- Date published:
9:37 pm, July 1st, 2016 - 13 comments
Categories: australian politics, International - Tags: australia, Australian Labor Party, Bill Shorten
It’s Election Day across the ditch. Conservative Malcolm Turnbull is seeking a mandate to continue his leadership, while Labor’s Bill Shorten wants to return the left to power and put a line under the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd years. The polls are showing margins thinner than a zig zag skin.
Both parties agree that the upper house, the Senate, is problematic. Neither are looking to get an outright majority there and could end up stymied by the plethora of single issue or wannabe populist MP’s. The lower house could also be hung, depending on how the Greens and others do. Voting in Oz is weirdly complex, but don’t worry, it’s all explained in detail here:
So the senate could be the key. Even if Turnbull’s Liberal led coalition scrapes home, as expected, he may be a lame duck anyway if he can’t take the senate. Same for Labor, of course. Labor need 19 lower house seats to come their way. I suspect they might fall tantalisingly close. But if they did get a majority in the lower house, they may actually be in a better position to bargain with the minor parties in the senate.
Bill Shorten, by all accounts, is a good guy. But as the following clip shows, he’s not entirely memorable.
The Greens may struggle. The Liberals have told their voters to put the Greens last on the ballot, hoping to remove them as a potential ally for Labor. But personally, if the Liberals win, I’d like them to have to do deals with the Brick With Eyes to get across the line. If Glenn Lazarus is elected, he will probably halt the return of Pauline Hanson. And that would be nice.
First results will be in late tonight. I’ll update as they come in. But, in the meantime, here’s the Guardian’s coverage and the ABC’s page can be found here.
Winston has already called it:
Did Key really endorse Turnbull? That’s pretty disgusting, shenanigans like that will do nothing for NZ-AU relations
NZ-AU relations are pretty cosy after The Liberal party openly endorsed and encouraged kiwis publicly in Australia to VOTE for John Key at the 2014 NZ election something that should never happen as its interfering in another countries election campaign and goes against covention not too interfere no matter how excited you get about the possible re election of the great Messiah himself in another countries affairs.
Key of course will tell anybody who listens that a no vote for Turnbull would be a disaster and that he is more than qualified being a rich money man like himself and give him some points on how to get away with some old John Key tricks that have worked so well in New Zeelund.
could sure do with a win somewhere in the world.
Spain was particularly depressing this week.
Agreed-but Podemos have done amazingly well.
Rajoy still hasn’t been able to form a government yet, though he probably will.
Brexit didn’t help at the crucial time. (Sorry Eexit as I’m calling it now)
It’s hard to get enthusiastic for a rather bigoted country that took away voting rights for tax paying Kiwis, or in fact most civilised rights for them that any person living, working and contributing to that society deserve, all to gain votes based on the lie that Kiwis were dole bludging lay abouts and yet go on about the “ANZAC spirit” of both nations.
Or a country whose self absorbed politicians launch regular coups that oust elected PM’s more than your average so called banana republics do.
Or a country whose politicians thrive off scaring the voters each election with anti immigrant anything campaigns to gain votes, feeding back into my first point.
Sorry but Aussie has a long way to go to rectify the damage it’s done in it’s arrogant never ending quest to shit on NZ.
I predict yet another yet another win for the right. The polls are close but when it comes to actually voting people won’t tick the labour box.
Both of them are utter bumholes.
If the polls are right (a big IF), then the Coalition should juuuuusst manage to scrape home in the lower house.
4 of the last 5 polls have put the Coalition slightly ahead (the 5th had a 50/50 tie). That reflects a subtle wee swing to the Right over the last 2 weeks.
12 polls since mid-June
Two Party Preferred Average
(7 out of 12 place Coalition ahead / 2 out of 12 put Labour in the lead / other 3 tie)
7 polls immediately before that (1/2 June)
(3 out of 7 put ALP ahead / other 4 = 50/50 tie / None with Coalition in front)
So, just this slight but potentially crucial movement over the last 14 days of the campaign.
On top of that, polling of the Key Marginals suggests Labour probably won’t pick up enough to win. (Doesn’t help that a disproportionate number of Marginals are in NSW where the Coalition at both the Federal and State level remain unusually popular).
Having said that … still knife-edge stuff … and the reputation of polls has taken a slight battering over recent years in the Anglo world … so ….
Dang ! Forgot the Aussie spelling …
Labor not Labour.
I think, unfortunately, that I heard the marginal seats are favouring Turnbull’s coalition, which could swing it.
Thats just talking up their (libs)chances to influence late deciders- surprisingly some people like to think they voted for the winner -no other reason matters.
Neither is Turnbull, judging by the salient question prefacing Stuff’s live coverage: “Will incumbent Malcolm Turner be returned as prime minister?”.