Below 40% National loses its diversity

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, September 11th, 2017 - 26 comments
Categories: election 2017, labour, national, same old national - Tags: , , ,

Some polls have National below 40%. If that is reflected in the election result then National is in trouble. See this excellent piece by Simon Wilson in The Spinoff:
If Labour and National both get 40%, who gets into parliament?


  • All 28 MPs standing for re-election would be returned. The lineup is here.
  • The new MPs (in list order) would be Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Jan Tinetti, Willow Jean Prime, Kiri Allan, Willie Jackson, Ginny Andersen, Jo Luxton, Deborah Russell, Liz Craig, Marja Lubeck, Paul Eagle, Tamati Coffey, Jamie Strange, Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki, Kieran McAnulty, Angie Warren-Clark, Helen White, Greg O’Connor, Steph Lewis, Duncan Webb, Lemauga Lydia Sosene, Janette Walker.
  • The caucus would have 25 women and 25 men. About 60% of it would be Pākehā.
  • If it does better than 40%, start adding these names: Anna Lorck, Romy Udanga, Rachel Boyack, Sarb Johal, Naisi Chen, Shanan Halbert. That crop adds considerably to the ethnic diversity of the caucus. Romy Udanga (ranked 47) is competing with National’s Paulo Garcia (ranked 50) to be the first Philippines-born New Zealand MP.


  • The top 40 names on the list, all of whom are MPs now, would be returned. The full list is here.
  • The caucus would have 36 men and 14 women. About 80% of it would be Pākehā.
  • MPs to lose their place in parliament would be: Sarah Dowie, Nuk Korako, Maureen Pugh and Shane Reti (if he were to get beaten by NZ First’s Shane Jones in Whangarei).
  • List MPs who would lose their seats if the vote was lower than 40% are (starting with the most at risk): Chris Bishop, Jo Hayes, Parmjeet Parmar, Jian Yang, Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, Melissa Lee, Brett Hudson. If National dips even a few points under 40% it will lost almost all its ethnic diversity.

Read on in the full piece for plenty more and a discussion of the Greens. But the take home message is that National’s current list was constructed for the “pale stale male”. A result like this would set back diversity in the party for many years. They need to be better balanced in the future.

26 comments on “Below 40% National loses its diversity”

  1. ScottGN 1

    He’s made one mistake as far as I can see. Sarah Dowie is the constituency MP for Invercargill and will be re-elected.

    • Robert Guyton 1.1

      There’s every chance Dowie will lose to Dr Liz Craig.

      • ScottGN 1.1.1

        That would be awesome Robert.

      • Heather Grimwood 1.1.2

        My prediction and earnest wish too. Liz has absolute passion to begin remedy of conditions prejudicial to child health and therefore the present inequity of life chances.

      • Michael 1.1.3

        There’s a slight possibility Dowie will lose to Liz Craig. A lot depends on the size of the turnout – a big one, especially in South Invercargill (and Bluff) is good news for Craig. OTOH, I believe enrolments are low, meaning that many people won’t be able to vote, even if they want to. Finally, Dowie has a majority of almost 10,000, double that of Eric Roy in 2014 (thanks to Lesley Soper). So I think the chances of a seat change are low, although Craig looks likely to make it into Parliament on the List. It will be interesting to see whether her expertise in child poverty makes any difference to Labour’s actions in government. I won’t hold my breath.

      • Ad 1.1.4

        Remind us of the National majority there again?

  2. ianmac 2

    Would be pretty disastrous for National but remembering their collective arrogance in the House, and the contempt that they showed towards the Labour MPs, I do not feel sympathetic at all.
    I was roped into an Election night dinner a long time ago only to find it was a National Party house fund raiser. We stayed and watched the results come in. It was bad for Labour and the Nat folk cheered. OK but what stuck with me was the venom expressed as each Labour MP lost his seat. Nasty people.

    • Bearded Git 2.1

      that’s right…i’ll be quietly sipping my camomile tea as english joyce collins brownlee smith bennett bridges adams barry get turfed out….NOT

      • tracey 2.1.1

        Was thinking that but none of them will be gone… not immediately anyway…

        • Antoine

          I reckon at least 3 of those would leave Parliament over the next term and others would be punitively demoted

          • tracey

            Collins will want to do a Shipley and get overpaid for under performing on Boards. Sadly many Boards will want her to say they are diverse

            • AB

              “many Boards will want her to say they are diverse”
              True – whereas the bigger problem isn’t women’s unequal share of unaccountable private power, it’s unaccountable private power itself.

