Colmar Brunton Feb 2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:24 pm, February 18th, 2019 - 84 comments
Categories: Politics, polls - Tags: ,

Another poll, another solid result for the Labour led Government.

The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll suggests a 2 party left government with a 6-8 seat majority.

LAB 45% (+2), GRN 6% (+1), NZF 3% (-1)

NAT 42% (-4), MAO 1%, ACT 1%, TOP 1% 

However, history says NZ First will cross the 5% threshold, so Labour with the choice of either of the current coalition partners to govern looks possible. Of course, I’d expect Labour to carry the coalition on in that event, so No Change looks to be the winner.

The loser?

Well, I suppose if one were charitable, at least Simon Bridges can say Judith Collins isn’t actually ahead in this poll. At 6% each, even combined they can’t dent Jacinda Ardern’s 44% rating.

Keep those attack ads coming, Tories.

They’re really going to make the difference.

 

84 comments on “Colmar Brunton Feb 2019”

  1. Muttonbird 1

    Yeah, another great result for New Zealand and this seems to confirm Kiwis really, really hate the attack style politics which the National Party thinks they are onto a winner with.

    They also hate sordid, extramarital and acrimonious affairs between caucus members. They hate workplace bullying, and they hate corruption, electoral and otherwise. All of which the Nats have shown in spades since they got turfed out.

    Under Bridges, they look like an angry, drunk person shouting at people at the end of a messy night. The trouble for them is the alternatives will be worse.

    Hate to be them.

    • Enough is Enough 1.1

      Kiwis really, really hate the attack style politics which the National Party thinks they are onto a winner with.

      On the basis of this poll 41% wouldn’t back up your assertion

      • Muttonbird 1.1.1

        41% and dropping!

        • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.1

          Yeah it is. The concern is Labour seems to be doing what National did to its coalition partners and cannibalising them.

          Until I see National in the low 30s and the Greens consistently in double figures I will remain on edge and a little panicked.

  2. ken 2

    Hopefully, all the National Party MPs will continue to be 110% behind their leader.

    • Simon needs to go through another couple of Election’s to build his profile & strength of character for the PM’s job, he is a mere babe in the woods at present and is floundering a bit.

  3. I predict NZF will get 9-10% in the 2020 Election as some voters from National will want to take out some Insurance against a Labour/Green Coalition or an outright Labour Government which the polls are indicating at present.

    Many are predicting the demise of NZF at the next 2020 Election and many believe that NZF will fold when Winston retires.

  4. Stuart Munro 4

    Long may National vacillate with Judith and Simon level pegging on 6% 😀

    • Really the only 2 alternatives at present.

      • Stuart Munro 4.1.1

        Veutoviper found one of the new ladies who has plenty of smarts – but she’d have a forest of deadwood to clearfell even to reach the shadow cabinet.

        • veutoviper 4.1.1.1

          I am digging deep in my memory to try and recollect who I might have been referring to … LOL.

          Perhaps Nicola Willis? – https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/members-of-parliament/willis-nicola/

          She has plenty of smarts – intelligence, experience working in the parliamentary environment before becoming a MP etc – but personally I certainly don’t support her politic views or quite bluntly, her over-confidence and ambition at times.

          I do expect to see her rise rapidly through the ranks. However, there are several other new National women also of similar type, eg Erica Stanford, who is an electorate MP who came into Parliament in that capacity in Sept 2017, as opposed to a list one like Willis who came some months later in April 2018 on the departure of Stephen Joyce. I anticipate some competition to Willis from such corners, and probably from some of the younger males who have come in before her etc.

          I certainly don’t see Willis or any of these others seeking top positions until well after the 2020 election.

          PS – Sarah Dowie made a mercurial rise in list position when Bridges became leader of National in Feb 2018. She and Ross rose 19 places each at that time, the highest rise of anyone in that round. I doubt we will see her making any moves towards higher placings in the immediate future, if ever.

          • Stuart Munro 4.1.1.1.1

            I expect they’ll make an appearance a little sooner than ordinarily, if National continues to plummet, but certainly not before a solid electoral humiliation.

            Yes, I think it might’ve been Willis. Characteristic of National that no-one will be going anywhere on merit until every other possibility, and several impossibilities, have been exhausted.

      • Muttonbird 4.1.2

        Pullya Benefit is making a run up the rail with a stomach stapling followed by a few photoshoots.

