How high will Ardern’s Labour go?

Written By: - Date published: 9:01 am, August 10th, 2017 - 69 comments
Categories: election 2017, labour, leadership - Tags: ,

If Jacinda Ardern’s Labour can get a jump to 33-36% in the polls in just one week, how high can it go for the election? Political commentators are picking over 40%.

We need to see further gains coming from National. Jacinda Ardern is the charasmatic new leader that can win them over. Labour is re-emerging as a strong and stable party that they can vote for.

We also need, and I expect to see, the Green vote recovering. I hope that everyone who believed in and was inspired by what Metiria Turei was trying to do will not give up, but will heed her words – The Greens need you now more than ever!

69 comments on “How high will Ardern’s Labour go? ”

  1. Kevin 1

    Yes, she has changed the political landscape which is great. But it is the new raft of policies on transport, water and housing that has won me back over.

    • red-blooded 1.1

      Great to hear, Kevin. These policies were already in the pipeline, but Ardern has the skills to communicate them well and the media are paying attention at last.

  2. I think many like me who haven’t voted green for a few elections will vote Green this one. I expect a good number of MP’s in parliament from the Greens after the election.

    • dukeofurl 2.1

      Not. going. to. happen.

      • marty mars 2.1.1

        Incorrect I will party vote green – that is a fact.

        • dukeofurl 2.1.1.1

          You said ‘many like me’- no need to blow smoke where the sun doesnt shine

          “The Greens have plunged from 15 per cent to 8 per cent in a private UMR poll leaked to the Herald and from 13 to 8.3 in the Reid Research poll on Newshub.”
          http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11901150

          MT made a stupid political mistake of making herself the poster child of the welfare policy- then she dug in over it until her credibility was destroyed piece by piece since.
          Its doesnt mean the Greens in general have the same faults, but look what happened to labour, they didnt miss Little one bit once he was gone. Thats the way to do it, no point in building a shrine to the cult of MT

          • marty mars 2.1.1.1.1

            Oh is that the bit – how many is many mate? It’s okay that’s a tough question. And if you are a fickle poll follower good for you.

            • dukeofurl 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Its much more reputable than your nonsense. I bet you loved it when the ‘same polls’ had the Greens near 15%.
              A poll at the end of this week might even be lower than 8%

              Your whole political thought process is scrambled, you werent a party vote Greens and you want to now because MT couldnt see the hole she dug for the party.

              • Dspare

                dukeofurl
                I am also one who; like marty mars, didn’t vote for the Green party in the last few elections, but will be voting for them this time. Largely in recognition of the efforts and sacracfices that Turei has made in bringing poverty back into the political discourse. She seems to have a capable replacement in Marama Davidson to continue the struggle.

                Two is, of course,not yet many; but others here may want to +1 this comment to show how real we are as a voting block.

                • alwyn

                  On the basis of the “+1″s you got I guess that must mean there a 3 of you.
                  Just You, Marty and Devo.

                  The real killer for the Green Party will be, as I think may be the case, that they drop down to the <5% category.
                  If that happens, even in a single poll I don't think they will be able to recover. Anyone who is thinking of voting for them will have to consider that they will be wasting their vote and may therefore decide to go for Labour.
                  The Green Party isn't like NZF, the Maori Party or even ACT.
                  They don't have an electorate seat to keep them afloat.

                  Have a look at billmurray’s comment at 11 below. If he means that he is an example of what I mean.

                  • Dspare

                    alwyn
                    I always thought that billmurray demeaned the name of an amusing, if not great, actor in his choice of name. But it has made him stand out in memory so I know that I seldom agree with any of his comments. But good on him if he wants to support Labour, at least it is not National, or NZF.

                    I think a more convincing reason for the lack of +1 is that it is a busy news days and it to is a deeplythreaded comment. Unless you are arguing that we are the only three people in Aotearoa who are going to vote for the GP? Which would admittedly result in a less than 5% party vote, I can’t see them failing to clear that electoral hurdle otherwise.

