        I suggest you contact Bomber Bradbury if you need a real estate agent however I will give you a clue…its not quarter acre sections in central Auckland.
        
        vto …
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:56 am
        
        no answer
        
        Colonial Viper …
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:01 am
        
        KK’s answer is “trust in the free markets”
        
        What a dickwad
        
        King Kong …
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:06 am
        
        Certainly better than your solution of “trust in me and my benevolent lefty mates to dictate this shit”.
        
        vto …
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:14 am
        
        What, you mean like the original state housing scheme? That government failure?
        
        And you still haven’t provided any evidence to back up your own assertion. Waiting …..
        
        ghostrider888 …
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:37 am
        
        you forgot the golf-course and petting zoo.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        24 June 2013 at 12:06 pm
        
        Secondly, if there is a problem and houses are overvalued, then the market will sort it out.
        
        Something that the market has failed to do for at least two centuries.
      - BM 3.2.1.1.2
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:37 am
        
        Yep
        According to the 2006 census, over 1.5 million people in NZ own or partly own their own house.
        That’s a hell of a lot of voters to piss off.
        
        Colonial Viper 3.2.1.1.2.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:02 am
        
        Well you’ve captured the problem in a nutshell right there. Both Labour and National Govts have it in their short and medium term electoral interests to keep blowing the house price bubble up and up and up. Until the ‘pop’ is loud enough to shatter everyone’s eardrums.
        
        BM …
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:18 am
        
        House prices can be brought down all you do is increase supply and you achieve that freeing up land cutting consent costs etc and then getting out of the way
        It has to be done without direct government intervention, let the market sought its self out and within a few years you’ll find prices starting to tail off.
        
        The aim should be getting as many spec builders as possible jumping into the market and flooding it with houses.
        Greed and stupidity will sink house prices not government intervention
        
        Colonial Viper …
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:26 am
        
        Sadly, your method is designed to fail from the start, and to perpetuate unearned income gains by property and property development speculators.
        
        1) Changes made to make it clear that housing is not an investment asset as there will be no real price growth in houses going forwards.
        
        2) Private retail bank lending to be heavily constrained.
        
        3) Population growth in Auckland to be discouraged and shifted out to secondary centres like Hamilton.
        
        4) Speculative non occupier demand for houses to be crushed.
        
        BM …
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:32 am
        
        I disagree.
        You seem to think we live in a dictatorship where no one gets to vote.
        Any government that tried to put in place the policies you are proposing would be lucky to survive to the next election.
        You’ve got to be realistic and try to work within the constraints of the current system because it’s not changing anytime soon.
        
        Colonial Viper …
        
        24 June 2013 at 11:06 am
        
        If it’s not changing any time soon, why do I hear denial and fear in your voice?
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        24 June 2013 at 12:21 pm
        
        You’ve got to be realistic
        
        LOL
        
        What you’re suggesting is against reality.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        24 June 2013 at 12:20 pm
        
        House prices can be brought down all you do is increase supply and you achieve that freeing up land cutting consent costs etc and then getting out of the way
        
        Doing that will push the cost of living up and won’t actually bring the price of houses down. Driving the cost of living up will, without doubt, increase the amount of poverty in NZ. What you suggest will only benefit the land-banksters.
        
        It has to be done without direct government intervention, let the market sought its self out and within a few years you’ll find prices starting to tail off.
        
        The market is a social construct the regulations that the government set actually define it. Also, the market doesn’t work as the GFC just proved – again.
        
        BM …
        
        24 June 2013 at 12:33 pm
        
        Only because the US government stuck its oar in and fucked everything up.
        Should have just let everything crash and burn and then let things recover naturally.
        
        Bailing out businesses with tax payer money was dumb beyond belief.
        
        ghostrider888 …
        
        24 June 2013 at 12:36 pm
        
        that is an interesting concession of yours we must remember BM; “crash and burn”. Yep, the US and the troika have just insulated the straw house for a little while longer.
        
        Draco T Bastard …
        
        24 June 2013 at 12:47 pm
        
        Bailing out businesses with tax payer money was dumb beyond belief.
        
