How high will Ardern’s Labour go?

Written By: - Date published: 9:01 am, August 10th, 2017 - 69 comments
Categories: election 2017, labour, leadership - Tags: ,

If Jacinda Ardern’s Labour can get a jump to 33-36% in the polls in just one week, how high can it go for the election? Political commentators are picking over 40%.

We need to see further gains coming from National. Jacinda Ardern is the charasmatic new leader that can win them over. Labour is re-emerging as a strong and stable party that they can vote for.

We also need, and I expect to see, the Green vote recovering. I hope that everyone who believed in and was inspired by what Metiria Turei was trying to do will not give up, but will heed her words – The Greens need you now more than ever!

69 comments on “How high will Ardern’s Labour go? ”

  1. Kevin 1

    Yes, she has changed the political landscape which is great. But it is the new raft of policies on transport, water and housing that has won me back over.

    • red-blooded 1.1

      Great to hear, Kevin. These policies were already in the pipeline, but Ardern has the skills to communicate them well and the media are paying attention at last.

  2. I think many like me who haven’t voted green for a few elections will vote Green this one. I expect a good number of MP’s in parliament from the Greens after the election.

    • dukeofurl 2.1

      Not. going. to. happen.

      • marty mars 2.1.1

        Incorrect I will party vote green – that is a fact.

        • dukeofurl 2.1.1.1

          You said ‘many like me’- no need to blow smoke where the sun doesnt shine

          “The Greens have plunged from 15 per cent to 8 per cent in a private UMR poll leaked to the Herald and from 13 to 8.3 in the Reid Research poll on Newshub.”
          http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11901150

          MT made a stupid political mistake of making herself the poster child of the welfare policy- then she dug in over it until her credibility was destroyed piece by piece since.
          Its doesnt mean the Greens in general have the same faults, but look what happened to labour, they didnt miss Little one bit once he was gone. Thats the way to do it, no point in building a shrine to the cult of MT

          • marty mars 2.1.1.1.1

            Oh is that the bit – how many is many mate? It’s okay that’s a tough question. And if you are a fickle poll follower good for you.

            • dukeofurl 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Its much more reputable than your nonsense. I bet you loved it when the ‘same polls’ had the Greens near 15%.
              A poll at the end of this week might even be lower than 8%

              Your whole political thought process is scrambled, you werent a party vote Greens and you want to now because MT couldnt see the hole she dug for the party.

              • Dspare

                dukeofurl
                I am also one who; like marty mars, didn’t vote for the Green party in the last few elections, but will be voting for them this time. Largely in recognition of the efforts and sacracfices that Turei has made in bringing poverty back into the political discourse. She seems to have a capable replacement in Marama Davidson to continue the struggle.

                Two is, of course,not yet many; but others here may want to +1 this comment to show how real we are as a voting block.

                • alwyn

                  On the basis of the “+1″s you got I guess that must mean there a 3 of you.
                  Just You, Marty and Devo.

                  The real killer for the Green Party will be, as I think may be the case, that they drop down to the <5% category.
                  If that happens, even in a single poll I don't think they will be able to recover. Anyone who is thinking of voting for them will have to consider that they will be wasting their vote and may therefore decide to go for Labour.
                  The Green Party isn't like NZF, the Maori Party or even ACT.
                  They don't have an electorate seat to keep them afloat.

                  Have a look at billmurray’s comment at 11 below. If he means that he is an example of what I mean.

                  • Dspare

                    alwyn
                    I always thought that billmurray demeaned the name of an amusing, if not great, actor in his choice of name. But it has made him stand out in memory so I know that I seldom agree with any of his comments. But good on him if he wants to support Labour, at least it is not National, or NZF.

                    I think a more convincing reason for the lack of +1 is that it is a busy news days and it to is a deeplythreaded comment. Unless you are arguing that we are the only three people in Aotearoa who are going to vote for the GP? Which would admittedly result in a less than 5% party vote, I can’t see them failing to clear that electoral hurdle otherwise.

                    But you may be right that polls can act as self-fulfilling prophecies.

