Blue on the polls

Written By: - Date published: 12:04 pm, September 14th, 2014 - 62 comments
Categories: act, brand key, conservative party, david cunliffe, greens, john key, labour, Minister for Overseas Holidays, national, nz first, same old national - Tags: ,

Landline polls are a traditional gripe for lefties. But this election, more than any other, the polls look seriously out of whack with reality.

They are bouncing around so much that no one knows what’s going on – is National at 55%, 50%, 48% or 46%? But whatever number the latest poll shows, it’s always far too large for a party at National’s current stage in the political cycle.

Last election National got 47% and parties traditionally lose support the longer they are in government. Added to this, National are looking increasingly tired and stale, to the point where they seem to have given up entirely and are now just going through the motions.

There are no new ideas, hardly any policies, no major ones and little detail. They are now trying to make a virtue out of having no ideas. It’s funny that two terms of National were enough to ‘fix’ the ‘disaster’ that National claimed they were left with after Labour’s last term and deal with a major earthquake and a worldwide recession to boot. Apparently we’re all done now and all we need to do is keep standing still while the rest of the world continues moving forward without us.

John Key is looking more and more like he just wants to escape to Hawaii and be shut of us, and after the Dirty Politics revelations, it’s hard to see how anyone would want him to stay. He’s presided over a Government marked by Ministerial irresponsibility, dirty tricks and a level of corruption within the machinery of government that no sane person would want to see continue.

What reason could anyone have to vote National? Tax cuts in three years? Possibility of selfie with John Key? Please help me, I’m really struggling here.

The only other reason would be if Labour were so bad that voting for National was a lesser evil. But that’s definitely not the case now. David Cunliffe has performed extremely well in the debates – he will be a fantastic Prime Minister and David Parker will be an excellent Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. Labour has the leadership team, the policies and the coalition partners all buttoned down.

What does National have? Tired leader, no policies and the prospect of a coalition with the loonies from the Conservatives and Act.

A Labour/Greens/NZ First government will be stable, progressive and fiscally responsible. So why not vote for them?

Blue

62 comments on “Blue on the polls”

  1. Paul 1

    Just vote.
    Ignore the pollsters.

  2. JRT 2

    I have stopped listening to the MSM as they are so clearly working on behalf of their overseas masters. I am just ignoring the polls now. After Saturday we will know the truth. Hopefully the election isn’t corrupted as well.

  3. Chooky 3

    Good post….totally agree!…the Polls are crap

  4. There’s a lot of early voting going on, apparently.

    That’s one poll that can’t be fudged.

    Of course, it could be we’re all so prosperous, that a lot of people will be out of the country next Saturday…

    • Thinker 4.1

      Plus…

      The Fortune Cookie my wife brought home from the supermarket, opened after lunch today, reads “Happy News Is On The Way”.

      Not sure about the margin of error on that particular poll, but it could turn out to be more accurate than some of the more-techological polls carried out using landlines.

      If it works, I’ll use the same technique for 2017 and let you know.

  5. just saying 5

    The polls certainly aren’t reflecting what I’ve been hearing.

    Just one example, I was talking to a friend yesterday who lives in heartland National (Howick Village) and she was saying that she has never known an election in which virtually everyone she talks to say they don’t know who they will vote for.

    They may just be embarrassed to admit that they intend to vote for more corruption, but it wouldn’t take much of a swing away from the government to make a difference.

    This may be the election that finally puts an end to these bullshit, push-polls by proving them too inaccurate to report.

    • Thinker 5.1

      I thnk, if the left win, it will be a combination of blue team supporters staying home and red team supporters coming back. That’s not impossible, and your Howick Village micro-poll could be blue supporters feeling a different kind of blue than in 2014.

      It’s simply too close to call this time and we’ll have to wait.

  6. Rich 6

    There are no new policies for a very obvious reason. Also note that the ministers (Key, English, Tollie) are not in any way across their portfolios and look/sound like idiots when asked about those portfolios. Collins job was Minister of Cameron Slater. I suspect strongly that this is the sort of role Key has as well.