        The only thing dumber was being capitalist in the first place.
        
        ropata …
        
        24 June 2013 at 2:05 pm
        
        BM: we tried the “no regulations” approach and got leaky and cold untreated timber homes stapled together by dodgy operators who conveniently went out of business and left councils and homeowners with a $6 billion mess.
        
        Housing would have been more plentiful and cheaper if builders weren’t spending so much time fixing up crazy Art Deco flat roofed leakers up and down the country
        
        ropata …
        
        24 June 2013 at 2:05 pm
        
        BM: we tried the “no regulations” approach and got leaky and cold untreated timber homes stapled together by dodgy operators who conveniently went out of business and left councils and homeowners with a $6 billion mess.
        
        Housing would have been more plentiful and cheaper if builders weren’t spending so much time fixing up crazy Art Deco flat roofed leakers up and down the country
  - One Anonymous Knucklehead 3.2.2
    
    24 June 2013 at 9:16 am
    
    Reality check: property will not halve in value; but it won’t treble, either, and that’s the point.
    - Colonial Viper 3.2.2.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 10:03 am
      
      In Auckland, nominal house prices have trebled in just 20 years.
      - One Anonymous Knucklehead 3.2.2.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:37 am
        
        So there should be plenty of room to reduce the rate of increase without devaluing existing property.
  - gsays 3.2.3
    
    24 June 2013 at 9:17 am
    
    an interesting question: what is greed?
    
    i would suggest it is having more than your fair share.
    
    in order to have more than you fair share then someone else must go without.
    
    this is at the root of all our problems.
    
    till we can learn to simply share ( not barter, not trade ), we are screwed.
    - King Kong 3.2.3.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 9:28 am
      
      Why don’t we start with you sharing what you are smoking, with us.
      - Rosetinted 3.2.3.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:20 am
        
        KK
        Good little snipe. You’re buzzing today.
  - Draco T Bastard 3.2.4
    
    24 June 2013 at 12:00 pm
    
    The value hasn’t changed – just the price.
    
    Besides, the government could offer 0% interest loans so that the drop in price wouldn’t mean anything.
- Colonial Viper 3.3
  
  24 June 2013 at 9:15 am
  
  MS – I’m going to run Bernard Hickey’s line – it’s not supply which is the main problem in Auckland, it is demand. Whether it’s locals looking for a 5th investment flat, or overseas Australians, Europeans or Chinese coming here with cheap money looking for asset price growth.
  - mikesh 3.3.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 9:59 am
    
    It seems to me that rationing of purchases in designated “shortage” areas would make a lot of sense.
- vto 3.4
  
  24 June 2013 at 9:21 am
  
  This will melt down before the year’s out I reckon. It never melted down properly last time (post-GFC) and this will be a continuation of that previous meltdown.
  
  Politically, a bubble like this helps the incumbent government and vv a burst bubble harms them of course.
  
  Longer term, the ridiculous costs of building require a multi-faceted approach…
  
  Code and regs keep pushing requirments and costs up. Latest example – scaffold cf ladders = $4,000 per house.
  Government put GST up 2.5%
  Councils put up development contributions.
  Building supplies monopolies and duopolies such as cement. Total rort. Compare Aussie costs.
  Allowing foreigners to own our houses. Fucking dumb.
  Tax structures in NZ favaour making money via capital gains.
  Complete and utter failure of the ‘free market’ to supply a demand for affordable housing.
  Desire by every single government to get house prices rising due to its effect on voting patterns at general elections.
  Land supply limitations and controls (to a lesser extent than each of the above).
  ..
  
  on it goes.
  
  Muli-pronged. Some governments with big balls is needed to monster every single one of these issues all at once. But expect fight back from vested interests (banks and existing property owners).
  - Tim 3.4.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 5:58 pm
    
    “Building supplies monopolies and duopolies such as cement. Total rort. Compare Aussie costs.”
    Agree absolutely.
    I’m amazed there hasn’t been an inquiry into the costs of building supplies. I mean FFS! We grow radiata pine here in abundance.
    I recently had to do some essential repairs and based my estimate on costs from a previous project some years ago + a margin for inflation (or so I thought).
    I was out by a mile!
    Rort is exactly what it is
- AmaKiwi 3.5
  
  24 June 2013 at 9:46 am
  
  @ MickeySavage
  
  A mania is emotional, not rational.
  