                    • alwyn

                      Well, the first para was really only joking. I just thought it was funny that only one person followed the lead.

                      The rest of it is quite serious though. If you don’t think your vote will count I think people are quite likely to switch to one that will.

                      They may also switch their response to a pollster’s question. I have often wondered whether the reason that the Green Party seems to drop quite a lot between the final poll and the election is that people may SAY they are going to vote Green to give themselves a little glow of virtue in the eyes of the pollster but don’t then go through with it on polling day.
                      NZF on the other hand seem to hit their polling figure on election day much more accurately.

                      If the Greens were to drop a lot in the polls there may be a feeling that if most of their voters are switching I am going to look ignorant, or foolish, if I don’t do so as well and the poll numbers will tend to become self-fulfilling.

                      I wouldn’t put any money on this hypothesis though. It is just a thought on the matter.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      Alwyn – the Green vote, our vote, will not dip below1!0%; that’s our natural level, however, it could increase, with circumstances favouring us. I mean to say, your scare-mongering is futile: The Greens will come in, 10% or above, certainty!

                    • alwyn

                      Robert.
                      Your faith is very touching, although I think somewhat optimistic.
                      Only 6 weeks and we shall find out.
                      It is certainly turning out to be a much more interesting election than most people expected, isn’t it?

                    • Robert Guyton

                      Yes, Alwyn, I’m loving it. Who’d have foreseen the huge up-swing for Labour at this point in the cycle? The timing is very fortuitous and very difficult to contain. It’s all very volatile and exciting and beats a dull plod toward Bethlehem any day, imo.

                  • silly al – is that how you used to do your high flying analysis in the day eh? No wonder a silly rightie like you hangs with us lefties all day. sad little no mates al lol.

                • the pigman

                  +1

                  Also note that lprent said the same thing last night.

                  I have always voted Labour, partly out of tribalism, partly out of applying the sunk-costs fallacy, but now that it is in a position where it’s not facing such existential threats, I can give all of that up and vote for the party whose policies actually align most closely with my principles.

                  It’s great.

                  • AB

                    +1 This is my position too – always voted Labour (except 1990) but if Ardern drags them into safe territory I will vote Green.

              • Diddums you dont get it – shock horror – do some learning outside buddy there’s more to life than those polls.

          • RedLogix 2.1.1.1.2

            @dou

            There is no doubt MT dug a large and treacherous hole for herself. There is no doubt her political management was unwise, in stepping outside the conventional discourse she underestimated the backlash and failed to take precautions that in hindsight would have been a good idea.

            But equally it’s plain her motives were sincere, reform of a shameful, ugly, shitty welfare system in this country which abuses and damages so many vulnerable people. (And in my experience people who defend the shameful are often driven to project spiteful and nasty).

            And especially it was unwise for MT and the Greens to treat too lightly the values on many other New Zealanders (including some in their own caucas) whose own sense of fairness puts a higher weight on the idea of ‘not cheating’.

            But I’m 100% clear on one thing here, my contempt and disgust IS focused on that small group of political players who’ve gleefully swarmed like carrion flies, jostling for the space to not only shove Metiria into the hole, but taking turns to shovel the dirt on top … and then gloating after.

        • Venezia 2.1.1.2

          And so will I.

    • Oh and I also expect the agreement between labour and the greens to be disestablished this week.

  3. mauī 3

    Funny after years of tv polls and statements like another horrible poll result for labour, little not polling well for preferred PM being gleefully told to us. Labour then gets its biggest rise in I dunno a decade? and they portray it as run of the mill stuff, like Labour always has preferred PM in mid 20s percent lol.

  4. Sorrwerdna 4

    I think the latest poll is more of a shifting of the chairs on the Titanic

  5. Gabby 5

    She maybe should give some thought to encouraging the finance spokesperson to announce new taxes, levies etc. He’ll have the numbers at his fingertips and would be able to reassure people worried by vague hints.

    • red-blooded 5.1

      David Parker (ex Finance, now Environment) did that on Morning Report today. That being said, they’re being honest when they say that the details of the levies will be worked through when they’ve got access to government resources like Treasury and when they’ve had a chance to consult with the various interest groups.

