Blue on the polls

Written By: - Date published: 12:04 pm, September 14th, 2014 - 62 comments
Categories: act, brand key, conservative party, david cunliffe, greens, john key, labour, Minister for Overseas Holidays, national, nz first, same old national - Tags: ,

Landline polls are a traditional gripe for lefties. But this election, more than any other, the polls look seriously out of whack with reality.

They are bouncing around so much that no one knows what’s going on – is National at 55%, 50%, 48% or 46%? But whatever number the latest poll shows, it’s always far too large for a party at National’s current stage in the political cycle.

Last election National got 47% and parties traditionally lose support the longer they are in government. Added to this, National are looking increasingly tired and stale, to the point where they seem to have given up entirely and are now just going through the motions.

There are no new ideas, hardly any policies, no major ones and little detail. They are now trying to make a virtue out of having no ideas. It’s funny that two terms of National were enough to ‘fix’ the ‘disaster’ that National claimed they were left with after Labour’s last term and deal with a major earthquake and a worldwide recession to boot. Apparently we’re all done now and all we need to do is keep standing still while the rest of the world continues moving forward without us.

John Key is looking more and more like he just wants to escape to Hawaii and be shut of us, and after the Dirty Politics revelations, it’s hard to see how anyone would want him to stay. He’s presided over a Government marked by Ministerial irresponsibility, dirty tricks and a level of corruption within the machinery of government that no sane person would want to see continue.

What reason could anyone have to vote National? Tax cuts in three years? Possibility of selfie with John Key? Please help me, I’m really struggling here.

The only other reason would be if Labour were so bad that voting for National was a lesser evil. But that’s definitely not the case now. David Cunliffe has performed extremely well in the debates – he will be a fantastic Prime Minister and David Parker will be an excellent Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. Labour has the leadership team, the policies and the coalition partners all buttoned down.

What does National have? Tired leader, no policies and the prospect of a coalition with the loonies from the Conservatives and Act.

A Labour/Greens/NZ First government will be stable, progressive and fiscally responsible. So why not vote for them?

Blue

62 comments on “Blue on the polls ”

  1. Paul 1

    Just vote.
    Ignore the pollsters.

  2. JRT 2

    I have stopped listening to the MSM as they are so clearly working on behalf of their overseas masters. I am just ignoring the polls now. After Saturday we will know the truth. Hopefully the election isn’t corrupted as well.

  3. Chooky 3

    Good post….totally agree!…the Polls are crap

  4. There’s a lot of early voting going on, apparently.

    That’s one poll that can’t be fudged.

    Of course, it could be we’re all so prosperous, that a lot of people will be out of the country next Saturday…

    • Thinker 4.1

      Plus…

      The Fortune Cookie my wife brought home from the supermarket, opened after lunch today, reads “Happy News Is On The Way”.

      Not sure about the margin of error on that particular poll, but it could turn out to be more accurate than some of the more-techological polls carried out using landlines.

      If it works, I’ll use the same technique for 2017 and let you know.

  5. just saying 5

    The polls certainly aren’t reflecting what I’ve been hearing.

    Just one example, I was talking to a friend yesterday who lives in heartland National (Howick Village) and she was saying that she has never known an election in which virtually everyone she talks to say they don’t know who they will vote for.

    They may just be embarrassed to admit that they intend to vote for more corruption, but it wouldn’t take much of a swing away from the government to make a difference.

    This may be the election that finally puts an end to these bullshit, push-polls by proving them too inaccurate to report.

    • Thinker 5.1

      I thnk, if the left win, it will be a combination of blue team supporters staying home and red team supporters coming back. That’s not impossible, and your Howick Village micro-poll could be blue supporters feeling a different kind of blue than in 2014.

      It’s simply too close to call this time and we’ll have to wait.

  6. Rich 6

    There are no new policies for a very obvious reason. Also note that the ministers (Key, English, Tollie) are not in any way across their portfolios and look/sound like idiots when asked about those portfolios. Collins job was Minister of Cameron Slater. I suspect strongly that this is the sort of role Key has as well.

    Policy is obviously not something that the National Party anymore decides on. They must be taking directives.

  7. Clemgeopin 7

    Labour is not short of excellent leadership or great policies. What they are starved off are votes. That I think is due to unfairness of media reporting and dirty tactics, mainly from National.

    Consider giving your party vote to Labour as they for sure need lots and lots of them now.

    • Lanthanide 7.1

      I voted Greens because they have better policies.

      • Tracey 7.1.1

        Was it a relatively quick process Lanth, I know you were concerned about a delay in the advanced polling system?

