Clark’s eye on the ball

Written By: - Date published: 10:32 pm, October 19th, 2008 - 81 comments
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While John Key  worried today about fine-tuning guarantees for bank deposits, Helen Clark was outlining how a Labour government if re-elected is already planning for the fast and decisive action that will be needed to protect jobs, build skills, and promote the research that will protect New Zealand’s economic future.

It is now clear that we are not just facing some offshore financial market problems caused by the sorts of speculative bubbles that John Key’s so-called business credentials are based on. The real economy is also in for a severe shock in all our markets, and the effects will be felt here.

Helen Clark quoted from a recent article by this year’s Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. He says that “while the manic-depressive stock market is dominating the headlines, the more important story is the grim news coming in about America’s real economy. It is now clear that rescuing the banks is just the beginning: the non-financial economy is in desperate need of help…retail sales have fallen off a cliff, and so has industrial production.”

Krugman says it is politically fashionable to rant against government spending – the sort of rant we have heard from Key and English, and Don Brash before them. National’s approach to the problems we are facing is a familiar failure – tax cuts for the rich, an axe to Kiwisaver, more jobless in prison, fire at will labour laws to depress wages, and cuts to government spending including research and development incentives.

Labour’s focus has always been on jobs and investment, and urgent action will be needed. At least Helen Clark’s plan shows she has got her eye on what really matters to New Zealanders.

81 comments on “Clark’s eye on the ball ”

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  1. rave 1
    19 October 2008 at 11:46 pm

    But it’s interesting how quickly Key and Co look to the public sector to rescue their underpants.
    Not only guaranteeing depositors in NZ but also the inter-bank debt. To stop these boys and girls from taking risks there will need to be strong oversight. I would say that if your doing this the private sector has no reason to exist. They are no more than coupon clippers.
    Why should they take a profit from simply taking our money, or that of overseas depositors with no risk?
    Second, Key is wild about using the Cullen find to bankroll his pet PPPs. Well, that’s just a variation on the bailout, since its injecting public money to give private investors confidence they can make profits for years to come.
    So if the Cullen fund puts up a stake, then John’s boys and girls borrow under a state guarantee to coupon clip their rent, what’s that but a dream plan for socialism for the rich bastards.
    I say if your going to use the taxes produced by workers to keep the capitalists afloat that’s a social wage for the bosses. I thought they were against welfare dependency. Silly me.
    I’m against welfare dependency too, especially for rich bastards.
    I say take them off the benefit and make them work like the rest of us.

  2. T-rex 2
    20 October 2008 at 4:01 am

    More general question:

    I’m aware of politicalstockmarket.co.nz

    Anyone know where you can take those odds with real money?

    Coz the answer sure isn’t centrebet…

    Anyone with some money to throw at it might want to look at the odds they’re giving on “next prime ministers”. I think all they really show is that most of the people with lots of money who like gambling back Key. Shock me shock me.

    Either way, I’ve put some war gold on helen, and if I can find anyone that’ll give me the more realistic political-stockmarket odds on Key (rather than centrebet, which is paying $1.15) then I’m gonna be in for a bit of good ‘ol arbitrage.

    If not, I’m fairly happy to stick with a possible 5:1 payout.

    All going well there’ll be double celebrations post election!

  3. dad4justice 3
    20 October 2008 at 7:10 am

    “At least Helen Clark?s plan shows she has got her eye on what really matters to New Zealanders.”

    She must need glasses, so she can see the deplorable world leading infanticide and child abuse figures !! What a disgusting situation and no policy in the pipeline to address the tragic indictment. She is having a ball at the childrens’ expense !!!
    Where is the pillbox appleboy?

  4. Carol 4
    20 October 2008 at 7:14 am

    Why was Key making headlines yesterday about wanting to be involved with faster bi-partisan decisions about the bank deposit scheme, while English on the NatRad debate said he was happy with what Cullen was doing on this? English said he was pleased with the time Cullen was taking to make careful decisions, had been kept infomed on the development of the plan, and wanted to keep with such a bi-partisan approach. Do Key and English not talk to each other, or does Key know exactly what’s going on, but wants to give the public the impression that he’s taking the lead, knows better than Cullen what to do, and is making all the running on the bank deposit scheme?

  5. outofbed 5
    20 October 2008 at 7:35 am

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/
    some money to be made on a Clark led Gov here too
    I don’t think people understand MMP

  6. appleboy 6
    20 October 2008 at 7:45 am

    well said Carol – Key is trying to play catch up after being sidelined last week with the announcement on deposit guarantees. The suggestion he has is already in progress and English has been briefed. Funny how he says one thing – let’s be bipartisan – and then fronted up on it this morning on national radio and as usual launched into his anything but bipartisan lines about 10 years of deficits. This claim has now been totally discredited (see Agenda interview yesterday).

  7. higherstandard 7
    20 October 2008 at 7:59 am

    AB

    The line about 10 years of deficits is completely bipartisan both National and Labour are in complete agreement that this is what they’ll be delivering – if neither party pull their finger out and make some hard decisions the deficits and length of them will also be longer than a decade.

    The reality is there has been very little if anything substantive from either Nat or Labour on what their plans are to shorten the length of or decrease the size of the deficits.

    I’m also not sure that Helen’s decision to use the current economic climate to trumpet the call for a continuance of Labour as good and competent economic managers will work as we have been sliding backwards on the OECD scale for some time now.

    [lprent: It is quite noticeable that we tend to drop backwards on the OECD scales when national has the treasury benches. They are pretty incompetent managers of the economy]

  8. higherstandard 8
    20 October 2008 at 8:08 am

    And on a separate note – good on Phil Goff

    From the Herald…

    Mr Goff received applause when, without naming Mr Peters or NZ First, he said: “The leader of one political party has again raised the issue of cutting immigration. I want to say that it is a tired old tactic to try to blame one section of the community for problems that they are not in any way responsible for.”