  6. Enough is Enough 6

    This really shows that politics is about personality.

    The Labour Party is the same Labour Party as it was 12 days ago. The policies are the same, the message is the same, the candidates are the same.

    The messenger is different.

    I am not sure I am entirely comfortable with this cult of personality brand of politics. Fantastic result that the left will now win this election, but if it was simply based on policy then we would have had this support 12 days ago

    • +1

      People don’t seem to be able to accept reality unless it comes wrapped in a nice package – which means that it’s not reality.

    • Marcus Morris 6.2

      EiE – Essentially you are right of course but I have followed politics in this country long enough to know that it is the messenger who usually wins the day. Think Norman Kirk (brilliant and passionate) “time for a change”, Robert Muldoon (frighteningly powerful) “reds under the bed”, David Lange (Brilliant and funny) “A relief from Muldoon”, Helen Clark (strong, measured and thoughtful), Dr Sir John Key (smooth and glib) and now Jacinda (young, vibrant and sincere)” a vision of hope”.

    • ropata 6.3

      Politics = Popularity contest.

      Like high school but nastier, stupider, more overblown egos, and no teachers around to moderate the backstabbing and scheming.

      Who needs GoT.

  7. red-blooded 7

    There’s truth to your comment. I think it’s a mix of communication and personality, though. Ardern is calm and articulate, and she is able to present the positives. It helps that she’s witty and warm, but that wouldn’t be enough by itself.

    • Enough is Enough 7.1

      I think it is almost enough. Key dragged a useless National Party over the line three times. Not because he had good policy but because people liked him.

      Goff, Cunliffe and Little had great policy but swing voters did not like them. Fundamentally the same policy platform is being offered again but for one reason it appears to be more appealing.

      • Gabby 7.1.1

        Cunliffe was particularly susceptible to questions he hadn’t thought about (or hadn’t been briefed on). The just been hit from behind by a bus look was not reassuring.

    • Johan 7.2

      NZ voters have a habit of voting out governments. National is not looking very appealing, Bill English comes across as boring and uninspiring, the “trust me I know what I am doing,” approach will not likely work for Bill.
      Ardern is very much like Helen Clark, plus the warmth, humour and connectivity, which comes across naturally during media interviews.

  8. McFlock 8

    Alternatively, Labour could be down to 25 next week.

    I suspect what we’ve seen lately is the power of media, attack lies, and attack lines. The greens got an initial bump because the tories were outraged but hadn’t found their lines yet. It didn’t compute with them that some people would understand her position, and identify with it. When the media lines weren’t working, they went to the family.

    While I do believe that Ardern has had a positive effect on Labour, I also think that some tories see a majority labour govt as less harmful to their interests as a majority green government. Now the latter is less likely with one outstanding green leader gone, the next target will be Labour again.

    They’ll be as bad to Ardern as they were to Clark. And now they know they can still draw blood.

  9. red-blooded 9

    Ardern will definitely face some tough times no question. I think she’s shown pretty damn impressive personal attributes so far, though, including being able to read a mood and think on her feet.

    I’m sure some Nats will feel less threatened by a majority Labour government than they would by a majority Green one (although I think you’re stretching reality if you’re positing that as a realistic outcome of this election, even without the change in leadership for Labour, but I guess we’ll never know). That’s actually a necessity if we want to win some of the soft Nat voters over though, and tactically speaking that has to be an aim. That doesn’t mean becoming “National lite” (as some commenting on this site assert) – it means convincing some people that Labour’s vision is more positive than National’s – that it will help to build a better society. That’s got to be a major focus for the Labour campaign.

    • Gabby 9.1

      Tangible benefits to voters. All very well to say it’s the right thing to do, but people don’t seem to vote for that. What do I get out of a water royalty / Auckland petrol tax? I’m a greedy selfish little voter. Show how I stand to be better off.

      • mikes 9.1.1

        Exactly. The new leader has only been there a week and already Labour has announced two new consumption taxes, which hurt those on low incomes. I haven’t heard Ardern say anything about the working class, Labour has forgotten about them.