  You’re absolutely right. When this real estate bubble bursts there will be widespread pain and blame.
  
  I have tried to convince friends to be cautious but it’s hopeless. Fear and greed are immune to reason.
  - Colonial Viper 3.5.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 10:07 am
    
    Yep, good friend has just leveraged to the hilt on his first home in Ellerslie this year. A real estate agent has said to him if he wanted to sell now he could walk away with $100K extra clean in capital gains. Except by the time he found another house he would likely be behind again…it’s madness.
    - vto 3.5.1.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 10:25 am
      
      Ha, yep you see that aint a gain at all is it. Unless your friend is going to step our of the housing market. This is the fallacy.
      
      Mind you its all good for the banks ……
      - Colonial Viper 3.5.1.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:28 am
        
        Well, you could step out of the Auckland housing market and move into the Bulls housing market…
geoff 4

24 June 2013 at 9:51 am

If Japan is anything to go by then it won’t be long until the money printing fires up again.

http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/japan-as-the-new-normal-living-in-a-constrained-economy/
- Colonial Viper 4.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 10:13 am
  
  Money printing is not going to help Japan now. They aren’t illiquid, they are insolvent. The Japanese Govt now owes 1 quadrillion yen. Currently 25% of their tax revenues are spent on paying the interest on government debt.
  
  Take a look at this – Kyle Bass has Japan nailed.
  - geoff 4.1.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 10:42 am
    
    Some great sound bites from that vid (so far):
    (Speaking about the Japanese government) “They’re spending more than twice what they make for 5 years in a row”
    - Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 11:08 am
      
      Japan has had 10 Finance Ministers in 5 years. That’s a bit of a clue there I reckon.
      - geoff 4.1.1.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 11:31 am
        
        So this Kyle Bass guy made his millions by shorting the sub-prime crisis. And now he runs a hedge fund and seems have a reputation as the guy who can pick when things are about to go belly up.
        
        What I find interesting about these kinds of guys, ie Bass, Max Keiser, etc who make lots of public statements about how such and such is going to go belly up, or gold is about to go through the roof etc, is that they seem to continually get it wrong.
        
        How many months did Keiser go on about the ‘paper apocalypse’ which, so far, hasn’t occurred? This Kyle Bass guy has been going on about Japan disintegrating since 2010 and yet still it hasn’t quite happened.
        
        I’m not saying I disagree with all of their analysis but you can’t help but roll your eyes a little when hear about the latest financial thing that is supposedly on the verge of imploding.
        
        Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 3:30 pm
        
        Bass is a fiduciary and he successfully looked after the interests of his investors.
        
        Yes, Max Keiser has underestimated how long the powers that be can keep kicking the can down the road for.
        
        But you need to bear in mind a few things: for tens of millions of Americans who can no longer retire in the comfort they thought because their pension funds have been wiped out, financial armageddon has already come. For the tens of millions of Americans who have already suffered a home foreclosure, financial armageddon has already come. For the hundreds of thousands of Greek and Spanish small business owners who have closed down in the last few years, financial armageddon has already come.
        
        And for the rest of us, we’ve been saddled with massive debts directly and indirectly to pay for the rescue of insolvent financial institutions and banks.
        
        What I’m saying is this: shit hasn’t collapsed for most people in NZ yet, but let’s not ignore the fact that it’s definitely already happened to many and it is rolling around the world.
        
        Michael Burry on how he hated making millions from the subprime crisis:
        
        as for Japan – Bass says you can’t argue with the numbers. Japan is insolvent. The only variable now is the psychology of the market participants, and how long they will go along with kicking the can down the road. 10 finance ministers in 5 years. That says something.
        
        geoff …
        
        24 June 2013 at 4:01 pm
        
        No argument from me on lots of those points. You’ve said it well with your ‘kicking the can down the road’ line in reference to Keiser but I can’t help but lump all the other predictions that are shorting the system, such as Bass’s, in with that analogy.
        
