In her blog column Teresa Arseneau discusses the polls overall, and what happens if the largest party doesn’t form the government:
Several of these polls suggest that while National is likely to “win” the election – receive both the most votes and seats – it may not govern….But in an MMP election it is important to think in terms of party-blocs. And the source of a vote gain is as important as the gain itself. In the 2005 election, National grew its vote mainly at the expense of its potential partners – Act, UnitedFuture and New Zealand First – thus consolidating the centre-right vote. This partly explains why National’s support is now so large and why its potential coalition partners’ so small.
It is misleading then to simply compare the support of National and Labour. A more accurate picture is gained by looking at the relative support for potential governing blocs….The election is finely balanced between the two blocs.
The next week is crucial: one in four voters is still likely undecided. And support for the two blocs is so finely balanced that changes of less than 1% to each party’s vote, changes much smaller than the margin of error, could significantly alter the outcome of the election.
This time next week we’ll be into the final moments – and then it’s up to the voter. Centre right or Centre left?