Daily review 12/07/2023

40 comments on “Daily review 12/07/2023 ”

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1. Dennis Frank 1

   12 July 2023 at 5:47 pm

   A new Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll has delivered another drop for Labour and also for National… The poll released today has Te Pāti Māori at 5 per cent (up 1.5 points) for the first time in the poll’s history. It follows a similarly strong result of 4 per cent for the party in the Talbot Mills poll.

   However, the news was not good for either Labour or National: National was still ahead of Labour but had dropped to 33 per cent – down three points since the last poll in June. Labour had dropped two to 31 per cent and Prime Minister Chris Hipkins took a big hit as preferred Prime Minister, dropping from 29 per cent to 23 per cent. He is now only just ahead of National leader Christopher Luxon on 20 per cent, who also dropped by three points.

   The Act Party was holding firm at 13 per cent and the Green Party had dropped one to 9 per cent. NZ First was on 3.3 per cent – up 1.7.

   If the poll result were delivered on election night and National stuck to its pledge not to govern with Te Pāti Māori, it would result in a hung Parliament: the Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori grouping would have 60 seats, and National and Act would have 60. The poll of 1000 eligible voters was taken from July 2-10 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.

   The poll also showed a record low for those who believed the country was heading in the wrong direction: 22.1 per cent (-2.7 points on last month) of New Zealanders thought the country was heading in the right direction, while 64.5 per cent (+7.1 points) thought it was heading in the wrong direction. The polling commentary said that was a new record low for the net country direction of -42.4 per cent (-9.8 points).

   If you're thinking Claire Trevett got the first statement in her final paragraph wrong, you're quite right about that!

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-taxpayers-union-curia-poll-delivers-more-bad-news-to-labours-chris-hipkins-and-nationals-chris-luxon-but-a-boost-for-te-pati-maori/R66UWXLNGRCXPGDKDTVE2HRQII/
   • Dennis Frank 1.1

     12 July 2023 at 5:50 pm

     Bomber makes a couple of useful points:

     As TDB has pointed out all year, this election will be decided by who scares NZ most, a Labour/Green/Maori Party or an ACT/National Government.

     What must shock the right wing strategists is that a a staggering 64.5% (+7.1) say the country is going in the wrong direction and yet ACT and National still can’t get a majority!

     https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/07/12/boom-new-poll-hung-parliament/
   • Bearded Git 1.2

     12 July 2023 at 5:57 pm

     The Curia poll is:

     Lab 31.1 Gr 8.9 TPM 5.0 equals 45.0

     Nats 33.3 ACT 13.2 equals 46.5

     On this basis I think the seats would fall 61/59 but it is very close. Interestingly the Right was 5.5% ahead in Curia in January…now 1.5%.Maybe the Mills poll is a rogue.

     I love this from Trevett:

     "If the poll result were delivered on election night and National stuck to its pledge not to govern with Te Pāti Māori, it would result in a hung Parliament"

     The Nats can pledge what they want-TPM have made it clear they will not work with Seymour and (while I don't think they have specifically ruled out the Nats?) I doubt if they would work with Luxon.
     • Dennis Frank 1.2.1

       12 July 2023 at 6:04 pm

       You're right to point to the close balance – seems to be within the margin of error. But the key point is that TPM are hovering on the threshold, indicating a significant sudden shift in Maori political allegiance. Confirmed by 3 polls now.
       • Bearded Git 1.2.1.1

         12 July 2023 at 6:20 pm

         Dennis-Agree that TPM starting to look at 5 or 6% is an important shift.

         However, my understanding is that they are just about certain to win a couple of seats so the 5% threshold is irrelevant in their case.
         • Dennis Frank 1.2.1.1.1

           12 July 2023 at 6:30 pm

           Yeah true. I'm just seeing that threshold effect as a signal of a huge undercurrent suddenly happening. As I mentioned (yesterday or this morning, I forget), we could see a Maori Labour revolt. The poll shift may be a precursor to that. Like what happened with Tau Henare & co a quarter century back, when they all went to NZF…
           • Bearded Git 1.2.1.1.1.1

             12 July 2023 at 6:37 pm

             Agree totally-will be fascinating.

             You never know we might end up with TPM 7% Greens 12% (stealing WT vote from Labour) and Labour 29%. Total 48%-enough to govern.
   • bwaghorn 1.3

     12 July 2023 at 8:29 pm

     Faaaaark how many more weeks of the poll game do we have left?????
2. Dennis Frank 2

   12 July 2023 at 5:55 pm

   Here's Grant spilling the insider beans…

   Fronting media on Wednesday afternoon, Robertson said he wouldn't say he was gutted by Hipkins' decision to kill off the tax-switch. "What I would say is it's an idea that clearly I think had some merit. I wouldn't have put so much work into it if I didn't think that it had merit," he said.