        Let’s assume that the main beneficiaries of the global economy have strong common interests and that if something as large as the Japanese economy collapses then they will all suffer (c.f the GFC). If that were the case then I think they would all work very hard together to stop that from happening.
        
        Remember it’s just a made up system, it isn’t like the laws of physics, so if the powers that be feel the need to change the rules for their own survival then they will simply change the rules.
        
        Colonial Viper …
        
        24 June 2013 at 6:08 pm
        
        if something as large as the Japanese economy collapses then they will all suffer (c.f the GFC). If that were the case then I think they would all work very hard together to stop that from happening.
        
        Normally, yes. If all the other members of the G20 or the OECD were in rude financial health, with surpluses and reserves to spare.
        
        But now, that is not the reality. I think we will find that national self interest, not systemic interest, is suddenly going to become more prominent.
        
        geoff …
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:05 pm
        
        Nah, national self interest doesn’t exist, CV. Multinational corps rule and they’ll do as they please.
        
        Colonial Viper …
        
        24 June 2013 at 9:35 pm
        
        Mostly true, although in reality it’s a few thousand corporate board members and institutional fund leaders (I suggest fewer than 10,000 people in total) who are in charge
- ghostrider888 4.2
  
  24 June 2013 at 11:56 am
  
  “Reluctant to spend that money at home” in Japan
  http://www.ibtimes.com/japanese-foreign-direct-investment-fdi-japan-inc-seeking-growth-abroad-1318357
  promoting foreign direct-investment, hollowing out the domestic economy.
ghostrider888 5

24 June 2013 at 10:48 am

and, moving Right along to the asset sales programme;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10892418
“Prospects Gloomy” (otherwise fine in the bay)
-“MRP won’t pass $2.50 in next 12 months suggest 3 / 5 broker analysts”
-“difficulties facing the float of Meridian and Genesis now even greater” even.

Yeaup yeaup yeaup
Jimmie 6

24 June 2013 at 10:51 am

Right so we can add ‘drought causer’ to the list of John Key’s sins.

It could probably slot right in between ‘child eater’ and ‘rich prick’.

Never mind that when Key has a policy of promoting the building of water storage dams to negate the effect of droughts he is dammed as a rich prick and out to help his rich farmer mates.

Stupid is as stupid does.
- One Anonymous Knucklehead 6.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 11:01 am
  
  John Key has a policy of building dams? He’s keeping damned quiet about it.
  
  New Zealand history shows that all Labour led governments have managed the economy better than your pack of clowns. Get over it.
  
  PS: now I get it; Key wants to sell the dams, not build them, you goose.
  - Jimmie 6.1.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 11:17 am
    
    Um Knucklenhead you dodo take off your one eyed blinker for a second and read the following link.
    
    http://www.national.org.nz/PDF_General/Primary_Sector_policy_.pdf
    
    I said water storage dams – helps promote irrigation use during dry summers – negates the effect of extended summer dry periods. Hard for Key to sell them when they are built yet.
    
    In regards to your comment about Labour led governments I assume that you fully support Roger Douglas’s reforms in the 1980’s then?
    - One Anonymous Knucklehead 6.1.1.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 11:51 am
      
      Really? Well I suggest you stop making an ass of yourself then.
      
      Anyway, regarding the National Party’s ~~water policy~~ plan to give handouts to farmers, do you know how much they charged their clients in the farming sector for it?
    - Te Reo Putake 6.1.1.2
      
      24 June 2013 at 11:54 am
      
      Tired old link, Jimmie. If only they were committed to doing something about it in a timely manner. Last I heard, they’d put a few million aside to do the investigation work, hire a few of their cronies, etc. but no actual earthworks. I guess they just aspirational.
    - Kevin Welsh 6.1.1.3
      