        • Lanthanide 7.1.1.1

          The hardest part was finding out where to actually vote.

          It was in a local library that I’ve never been to before, with a sign pointing into the door for voting. I went inside an was confronted with all the normal library stuff, checkout counters with librarians helping people, computers with kids playing games on them, rows and rows of bookshelves. Initially I lined up to speak to a librarian to ask where I was supposed to vote, but after about a minute of standing in line I saw down the very back of the library (some 30m+ away), crammed in by the cafe, a little voting area with no direct line of access (I had to navigate around the computers and through the library shelves) and no blatant signage like I was expecting.

          Once I got to the place, there was no queue, and my EasyVote card made voting Easy.

          I give the overall voting experience a 6/10 for ease.

  8. Jrobin 8

    Yes agree Cl. I have decided to do just that even though I support Green policies more. Cunliffe impresses a lot of people as soon as he is not filtered through the vicious claptrap of a caged media. Good on Lisa Owen, Wallace Chapman and recently Paddy Gower and David Fisher. At least there are a few brave souls amidst the pet journalists. Polls are propaganda no more no less. Roy Morgan the one exception and they only get reported when Labour drops.

    • Clemgeopin 8.1

      I too have more confidence in the Roy Morgan poll, irrespective of the poll numbers, compared to all the other poll companies which I suspect are compromised by some shadowy RW entities manipulating behind the scenes. In the last election, except for Roy Morgan, the other polls were way off the margin of error mark!

  9. Saarbo 9

    100% Blue. Labour’s polling is frustrating. But I am hearing very good feedback regarding David Cunliffe…so let wait and see.

  10. Roger 10

    “Why not vote for them”. All right, since you asked, here’s why:
    Labour has got the most underwhelming lineup I have seen in my 50+ years. Unlike National, there has been no renewal and the way the polls are going, there won’t be a chance of renewal for another 3 years.

    David Cunliffe would be a terrible prime minister – he doesn’t even have support from his own caucus. He has a very tenuous grasp on his own policies, he whiteanted David Shearer(who, although he probably would have lost the debates with Key, at least comes across as genuine and would certainly have had Labour higher in the polls than Cunliffe). He sounds fake, he will tell people whatever he thinks they want to hear and will no doubt have to “consult his advisors” (“are you there, Matt?”) before he can offer an opinion on anything – a la Jenny Shipley.

    Nicky Hager has actually done National a big favour. Hopefully, they will still be in control of the government after the election, they’ve got rid of a big vote-loser (Collins) and they’ve been given just enough of a slap in the face to dispel any inevitable third-term hubris. Who knows, they may even get a fourth term the way Labour is going.

    • kenny 10.1

      Hahahahahahahahahaha!

      Back to dreamland for you.

      • anker 10.1.1

        Kenny 10000000+ What a dick Roger is!

        • Roger 10.1.1.1

          I’m sure you’ve got nothing but contempt as well for the around 50% of the voting population who prefer National to your sad little party.

          Perhaps that says more about you than them.

          The thing is, the voters have usually got it right, whether they’ve voted in a centre right or centre left government and it looks like they’re going to get it right again. Get over it.

          • word 10.1.1.1.1

            Roger from Planet key, national couldn’t even muster 48% at the last election, and John key has done alot more damage since then.

          • Tracey 10.1.1.1.2

            i think as of today it is 47% of the voting population who voted national in 2011

          • framu 10.1.1.1.3

            “I’m sure you’ve got nothing but contempt as well for the around 50% of the voting population who prefer National to your sad little party. ”

            that right there is the give away rogered – your mask slipped big time

    • Tracey 10.2

      By “renewal” do you mean the resignations by people who disagreed with key or looked bad for them?

      Aaron Gilmore
      Simon Power

      to name two such old and stale national Mps

  11. Dont worry. Be happy 11

    Just did an Horizon poll. Oddly when it came to which party do you support Mana and Internet Party were listed individually.

  12. Tangled_up 12

    Even if allowing for poll bias it looks like a Labour, Greens and NZF coalition would still need IMP to make up the numbers. I wonder whether Winston be willing to consider them tagging along? If he doesn’t king National that is.

  13. Colonial Viper 13

    Winston is going to be the man of the moment…again. Will be very surprised if National gets over 44%.

    • Lanthanide 13.1

      iPredict has National on a raw vote of 44.5%. On the electionresults.co.nz output the algorithm scales the major party vote share dependant on the minor parties in order to calculate seats, and in that formula Nats are currently on 43.4%

      • Tracey 13.1.1

        Whih of the VRWC are fixing ipredict so they can make money… the one thing they care about and use politics to make

  14. hoom 14

    I think its not that they don’t have new policy, they are just terrified to point out stuff they already said in the past/what they plan to actually do.

