Colmar Brunton Feb 2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:24 pm, February 18th, 2019 - 84 comments
Categories: Politics, polls - Tags: ,

Another poll, another solid result for the Labour led Government.

The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll suggests a 2 party left government with a 6-8 seat majority.

LAB 45% (+2), GRN 6% (+1), NZF 3% (-1)

NAT 42% (-4), MAO 1%, ACT 1%, TOP 1% 

However, history says NZ First will cross the 5% threshold, so Labour with the choice of either of the current coalition partners to govern looks possible. Of course, I’d expect Labour to carry the coalition on in that event, so No Change looks to be the winner.

The loser?

Well, I suppose if one were charitable, at least Simon Bridges can say Judith Collins isn’t actually ahead in this poll. At 6% each, even combined they can’t dent Jacinda Ardern’s 44% rating.

Keep those attack ads coming, Tories.

They’re really going to make the difference.

 

84 comments on “Colmar Brunton Feb 2019 ”

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  1. Muttonbird 1
    18 February 2019 at 8:29 pm

    Yeah, another great result for New Zealand and this seems to confirm Kiwis really, really hate the attack style politics which the National Party thinks they are onto a winner with.

    They also hate sordid, extramarital and acrimonious affairs between caucus members. They hate workplace bullying, and they hate corruption, electoral and otherwise. All of which the Nats have shown in spades since they got turfed out.

    Under Bridges, they look like an angry, drunk person shouting at people at the end of a messy night. The trouble for them is the alternatives will be worse.

    Hate to be them.

    • Enough is Enough 1.1
      19 February 2019 at 1:00 pm

      Kiwis really, really hate the attack style politics which the National Party thinks they are onto a winner with.

      On the basis of this poll 41% wouldn’t back up your assertion

      • Muttonbird 1.1.1
        19 February 2019 at 1:04 pm

        41% and dropping!

        • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.1
          19 February 2019 at 2:05 pm

          Yeah it is. The concern is Labour seems to be doing what National did to its coalition partners and cannibalising them.

          Until I see National in the low 30s and the Greens consistently in double figures I will remain on edge and a little panicked.

  2. ken 2
    18 February 2019 at 8:47 pm

    Hopefully, all the National Party MPs will continue to be 110% behind their leader.

    • Tamati Tautuhi 2.1
      18 February 2019 at 8:54 pm

      Simon needs to go through another couple of Election’s to build his profile & strength of character for the PM’s job, he is a mere babe in the woods at present and is floundering a bit.

  3. Tamati Tautuhi 3
    18 February 2019 at 8:51 pm

    I predict NZF will get 9-10% in the 2020 Election as some voters from National will want to take out some Insurance against a Labour/Green Coalition or an outright Labour Government which the polls are indicating at present.

    Many are predicting the demise of NZF at the next 2020 Election and many believe that NZF will fold when Winston retires.

  4. Stuart Munro 4
    18 February 2019 at 8:52 pm

    Long may National vacillate with Judith and Simon level pegging on 6% 😀

    • Tamati Tautuhi 4.1
      18 February 2019 at 8:56 pm

      Really the only 2 alternatives at present.

      • Stuart Munro 4.1.1
        18 February 2019 at 9:00 pm

        Veutoviper found one of the new ladies who has plenty of smarts – but she’d have a forest of deadwood to clearfell even to reach the shadow cabinet.

        • veutoviper 4.1.1.1
          19 February 2019 at 2:36 pm

          I am digging deep in my memory to try and recollect who I might have been referring to … LOL.

          Perhaps Nicola Willis? – https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/members-of-parliament/willis-nicola/

          She has plenty of smarts – intelligence, experience working in the parliamentary environment before becoming a MP etc – but personally I certainly don’t support her politic views or quite bluntly, her over-confidence and ambition at times.

          I do expect to see her rise rapidly through the ranks. However, there are several other new National women also of similar type, eg Erica Stanford, who is an electorate MP who came into Parliament in that capacity in Sept 2017, as opposed to a list one like Willis who came some months later in April 2018 on the departure of Stephen Joyce. I anticipate some competition to Willis from such corners, and probably from some of the younger males who have come in before her etc.

          I certainly don’t see Willis or any of these others seeking top positions until well after the 2020 election.

