A new Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll has delivered another drop for Labour and also for National… The poll released today has Te Pāti Māori at 5 per cent (up 1.5 points) for the first time in the poll’s history. It follows a similarly strong result of 4 per cent for the party in the Talbot Mills poll.
However, the news was not good for either Labour or National: National was still ahead of Labour but had dropped to 33 per cent – down three points since the last poll in June. Labour had dropped two to 31 per cent and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins took a big hit as preferred Prime Minister, dropping from 29 per cent to 23 per cent. He is now only just ahead of National leader Christopher Luxon on 20 per cent, who also dropped by three points.
The Act Party was holding firm at 13 per cent and the Green Party had dropped one to 9 per cent. NZ First was on 3.3 per cent – up 1.7.
If the poll result were delivered on election night and National stuck to its pledge not to govern with Te Pāti Māori, it would result in a hung Parliament: the Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori grouping would have 60 seats, and National and Act would have 60. The poll of 1000 eligible voters was taken from July 2-10 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.
The poll also showed a record low for those who believed the country was heading in the wrong direction: 22.1 per cent (-2.7 points on last month) of New Zealanders thought the country was heading in the right direction, while 64.5 per cent (+7.1 points) thought it was heading in the wrong direction. The polling commentary said that was a new record low for the net country direction of -42.4 per cent (-9.8 points).
If you're thinking Claire Trevett got the first statement in her final paragraph wrong, you're quite right about that!
As TDB has pointed out all year, this election will be decided by who scares NZ most, a Labour/Green/Maori Party or an ACT/National Government.
What must shock the right wing strategists is that a a staggering 64.5% (+7.1) say the country is going in the wrong direction and yet ACT and National still can’t get a majority!
On this basis I think the seats would fall 61/59 but it is very close. Interestingly the Right was 5.5% ahead in Curia in January…now 1.5%.Maybe the Mills poll is a rogue.
I love this from Trevett:
"If the poll result were delivered on election night and National stuck to its pledge not to govern with Te Pāti Māori, it would result in a hung Parliament"
The Nats can pledge what they want-TPM have made it clear they will not work with Seymour and (while I don't think they have specifically ruled out the Nats?) I doubt if they would work with Luxon.
You're right to point to the close balance – seems to be within the margin of error. But the key point is that TPM are hovering on the threshold, indicating a significant sudden shift in Maori political allegiance. Confirmed by 3 polls now.
Yeah true. I'm just seeing that threshold effect as a signal of a huge undercurrent suddenly happening. As I mentioned (yesterday or this morning, I forget), we could see a Maori Labour revolt. The poll shift may be a precursor to that. Like what happened with Tau Henare & co a quarter century back, when they all went to NZF…
Fronting media on Wednesday afternoon, Robertson said he wouldn't say he was gutted by Hipkins' decision to kill off the tax-switch. "What I would say is it's an idea that clearly I think had some merit. I wouldn't have put so much work into it if I didn't think that it had merit," he said.
"But I also am a team player and I'm also somebody who's very conscious of the economic conditions that we're in." He said it was his job to look at all options and the wealth tax aspect wouldn't have come into effect until after the election, allowing Labour to campaign on it and gain a mandate.
So the PM decided the thing wasn't worth a mandate. He's gambling his political career on neoliberalism. If a poll from the main msm channels brings Labour in below 30%, it'll look like a loser's gamble. Angry Andy bailed out when the polls did that to him.
Asked what was the point of the Labour Party if it didn't do what it believed in, Robertson listed a number of areas where he believes the Government's made a difference, like "building state homes" and "improving the schools that our kids learn in".
Not clear your working definition of neoliberalism necessarily makes sense. I usually define it as politicians following along too closely with neo-classical (mainstream) economic ideas. This fits quite well with the range of even left wing economists (Paul Krugman, Larry Summers) who championed globalisation while being clearly partisan democratic.
Anyway, one of the key ideas going in mainstream economic thought is that its the govt deficit which is driving economic issues presently. This is also one of the key goals of certain tax reforms to minimize govt deficits. I think if we are to judge this neoliberal we need to see what kind of spending is being described here along with any tax changes.