    There are a bunch of very controversial bills that they shelved ’till after the election’.
    Not ‘dumped’, just left to fester because they don’t want an actual public debate about them in the lead up to an election.

  15. Kiwi Local 15

    Blue

    you should mention this happening to quite a number called by Herald recently.

    we all got rejected way after they confirmed we were eligible age 70+ to be polled.- and after half way though just cut us off,

    It is very fishy. “Selective polling they all it apparently.

    Our conclusion;

    NZ polls are manipulated.

    Read & learn here.

    We think only two polls should be operating. They should be banned two weeks before election day to give folks time to concentrate properly.

    Corruption case to answer and a police investigation must be ordered by the opposition, here are some facts.

    A simple search last night of “Polls can be manipulated” – Google
    found about 1,400,000 results.
    Below leaves us all now with the knowledge of what in New Zealand is actually going on, it is more corruption of our MSM conducting manipulated polling results, and opposition now must call this as it is, corruption of the MSM and manipulation of all polls.

    We were contacted Friday 22nd of August at 4pm by Herald Digipoll by a lady who first said we are conducting a poll and could we participate?
    We said yes, then she said my supervisor is listening in, is that o/k?

    I hesitated but agreed and she went through a ten minute questioning, and then abruptly said we don’t need your input thanks, and hung up!

    This left us so disturbed we searched the web and found all 1.4 million cases of poll manipulations globally on Goggle, which include what is called “selective polling”

    We believe we were victims of a Herald Digipoll selective polling strategy.

    NZ polls are corrupted, is this a crime?
    Manipulated polls are occurring often overseas see below.

    This is just one case of the 1.4 million sites on Goggle in India which may show what is happening here in NZ.
    quote;

    New Delhi: Public opinion gathered by leading opinion poll agencies is often tweaked to give misleading results, Operation Prime Minister, a sting operation by a private news network, News Express, has revealed Tuesday. Well-known faces from leading opinion poll agencies have been caught on hidden camera agreeing to such malpractices.

    Operation Prime Minister shows how opinion polls are conducted and manipulated at the instance of political parties, their results traded to show a particular party in a favourable position, for a price. Presenting snippets from the sting operation at a press conference, Editor-in-chief of News Express, Vinod Kapri said, “Our motivation behind conducting the sting operation was a letter written by the Election Commission of India to all regional and national parties inviting their views on the publication of opinion polls.

    We wanted to investigate the concerns of the Commission.” In its letter dated 4 Oct, 2013, the Election Commission had said, “The Commission has been suggesting to the government that there should be a similar prohibition or restriction on opinion polls also as there could be several manipulated opinion polls which could impact the voting pattern.”

    Another motivation behind the sting operation was the mushrooming of opinion polls. “There used to be one or two opinion polls every election. But now, one sees an opinion poll almost every week. Which leads us to the question- how is the data generated so quickly and processed,” said Kapri.

    “Operation Prime Minister has exposed eleven opinion poll agencies, whose surveys are published in leading newspapers and magazines besides being broadcast by leading news channels”, it was claimed in the sting opertaion.

    It demonstrates how the 810 million voters of our country are duped into believing trends or waves that are manipulated. – See more at:

    “Opinion polls seem to have become the latest weapon in the poll campaign.

    For a price, the prediction of seats tally can be changed to suit the interests of political parties.

    The agencies have no qualms accepting even black money for this purpose”,

    News Express claimed. The influence of opinion poll agencies goes beyond mere opinion polls. In some cases, the poll agencies have claimed they can even prop up dummy candidates in the constituencies where the rival candidate is on a strong wicket.

    It has also been claimed that some leading editors are hand in glove with these poll agencies.

    This is just a few of the 1.4 million sites on Goggle. – See more at:

    http://www.ummid.com/news/2014/February/26.02.2014/opinion-poll-companies-exposed.html#sthash.wqSJ2ylu.dpuf

    http://www.sciences360.com/index.php/statistics-16350/

    http://www.ummid.com/news/2014/February/26.02.2014/opinion-poll-companies-exposed.html#sthash.h8rTzw8V.dpuf

    http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/471548/exit-polls-manipulated-modi-will-never-be-pm-samajwadi-party.html

    http://www.rediff.com/news/report/general-impression-that-opinion-polls-can-be-manipulated-sibal/20131109.htm

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Many-agencies-manipulating-opinion-poll-projections-claims-sting-operation/articleshow/31013534.cms

    http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/2764415112001

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/mhp-furious-over-opinion-poll-manipulation-claims.aspx?pageID=238&nID=62184&NewsCatID=338

    • rod 15.1

      In Britain most polls have a proviso after the result, it states. Results are indicative only and may not reflect public opinion. In New Zealand, the MSM would have us all think the results are set in concrete.

