It’s Election Day across the ditch. Conservative Malcolm Turnbull is seeking a mandate to continue his leadership, while Labor’s Bill Shorten wants to return the left to power and put a line under the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd years. The polls are showing margins thinner than a zig zag skin.
Both parties agree that the upper house, the Senate, is problematic. Neither are looking to get an outright majority there and could end up stymied by the plethora of single issue or wannabe populist MP’s. The lower house could also be hung, depending on how the Greens and others do. Voting in Oz is weirdly complex, but don’t worry, it’s all explained in detail here:
So the senate could be the key. Even if Turnbull’s Liberal led coalition scrapes home, as expected, he may be a lame duck anyway if he can’t take the senate. Same for Labor, of course. Labor need 19 lower house seats to come their way. I suspect they might fall tantalisingly close. But if they did get a majority in the lower house, they may actually be in a better position to bargain with the minor parties in the senate.
Bill Shorten, by all accounts, is a good guy. But as the following clip shows, he’s not entirely memorable.
The Greens may struggle. The Liberals have told their voters to put the Greens last on the ballot, hoping to remove them as a potential ally for Labor. But personally, if the Liberals win, I’d like them to have to do deals with the Brick With Eyes to get across the line. If Glenn Lazarus is elected, he will probably halt the return of Pauline Hanson. And that would be nice.