I dismissed thinking of Robertson as particularly neo-liberal after he overruled treasury and removed interest deductions from rental investments. I think that also worked to cool the housing market.
Any divergence from the standard ideologue neolib in the direction of pragmatic adaption to circumstance is good, I agree. Fair enough to cede that point in Labour's favour but many won't see it my way, so I wouldn't discount a revulsion effect.
The strategy of driving Labour supporters to Greens (and campaigning in the centre) might be one to prevent a NACT coalition from being able to form a government.
If Labour and National both fall to 30% with a transfer to Greens and NZF (National Party supporters and others who do not want National to be beholden to ACT in coalition).
National and Labour 30%
ACTand Greens 10%
NZF (would only support a National led government)and TPM 5%
TOP 3% (need to win a seat)
wasted vote 4%
3% who decide the election, or who do not vote.
Remembering how National avoided coalitions 2008-2017 and had a range of support partners and how NZF would not provide c and s to NACT, the most likely scenario on the right is a National minority supported by both ACT and NZF.
But the possibility of an alternative to ACT being Greens would reduce their leverage on National still further.
(the idea of NZF and Greens being the support partners for National 2023-2026 might amuse BE)
And on the left, a Labour minority supported on c and s by Greens and TPM.
However, so far we have not seen the Greens picking up disaffected Labour vote (or, if they are, they are losing votes to TPM and/or TOP in equal amounts).
[NB: I don't believe the weirdly low TOP figure in the latest Curia poll – I think it's an outlier]
ACT seem to be consistently polling around 3% higher than the Greens – over the last few months. Which seems to me to reflect that there is not an even more right-wing party than ACT, but there is a perception that either/or TOP or TPM are more left-wing than the GP. [using left and right in a broad-brush sense here]
I don't realistically see NZF as making a come-back (though with Winston, you never know – if anyone could pull off a Lazarus, it would be him).
Your scenario of centrists voting left because they are scared by ACT, holds equally for centrists voting right because they are scared by TPM, TOP and GP.
I think this is just too close to call – as every poll for the last year has been.
Do your mean 2020? If so, that was really more an endorsement of Ardern over Covid than tactical voting to block the Greens.
Equally, centrists might desert Labour in order to prevent a strong TPM/Green (possibly TOP) tail wagging the Labour dog.
I really don't think that many of them would trust Peters. He made it very clear in 2017 that the person who came first was Peters.
And, I think you'd be seriously underestimating Seymour. If he's getting 13%+ for ACT, he's not going to be undercut by Peters at 5%.
In order for Peters to have any leverage – he'd have to be prepared to negotiate with Labour (while he's ruled it out, I wouldn't put it past him to weasel a way through).
And, I can't realistically see either the GP or TPM being prepared to play second fiddle (again) to Peters – bad enough to have policies watered down by Labour, but have them further emasculated by NZF would be a bridge too far.
You could end up with a minority government, with cross-bench support – on a case by case basis. Which would be a nightmare for actually getting legislation enacted – but has worked overseas.
Yes 2020. After 2019, Labour support grew and National voters realised they could not win, so voted tactically.
GAME STRATEGY (if the right win)
Peters will offer support to National as he has said, but not for a NACT coalition.
That either means a National minority government backed by ACT and NZF, or a NACT coalition that has no majority on c and s.
And there is nothing Seymour can do about it. That will be debilitating. And something some in National would vote for.
The outcome is WP then allowing a National government backed by ACT as support partner and NZF providing confidence and supply (having prevented a NACT government) and able to block some legislation.
First movers will be Maori, my hunch says. However I have no inside knowledge of Labour or Maori politics. Just that I haven't forgotten that Labour forced Mat Rata out (they'd deny that of course) and guess who joined him in the Alliance? Willie.
Now that TMP are significant players in this game, will they poll even higher during the campaign? Willie's mate JT may orchestrate a deal. Depends how alienated the Labour Maori cabal were by Labour's failure to openly support co-governance.