    Unlike that party, he said, Labour was “committed to a multicultural society where we welcome people from a wide range of countries”.

  9. dad4justice 9
    20 October 2008 at 8:10 am

    I thought the kiwi status on the OECD scale was in permanent negative direction mode?

    Maybe this post should be titled Clark eyes the OECD fall, forget the ball.

  10. Nick 10
    20 October 2008 at 8:34 am

    At least Helen Clark?s plan shows she has got her eye on what really matters to New Zealanders.’

    What plan?

    I have been listening and watching closely but cannot recall any plan apart from ACT’s 20 Point Plan.

  11. Janet 11
    20 October 2008 at 8:46 am

    I agree with Carol. It it obvious that Key and English are not communicating, and possibly have separate agendas. I notice from the DomPost today that John Key is having an extremely stage managed campaign with his minders not letting him meet any real people in case he can’t cope. Bill English is a much more seasoned politician with a much greater sense of the public mood.

  12. higherstandard 12
    20 October 2008 at 8:53 am

    Janet

    “Bill English is a much more seasoned politician with a much greater sense of the public mood.”

    I’d add that Helen Clark is a probably NZ’s most experienced and best political operator.

    Which begs the question as to why Key is doing so well in the preferred PM stakes, has read the public mood so well a number of times in the past 12 months (and failed on notable occasions) and has got National polling so well – are you suggesting National would be doping better with Bill English as Leader ?

  13. Carol 13
    20 October 2008 at 9:02 am

    Actually the last Fairfax-Nielsen/TV3 poll shows the gap between Key & Clark narrowing by 7 points on the preferred PM question.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/2214480

    Oct 19, 2008 7:29 AM
    “The poll, released on Saturday, shows Clark has made up some ground against National leader John Key in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.

    She is up five points to 35%, while Key is down two point to 43.”

  14. John Stevens 14
    20 October 2008 at 9:28 am

    Key is not doing well in preferred PM stakes? Name me one opposition leader who was more popular than the incumbent PM? There are none, even Shipley was ahead of Clark in the run up to the 1999 election, bar possibly 1 or 2 polls. Key has been ahead for over a year now.

    If Cullen does not sort out the interbank mess, see what you guys do when your employeer does not have the money to pay you in 2-3 months? A real merry Xmas will be had by all. Money is leaving NZ at a high rate because of this but Cullen does not think this is as big an issue that it is.

  15. Tara 15
    20 October 2008 at 9:43 am

    What is the timetable for future opinion polls ?

  16. Phil 16
    20 October 2008 at 9:45 am

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/
    some money to be made on a Clark led Gov here too
    I don’t think people understand MMP

    No, it’s just that you don’t understand markets.

  17. Greg 17
    20 October 2008 at 9:56 am

    “the sorts of speculative bubbles that John Key’s so-called business credentials are based on.”

    So called? What are Helen Clark’s business credentials and how are they better than John Key’s?

  18. vto 18
    20 October 2008 at 10:03 am

    Greg, Helen Clark has no business credentials.

  19. Chris 19
    20 October 2008 at 10:09 am

    what does it matter that helen has no business credentials? I just don’t see that as a selling point. Business managers = myopic, self-serving bonus gatherers always looking to promote themselves ahead of everyone else and taking credit for it regardless. Also generally not skilled in anything, just management. Key fits this well (btw for the last fucking time, FINANCE IS NOT ECONOMICS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

    At least clark is educated. Maybe National (key) will start making it compulsory for all schools to teach with corporate looking powerpoints so that we all get used to being the multi-national business park that the nats want us to be? “Innovation and independence be damned, they offered us more money for less now!!” (not a quote, but i figured it pretty much could be)

  20. vto 20
    20 October 2008 at 10:15 am

    Chris, you mean Clark is educated in the school of political deception. Her very own double-edged sword methinks.

  21. randal 21
    20 October 2008 at 10:19 am

    vto…Prime Minister Clark has held her post for 9 years and is about to get a fourth term and you claim she know s nothing about business. what planet are you from and what do you know about business?

  22. vto 22
    20 October 2008 at 10:21 am

    randal, planet earth and plenty. been our sole means of income for many years. et toi?

  23. randal 23
    20 October 2008 at 10:24 am

    vto you are just here to inject poisonous interjections with no relevance to anything except the nastiness in your soul and I f this were my site you would be kicked off immediately.

  24. vto 24
    20 October 2008 at 10:28 am

    oh good one randal. not sure where you see nastiness. just replying in kind to the inanities and pure crappola that gets posted here about Key and anyone opposed to labour. what’s the matter, can’t handle your own medicine?

    point me to my so-called poison and nastiness above. or keep quiet.

  25. randal 25
    20 October 2008 at 10:41 am

    vto its all nasty. you dont have a decent bone in your body. you are a typical tory who wants to introduce legislation to make people struggle so you can enjoy watching them. take ahike creep.

  26. vto 26
    20 October 2008 at 10:43 am

    what a der brain

  27. Ianmac 27
    20 October 2008 at 10:43 am

    The reason that John Key has been so high in the preferred PM poll, in my opinion is that he does not appear to get exposed to the population nor relate to them outside the set pieces. If you do not know a person very well it is easy to make assumptions about them. Smiles. Polite. But research shows that when you get to know someone better the warts begin to show. Then you may adjust your opinion. Helen has been exposed for a long time warts and all. (John avoided Varsity students in Dunedin.)