  16. Harry Holland 16

    In the corporate and small business circles in which I often mix, John Key is still Teflon John. Their cocky confidence has however gone. They are now nervous. Businesses seem to be doing OK and I think they are genuinely concerned that a change will disrupt that, even if only temporarily.
    .
    It would be very interesting to know what history tells us about economic growth in the 1-2 quarters following a change of government. Can anyone tell me?
    .
    [My instincts are with Laila, but my vote will probably go to Labour in support of DC.]

    • KJT 16.1

      There is always a bit of a dip just before and after a change, regardless of the incoming party.

      Plenty of small and medium business people I know think National is destructive, however.

      • Lanthanide 16.1.1

        National hasn’t really done much to support small business.

        Anecdote around that is that there’s a very busy roundabout near my work, with a car panel beater shop right on the corner of the round-about. Has been there for years, always looks busy. In 2011 they had a big free-standing election hoarding for John Key. There’s no sign there this year.

  17. kenny 17

    Has anyone considered that the surge in business confidence earlier in the year may have been due to the fact that businessmen in general liked what they were hearing from Labour and saw the prospect of a Labour-led government more to their liking?

    Perhaps their current pessimism stems from the fact that National are still favourites, according to the media, to win the election.

    Bugger the polls!!!

    The real McCoy is next Saturday. I’m looking forward to a lot of so-called experts having to eat their words come Sunday.

  18. Matthew Hooton 18

    Trust ipredict over polls.
    Latest update is here: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1409/S00317/ipredict-daily-update.htm

    • bearded git 18.1

      Yes. Interesting. Ipredict has LGNZFIMP at 61 seats Nats rabble at 59 seats.

      Hold on to your hats-this will be a roller coaster!!

    • lprent 18.2

      iPredict is way way too easy to manipulate if you are unconcerned with losing small amounts of money. The number of active traders is too small, the number of trades is low, and the amount of money in the system is pretty pathetic.

      When I did my MBA, these were all signs of classic crony markets. Not a free market at all.

      I can’t see any difference between it and the polls in terms of accuracy in the 6 months prior to an election.

    • hoom 18.3

      Why would we trust a weird market-based self-selected & small sample?

      • Matthew Hooton 18.3.1

        On empirical grounds.

        • quartz 18.3.1.1

          Hey Matthew. Did you ever pay Slater to run spin posts you’d written on behalf of your clients under his name?

        • blue leopard 18.3.1.2

          @ M Hooton

          It has been pretty empirically established that market failure is a problem for markets.

          Yes?

          • hoom 18.3.1.2.1

            The emperical history of Statistics shows that self-selecting samples are not reliable at all.

            But hey, lets get back to talking policy: What policy does ipredict predict for a 3rd term NACT Govt?

        • jaymam 18.3.1.3

          Do you still have an interest in iPredict and what is the meaning of this comment from Slater?
          December 16, 2013
          ————————-
          Cameron Slater, 12/16, 4:56am
          Matthew Owen Hooton..but is director of iPredict Administration Limited
          ————————-
          Company Number
          3732480
          Status
          Struck Off

      • One Anonymous Bloke 18.3.2

        It’s a model. We don’t trust models we ask how much “skill” they have.

  19. infused 19

    awwww. So cute. These polls cannot be right??! Everyone I talk to says they are voting Labour!!!!11

  20. word 20

    There are no doubts whatsoever, that national/media are using manipulated polls as electioneering tools to hoodwink NZers.

  21. Hannahj 21

    I guess it depends who you associate with. I know many National voters.

    I asked my friend a couple of weekends back who he was voting for and to my shock he said National because he thinks small business owners (like his friend that owns a Hell’s Pizza) will struggle to pay their staff at the increased wage and will have to close. He also said he liked National’s home policy as he wants to buy a home in the next 1 or 2 years and that policy would help with his deposit. He admitted he does not like John Key.

    My other friend likes National. For no reason of substance, but not that they can be convinced otherwise. They basically see no viable alternative. I mentioned the rising debt levels under National to which my friend said ‘no, that’s not true!’. She then went on to talk about how she’s worked hard to get to where she is and why should some of her hard earnings be redistributed to others. I said people are really struggling to live off minimum wage and in many cases cannot get jobs but that didn’t seem to worry her.

