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Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour and Greens surge as National flounders

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, November 23rd, 2017 - 156 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, Politics, polls - Tags: ,

The first post election poll results are out. And subject to all the usual caveats I suspect those of us on the left will be quietly smiling.

The poll reports that Labour is at 39.5%, up 2.6% from the election results. The Greens have also surged, up 3.7% to 10%. NZ First has gone backward to 5% from 7.2%. But National is the big loser, down 3.9% to 40.5%.

And confidence is at an 8 year high.

Ardern’s rise to the top job has seen an unprecedented spike in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – with 66.5% (up 8% since October) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ contributing to a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 146.5 – the highest in nearly 8 years.”

National will not like this.  Dropping below 40% will see leader contenders sharpening their knives.

156 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour and Greens surge as National flounders ”

  1. garibaldi 1

    Well, well, well, who would have thunk it? Keep diving National, you have worked hard to be a bunch of negative bastards. You deserve this reward.

    • Rāwiri 1.1

      Love it, couldn’t have said it better myself.

    • gsays 1.2

      Roger that garibaldi, clearly the Tories need to be more aggressive, negative and cynical.
      Get the crusher onto this immediately.

    • patricia bremner 1.3

      garabaldi, I couldn’t agree more!!

    • Cinny 1.4

      Well said Garibaldi

    • mary_a 1.5

      @ garibaldi (1) … Spot on there.

    • CLEANGREEN 1.6

      Well said Garibaldi;

      I couldn’t have said it better, so is that why Stupid steven joyce has filled the media screen with his ugly face then?

      Every day he is on channel one, three, or radio NZ saying how silly labour is but he will need to change his tack now that this poll shows he failed his own party, ha ha ha.

  2. North 2

    “but but but born to rule…….” Weep.

  3. One Anonymous Bloke 3

    It’s a single poll result.

    Not much use for anything other than teasing wingnuts 🙂

    • ScottGN 3.1

      Worth it for that alone…eh?

    • weka 3.2

      and others 😉

      Bryce Edwards 17 hours ago,

      The Greens will be looking to the next opinion poll with trepidation. Internal polling by other parties is rumoured to show both the Greens and New Zealand First have dropped in the aftermath of the election and formation of the new coalition government.

      They won’t be anticipating any good poll results for a while, given they’ve largely been missing in action since the new government formed, overshadowed by a popular new prime minister enjoying a honeymoon with voters and the media. Compared to Labour, or even New Zealand First, the Greens have been relatively invisible – with very few announcements or positive headlines. James Shaw has all but disappeared. They would have expected his announcement of New Zealand’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 to have made a bigger splash, but it was largely overshadowed by Jacinda Ardern’s international debut.

      So why are the Greens out of the political spotlight? There are a few obvious answers.

      https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/11/22/62615/bryce-edwards-whats-happened-to-the-greens

      Never seen the flaws in Edwards’ political nous so well highlighted.

      Here’s a hint Bryce, it’s not about rockstars and spotlights.

      • ianmac 3.2.1

        Notice how Bryce puts the most negative spins/commentary first with any positives for the Left trailing?

        • marty mars 3.2.1.1

          Yep he is a not very useful idiot.

        • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.2.1.2

          So you’d have your positive traits forgotten because in an argument you’d lead with the best and finish with the worst? Your debating team must have really cleaned up

          • Keepcalmcarryon 3.2.1.2.1

            I always suspected you as a master debater, tuppence Shrewsbury

            • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.2.1.2.1.1

              Chortling over masturbation jokes behind your keyboard and your lame moniker? Sad

              • McFlock

                Keeping calm and carrying on is better than a two-penny jam biscuit.

                • Tuppence Shrewsbury

                  got the cushion? bought the tea towel? laughed at how original and daring you are for embracing an establishment motto that’s now been turned into a minor act of rebellion?

              • Keepcalmcarryon

                It’s as lame as thinking debating equates to the real world 🙂

                • Tuppence Shrewsbury

                  The structures of debate help in the real world. Most politicians of calibre debated at high school and know how to structure a proposal or argument.

                  And no, masturbation jokes are WAAAAAYYYY lamer than finding a use in an educational and intellectual challenge in the real world.

                  Doubling down on your lame joke with a lame comeback. really winning this debate aren’t you?

                  • Keepcalmcarryon

                    You are debating yourself tuppence, the stats in the OP speak for themselves.
                    I’m sure denial is a stage the right wing is still having to deal with I wish I was a better man and took no pleasure from it.
                    As you were.

          • weka 3.2.1.2.2

            MSM political news and coverage isn’t a debate, nor a competition. It’s meant to be reporting what is going on in the world and providing some context for that.

            • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.2.1.2.2.1

              the sentiment of your comment is correct and right. But prefacing the good things you are going to say with a few negatives is a classic tactic to accentuate the good things and bolster the significance of them. Bryce is hardly showing his right wing bias.

          • Philj 3.2.1.2.3

            Tuppence, you may not have realised, but journalism is not a debate. We are using decimal currency nowadays. The equivalent these days is,appropriately, nowt.

            • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.2.1.2.3.1

              Opinion writing is about presenting your proposal or view on the subject. I thought Bryce actually painted the greens in a positive light overall by the end of his article.

              Seeing as you are old enough to know imperial units as well as decimal, you should be old enough and wise enough to know the difference between a journalistic piece and an opinion piece.

      • patricia bremner 3.2.2

        So true. The man is very subtle in his bias usually, but obvious this time.

      • Matthew Whitehead 3.2.3

        Wow that take is dumb. The Greens’ brand is all about hard work over showboating, substance over polish, and staying out of the spotlight isn’t bad for that, especially after so much negative media during the campaign. Giving people time to cool off while taking their portfolios seriously is probably the best idea.

        I give Bryce a hard time on twitter from time to time, but he’s actually one of the better political commentators that gets into the MSM. That’s not a huge defense of him, I guess, but it is probably an indictment of others.

    • alwyn 3.3

      The fact is that it is not, as the person posting claims, the FIRST post election poll.
      The election was in September.
      The first poll was from 2 October to 15 October. It is there in the Roy Morgan link but it would have been a bit embarrassing to mention it.

      • weka 3.3.1

        Micky doesn’t do disingenuous, it’s a mistake.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 3.3.2

        Context: government formed: 19th October.

        They say incumbency is worth 5%. Nothing to disturb that theory here.

        Although I can understand it being a bit of a kick in the guts for Tanz et al.

  4. James 4

    I think hat NZFirst is the biggest loser in this. As part of the new government you would expect to see a bump but they have dropped a lot of their potential voters.

    Obv very early but I wouldn’t count of them being back next time.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 4.1

      That’s ok James, on this poll Labour and the Greens would have the numbers 😀

    • weka 4.2

      I have no problem with a L/G govt in 2020. Would be nice to have a bit more diversity. Whether NZF is here next time will depend on Peters. Doesn’t have much to to do with this poll though.

      btw, what you just wrote is pretty much exactly the line that was being used about the Greens before.

      • tracey 4.2.1

        James couldn’t bring himself to acknowledge the biggest loser is national in this poll…

        • James 4.2.1.1

          But they are not. NZFirst is. They by far have lost the largest %age of their vote.

          • Matthew Whitehead 4.2.1.1.1

            2% here or there for a medium party like the Greens or NZF is not great, but also not disastrous. The real problem for NZF is that if they don’t bounce back from this, they are within danger of falling below the threshold. (Stupidly, they don’t even support Labour’s stance of lowering it to 4%)

            As I point out elsewhere though, RM is one of the polls that under-polled NZF this election, so they are likely doing slightly better than 5%, but it’s hard to tell as RM is the only poll that releases regularly outside of the campaign season.

            • CLEANGREEN 4.2.1.1.1.1

              Same can be said about the National party?

              Everytime a National voter opens their mouths, the polll willl slide further so keep on talking.

          • tracey 4.2.1.1.2

            And yet, they are in government and the party that thinks it had some kind of backdoor mandate has dropped. National is the big loser, down 3.9% to 40.5%

            Ohhhh you’ve gone by percentage of lost votes. I see. Does that make you feel better?

    • Matthew Whitehead 4.3

      Sure, this will be the ones who thought that NZF could go with National dropping off. But barring any ethical scandals, and presuming the new government ends up working well, (which in my case isn’t a hypothetical- I expect Labour and the Greens will drag NZ First broadly in the right direction) I expect this to be the lowest they’ll dip throughout the first term.

      NZ First is likely to pick up some rural and regional voters off National if their slush fund actually delivers to the regions, and some of those lost voters might come back if they’re genuinely open to NZ First rather than simply National-bloc supporters who viewed Winston as a way to keep English honest.

      Also worth noting is that compared to both the overall trend and to the election result, RM underpolled NZ First, (this is the first election I’ve followed closely where anyone at all overpolled them, so this is actually a relevant statement to RM’s swing now) so I expect that they are probably doing on the high side of the margin of error.

      • tracey 4.3.1

        Do you know if it is correct that Federate farmers actually only represent about 15% of farmers? I heard this said after the Morrinsville exercise but cannot find any proof.

        • Matthew Whitehead 4.3.1.1

          Stats NZ says there were roughly 100,000 farms total in 2012. (I don’t know how they measure that are what counts as a farm, and this is me working backwards from knowing the total number of dairy farms and their percentage of total farms) The latest publicly available figures of Fed Farmers I could find from back in 2013 placed their total membership at 19,000, but their members who were actually farmers was estimated to be about 13,000. So yes, I would say 15% is likely a very fair estimate for the percentage of NZ farmers part of Fed Farmers.

          • tracey 4.3.1.1.1

            Thanks Matthew. I wonder how many kiwis realise that Fed farmers is a minority farmers lobby group?

    • tracey 4.4

      Be fair, second biggest loser “in this”. national are clearly first biggest loser in the poll 😉

    • Anne 4.5

      Most of that drop for NZ 1st will be from closet Nats who are pipped he didn’t go with the Nats. They’re better off without them now. They will pick up support from elsewhere.

      • David Mac 4.5.1

        I think you’re right Anne. Labour and the Greens are in the honeymoon suite and NZ First has pulled back due to those that voted for them under the assumption ‘There is no way Winnie will go left.’