                    But you may be right that polls can act as self-fulfilling prophecies.

                    • alwyn

                      Well, the first para was really only joking. I just thought it was funny that only one person followed the lead.

                      The rest of it is quite serious though. If you don’t think your vote will count I think people are quite likely to switch to one that will.

                      They may also switch their response to a pollster’s question. I have often wondered whether the reason that the Green Party seems to drop quite a lot between the final poll and the election is that people may SAY they are going to vote Green to give themselves a little glow of virtue in the eyes of the pollster but don’t then go through with it on polling day.
                      NZF on the other hand seem to hit their polling figure on election day much more accurately.

                      If the Greens were to drop a lot in the polls there may be a feeling that if most of their voters are switching I am going to look ignorant, or foolish, if I don’t do so as well and the poll numbers will tend to become self-fulfilling.

                      I wouldn’t put any money on this hypothesis though. It is just a thought on the matter.

                    • Robert Guyton

                      Alwyn – the Green vote, our vote, will not dip below1!0%; that’s our natural level, however, it could increase, with circumstances favouring us. I mean to say, your scare-mongering is futile: The Greens will come in, 10% or above, certainty!

                    • alwyn

                      Robert.
                      Your faith is very touching, although I think somewhat optimistic.
                      Only 6 weeks and we shall find out.
                      It is certainly turning out to be a much more interesting election than most people expected, isn’t it?

                    • Robert Guyton

                      Yes, Alwyn, I’m loving it. Who’d have foreseen the huge up-swing for Labour at this point in the cycle? The timing is very fortuitous and very difficult to contain. It’s all very volatile and exciting and beats a dull plod toward Bethlehem any day, imo.

                  • silly al – is that how you used to do your high flying analysis in the day eh? No wonder a silly rightie like you hangs with us lefties all day. sad little no mates al lol.

                • the pigman

                  +1

                  Also note that lprent said the same thing last night.

                  I have always voted Labour, partly out of tribalism, partly out of applying the sunk-costs fallacy, but now that it is in a position where it’s not facing such existential threats, I can give all of that up and vote for the party whose policies actually align most closely with my principles.

                  It’s great.

                  • AB

                    +1 This is my position too – always voted Labour (except 1990) but if Ardern drags them into safe territory I will vote Green.

              • Diddums you dont get it – shock horror – do some learning outside buddy there’s more to life than those polls.

          • RedLogix 2.1.1.1.2

            @dou

            There is no doubt MT dug a large and treacherous hole for herself. There is no doubt her political management was unwise, in stepping outside the conventional discourse she underestimated the backlash and failed to take precautions that in hindsight would have been a good idea.

            But equally it’s plain her motives were sincere, reform of a shameful, ugly, shitty welfare system in this country which abuses and damages so many vulnerable people. (And in my experience people who defend the shameful are often driven to project spiteful and nasty).

            And especially it was unwise for MT and the Greens to treat too lightly the values on many other New Zealanders (including some in their own caucas) whose own sense of fairness puts a higher weight on the idea of ‘not cheating’.

            But I’m 100% clear on one thing here, my contempt and disgust IS focused on that small group of political players who’ve gleefully swarmed like carrion flies, jostling for the space to not only shove Metiria into the hole, but taking turns to shovel the dirt on top … and then gloating after.

        • Venezia 2.1.1.2

          And so will I.

    • Oh and I also expect the agreement between labour and the greens to be disestablished this week.

  3. mauī 3

    Funny after years of tv polls and statements like another horrible poll result for labour, little not polling well for preferred PM being gleefully told to us. Labour then gets its biggest rise in I dunno a decade? and they portray it as run of the mill stuff, like Labour always has preferred PM in mid 20s percent lol.

  4. Sorrwerdna 4

    I think the latest poll is more of a shifting of the chairs on the Titanic

  5. Gabby 5

    She maybe should give some thought to encouraging the finance spokesperson to announce new taxes, levies etc. He’ll have the numbers at his fingertips and would be able to reassure people worried by vague hints.