  28. randal 28
    20 October 2008 at 10:47 am

    never engage with idiots. they drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.

  30. travellerev 30
    20 October 2008 at 10:49 am

    Greg and vto,

    John Key has no real world business (i.e. long term planning, solid economic principles, growth management, healthy financial and lending practices) skills what so ever.

    His skills range from short term risk taking to predatory investment banking with financial products his team came up with and of course the used cars salesman skills needed in order to sell his crap to unsuspecting mugs.

    I.e. promoting, lending huge amounts of money to vulnerable segments of the population and building a huge speculative bubble on top of that with what Warren Buffet in 2002 already called “weapons of mass destruction” also known as bonds and derivatives in what the selfsame Buffet describes as a financial game of musical chairs. When the bubble bursts the suckers left holding them loose all their money.

    Who are the suckers? Your average mum and pop investors here in NZ who lost all their savings and nest eggs when their investment companies could not meet their obligations any more due to the credit crunch, the result of the real world economic collapse of the American economy and the resulting collapse of the derivatives market.

    The Cullen fund and a myriad of pension funds around the world and the investment banks themselves of course. that is; the poor saps working for these banks left holding the bag as their CEO’s ride into the sunset with billions in bonuses.

    My father in law, an 82 year old Methodist minister who scrimped and saved his whole live and who was taught that through living frugally and save carefully he would have enough to see him and his wife through their golden years and who saw his shares plummet last year and whom this week had to come to terms that the house four years ago valued as over half a million had lost it’s value overnight because people cannot afford a second home in a coastal area any more comes to mind. He now has to rely on us being able to give him luxuries such as cheese butter and eggs because their pension diminishes daily in value through inflation and the rising cost of living. You know, the little people.

    At this moment only 1% of the Us population holds 70% of the real world wealth in their grubby greedy claws and if it’s up to John Key you, the poor saps in New Zealand will be in the same position.

    And were did the $ 700 billion (more like 5 trillion already in the US alone) propup slush fund go to? Paulson’s buddies and who is going to pay for it? The US population for generations to come.

    And let’s not forget the $ 150 billion dollars Helen Clark was forced to cough up to keep the banks from sinking. That is $ 37,500,- for every man, women and child in New Zealand down the fractal banking drain instead of in job schemes training schemes, farmers aid (You know, again real world people who are going to feel the pain in the real world when America is no more) etc.

    Thanks very much John Key et al.

    Business acumen, my ass.

  31. vto 31
    20 October 2008 at 10:57 am

    travellerev, you make some points. Key sure has probably little ‘normal’ business experience – he was effectively an employee the whole time as I understand.

    Anyways, how’s this for a take on the wholly unwholesome banking world underwrite: the world banking owners have engineered a meltdown of such proportions that it has required govts to get the taxpayers to underwite the banks. Great if you own banks. What a deal – get the taxpayer to underwrite your business. Wish I could do the same.

    Well it has the makings of a story I thought…

    And anyway, the meltdown is too big for govts to control.

  32. infused 32
    20 October 2008 at 10:59 am

    God Randal, shut your hole. You sound like a moron.

  33. infused 33
    20 October 2008 at 11:02 am

    travellerev: cry me a river

  34. randal 34
    20 October 2008 at 11:02 am

    that was awhole heap of meaningless crap designed to fill in the space so that readers wont go back to the posts that actually say something i.e. spam. the only busienss you in is collecting your 30 peices of silver to spend your time writing this nonsense. ban him lprent. for gormless trolling.

  35. randal 35
    20 October 2008 at 11:07 am

    infused…take a hike…not only do you sound like a moron but you are a moron. there is no doubt about it.

  36. travellerev 36
    20 October 2008 at 11:32 am

    vto,

    If you want to go the “conspiracy” path perhaps you should watch the Money Masters about the history of our fractal banking system.

    John Key was the managing director of debt for Merrill Lynch in 1999. he was the global head of Forex for Merrill Lynch as well as managing director of the European department of Bonds and Derivatives. He was not just an employee. he was actively managing the department developing the debt instruments now destroying the financial system. he (according to the NZH “unauthorised” biography) and he was the guy (according to both himself and his boss) directly responsible in initiating the interbanking trade of these these vile, toxic products, thus spreading the poison through the entire system.

    Remember these are his own words and the positions come from his own bloody website. He must have thought we were all mugs when he put it there.

    He was not just a little employee mate, but the Smiling Assassin at work in one of the most powerful banking positions to be in, in any investment bank; the global head of forex and the boss of the very speculative crap that has all of us running for the hills.

    Yes, the meltdown is to big, inevitable and it’s architects should be in jail.
    John Key go to jail, don’t pass start and do not collect 200 dollars, you have ripped of enough dollars already.

    And trolls out there, I really like Randal. He’s got more brains than you put together. Even though he hates it when I talk 911 truth. LOL.

  37. Bill 37
    20 October 2008 at 11:32 am

    Why save it? Instead of lauding those who want to practice crisis management, why not laud those with vision and intelligence enough to attempt a move beyond Capitalism? (Any takers?)

    If the whole she-bang is salvaged, there will be pain in many different ways for many people in the interim. And more importantly, a continuation of the situation where billions of lives are severely blighted and fore shortened because of the systemic dynamics of Capitalism; a continuation of the situation where this world is viewed merely as a ‘thing’ to be used and abused to justify our ideas and ambitions…our oh so important vanity.

    If it is let fall there will probably be more pain for the many like us in the short term as compared with saving it (perhaps even death), but the overwhelming majority of humanity will finally, possibly, be free from the murderous market tyranny that has imposed enormous suffering for generations; a tyranny that we support in the name of defending our life styles as though they were a right rather than a product of a particularly vile form of economic oppression.