        Her message to the overweight women of New Zealand; you too can look like me if you can afford surgery.

  5. mary_a 5

    Another rogue poll Simon, do you think?

    No doubt side kick Bennett will make some ridiculous statement to the effect Natz is doing so well, it can afford to ignore the recent polls, or something along those lines!

    Well done Labour and the Greens. Keep up the good work and don’t become complacent.

    Looking forward to Parliament tomorrow 🙂

  6. Shadrach 6

    The CM poll taken between 14-19 February 2009 (roughly the same time in the electoral cycle) gave the following results:

    National 57%
    Labour 31%
    Greens 7%
    Act 2%
    Maori 2%
    NZF 1%

    For preferred PM, John Key was on 51%, Phil Goff on 6%.

    National’s current polling at 42% is meteoric compared with Labour’s polling at a similar stage, which is even the more remarkable given the fact that Bridges personal popularity seems to be about the same as was Goff’s. The difference is clearly Jacinda Ardern, who despite some serious slip ups seems to have the same Teflon coating that Key and Clark possessed. Good on her.

    • Muttonbird 6.1

      May 2010 was the nearest point in the electoral cycle for Colmar Brunton:

      National 49.0% (-5.0%)
      Labour 33.0% (nc)
      Green 7.0% (+2.3%)
      ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
      Maori 3.6% (+1.5%)
      United Future 0.5% (+0.3%)
      Progressive 0.5% (+0.3%)
      NZ First 1.3% (-0.4%)

      Labour/Greens at 51% now. Nats/ACT at 51% then.

      Identical.

      • Shadrach 6.1.1

        My apologies, got the dates wrong. The point stands however. Interesting that NZF was so low at that point too.

      • alwyn 6.1.2

        I realise why you chose the May Poll.
        However the better comparison, based on the time since the previous election, is in fact the Colmar Brunton poll of 10-14 April. That had National on 54, Labour on 33 and Greens on 5.
        The gap is based on the fact that the 2008 election was on 8 November and the 2017 election was on 23 September. That is about 6 weeks so I chose the first 1NCB poll taken after late March 2010.
        Your choice of 30 May is far to late. It is also heavily influenced by being shortly after the Budget.

        • Muttonbird 6.1.2.1

          Nope. I chose that one because it was the only one I could find.

          What happened in the 2010 budget to tank National’s support so much? I wonder if it was because they lied and raised GST to 15%.

    • Peter 6.2

      Yeah, with such meteoric strong polling by National, Labour and Co. should chuck in the towel now for the next election.

      • Shadrach 6.2.1

        That wasn’t my point at all. When National came in in 2008, they did so with a very strong electoral mandate. Labour don’t have anywhere near that mandate, but they do have parliamentary support parties. But Nationals support after 9 years in government is still very high.

        • Psycho Milt 6.2.1.1

          National’s scoring highly because ACT’s decrepitude makes it the only option on the right. The left has two options, Labour and the Greens. That makes the only useful comparison the National/ACT support level vs the Labour/Greens support level, which is currently 43 vs 51. That’s a sizable mandate if you ask me.

          • Shadrach 6.2.1.1.1

            ACT was only scoring 2% in 2010. People vote for the party they want to be in Government. In the last election labour’s vote was lower than National’s support is now. It’s just an observation.

  7. Ankerrawshark 7

    Yep good on jacinda, we owe her a lot. But rather than Teflon I think people gets she’s genuine and she cares and she’s very smart. High eq.

    • patricia bremner 7.1

      1000% She is gold.

    • Shadrach 7.2

      Nah, it’s Teflon. But good on her.

      • patricia bremner 7.2.1

        shadrach there is nothing plastic about Jacinda.

        • Shadrach 7.2.1.1

          Oh no. She’s broken promises, lost control of some of her senior cabinet ministers and occasionally goes AWOL, but there’s nothing plastic about her. No siree.

      • Robert Guyton 7.2.2

        “But good on her”
        You’ve unconsciously understood what she’s clothed in.

      • mosa 7.2.3

        At least when she is interviewed you don’t feel you are being lied to when she responds to the question even when she was being barracked by Dann on Q+A last night.
        She holds her own by being treated typically as a Labour PM would expect.
        Unlike Key no fireside chats in the ninth floor office here.

        • Shadrach 7.2.3.1

          Every time I hear her speak I feel like I’m being lied to. That is when she says anything mildly comprehensible.