    • red-blooded 5.1

      David Parker (ex Finance, now Environment) did that on Morning Report today. That being said, they’re being honest when they say that the details of the levies will be worked through when they’ve got access to government resources like Treasury and when they’ve had a chance to consult with the various interest groups.

  6. Enough is Enough 6

    This really shows that politics is about personality.

    The Labour Party is the same Labour Party as it was 12 days ago. The policies are the same, the message is the same, the candidates are the same.

    The messenger is different.

    I am not sure I am entirely comfortable with this cult of personality brand of politics. Fantastic result that the left will now win this election, but if it was simply based on policy then we would have had this support 12 days ago

    • +1

      People don’t seem to be able to accept reality unless it comes wrapped in a nice package – which means that it’s not reality.

    • Marcus Morris 6.2

      EiE – Essentially you are right of course but I have followed politics in this country long enough to know that it is the messenger who usually wins the day. Think Norman Kirk (brilliant and passionate) “time for a change”, Robert Muldoon (frighteningly powerful) “reds under the bed”, David Lange (Brilliant and funny) “A relief from Muldoon”, Helen Clark (strong, measured and thoughtful), Dr Sir John Key (smooth and glib) and now Jacinda (young, vibrant and sincere)” a vision of hope”.

    • ropata 6.3

      Politics = Popularity contest.

      Like high school but nastier, stupider, more overblown egos, and no teachers around to moderate the backstabbing and scheming.

      Who needs GoT.

  7. red-blooded 7

    There’s truth to your comment. I think it’s a mix of communication and personality, though. Ardern is calm and articulate, and she is able to present the positives. It helps that she’s witty and warm, but that wouldn’t be enough by itself.

    • Enough is Enough 7.1

      I think it is almost enough. Key dragged a useless National Party over the line three times. Not because he had good policy but because people liked him.

      Goff, Cunliffe and Little had great policy but swing voters did not like them. Fundamentally the same policy platform is being offered again but for one reason it appears to be more appealing.

      • Gabby 7.1.1

        Cunliffe was particularly susceptible to questions he hadn’t thought about (or hadn’t been briefed on). The just been hit from behind by a bus look was not reassuring.

    • Johan 7.2

      NZ voters have a habit of voting out governments. National is not looking very appealing, Bill English comes across as boring and uninspiring, the “trust me I know what I am doing,” approach will not likely work for Bill.
      Ardern is very much like Helen Clark, plus the warmth, humour and connectivity, which comes across naturally during media interviews.

  8. McFlock 8

    Alternatively, Labour could be down to 25 next week.

    I suspect what we’ve seen lately is the power of media, attack lies, and attack lines. The greens got an initial bump because the tories were outraged but hadn’t found their lines yet. It didn’t compute with them that some people would understand her position, and identify with it. When the media lines weren’t working, they went to the family.

    While I do believe that Ardern has had a positive effect on Labour, I also think that some tories see a majority labour govt as less harmful to their interests as a majority green government. Now the latter is less likely with one outstanding green leader gone, the next target will be Labour again.

    They’ll be as bad to Ardern as they were to Clark. And now they know they can still draw blood.

  9. red-blooded 9

    Ardern will definitely face some tough times no question. I think she’s shown pretty damn impressive personal attributes so far, though, including being able to read a mood and think on her feet.

    I’m sure some Nats will feel less threatened by a majority Labour government than they would by a majority Green one (although I think you’re stretching reality if you’re positing that as a realistic outcome of this election, even without the change in leadership for Labour, but I guess we’ll never know). That’s actually a necessity if we want to win some of the soft Nat voters over though, and tactically speaking that has to be an aim. That doesn’t mean becoming “National lite” (as some commenting on this site assert) – it means convincing some people that Labour’s vision is more positive than National’s – that it will help to build a better society. That’s got to be a major focus for the Labour campaign.