    Policy is obviously not something that the National Party anymore decides on. They must be taking directives.

  7. Clemgeopin 7

    Labour is not short of excellent leadership or great policies. What they are starved off are votes. That I think is due to unfairness of media reporting and dirty tactics, mainly from National.

    Consider giving your party vote to Labour as they for sure need lots and lots of them now.

    • Lanthanide 7.1

      I voted Greens because they have better policies.

      • Tracey 7.1.1

        Was it a relatively quick process Lanth, I know you were concerned about a delay in the advanced polling system?

        • Lanthanide 7.1.1.1

          The hardest part was finding out where to actually vote.

          It was in a local library that I’ve never been to before, with a sign pointing into the door for voting. I went inside an was confronted with all the normal library stuff, checkout counters with librarians helping people, computers with kids playing games on them, rows and rows of bookshelves. Initially I lined up to speak to a librarian to ask where I was supposed to vote, but after about a minute of standing in line I saw down the very back of the library (some 30m+ away), crammed in by the cafe, a little voting area with no direct line of access (I had to navigate around the computers and through the library shelves) and no blatant signage like I was expecting.

          Once I got to the place, there was no queue, and my EasyVote card made voting Easy.

          I give the overall voting experience a 6/10 for ease.

  8. Jrobin 8

    Yes agree Cl. I have decided to do just that even though I support Green policies more. Cunliffe impresses a lot of people as soon as he is not filtered through the vicious claptrap of a caged media. Good on Lisa Owen, Wallace Chapman and recently Paddy Gower and David Fisher. At least there are a few brave souls amidst the pet journalists. Polls are propaganda no more no less. Roy Morgan the one exception and they only get reported when Labour drops.

    • Clemgeopin 8.1

      I too have more confidence in the Roy Morgan poll, irrespective of the poll numbers, compared to all the other poll companies which I suspect are compromised by some shadowy RW entities manipulating behind the scenes. In the last election, except for Roy Morgan, the other polls were way off the margin of error mark!

  9. Saarbo 9

    100% Blue. Labour’s polling is frustrating. But I am hearing very good feedback regarding David Cunliffe…so let wait and see.

  10. Roger 10

    “Why not vote for them”. All right, since you asked, here’s why:
    Labour has got the most underwhelming lineup I have seen in my 50+ years. Unlike National, there has been no renewal and the way the polls are going, there won’t be a chance of renewal for another 3 years.

    David Cunliffe would be a terrible prime minister – he doesn’t even have support from his own caucus. He has a very tenuous grasp on his own policies, he whiteanted David Shearer(who, although he probably would have lost the debates with Key, at least comes across as genuine and would certainly have had Labour higher in the polls than Cunliffe). He sounds fake, he will tell people whatever he thinks they want to hear and will no doubt have to “consult his advisors” (“are you there, Matt?”) before he can offer an opinion on anything – a la Jenny Shipley.

    Nicky Hager has actually done National a big favour. Hopefully, they will still be in control of the government after the election, they’ve got rid of a big vote-loser (Collins) and they’ve been given just enough of a slap in the face to dispel any inevitable third-term hubris. Who knows, they may even get a fourth term the way Labour is going.

    • kenny 10.1

      Hahahahahahahahahaha!

      Back to dreamland for you.

      • anker 10.1.1

        Kenny 10000000+ What a dick Roger is!

        • Roger 10.1.1.1

          I’m sure you’ve got nothing but contempt as well for the around 50% of the voting population who prefer National to your sad little party.

          Perhaps that says more about you than them.

          The thing is, the voters have usually got it right, whether they’ve voted in a centre right or centre left government and it looks like they’re going to get it right again. Get over it.

          • word 10.1.1.1.1

            Roger from Planet key, national couldn’t even muster 48% at the last election, and John key has done alot more damage since then.

