Herald Digipoll

Written By: - Date published: 10:44 am, March 29th, 2008 - 56 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags: ,

herald 450

The New Zealand Herald reports that Labour has almost halved National’s lead in its latest DigiPoll survey, following a month “memorable for slip-ups and lacklustre performances by leader John Key.”

Labour’s managed to claw its way up towards the 40% mark and that’s good news for the Left, which is now back within striking distance of forming a government.

There is however real cause for concern in the Greens remaining below the 5% threshold. This should be their election, and results like this suggest they need to do some serious work on their messaging.

56 comments on “Herald Digipoll”

  1. higherstandard 1

    Damn left wing publication it’s lies all lies I tell you.

    On a more serious note I expect the greens will get over 5%, The Moari party to pick up all or all but one of the electorate seats and Winston to pull something out of the bag at the last minute.

    I expect National and Labour to get closer leading into the elction but would still put money on a slim majority centre right government post election – how post election will depend on the length and amount of horsetrading with Dunne, Maori party and I expect Winston

  2. Tamaki resident 2

    In case anyone is confused (as I was initially), National’s 49.9% equating to over 50% of the seats is because the Greens and NZ First votes are effectively lost votes (3.9 1.1 = 5%). This is because they don’t get over the 5% threshold or win an electorate seat.
    The maths is:
    100 – (3.9 1.1) = 95% of the vote counts
    .499 of 95 = 52.5% (National share of the vote that counts)
    52.5% of 120 = 63 seats

  3. STC 3

    If you look at the last election, Labour got 2 points more in the General Election and National six points less than the last poll before Sept. 17 suggested. If you take away the Herald polls’ bias, Labour is not doing too badly

    (and I don’t seriously believe the Greens are that low)

  4. Policy Parrot 4

    If accurate, this is not a good poll result for the centre-left. Whether Labour is cannibalising Green voters remains to be seen.

    Both the Greens and NZFirst will quite likely reach 5% (NZFirst less likely but that may not be even necessary with Tauranga). Both of these parties are more pro-Labour, whereas Peter Dunne/United Future is more pro-National.

  5. Ari 5

    Hasn’t there been multiple polls in the last few elections all suggesting the Greens will fall below the 5% threshhold? And yet it never happens… surprising 😉

    Part of this is probably due to the fact that the Greens do incredibly well on the special votes, and those people are unlikely to get polled.

    Hopefully this poll doesn’t wake National up to the terrible job it’s doing though 😉

  6. Tane 6

    If accurate, this is not a good poll result for the centre-left.

    I’d disagree. The Greens will pass 5%, and National’s vote can only go down from 50. With Labour at around 40% there’s a good platform there for the Left to form a government around.

  7. outofbed 7

    If the greens get over 5% on these figures its a L G M government
    http://www.elections.org.nz/calculator/

  8. RedLogix 8

    The problem for the Greens is simple.

    Auckland.

    In most other centers they poll 6-10%. In Auckland it’s under 2%, which pulls down the nett result.

    Aucklanders would by and large sooner die than use public transport. When they hear “climate change”, they decode it as “those mad greenie freaks want to take my beloved car off me”.

    It’s more or less that simple.

  9. Ari 9

    OOB: Yep, that said, if Green get about 5% and United/Act get about .5%, then Parliament is hung if neither the Greens nor the Maori Party support National, and UF and Act do… so it’s very close at the moment. 😀

    RedLogix: I’m not sure. The Green Party actually does incredibly well in urban centres and its usual issue is with rural votes. That said, I’d certainly agree that Auckland is likely to be its least favourable city.

  10. higherstandard 10

    OOB

    With such outstanding logic you should be in our next Minister of Finance.

  11. higherstandard 11

    Oops delete the in ….. didn’t mean to suggest anything just mistyped

    [lprent – thats ok. We all do it from time to time.]

  12. ak 12

    Yes the details are interesting – and encouraging.
    Labour ahead with the 18-24yr olds (faith restored in our education system) and over 70s (naturally, the wisest and most intelligent strata)
    Take out Auckland and the gap is only 4.6%
    Helen 7% ahead with women

    Seems the poor old 40s Auckland males are most susceptible to the tory social handbrake/tax-bribe spin.

    Come on jaffa boys – lose those irrational fears and start living. Trust me, you don’t want to go back to the 50s or 90s.

  13. mike 13

    Greens and Labour only take votes of each other so not too much concern for the centre right there and the Moari party like Key more than Clark.
    It will all come down to peoples wallets as the economy continues to tank. Who will cut taxes the most – its a no-brainer…

  14. The polling period for this poll was quite long (20 days) and the sample at the lower end of respectable. The colmar brunton that surveyed (as I recall) across the 6th of March to the 9th had a stronger right outcome. I’d be very interested to see how the results for the last week of polling for the Herald Digi compare to the results from the first week.

