Can This Government Be Saved?

Written By: - Date published: 5:43 pm, March 25th, 2022 - 118 comments
Categories: act, covid-19, economy, elections, grant robertson, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, maori party, national - Tags:

Politics, in the phrase of ex-US Attorney General William Barr, is just one damn thing after another.

It is especially the case with this Labour government.

Can Labour win a third term? I will leave the question of ought they to your own voting pen.

Let’s look at some pathways up, and pathways down.

Top 5 Things That Will Get Them There

1. Coalition Potential

The Green Party are bobbing comfortably around 8-11%. They have done nothing of note, offered no support other than key legislation and budget, and kept their hands so clean to get that result. This is the 10% coalition partner Labour needs for another shot.
The Maori Party are the coalition hinge, since likely to retain two. But they are so incoherent that they may as well stitch the For Sale signs on their backs. Time for Labour’s Maori caucus to work as a caucus.

2. Leadership of Prime Minister Ardern

So much depends on the last two months of campaign of head-to-heads, and Labour remain strong here. Her support among her Labour base remains very strong among women, even if corroded within the general public. Her message discipline extends to her entire Cabinet and caucus. No major reshuffles, all scandals and investigations squashed, not a hair out of place. Her to-camera coherence and intelligence still remain an electoral asset. I had thought that Clark would waste Key in debate back in 2008, so I wouldn’t write off Luxon v Ardern. But Ardern is still in her prime and is still an electoral asset – if she can revive in 2022.

3. Minister of Finance Robertson

As Cullen had to in 2005, to win a third term Roberston will have to pull something out of the bag big enough to shift a clear wavering mass back into the Probable Labour vote box. National are now really weak in finance. Robertson has proven to be the power behind the throne in both terms, and he’s an asset Labour need to sell harder to the electorate.

4. Economy

Ours remains one of the strongest economies in the OECD. Headline unemployment and under-utilisation is going to stay at record low levels while international labour movement remains constrained. Economic confidence is sliding down as it gets harder to figure where to invest for those who have such means, and harder to make ends meet for the rest. Over-heating, production limits, and inflation are signals of continuing success. Labour will be rightly trumpeting its successes and its increased support for so many.

5. Delivery

Surprisingly, the second half of this term is where the big openings are. Transmission Gully opens in weeks. Waikato Bypass opens late this year. Cycleways in Dunedin, Wellington and Auckland late this year and early next. Te Ara Tuhono to Wellsford opens end of this year. Dunedin Hospital will start to see big steel girders come out of the ground this year. Invercargill Central opens. Labour have also delivered deeper and deeper subsidies for families, workers, old people, beneficiaries, companies, and more. The massive Woman’s World Football Cup 2023 will link Australia and New Zealand into our biggest sporting stage. The electoral question is: will this delivery be sold well enough to turn into votes?

Top 5 Things That Will Stop Labour

1. Luxon Romance

He’s as mild and small-c conservative as Ardern. He’s at least as fresh to power as she was in 2017. In the evangelical core he can bring double the votes that there are in Labour Party members. Many media are turning against Ardern towards Luxon as the inoffensive alternative. His caucus is united if dull, but then TBH so is Labour’s. Men over 40 want a man for PM again. Labour’s top team are as haggard as their public servants. The big end of town appreciate an ex-Chief Executive and their proxy advertising dollar will follow. Luxon cancels out most of Ardern’s advantages and has none of her growing drag of baggage weight.

2. A Further Major COVID Variant Outbreak

Nothing Labour could do about it now: their support would wither either way if they had to reimpose social controls, or bail out the economy again, or just let it burn through the population with higher deaths in order to stay competitive with our neighbours. This would tank what is sinking them already.

3. A Good Speech, and Proxies

I’m not sure if Luxon has an Orewa Speech in him. I’m not sure if he wants to do a full-throated support of Howl of a Protest farmers. I am more sure that John Key could organise proxy speakers to point the way with some electrifying electoral sizzle to steal 4% in a bump. Would National actually gain rural votes by opposing the 3-Waters policy? If National take the Auckland mayoralty and a majority on Council, they gain a more active proxy than Labour did from their putative 2-term dominance

4. Housing

Every year there are doomsayers who say our private debt exposure through mortgages is too high, and there are more of them now. It would take quite a confluence of events, but this doesn’t smell like 1988 quite yet. Let’s see in 12 months. It’s hard to forecast how much of an electoral impact a house price fall would have since National housing policies would be difficult to defend electorally.

5. Tax

If there’s a Labour Kryptonite, it’s tax. This is the Pavlovian Dog of voting. It’s not fair, not fun, not economically effective, and constrains future governments. But it shifts the mood to “what’s in it for me” and coldly alters public discourse towards National. If Labour can’t answer this question in dollars and cents they will lose.

118 comments on “Can This Government Be Saved? ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Hongi Ika 1
    25 March 2022 at 5:53 pm

    If Winston NZF can win the Tauranga BY Election it could throw the spanner in thee works ?

  2. McFlock 2
    25 March 2022 at 6:08 pm

    A lot of it comes down to the budget.

    Masks are still popular, and vaccinations are widespread. some workplaces will ease off their vaccination requirements, but I know that some will also keep it as a basic part of the application process where applicable, like checking drivers' licenses.