          • Tracey 10.1.1.1.2

            i think as of today it is 47% of the voting population who voted national in 2011

          • framu 10.1.1.1.3

            “I’m sure you’ve got nothing but contempt as well for the around 50% of the voting population who prefer National to your sad little party. ”

            that right there is the give away rogered – your mask slipped big time

    • Tracey 10.2

      By “renewal” do you mean the resignations by people who disagreed with key or looked bad for them?

      Aaron Gilmore
      Simon Power

      to name two such old and stale national Mps

  11. Dont worry. Be happy 11

    Just did an Horizon poll. Oddly when it came to which party do you support Mana and Internet Party were listed individually.

  12. Tangled_up 12

    Even if allowing for poll bias it looks like a Labour, Greens and NZF coalition would still need IMP to make up the numbers. I wonder whether Winston be willing to consider them tagging along? If he doesn’t king National that is.

  13. Colonial Viper 13

    Winston is going to be the man of the moment…again. Will be very surprised if National gets over 44%.

    • Lanthanide 13.1

      iPredict has National on a raw vote of 44.5%. On the electionresults.co.nz output the algorithm scales the major party vote share dependant on the minor parties in order to calculate seats, and in that formula Nats are currently on 43.4%

      • Tracey 13.1.1

        Whih of the VRWC are fixing ipredict so they can make money… the one thing they care about and use politics to make

  14. hoom 14

    I think its not that they don’t have new policy, they are just terrified to point out stuff they already said in the past/what they plan to actually do.

    There are a bunch of very controversial bills that they shelved ’till after the election’.
    Not ‘dumped’, just left to fester because they don’t want an actual public debate about them in the lead up to an election.

  15. Kiwi Local 15

    Blue

    you should mention this happening to quite a number called by Herald recently.

    we all got rejected way after they confirmed we were eligible age 70+ to be polled.- and after half way though just cut us off,

    It is very fishy. “Selective polling they all it apparently.

    Our conclusion;

    NZ polls are manipulated.

    Read & learn here.

    We think only two polls should be operating. They should be banned two weeks before election day to give folks time to concentrate properly.

    Corruption case to answer and a police investigation must be ordered by the opposition, here are some facts.

    A simple search last night of “Polls can be manipulated” – Google
    found about 1,400,000 results.
    Below leaves us all now with the knowledge of what in New Zealand is actually going on, it is more corruption of our MSM conducting manipulated polling results, and opposition now must call this as it is, corruption of the MSM and manipulation of all polls.

    We were contacted Friday 22nd of August at 4pm by Herald Digipoll by a lady who first said we are conducting a poll and could we participate?
    We said yes, then she said my supervisor is listening in, is that o/k?

    I hesitated but agreed and she went through a ten minute questioning, and then abruptly said we don’t need your input thanks, and hung up!

    This left us so disturbed we searched the web and found all 1.4 million cases of poll manipulations globally on Goggle, which include what is called “selective polling”

    We believe we were victims of a Herald Digipoll selective polling strategy.

    NZ polls are corrupted, is this a crime?
    Manipulated polls are occurring often overseas see below.

    This is just one case of the 1.4 million sites on Goggle in India which may show what is happening here in NZ.
    quote;

    New Delhi: Public opinion gathered by leading opinion poll agencies is often tweaked to give misleading results, Operation Prime Minister, a sting operation by a private news network, News Express, has revealed Tuesday. Well-known faces from leading opinion poll agencies have been caught on hidden camera agreeing to such malpractices.

    Operation Prime Minister shows how opinion polls are conducted and manipulated at the instance of political parties, their results traded to show a particular party in a favourable position, for a price. Presenting snippets from the sting operation at a press conference, Editor-in-chief of News Express, Vinod Kapri said, “Our motivation behind conducting the sting operation was a letter written by the Election Commission of India to all regional and national parties inviting their views on the publication of opinion polls.