      24 June 2013 at 2:00 pm
      
      Considering we are told that there is a dearth of great investment opportunities in NZ, here is the perfect vehicle for the well-heeled Jimmie. Time for farmers and the wealthy to put their money where their mouths are and invest in the likes of the Ruataniwha dam scheme… but we know they won’t when there is the perennial sucker called the tax payer waiting to front the cash and take the risk.
      - ghostrider888 6.1.1.3.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 2:21 pm
        
        Yep, running around looking for other investors, including the ratepayer, kinda like flying choppers in to free snow-bound stock at a $1000+ an hour while pleading for volunteer assistance to save their wooly assets.
  - Melb 6.1.2
    
    24 June 2013 at 2:31 pm
    
    Including in the run up to that 1990 election where they lied about the state of the government books?
Winston Smith 7

24 June 2013 at 11:40 am

This is not good for Labour…

The best the left can come up with is the economy not growing as quickly as expected (so its growing) even though NZs doing a lot better than most

So your secret weapon is Bernard Hickey…better than Shearer I suppose
- One Anonymous Knucklehead 7.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 11:45 am
  
  Yes, that’s the best. Unless you count NZ Power. And Kiwibuild. And closing charter schools. And abolishing National Standards, and returning some balance to employment law.
  
  There’s probably a few other things besides, so yes, I expect we can safely say that pointing out how shit the National Party is is about the tenth best thing or so. But you were close.
- ghostrider888 7.2
  
  24 June 2013 at 12:33 pm
  
  …and Brian Fallow, Brian Easton, Shamubeel Eaqub, Colin James, Kim Hill, Bryce Edwards…
Richard Down South 8

24 June 2013 at 12:27 pm

A free market doesn’t supply what’s needed, it supplies whats PROFITABLE
- vto 8.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 12:51 pm
  
  And therein lies one of many of its flaws.
  
  Lordy knows why people think the free market can solve everything. Whatever happenned to roger dougal, richard puddle, don crash, rodney don’t hide amd david farrart……….. why don’t they come out and explain where their theories have gone all awry?
  - Colonial Viper 8.1.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 9:32 pm
    
    Well the simple fact is that there’s too much regulation and taxes are still too high, so if we were to get rid of just a bit more, we’d reach FMU (Free Market Utopia)
Matthew Hooton 9

24 June 2013 at 12:28 pm

Very disappointing GDP data, you are absolutely right. Only a bit over 1.8% for the six months to 31 March.

May tourism stats look good though: http://m.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/IntTravelAndMigration_MRMay13.aspx. The minister must be doing a good job. Hopefully Q2 2013 GDP will be much better than Q1 2013 partly as a result.
- Arfamo 9.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 12:33 pm
  
  May tourism stats look good though: The minister must be doing a good job.
  
  How does that follow?
  - Matthew Hooton 9.1.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 12:39 pm
    
    I was being ironic and baiting you. I don’t think ministers of particular industries do all that much to drive extra demand. But if anyone here wants to blame ministers for negative developments in their portfolio sectors, then obviously you must acknowledge the minister’s “success” in this case. Here’s to Mr Key, surely contributors here should be saying.
    - ghostrider888 9.1.1.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 12:44 pm
      
      thats some chum!
    - Te Reo Putake 9.1.1.2
      
      24 June 2013 at 1:01 pm
      
      “But if anyone here wants to blame ministers for negative developments in their portfolio sectors, then obviously you must acknowledge the minister’s “success” in this case.”
      
      Only where the success/failure can be directly linked to the Minister concerned.
      
      And don’t call me surely.
    - Arfamo 9.1.1.3
      
      24 June 2013 at 1:03 pm
      
      I was being ironic and baiting you.
      
      Fair enough. You may be baiting someone, but not me. I’m just following the debate.
- ghostrider888 9.2
  
  24 June 2013 at 12:38 pm
  
  looking to change paymasters Matthew?
  - Matthew Hooton 9.2.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 12:44 pm
    
    Strangely, I have this policy of saying, when GDP growth is strong, that that is good for the govt and, when GDP growth is weak or negative, that that is bad for the govt. There are no “paymasters”.
    - ghostrider888 9.2.1.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 12:54 pm
      
      Bet, you’ve heard this song reflected upon in many a bar, from student beer-palace, to broad sports-bar to boutique cock-tail club;
      
      “You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em
      Know when to walk away and know when to run.
      You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table.
      There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.
      