    If we get a few months breathing room before the next variant, folks will really focus on other things. 3Waters pisses off some sectors, but housing and inflation will be big issues (especially with the fuel costs making groceries more expensive). The budget will be a big clue here, whether Labour chooses to advance out of the challenges or merely hunker down and wait to be squashed.

    They've had long enough to figure out why kiwibuild fucked up. Housing needs a new idea.

  3. pat 3
    25 March 2022 at 6:15 pm

    Too early for this….the outcome will ultimately be predicated on the economy, which isnt looking to be too flash in a years time

  4. Binders full of women 4
    25 March 2022 at 6:30 pm

    They only need to do two things..

    1) Bin 3 Waters

    2) Avoid dumb-spend eg $195m for 28 people a day (none of them Labour MPs) to catch a Hamilton-Auckland train (1800s tech), and $70k for anti vax art FFS.

    Am I allowed a 3rd one— do something about Robbo & Orr –10+% inflation is a bad look.

    • DB Brown 4.1
      26 March 2022 at 8:29 am

      What's your critique of 3 waters – or are you too busy looking through your binders?

      What's your problem with artists being paid?

      What's your problem with trains? Te Huia line got hit by covid and shut down, but numbers were climbing making your statement nonsense.

      https://www.tehuiatrain.co.nz/assets/Te-Huia/Patronage-reports/Te-Huia-patronage-data-to-February-2022.pdf

      Do you have something original to contribute or do you only operate on repeat mode?

      • Binders full of women 4.1.1
        26 March 2022 at 8:39 am

        No problem with trains. I love trains and was a regular train user in Japan and UK- high density cities where car travel would have been literally impossible. My problem is with ill thought out big spends (bike bridge= yes, no, Dominion Rd= prob never gonna happen). What I hate is seeing $195m Ham-Auck train for 28 people and how many state houses (or even better Greens progressive ownership model)- like about 600- that couil have been built for that money. I'm sick of seeing families with children living in cars in this country.

      • Gypsy 4.1.2
        26 March 2022 at 3:16 pm

        "but numbers were climbing making your statement nonsense."

        From your own source:

        In the 5 weeks after the line reopened, the daily averages have been 96, 88, 76, 61, 85. That looks like a steady downward trend, apart from the final week.

        It's even worse when you look at the 4 weeks before the covid shut down (to 17th August), when the daily average were 139, 121, 115, 113.

        Rather than climbing, the patronage or that period was a downward spiral.

        In December 2021, a report for HCC found that Te Huia had earned $300,000 and cost $3m, and "the weekday service is tracking 49 per cent below business case projections, and 28 per cent below Covid-adjusted projections".

        It's a dog. Shoot it.

        • Incognito 4.1.2.1
          26 March 2022 at 3:51 pm

          That looks like a steady downward trend, apart from the final week.

          LOL! You obviously have very little or no experience with statistics and probabilities. Beginners often want to exclude the points that they don’t like calling them ‘outliers’. Beginners also believe because a data set appears to trend down it is a real effect. In your case, it seems you’re looking for something that suits your narrative, as you did with your ridiculous and self-invented “total Global Population Mortality Rate”. Even so, I wouldn’t shoot ‘the dog’ because you can teach even an old dog new tricks.

          • Gypsy 4.1.2.1.1
            26 March 2022 at 4:50 pm

            "self-invented “total Global Population Mortality Rate”. "

            It seems strange you hadn't previously encountered this. It is one of the headline measurements used at worldometers, a site you yourself linked to. You can also see it used at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality, https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ etc.

            "You obviously have very little or no experience with statistics and probabilities. "

            You seem confused. A 'trend' is a general direction in which something is developing or changing.

            The last seven weeks of the dataset DB used to claim patronage was increasing shows it was actually declining. That is the ‘trend’ over that 7 weeks.

            But just for you, I went back even further. As per above, the average daily patronage for 16/8/21 was 113, the fourth week in succession when the daily patronage had declined. The 6 weeks between 14/6 and 19/7 averaged 133, a decline from an average of 122 for the four weeks to 16/8.

            So go back all you like, the trend is down. $3m spent and $300k earned. It's a dog.

            • DB Brown 4.1.2.1.1.1
              26 March 2022 at 4:53 pm

              You just make shit up. Not worth engaging. Enjoy your delusions and your petty peeves.

            • Incognito 4.1.2.1.1.2
              26 March 2022 at 5:43 pm

              I thought and still think it is futile to counter misguided individuals who make up their own artificial statistics and give it an air of authority to help construct their own personal narrative. In other words, it was and still is BS – there’s no such metric as “total Global Population Mortality Rate” and using Google I could only find one hit and “Global Population Mortality Rate” [without punctuation within] resulted in only ten (10) hits, which should tell you enough.

              You seem confused about trends and trend lines and you appear to base your a priori conclusions on an extrapolation of the data beyond the measured interval or time period. It’s a classical rookie mistake. Until you have more data points within the measured interval and/or more data beyond the measured interval all bets are off, literally, i.e. you’re gambling with the odds stacked against you.

              Nice try, must do better.

              • Gypsy …
                26 March 2022 at 6:19 pm

                Why did you only google "total Global Population Mortality Rate"? Some kind of confirmation bias, perhaps?

                Google 'global population mortality rate' and you get 1,530,000 results.

