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Ardern effect taps pent-up mood for change

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, August 7th, 2017 - 49 comments
Categories: election 2017, jacinda ardern, labour - Tags: , , , ,

The crowds are turning out for Jacinda Ardern.

The media coverage is enthusiastic.

The social media stats are through the roof.

The donations are still rolling in ($400k and counting).

A week is a long time in politics, as the saying goes. The election has been turned upside down.

A change like this can’t be down to just one person, no matter how vibrant. The spark needs fuel, there had to be a long pent-up mood for change, waiting to be tapped. That mood has found its champion.


Some of the weekend coverage and highlights:
Lizzie Marvelly: Jacinda Ardern is ready – is New Zealand?
Audrey Young: In one short week National looks like the underdog
‘Jacinda Mania is in full effect’ – New Labour leader gets warm welcome for transport speech (video)
Heather du Plessis-Allan: Five things Jacinda needs to do to win
Hundreds mob new Labour leader Jacinda Ardern at her first big policy reveal
Nadine Higgins: Jacinda Ardern helped me get outside my silo – at least for a while
David Slack: Elections, better than reality TV – almost (check out the caravan!)


https://twitter.com/andykirton/status/893655489292124160


https://twitter.com/andykirton/status/894004580312268800



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49 comments on “Ardern effect taps pent-up mood for change ”

  1. Sanctuary 1

    A wobbly blancmange of change suddenly found the source of extra gelatin.

    Actually that is a terrible metaphor.

  2. Sanctuary 2

    I must say, the splutterings of Farrar is hilarious. He sounds like a grumpy old man who is furious the parents of the children who kicked the ball onto his front lawn don’t share his sense of entitled outrage.

    • Anne 2.1

      Being a polling professional he must know whats going on out there in voter land. 🙂

  3. esoteric pineapples 3

    The Green Party must be feeling a bit like Jan in The Brady Bunch film where she suggests the family enter a singing contest for $20,000 to save their house and is totally ignored. Two days later Marcia suggests the same thing and everyone thinks its a great idea.

    “Am I invisible? Do I not have a voice? I had that idea two days ago.It was my idea. Mine. Didn’t anyone hear me?” Then a voice in her head says “I heard you” and another says “Me too. But is sounded better coming from Macia.”

    Starts at 3.55 on video below

    • Ad 3.1

      That was definitely how Julie-Ann Genter was looking at the Labour transport launch yesterday afternoon.

      • Carolyn_nth 3.1.1

        Projection.

      • /agreed

        I was looking at Labour’s announcement as was thinking Isn’t this what the Greens promised?

        • Carolyn_nth 3.1.2.1

          Greens led the conversation on such policies for a long time. That now National and Labour are jumping on board to a greater or lesser extent seems like a success for the GP, IMO

          • Draco T Bastard 3.1.2.1.1

            Yes but why does it only get traction when Labour or National start promising the same things that the Greens have been promising for years? Is it because the MSM instantly denigrates anything that the Greens say? Is it because people don’t trust the Greens? or is it because people just don’t know the Greens policies?

            • Carolyn_nth 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Maybe a bit of each of those things. But, it’s difficult situation. It has a lot to do with middle class neoliberal capture of public discourse, inside and outside the MSM.

              The panel on Q & A yesterday seemed selected to include only people who did not support the Green Party, for instance.

              It will need a ground swell of GP and other left support, outside the MSM to shift the dominant discourse.

              Trying to get media attention by appeasing the currently dominant values, means the battle can be won, but the long term war lost.

              OTOH, I think the GP presence in the House has meant some of their ideas have been presented publicly, and have gradually become more mainstream.

            • McFlock 3.1.2.1.1.2

              It’s probably more because nats or lab proposing something makes it more likely that the proposal will be introduced.

              Although, to qualify the above, that was the case in the days when lab were in the mid thirties and people thought that the nats announcing something meant that it would happen on schedule, rather than being reannounced two or three times before work started.

            • Pat 3.1.2.1.1.3

              suspect its more a case of the ‘general public” don’t expect the Greens to be in a position to deliver….whereas Labour/ National…..

        • Sanctuary 3.1.2.2

          Many a Green is familiar with a muscular socialist mowing their lawn, as it were.

      • Kevin 3.1.3

        I don’t care who announces it the CFN is nothing short of fucking transformational. This is a huge call for Auckland.

  4. adam 4

    Like the French and Canadians if this is what the so called left have to offer… Then the beige revolution rolls on.

      • adam 4.1.1

        That the thing with turds no matter how much you shine them, they still turds.

        • red-blooded 4.1.1.1

          Well, that’s a shitty comment!

          If you want any chance for a left-based government, put your focus on endorsing and arguing for the party you plan to vote for without shitting all over the most possible coalition partner. If you don’t want to vote Labour, don’t – I’m sure the Greens will be happy to take your vote. Please note, though, you don’t see many Labour supporters on this site pulling down the Greens. I wish I could say that worked both ways.