   "But I also am a team player and I'm also somebody who's very conscious of the economic conditions that we're in." He said it was his job to look at all options and the wealth tax aspect wouldn't have come into effect until after the election, allowing Labour to campaign on it and gain a mandate.

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/07/election-2023-grant-robertson-says-government-s-torched-tax-switch-idea-had-merit-but-he-s-team-player-still-believes-in-labour.html

   So the PM decided the thing wasn't worth a mandate. He's gambling his political career on neoliberalism. If a poll from the main msm channels brings Labour in below 30%, it'll look like a loser's gamble. Angry Andy bailed out when the polls did that to him.
   • Dennis Frank 2.1

     12 July 2023 at 6:00 pm

     Asked what was the point of the Labour Party if it didn't do what it believed in, Robertson listed a number of areas where he believes the Government's made a difference, like "building state homes" and "improving the schools that our kids learn in".

     Let them eat crumbs!!
   • Nic the NZer 2.2

     12 July 2023 at 6:38 pm

     Not clear your working definition of neoliberalism necessarily makes sense. I usually define it as politicians following along too closely with neo-classical (mainstream) economic ideas. This fits quite well with the range of even left wing economists (Paul Krugman, Larry Summers) who championed globalisation while being clearly partisan democratic.

     Anyway, one of the key ideas going in mainstream economic thought is that its the govt deficit which is driving economic issues presently. This is also one of the key goals of certain tax reforms to minimize govt deficits. I think if we are to judge this neoliberal we need to see what kind of spending is being described here along with any tax changes.

     I dismissed thinking of Robertson as particularly neo-liberal after he overruled treasury and removed interest deductions from rental investments. I think that also worked to cool the housing market.
     • Dennis Frank 2.2.1

       12 July 2023 at 7:15 pm

       Any divergence from the standard ideologue neolib in the direction of pragmatic adaption to circumstance is good, I agree. Fair enough to cede that point in Labour's favour but many won't see it my way, so I wouldn't discount a revulsion effect.
   • SPC 2.3

     12 July 2023 at 6:38 pm

     The strategy of driving Labour supporters to Greens (and campaigning in the centre) might be one to prevent a NACT coalition from being able to form a government.

     If Labour and National both fall to 30% with a transfer to Greens and NZF (National Party supporters and others who do not want National to be beholden to ACT in coalition).

     National and Labour 30%

     ACT and Greens 10%

     NZF (would only support a National led government) and TPM 5%

     TOP 3% (need to win a seat)

     wasted vote 4%

     3% who decide the election, or who do not vote.

     Remembering how National avoided coalitions 2008-2017 and had a range of support partners and how NZF would not provide c and s to NACT, the most likely scenario on the right is a National minority supported by both ACT and NZF.

     But the possibility of an alternative to ACT being Greens would reduce their leverage on National still further.

     (the idea of NZF and Greens being the support partners for National 2023-2026 might amuse BE)

     And on the left, a Labour minority supported on c and s by Greens and TPM.
     • Belladonna 2.3.1

       12 July 2023 at 7:22 pm

       However, so far we have not seen the Greens picking up disaffected Labour vote (or, if they are, they are losing votes to TPM and/or TOP in equal amounts).

       [NB: I don't believe the weirdly low TOP figure in the latest Curia poll – I think it's an outlier]

       ACT seem to be consistently polling around 3% higher than the Greens – over the last few months. Which seems to me to reflect that there is not an even more right-wing party than ACT, but there is a perception that either/or TOP or TPM are more left-wing than the GP. [using left and right in a broad-brush sense here]

       I don't realistically see NZF as making a come-back (though with Winston, you never know – if anyone could pull off a Lazarus, it would be him).

       Your scenario of centrists voting left because they are scared by ACT, holds equally for centrists voting right because they are scared by TPM, TOP and GP.

       I think this is just too close to call – as every poll for the last year has been.

       It's going to be a very tight election.
       • SPC 2.3.1.1

         12 July 2023 at 7:49 pm

         In 2019 centrists went from National to Labour to block a Labour-Green coalition.

         This time they would go from National to NZF (and some from Labour also, if they had no chance of winning) to block a NACT government.