                Google 'covid population mortality rate' and you get 1,430,000,000 results, including the site you have quoted – worldometers.

                When you go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, the data includes a column titled 'Deaths per 1M pop". That is the population mortality rate for covid.

                You may not have heard of it, but PMR is simply the number of deaths from a specific or all causes, and it is a statistic used by the CIA, the world bank, the WHO, and on and on.

                I'd recommend you google "what is population mortality rate."

                EDIT: You also might want to have a chat to Drowsy – he’s just used the same measure https://thestandard.org.nz/government-announces-significant-changes-to-traffic-light-settings-and-mandates/#comment-1878922.

                • Drowsy M. Kram …
                  26 March 2022 at 6:40 pm

                  EDIT: You also might want to have a chat to Drowsy – he’s just used the same measure

                  Indeed I have, if only to highlight the farcical nature of Gypsy's PMR comparisons. I don’t share Gypsy’s pandemic priorities.

                  Consider that if NZ had a population mortality rate for COVID-19 (from 1 January 2021 until now) corresponding to that of the USA (0.19%), then ~9500 Kiwis would have died, rather than the ~187 (217 – 30) that have (tragically) died.

                  A stunning achievement well worth celebrating, imho.

                  Two years since NZ first locked down – Expert Reaction
                  [21 March 2022]

                  “New Zealand needs to continue investing in public health and pandemic control infrastructure: Colleagues and I have summarised some of the key lessons from the first two years of the pandemic in a Conversation article to mark the two-year anniversary of the first confirmed Covid-19 case in New Zealand. Our major conclusion is that taking a highly proactive public health response to the pandemic has given New Zealand some of the best health, wellbeing, and economic outcomes seen globally.

                  “New Zealand was the first country to publish an elimination strategy for responding to the Covid-19 pandemic. This response minimised harms to the population and economy during the first 18 months of the pandemic until effective vaccines became widely available. Since then, New Zealand has shifted its response in a highly strategic way to suppression and now mitigation. This strategic approach has given the country the lowest Covid-19 mortality in the OECD and increased life expectancy.

                  “As the Omicron pandemic wave will soon start to recede, it is appropriate to lessen many pandemic control measures, such as border entry restrictions and the ‘Traffic Light’ system. At the same time, New Zealand needs to maintain a set of key control measures that can be turned up or down depending on the future evolution of the pandemic.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 6:48 pm

                    Thanks for confirming I didn't make the PMR up.smiley
                    Good ‘cherry pick’ with the US too.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 7:20 pm

                    "I believe that your point was:"

                    Yep. that was my point. You've conveniently chosen the US (with a population density twice that of NZ, and Canada, which has land borders with 13 states of the US.

                    And why 'english speaking'? Taiwan has a population density 38 times higher than NZ, but has a lower PMR.

                    • Muttonbird …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:07 pm

                      What's all this about cherry picking? :roll:

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:49 pm

                      Knock yourself out with Ireland: 4,427 notified deaths from 1 Jan 2021 (because that’s your starting point, for whatever reason; the grand total is 6,710 deaths) with a population size that’s very similar to New Zealand.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:50 pm

                      What's all this about cherry picking? laugh

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:20 pm

                    "Imho your bias has blinded you to the comparative successes Kiwis have enjoyed during the pandemic. "

                    Of course we've enjoyed success. Some of that is due to the governments response in 2020, some due to an accident of geography. But there have been slips, and significant ones. And that applies to most countries in the world.

                • Incognito …
                  26 March 2022 at 8:22 pm

                  Why did you only google "total Global Population Mortality Rate"? [my italics]

                  Well, I did not do that. I did exactly what I said I did and found 1 and 10 proper hits, respectively. I used the terms that you yourself invented. So, the bias is all yours, I’m afraid.

                  It appears that you don’t know how to do a proper search with Google, which explains a lot of your misguided nonsense.

                  As I said before, it’s futile to try counter your BS, as it is obvious it only exists in your imagination and even Google supports this conclusion.

                  BTW, Drowsy did not use the exact same terms; can you spot the difference?

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 8:44 pm

                    You seem to think there is a difference when you add the words 'total' or 'global'. I'm not sure why you really can't see this. It' snot rocket science.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:59 pm

                      The difference is that you merged them and made up a new ‘hybrid statistic’ that nobody else uses, in any given context. This should tell you that you are the only one in the Google universe who uses them and gives them that special meaning that you think they have. You even called it a ‘neat statistical fact’. It is ‘neat’ because it fits neatly into your narrative.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:12 pm

                      Imho your bias has blinded you to the comparative successes Kiwis have enjoyed during the pandemic. Not only "in 2020" – the whole shebang. Our response has not been perfect, obviously, but is clearly better than most – you'd have to be blind not to see it.

                      I'll not be wasting any more time trying to unravel your COVID 'analyses', which should suit us both very well indeed.

                      New Zealand's Covid-19 response still one of the best worldwide – Michael Baker [28 Feb. 2022]
                      Baker said he is still optimistic about the future, highlighting that life expectancy in New Zealand has risen by about eight months over the course of the pandemic…

                      What do the data show for the 2019-2021 country rankings?