          Maybe I’m making assumptions, maybe you don’t plan to vote, or have some other party in mind. Either way, my basic message holds.

          • Carolyn_nth 4.1.1.1.1

            Please note, though, you don’t see many Labour supporters on this site pulling down the Greens.

            maybe you could make the same comments to ad above?

            He’s made the same kind of snide digs at the GP and Genter more than once in the last 24 hours.

            • red-blooded 4.1.1.1.1.1

              If he’d called anyone a turd, I’d have called him on it. The comment above just seems to me to agree with the idea that the Greens have a very similar Auckland transport policy. I don’t see anything offensive about that.

              If that’s your strongest example, it sort of reinforces my point. How about we try to be a bit more respectful of each others’ parties, in the spirit of the MOU? I’ve made this call lots of times, including in discussions with you, Carolyn_nth. It’s in the spirit of the post weka put up yesterday, about discussing our ideas without attacking each other.

              • Carolyn_nth

                Oh. So ad used respectful kind of language?! Seriously! Ad is gloatingly putting down the GP and Genter – in a quite disparaging way – projecting his own idea of what Genter looked like – I doubt she looked anything like he said.

                OK, here’s an idea – said in very neutral kind of language.

                Interesting that Ardern worked in Tony Blair’s office for a year or two, because, to me, her rise to power, and politics, and MSM cut through, are very similar to that of Tony Blair.

                • red-blooded

                  Fine – I have no problem with that. Tony Blair was the PM at the time she was in London and – shock! horror! – Ardern worked for his government. It’s my understanding that she was involved in a review of policing in England and Wales, and some kind of small business unit as well. There may be other stuff, too. She was also president of the International Union of Socialist Youth. Somehow that didn’t make it into your comment..?

                  It’d still be refreshing to see you arguing positively for why you support the party that you do, rather than bagging one that you don’t (but that your party needs, in order to have a chance to form part of a government).

                  • Carolyn_nth

                    My primary allegiance is to left values, rather than to any party long term. Ardern’s Labour does not seem to me to support very left wing policies or values. Particularly I am watching the policies and supporting narrative around beneficiaries, welfare and public services.

                    I think the underlying narrative and values of a party are as important as specific policies at the time of an election. Policies can change during the course of a government. The underlying values and narratives that are supported, give an indication what a government will do when unexpected events and circumstances arise in the course of a government.

                    Before I learned Ardern had worked in Blair’s office, I had already begun to see her as NZ’s Blair. And that, I believe, she supported PPPs.

                    I was living in the UK when Blair came to prominence – same as Ardern, he was the darling of the centrist, liberal middle-classes and media. Blair was seen as the new hope for UK Labour (I did get carried along with that) – and this turned out badly for the UK left generally. Thatcher saw his tenure as PM as a victory for her impact on politics. Blair demolished democracy in the UK Labour party, and it became more dictated from the top management.

                    Friends and many others in the UK left the Labour party as a result. Then after Blair, UK Labour was clearly weakened. The left is still trying to recover in the UK several years on.

                    See the Political Scientist’s post linked in today’s open mike for a full explanation of why I see Ardern has already shown she is not a strong candidate for left wing values.

                    I fear, Ardern’s Labour will win the election, but it will weaken left wing values, policies and organisations in the long term.

                    That is why I want to see a strong presence in parliament for a party to the left of Ardern’s Labour.

                    I will be looking closely at Labour policies and narratives. So far, I see Ardern and Davis leaning right, throwing Turei, and beneficiaries under the bus, and rising through neoliberal style, celebrity culture media and social media.

                    • Kat

                      Reality is this country will never elect a far left party to govt just as it will never elect a far right party to govt. Skulk on the fringes if you must but what “Ardern’s Labour” stands for is the closest the left will ever be accepted electorally in New Zealand.

                    • adam

                      Come on Kat – why don’t you call us all communists or the alt-left and be done with it?

                      We live under a pretty far right government, labour are not left wing, if left wing is socialism. Socialism is a broad church, but labour is not in that church, it is a party of liberalism, which by definition is not left.

                      So to call people who want socialism on the fringes and extreme is playing right into Tory hands, well done Kat, well done.

                    • Carolyn_nth

                      ah, Kat. that’s so defeatist. NZ is tending to be far more to the right than it used to be – but things can change.

                      I wouldn’t call my views far left – just left. But if you want to call names to the desire for a society that cares for all it’s people, and doesn’t demonise those in difficult circumstances, that enables all to thrive – names intended to smear – then those names will be worn proudly.

          • Rosemary McDonald 4.1.1.1.2

            “If you want any chance for a left-based government,….”

            We need truly, genuinely left candidates.