    And other family are clueless to the point it is awkward to even bring it up. They vote for John Key as he is ‘a nice man’. They seem to realise families are struggling but think that it is because of their bad management i.e. it’s not expensive to make a sandwich or give your children some weet-bix in the morning.

    I noticed on Facebook out of about 300 friends, about 30 like John Key/13 like National Party page, about 14 like the Green Party and 2 like Labour’s page/2 like David Cunliffe and 2 like Mana.

    Note: My friends would mostly be in the 25-35 age bracket.

    That says to me that Labour are not getting any traction whatsoever with my age group and Team Key is winning out (although Greens have a good amount of support).

  22. JRyan 22

    Hannahj says she has 300 friends. Simply sad. Does this fakeness fill your emotional vaccum or something? The polls are favouring National because people prefer them more, as we will see in a few days time. If Labour want to side up with nasty unrealistic people then expect the polls that you are all fretting about. KDC is nothing more than a manipulating buffoon. Pretty hard to watch as kiwis rally around the great hulk like some saviour or something. Sickening.

  23. philj 23

    xox
    Hey Jryan,re Hannahj,
    Why pick up on ‘300 friends, simply sad’ ? R u you a rwnj? Head back to your friends at whale oil.

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    Fill me up with soundThe world sings with me a million smiles an hourI can see me dancing on my radioI can hear you singing in the blades of grassYellow dandelions on my way to schoolBig Beautiful Sky!Song: Venus Hum.Good morning, all you lovely people, and welcome to the 700th ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • I Went to a Creed Concert

    Note: The audio attached to this Webworm compliments today’s newsletter. I collected it as I met people attending a Creed concert. Their opinions may differ to mine. Read more ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago
  • Government migration policy backfires; thousands of unemployed nurses

    The country has imported literally thousands of nurses over the past few months yet whether they are being employed as nurses is another matter. Just what is going on with HealthNZ and it nurses is, at best, opaque, in that it will not release anything but broad general statistics and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A Time For Unity.

    Emotional Response: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon addresses mourners at the tangi of King Tuheitia on Turangawaewae Marae on Saturday, 31 August 2024.THE DEATH OF KING TUHEITIA could hardly have come at a worse time for Maoridom. The power of the Kingitanga to unify te iwi Māori was demonstrated powerfully at January’s ...
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Failed again

    National's tax cut policies relied on stealing revenue from the ETS (previously used to fund emissions reduction) to fund tax cuts to landlords. So how's that going? Badly. Today's auction failed again, with zero units (of a possible 7.6 million) sold. Which means they have a $456 million hole in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt Two.

    A question of size. Small size generally means large vulnerability. The perception of threat is broader and often more immediate for small countries. The feeling of comparative weakness, of exposure to risk, and of potential intimidation by larger powers often … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Nicola Willis’s Very Unserious Bungling of the Kiwirail Interislander Cancellation

    Open to all with kind thanks to all subscribers and supporters.Today, RNZ revealed that despite MFAT advice to Nicola Willis to be very “careful and deliberate” in her communications with the South Korean government, prior to any public announcement on cancelling Kiwirail’s i-Rex, Willis instead told South Korea 26 minutes ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Satisfying the Minister’s Speed Obsession

    The Minister of Transport’s speed obsession has this week resulted in two new consultations for 110km/h speed limits, one in Auckland and one in Christchurch. There has also been final approval of the Kapiti Expressway to move to 110km/h following an earlier consultation. While the changes will almost certainly see ...
    4 days ago
  • What if we freed up our streets, again?

    This guest post is by Tommy de Silva, a local rangatahi and freelance writer who is passionate about making the urban fabric of Tāmaki Makaurau-Auckland more people-focused and sustainable. New Zealand’s March-April 2020 Level 4 Covid response (aka “lockdown”) was somehow both the best and worst six weeks of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    4 days ago
  • No Alarms And No Surprises

    A heart that's full up like a landfillA job that slowly kills youBruises that won't healYou look so tired, unhappyBring down the governmentThey don't, they don't speak for usI'll take a quiet lifeA handshake of carbon monoxideAnd no alarms and no surprisesThe fabulous English comedian Stewart Lee once wrote a ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Five ingenious ways people could beat the heat without cranking the AC

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Daisy Simmons Every summer brings a new spate of headlines about record-breaking heat – for good reason: 2023 was the hottest year on record, in keeping with the upward trend scientists have been clocking for decades. With climate forecasts suggesting that heat waves ...
    4 days ago
  • No new funding for cycling & walking

    Studies show each $1 of spending on walking and cycling infrastructure produces $13 to $35 of economic benefits from higher productivity, lower healthcare costs, less congestion, lower emissions and lower fossil fuel import costs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • 99

    Dad turned 99 today.Hell of a lot of candles, eh?He won't be alone for his birthday. He will have the warm attention of my brother, and my sister, and everyone at the rest home, the most thoughtful attentive and considerate people you could ever know. On Saturday there will be ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Open Government: National reneges on beneficial ownership

    One of the achievements of the New Zealand’s Open Government Partnership Fourth National Action Plan was a formal commitment from the government to establish a public beneficial ownership register. Such a register would allow the ultimate owners of companies to be identified - a vital measure in preventing corruption, money ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt One.