                      Two features carry over from previous editions of the World Happiness Report. First, there is still a lot of year-to-year consistency in the way people rate their lives in different countries. Since we do our ranking on a three-year average, information is carried forward from one year to the next (See Figure 1 of Statistical Appendix 1 for individual country trajectories). For the fifth year in a row, Finland continues to occupy the top spot, with a score significantly ahead of other countries in the top ten. Denmark continues to occupy second place, with Iceland up from 4th place last year to 3rd this year. Switzerland is 4th, followed by the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The top ten are rounded out by Sweden, Norway, Israel and New Zealand. The following five are Austria, Australia, Ireland, Germany, and Canada. This marks a substantial fall for Canada, which was 5th in the first World Happiness Report. The rest of the top 20 include the United States at 16th (up from 19th last year), the United Kingdom, and Czechia still in 17th and 18th, followed by Belgium at 19th, and France at 20th, its highest ranking yet.
                      https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2022/happiness-benevolence-and-trust-during-covid-19-and-beyond/

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:03 pm

                    "The difference is that you merged them and made up a new ‘hybrid statistic’ that nobody else uses, in any given context."

                    Rubbish. The words total and global don't change the meaning in the context at all. And the are the same words I included in a post you twice responded to before pretending not to understand it.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:14 pm

                      You’re calling me a liar and you pretend that context does not matter. Point is nobody uses these words in the same combination as you do. You’re alone and on your own. Accept it.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:22 pm

                    "Point is nobody uses these words in the same combination as you do. "

                    And yet it is obvious you knew what I meant.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:29 pm

                      Nope, it was not. For example, I still don’t know the presumed difference, in your mind, between “total Global PMR” and “Global PMR”, if there’s any, which I now sincerely doubt. It all looked like BS to me, which is why I did not pursue it. Today, you have confirmed my worst suspicions. Moreover, you have repeatedly accused me of lying.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:37 pm

                    "“total Global PMR” and “Global PMR”, "

                    Why is the word 'total' so important to you? I think you're just getting desperate. You knew what i meant, you’re responses show that.

                    [You used them and made them up, you explain them and show evidence that they are bone fide stats as used by others. Good luck – Incognito]

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 10:06 pm

                    "You used them and made them up, you explain them and show evidence that they are bone fide stats as used by others. G"

                    I have. And you demonstrated you knew exactly what they meant. And, other posters have used them (plural).

                    [You need to provide external links in which others have used those exact terms as used by you. Stop beating around the bush and back up your artificial constructs. Other commenters may have gone along with you, to a point, and that’s both disappointing and frustrating because there’s no basis for it other than that you made them up. My BS detector is set more sensitive than most here, particularly when it relates to stats and self-invented metrics (or definitions) associated with Covid – Incognito]

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 10:38 pm

                    "You need to provide external links in which others have used those exact terms as used by you. "

                    Are you serious? You know what the words mean. You read them and went straight to the conclusion. I can only assume you are dancing around trying to justify yourself because I pointed that out.

                    [Yup, now I am deadly serious, thanks to you – Incognito]

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 11:03 pm

                    "Well done! "

                    Thanks. Let's call it a night.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 11:05 pm

                      My work here is not done yet, but I’m going to take a break and a drink – I have deserved both!

                    • weka …
                      27 March 2022 at 10:32 am

                      If you use the last reply button in a thread, rather than going back an indent, conversations will be easier to follow. Just find the comment you want to reply to, and scroll back up to the first Reply button in line with that comment.

                      Also, sometimes comments get held back because there are too many links, or a moderator has set the commenter to premod (meaning comments need to be released manually).

              • Gypsy …
                26 March 2022 at 6:21 pm

                "You seem confused about trends and trend lines "

                Nope. I gave you a common definition of trend, and my comments have been specific to DB's false claim that the "numbers were climbing ".

                • Incognito …
                  26 March 2022 at 8:29 pm

                  You seem to think a trend means an actual and real change over time in a certain direction. Based on those daily average numbers over 5 and 4 weeks, respectively, you cannot draw this conclusion, as these trends could easily have been caused by chance alone. You see, before you draw any conclusions, you should run a test of sorts and your confirmation bias is not an appropriate test by any means. It’s all in your head, again.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 8:45 pm

                    I gave you a definition of trend, which was fairly common. A trend can be demonstrated over 5 weeks. It can also be demonstrated over a longer period of time, as I did.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:52 pm

                      Don’t be thick. A trend means nothing until you know it is not caused by random chance. From the data provided you cannot draw this conclusion (yet). Stop talking out of your arse.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:05 pm

                    "A trend means nothing until you know it is not caused by random chance. "

                    Now you are being silly. A trend is a trend. You can see trends in randomly generated data.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:11 pm

                      You can see trends in randomly generated data.

                      Yes, you can, and that’s exactly the point: it may or may not be real. Why can’t you get this through your thick skull? When you do this in daily life it is a form of delusion (aka apophenia or patternicity).

              • Gypsy …
                26 March 2022 at 9:01 pm

                "You made up these two terms"

                I didn't make up any terms. But what I do find interesting is that after I used the term "total Global Population Mortality Rate" here, you replied here and here without questioning it. And in the first post you wrote "Rank Countries by Deaths/1M pop" so you knew exactly what it meant.