            You seem to think, red-blooded, that if Labour fails it will be the fault of left leaning voters failing to support The Party, rather than The Party failing to convince left leaning voters that they, The Party, are genuinely left.

            🙂 😉 🙂

            • red-blooded 4.1.1.1.2.1

              Please don’t tell me what I think, RM. I’ve said pretty clearly many times that Labour needs to convince voters who’ve drifted away to the middle or even to National. Left voters have more than one choice and I’m fine with people choosing to vote Green. I don’t see that as a ‘fault” (in your words). We simply don’t have enough hard left voters to actually elect a government, though – for that, we need softer left-leaners and swing voters. That’s just the truth of the matter. And maybe the resulting government won’t be left enough for you, but it will (if given a chance) be working to redress the urgent human and environmental issues our country faces and it sure as hell won’t be making things worse, as National and its cronies have in their time.

              • adam

                What wrong with ‘you seem’, that’s not telling anyone how to think precious/red-blooded. Indeed when most statements begin ‘you seem’ imply a question, or you are leaning towards -can you confirm that – type of statement.

                But that said, I’m not a green, never have been – never will be.

                And labour are rip for being a target – look at them, left leaning my right buttock cheek. The are unabashedly enthralled with liberalism as an ideology.

                Now in the interests of working people, I calling that a waste of time, as so many of the original labour party MP’s knew. To recycle a out of date, and deeply flawed ideology – then call it left, is the height of dishonesty. That alone I think that would put people off voting for labour.

                But then labour supports of late seem to ignore reality quite well, and spin as well as their brethren in the national party. Why do so many of you not understand the criticism of labour at a ideological level? Does it take to much brain power or somthing?

                As for not left enough, yeah I like my left to actually be socialist. In any guise – of which there are many. At this point I’d even take a Fabian version of the labour party, over this deeply flawed liberalism version.

          • NewsFlash 4.1.1.1.3

            +1

            There are too many Green supporters who don’t realise that without Labour there is no way they will CHANGE THE GOVENMENT.

            I vote to change the GOVT.

            • adam 4.1.1.1.3.1

              But a change of government won’t help if they the same beige revolutionaries. And as it stands, labour are the same beige revolutionaries.

  5. Doogs 5

    Faison cela, aussi faison-le maintenant.

  6. A change like this can’t be down to just one person, no matter how vibrant. The spark needs fuel, there had to be a long pent-up mood for change, waiting to be tapped.

    We saw that with Metiria’s confession and the surge that the Greens got. Of course, the MSM then attacked the Greens instead of feting her like they have with Jacinda.

    Which triggers my well built scepticism of the MSM and wonders why they’ve chosen to crown Jacinda.

    • dukeofurl 6.1

      Because they reflect the views of their listeners- thats a bit shallow but essentailly thats it.

      Oh and I forgot- celebrityism is big with media, female celebs are always news

      Any way they can to add a bit of glitter to a topic, sport has its own celebritys, show business has nothing but the lastest and even failing celebs.
      They reckon to get more readers on a politics story push the celebrity angle.

      • NewsFlash 6.1.1

        Misogynist views, Ardern deserves to measured on her skills and experience, not sexist remarks from men, did you ever think that perhaps voters are a little more intelligent than what you give them credit for.

        Ardern has been around for longer than Meteria, and is widely respected for the Unionist work for which she pursued, give credit where credit is deserved.

        Let’s change the Govt………….

  7. Peter 7

    For those on the Left why not enjoy the moment and avoid the temptation to make petty comments against the Right in this forum?

  8. lurgee 8

    It will certainly be interesting to see where the polls are at.

    Crucial question isn’t whether Ardern can take votes from the Greens and NZ First – she almost certainly will, as I think both are ‘over-valued’ – but if she’ll manage to bring in non-voters or National voters. Swapping votes between likely coalition partners isn’t making up ground.

    Lab + Grn at 40% = failure.

    Lab + Grn at 45% = something a bit like success. But where does that 5% come from. Will 5% of National voters really switch just because Little’s gone and Ardern is momentarily be-liked by the media?

    Ho hum. I really wish I didn’t feel so pessimistic about it all. But I am Scottish and Eeyore was always my favourite character in Winnie the Pooh.

  9. Maxwell Mer 9

    National is like shop front manequin from the 1960’s. They have kept our wages low by massive immigration: Ask yourself when did you get a wage rise in their rock star economy. Its time for change-its our chance. Dullards in blue.

    • Booooo National !!!

      We need a few more like Jim Anderton back . They would sort all this out. A big dose of good old fashioned social democratic nationalism with a regulated economy and the Reserve Bank back under direct govt control. That’s what we need. Well , if we play our cards right , we may just get a new govt that opens the door slightly for a few more policy’s like that to shine on through.

      Therefore, we work with what we have atm. Onward’s and upwards and lets get the Greens and Labour in govt ! And National out !

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