A TDB commentator pointed to that for a different reason:
Vast majority saying the country is going in the wrong direction. It was a 50/50 at the last election. This government will get rinsed at the election and the pollsters wont see it coming.
Rinsed = booted, I presume. Someone better give Hipkins a magic wand. Campaigning on neoliberalism against National doing the same, he'll need it.
random logic. The last election was an anomaly because of the pandemic. Anyone not understanding that in their logic, is missing a major piece of the puzzle. I have no idea who they are but it sounds like RW talking points memo stuff. Not that lefties don't do that as well (looking at Bomber in particular).
A race to diminish expectations is most certainly going to result in diminished participation, however there are no consequences but some tutting and fretting about turnout afterwards.
What's saddening is the seeming misunderstanding of the potential MMP allows; 'Major' parties become 'minor' parties and vice versa. The political status quo is a choice; Every* party vote counts.
I'm definitely seeing this from some voters.
Don't trust Hipkins/Labour; Don't like Luxon/National; Don't want any of the 'radical' parties.
Just won't vote….
News hub article about Grant talking about budget 2023 tax policies Hipkins ruled out:
"They showed the Government considered a tax-switch, which would have included a $10,000 tax-free threshold and other smaller changes paid for by a 1.5 percent tax on net wealth over $5 million. The tax wouldn't have applied to some personal assets, like the family home, and would have only captured about 46,000 New Zealanders."
I'm actually starting to hate Hipkins, the man has zero charisma and zero political instinct other than "no"
This would have been major for Labour, a major jumpstart and would have put action to Hipkins "bread and butter" politics.
If the Labour are able to lead a third term government, it'll be inspite of Hipkins, not because of him.
Haven't yet found a clip of Hipkins – did he just issue a press release?
“Chris Hipkins has ruled out introducing a wealth tax or capital gains tax if Labour is re-elected in October.
“I’m confirming today that under a government I lead there will be no wealth or capital gains tax after the election. End of story,” Hipkins said in a statement.”
it's so annoying that we rely on the MSM to see their version of what happens at stand ups. The public should have access to the whole video and audio.
Ukraine acknowledges the death of the commander of a Russian submarine said to have launched missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Apparently they have no idea who did it but they do know the type of firearm used, the weather in the park at the time and are confident there were no witnesses.
NATO informs Ukraine it cannot join until the war is over – via a peace with Russia. Tomorrow a message to Kiev, any peace treaty will include the term never to join NATO. When the light dawns … a message back to the bunker, so the terms of the treaty would be that Russia military leaves Crimea and the Donbass and Ukraine does not join NATO.
This should never have started, but they need a path out of where they are.
Stanislav Rzhitsky, who also commanded a Black Sea Fleet submarine, was shot four times while jogging on the morning of July 10 and died at the scene. The moroon used to share his paths on an app for runners, receiving a like even by Kyrylo Budanov.
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Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
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Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
The Government Communications Security Bureau denies hosting a foreign spying capability flagged by the watchdog, differentiating it from the system recently criticised. ...
RNZ News A group of academic staff at New Zealand’s largest university have expressed concern at the administration’s move to block a protest encampment that was planned to take place on campus calling for support for the rights of Palestinians. This week, the University of Auckland warned that while it ...
Genterwocky After a hard days marching, Sir Doocey calls in at the Village Tavern For a pint of ale and a pork pie. The grim villagers stare at him. “Do not be travelling on the forest road,” warns a crusty old beak. “And why is that, antique peasant?” Grins Sir ...
Political conferences after a party returns to power are usually a chance for some healthy, even unhealthy backslapping. Yet National Party president Sylvia Wood’s address to its mainland representatives on Saturday hardly contained the unalloyed delight that one might have expected following National’s escape from the wilderness of opposition. Yes, ...
Comment: Almost half the world is voting in national elections this year and artificial intelligence is the elephant in the room. There are genuine fears AI-generated or AI-edited deepfakes will potentially manipulate election outcomes not just in the US and UK, but critically in countries such as India. For that ...