                • Incognito …
                  26 March 2022 at 9:06 pm

                  Nope. Which is why I picked a term that I do understand and straight from an existing table in which the rank order can be changed interactively online. I wasn’t about to counter an artificial construct made up by you. However, when you again showed your ignorance about stats today, I decided to dig a little deeper. I was shocked that even with Google I could only find less than a dozen proper hits.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:09 pm

                    Bullshit. You specifically responded to my comment with a reference to ""Rank Countries by Deaths/1M pop"". You knew exactly what I meant.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:13 pm

                    Oh dear. And here, in response to me using the term "total Global Population Mortality Rate" you wrote "You have not provided a link, but it seems to me that you’re out by a large factor."

                    You said I was out about a statistic you don't think is a thing?

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:24 pm

                      Whatever you did and however you came to result of 2,500 deaths in NZ, it made no sense. It also made no sense when I looked at the table online, without any mental acrobatics, and could easily produce the projected number of 5,000 Covid-related deaths in NZ, which you labelled as “pure fantasy”.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:17 pm

                    "Are you calling me a liar?"

                    I hate that word. I think you knew what the term means, I think you know the term describes something entirely valid, but for some reason you've dug yourself a hole.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:34 pm

                    "Whatever you did and however you came to result of 2,500 deaths in NZ, it made no sense. It also made no sense when I looked at the table online, without any mental acrobatics, and could easily produce the projected number of 5,000 Covid-related deaths in NZ, which you labelled as “pure fantasy”."

                    That's one of the reasons I have used the post 2020 data, to eliminate a period before vaxxes were in play because if we're serious about the numbers, it's more accurate to use data that is relevant to the current situation.

                    I had explained here that the global PMR for 2021/22 is 0.053%.

                    If we apply that to NZ population of 4,917,000, we get 2,600 deaths.

                    The total global PMR (is since covid began) is 0.078%. Applying that to NZ population gives 3,826 deaths, still well short of 5,000. But I dispute that methodology because it includes almost a year of exposure without any vaccination.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:52 pm

                      You’re just repeating yourself and the higher the number becomes the more desperately you dispute it and the ‘methodology’. The only person who operates in “pure fantasy” is you.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 10:04 pm

                    "You’re just repeating yourself…"

                    I was answering your post.

                    "…and the higher the number becomes the more desperately you dispute it and the ‘methodology’.""

                    No, the number we have been discussing is the claim of 5,000 deaths in NZ. My view is that was never a reasonable assumption, and to demonstrate that i have used global averages for both the CMR and PMR.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 10:48 pm

                      Yes, by now we know your view all too well, thanks. And that you have laboured to dispel the number of 5,000 as “pure fantasy”. Instead, you could have used all the info and data provided to you on a platter in a plethora of comments to adjust and correct (or moderate) your views. You stubborn denial and obfuscation have become irksome, to say the least. I remember that you used to behave in the exact same way here on TS a while ago. It didn’t end well then either.

              • Gypsy …
                26 March 2022 at 9:07 pm

                "(because that’s your starting point, for whatever reason;"

                Because you obviously havn't been following, I explained that I use post 2020 data in some cases to look at a period when vaccinations were in play.

                • Incognito …
                  26 March 2022 at 9:17 pm

                  Vaccination rates are very different in different countries. It was a weak and arbitrary cut-off.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:26 pm

                    Arbitrary, yes. Weak, no. I started using it to give credit to NZ for our high vaccination rate.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:33 pm

                      Everything you’ve done is weak and piss-poor. You have no statistical knowledge and skills to allow you to have a go at other commenters about their perceived shortcomings and incorrect conclusions. Please stop now before I stop you from wasting more of our time.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:36 pm

                    You have no statistical knowledge and skills to allow you to have a go at other commenters "

                    It's funny you say that because you've not been able to show what's actually wrong in what I’ve posted.

                    [I have told you many times, but you refuse to listen. For example, the trends in those daily averages are not statistically significant, i.e. you cannot exclude the possibility that they were caused by chance alone. I’m giving you a warning now to stop wasting time here. You can re-join the convo when you demonstrate you actually have some basic statistics knowledge and skills – Incognito]

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 10:09 pm

                    "For example, the trends in those daily averages are not statistically significant, i.e. you cannot exclude the possibility that they were caused by chance alone."

                    Of course I can't, but you're missing the point. DB claimed the trend was up. Even if the trends are not statistically significant, even if they were caused by chance, the trend is not up. You're just not thinking straight tonight.

                    [You claimed the following here (https://thestandard.org.nz/can-this-government-be-saved/#comment-1878884):

                    That looks like a steady downward trend, apart from the final week.

                    …

                    … the patronage or [sic] that period was a downward spiral.

                    By your own admission you cannot draw these conclusions just as DB could not support his claim with those data. I’ll put you in Pre-Moderation until I have caught up with your other denials and until I have decided how long you take time off here – Incognito]

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 10:23 pm

                      Mod note

                    • Gypsy …
                      26 March 2022 at 10:32 pm

                      "That looks like a steady downward trend, apart from the final week."

                      Because that's what what it does look like. I didn't try to explain the trend or justify it. I simply showed DB was wrong. Get over yourself.

                      [And I showed that they are just random fluctuations in patronage until one can conclude otherwise with more data and/or longer periods – Incognito]

                    • Incognito []
                      26 March 2022 at 10:39 pm

                      Mod note

  5. Patricia Bremner 5
    25 March 2022 at 6:45 pm

    Can this Government be saved?