    • Gabby 9.1

      Tangible benefits to voters. All very well to say it’s the right thing to do, but people don’t seem to vote for that. What do I get out of a water royalty / Auckland petrol tax? I’m a greedy selfish little voter. Show how I stand to be better off.

      • mikes 9.1.1

        Exactly. The new leader has only been there a week and already Labour has announced two new consumption taxes, which hurt those on low incomes. I haven’t heard Ardern say anything about the working class, Labour has forgotten about them.

        • red-blooded 9.1.1.1

          Mike, quite a lot of Labour policy was out well before Ardern took over the leadership. She’s been in the job for about a week and in that time has announced policies that were already planned to be rolled out this week.

          Here’s a smattering of the Labour policies already announced that aim to improve the lives of working people:
          – “Fair Pay” agreements (sector wide base-conditions agreements)
          – Living wage for all public sector employees
          – Double the number of Labour inspectors
          – Dump the “fire at will” 90 Days law (allow trial periods but protect against unjustified dismissal)
          – 3 years free post-school training/education, to be used at any stage of life
          – Families Package: increase WFF, Best Start payments for child’s early years
          – Winter Fuel allowance for beneficiaries/superannuitants
          – Increase and ring-fence mental health funding
          – Immigration controls aimed at stopping wages and conditions being driven artificially low
          – Housing policies, including Kiwibuild (increasing the pool of housing, so decreasing the pressures that are sending costs spiralling)
          – More state housing
          – Strong focus on housing for Māori
          – Healthy homes guarantee
          … Check out other stuff for yourself.
          http://www.labour.org.nz/announced_policies

          And, of course, there’s more to come.

          • mikes 9.1.1.1.1

            Thanks Red-Blooded. It’s a good list, I was aware of most of those things but there’s also a couple I hadn’t really thought about.

            But I wasn’t thinking in regards to the policy detail, which in my opinion a large (huge) chunk of voters don’t think about other than in very broad terms. What I meant was in the actual audible message coming across in the media. I mean the actual words ‘working class’.

            Whether we like it or not, most voters (again just my opinion) base their vote upon what they see on the news or hear on the radio or from friends, rather than actually researching policy detail. Call me cynical but based upon things such as how complimentary the media have been so far about Ardern, I would say she represents in broad terms pretty much the status quo, a safe alternative, or at least nothing that might scare the bankers or globalists. I truly hope I am wrong on that.

            Then again, I’m quite an unusual sort of hybrid in terms of my political leanings. I guess I could be described as very left leaning on most things and probably right wing on a few others. In regards to the economic and financial side of things I believe we need very radical change and don’t see any of the main parties offering that.

    • McFlock 9.2

      Soft nat voters who vote based on policy are antithetical to any social policy progress.

      Now, there might be a bunch of voters who voted nat because they liked mr key, or thought it was the nats’ turn to rule, or were strangely drawn to music by Eminem, that’s another thing entirely. But then Labour doesn’t need to be less threatening to nat policies to get those voters.

      Ardern’s doing quite well being more energetic than blinglish, IMO, so the softnats are sorted.

      But for tory strategists, a Labour government with a tiny minority green party as coalition ally is a contingency plan, a mitigated loss. They’ll try to avoid it at all costs.

      • AB 9.2.1

        Agreed – Nat strategists know that eventually National governments get replaced.
        When that happens, they want to ensure that whatever replaces them inflicts minimal damage to their own financial and business interests. The right-wing effort to define the acceptable form of the Labour Party (e.g. the backing of Shearer as leader) is quite evident. Occasionally they’ll hit the jackpot and a Labour government will appear that actually advances their interests (1984-1990), though this is highly unusual.

        But having the power to define the acceptable limits of their own opposition won’t stop then from attacking that opposition. The guns will turn on Ardern now.

        • Robert Guyton 9.2.1.1

          Perceptive and clear comment, AB.