Ahead of the reality franchise’s return to New Zealand, allow us to introduce the eight brides and grooms. Chuck on a veil and tie back your man bun, because it’s time to say “I do” to a new season of Married at First Sight NZ. The reality TV “social experiment” ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University Every year on June 1, student debt in Australia is indexed to inflation. In 2023, high inflation pushed the indexation rate to 7.1%, the highest since 1990. This ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Changes in the May 14 budget will cut the student debt of more than three million people, wiping more than $3 billion from what people owe. The government will cap the HELP indexation rate ...
Asia Pacific Report The prosecutor’s office at the International Criminal Court (ICC) has appealed for an end to what it calls intimidation of its staff, saying such threats could constitute an offence against the “administration of justice” by the world’s permanent war crimes court. The Hague-based office of ICC Prosecutor ...
By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk A women’s union in New Caledonia has staged a sit-in protest this week to support senior Kanak indigenous journalist Thérèse Waia, who works for public broadcaster Nouvelle-Calédonie la Première, after a smear attack by critics. The peaceful demonstration was held on ...
New Zealand Food Safety is monitoring overseas recalls of Indian packaged spice products manufactured by MDH and Everest due to concerns over a cancer-causing pesticide. ...
By Stephen Wright and Stefan Armbruster of BenarNews Fiji’s ranking in a global press freedom index has jumped into the top tier of countries with free or mostly free media after its government last year repealed a draconian law that threatened journalists with prison for doing their jobs. Fiji’s improvement ...
We might be in Invercargill but all anyone can talk about is Gore. Specifically, Salford Street. That’s where three-year-old Lachlan Jones lived, south of the centre of town, between the A&P Showgrounds and the Mataura River. Roughly 1.2 km away from the single level home he lived in with his ...
MONDAY I lined up the latest round of civil servants from city hall against the wall, and signalled for the firing squad to drop their rifles. I stepped up onto a wooden crate to look at the office workers in the eye. But that didn’t feel right, so I found ...
Keen hiker and second-year MSc student Liam Hewson wears two hats when he’s in the great outdoors. “The scientist in me appreciates nature and goes, ‘Oh, there’s that thing and there’s another thing,’ but then the tramper and the outdoorsy person in me thinks, ‘Cool bush.’” Born and bred in ...
After a long and illustrious career as a goal kicker, Dan Carter’s favourite way to unwind is… kicking goals. Why can’t he get enough of it? And what it’s like to watch him do it for an hour straight? A semicircle of people wielding cameras and phones has formed in ...
Dame Susan Devoy takes us through her life in television, including late night ER debriefs, her proudest CTI moment and the show she watches in secret. Quite aside from her four world champion squash titles, Dame Susan Devoy will likely go down in history as one of the best Celebrity ...
Hera Lindsay Bird reveals the best places in Ōtepoti to score more for your apocalypse-prep book hoard.Sometimes I get the feeling I’ve been killed in a car crash, and this second half of my life is just the brain unspooling itself, like one of those episodes of a hospital ...
ThreeNow’s new murder mystery series takes us on a dark, damp journey into the Australian wilderness.This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. High Country is ThreeNow’s new Australian eight-part crime drama, set in a remote part of the Victorian highlands. It tells ...
Introducing a new way to read The Spinoff every weekend. After nearly 10 years of being an online magazine, we’re finally embracing the weekend liftout. Despite our best efforts to convince you otherwise, writers and editors at The Spinoff don’t work weekend. It is through the sheer power of technology ...
Tip one: let yourself be nurtured by this big old man. Tip two: don’t ask him to adopt you. So, you’ve arrived at your first session with a new therapist. He tells you to make yourself comfortable and you opt for the tweed armchair, hoping it makes you look like ...
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Former Olympic swimmer James Magnussen has already started training for the Enhanced games, though says he won’t start taking performance enhancing substances until about nine months out from the competition. The Australian world champion was the first athlete to be announced by Enhanced, but he says the organisation has had ...
Everyone thinks he’s dead. Every day they expect his body to be washed up along the coast. Most likely up Karitane way, the way the tide’s running. But nobody’ll be too surprised if his body’s never found. Even in death he wouldn’t have wished for such attention. He would have ...