    A loaded question. "Have you stopped beating Jacinda Ardern because we have a Pandemic."

    Is the glass half full or half empty? I guess for some it is always half empty, it will be…

    Those who feel this Government has questioned their God given right to be superior.

    Those who are not used to considering community.

    Those who feel money gives them power.

    Those who feel "What's in it for me?"

    Those of us who know that every strategy will be brought to bear to bring this PM and Government down, should call it out when we see it.

    Life is not perfect….But…

    Show me a perfect Pandemic response.

    Show me strategies to meet needs.

    Show me Policies with people and planet at their heart.

    Show me pride in who we are and our wonderful indigenous culture.

    Show examples of Leadership and delivery to stop naysayers.

    Remind New Zealanders of their influence world wide.

    Labour members should begin donating to assist in countering the big money influence.

    The main reason to help keep this Government in place is no "Hollow Men" thanks.

  6. KJT 6
    25 March 2022 at 6:59 pm

    lost your last bit of remaining credibility when you mentioned the Greens.

    As so much of Labours progressive policies were originated by them.

    Labours re-election, and the chance of real progress for NZ, depend on a Labour/Green co-alition.

    You are as blinded as the Anti Jacinda mob.

  7. Stuart Munro 7
    25 March 2022 at 8:28 pm

    Ours remains one of the strongest economies in the OECD. Headline unemployment and under-utilisation is going to stay at record low levels

    Yes, we are aware that that is what Treasury is telling you – but it bears little resemblance to the picture for working people on the ground. Caught in a squeeze between decades of real estate inflation, the unregulated greed of a duopoly, together with fuel price rises and mortgage interest rates poised to surge, it doesn't feel like a strong economy at all.

    Our productivity remains stubbornly low – which means lots of shitty jobs, and little in the way of prospects. Pretty soon we'll have a new tranche of cheap migrant workers (NZ employers would die before they brought in actually skilled ones) to lock in the generational low real wages. Labour supporters have no reason to vote, and Luxton, with sufficient media life support (and the government failed to support a real news option that could interrogate that bullshit) will probably slip through on a wave of disenchantment.

    • pat 7.1
      25 March 2022 at 10:01 pm

      That hoped for wave of immigrant labour is anticipated to be the critical factor in restraining wage grow and heading off an inflationary spiral….unfortunately for all concerned the debt levels are going to constrain spending regardless and the contraction will still occur.

      • Stuart Munro 7.1.1
        25 March 2022 at 10:07 pm

        Well cost of living growth hasn't been restrained – how poor do we have to get before Labour wake up to the fact that you can't pull that crap indefinitely? Are they all asleep?

        • pat 7.1.1.1
          25 March 2022 at 10:18 pm

          Are they asleep?…probably not, but they are out of options….hope is about all they have.

          Systemic change takes time…and they have run out.

  8. Just Saying 8
    25 March 2022 at 9:46 pm

    No.

    (Women are also general public. The days of imagining a large divide between the political interests of females (the majority btw) versus males is pretty much over now IMHO.)

    Adern's own-goal of first deliberately setting up vehement nation-wide scapegoating with dangerously divisive mandates in the context of many people who were wound up with fear and anger, then insisting on keeping them going when the rationale had become irrelevant, followed up with showing her true face as she refused to meet working-class scum, filth excrement etc., protesters: That was end game.

    Labour has always relied on a solid, if small, long-struggling, non-gentile poor vote and Adern ended it in that arrogance. Saying ''any death is one death too many'' already stuck in the throats of those of us who have lost loved ones because of reliance on grossly inadequate and underfunded public services. But in the beginning, I know I gave her the benefit of the doubt and hoped that ''kind''-ness and caring might actually extend to my people. As time wore on those painful words grew larger and were (metaphorically) choking us, as trillions went to the rich and the poor struggled even more and those health services were not improved one jot within the billions that magically appeared because anything that might threaten the comfortable actually matters. Just as those who have always struggled don't and never will to the likes of the Aderns in this world. I don't think many at TS got that. There is just too much class division, in just who we talk to, let alone listen to or even notice.

    There were also greater numbers of mandate opposers in the wider electorate than the government and the comfortably-off were aware of. Not granny-killers who are selfish and rich, but who were aware from reading overseas data that such measures were killing more people without covid than they were saving from covid. Tradies, the underemployed precariat etc….. The bullshit slurs really didn't go down.

    The beltway keeps misreading the electorate. (Also, for far too long, the evidence apparently.) That doesn't matter to parties who are not reliant on a marginalised vote. It does matter for Labour.

    This every-election voter will never vote Labour or Green again. I think there might be some off-beat independents that might make a good protest vote if I just can't bring myself to put a mark against National on the day. Maybe getting drunk will do the trick.

    • SPC 8.1
      25 March 2022 at 10:44 pm

      And what exactly did the Greens do to have you consider National and not them …

      • Just Saying 8.1.1
        25 March 2022 at 10:52 pm

        The Greens are part of this government and supported this anti-poor viciousness every step along the way.

        There may be no way to establish a parliamentary left, but if it is necessary to actively oppose the pretenders, that's just a bullet that has to be bitten.