         With Labour driving some towards Greens they just might get enough seats to provide National with some leverage against ACT in negotiations.
         • Belladonna 2.3.1.1.1

           12 July 2023 at 8:02 pm

           Do your mean 2020? If so, that was really more an endorsement of Ardern over Covid than tactical voting to block the Greens.

           Equally, centrists might desert Labour in order to prevent a strong TPM/Green (possibly TOP) tail wagging the Labour dog.

           I really don't think that many of them would trust Peters. He made it very clear in 2017 that the person who came first was Peters.

           And, I think you'd be seriously underestimating Seymour. If he's getting 13%+ for ACT, he's not going to be undercut by Peters at 5%.

           In order for Peters to have any leverage – he'd have to be prepared to negotiate with Labour (while he's ruled it out, I wouldn't put it past him to weasel a way through).

           And, I can't realistically see either the GP or TPM being prepared to play second fiddle (again) to Peters – bad enough to have policies watered down by Labour, but have them further emasculated by NZF would be a bridge too far.

           You could end up with a minority government, with cross-bench support – on a case by case basis. Which would be a nightmare for actually getting legislation enacted – but has worked overseas.
           • SPC 2.3.1.1.1.1

             12 July 2023 at 8:19 pm

             Yes 2020. After 2019, Labour support grew and National voters realised they could not win, so voted tactically.

             GAME STRATEGY (if the right win)

             Peters will offer support to National as he has said, but not for a NACT coalition.

             That either means a National minority government backed by ACT and NZF, or a NACT coalition that has no majority on c and s.

             And there is nothing Seymour can do about it. That will be debilitating. And something some in National would vote for.

             The outcome is WP then allowing a National government backed by ACT as support partner and NZF providing confidence and supply (having prevented a NACT government) and able to block some legislation.
     • Dennis Frank 2.3.2

       12 July 2023 at 7:23 pm

       First movers will be Maori, my hunch says. However I have no inside knowledge of Labour or Maori politics. Just that I haven't forgotten that Labour forced Mat Rata out (they'd deny that of course) and guess who joined him in the Alliance? Willie.

       Now that TMP are significant players in this game, will they poll even higher during the campaign? Willie's mate JT may orchestrate a deal. Depends how alienated the Labour Maori cabal were by Labour's failure to openly support co-governance.
3. pat 3

   12 July 2023 at 6:13 pm

   Expect a low turnout…which usually favours the right
   • Dennis Frank 3.1

     12 July 2023 at 6:24 pm

     A TDB commentator pointed to that for a different reason:

     Vast majority saying the country is going in the wrong direction. It was a 50/50 at the last election. This government will get rinsed at the election and the pollsters wont see it coming.

     Rinsed = booted, I presume. Someone better give Hipkins a magic wand. Campaigning on neoliberalism against National doing the same, he'll need it.
     • weka 3.1.1

       12 July 2023 at 7:01 pm

       random person on the internet says the left will lose the election. This is propaganda gearing up.
       • Dennis Frank 3.1.1.1

         12 July 2023 at 7:11 pm

         Like Pat, he cited a line of logic for his view, so it's more than subjectivity. It suggested a body of opinion in support of those lines of logic
         • weka 3.1.1.1.1

           12 July 2023 at 7:19 pm

           random logic. The last election was an anomaly because of the pandemic. Anyone not understanding that in their logic, is missing a major piece of the puzzle. I have no idea who they are but it sounds like RW talking points memo stuff. Not that lefties don't do that as well (looking at Bomber in particular).
   • arkie 3.2

     12 July 2023 at 7:59 pm

     Agreed. It's saddening.

     It's pretty solid rebuke of the idea "give them something to vote for", it's more "you will own nothing and you will be happy".

     They would rather risk losing power than meaningfully altering the status quo.
     • pat 3.2.1

       12 July 2023 at 8:28 pm

       That is the problem I'm hearing….no one to vote for, and voting against something dosnt have the same drive.
       • arkie 3.2.1.1

         12 July 2023 at 8:42 pm

         A race to diminish expectations is most certainly going to result in diminished participation, however there are no consequences but some tutting and fretting about turnout afterwards.

         What's saddening is the seeming misunderstanding of the potential MMP allows; 'Major' parties become 'minor' parties and vice versa. The political status quo is a choice; Every* party vote counts.
   • Belladonna 3.3

     12 July 2023 at 8:05 pm

     I'm definitely seeing this from some voters.
     Don't trust Hipkins/Labour; Don't like Luxon/National; Don't want any of the 'radical' parties.
     Just won't vote….
     • pat 3.3.1

       12 July 2023 at 8:25 pm

       Im noting similar….and the polls dont count the 'not intending'.