          • Red Blooded One 7.2.3.1.1

            Poor Shadrach, you’ve got it bad eh buddy. I’m not surprised, if you’ve believed what’s come out of the mouths of the last three leaders of the National Party, that you’re struggling to understand an eloquent, direct and honest Prime Minister. Grab your sippy cup, because hopefully she’ll be PM for awhile yet.

            • Shadrach 7.2.3.1.1.1

              You mistake me for someone with skin in the game. I run a business that is thankfully immune to politics, unless things get really bad. So far the Coalition has done little to alter the market led policies that have been such a success in NZ, despite her ‘comrade’ rhetoric. I’m not the slightest bit concerned about the current PM, or her Government. But as a keen observer of politics, I can spot slippery a mile away. She has it in spades.

              • left_forward

                Every time I read your posts I feel like I’m being lied to. That is when you say anything mildly comprehensible

              • Anne

                ….as a keen observer of politics, I can spot slippery a mile away. She has it in spades.

                For someone who claims he/she is a keen observer of politics you have a long way to go before your observations can be regarded as remotely reliable. In fact you are showing a complete lack of astute judgement if you genuinely believe Jacinda Ardern is slippery. She’s the opposite of slippery.

                But I think you know that. You’re just playing silly games.

                • Shadrach

                  I’ve watched Jacinda carefully. She’s not only singularly ill prepared to be PM, she is most definitely learning the art of evasion very, very quickly.

                  • Muttonbird

                    John Key defined the word slippery and was a master of the art of evasion. Yet something tells me you worship the ground he walks on for these very qualities.

              • woodart

                if you run a business,why are you spending so much time trolling on here ,instead of running your business? either you are a liar, or a very bad businessman,or a combination of both. as for your line about no skin in the game ,that also rings hollow for someone who has multiple trolling posts here.

          • Michelle 7.2.3.1.2

            well Shadrach join the club we have had 9 years of being lied to its only fair we should share that

            • Shadrach 7.2.3.1.2.1

              Politicians all lie. You can tell, their lips are moving. The joke is that some of you think Jacinda is any different. She isn’t.

              • left_forward

                RWNJ trolls all lie. You can tell, their lips are moving. The joke is that nobody thinks Shadders is any different. She isn’t.

                • Shadrach

                  How can you tell their lips are moving??

                  • left_forward

                    Well spotted – I almost left that out, but it would have ruined the symmetry :).(:

                  • left_forward

                    When it is reflected back to you Sssshhhh, I hope you can see how mindless ‘say anything you like, doesn’t matter if true’ trolling looks from the other side of the mirror.

                    • Shadrach

                      Can you point to anything I’ve written that you can prove is untrue?

                    • left_forward

                      It is you that is making these disparaging claims about Jacinda, Shadders, therefore it is you who needs to show some evidence – this is the point I am making. Otherwise my claims about you are equally valid – based on nothing, simply made up.

                  • McFlock

                    It’s text based. That means you’re probably trying to read. Based on experience with other rabid tories, this probably means that your lips are moving and your right index finger is occupied with keeping your place on the screen.

              • patricia bremner

                Well Shadrach I know Jacinda. She is very truthful. You on the other hand seem sour and convinced you are not hearing the the truth. Sad man? woman? How about you tell us what should be happening “Comrade?”

                • Shadrach

                  You are at a disadvantage. I have the benefit if watching her non answer just about every question thrown at her, and obfuscate on the various failures she is overseeing. I am perfectly happy – while they spend time commissioning ever more talk fests, they aren’t actually stuffing anything up.

                  • left_forward

                    Are you stalking her?

                    • Ankerrawshark

                      Left forward ha ha ha

                      Actually I think we need a group response to shadrach. I suggest something like oh look here’s shadrach on the standard doing what she comes do what

                      Let have a competition re the best response.

                    • left_forward

                      Cheers Ankerrawshark.
                      Great idea.

  8. ken 8

    This is generational change.
    National continues to try to appeal to stale pale males, while every day more people have their eighteenth birthday.

  9. Sanctuary 9

    National’s problem is they have trapped themselves with their own rhetoric around the last election into continuing to campaign on their 2008 policy platform that is now out of date.

    They need to deal with the undercurrent of Trumpism that is seeing them sending all the wrong social media messaging, update their policies and look to get rid of the rest of the worst of the Key-era arrogant assholes like Gerry Brownlee, David Carter, Pullya Benefit, Judith Collins etc.