    We wanted to investigate the concerns of the Commission.” In its letter dated 4 Oct, 2013, the Election Commission had said, “The Commission has been suggesting to the government that there should be a similar prohibition or restriction on opinion polls also as there could be several manipulated opinion polls which could impact the voting pattern.”

    Another motivation behind the sting operation was the mushrooming of opinion polls. “There used to be one or two opinion polls every election. But now, one sees an opinion poll almost every week. Which leads us to the question- how is the data generated so quickly and processed,” said Kapri.

    “Operation Prime Minister has exposed eleven opinion poll agencies, whose surveys are published in leading newspapers and magazines besides being broadcast by leading news channels”, it was claimed in the sting opertaion.

    It demonstrates how the 810 million voters of our country are duped into believing trends or waves that are manipulated. – See more at:

    “Opinion polls seem to have become the latest weapon in the poll campaign.

    For a price, the prediction of seats tally can be changed to suit the interests of political parties.

    The agencies have no qualms accepting even black money for this purpose”,

    News Express claimed. The influence of opinion poll agencies goes beyond mere opinion polls. In some cases, the poll agencies have claimed they can even prop up dummy candidates in the constituencies where the rival candidate is on a strong wicket.

    It has also been claimed that some leading editors are hand in glove with these poll agencies.

    This is just a few of the 1.4 million sites on Goggle. – See more at:

    http://www.ummid.com/news/2014/February/26.02.2014/opinion-poll-companies-exposed.html#sthash.wqSJ2ylu.dpuf

    http://www.sciences360.com/index.php/statistics-16350/

    http://www.ummid.com/news/2014/February/26.02.2014/opinion-poll-companies-exposed.html#sthash.h8rTzw8V.dpuf

    http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/471548/exit-polls-manipulated-modi-will-never-be-pm-samajwadi-party.html

    http://www.rediff.com/news/report/general-impression-that-opinion-polls-can-be-manipulated-sibal/20131109.htm

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Many-agencies-manipulating-opinion-poll-projections-claims-sting-operation/articleshow/31013534.cms

    http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/2764415112001

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/mhp-furious-over-opinion-poll-manipulation-claims.aspx?pageID=238&nID=62184&NewsCatID=338

    • rod 15.1

      In Britain most polls have a proviso after the result, it states. Results are indicative only and may not reflect public opinion. In New Zealand, the MSM would have us all think the results are set in concrete.

  16. Harry Holland 16

    In the corporate and small business circles in which I often mix, John Key is still Teflon John. Their cocky confidence has however gone. They are now nervous. Businesses seem to be doing OK and I think they are genuinely concerned that a change will disrupt that, even if only temporarily.
    .
    It would be very interesting to know what history tells us about economic growth in the 1-2 quarters following a change of government. Can anyone tell me?
    .
    [My instincts are with Laila, but my vote will probably go to Labour in support of DC.]

    • KJT 16.1

      There is always a bit of a dip just before and after a change, regardless of the incoming party.

      Plenty of small and medium business people I know think National is destructive, however.

      • Lanthanide 16.1.1

        National hasn’t really done much to support small business.

        Anecdote around that is that there’s a very busy roundabout near my work, with a car panel beater shop right on the corner of the round-about. Has been there for years, always looks busy. In 2011 they had a big free-standing election hoarding for John Key. There’s no sign there this year.

  17. kenny 17

    Has anyone considered that the surge in business confidence earlier in the year may have been due to the fact that businessmen in general liked what they were hearing from Labour and saw the prospect of a Labour-led government more to their liking?

    Perhaps their current pessimism stems from the fact that National are still favourites, according to the media, to win the election.

    Bugger the polls!!!

    The real McCoy is next Saturday. I’m looking forward to a lot of so-called experts having to eat their words come Sunday.

  18. Matthew Hooton 18

    Trust ipredict over polls.
    Latest update is here: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1409/S00317/ipredict-daily-update.htm

    • bearded git 18.1

      Yes. Interesting. Ipredict has LGNZFIMP at 61 seats Nats rabble at 59 seats.