    This project analyzes security politics in three peripheral democracies (Chile, New Zealand, Portugal) during the 30 years after the end of the Cold War. It argues that changes in the geopolitical landscape and geo-strategic context are interpreted differently by small … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Tea and Toast

    When the skies are looking bad my dearAnd your heart's lost all its hopeAfter dawn there will be sunshineAnd all the dust will goThe skies will clear my darlingNow it's time for you to let goOur girl will wake you up in the mornin'With some tea and toastLyrics: Lucy Spraggan.Good ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • NLTP 2024 released – destroying pipeline of shovel ready local projects

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Waka Kotahi yesterday released the latest National Land Transport Plan (NLTP) for 2024-27. The NLTP sets out what transport projects will be funded for the next three years, including both central and local government projects. As expected given the government’s extremely ideological transport policy, it’s ...
    5 days ago
  • Can Brown deliver his roads

    The Government’s unveiling of its road-building programme yesterday was ambitious and, many would say, long overdue. But the question will be whether it is too ambitious, whether it is affordable, and, if not, what might be dropped. The big ticket items will be the 17 so-called Roads of National Significance. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • New paper about detecting climate misinformation on Twitter/X

    Together with Cristian Rojas, Frank Algra-Maschio, Mark Andrejevic, Travis Coan, and Yuan-Fang Li, I just published a paper in Nature Communications Earth & Environment where we use the Computer Assisted Recognition of Denial and Skepticism (CARDS) machine learning model to detect climate misinformation in 5 million climate tweets. We find over half ...
    5 days ago
  • Excerpting “Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies.”

    In the late 2000s-early 2010s I was researching and writing a book titled “Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Chile, New Zealand and Portugal.” The book was a cross-regional Small-N qualitative comparison of the security strategies and postures of three small … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Hating for the Wrong Reasons: Of Rings of Power, Orcs and Evil

    A few months ago, my fellow countryman, HelloFutureMe, put out a giant YouTube video, dissecting what went wrong with the first season of Rings of Power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ6FRUO0ui0&t=8376s). It’s an exceptionally good video, and though it spans some two and a half hours, it is well worth your time. But ...
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: “Least cost” to who?

    On Friday the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment released their submission on National's second Emissions Reduction Plan, ripping the shit out of it as a massive gamble based on wishful thinking. One of the specific issues he focused on was National's idea of "least cost" emissions reduction, pointing out that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Israeli Lives Matter

    There is no monopoly on common senseOn either side of the political fenceWe share the same biology, regardless of ideologyBelieve me when I say to youI hope the Russians love their children tooLyrics: Sting. Read more ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Luxon Cries

    Over the weekend, I found myself rather irritably reading up about the Treaty of Waitangi. “Do I need to do this?” It’s not my jurisdiction. In any other world, would this be something I choose to do?My answer - no.The Waitangi Tribunal, headed by some of our best legal minds, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Just one Wellington home being consented for every 10 in Auckland

    A decade of under-building is coming home to roost in Wellington. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday September 2:Wellington’s leaders are wringing their hands over an exodus of skilled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Container trucks on local streets: why take the risk?

    This is a guest post by Charmaine Vaughan, who came to transport advocacy via her local Residents Association and a comms role at Bike Auckland. Her enthusiasm to make local streets safer for all is shared by her son Dylan Vaughan, a budding “urban nerd” who provided much of the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    6 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35

    A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 25, 2024 thru Sat, August 31, 2024. Story of the week After another crammed week of climate news including updates on climate tipping points, increasing threats from rising ...
    6 days ago
  • An Uncanny Valley of Improvement: A Review and Analysis of The Rings of Power, Episodes 1-3 (Season ...

    And thus we come to the second instalment of Amazon’s Rings of Power. The first season, in 2022, was underwhelming, even for someone like myself, who is by nature inclined to approach Tolkien adaptations with charity. The writing was poor, the plot made no sense on its own terms, and ...
    7 days ago
  • Alcohol debris and Crocodile Tears

    I write to you this morning from scenes of carnage. Around the floor lie young men who only hours earlier were full of life, and cocktails, and now lie silent. Read more ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • When Do We Look Away?