Council members voted 21 to 4 in favour of Ahluwalia returning to the Laucala campus following a much-awaited meeting in Vanuatu this week. It comes as USP and its two unions — the Association of the University of the South Pacific Staff (AUSPS) and the Administration and Support Staff Union ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicola Henry, Professor & Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Social and Global Studies Centre, RMIT University Shutterstock Following an emergency meeting of the National Cabinet this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a raft of measures to tackle the problem ...
Analysis - A poll showing the opposition is more popular than the government raises questions, politicians go through their 'trial by pay rise' and a Green MP loses her cool in the debating chamber. ...
The entire stretch of Tokomaru Bay on the East Coast will be subject to a joint customary marine title for two hapū, and extending up to four miles out to sea. A High Court judge has found the two groups, who during the case settled a dispute over boundaries for ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Hall, Lecturer, Media & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University A longstanding feud between TikTok and Universal Music Group seems to have finally reached an end, with both parties signing a deal that will see Universal-backed music returned to the social media ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Siobhan O’Dean, Postdoctoral Research Associate, The Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney After several highly publicised alleged murders of women in Australia, the Albanese government this week pledged more than A$925 million over five years ...
Political parties have now fully disclosed the donations they received last year - with National getting more than double the cash of any other party. ...
A Pacific regionalism expert has called out New Zealand's Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters for withholding information from the public on AUKUS military pact. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard de Grijs, Professor of Astrophysics, Macquarie University Bruno Scramgnon/Pexels All systems are “go” for tonight’s launch of China’s next step in a carefully planned lunar exploration program. Placed on top of a powerful Long March 5 rocket, the Chang’e 6 ...
National returned a massive donation the day after a Newsroom story linked the donors to a property being investigated for operating unlawfully as a migrant workers’ hostel. The party’s 2023 donation filings, released on Friday, show it returned a $200,000 donation from Buen Holdings on August 23. That was the ...
Pacific Media Watch New Zealand has slumped to an unprecedented 19th place in the annual Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index survey released today on World Press Freedom Day — May 3. This was a drop of six places from 13th last year when it slipped out of its ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Political Historian and Administrator Officer, Australian Historical Association, Australian National University Australia has had its fair share of public record-keeping controversies in recent years. Some have been mere farce, as in the case of two formerly government-owned filing cabinets (containing ...
Heavenly Culture, World Peace, Restoration of Light (HWPL), a United Nations-affiliated organization dedicated to fostering peace through civilian-led initiatives, has issued a statement in response to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. ...
A poem by Tessa Keenan, from AUP New Poets 10. Mātou These days we are a photograph; one of a farm strewn with cows that used to be bright harakeke or swamp. The kids point at it and say the sun sits behind a smudge (left by someone at Christmas); ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lennon Y.C. Chang, Associate Professor of Cyber Risk and Policy, Deakin University Taiwan stands out as a beacon of democracy, innovation and resilience in an increasingly autocratic region. But this is under growing threat. In recent years, China has used a variety ...
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A week that began in triumph ended in an all-too-familiar disaster for the Green Party. Duncan Greive asks if there’s something in the mission that breaks its best and brightest. A long, strange week for the Green party began with a fantastic poll result. On one level this is hardly ...
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What’s to blame for the coalition’s choppy start? Six months in, and the mojo meter is in the doldrums. A new poll would put National out of power and sees its leader, Chris Luxon, sliding in popularity. How much is it about policy, how much coalition management and a perception ...
The striking report goes far beyond the proposed repeal of the Oranga Tamariki Act’s Treaty of Waitangi provision, and its impact should be felt far beyond the unique circumstances of the claim it addresses. Earlier this week, the Waitangi Tribunal released an interim report on the government’s proposed repeal of ...
The world has been experiencing a productivity slowdown, from which New Zealand has not been exempt. COVID-19 temporarily boosted labour productivity, but more recently, productivity has retreated. The overall trend since 2007 has been one of slow productivity ...