  15. mike 15

    Interesting stats too. Labour beat Nats in 2 age groups – the ones too young to know better and the ones who have lost there marbles 🙂 No surprises that National strongest supporters are the ones who pay the tax.

  16. gobsmacked 16

    The funniest result is ACT’s.

    The poll found no ACT supporters aged between 25 and 40. Not just a small number, but the smallest number. Less than one. Zero. As in, bugger all. After the blaze of publicity, the resurrection, the second coming … zero.

    Phone calls to that age group: hundreds. ACT supporters found: zero. As in, bugger all.

    Compare this poll result with a recent thread on Kiwiblog, where (no, I am not making this up) commenters claimed that evidence of strong support for Roger Douglas and ACT could be found in … the blog’s karma points. If you ever needed proof that Kiwiblog threads are a fantasy world, there you have it.

    But back in the real world: zero. As in, bugger all.

  17. Hillary 17

    Shows how fickle Youth are – join the Auckland Uni ACT branch to get the free party pills then won’t vote ACT!!! Maybe they were too hungover to answer the survey when they got rung up.

  18. Dan 18

    National has peaked too soon, and with Roger Douglas as an ally, the tax incentive shown up to be the lemon it is, no other policies of substance, Key shown up as somewhat flakey, it is all down-hill from here for the Nats. The Greens and Winston will come through, so I would agree a centre left coalition is likely.

  19. higherstandard 19

    Dan

    Unfortunately you’ve forgotten some notable other factors prior to the election, increased price rises in common goods, increased numbers of mortgages coming of fixed terms and exacerbating the pain in middle these will likely add to the voting public’s wish for a change.

    I think if you’re counting on the Maori party to prop up a minority centre left government you might be out of luck – I suspect they’ll stay out of a coalition either way and support right or left on confidence only

  20. Dan 20

    HS, the price of goods and the mortgage rise will continue regardless of who is in power. My worry is if Key’s appeal continues to drop and he trys to win with a mindlessly large tax cut, then the price rises under National would be even greater.
    I would agree about the Maori party: they will be more effective for their constituency by staying outside.

  21. outofbed 21

    HS Douglas Shafted quite a lot of people in the 90’s but I don’t feel the need to recipricate

  22. Matthew Pilott 22

    So – overhang of two seats looking likely? I’d say the Maori Party is well situated to win all of the Maori seats this time around, although it’s not certain. The Herald had this to say about it:

    The Maori Party party vote has picked up to the extent that it would be entitled to five MPs, adding a list MP to the four electorate members it has at present.

    Cap: shady $5,000 – might have ttalk to my mates at the Waitemata Trust… 😉

  23. outofbed 23

    The problem for the Greens is simple.”

    “Auckland. or to be precise …South Auckland

    Percentage Of Green Votes in The AKL electorates 2005
    Auckland Central 12.98
    Waitakere 5.92
    Te Atatu 3.42
    Mt Albert 9.27
    Mt Roskill 4.17
    Maungakielie 4.15
    Epsom 5.33
    Northcote 5.08
    Northshore 5.16
    Tamaki 3.87
    New Lyn 5.60
    Magere 1.75
    Manuku 1.77
    Manurewa 1.95
    Pakuranga 2.52
    Helensville 4.03
    East Coast Bays 3.49
    Rodney 4.34
    Clevedon 2.46
    Port Waikato 3.73

  24. RedLogix 24

    OOB,

    Thanks for that. My 2% figure fails to break AK into areas, but then again I sort of recall some polling in the last few months that indicated Green support in the whole of Ak to be significantly lower than all other urban NZ areas.

    But your breakdown is revealing. After all the difference between say 2% in Manakau, and 12% in AK Central is a 6:1 difference in actual numbers voting for you.

  25. pixie66 25

    I predict the Maori Party will win all 7 Maori seats. But, even if they pick up 5, that will still be way more electorate seats than their party vote is likely to entitle them to. So, given that a party vote for Maori will be perceived to be a wasted vote, expect their supporters to split their votes like last time. What the Maori Party want to avoid is being backed into a corner due to a clear mandate from their supporters in favour of Labour. A smart move would be for the party to encourage supporters to use their party vote to vote Green. That would not only increase the Green’s chances(with whom they share more than a few commonalities), but could also give them more room to negotiate post-election.