      Now Ev’ry gambler knows, that the secret to survivin’
      Is knowin’ what to throw away and knowin’ what to keep.”
      
      Kind Recards.
      - Winston Smith 9.2.1.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 3:32 pm
        
        Do you mean this?
        
        Rob 9.2.1.1.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 3:49 pm
        
        My eye’s, my eye’s….wait …… my ears , my ears….
        
        ghostrider888 9.2.1.1.1.2
        
        24 June 2013 at 5:44 pm
        
        that is very cleverly funny.
    - KJT 9.2.1.2
      
      24 June 2013 at 1:41 pm
      
      Good spin Hoots (With laughter).
      
      Spin all you like, but the fact is in NZ history the more right wing the Government the lower the economic growth. 30% less GDP growth under right wing governments, on average.
      
      They cannot even do well by their own favourite measurements.
      
      Of course by almost any other measure, National, is, a national disaster!
      
      And. Without the “hospital pass”, for National, of Christchurch reconstruction, migration, Auckland housing booms and artificially high interest rates attracting offshore loan money. GDP growth would be well into the negative.
- felix 9.3
  
  24 June 2013 at 10:36 pm
  
  Bahahaha Hooton you’re such a retard.
  
  Do you seriously think anyone is going to fall for you suddenly measuring in 6 month increments?
  
  Quarters, dick.
Adrian 10

24 June 2013 at 12:29 pm

My understanding is that the CHCH rebuild growth contribution was greater than the .03% which would make negative growth for the last however long. Mike King today in an analysis of Chch byelection reckoned 12000 at one stage had left there for Auckland, as some are now getting their payout it would be nice to see some research to see how much this influx is having on demand.
- vto 10.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 12:48 pm
  
  Exactly Adrian.
  
  Strip away the Christchurch rebuild (which is a bloody broken-window situation anyway) and the economy will surely have shrunk.
  - Winston Smith 10.1.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 3:37 pm
    
    That maybe but the point is it hasn’t shrunk…
    
    You lefties like to make excuses rather than face up to your failings:
    
    “Nationals only popular because: A John Key B MSM C Money from business owners D people are sheple”
    
    Way not face up to the major issues in your own parties, fix them and give NZ a credible opposition and stop making excuses
    - ghostrider888 10.1.1.1
      
      24 June 2013 at 5:45 pm
      
      you be preaching to the converted.
    - Pascal's bookie 10.1.1.2
      
      24 June 2013 at 6:58 pm
      
      How was vto ‘making excuses’?
      
      Excuses for what?
      
      The problem with you righties is that you make no damn sense at all.
      
      The fact is that rebuilding chch is adding a few points to the gdp figures, unless we have a city destroying earthquake every few years then it’s not really a sustainable f=growth plan. English said he was going to rebalance the economy. When he going to do that/ The tax changes were supposed to do the trick. But they didn’t.
      
      English also used to talk about the fact that the property boom under labour created a ‘fake economy’ and that the jobs weren’t ‘real’. He’s not saying that now that property is ranking up again is he? But at least under Labour there were jobs.
      - Rosetinted 10.1.1.2.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:14 pm
        
        Apparently a unit in the middle of a block, valued at about $350,000, went for near $700,000 in Auckland not long ago. This is total hearsay. Apparently also people are just about crying when they go to auctions of places that they expect to be within their reach.
        
        vto 10.1.1.2.1.1
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:25 pm
        
        if so then that means it has reached a more absurd point than ever seen before
        
        which means ……….
        