    • RedLogix 9.1

      National’s problem runs deeper than this; 40 years of neo-liberalism which taught the price of everything but the value of nothing, has left an intellectual void on the right. John Key, the man with immense personal political capital, but could find nothing of lasting worth to spend it on has to be the exemplar of this materialistic malignancy.

      However nature does abhor a vacuum and it would be foolish to imagine National will not re-invent themselves.

      • JanM 9.1.1

        Well said, RedLogix.

      • AB 9.1.2

        I think a genuine re-invention is unlikely or even impossible for National. That’s if by re-invention we mean a true shift in ideology or values.
        At 42% they are within striking distance. We are much more likely to see a new packaging for the same old core concepts.
        The nature of the re-packaging will be very interesting though – will they go for a sort of Jacinda-lite niceness (Nikki Kaye)? Or Trumpist rage (Judith Collins)? Or pseudo-commonsensical, business-like bustle (Five-farms Amy)?

        “yet from those flames no light, but rather darkness visible”

      • patricia bremner 9.1.3

        Yes Red Logix, we have had the “Iron fist in the velvet glove” (Key) Will it be just the “Iron Fist” next time? Collins and Mitchell?

      • Michelle 9.1.4

        national problems is they have got too big for their boots and they need a good kick in the proverbial backside I wonder if any of them will show their faces at Te Matatini this weekend in Wellies

        • veutoviper 9.1.4.1

          Thanks for the reminder re Te Matatini this weekend. I will post details on Open Mike as off topic here. Thanks.

      • OnceWasTim 9.1.5

        “……..it would be foolish to imagine National will not re-invent themselves.”

        They are hard at it. But instead of relying on Crosby Textor, they’ve decided the Caci Clinic and an ad agency is a cheaper option

  10. WeTheBleeple 10

    The incredulity with which the right face even the most basic challenge hints at sociopathic levels of ego and no conscience. It’s like they feel the issue is that they are even being spoken to by: women, poor, people of colour – people who should be cleaning their houses:

    Watch the world around, the same dumbfounded expression from Tories as they are called out by minorities. Incredulity. They look like 4 year olds who just got told to share.

  11. patricia bremner 11

    WTB, that “Told to share” says it all.

    They do not like sharing. Sharing is not “Winning”

    Their emotional and social IQ’s appear to be stunted.

    Mike Hoskins this morning trying to leg trip Jacinda Ardern about her promises.
    She clarified restated and left him no wiggle room as she deftly anticipated his verbal haymakers, so he cut her off with “That was Jacinda Ardern.”
    “We know Mike.. Isn’t she brilliant!!’

  12. Ankerrawshark 12

    Patricia you doing us on the standard a social service by listening to hosting. Someone recently said on the standard Jacinda was humiliated by hoskins when she went on his show, didn’t believe it so good to hear a direct report. In interviews alone she is stunnningly good.

  13. Yep,… there’s no dirt on the leader of the Labour party,… UNLIKE those in the ChiNational party….

    With their disclosing of private details to the public, or flogging off of our water to a foreign nation for a pittance and gaining fat profits, or making racist comments about South Aucklanders, or screwing with our education system ,or involving themselves in DIRTY POLITICS – or any other manner of low down DIRTY rotten far right wing tricks…

    Black Sabbath – “Dirty Women” Live 1978 – YouTube

  14. peterh 14

    My wife and I come from very large familys for the last 20 years I have been a lone voice in a sea of blue. in the last 12 months both my daughters have changed. also several of my sisters .and all the young ones are now telling their old blue uncles to stop talking rubish. the polls will change for labour, there share will only go one way up

    • patricia bremner 14.1

      Peter that is so good to hear. Jacinda is special. She genuinely wants what is good for NZers. and all who are here.

  15. Fireblade 15

    Simon’s sausage is well cooked and embarrassingly shriveled. The sizzle has stopped and the flies are circling.

    Is the sausage still ok or would a new sausage be better? Maybe just forget the sausage and try a McMuffin instead?

    Unfortunately, all the options are unpalatable and at the end of the day, they will all produce a nasty smell and much hot air.

  16. McFlock 16

    Really, the only speculation that remains is whether there’s a swift regicide, or whether it becomes a Labour-style Shakespearian tragedy over two or three terms.

    • left_forward 16.1

      Yes, of course!
      Is there method in Soimon’s madness?
      O what cursed spite that he was born to set it right!

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