    A bit of humility might show us that an economic collapse is not the end of the world and isn’t really very important at all in the larger scheme of things and might actually be a good thing when seen in larger contexts.

    Just making an obvious statement. Not holding my breath here peeps in terms of expectation of intelligent responses.

  38. travellerev 38
    20 October 2008 at 11:34 am

    Infused,

    You sad angry man, get fucked.

  39. randal 39
    20 October 2008 at 11:39 am

    what a lot of vapid horseshit spam. how can you write so much that means so little. are you sure you are not buying this stuff from some right wing thinktank with a gurantee designed to baffle and confuse people?

  40. higherstandard 40
    20 October 2008 at 11:40 am

    Eve

    Helen Clark has not coughed up $150 billion dollars.

  41. randal 41
    20 October 2008 at 11:42 am

    travellerev…my sentiments too. lol.

  42. randal 42
    20 October 2008 at 11:44 am

    what does that mean HS…explain yourself.

  43. higherstandard 43
    20 October 2008 at 11:51 am

    Randal I’m not answering any more of your questions until you tell me if you’re voting for Winston.

  44. rave 44
    20 October 2008 at 11:53 am

    nuff about Key and Co. Their bipartisan electioneering is stopping Labour from moving quickly to deficit spending to counter the crisis.
    Clark’s eye may be on the ball but what game is she playing?

    Key want’s us to cover the losses and risks of finance capital out of the public purse with no support for the majority of taxpayers who are workers.

    Clark should be looking to Brown who as a clapped out Blairite has rediscovered some rudimentary Keynesian spending to counter the crisis. He has also bought into the banks so the workers get some rewards for the risk instead of the private shareholders.

    Key wants the Reserve Bank to guarantee the wholesale debt of NZ banks. Why?
    So they can go to money markets with the same guarantees as other banks and not miss out on funds.

    But the the big four banks are wholly owned by Aussie shareholders who have ripped billions of profits out of NZ over the years. Since the parent banks have already got their wholesale debt insured they can onloan capital to their NZ subsidiaries.

    So instead of underwriting the profits of these rippoff private owners to the tune of $300 billion, the Reserve Bank should take shares in the 4 banks, rather than securities, like Brown has done with British banks. Like Brown is doing, government will then be in the position to regulate and protect the public investment.

    So if Clark really has her eye on the ball then she should also tell us what the game is.

    I would say its a game of public risk equals public ownership.

    (1) nationalise shareholdings in the commercial banks in lieu of securities,
    (2) deficit spending to immediately advance work on infrastructure, job training, housebuilding to pump up incomes and demand.

  45. vto 45
    20 October 2008 at 11:54 am

    travellerev and others, I do not see solely one group to blame for this. Imo it is a result of a relatively regular burst of over-exuberance by people all over. It is part of human nature to speculate.

    Other groups responsible include, among others, people making the sub-prime loans, people accepting the sub-prime loans, people investing in finance companies without evaluation fo the risk, people speculating on rising asset prices whatever the asset, people selling bundled up debt, people buying bundled up debt, people living off their credit card, govts ignoring the overdue regulation of various financial areas, and michael cullen of course ha ha.

  46. randal 46
    20 October 2008 at 12:00 pm

    just finished listneing to a sound bite from Keys saying Prime Minister Helen Clark does not know how to run the economy. What planet is he from. New Zealand has just had nine years of unprecedented prosperity brough to an end by the banking crisis devised by John Keys. Kiwis do not need international criminals hanging out in New Zealand until the heat goes off.

  47. Daveski 47
    20 October 2008 at 12:30 pm

    Randal has got the party line down pat – the positive growth in the economy over the last 9 years was solely due to the wisdom of Labour who conversely are absolved of all blame for the economic problems we know face.

    Assuming Key is from another planter, randal must be visiting us from another universe.

    While we’re at it, let’s say National proposed that they’d come up with a December mini-budget with their response to the crisis. You would rightly (or should that be leftly??) laugh them out of the poles for their secret agenda – why don’t they tell the public what they are up to etc etc.

    Finally, let’s not forget it was Labour who proposed the top half of the OECD rankings hence they’ve failed their own metrics after randal praises them for 9 years of unprecedented economic growth.

  48. travellerev 48
    20 October 2008 at 12:53 pm

    HS,

    The government has effectively put up $ 150 billion dollars aside for at least two years in order to do something the banks are unable to do, thanks to the fractal banking system.
    That means that even if we need that money for other things like helping farmers who run into trouble because the American and hence market collapses or for job creation etc. we will not be able to access that money.

    We are propping up an international banking system that is failing. We, through the government are guaranteeing our own deposits. If we are able to guarantee our own deposits than why are we borrowing from foreign banks. Banks that are unable to pay out our deposits if we should need them? If the government is now forced to potentially take over the banking function than why don’t we chuck the scheisters out all together and print our own money based on a proper valuation of our GDP?

    If I told people to give me their money and that I would it invest it in sensible projects for a modes return and it turns out that instead of their money I would have spend 10 times more in fictitious money betting on the fact that none of my “Customers” all of their money at the same time and my customers did want all their money ate the same time, I would be thrown in jail for fraud and deception.

    Why are “Banks” allowed to do this and why does our Government feel pressured to prop up these fraudsters with a $150 billion of taxpayers money when they feel in providing the service they promised because they have been naughty with our money?

    Cullen has over the last year shown that he has precious little insight into the realities of the international financial crisis even though his response to it is the correct one IMO: To put his people before the big international boys.

