Some polls have National below 40%. If that is reflected in the election result then National is in trouble. See this excellent piece by Simon Wilson in The Spinoff:
If Labour and National both get 40%, who gets into parliament?
- All 28 MPs standing for re-election would be returned. The lineup is here.
- The new MPs (in list order) would be Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Jan Tinetti, Willow Jean Prime, Kiri Allan, Willie Jackson, Ginny Andersen, Jo Luxton, Deborah Russell, Liz Craig, Marja Lubeck, Paul Eagle, Tamati Coffey, Jamie Strange, Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki, Kieran McAnulty, Angie Warren-Clark, Helen White, Greg O’Connor, Steph Lewis, Duncan Webb, Lemauga Lydia Sosene, Janette Walker.
- The caucus would have 25 women and 25 men. About 60% of it would be Pākehā.
- If it does better than 40%, start adding these names: Anna Lorck, Romy Udanga, Rachel Boyack, Sarb Johal, Naisi Chen, Shanan Halbert. That crop adds considerably to the ethnic diversity of the caucus. Romy Udanga (ranked 47) is competing with National’s Paulo Garcia (ranked 50) to be the first Philippines-born New Zealand MP.
- The top 40 names on the list, all of whom are MPs now, would be returned. The full list is here.
- The caucus would have 36 men and 14 women. About 80% of it would be Pākehā.
- MPs to lose their place in parliament would be: Sarah Dowie, Nuk Korako, Maureen Pugh and Shane Reti (if he were to get beaten by NZ First’s Shane Jones in Whangarei).
- List MPs who would lose their seats if the vote was lower than 40% are (starting with the most at risk): Chris Bishop, Jo Hayes, Parmjeet Parmar, Jian Yang, Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, Melissa Lee, Brett Hudson. If National dips even a few points under 40% it will lost almost all its ethnic diversity.
Read on in the full piece for plenty more and a discussion of the Greens. But the take home message is that National’s current list was constructed for the “pale stale male”. A result like this would set back diversity in the party for many years. They need to be better balanced in the future.