  26. outofbed 26

    Yes I agree A very smart for Maori voters to Party Vote Green the two parties have more in common then almost any other party

    More fascinating was the Maori Party voting pattern and comparisons with other parties. The library research concluded that in votes on bills in the current Parliament, the Maori Party voted 108 times the same as the Greens and 55 times differently; compared with Labour it voted 89 times the same as Labour and 80 times differently; and compared to National it voted 55 times the same and 112 times differently.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10472445&pnum=0

    The Greens are also, I think the only Party to have the have the treaty as part of their constitution

    3.1.5 To honour Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
    http://www.greens.org.nz/about/constitution.htm

  27. AncientGeek 27

    Personally I wouldn’t get too excited until you see a month of polls and get some kind of trend. In any case you cannot rely on the numbers. I’ve commented on this previously.

    Problem is that phone polls are becoming obsolete. It doesn’t matter how much the polling companies fudge the figures to balance demographics – they are picking up on the trailing edges of the voting public.

    There are too many people that only run on cell-phones or don’t have a line at all. There are also a lot that have unlisted phone numbers.

    Lack of cellphones numbers under-represents the younger generations – around my apartment block, the people who have landlines and are under 30 (yeah I’m ancient right) consist mainly of heavy net users. Most of those use CID to screen the landline.

    If you’re worried about phone bills (ie poor), then the best budgetary thing you can do is to get a prepaid phone. I believe that in south auckland the landlines are about 40%, while in north shore it is closer to 80%.

    Conversely in the higher income brackets – well I made my number unlisted a long time ago – bastards target us using the census data. I notice that my more affluent friends are similarly dropping off the whitepages. Reduces the incidence of bloody telemarketers down massively. Personally I’d recommend it to everyone – takes about 3-4 years for the data to fall off the systems. But after that you get blessed peace.

    You can physically see it in the auckland phone book. Just got the 2008 white pages – it is slightly thinner than the 2007, which was thinner than the 2006, …… It has been reducing in size for at least a decade now.

    Anyway phone polls are rubbish, they’re good at tracking the more conservative, less stressed, and techno-phobic in society. Thats a reducing proportion.

    captcha: upswing Avenue
    nope – the converse…

  28. Razorlight 28

    National’s support appears to be solid. A small drop but nothing to be overly concerned with.

    Labour’s support is heading back up to where it was in 1999, 2002 and 2005. There is nothing to suggest they will gain more support than they had in those three elections. Especially considering the state of middle New Zealand’s bank balances, I would suggest Labour can only hope to have the support they had in previous elections and not alot more.

    The left should be concerned. As the main stream parties adopt environmental policies that they luaghd at 15 years ago, they collectivley squeeze the greens. The green fight is winning and once it is won…..where do the Greens go.

  29. Dan 29

    I can’t help but see the environment policies of the Nats as wolves reluctantly donning a sheepskin to hide their real intentions. Their long running complaints concerning the resource management processes and environmental controls suggest we will need the Green party as NZ’s conscience for a while yet.

  30. Razorlight 30

    I think you are correct Dan but I would add both Labour and National are alot of talk and no substance. Our Record in the past 15 years is abysmal if you are a true greenie. But sometimes all you need is the rhetoric to get you through and that is why I think the Greens are in real trouble. Both parties are neutralising the green message by at the very least giving it lip service.

    On another point, March has been Nationals worst month since the last election. They will not be making those mistakes again. They should shread support now. If they don’t, then we can assume their support is fairly solid.

  31. outofbed 31

    I think Labour support will solidify at about 39 % there is no way the Green will get less then 5 that makes 44% with Jim and the overhang It is probably going to be LGM government which is going to be hard for a lot of people to take not least the National party which will split asunder, Which will be a shame buy Heh what can you do ?

  32. Razorlight 32

    Why is there no way the greens will slip below 5%. Labour has more or less adopted their environment policies. So their only point of difference is loony leftie economic policies.

    With Labour you get acceptable environmental policies with sound economic policy.

    The Greens are in real danger for the simple reason they have won the argument and their biggest selling point is now accepted by 90% of Parliament.

    I may be repeating myself but it is my beief that the greens are now going to be a victim of their own success

  33. the sprout 33

    this result just goes to show what happens when the media bother to shine a light on National – their support starts to crumble and voters remind themselves that experience and competence is better than no policies and a millionaire PM.

    the Greens will do well this election off the back of the disaffected liberal vote if nothing else. that, the increasingly obvious significance of ecological issues, and the fact that small parties’ polling always troughs between elections, will see them easily over the threshold.

  34. burt 34

    Poll results…yada yada

    How about some real discussion on how Labour (the workers party) treats workers.