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Bob Carr intends to launch legal action against Winston Peters and Julie Anne Genter is facing a second allegation of bullying. Both sucked the air out of an announcement on education, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in ...
If you're thinking Claire Trevett got the first statement in her final paragraph wrong, you're quite right about that!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-taxpayers-union-curia-poll-delivers-more-bad-news-to-labours-chris-hipkins-and-nationals-chris-luxon-but-a-boost-for-te-pati-maori/R66UWXLNGRCXPGDKDTVE2HRQII/
Bomber makes a couple of useful points:
The Curia poll is:
Lab 31.1 Gr 8.9 TPM 5.0 equals 45.0
Nats 33.3 ACT 13.2 equals 46.5
On this basis I think the seats would fall 61/59 but it is very close. Interestingly the Right was 5.5% ahead in Curia in January…now 1.5%.Maybe the Mills poll is a rogue.
I love this from Trevett:
"If the poll result were delivered on election night and National stuck to its pledge not to govern with Te Pāti Māori, it would result in a hung Parliament"
The Nats can pledge what they want-TPM have made it clear they will not work with Seymour and (while I don't think they have specifically ruled out the Nats?) I doubt if they would work with Luxon.
You're right to point to the close balance – seems to be within the margin of error. But the key point is that TPM are hovering on the threshold, indicating a significant sudden shift in Maori political allegiance. Confirmed by 3 polls now.
Dennis-Agree that TPM starting to look at 5 or 6% is an important shift.
However, my understanding is that they are just about certain to win a couple of seats so the 5% threshold is irrelevant in their case.
Yeah true. I'm just seeing that threshold effect as a signal of a huge undercurrent suddenly happening. As I mentioned (yesterday or this morning, I forget), we could see a Maori Labour revolt. The poll shift may be a precursor to that. Like what happened with Tau Henare & co a quarter century back, when they all went to NZF…
Agree totally-will be fascinating.
You never know we might end up with TPM 7% Greens 12% (stealing WT vote from Labour) and Labour 29%. Total 48%-enough to govern.
Faaaaark how many more weeks of the poll game do we have left?????
Here's Grant spilling the insider beans…
So the PM decided the thing wasn't worth a mandate. He's gambling his political career on neoliberalism. If a poll from the main msm channels brings Labour in below 30%, it'll look like a loser's gamble. Angry Andy bailed out when the polls did that to him.
Let them eat crumbs!!
Not clear your working definition of neoliberalism necessarily makes sense. I usually define it as politicians following along too closely with neo-classical (mainstream) economic ideas. This fits quite well with the range of even left wing economists (Paul Krugman, Larry Summers) who championed globalisation while being clearly partisan democratic.
Anyway, one of the key ideas going in mainstream economic thought is that its the govt deficit which is driving economic issues presently. This is also one of the key goals of certain tax reforms to minimize govt deficits. I think if we are to judge this neoliberal we need to see what kind of spending is being described here along with any tax changes.
I dismissed thinking of Robertson as particularly neo-liberal after he overruled treasury and removed interest deductions from rental investments. I think that also worked to cool the housing market.
Any divergence from the standard ideologue neolib in the direction of pragmatic adaption to circumstance is good, I agree. Fair enough to cede that point in Labour's favour but many won't see it my way, so I wouldn't discount a revulsion effect.
The strategy of driving Labour supporters to Greens (and campaigning in the centre) might be one to prevent a NACT coalition from being able to form a government.
If Labour and National both fall to 30% with a transfer to Greens and NZF (National Party supporters and others who do not want National to be beholden to ACT in coalition).
National and Labour 30%
ACT and Greens 10%
NZF (would only support a National led government) and TPM 5%
TOP 3% (need to win a seat)
wasted vote 4%
3% who decide the election, or who do not vote.
Remembering how National avoided coalitions 2008-2017 and had a range of support partners and how NZF would not provide c and s to NACT, the most likely scenario on the right is a National minority supported by both ACT and NZF.
But the possibility of an alternative to ACT being Greens would reduce their leverage on National still further.