      Hold on to your hats-this will be a roller coaster!!

    • lprent 18.2

      iPredict is way way too easy to manipulate if you are unconcerned with losing small amounts of money. The number of active traders is too small, the number of trades is low, and the amount of money in the system is pretty pathetic.

      When I did my MBA, these were all signs of classic crony markets. Not a free market at all.

      I can’t see any difference between it and the polls in terms of accuracy in the 6 months prior to an election.

    • hoom 18.3

      Why would we trust a weird market-based self-selected & small sample?

      • Matthew Hooton 18.3.1

        On empirical grounds.

        • quartz 18.3.1.1

          Hey Matthew. Did you ever pay Slater to run spin posts you’d written on behalf of your clients under his name?

        • blue leopard 18.3.1.2

          @ M Hooton

          It has been pretty empirically established that market failure is a problem for markets.

          Yes?

          • hoom 18.3.1.2.1

            The emperical history of Statistics shows that self-selecting samples are not reliable at all.

            But hey, lets get back to talking policy: What policy does ipredict predict for a 3rd term NACT Govt?

        • jaymam 18.3.1.3

          Do you still have an interest in iPredict and what is the meaning of this comment from Slater?
          December 16, 2013
          ————————-
          Cameron Slater, 12/16, 4:56am
          Matthew Owen Hooton..but is director of iPredict Administration Limited
          ————————-
          Company Number
          3732480
          Status
          Struck Off

      • One Anonymous Bloke 18.3.2

        It’s a model. We don’t trust models we ask how much “skill” they have.

  19. infused 19

    awwww. So cute. These polls cannot be right??! Everyone I talk to says they are voting Labour!!!!11

  20. word 20

    There are no doubts whatsoever, that national/media are using manipulated polls as electioneering tools to hoodwink NZers.

  21. Hannahj 21

    I guess it depends who you associate with. I know many National voters.

    I asked my friend a couple of weekends back who he was voting for and to my shock he said National because he thinks small business owners (like his friend that owns a Hell’s Pizza) will struggle to pay their staff at the increased wage and will have to close. He also said he liked National’s home policy as he wants to buy a home in the next 1 or 2 years and that policy would help with his deposit. He admitted he does not like John Key.

    My other friend likes National. For no reason of substance, but not that they can be convinced otherwise. They basically see no viable alternative. I mentioned the rising debt levels under National to which my friend said ‘no, that’s not true!’. She then went on to talk about how she’s worked hard to get to where she is and why should some of her hard earnings be redistributed to others. I said people are really struggling to live off minimum wage and in many cases cannot get jobs but that didn’t seem to worry her.

    And other family are clueless to the point it is awkward to even bring it up. They vote for John Key as he is ‘a nice man’. They seem to realise families are struggling but think that it is because of their bad management i.e. it’s not expensive to make a sandwich or give your children some weet-bix in the morning.

    I noticed on Facebook out of about 300 friends, about 30 like John Key/13 like National Party page, about 14 like the Green Party and 2 like Labour’s page/2 like David Cunliffe and 2 like Mana.

    Note: My friends would mostly be in the 25-35 age bracket.

    That says to me that Labour are not getting any traction whatsoever with my age group and Team Key is winning out (although Greens have a good amount of support).

  22. JRyan 22

    Hannahj says she has 300 friends. Simply sad. Does this fakeness fill your emotional vaccum or something? The polls are favouring National because people prefer them more, as we will see in a few days time. If Labour want to side up with nasty unrealistic people then expect the polls that you are all fretting about. KDC is nothing more than a manipulating buffoon. Pretty hard to watch as kiwis rally around the great hulk like some saviour or something. Sickening.

  23. philj 23

    xox
    Hey Jryan,re Hannahj,
    Why pick up on ‘300 friends, simply sad’ ? R u you a rwnj? Head back to your friends at whale oil.

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