    So yes, HS even if you believe that we’ll be right in two years that is two years of stagnation in our economy because of a big hole of $ 150 billion in our budget and if like me you have come to the conclusion that monetary system is for the dogs and we are heading in at least ten to twenty years of depression than that money is gone for good and if they have to use it to pay out deposits it is we the people who will be paying and not the big banks. Capiche?

    And the next time why don’t you try to support a bold statement like the above with some arguments eh?

  49. randal 49
    20 October 2008 at 12:53 pm

    the economic problems we face are a result of semi criminal operations in the international banking system. writing contracts and constructing debt instruments that are impossible to understand and holding nothing but blue sky. New Zealand is well placed to benefit from any upturn that will be a result of aggregate world food demand and not from political interference form the national party who would rather make money off dodgy “paper” than contributing to the growth of the real economy.

  50. Ianmac 50
    20 October 2008 at 1:16 pm

    Travellerev: I liked your 10:49 post. I can nearly understand that. Copied it to my file. What puzzles me is the lack of currency for this. If the populace knew the warts and all of John Key’s experience would he still be floating high on the preferred PM? A crooked operator in the Financial Investor firm, (Blue Chip wasn’t that one of them?) was exposed after ripping off NZ savings of NZers and was widely reviled for his dishonesty. What is the difference?

  51. Evidence-Based Practice 51
    20 October 2008 at 1:23 pm

    John Key is happy to refer to himself as a smiling assassin and when asked about firing large numbers of people and going on currency raids in his last job says he was just following orders. Who will he be following orders from if he gets elected PM?

  52. travellerev 52
    20 October 2008 at 1:34 pm

    Actually Daveski,

    I only arrived here three years ago and have no affinity with any of the parties as such but it is a given that from all the Anglo Saxon countries only New Zealand had not run up a massive debt.

    Labours policies were conservative and based on sound economics rather than the half cocked neo liberal Milton Friedman (Don Brash’s good friend) Greed is good tax cuts for the rich and fuck the rest politics of Bush and his cabal and Thatcher and Blair and let’s not forget John Howard’s neoliberal privatisations.

    So I’d have to agree with Randal that yes, the fact is that labour has unlike their neo liberal counterparts actually kept this country afloat with real production even though some production has left NZ.

    Where as real production in the US has all but ceased. (12% of jobs in real world production is not really supporting a country’s economy is it?)

  53. travellerev 53
    20 October 2008 at 1:51 pm

    Ianmac,

    If the general populace really knew what JK has been up to. I think they would kick him out of the country and have him live out his days in his rich prick Hawaiian condo.
    I really do.
    It is only now that the financial crisis is beginning to show signs here in NZ though that people actually want to know.

    The big problem is that for most kiwi’s the world is still a huge place and they don’t realise how global the financial system is and how the actions of a small group of Wall street bankers can affect out economy here.

  54. higherstandard 54
    20 October 2008 at 1:57 pm

    Eve

    NZ and Australian banks are not in the same trouble as many around the governments in Australia and NZ saying they will underwrite deposits (and hopefully interbank loans) is not the same as te government putting aside or coughing up $150 billion as you put it.

    Mostly it is a confidence building exercise and there is no $150 billion hole in our budget.

    Randal is however quite correct in saying that New Zealand is well placed to benefit from any upturn that will be a result of aggregate world food demand as it almost always has been.

    While I know you are hugely anti Key I would have thought that the best thing National and Labour could do at the moment would be to get the best economic minds in the country together to come up with a plan for economic stability in the first instance and thereafter shortening and minimising the budget deficits, unfortunatelythese economic issues tend occur leading into elections probably because we have a very short electoral cycle.

    NZ’s high indebtedness can be directly related to a pervasive love of property as an investment at the expensive of virtually everything else, a bizarre belief that prices always go up and never come down and no political parties having the will to introduce a capital gains tax on property.

  55. randal 55
    20 October 2008 at 2:02 pm

    Key likes to pretend that he is the only person in new zealand if not the whole world who has any expetise in financial . Hello…the RBNZ just made a big profit. we were doing quite well before he came along and we will do even better if he just quitely shuffled off somewhere without trying to throw spanners in the works all the time so he he can claim to be the only one able to fix it.

  56. Pascal's bookie 56
    20 October 2008 at 2:12 pm

    I would have thought that the best thing National and Labour could do at the moment would be to get the best economic minds in the country together to come up with a plan for economic stability in the first instance and thereafter shortening and minimising the budget deficits, unfortunatelythese economic issues tend occur leading into elections probably because we have a very short electoral cycle.

    Sounds easy, till you realise that opinions differ on who has the best economic minds, and those minds differ on what the plan should be. That’s why we have elections.

  57. Ianmac 57
    20 October 2008 at 2:20 pm

    Higherstandard said:”the best thing National and Labour could do at the moment would be to get the best economic minds in the country together to come up with a plan for economic stability in the first instance and thereafter shortening and minimising the budget deficits,”
    Sounds Ok until you read the huge diversity of opinion from economists. I like what Bryan Easton and Gareth Morgan and Travellerev and Dave Brown, and Michael Cullen and heaps of others say, but their perspectives vary. The largest a Committee should be is 9 or 7. Any greater and you have factions. Indecision. I am confident that Michael and John can sort it from expert advice. Key seems to be on a tangent???

  58. higherstandard 58
    20 October 2008 at 2:24 pm

    PB

    The first part of the issue – putting confidence into the NZ banking system is not hard – whoever both Labour and National are of the same mind and will support each other. I’m sure Don Brash would be happy to offer advice and help out as well – he’s worked with National and Labour over many many years why shouldn’t treasury take use of his experience and knowledge and I’m sure there’s many others that could offer useful input if they took off the red and blue caps for a week or two.

