Herald Digipoll

Written By: - Date published: 3:21 pm, October 30th, 2007 - 15 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

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Today’s Herald Digipoll is not good news for Labour, coming off the back of last week’s positive Roy Morgan poll which showed a centre-left majority. As the Herald notes, on the basis of this poll National has enough support to govern alone.

But what it also demonstrates is the mistake National has made in devouring its potential coalition partners (ACT and UF score a pitiful 0.2% each). MMP doesn’t look too fondly on parties gaining a majority by themselves, and as the election nears and National’s vote inevitably drops down to the mid-40s the numbers game will start to look very different.

Labour’s vote has actually held up pretty well, and at just 0.8% less than the last Digipoll it’s well within the margin of error. Still, they’d be feeling a lot more comfortable in the early-40s, especially with the Greens a little closer to the 5% mark than they’d like.

In a strange twist that would appear to cast some doubt on the poll’s accuracy, Helen Clark has increased her lead over John Key in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, leading him 50.8% to 37.3%. This is odd because preferred PM generally tracks pretty well with the party’s fortunes.

Also of interest is the projected size of the Parliament, with ACT, United Future and Progressive’s low polling adding to the Maori Party’s usual overhang to stretch the house to 125 seats.

Overall, it’s 65 seats to the centre-right (Nat, ACT, UF) and 60 to the centre-left (Lab, Grn, Prog, Maori). Even on a bad day, there’s still not much in it.

15 comments on “Herald Digipoll ”

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  1. Sam Dixon 1
    30 October 2007 at 4:17 pm

    Glad youse didn’t ignore this poll just because its not great news. It must be tempting just to be the sunshione gang for the left like Farrar is for the right but that’s the way of a hollow man.

    Strange poll though. We’re going to have to wait for more polls but the trend had been National down, Labour up – even Colmar Brunton was showing National peaking in May-July and slipping

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4232/
    http://colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php?pageLoad=18
    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/graph.jpg (DPF’s summary of polls with an orange – Labour Greens line added)

    – and there was no major events to move that number of people to National, plus you have this strange result with Clark up, Key down and their parties going opposite… its wait and see time I guess.

  2. Daveo 2
    30 October 2007 at 4:31 pm

    The graph really does show how close it is in a way you’d never get from the media’s FPP-style coverage.

    It really does show how high National’s vote has to be to win government – I’d say 47% plus to be in with a chance. And as you say, that’s just not very likely.

  3. LFC 3
    30 October 2007 at 4:35 pm

    Poll after poll shows the right has a small base that’s augmented with swing votes. I suspect this is a bit of a rogue one but even here we see that Labour’s solid base is the largest. I’d be interested to see a poll that was based on policy rather than party but I guess when one of the two major parties doesn’t have any policy that might be a bit one sided.

  4. illuminatedtiger 4
    30 October 2007 at 5:20 pm

    Even if National do get in their tenure will be limited. New Zealanders hate privatization.

    refuses vietnamese

  5. milo 5
    30 October 2007 at 5:39 pm

    I haven’t been by all that much, but I am pleased to see this post. It’s really hard starting up a new blog, and I reckon there are several development phases. For The Standard they would seem to be:

    1 The John Key attack site.
    2 The John Key attack site with a few other posts.
    3 Labour supporting blog with some attacks and interesting links.
    4 The left wing site that can acknowledge bad news.
    5 The left wing site that can criticse it’s parliamentary wing.
    6 The left wing site that can laugh at itself from time to time.
    7 The left wing site that provides a forum to improve policy.

    So you are up to (4), by my ‘ladder’. That’s pretty quick progress. Especially as it takes time to find a voice. Good job.

    But you really need to get a verification test that doesn’t look like a google ad.

  6. Tane 6
    30 October 2007 at 5:43 pm

    Milo, off the top of my head, here’s your 5 – http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=520

    And your 6 – http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=252

    And I’m sure there’s a 7 or two in there somewhere, but hey it’s after 5 o’clock and I’d rather be drinking beer.

  7. milo 7
    30 October 2007 at 6:25 pm

    Enjoy your beer. Cheers.

  8. r0b 8
    30 October 2007 at 6:51 pm

    Milo, you are wise and full of chocolatey goodness! The Standard can set the standard for constructive online debate. Onwards!

  9. Trent 9
    30 October 2007 at 10:58 pm

    I quite like that poll, it suggestes that NZ is over socialism.

  10. all_your_base 10
    30 October 2007 at 11:44 pm

    Hey milo, verification test that doesn’t look like a Google ad? Do you mean the captcha? It helps computers read books. When the robots take over I’d suggest it would be in your best interests to have contributed just a little. Don’t say we didn’t warn you…

  11. ak 11
    31 October 2007 at 8:51 am

    I quite like Key’s flip-flops, it suggestes that National now embraces socialism.

    I quite like the result of the last 3 elections, it suggestes that NZ likes socialism.

    I quite like the fact that tories now accept all the policies they used to bemoan, it suggestes they are nothing more than fearmongering handbrakes on history.

    I quite like Trent’s comments, it suggestes that tory apologists are moronic prats.

  12. Billy 12
    31 October 2007 at 9:23 am

    Time to acknowledge that Key has not lost his Mojo?

  13. Robert Owen 13
    31 October 2007 at 9:24 am

    This Poll Hmmm
    I think the most important fact in analyzing all polls for a number of years is The “Hard” vote fot the left Green Labour is 45%.

    Though nothing is guaranteed, a base of 45% is a very good start for any election.

    The National/Act Party on the other hand, would have a max of 40%
    That leaves 15 %
    Take off 5% core support for the other parties M/NZF/UF

    We are left with 10 % up for grabs

    So It all comes down to convicing 40% of those = 4% to vote left
    Which is approx 100 000 votes.

    It would also be a huge advantage to lift the turnout amongst the young adult/youth constituency

    If the left work hard at the next campaign I can’t see it losing

  14. rod 14
    31 October 2007 at 4:23 pm

    I think it should be renamed Herald Dodgypoll.

  15. Trent 15
    31 October 2007 at 9:40 pm

    No ak, it suggests that my theory that socialists have had their day, is correct. Only brain damage gives reasonable cause for voting for more of the same.