(the idea of NZF and Greens being the support partners for National 2023-2026 might amuse BE)
And on the left, a Labour minority supported on c and s by Greens and TPM.
However, so far we have not seen the Greens picking up disaffected Labour vote (or, if they are, they are losing votes to TPM and/or TOP in equal amounts).
[NB: I don't believe the weirdly low TOP figure in the latest Curia poll – I think it's an outlier]
ACT seem to be consistently polling around 3% higher than the Greens – over the last few months. Which seems to me to reflect that there is not an even more right-wing party than ACT, but there is a perception that either/or TOP or TPM are more left-wing than the GP. [using left and right in a broad-brush sense here]
I don't realistically see NZF as making a come-back (though with Winston, you never know – if anyone could pull off a Lazarus, it would be him).
Your scenario of centrists voting left because they are scared by ACT, holds equally for centrists voting right because they are scared by TPM, TOP and GP.
I think this is just too close to call – as every poll for the last year has been.
It's going to be a very tight election.
In 2019 centrists went from National to Labour to block a Labour-Green coalition.
This time they would go from National to NZF (and some from Labour also, if they had no chance of winning) to block a NACT government.
With Labour driving some towards Greens they just might get enough seats to provide National with some leverage against ACT in negotiations.
Do your mean 2020? If so, that was really more an endorsement of Ardern over Covid than tactical voting to block the Greens.
Equally, centrists might desert Labour in order to prevent a strong TPM/Green (possibly TOP) tail wagging the Labour dog.
I really don't think that many of them would trust Peters. He made it very clear in 2017 that the person who came first was Peters.
And, I think you'd be seriously underestimating Seymour. If he's getting 13%+ for ACT, he's not going to be undercut by Peters at 5%.
In order for Peters to have any leverage – he'd have to be prepared to negotiate with Labour (while he's ruled it out, I wouldn't put it past him to weasel a way through).
And, I can't realistically see either the GP or TPM being prepared to play second fiddle (again) to Peters – bad enough to have policies watered down by Labour, but have them further emasculated by NZF would be a bridge too far.
You could end up with a minority government, with cross-bench support – on a case by case basis. Which would be a nightmare for actually getting legislation enacted – but has worked overseas.
Yes 2020. After 2019, Labour support grew and National voters realised they could not win, so voted tactically.
GAME STRATEGY (if the right win)
Peters will offer support to National as he has said, but not for a NACT coalition.
That either means a National minority government backed by ACT and NZF, or a NACT coalition that has no majority on c and s.
And there is nothing Seymour can do about it. That will be debilitating. And something some in National would vote for.
The outcome is WP then allowing a National government backed by ACT as support partner and NZF providing confidence and supply (having prevented a NACT government) and able to block some legislation.
First movers will be Maori, my hunch says. However I have no inside knowledge of Labour or Maori politics. Just that I haven't forgotten that Labour forced Mat Rata out (they'd deny that of course) and guess who joined him in the Alliance? Willie.
Now that TMP are significant players in this game, will they poll even higher during the campaign? Willie's mate JT may orchestrate a deal. Depends how alienated the Labour Maori cabal were by Labour's failure to openly support co-governance.
Expect a low turnout…which usually favours the right
A TDB commentator pointed to that for a different reason:
Rinsed = booted, I presume. Someone better give Hipkins a magic wand. Campaigning on neoliberalism against National doing the same, he'll need it.
random person on the internet says the left will lose the election. This is propaganda gearing up.
Like Pat, he cited a line of logic for his view, so it's more than subjectivity. It suggested a body of opinion in support of those lines of logic
random logic. The last election was an anomaly because of the pandemic. Anyone not understanding that in their logic, is missing a major piece of the puzzle. I have no idea who they are but it sounds like RW talking points memo stuff. Not that lefties don't do that as well (looking at Bomber in particular).
Agreed. It's saddening.
It's pretty solid rebuke of the idea "give them something to vote for", it's more "you will own nothing and you will be happy".
They would rather risk losing power than meaningfully altering the status quo.
That is the problem I'm hearing….no one to vote for, and voting against something dosnt have the same drive.