    Key and Clark should rise above the cak drag Cullen and English off the campaign trail and lock them in a room with Treasury for a few days that would be far better use tax payers money than having them both alienating voters through to the election.

  59. randal 59
    20 October 2008 at 2:25 pm

    Keys tangent is try and grab a few spare million before he shuffles off back to where he came from.

  60. Ianmac 60
    20 October 2008 at 2:27 pm

    OOps! Pascals Bookie. We seem to have said the same things. Must be right! 🙂

  61. randal 61
    20 October 2008 at 2:54 pm

    oops…cullen wiped the floor with english on Kim Hills radio show yesterdayand now HS is crying off.
    vote labour HS and you wont be embarrassed by tory wannabees

  62. travellerev 62
    20 October 2008 at 3:09 pm

    HS,

    I’m hugely anti Key because he is a lying scum bag who made his money selling useless derivatives to unsuspecting mugs. If that is not a good reason to detest someone I don’t know what is.

    John Key visited his former bosses for a working breakfast in Merrill Lynch’s London headquarters in October 2007. The subprime had well and truly emerged. According to this interview John Key from February 2008 talked about the NZ economy, and while I have no problem with John Key meeting with is former palls I wonder why they met so formally and why in this formal meeting he needed to talk with them about NZ’s economy. In the same interview no mention is made of the fact that Merrill Lynch was over leveraged or in any kind of trouble.

    Yet, in this interview published in July 2008 and with a finance crisis hitting New Zealand John Key states that he was shocked by the extend of debt exposure by his former employer when he visited them in October.
    One page earlier he sates that the crisis would have been easy to predict.

    So you would think that he would raise hell upon his return knowing this could very well damage his proud little country. The country he came home too, to bring to greatness.

    Just imagine him doing the bipartisan super statesman thing. him getting in touch with Cullen saying, ‘Cullen mate, we’ve got a problem. I just came back from London and we are heading for financial turmoil like you wouldn’t believe.
    Let’s drop all this partisan shit and let’s get together because we have to start battening down the hatches and quite frankly this is bigger than both of us. After I left my bank and by the looks of it all major banks have gone of their rocker with speculation and they will implode.”

    He would have come off a major Cosmopolitan political leader while at the same time showing both Helen Clark and Cullen up for being country bumpkins.

    What a coup. It would have wiped out Labour in one foul swoop. Instead he keeps shtum, why?
    Instead of doing what he said he came here for; to help this country he does absolutely zero, ziltch, absolutely nothing until forced by events overtaking him force him to admit that the crisis is bad and even then he lies. He tells the NZHerald journalists that the subprime products were not developed until 2004-2005. A blatant lie. This is the wiki timeline.

    Instead he keeps talking about borrowing money for infrastructure, investing the Cullen fund into privately owned businesses, tax cuts (which turn out to be for the rich) and cutting and privatising the welfare system while introducing a fire at will the first three months in order to make the position of workers weaker.

    You see HS all of the above makes me really wonder about John Key’s patriotism and why he came back to this country. We know it is not because he has the best interest of the working majority at hart, we know he lies and we know from the above that if the banking world is on the verge of collapsing because of the crap they’ve paddling oh, the last twenty years he’s not going to try and mitigate the worst effects through pre-emptive actions. And we know he only starts to whine about bipartisan actions when Labour implements actions that protect the workers and the majority of the NZ population while John Key wants to give money to his banking mates and rich industrials.

    HS,

    These are some of the reasons I am vehemently anti John Key and if you don’t mind I’ll continue to be vehemently Anti Key for these reasons. You might like people lying to you while they try to get your vote so they can rob you country but I have a serious problem with that.

    As to the 150 billion:

    You are still under the mistaken assumption that a depression is avoidable. It is not. The worlds economy is going to tank. Period.
    America’s middle class has been robbed of it’s good well paying jobs, easy credit has tempted them into buying into the American dream of buying great big McMansions and taking on ever more debt and it is time to pay the piper. no more 7 trillion a year in consumer goods. If they want to survive they are going to have to go back to the land to grow their own (that is if the big corporate land owners will let them and they certainly will not be buying lots of food oversees any more. When America goes, China goes and America, the UK and Russia are already experiencing bank runs. When all this happens New Zealand’s economy will go south and that is that.

    What is happening is nothing short of daylight robbery and the moment the Government will actually have to start using those billions, It is not if but when.

    So if it’s all the same to you the last man I want to tinker with the NZ economy is the lying speculating predator John Key especially since the solutions he is coming up with are essentially the same ones that have made the top 1% of Americans super rich while the rest will live in abject poverty for oh , the next 10 -20 years.

  63. travellerev 63
    20 October 2008 at 3:19 pm

    HS,

    Hilarious. Don Brash will help out.

    The same Don Brash rubbing shoulders with the Neo Cons who brought us Afghanistan and Iraq (Another way in which their cabal bankrupted the country while growing revoltingly rich themselves from war profiteering). The same Don Brash that came up with the Federal Reserve act of 1989, The same Don Brash who thought the sun shone out of Milton “Greed is good” Friedman’s ass and was really buddy buddy with him.

    F*&kin hell mate. That brought tears to my eyes. LOLOLOLOL

  64. jo zinny 64
    20 October 2008 at 4:02 pm

    ev, I seem to recall it as Swaps and Derivatives. Not bonds and. It is quite important to distinguish this, since bonds are a thoroughly standard financial instrument. Albeit in regard to typically larger sums of money, than say your straightforward kiwi customer or individual is familier with. You make very good and human points in the views expressed and I shouldn’t want readers to dismiss these on a single error basis.

    More broadly I’d like to add for the benefit of folks not truly understanding whilst somewhat doubtfully accepting things in respect of political choices and/or persons associated — that what is not understood is generally taken to be important.