        • Marcus Morris 9.2.1.2

          Actually no one except Douglas and those who had read his book ( “There has to be another way” I think it was called) knew before the 1984 election what was to come. Certainly David Lange wasn’t clear about the dramatic changes that were on Douglas’s agenda. The reality was that Muldoon gave little time for any policies to be enunciated. In fact his response to the question “You have not given yourself much time” was “It hasn’t given my enemies much time either”

  10. This whole Dirty Politics thing with their embedded media shills has been a watershed event .

    Yes Jacinda Adern is a charismatic new leader, and Labour has risen dramatically. That’s good. But the whole neo liberal narrative and its dehumanizing treatment of the unemployed, working people, and the whole terminally ill welfare state under Bill English has been challenged by the Greens. And it cannot be put back in the box. It is out there.

    This election will be synonymous with the viciousness of the National party and its contempt for members of the public , – and Nationals embedded right wing media pundits. I say ‘ pundits’ because that is what they are. Biased , paid for pundits. They are not impartial journalists in any true sense of the word.

    In fact , they are , … by their very biases, self descriptions of an anti democratic faction that acts purely out of vested self interests.

    I expect Aderns Labour will almost certainly reach into the 40’s. I expect there will be a change of govt. And I also expect there to be a resurgence of sentiment towards the Greens that will also help to change that govt . There is a MOU in effect. And even if Aderns Labour reaches into the 40’s , which seems almost guaranteed , it will be the combined strength of both the Greens and Labour and other party’s that will banish National.

    Its going to be a good election.

  11. billmurray 11

    I will vote for my local Labour candidate, plus I will give my party vote to Labour.
    The Greens are melting away before my eyes, James Shaw needs support.

  12. ianmac 12

    One of Helen’s strengths was her clear vision of the philosophy of Labour. This enabled her to be clear and concise when questioned. Jacinda is just like that.
    Key being a self-declared pragmatist just adopted whatever position suited the audience or expediency. This enabled him to duck and twist and avoid accountibility.

    Go on and up Jacinda.

  13. Robert Guyton 13

    Do you think The National Party and it’s supporters are concerned about a girl ?

    🙂

  14. Tamati Tautuhi 14

    Jacindamania going through the “honeymoon period” ?

  15. UncookedSelachimorpha 15

    Imagine Greens+Labour > 50% (and no need for NZF)? Dare to Dream yet anyone…?

    If that does come to fruition, I hope they strongly wind back neoliberalism.

    • aom 15.1

      Sorry UncookedSelachimorpha – can’t imagine it at all. Given the strong suspicion that Labour jumped on the opportunity to help shaft the Turei led agenda for beneficiaries and no doubt assisted to engage the last minute Harley expose, it seems more likely to NZF/Labour modified neo-liberal outfit again if another National dirty politics tour de force fails.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 15.1.1

        Unfortunately, what you say seems more likely to me, too….but dreams are free.

    • Katipo 15.2

      Hmmm… wonder if National taks a dive and Labour+Greens governing alone poll results approach 50%, would more semi-hard-National-never vote-Labour supporters start switching to NZ1st as a kind of spoiler vote.

  16. BM 16

    Labor will get somewhere between 30-32% at this years election, which is a great result considering they were looking sub 20 just a week or two ago.

    • red-blooded 16.1

      Yes, Labour has bounced back well in the polls, BM. Remind me, though, where does your “sub 20” line come from? (Apart from your dreams, that is.) A week ago Labour had some awful poll results, but they sure as hell weren’t sub 20.

  17. Daniel Eyre 17

    Well she’s enjoying a honeymoon period.

    The more we see of her; the less people will like her. People won’t keep overlooking her bragging about meeting Nelson Mandela, etc.

    But that will probably start occurring after the election.

  18. Brencas 18

    Brash said it all in a nutshell. No real policy, no substance, no credibility. When Kelvin Davis labours deputy doesn’t even know his own party’s policy on CGT, housing or tax anybody who votes labour deserves what they get. Oh yea of short memory, remember past labour governments blowing a national created surplus and being voted out and leaving the country in a deficit.

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