          PS – Sarah Dowie made a mercurial rise in list position when Bridges became leader of National in Feb 2018. She and Ross rose 19 places each at that time, the highest rise of anyone in that round. I doubt we will see her making any moves towards higher placings in the immediate future, if ever.

          • Stuart Munro 4.1.1.1.1
            19 February 2019 at 3:53 pm

            I expect they’ll make an appearance a little sooner than ordinarily, if National continues to plummet, but certainly not before a solid electoral humiliation.

            Yes, I think it might’ve been Willis. Characteristic of National that no-one will be going anywhere on merit until every other possibility, and several impossibilities, have been exhausted.

      • Muttonbird 4.1.2
        18 February 2019 at 9:03 pm

        Pullya Benefit is making a run up the rail with a stomach stapling followed by a few photoshoots.

        Her message to the overweight women of New Zealand; you too can look like me if you can afford surgery.

  5. mary_a 5
    18 February 2019 at 9:05 pm

    Another rogue poll Simon, do you think?

    No doubt side kick Bennett will make some ridiculous statement to the effect Natz is doing so well, it can afford to ignore the recent polls, or something along those lines!

    Well done Labour and the Greens. Keep up the good work and don’t become complacent.

    Looking forward to Parliament tomorrow 🙂

  6. Shadrach 6
    18 February 2019 at 9:08 pm

    The CM poll taken between 14-19 February 2009 (roughly the same time in the electoral cycle) gave the following results:

    National 57%
    Labour 31%
    Greens 7%
    Act 2%
    Maori 2%
    NZF 1%

    For preferred PM, John Key was on 51%, Phil Goff on 6%.

    National’s current polling at 42% is meteoric compared with Labour’s polling at a similar stage, which is even the more remarkable given the fact that Bridges personal popularity seems to be about the same as was Goff’s. The difference is clearly Jacinda Ardern, who despite some serious slip ups seems to have the same Teflon coating that Key and Clark possessed. Good on her.

    • Muttonbird 6.1
      18 February 2019 at 9:18 pm

      May 2010 was the nearest point in the electoral cycle for Colmar Brunton:

      National 49.0% (-5.0%)
      Labour 33.0% (nc)
      Green 7.0% (+2.3%)
      ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
      Maori 3.6% (+1.5%)
      United Future 0.5% (+0.3%)
      Progressive 0.5% (+0.3%)
      NZ First 1.3% (-0.4%)

      Labour/Greens at 51% now. Nats/ACT at 51% then.

      Identical.

      • Shadrach 6.1.1
        18 February 2019 at 11:13 pm

        My apologies, got the dates wrong. The point stands however. Interesting that NZF was so low at that point too.

      • alwyn 6.1.2
        19 February 2019 at 12:53 pm

        I realise why you chose the May Poll.
        However the better comparison, based on the time since the previous election, is in fact the Colmar Brunton poll of 10-14 April. That had National on 54, Labour on 33 and Greens on 5.
        The gap is based on the fact that the 2008 election was on 8 November and the 2017 election was on 23 September. That is about 6 weeks so I chose the first 1NCB poll taken after late March 2010.
        Your choice of 30 May is far to late. It is also heavily influenced by being shortly after the Budget.

        • Muttonbird 6.1.2.1
          19 February 2019 at 1:03 pm

          Nope. I chose that one because it was the only one I could find.

          What happened in the 2010 budget to tank National’s support so much? I wonder if it was because they lied and raised GST to 15%.

    • Peter 6.2
      18 February 2019 at 10:09 pm

      Yeah, with such meteoric strong polling by National, Labour and Co. should chuck in the towel now for the next election.

      • Shadrach 6.2.1
        18 February 2019 at 11:15 pm

        That wasn’t my point at all. When National came in in 2008, they did so with a very strong electoral mandate. Labour don’t have anywhere near that mandate, but they do have parliamentary support parties. But Nationals support after 9 years in government is still very high.

        • Psycho Milt 6.2.1.1
          19 February 2019 at 7:10 am

          National’s scoring highly because ACT’s decrepitude makes it the only option on the right. The left has two options, Labour and the Greens. That makes the only useful comparison the National/ACT support level vs the Labour/Greens support level, which is currently 43 vs 51. That’s a sizable mandate if you ask me.