        • ianmac

          English for one is a List Only so he could be gone by Christmas, not that I feel particular animosity towards him personally.

          • ScottGN

            If National lose he’ll be gone before xmas. Possibly election night if the result is particularly bad for them.

    • mac1 2.2

      When I had a beer on two Friday nights ago with a local Nat in the group, a decent man, I did say to him that I knew what it was like to feel the emotions of three time election loss. The latest poll had shown Labour ahead for the first time. I would not gloat but the lightening of spirits that I felt made that beer just a wee bit better.

      If anybody thought that elections were not important, just consider that vitriol shown by the Nats at ianmac’s party. They know what’s at stake.

      And then we read today that business would be OK with a Labour government!

      What is even tastier in the post above is that our Labour candidate will be in on the list with her strong advocacy skills and farming background at 40%.

      The local National MP, described by Winston Peters at a public meeting here as the “neo-liberal backstabber who has done nothing since he got into the House, ” will have to look to his laurels. The former MP, who had been back-stabbed by less than democratic means I am informed, attended Peters’ meeting, along with his wife and daughter.

      Maybe, like me, a political junky- but there are some old scores to be settled within National’s ranks. There will be, as in 1999, National stay-aways, other jumping ship even as far as Labour as one 60 year old “always voted National, but what’s this Labour woman like?” farmer told me, sick of the growing poverty gap.

      The three meetings held by Grey Power were very friendly towards the progressive candidates and members were closely questioning of the National MP.

      A change is happening out here in the provinces.

      • ianmac 2.2.1

        Yes Mac1. The other day I had said to Janette just how hard it was for her in a Blue electorate and blow me down, she could make it on the List if all goes well. She is
        a straight forward upfront woman.
        I did challenge the National MP by asking if he supported the Joyce lie and tried again when he slid off the question just as his bosses do. A bit bumpy for a moment but my point was made I thought.

  3. Antoine 3

    I don’t think National particularly valued its ethnic diversity in the first place, so doubt they’re too worried on this count.

    It’s interesting however, to contemplate which high ranking National MPs may go between now and the next election…


    • tc 3.1

      Ethnically diverse but politically they are all neo liberal asset strippers.

      The one who stood in mt albert springs to mind as a wtf were they thinking moment.

  4. cleangreen 4

    Yes Anthony,

    Apparently Ron Marks is polling strong in the central region also, and may unseat a National seat there too!!!!!


  5. Ad 5

    Pundits are getting carried away and just looking silly.

    This election is on a knife edge and one small slip from any Labour MP is fatal.

    Forget all polls and just mobilise.

    • Pat 5.1

      agree with your caution but think it unlikely that 9 years of frustration isn’t going to reveal itself…..and not necessarily in a productive manner…..we can but hold on and hope.

  6. reason 6

    The Greens in NZ should network with their Aussie compatriots …. As it needs to be a worldwide effort to combat the rich corporate tax cheats ….

    John Key was the only Politician called out by name by the Panama papers whistle blower …… but the whistle blower did mention the politics of those who build inequality ….

    …”days before David Cameron holds a global anti-corruption summit in London, the source singled out the Conservatives, saying they had been “shameless about concealing their own practices involving offshore companies”.

    “Doe makes the point that tax evasion cannot possibly be fixed while elected officials, such as Key…… ” /why-was-john-key-singled-out-by-panama-papers-hacker/

    In the coming evaluation of our loop hole ridden tax laws …. The Greens should push for the inclusion of…..

    Michael West….

    Richard Smith …….

    & George Rozvany…

    Fix up what John key and the Nats have built into our tax system …. and the majority will be much better off.

  7. The Real Matthew 7

    Labour fills it’s ranks with Maori and Pacific MP’s and they achieve ethnic diversity? Yeah right. The Labour party caucus might be representative of South Auckland but lacks any serious representation from a number of ethnic minorities.

    Problem for Labour is they’ve had to do so by stealth quota. A number of their prospective MP’s simply aren’t up to the rigors of parliament. Whilst Labour may end up with around 50 MP’s it will be a core group of 10 doing the heavy lifting whilst the rest come along for the ride.

    Whilst on the subject of gender representation the silence on the Greens female majority is deafening.

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