    Junior doctors opting out

    But as first-year Waikato Hospital doctor Michael Oehley, 24, said in a letter to the NZ Herald last week, when he broke his $61,000 salary into 55-hour weeks, subtracted tax and student loan repayments, “I get about $12 an hour for treating sick people after six years of studying”.

    Yep, look what 9 years of Labour govt extracting extra tax to fix health and education have achieved ! Labour are lucky to even get 39.3% – clearly a lot of people take no notice of the complete shambles Labour have created in their quest for power at any price.

  35. burt 35

    I was talking to a guy last night who worked in communist Poland a few years back. He had a friend who was a surgeon who left Poland for the US after being completely fed up with only earning 10% more than the hospital cleaners. $12/hour after tax is probably only 10% more than the cleaners in NZ hospitals earn, might even be less than the cleaners team leader!

  36. burt 36

    Actually if the cleaners in NZ hospitals spent 6 years producing a family rather than studying to be a Dr they would be getting more per hour than the Dr once WFF benefits are taken into account.

    WTF is going on in this country? How can anybody who’s got even a slither of intelligence think things are heading in a good direction?

  37. outofbed 37

    If Junior doctors earned $60 dollars an Hour and the cleaners $58
    would you be happy ? I suspect not
    The Hospital cleaners play just an important part in Hospital as the Doctors so $12 an hour is depolarable

  38. higherstandard 38

    OOB

    The hospital cleaners do play an important part in any hospital, however to say it is just as important as the part played by doctors is patently absurd.

  39. r0b 39

    a slither of intelligence

    Tee hee! Were you thinking of Mr Key?

    Buddy Burt, don’t you have anything better to do on a Sunday morning than write comment after comment trying to think up reasons to bag NZ? It can’t be good for your liver Burt. Why not take a walk outside – get some fresh air? I’m off – byeee…

  40. burt 40

    outofbed

    The problem is more complex than comparing $60 to $58. The starting Dr’s salary as highlighted above ( $61,000 ) is the issue. It’s an issue effecting Labour’s polling as much as the cleaners earning a disgustingly low $12/hour is effecting Labour polling.

    The $12/hour is disgusting because it’s a pittance compared to the cost of living. The $61,000 is more interesting.

    To convince ourselves that Labour tax policy is good we need to believe $60,000 is a lot of money to earn in a year. (is it even 20% of what the PM earns???) If we believe this we have no issue with calling Dr’s earning $61K rich pricks and cleaners earning $12/hour poor. Thus we can feel comfortable offering generous welfare to the $12/hour earner. This welfare is extracted from the rich pricks like new Dr’s earning $61,000 a year.

    Such strong redistribution policies enable employers to continue paying $12/hour – IE: The cleaners keep turning up to earn their low wages which give them entitlement to good welfare.

    Why would a Dr stay employed in the NZ public health service when they are denigrated for earning 2-3 times what a cleaner earns. While being denigrated as rich they are paying excessive taxation to attempt to redistribute across such a narrow margin of ‘acceptable earning’. Then we wonder why wages are not rising as quickly as inflation… Doooh.

  41. burt 41

    Tane

    As you are a strongly union affiliated person I’d be interested to hear your opinion of Dr’s earning $61,000 a year working 55 hour weeks.

    Do you think we can compare the NZ and the Aussie public health services to Bunnings? Should we be protesting that a Labour govt in NZ pays so little to Dr’s compared to a Labor govt in Aussie?

  42. Draco TB 42

    The $12/hour is disgusting because it’s a pittance compared to the cost of living. The $61,000 is more interesting.

    Actually – the most interesting aspect of that doctors story is that he’s working 55 hours per week. This is blatantly stupid. My nephew has been told by his doctor not to work any more than 45 hours per week simply because it’s killing him. I’m pretty sure the same could be said for doctors who are under a hell of a lot more stress.

    National’s policy to correct this seems to be to have them work even more by capping the bureaucracy.

    Oh, should also point out that the doctor is getting paid $12/hour after tax and student loan. The cleaner working 55 hours and getting $12/hour after tax et al (I don’t know of any cleabers who actually get this much) would also be on $61k/year and so would also be considered a ‘rich prick’. Well, actually, they wouldn’t be but they would be paying the same tax as the doctor.

  43. higherstandard 43

    DTB

    It is not unusual for junior Drs to work 55hrs per week many work more this has been the case for as long as I can remember.

    You also state that National’s policy is to have them work harder by capping the bureacracy this is wrong as they have stated, I believe, they will not cut front line staff in health education etc. I think you would find that most medical staff would find being classed as bureaucracy as insulting as per Peter Dady in todays paper (this is a view that many of us have sympathy with).