          • Shadrach 6.2.1.1.1
            19 February 2019 at 9:18 am

            ACT was only scoring 2% in 2010. People vote for the party they want to be in Government. In the last election labour’s vote was lower than National’s support is now. It’s just an observation.

  7. Ankerrawshark 7
    18 February 2019 at 9:18 pm

    Yep good on jacinda, we owe her a lot. But rather than Teflon I think people gets she’s genuine and she cares and she’s very smart. High eq.

    • patricia bremner 7.1
      18 February 2019 at 10:32 pm

      1000% She is gold.

    • Shadrach 7.2
      18 February 2019 at 11:16 pm

      Nah, it’s Teflon. But good on her.

      • patricia bremner 7.2.1
        18 February 2019 at 11:28 pm

        shadrach there is nothing plastic about Jacinda.

        • Shadrach 7.2.1.1
          19 February 2019 at 9:16 am

          Oh no. She’s broken promises, lost control of some of her senior cabinet ministers and occasionally goes AWOL, but there’s nothing plastic about her. No siree.

      • Robert Guyton 7.2.2
        19 February 2019 at 7:41 am

        “But good on her”
        You’ve unconsciously understood what she’s clothed in.

      • mosa 7.2.3
        19 February 2019 at 10:35 am

        At least when she is interviewed you don’t feel you are being lied to when she responds to the question even when she was being barracked by Dann on Q+A last night.
        She holds her own by being treated typically as a Labour PM would expect.
        Unlike Key no fireside chats in the ninth floor office here.

        • Shadrach 7.2.3.1
          19 February 2019 at 11:18 am

          Every time I hear her speak I feel like I’m being lied to. That is when she says anything mildly comprehensible.

          • Red Blooded One 7.2.3.1.1
            19 February 2019 at 11:32 am

            Poor Shadrach, you’ve got it bad eh buddy. I’m not surprised, if you’ve believed what’s come out of the mouths of the last three leaders of the National Party, that you’re struggling to understand an eloquent, direct and honest Prime Minister. Grab your sippy cup, because hopefully she’ll be PM for awhile yet.

            • Shadrach 7.2.3.1.1.1
              19 February 2019 at 1:24 pm

              You mistake me for someone with skin in the game. I run a business that is thankfully immune to politics, unless things get really bad. So far the Coalition has done little to alter the market led policies that have been such a success in NZ, despite her ‘comrade’ rhetoric. I’m not the slightest bit concerned about the current PM, or her Government. But as a keen observer of politics, I can spot slippery a mile away. She has it in spades.

              • left_forward …
                19 February 2019 at 1:57 pm

                Every time I read your posts I feel like I’m being lied to. That is when you say anything mildly comprehensible

              • Anne …
                19 February 2019 at 4:11 pm

                ….as a keen observer of politics, I can spot slippery a mile away. She has it in spades.

                For someone who claims he/she is a keen observer of politics you have a long way to go before your observations can be regarded as remotely reliable. In fact you are showing a complete lack of astute judgement if you genuinely believe Jacinda Ardern is slippery. She’s the opposite of slippery.

                But I think you know that. You’re just playing silly games.

                • Shadrach …
                  19 February 2019 at 4:30 pm

                  I’ve watched Jacinda carefully. She’s not only singularly ill prepared to be PM, she is most definitely learning the art of evasion very, very quickly.

                  • Muttonbird …
                    19 February 2019 at 4:48 pm

                    John Key defined the word slippery and was a master of the art of evasion. Yet something tells me you worship the ground he walks on for these very qualities.

              • woodart …
                19 February 2019 at 4:18 pm

                if you run a business,why are you spending so much time trolling on here ,instead of running your business? either you are a liar, or a very bad businessman,or a combination of both. as for your line about no skin in the game ,that also rings hollow for someone who has multiple trolling posts here.

          • Michelle 7.2.3.1.2
            19 February 2019 at 12:51 pm

            well Shadrach join the club we have had 9 years of being lied to its only fair we should share that

            • Shadrach 7.2.3.1.2.1
              19 February 2019 at 1:21 pm

              Politicians all lie. You can tell, their lips are moving. The joke is that some of you think Jacinda is any different. She isn’t.

              • left_forward …
                19 February 2019 at 1:59 pm

                RWNJ trolls all lie. You can tell, their lips are moving. The joke is that nobody thinks Shadders is any different. She isn’t.