        • red-blooded 9.1.1.1

          Mike, quite a lot of Labour policy was out well before Ardern took over the leadership. She’s been in the job for about a week and in that time has announced policies that were already planned to be rolled out this week.

          Here’s a smattering of the Labour policies already announced that aim to improve the lives of working people:
          – “Fair Pay” agreements (sector wide base-conditions agreements)
          – Living wage for all public sector employees
          – Double the number of Labour inspectors
          – Dump the “fire at will” 90 Days law (allow trial periods but protect against unjustified dismissal)
          – 3 years free post-school training/education, to be used at any stage of life
          – Families Package: increase WFF, Best Start payments for child’s early years
          – Winter Fuel allowance for beneficiaries/superannuitants
          – Increase and ring-fence mental health funding
          – Immigration controls aimed at stopping wages and conditions being driven artificially low
          – Housing policies, including Kiwibuild (increasing the pool of housing, so decreasing the pressures that are sending costs spiralling)
          – More state housing
          – Strong focus on housing for Māori
          – Healthy homes guarantee
          … Check out other stuff for yourself.
          http://www.labour.org.nz/announced_policies

          And, of course, there’s more to come.

          • mikes 9.1.1.1.1

            Thanks Red-Blooded. It’s a good list, I was aware of most of those things but there’s also a couple I hadn’t really thought about.

            But I wasn’t thinking in regards to the policy detail, which in my opinion a large (huge) chunk of voters don’t think about other than in very broad terms. What I meant was in the actual audible message coming across in the media. I mean the actual words ‘working class’.

            Whether we like it or not, most voters (again just my opinion) base their vote upon what they see on the news or hear on the radio or from friends, rather than actually researching policy detail. Call me cynical but based upon things such as how complimentary the media have been so far about Ardern, I would say she represents in broad terms pretty much the status quo, a safe alternative, or at least nothing that might scare the bankers or globalists. I truly hope I am wrong on that.

            Then again, I’m quite an unusual sort of hybrid in terms of my political leanings. I guess I could be described as very left leaning on most things and probably right wing on a few others. In regards to the economic and financial side of things I believe we need very radical change and don’t see any of the main parties offering that.

    • McFlock 9.2

      Soft nat voters who vote based on policy are antithetical to any social policy progress.

      Now, there might be a bunch of voters who voted nat because they liked mr key, or thought it was the nats’ turn to rule, or were strangely drawn to music by Eminem, that’s another thing entirely. But then Labour doesn’t need to be less threatening to nat policies to get those voters.

      Ardern’s doing quite well being more energetic than blinglish, IMO, so the softnats are sorted.

      But for tory strategists, a Labour government with a tiny minority green party as coalition ally is a contingency plan, a mitigated loss. They’ll try to avoid it at all costs.

      • AB 9.2.1

        Agreed – Nat strategists know that eventually National governments get replaced.
        When that happens, they want to ensure that whatever replaces them inflicts minimal damage to their own financial and business interests. The right-wing effort to define the acceptable form of the Labour Party (e.g. the backing of Shearer as leader) is quite evident. Occasionally they’ll hit the jackpot and a Labour government will appear that actually advances their interests (1984-1990), though this is highly unusual.

        But having the power to define the acceptable limits of their own opposition won’t stop then from attacking that opposition. The guns will turn on Ardern now.

        • Robert Guyton 9.2.1.1

          Perceptive and clear comment, AB.

        • Marcus Morris 9.2.1.2

          Actually no one except Douglas and those who had read his book ( “There has to be another way” I think it was called) knew before the 1984 election what was to come. Certainly David Lange wasn’t clear about the dramatic changes that were on Douglas’s agenda. The reality was that Muldoon gave little time for any policies to be enunciated. In fact his response to the question “You have not given yourself much time” was “It hasn’t given my enemies much time either”

  10. This whole Dirty Politics thing with their embedded media shills has been a watershed event .

    Yes Jacinda Adern is a charismatic new leader, and Labour has risen dramatically. That’s good. But the whole neo liberal narrative and its dehumanizing treatment of the unemployed, working people, and the whole terminally ill welfare state under Bill English has been challenged by the Greens. And it cannot be put back in the box. It is out there.