    Our world is already rather too well-resourced in those who would take advantage of this state of affairs. Most certainly in financial matters. [Clk my name about for the latest on Lehman Bros if you will]. An emerging truth, however, of events this year is that who you trust to both understand and implement corrective treatments is more important that simply letting the ‘system’ provide.
    I would respectfully suggest those who created the problem are, as Einstein said elsewhere, not likely to be the ones to fix it. Excepting for themselves!

  65. higherstandard 65
    20 October 2008 at 4:02 pm

    Eve

    Please wipe the spittle of the screen. Despite your dire predictions we are not about to have to go back to living in caves anytime soon.

    Your vitriol really does make you incoherent at times – “99% of Americans will be living in abject poverty for the next decade or two” – do you really believe this kind of piffle ?

    Don Brash is one of the best economic minds in NZ even most of the dunderheads on this blog will acknowledge that and his input would be most useful – your fanciful ideas that he and Key are part of some international conspiracy are as lunatic as Hitler’s claims of a plot by international Jewry.

  66. travellerev 66
    20 October 2008 at 4:33 pm

    Jo Zinny,

    I used the combination of bonds and derivatives because John Key ran the European department of Bonds and Derivatives.

    I am only beginning to understand the complexities and the huge number of variations in financial products on offer.

    So feel free to help me understand it better. I’ll link to your site very interesting.

    I agree with your assessment about those who created the crisis.

    HS.

    I don’t spit on my screen. I’m a calm and collected person even in the face of your extremely uncouth baiting techniques and I did not say that 99% will live in abject poverty. I said that 1% of the US population owns 70% percent of the Nations wealth if that doesn’t strike you as a tad inequal in light of the coming depression than that says more about you than about me.

    What will happen is that a percentage of the rest of America will live fairly comfortable serving their feudal masters in aiding them in the suppression of the starving masses. More than 400 FEMA camps and the <a href=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufxsUCKJ51MArmy training for crowd control inside the USA in clear contravention of Posse comitatus tells me so.

    And this is how these camps look. I guess the US government must know something you don’t eh.

    Don Brash is indeed a very smart man and he has indeed a brilliant financial mind but that doesn’t make him an honest man or an ungreedy man. Don Brash does not have our interests at hart HS. Never has and never will. His lies told me so. I really, really liked Nicky Hager’s book Hollow men.

  67. travellerev 67
    20 October 2008 at 4:39 pm

    Jo Zinny,

    Way to go. Lehman bros executives subpoenaed. Whadda ya think. Should we ask them to investigate John Key too. LOL.

    He was after all one of only four upon invitation only advisors in the Forex committee together with a representative of Lehman bros, Citigroup and UBSWahrburg.

    That’s the third prosecution there is one in Ohio and California all going after the perpetrators of the subprime crisis. Perhaps it’s time we tell the FBI where John Key now lives. LOL

  68. higherstandard 68
    20 October 2008 at 4:42 pm

    Eve don’t lie !

    Your comments were as follows

    “….that have made the top 1% of Americans super rich while the rest will live in abject poverty for oh , the next 10 -20 years.”

    and then

    “…I’m a calm and collected person even in the face of your extremely uncouth baiting techniques and I did not say that 99% will live in abject poverty. ”

    And then this drivel

    “What will happen is that a percentage of the rest of America will live fairly comfortable serving their feudal masters in aiding them in the suppression of the starving masses”

    I’m glad you acknowledge that DB is an intelligent man and let’s agree to disagree whether he has NZ’s interests at heart – I believe he does and always has you obviously don’t.

  69. jo zinny 69
    20 October 2008 at 4:43 pm

    HS, re Don Brash.. he would be the first to tell you I believe, that his tenure at the NZRB required the greatest semblance of autocratic control to effect the changes he made in regard to inflation control..

    at issue however, appears to be what has been termed “derivatives drag”. This involves the legitimacy of such instruments, their distribution and global uptake. AND, importantly, to what extent contracts made in regard to them are valid. In several or all lawful administrations. If invalid what ‘proper’ compensations ought apply. To wit: tis not simply for you or I or any other kiwi to determine such things. But all nations and commercial entities(these are the most abundant).

    So.. whilst Dr Brash may be of considerable value in these matters we should not expect too much of him. That said, I respect the sensibility you have shown in this suggestion. Add, too, his ‘apolitical’ dimension( quotes = reportedly he wants a national government ) though insofar as he can wear a non-partisan hat in an advisory capacity.. then all well and good..

    I say that ev is correct about his likely economic affils though I take exception to the ‘Greed is Good’ quip which belongs entirely to actor Michael Douglas in one of his banker-thriller movies 🙂

  70. randal 70
    20 October 2008 at 6:38 pm

    higher standard still atttacking the person and not addressing the question. and slandering eve. the point is John Keys has been associated with three dodgy episodes with the last one having a global impact. What is he doing here? Marking time till the heats off and he can go back to London eh.

  71. higherstandard 71
    20 October 2008 at 6:44 pm

    Randal you twit – perhaps you need to look up slander in the dictionary and have a cuddle with your blow up Winnie Peters doll.

  72. randal 72
    20 October 2008 at 6:51 pm

    lprent…please deal with this sexually obsessed deviant

  73. travellerev 73
    20 October 2008 at 6:59 pm

    Hi Zin (like that moniker)

    The “greed is good” thing refers to an interview with Milton Friedman in which he tells the interviewer that nothing good ever gets achieved unless greed is involved. Milton Friedman was one of Don Brash’s best friend according to Nicky Hager in Hollow Men.

    There is a new Gekko movie on the way I’ve heard. LOL.