                • Shadrach …
                  19 February 2019 at 2:12 pm

                  How can you tell their lips are moving??

                  • left_forward …
                    19 February 2019 at 2:16 pm

                    Well spotted – I almost left that out, but it would have ruined the symmetry :).(:

                  • left_forward …
                    19 February 2019 at 2:28 pm

                    When it is reflected back to you Sssshhhh, I hope you can see how mindless ‘say anything you like, doesn’t matter if true’ trolling looks from the other side of the mirror.

                    • Shadrach …
                      19 February 2019 at 4:13 pm

                      Can you point to anything I’ve written that you can prove is untrue?

                    • left_forward …
                      19 February 2019 at 5:12 pm

                      It is you that is making these disparaging claims about Jacinda, Shadders, therefore it is you who needs to show some evidence – this is the point I am making. Otherwise my claims about you are equally valid – based on nothing, simply made up.

                  • McFlock …
                    19 February 2019 at 3:13 pm

                    It’s text based. That means you’re probably trying to read. Based on experience with other rabid tories, this probably means that your lips are moving and your right index finger is occupied with keeping your place on the screen.

              • patricia bremner …
                19 February 2019 at 3:42 pm

                Well Shadrach I know Jacinda. She is very truthful. You on the other hand seem sour and convinced you are not hearing the the truth. Sad man? woman? How about you tell us what should be happening “Comrade?”

                • Shadrach …
                  19 February 2019 at 3:59 pm

                  You are at a disadvantage. I have the benefit if watching her non answer just about every question thrown at her, and obfuscate on the various failures she is overseeing. I am perfectly happy – while they spend time commissioning ever more talk fests, they aren’t actually stuffing anything up.

                  • left_forward …
                    19 February 2019 at 5:18 pm

                    Are you stalking her?

                    • Ankerrawshark …
                      19 February 2019 at 6:47 pm

                      Left forward ha ha ha

                      Actually I think we need a group response to shadrach. I suggest something like oh look here’s shadrach on the standard doing what she comes do what

                      Let have a competition re the best response.

                    • left_forward …
                      20 February 2019 at 6:54 am

                      Cheers Ankerrawshark.
                      Great idea.

  8. ken 8
    18 February 2019 at 10:35 pm

    This is generational change.
    National continues to try to appeal to stale pale males, while every day more people have their eighteenth birthday.

  9. Sanctuary 9
    19 February 2019 at 6:50 am

    National’s problem is they have trapped themselves with their own rhetoric around the last election into continuing to campaign on their 2008 policy platform that is now out of date.

    They need to deal with the undercurrent of Trumpism that is seeing them sending all the wrong social media messaging, update their policies and look to get rid of the rest of the worst of the Key-era arrogant assholes like Gerry Brownlee, David Carter, Pullya Benefit, Judith Collins etc.

    • RedLogix 9.1
      19 February 2019 at 7:01 am

      National’s problem runs deeper than this; 40 years of neo-liberalism which taught the price of everything but the value of nothing, has left an intellectual void on the right. John Key, the man with immense personal political capital, but could find nothing of lasting worth to spend it on has to be the exemplar of this materialistic malignancy.

      However nature does abhor a vacuum and it would be foolish to imagine National will not re-invent themselves.

      • JanM 9.1.1
        19 February 2019 at 7:08 am

        Well said, RedLogix.

      • AB 9.1.2
        19 February 2019 at 10:03 am

        I think a genuine re-invention is unlikely or even impossible for National. That’s if by re-invention we mean a true shift in ideology or values.
        At 42% they are within striking distance. We are much more likely to see a new packaging for the same old core concepts.
        The nature of the re-packaging will be very interesting though – will they go for a sort of Jacinda-lite niceness (Nikki Kaye)? Or Trumpist rage (Judith Collins)? Or pseudo-commonsensical, business-like bustle (Five-farms Amy)?

        “yet from those flames no light, but rather darkness visible”

      • patricia bremner 9.1.3
        19 February 2019 at 10:41 am

        Yes Red Logix, we have had the “Iron fist in the velvet glove” (Key) Will it be just the “Iron Fist” next time? Collins and Mitchell?