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/sundaystartimes/4455535a6005.html

    scroll down to number 9

  44. Pascal's bookie 44

    HS, do you think that reducing the number of backroom staff will actually, in reality, reduce the number of backroom work that needs to be done?

    If not, who do you think will end up doing it, if not you and your colleagues?

  45. higherstandard 45

    I think the critical question is what really is the amount of backroom and Ministry work that needs to be done.

    As a very simple example why does a country of 4 million need 21 DHBs ?

  46. Pascal's bookie 46

    Reading those comments in the SST, I was struck by their thoughtfulness.

    Why, all we need to is institute common sense systems, and eliminate stupidity. Brilliant!

    I guess that would be something like “sick people should get the necessary treatment from the medical system to help them get better”. That’s common sense.

    Sorted then.

  47. big bruv 47

    Pascal

    What on earth is this “backroom” work that needs to be done?

    Apart from culling patients from waiting lists to make this corrupt govt look better than it actually is I cannot think of anything that could justify the huge growth in the bureaucracy.

  48. the sprout 48

    i can’t wait for when you’re fired BB, you’re such a bore.

  49. Pascal's bookie 49

    BB

    I cannot think of anything

    Agreed, so perhaps you should just stick to reading for a year or twelve, and spare us all from your boring lack of thought.

  50. Tane 50

    Burt, in response to your query, I honestly don’t know enough about the pay scales of junior doctors or what their job involves to make an informed comment.

  51. darryl p 51

    Actually, most jumior doctors have ambitions to one day become specialists so there’s alot to be said for them working as much as possible so they can climb the ladder in the shortest amount of time. It’s only when you graduate from university as a doctor that you really start your apprenticeship. The real learning happens on the job. When I was a builders apprentice back in the early 90’s we often worked 10 hour days, but none of us complained as we were learning and getting our hours up. I shouldn’t be surprised if that happens in most fields, not just for doctors. it’s just part of being young and working your way up.

  52. Tim 52

    How would that doctor be better off under National?

    It was Labour that introduced interest free student loans. National only wants to cut spending in the public service.

    However, I agree we do have a major problem retaining doctors in NZ. I think we should have a policy that if doctors trained in NZ remain in NZ they get big reductions on their student loans, or have the loans wiped altogether. The cost of medical education is too high.

    However, $61,000 isn’t bad for a 24 year old and it tends to go up pretty quickly with experience.

  53. Jameson 53

    higherstandard: “OOB – The hospital cleaners do play an important part in any hospital, however to say it is just as important as the part played by doctors is patently absurd.’

    I’m surprised that you think this is patently absurd. Surely this is the crux of your Marxist doctrine: that the factory worker is just as important as the factory owner, and that skimming the earnings of the ‘rich pricks’ and topping up the pay packets of the ‘poor pricks’ is the only way we can have a truly equal society.

    Or are you acknowledging that those who study hard at school and work hard in the careers should be justly recognised – and rewarded – for their hard-earned efforts?

  54. Andrew Jull 54

    Policy Parrot said “if accurate, this is not a good poll result for the centre-left.”

    The chief problem with most political polls, one that is poorly understood and never articulated in newspaper reports, is the default assumption that underpins sample size calculation. A polling sample size is determined by the choice of margin of error and a sample size of 700-800 will deliver a margin of error of 3%-4%. But this margin of error is based on the assumption that the poll is a two horse race ie will the voter go with National or Labour. No New Zealand poll I have seen is powered to accurately address what is, in essence, a subgroup analysis ie what percentage of the population will vote for the minor parties. Therefore the response to Policy Parrot’s implied question is that any poll with a sample size based on a the assumption of two horse race will not tell you anything useful about the other horses. A different sample size calculation is needed and will probably result in larger sample size to address the question of minor parties.

  55. higherstandard 55

    Jameson are you accusing me or OOB of being a marxist – I can’t speak for OOB but I can assure I’m not.

  56. Jameson 56

    Sorry, higherstandard, I assumed you were one of ‘them’. 🙂

    Would you like to explain to OOB – and the many here who think it’s patently sensible – why his statement is ‘patently absurd’?

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    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    2 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    3 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    3 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    4 days ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    5 days ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    5 days ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    6 days ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    6 days ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    7 days ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    7 days ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    7 days ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Democracy – I Don’t Think So
    So, those who “know best” have again done their worst. While constantly claiming to be the guardians of democracy and the constitution, and respecters of the 2016 referendum result, diehard Remainers (who have never brought themselves to believe that their advice could have been rejected) have striven might and main ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago

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