        Armchair Critic …
        
        24 June 2013 at 10:52 pm
        
        “double, double toil and trouble, fire burn and cauldron bubble”?
  - Colonial Viper 10.1.2
    
    24 June 2013 at 3:54 pm
    
    Remember: along with debt levels, GDP per capita is the important measure
ghostrider888 11

24 June 2013 at 12:59 pm

“Chinese economy in free-fall” (relative)
http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-economy-free-fall-manufacturing-contracts-again-shibor-climbs-higher-1315953
while the SHIBOR climbs. hmmm. How those trade-winds turn.
- Colonial Viper 11.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 9:28 pm
  
  thank goodness we haven’t been relying on shit tonnes of coal and iron ore exports to China to support our economy. This slow down might cause us real trouble otherwise. Oh wait…
ghostrider888 12

24 June 2013 at 1:24 pm

“Developed economies ‘steady’, emerging markets disappoint”
http://www.ibtimes.com/global-economic-growth-modest-emerging-markets-disappoint-developed-economies-hold-steady-barclays
Get thee to Malaysia, or Mexico and the Phillipines.
Poission 13

24 June 2013 at 2:10 pm

now lets see since the GFC the loan servicing ( interest) of household debt has decreased by around 4.5 billion a year, and still GDP is in the 3 sigma error range,It is time for either the RB or treasury to provide some simplistic reasons.
[Bunji: fixed typo in name]
Mark 14

24 June 2013 at 9:11 pm

The cost of building a house in Nz is so far over the top that there has to be price fixing somewhere in the chain. I am in Perth at the moment on business and for $175,000 numerous home building companies will build you a new house with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, double garage, landscaped and fully furnished on your section. Real eye opener compared to Nz. Land and house packages start at $280,000 and they are really nice. Something is rotten in the Nz housing market.
Mark 15

24 June 2013 at 9:11 pm

The cost of building a house in Nz is so far over the top that there has to be price fixing somewhere in the chain. I am in Perth at the moment on business and for $175,000 numerous home building companies will build you a new house with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, double garage, landscaped and fully furnished on your section. Real eye opener compared to Nz. Land and house packages start at $280,000 and they are really nice. Something is rotten in the Nz housing market.
- infused 15.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 9:32 pm
  
  Because realestate in aussie (minus mining towns) is crashing, and has been for the last two+ years.
  - Colonial Viper 15.1.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 10:43 pm
    
    Sounds like it’s what we need here then.
Mark 16

24 June 2013 at 9:11 pm

The cost of building a house in Nz is so far over the top that there has to be price fixing somewhere in the chain. I am in Perth at the moment on business and for $175,000 numerous home building companies will build you a new house with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, double garage, landscaped and fully furnished on your section. Real eye opener compared to Nz. Land and house packages start at $280,000 and they are really nice. Something is rotten in the Nz housing market.
vto 17

24 June 2013 at 9:15 pm

The cost of building a house in Nz is so far over the top that there has to be price fixing somewhere in the chain. I am in Perth at the moment on business and for $175,000 numerous home building companies will build you a new house with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, double garage, landscaped and fully furnished on your section. Real eye opener compared to Nz. Land and house packages start at $280,000 and they are really nice. Something is rotten in the Nz housing market.
vto 18

24 June 2013 at 9:17 pm

The cost of building a house in Nz is so far over the top that there has to be price fixing somewhere in the chain. I am in Perth at the moment on business and for $175,000 numerous home building companies will build you a new house with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, double garage, landscaped and fully furnished on your section. Real eye opener compared to Nz. Land and house packages start at $280,000 and they are really nice. Something is rotten in the Nz housing market..
vto 19

24 June 2013 at 9:18 pm

The cost of building a house in Nz is so far over the top that there has to be price fixing somewhere in the chain. I am in Perth at the moment on business and for $175,000 numerous home building companies will build you a new house with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, double garage, landscaped and fully furnished on your section. Real eye opener compared to Nz. Land and house packages start at $280,000 and they are really nice. Something is rotten in the Nz housing market…
- Colonial Viper 19.1
  
  24 June 2013 at 9:22 pm
  
  I believe the classical term for it is “rape and pillage”
  
  However do take into account that NZ workers are paid much more than their Aussie construction counterparts. Oh wait…
  - vto 19.1.1
    
    24 June 2013 at 9:42 pm
    
    hmmmpphh… we will only know after it’s been raped and pillaged
    
    one must take ones own comfort ….
Whatever next 20

25 June 2013 at 10:27 pm

Yep, ” cooking the books” and a ” shiter future”