    This election will be synonymous with the viciousness of the National party and its contempt for members of the public , – and Nationals embedded right wing media pundits. I say ‘ pundits’ because that is what they are. Biased , paid for pundits. They are not impartial journalists in any true sense of the word.

    In fact , they are , … by their very biases, self descriptions of an anti democratic faction that acts purely out of vested self interests.

    I expect Aderns Labour will almost certainly reach into the 40’s. I expect there will be a change of govt. And I also expect there to be a resurgence of sentiment towards the Greens that will also help to change that govt . There is a MOU in effect. And even if Aderns Labour reaches into the 40’s , which seems almost guaranteed , it will be the combined strength of both the Greens and Labour and other party’s that will banish National.

    Its going to be a good election.

  11. billmurray 11

    I will vote for my local Labour candidate, plus I will give my party vote to Labour.
    The Greens are melting away before my eyes, James Shaw needs support.

  12. ianmac 12

    One of Helen’s strengths was her clear vision of the philosophy of Labour. This enabled her to be clear and concise when questioned. Jacinda is just like that.
    Key being a self-declared pragmatist just adopted whatever position suited the audience or expediency. This enabled him to duck and twist and avoid accountibility.

    Go on and up Jacinda.

  13. Robert Guyton 13

    Do you think The National Party and it’s supporters are concerned about a girl ?

    🙂

  14. Tamati Tautuhi 14

    Jacindamania going through the “honeymoon period” ?

  15. UncookedSelachimorpha 15

    Imagine Greens+Labour > 50% (and no need for NZF)? Dare to Dream yet anyone…?

    If that does come to fruition, I hope they strongly wind back neoliberalism.

    • aom 15.1

      Sorry UncookedSelachimorpha – can’t imagine it at all. Given the strong suspicion that Labour jumped on the opportunity to help shaft the Turei led agenda for beneficiaries and no doubt assisted to engage the last minute Harley expose, it seems more likely to NZF/Labour modified neo-liberal outfit again if another National dirty politics tour de force fails.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 15.1.1

        Unfortunately, what you say seems more likely to me, too….but dreams are free.

    • Katipo 15.2

      Hmmm… wonder if National taks a dive and Labour+Greens governing alone poll results approach 50%, would more semi-hard-National-never vote-Labour supporters start switching to NZ1st as a kind of spoiler vote.

  16. BM 16

    Labor will get somewhere between 30-32% at this years election, which is a great result considering they were looking sub 20 just a week or two ago.

    • red-blooded 16.1

      Yes, Labour has bounced back well in the polls, BM. Remind me, though, where does your “sub 20” line come from? (Apart from your dreams, that is.) A week ago Labour had some awful poll results, but they sure as hell weren’t sub 20.

  17. Daniel Eyre 17

    Well she’s enjoying a honeymoon period.

    The more we see of her; the less people will like her. People won’t keep overlooking her bragging about meeting Nelson Mandela, etc.

    But that will probably start occurring after the election.

  18. Brencas 18

    Brash said it all in a nutshell. No real policy, no substance, no credibility. When Kelvin Davis labours deputy doesn’t even know his own party’s policy on CGT, housing or tax anybody who votes labour deserves what they get. Oh yea of short memory, remember past labour governments blowing a national created surplus and being voted out and leaving the country in a deficit.

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    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • The Possum: Demon or Friend?

    Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Not a story

    Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry published its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • A tougher line on “proactive release”?

    The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 'Let's build a motorway costing $100 million per km, before emissions costs'

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Lester's Prescription – Positive Bleeding.

    I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Casey Costello gaslights Labour in the House

    Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone icon on the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Why is the Texas grid in such bad shape?

    This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Headline from 2021 The Texas grid, run by ERCOT, has had a rough few years. In 2021, winter storm Uri blacked out much of the state for several days. About a week ago, Hurricane Beryl knocked out ...
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

    The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

    Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.    “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

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