      • Michelle 9.1.4
        19 February 2019 at 12:54 pm

        national problems is they have got too big for their boots and they need a good kick in the proverbial backside I wonder if any of them will show their faces at Te Matatini this weekend in Wellies

        • veutoviper 9.1.4.1
          19 February 2019 at 1:07 pm

          Thanks for the reminder re Te Matatini this weekend. I will post details on Open Mike as off topic here. Thanks.

      • OnceWasTim 9.1.5
        19 February 2019 at 5:17 pm

        “……..it would be foolish to imagine National will not re-invent themselves.”

        They are hard at it. But instead of relying on Crosby Textor, they’ve decided the Caci Clinic and an ad agency is a cheaper option

  10. WeTheBleeple 10
    19 February 2019 at 7:41 am

    The incredulity with which the right face even the most basic challenge hints at sociopathic levels of ego and no conscience. It’s like they feel the issue is that they are even being spoken to by: women, poor, people of colour – people who should be cleaning their houses:

    Watch the world around, the same dumbfounded expression from Tories as they are called out by minorities. Incredulity. They look like 4 year olds who just got told to share.

  11. patricia bremner 11
    19 February 2019 at 8:06 am

    WTB, that “Told to share” says it all.

    They do not like sharing. Sharing is not “Winning”

    Their emotional and social IQ’s appear to be stunted.

    Mike Hoskins this morning trying to leg trip Jacinda Ardern about her promises.
    She clarified restated and left him no wiggle room as she deftly anticipated his verbal haymakers, so he cut her off with “That was Jacinda Ardern.”
    “We know Mike.. Isn’t she brilliant!!’

  12. Ankerrawshark 12
    19 February 2019 at 8:26 am

    Patricia you doing us on the standard a social service by listening to hosting. Someone recently said on the standard Jacinda was humiliated by hoskins when she went on his show, didn’t believe it so good to hear a direct report. In interviews alone she is stunnningly good.

  13. WILD KATIPO 13
    19 February 2019 at 8:29 am

    Yep,… there’s no dirt on the leader of the Labour party,… UNLIKE those in the ChiNational party….

    With their disclosing of private details to the public, or flogging off of our water to a foreign nation for a pittance and gaining fat profits, or making racist comments about South Aucklanders, or screwing with our education system ,or involving themselves in DIRTY POLITICS – or any other manner of low down DIRTY rotten far right wing tricks…

    Black Sabbath – “Dirty Women” Live 1978 – YouTube

  14. peterh 14
    19 February 2019 at 2:59 pm

    My wife and I come from very large familys for the last 20 years I have been a lone voice in a sea of blue. in the last 12 months both my daughters have changed. also several of my sisters .and all the young ones are now telling their old blue uncles to stop talking rubish. the polls will change for labour, there share will only go one way up

    • patricia bremner 14.1
      19 February 2019 at 3:52 pm

      Peter that is so good to hear. Jacinda is special. She genuinely wants what is good for NZers. and all who are here.

  15. Fireblade 15
    19 February 2019 at 3:03 pm

    Simon’s sausage is well cooked and embarrassingly shriveled. The sizzle has stopped and the flies are circling.

    Is the sausage still ok or would a new sausage be better? Maybe just forget the sausage and try a McMuffin instead?

    Unfortunately, all the options are unpalatable and at the end of the day, they will all produce a nasty smell and much hot air.

  16. McFlock 16
    19 February 2019 at 3:18 pm

    Really, the only speculation that remains is whether there’s a swift regicide, or whether it becomes a Labour-style Shakespearian tragedy over two or three terms.

    • left_forward 16.1
      19 February 2019 at 5:48 pm

      Yes, of course!
      Is there method in Soimon’s madness?
      O what cursed spite that he was born to set it right!

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    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • The Possum: Demon or Friend?

    Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Not a story

    Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry published its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • A tougher line on “proactive release”?

    The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 'Let's build a motorway costing $100 million per km, before emissions costs'

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Lester's Prescription – Positive Bleeding.

    I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Casey Costello gaslights Labour in the House

    Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone icon on the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Why is the Texas grid in such bad shape?

    This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Headline from 2021 The Texas grid, run by ERCOT, has had a rough few years. In 2021, winter storm Uri blacked out much of the state for several days. About a week ago, Hurricane Beryl knocked out ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

    Open access notables Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
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