        • Muttonbird 8.1.1.1
          25 March 2022 at 10:57 pm

          Most poor people got vaccinated like everyone else. Antivaxers aren't defined by their income, just their idiocy.

          • Just Saying 8.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2022 at 11:19 pm

            Ffs It was about the mandate. Guess what? I'm vaccinated.

            You really need to get with your government's belated changing narrative. Even they are now anti-mandate.

            And just as an aside, it looks like the protest was the most successful in decades. Time for for protestors to ditch the twinsets and ham-up the slurs. If the nay-sayers are accusing you of being anti-vaccers who believe earth is being bombarded by some kind of dangerous rays, its time to really take the piss and don the tinfoil hats.

            • Muttonbird 8.1.1.1.1.1
              25 March 2022 at 11:23 pm

              Guess what? I'm vaccinated.

              Guess what? I don't give a shit.

              Anti-mandate, anti-vax, anti-establishment, anti-social. It’s all the same thing.

              • Just Saying …
                25 March 2022 at 11:48 pm

                Ta Muttonbird, but its not the same thing.

                No point in saying scum like me don't deserve democratic rights like protest. Don't really deserve to live. There's nothing you can do that could express contempt better than your Prime Minister has already done.

                • SPC …
                  26 March 2022 at 12:12 am

                  The Greens are part of this government and supported this anti-poor viciousness every step along the way.

                  This is not an evidence based statement.

                • Patricia Bremner …
                  26 March 2022 at 12:27 pm

                  Just Saying, nothing we can say will likely alter your view. You have accused tried and convicted the target of your anger.

                  You ignore the death threats made, the blatant cruel lies about her partner, the very real threats made against the Health Minister, and rail against the failure to "front and talk".

                  When the behaviour is so deliberately provoking, leaderless by design, who would have talked? There was a list of plainly unreasonable demands put forward. Not many had anything to do with mandates. That came later, as one reason for gathering such differing groups.

                  Now I wrote here I did not agree with the Speaker's actions. They were childish and mean turning on the sprinklers. That just hardened attitudes.imo.

                  The whole pandemic declared by the WHO has been hard for many, and yes harder for those who had less to begin with. Everyone is "over it", and the Government you accuse of not listening, has changed the mandates, something the PM is on record as not favouring. So as the pandemic has changed responses have changed. “Anti poor viciousness”
                  Please explain that statement.

                  I wonder if your pain and anger is loss related. I am sorry if this is the case. We are currently dealing with a case of long covid, and the loss of a friend who missed cancer treatments just one time to many.

        • SPC 8.1.1.2
          25 March 2022 at 11:09 pm

          It is not a coalition government. The Greens are not part of the government – they have no members in Cabinet.

          They had no part in determining government policy, except as per their agreement – and related limited portfolio areas (outside Cabinet) to implement.

    • DB Brown 8.2
      26 March 2022 at 8:40 am

      Perpetual victims.

      Go do something useful for society rather than just yourself you might actually feel better.

      • Just Saying 8.2.1
        26 March 2022 at 10:20 am

        Thanks for telling us who we are. Again. I can promise you I'll be doing something a lot more useful than supporting the so-called-left.

        The irony is, you all were being warned because that's what comrades do. But nah you'd rather lose the election. That's some powerful hatred you got going there.

        • DB Brown 8.2.1.1
          26 March 2022 at 10:37 am

          "Powerful hatred"

          "You all were being warned"

          Hilarious. But you're not suffering from victimhood, right?

          Assuming you'll not be supporting the powerful hatred and blindness of the left… you'll be embracing the open arms of right wings ‘anything goes so long as we own the libs’ philosophy?

          Gosh.

          • Just Saying 8.2.1.1.1
            26 March 2022 at 11:28 am

            No DB, I won't be embracing the right wing. This isn't a team sport. It is not jerseys and brands, or a marketing 'phenomenon'. I'm trying to talk, not to score points.

            • DB Brown 8.2.1.1.1.1
              26 March 2022 at 12:18 pm

              It's all a bit mixed messaging, again, isn't it. You just want to talk?

              You've not understood how untenable, irresponsible and downright anti-social it is to be anti-vax or anti-vax adjacent in a pandemic. Why would talking any more make any difference to your warped perceptions of self above it all.

              • Just Saying …
                26 March 2022 at 12:41 pm

                Back to this again.

                It was already a fait accompli. There was no logical rationale to continue with the scapegoating because covid could not be held back. Not even China's unique control is working. The arguments about the possible consequences and why we had to carry on directing the national fear at the undocumented – it was just magical thinking and it was all unravelling.

                Even the change of policy and rhetoric and beginning to live the reality doesn't make any difference to you? When is reality going to kick in?

                Whose self above all DB? All the bollocks about working as a team and who was being harmed in reality? Who was never in the fucking team? Whose lives never have and apparently never will matter? And who was actually being selfish and self-indulgent?

            • Patricia Bremner 8.2.1.1.1.2
              26 March 2022 at 12:47 pm

              What is the warning? Who is being warned? What needs to be done? Who do you see as having powerful hatred towards those who have little.? Keep talking, as even though people take a stance, talking is important as you pointed out. Anger can cause withdrawal as well of course.

              • Just Saying …
                26 March 2022 at 1:17 pm

                During this I was falling over myself to be reasonable in the face of the most intense hate speech I've ever experienced. I, and others who left early in the piece, were trying to ''warn'' the left on this site that this was out of control.