       Turnout the last 4 elections has been…

       2011, 74.21%

       2014, 77.9%

       2017, 79.8%

       2020, 82.24%

       Thats a lot of non voters and I suspect the turnout this time will be closer to 2011 than 2020
4. Corey 4

   12 July 2023 at 6:59 pm

   News hub article about Grant talking about budget 2023 tax policies Hipkins ruled out:

   "They showed the Government considered a tax-switch, which would have included a $10,000 tax-free threshold and other smaller changes paid for by a 1.5 percent tax on net wealth over $5 million. The tax wouldn't have applied to some personal assets, like the family home, and would have only captured about 46,000 New Zealanders."

   I'm actually starting to hate Hipkins, the man has zero charisma and zero political instinct other than "no"

   This would have been major for Labour, a major jumpstart and would have put action to Hipkins "bread and butter" politics.

   If the Labour are able to lead a third term government, it'll be inspite of Hipkins, not because of him.
   • Incognito 4.1

     12 July 2023 at 11:02 pm

     [link required]
5. weka 5

   12 July 2023 at 7:05 pm

   does anyone have a link to video of James Shaw today saying the Greens can still choose the cross benched?

   Also the one where Hipkins says no to a wealth tax?
   • Belladonna 5.1

     12 July 2023 at 7:31 pm

     James Shaw about 1.30

     https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/07/12/end-of-story-hipkins-rules-out-wealth-and-capital-gains-taxes/

     Haven't yet found a clip of Hipkins – did he just issue a press release?
     “Chris Hipkins has ruled out introducing a wealth tax or capital gains tax if Labour is re-elected in October.

     “I’m confirming today that under a government I lead there will be no wealth or capital gains tax after the election. End of story,” Hipkins said in a statement.”

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/493596/hipkins-rules-out-capital-gains-tax-wealth-tax-if-labour-re-elected
     All the interviews seem to be with Grant Robertson.
     • weka 5.1.1

       12 July 2023 at 8:18 pm

       ta.

       there's a bit more of Shaw here https://twitter.com/wekatweets/status/1679040490413649921
     • SPC 5.1.2

       12 July 2023 at 8:25 pm

       I guess the Minister of Finance would have done a stand up with the PM if they were both here.
       • weka 5.1.2.1

         15 July 2023 at 2:28 pm

         it's so annoying that we rely on the MSM to see their version of what happens at stand ups. The public should have access to the whole video and audio.
6. joe90 6

   12 July 2023 at 7:19 pm

   Ukraine acknowledges the death of the commander of a Russian submarine said to have launched missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Apparently they have no idea who did it but they do know the type of firearm used, the weather in the park at the time and are confident there were no witnesses.

   https://t.me/DIUkraine/2568

   google translate
   • adam 6.1

     12 July 2023 at 7:42 pm

     Sweet, now this type of action I support.

     Lets snuff all the leaders, and get this shit over with.

     We have bigger problems, like adapting to a warmer environment.
     • SPC 6.1.1

       12 July 2023 at 8:00 pm

       As for get some snuff.

       NATO informs Ukraine it cannot join until the war is over – via a peace with Russia. Tomorrow a message to Kiev, any peace treaty will include the term never to join NATO. When the light dawns … a message back to the bunker, so the terms of the treaty would be that Russia military leaves Crimea and the Donbass and Ukraine does not join NATO.

       This should never have started, but they need a path out of where they are.
   • joe90 6.2

     12 July 2023 at 9:19 pm

     Undone by his own social media use.

     @Milton_Keynes1

     Stanislav Rzhitsky, who also commanded a Black Sea Fleet submarine, was shot four times while jogging on the morning of July 10 and died at the scene. The moroon used to share his paths on an app for runners, receiving a like even by Kyrylo Budanov.

     

     https://twitter.com/Milton_Keynes1/status/1678640389488537601
7. adam 7

   12 July 2023 at 7:39 pm

   The corporations should not own media.

   I give you Ben, from Ben and Jerry's ice cream

   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ben-jerrys-founder-questioned-police-doj-protest

   Ben arrested for supporting a free press.

   Now from the same Murdoch stable

   https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/outsiders/ben-and-jerrys-activism-backfires-after-indigenous-tribe-ask-for-their-land-back/video/65d8fda586631d624dcc8dcb8ef932a0

   Piece on woke getting it in the neck

   These corporations don't give a rats ass. Look at the granny and TV3 here, hard too see them any different than the Murdoch rags and goggle spoof.

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