    HS.

    America is going back to a feudal system. Super rich pricks and their families will hire assholes who like violence to suppress the serfs. 1% of the population owns 70% of all the real world wealth of that country. Don’t you think that sucks? Do you think that this 1% will let go of their wealth because “it’s the right thing to do”. Get real. I don’t lie HS. You just have trouble dealing with reality.

    Why don’t you check out those links I gave you earlier.

  74. lprent 74
    20 October 2008 at 7:04 pm

    Jez – give it a rest. Otherwise I’ll impose some civility.

    It is like fatuous insult central here.

  75. higherstandard 75
    20 October 2008 at 7:16 pm

    Randal

    Sexual deviant ? What are you on about you twerp ?

    Eve you have just lied repeatedly !

    Make up your mind first you say

    ” .that have made the top 1% of Americans super rich while the rest will live in abject poverty for oh , the next 10 -20 years.’

    and then

    ” I’m a calm and collected person even in the face of your extremely uncouth baiting techniques and I did not say that 99% will live in abject poverty. ‘

    and then

    “America is going back to a feudal system. Super rich pricks and their families will hire assholes who like violence to suppress the serfs. 1% of the population owns 70% of all the real world wealth of that country. Don’t you think that sucks? Do you think that this 1% will let go of their wealth because “it’s the right thing to do’. Get real. I don’t lie HS. You just have trouble dealing with reality.”

  76. jo zinny 76
    20 October 2008 at 7:40 pm

    lprent, I’ve been looking for Jez – is there one?

    EV, Now not wishing to unnecessarily add to this thread and thusly (or thereby) become embroiled in this “fatuous” stuff I’d simply say how we’d all be better off talking about ‘good’ and not ‘nothing good’. That said who am I to declare the above-linked Milton Friedman incorrect in a single instance or expression of this topic. Problematic is of course systemic greed.. where his followers, as it were, frame greed is good in doctrinaire terms. Okay, that might suggest that Michael Douglas’s screenwriter lifted the words for a more dramatic expression of them.. after the event (of first expression) Hey, this is getting to look hokey.. I’m being too polite. If it’s a problem ev, I’ll happily resile 😉

  77. lprent 77
    20 October 2008 at 7:47 pm

    Try here

    I was considering inserting the extra ‘r’ in fatuous, but considered it would be below the belt…

  78. randal 78
    20 October 2008 at 7:58 pm

    stick to the point HS. what is the national party policy on selling kiwibank and ACC?

  79. jo zinny 79
    20 October 2008 at 8:09 pm

    Hi All,

    Thought you’d like to know about the aussie SBS Insight TV team’s show Greed’s Role in the Global Financial Crisis. Plays 7.30pm tomorrow night (21st).

    Could be ‘template’ for kiwi.. Go see, say whaddya think..?

  80. travellerev 80
    21 October 2008 at 7:43 am

    No worries Zin,

    I like your writing,

    By the way I looked up derivatives and found that yes, swaps are one form of derivative. And so are futures, forwards, options.

    But derivatives can be based on the more secure bonds.

    Here are some more nuggets about John Key.

    In one interview John Key was introduced as the managing director of debt in 1999 for Merill Lynch. Debt as in debt or credit derivatives. These derivatives derived their value from the value of outstanding loans and currency speculation. Mortgages, Corporate debts and speculation as to whether the value of currencies would go up or down in the future. According to his own website he was both the Global head of forex and European head for Bonds and Derivatives. According to the first link he was also involved in the internet banking system which revolutionised the interbanking trade enabling this speculative trade to spread virally around the globe. In fact according to John Key himself and his boss at Merrill Lynch it was John Key who initialised the interbanking trade in these products.

    I agree the greed is systemic and that is what is causing a lot of problems and Douglas’s character Gekko’s line is the one line getting that sentiment expressed in the movie. The second installment is about the subprime crisis and the consequences. It is my sincere hope that Gekko goes to jail a second time and that this time the real world follows suit.

    Here is a nice little documentary about the carry trade and why Iceland is going bankrupt.

  81. jo zinny 81
    21 October 2008 at 6:35 pm

    ev, got that tks.

    may interest you to know how accounting – like for balance sheets and attached docs – the term debt/derivatives is fairly commonplace today. An inquiring mind, for example, might look at this figure for a major kiwi-based producer/seller and wonder some in light of recent global events and awareness of a certain ratio that, like a thermometer, attests the health of a body corporate. Yes, this was the same body a young fellow was heard to say about a year ago how much money he might make in his hedge fund. At that time in the simple device of pumping prices…

    Your first link reveals a fellow clearly set on growth in financial terms rather more than the words of its borrowed scientific lexicon would suggest – ie ‘volumes’, which in science is a property related to states of matter and thus forms of m easure. Though taken in either sense it would certainly implicate someone inclined to ballsup big if that is how our world has come to realise things some 9 years later.

    When it comes to the ‘interbanking’ stuff – in London wasn’t it? – there appears to be reason to know more. As one of my contribs said recently those were times primed for stripping capital assets. To put it politely. Less polite might look something like private entities enriching themselves from former bank marketshare and/or nicking the IP in guys and gals diaries and minds. Banks ARE strong on lending and borrowers yet when trust attaches to income-bearing tradeables in place of sound all-customer relationships, things change. To grab hold of change as between retail banks and customers and non-retail banks and investors is not rocket science. It’s the beginning of inequalities, big bonuses, stock options—the loyalty schtick! And insiders. And, adding the expansive and fast online component, the great opaquer known as impersonal.

    To all of which a very simple solution is possible. Given a firm administration. For which we shall wait and see..

    Next I’ve gotten some more Skinny to post asap..

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