    Hi,The first time I saw something that made me recoil on the internet was a visit to Rotten.com. The clue was in the name — but the internet was a new thing to me in the 90s, and no-one really knew what the hell was going on. But somehow I ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    7 days ago
  • The decades just fly by

    You turn your back for a moment and a city can completely transform itself. It was, oh, just the other day I was tripping up to Kuala Lumpur every few months to teach workshops and luxuriate in the tropical warmth and fill my face with Char Kway Teow.It has to ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • 2024 Reading Summary: August

    Completed reads for August: Aesop’s Fables (collection), by Aesop Berserk: Volume XXV (manga), by Kentaro Miura Benighted, by J.B. Priestly Berserk: Volume XXVI (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXVII (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXVIII (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXIX (manga), by Kentaro Miura ...
    1 week ago
  • Is recent global warming part of a natural cycle?

    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with John Mason. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is recent global warming part ...
    1 week ago
  • White Noise

    Now here we standWith our hearts in our handsSqueezing out the liesAll that I hearIs a message, unclearWhat else is there to decide?All that I'm hearing from youIs White NoiseLyrics: Christopher John CheneyIs the tide turning?Have we reached the high point of the racist hate and lies from Hobson’s Pledge, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The Death Of “Big Norm” – Exactly 50 Years Ago Today.

    Norman KirkPrime Minister of New Zealand 1972-1974Born: 6 January 1923 - Died: 31 August 1974Of the working-class, by the working-class, for the working-class.Video courtesy of YouTubeThese elements were posted on Bowalley Road on Saturday, 31 August 2024. ...
    1 week ago
  • Claims and Counter-Claims.

    Whose Foreshore? Whose Seabed? When the Marine and Coastal Area Act was originally passed back in 2011, fears about the coastline becoming off-limits to Pakeha were routinely allayed by National Party politicians pointing out that the tests imposed were so stringent  that only a modest percentage of claims (the then treaty ...
    1 week ago
  • Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • The Principles of the Treaty

    Hardly anyone says what are ‘the principles of the treaty’. The courts’ interpretation restrain the New Zealand Government. While they about protecting a particular community, those restraints apply equally to all community in a liberal democracy – including a single person.Treaty principles were introduced into the governance of New Zealand ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • The Only Other Reliable Vehicle.

    An Elite Leader Awaiting Rotation? Hipkins’ give-National-nothing-to-aim-at strategy will only succeed if the Coalition becomes as unpopular in three years as the British Tories became in fourteen.THE SHAPE OF CHRIS HIPKINS’ THINKING on Labour’s optimum pathway to re-election is emerging steadily. At the core of his strategy is Hipkins’ view ...
    1 week ago
  • A Big F U to this Right Wing Government

    Open to all - deep thanks to those who support and subscribe.One of the things that has got me interested recently is updates about Māori wards.In April, Stuff’s Karanama Ruru reported that ~ 2/3 of our 78 councils had adopted Māori wards in NZ.That meant that under the Coalition repeal ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: James Shaw’s legacy keeps paying off

    One of the central planks of the previous Labour-Green government's emissions reduction policy was GIDI (Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry). This was basically using ETS revenue to pay polluters to clean up production, reducing emissions while protecting jobs. Corporate welfare, but it got the job done, and was often a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Gravity

    Oh twice as much ain't twice as goodAnd can't sustain like one half couldIt's wanting moreThat's gonna send me to my kneesSong: John MayerSome ups and downs from the last week of August ‘24. The good and bad, happy and sad, funny and mad, heroes and cads. The week that ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Ditch the climate double speak and get real

    Long stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:The Government announced changes to the Fast-Track Approvals Bill on Sunday, backing off from the contentious proposal to give ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to August 30

    The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts and talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest science of changing sea temperatures and which emissions policies actually work; on the latest from Ukraine, Gaza and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • This Govt’s infrastructure strategy depends on capital gains taxes & new road taxes

    Billions of dollars in value uplift was identified around the Transmission Gully project, but that was captured 100% by landowners and not shared to pay for the project. Now National is saying value capture should be used for similar projects. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/ Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 30-August-2024

    Kia ora and welcome to the end of another week. Here’s our regular Friday roundup of things that caught our eye, in the realm of cities and transport. If you enjoy these roundups, feel free to join our growing ranks of supporters by making a recurring donation to keep the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Table Talk: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.