                You accuse me of hatred. I've met, really liked some of the people on here. Before, we could talk and were comrades of a kind. How quickly I could become scum, filth, shit, worthless trash…. One beyond the pale who could not be listened to. Because of what exactly? Covid could not be stopped. That's a fact. It was a fact long before it was officially decreed in NZ.

                I was trying to suggest we really needed a plan to protect and nurture our most vulnerable. We needed to stop targeting and blaming and start working together. It couldn't be heard. The ''correct'' people weren't saying it. Not then. The scapegoating was doing real harm. Not feared in the future harm. And Covid Could Not Be Stopped.

                • DB Brown …
                  26 March 2022 at 1:25 pm

                  Still a victim.

                  Covid could not be stopped, but it could be slowed. You are wrong. It is an idiot statement to think nothing could be done.

                  You were subject to people facing an existential threat and you were adding to that threat. They called you names.

                  FFS. Get over yourself.

    • Anne 8.3
      26 March 2022 at 6:37 pm

      .. showing her true face as she refused to meet working-class scum, filth excrement etc., protesters

      Jesus you're twisted. Something is seriously wrong with your attitude. Do something about it.

      Btw, anyone who still can't spell the prime minister's surname correctly is not going to find many people who will bother reading their reckons.

  9. Muttonbird 9
    25 March 2022 at 10:37 pm

    I think they're doing fine. Don't forget this is a government which is making a massive effort to make things right for existing Kiwis before shipping in a whole lot of cheap labour and dirty money to create the illusion of a rock star economy.

    It's easy to turn the tap on and not care about the consequences, it's another to think carefully about managing a sustainable society. The majority of Kiwis now get this having seen both approaches. The left does the hard stuff. The right does the easy stuff.

    This goes for Three Waters too. The furious wank the white right wing of NZ seems to be enjoying over this perfectly sensible amalgamation and efficiency of resources shows they don’t do complicated. Cycleways, yes, fibre broadband using the cheap labour mentioned above, yes, but they refuse to fix decades of underspend.

    JA could do with a long break to recharge, spend time with her family, and get married. Once that is done she will be back, all smiles.

  10. Muttonbird 10
    25 March 2022 at 10:55 pm

    Oh, and Chris Luxton is no John Keys. Can't see him turning that around in 18 months. Besides which he has Bishop so high up and no-one trusts him at all.

    Mitchell and Brown sitting there with nothing to do since Simon inexplicably decided to quit…

    Watch out for further implosion from the National Party before the next election.

    • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 10.1
      26 March 2022 at 7:00 am

      Watch out for further implosion from the National Party before the next election.

      Here's hoping!

    • Blade 10.2
      26 March 2022 at 8:24 am

      Hope is an important thing…or maybe not. When they did a study of American soldiers captured during the Korean war they found those who were holding out hope of rescue didn't last long. Those soldiers who just concentrated on what was before them and surviving – neither holding false hope or despair, survived capture.

      Labour is believing they will be rescued by something…anything.

      Mitchell, for example, is up against Poto Williams. One down. Reality v Disneyland.

      You can bet if National win the election, there’s going to be trouble between Mitchell and Costa. Hopefully with the latter moving on.

      I think the voters now see through Labour and will vote accordingly.

      • Patricia Bremner 10.2.1
        26 March 2022 at 12:52 pm

        Arming the Police? Making money from Prison's Right Gotcha!! Mitchell!! Jeez!!

        • Blade 10.2.1.1
          26 March 2022 at 2:09 pm

          Arming the police would be a good and rational start. I notice you are great on rhetoric; short on solutions…as usual.

          Other POSSIBLE solutions.

          • A police trained public posse to assist police with controlling large crowds. Cameras to be worn at all times by posse members to make sure things don't turn into vigilantism.
          • Compulsory reading and writing lessons for all uneducated prisoners before they can access privileges. Educated prisoners would help out. No compliance means solitary confinement.

          *Reintroduce borstal boot camps. Same applies as in jails. Stern corporal punishment for young ferals who have never been told NO!

          • Reintroduction of three strikes for serious offences.
          • Bringing fear back into the law. Zero tolerance for disrespecting police, ambulance staff, nurses and other authority figures. Three months ad campaign warning of this new approach so ignorance of the law won't be an excuse.
          • General population for all corrupt police officers.
          • Introduction of corporate manslaughter legislation.
          • All school bullying becomes a police matter with short sharp borstal stays for chronic offenders.

          I could go on. Over to you. Let's hear your suggestions. Poto Williams…Jeez!

          • ozaki 10.2.1.1.1
            26 March 2022 at 2:56 pm

            "Zero tolerance for disrespecting police, ambulance staff, nurses and other authority figures." – yet met the parliament ground protestors?

          • DB Brown 10.2.1.1.2
            26 March 2022 at 5:22 pm

            Just a massive troll is what that was. I've grown passable flowers out of material such as yours. Not as rich as some I've heard but you had a good go.

            "Corporate manslaughter legislation"

            Ah, a man of the people I see. cheeky

            • Blade 10.2.1.1.2.1
              27 March 2022 at 10:45 am

              Highly strung I see. And short on a reply or counter suggestions. Take it easy. Maybe look around for another blog to infest?

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