A race to diminish expectations is most certainly going to result in diminished participation, however there are no consequences but some tutting and fretting about turnout afterwards.
What's saddening is the seeming misunderstanding of the potential MMP allows; 'Major' parties become 'minor' parties and vice versa. The political status quo is a choice; Every* party vote counts.
I'm definitely seeing this from some voters.
Don't trust Hipkins/Labour; Don't like Luxon/National; Don't want any of the 'radical' parties.
Just won't vote….
Im noting similar….and the polls dont count the 'not intending'.
Turnout the last 4 elections has been…
2011, 74.21%
2014, 77.9%
2017, 79.8%
2020, 82.24%
Thats a lot of non voters and I suspect the turnout this time will be closer to 2011 than 2020
News hub article about Grant talking about budget 2023 tax policies Hipkins ruled out:
"They showed the Government considered a tax-switch, which would have included a $10,000 tax-free threshold and other smaller changes paid for by a 1.5 percent tax on net wealth over $5 million. The tax wouldn't have applied to some personal assets, like the family home, and would have only captured about 46,000 New Zealanders."
I'm actually starting to hate Hipkins, the man has zero charisma and zero political instinct other than "no"
This would have been major for Labour, a major jumpstart and would have put action to Hipkins "bread and butter" politics.
If the Labour are able to lead a third term government, it'll be inspite of Hipkins, not because of him.
[link required]
does anyone have a link to video of James Shaw today saying the Greens can still choose the cross benched?
Also the one where Hipkins says no to a wealth tax?
James Shaw about 1.30
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/07/12/end-of-story-hipkins-rules-out-wealth-and-capital-gains-taxes/
Haven't yet found a clip of Hipkins – did he just issue a press release?
“Chris Hipkins has ruled out introducing a wealth tax or capital gains tax if Labour is re-elected in October.
“I’m confirming today that under a government I lead there will be no wealth or capital gains tax after the election. End of story,” Hipkins said in a statement.”
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/493596/hipkins-rules-out-capital-gains-tax-wealth-tax-if-labour-re-elected
All the interviews seem to be with Grant Robertson.
ta.
there's a bit more of Shaw here https://twitter.com/wekatweets/status/1679040490413649921
I guess the Minister of Finance would have done a stand up with the PM if they were both here.
it's so annoying that we rely on the MSM to see their version of what happens at stand ups. The public should have access to the whole video and audio.
Ukraine acknowledges the death of the commander of a Russian submarine said to have launched missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Apparently they have no idea who did it but they do know the type of firearm used, the weather in the park at the time and are confident there were no witnesses.
https://t.me/DIUkraine/2568
google translate
Sweet, now this type of action I support.
Lets snuff all the leaders, and get this shit over with.
We have bigger problems, like adapting to a warmer environment.
As for get some snuff.
NATO informs Ukraine it cannot join until the war is over – via a peace with Russia. Tomorrow a message to Kiev, any peace treaty will include the term never to join NATO. When the light dawns … a message back to the bunker, so the terms of the treaty would be that Russia military leaves Crimea and the Donbass and Ukraine does not join NATO.
This should never have started, but they need a path out of where they are.
Undone by his own social media use.
@Milton_Keynes1
Stanislav Rzhitsky, who also commanded a Black Sea Fleet submarine, was shot four times while jogging on the morning of July 10 and died at the scene. The moroon used to share his paths on an app for runners, receiving a like even by Kyrylo Budanov.
https://twitter.com/Milton_Keynes1/status/1678640389488537601
The corporations should not own media.
I give you Ben, from Ben and Jerry's ice cream
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ben-jerrys-founder-questioned-police-doj-protest
Ben arrested for supporting a free press.
Now from the same Murdoch stable
https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/outsiders/ben-and-jerrys-activism-backfires-after-indigenous-tribe-ask-for-their-land-back/video/65d8fda586631d624dcc8dcb8ef932a0
Piece on woke getting it in the neck
These corporations don't give a rats ass. Look at the granny and TV3 here, hard too see them any different than the Murdoch rags and goggle spoof.