    That’s the sort of constitutional reform he favours: conceived in secret; revolutionary in intent; implemented incrementally without fanfare; and under no circumstances to be placed before the electorate for democratic ratification.TO SAY IT WAS RAINING would have understated seriously the meteorological conditions. Simply put, it was pissing down. One of ...
    1 week ago
  • Big Norm and Chris Hipkins

    It’s 50 years ago today that “Big Norm” Kirk died of a heart attack in Wellington’s Home of Compassion. Home of Compassion. Although he was Prime Minister for only 623 days, he has an iconic place in New Zealand history, particularly Labour history. When Labour leaders like Jacinda Ardern recite ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #35 2024

    Open access notables Arctic glacier snowline altitudes rise 150 m over the last 4 decades, Larocca et al., The Cryosphere: We mapped the snowline (SL) on a subset of 269 land-terminating glaciers above 60° N latitude in the latest available summer, clear-sky Landsat satellite image between 1984 and 2022. The mean SLA was extracted ...
    1 week ago
  • Unravelling the String of State: New Zealand Sovereignty and the Treaty of Waitangi

    Oh dear. Sometimes people just need to prod the sleeping dog. We currently have a parliamentary dispute over the nature of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi, as signed between the British Crown and New Zealand Maori: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/526451/sovereignty-debate-split-on-party-lines Specifically, the National Government takes the traditional view that Maori ceded sovereignty ...
    1 week ago
  • Rigour, PLEASE

    You may have noticed I have been taking my time getting home. You may have wondered if that might have anything to do with our brave little nation being constitutionally and morally abused by this woeful excuse for a government. It does. I have enjoyed being able to turn the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Making A Difference.

    The Jacinda and Ashley Show: Before the neoliberals could come up with a plausible reason for letting thousands of their fellow citizens perish, the Ardern-led government, backed by the almost forgotten power of an unapologetically interventionist state, was producing changes in the real world – changes that were, very obviously, saving ...
    1 week ago

  • Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations

    A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report.  “It will have the mandate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Passport wait times back on-track

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New appointments to the FMA board

    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • District Court judges appointed

    Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand

    Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender

    New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease

    Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Improving access to finance for Kiwis

    5 September 2024  The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says.  “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia

    As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer

    Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations.   “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • More choice and competition in building products

    A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul

    On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • International tourism continuing to bounce back

    Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency

    The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says.  “That is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape

    The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government backs women in horticulture

    “The Government is empowering women in the horticulture industry by funding an initiative that will support networking and career progression,” Associate Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Grigg says.  “Women currently make up around half of the horticulture workforce, but only 20 per cent of leadership roles which is why initiatives like this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government to pause freshwater farm plan rollout

    The Government will pause the rollout of freshwater farm plans until system improvements are finalised, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “Improving the freshwater farm plan system to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers is a priority for this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Milestone reached for fixing the Holidays Act 2003

    Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says yesterday Cabinet reached another milestone on fixing the Holidays Act with approval of the consultation exposure draft of the Bill ready for release next week to participants.  “This Government will improve the Holidays Act with the help of businesses, workers, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New priorities to protect future of conservation

    Toitū te marae a Tāne Mahuta me Hineahuone, toitū te marae a Tangaroa me Hinemoana, toitū te taiao, toitū te tangata. The Government has introduced clear priorities to modernise Te Papa Atawhai - The Department of Conservation’s protection of our natural taonga. “Te Papa Atawhai manages nearly a third of our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti

    A new 110km/h speed limit for the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) has been approved to reduce travel times for Kiwis travelling in and out of Wellington, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • IVL increase to ensure visitors contribute more to New Zealand

    The International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) will be raised to $100 to ensure visitors contribute to public services and high-quality experiences while visiting New Zealand, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality Matt Doocey and Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka say. “The Government is serious about enabling the tourism sector ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Delivering priority connections for the West Coast

    A record $255 million for transport investment on the West Coast through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s road and rail links to keep people connected and support the region’s economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “The Government is committed to making sure that every ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Road and rail reliability a focus for Wellington

    A record $3.3 billion of transport investment in Greater Wellington through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will increase productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. We're focused on delivering transport projects ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Record investment to boost economic and housing growth in the Waikato

    A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Waikato through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more efficient, safe, and resilient roading network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “With almost a third of the country’s freight travelling into, out ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Building reliable and efficient roading for Taranaki

    A record $808 million for transport investment in Taranaki through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Taranaki’s roads carry a high volume of freight from primary industries and it’s critical we maintain efficient connections across the region to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Supporting growth and resilience in Otago and Southland

    A record $1.4 billion for transport investment in Otago and Southland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more resilient and efficient network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in Otago ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Delivering connected and resilient roading for Northland

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