      • CLEANGREEN 4.5.2

        Yes Anne NZF will gain after the “super leakgate” enquiry Winston is about to hold in Court 7th December when all the glam comes off Joyce/Bennnett/Tolley/ English when they release the source of the “Super leaks” then watch the rats leap off the gang plank of the leacky blue boat eh?

    • Me 4.6

      NZF probably lost the voters who thought they would go with National. If they had wanted that useless pack of pricks again they should have voted for them.
      Some will probably go back to Winnie when they see the sky doesn’t fall down.

    • infused 4.7

      Half of Winstons voters would be protesting National voters. So it was quite predictable. This will be the last NZ First will be in govt.

      • David Mac 4.7.1

        I’m not so sure, watching it unfold will be interesting. I think Nat huggers that voted for Winston did so because they liked NZ Firsts primary bottom-lines, not in protest of beige Bill offering more of the same.

        If Winston and crew kick goals on those platforms that are important to their voters, the points of difference from National, I think their support could easily return from the same place it always has, all over the political spectrum.

        NZ First has never been a stronger position to influence outcomes.

      • CLEANGREEN 4.7.2

        Bullshit ‘Infused’ your’e ‘confused.’

    • Muttonbird 4.8

      James is wrong on all his picks so there’s that for NZF to be happy about.

    • Tricledrown 4.9

      That would leave National no coalition options stranded 10% short of power.
      So where did the 30% of Winston’s National leaning supporters go?
      National must be worried no friends.

  5. Matthew Whitehead 5

    I don’t know, by Bill English standards, 40% is a ridiculously strong result. 😉 If he starts falling below 30%, then he’s back in familiar territory from way back when he was up against Clark. (I expect this may in fact happen- if a new government coalition still getting its legs under it can get a 5% overall boost for it and its support partner, that suggests people are actually liking the promise of what’s happening. National’s best strategy then is to paint them as all promise with no chance of delivery, and to take every chance to sabotage them they can get, which seems to be the way they’re going. It’s not a good option though, historically Labour dramatically outperforms National governments on almost every metric)

    The real disaster for the right is that if this new polling normal isn’t just a honeymoon and it can be worked on for the left to get an even better result, this suggests not only a second term, but a second term where Labour and the Greens can go into coalition instead of Labour and New Zealand First. They’ll be crossing their fingers that this is just honeymoon polling, and reminding themselves furiously that the Roy Morgan is the public poll that’s most friendly to the Left.

    • bwaghorn 5.1

      English is the mats Goff no one wants his job hell have it till the next election unless he decides to go

      • Matthew Whitehead 5.1.1

        Oh, I think at least Collins would take that poisoned chalice and drink deep and long.

  6. The decrypter 6

    A very good result. From the amount of negative /anti new govt callers on talk back radio I am surprised somewhat. No doubt the likes of james will think it is perhaps a rouge poll or something. Looking forward to the next poll.

    • garibaldi 6.1

      Yes it is a rouge poll, being slightly red.

      • patricia bremner 6.1.1

        This is great.

        You would imagine with all the negative vibes recently from every national party mouth piece and MSM, past ministers full of doom and gloom, and American puff pieces painting NZ as doomed, it could have been awful.

        I think most people now think national et al just lies and makes shit up!!

        People see people as front and centre for this government and they want kindness.

        Winston has been deferential and has paid Jacinda the respect for her rightfully won role.

        Like Andrew Little who is much admired for his decision, in time I think Winston will be viewed in the same way.

        As people see the changes begin to improve lives, over the next while it can only get better for the coalition.

        • CLEANGREEN 6.1.1.1

          100% bang on there.

          I am convinced also when Winston rings out the national; leakers in court on the 7th DFecember we will see four of five lying toads sitting there in court saying,
          I see no evil.
          I hear no evil.
          I say no evil.

          Then we will see some fireworks come out of Collins/bennett’s/Enliish/ joyes.
          Tolleys mouths before they are fined heaps for illegally leaking personal damaging details to destroy a political candidate.

          That will be well worth taking the day off to watch it all unfold.

    • James 6.2

      Your ongoing fascination with me continued huh?

      Anyhow. Nope unlike thouse on here – I do not normally yell rouge poll if there is a result I don’t personally agree with.

      • The decrypter 6.2.1

        james, I’m not fascinated by you, your love is with another. Hint –Zip it –? No I see you as my Litmus paper, A sort of troll Litmus tester to see what the present tory state of mind is. Thanks anyway james.

      • garibaldi 6.2.2

        Rogue vs rouge. Look it up if you can’t spell.

      • patricia bremner 6.2.3

        James your ego knows no bounds. Shame man shame! It aint all about you.

        • james 6.2.3.1

          Indeed – but is you look at decryptors post – he frequently refers to what I may think on a subject – just as he did today. So – yeah – that kinda makes it about me?

          “No doubt the likes of james will think ..”

          • Drowsy M. Kram 6.2.3.1.1

            http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/fascinated

            If you’re comfortable with what you interpret to be the ‘fascination’ of others posting here, then why raise it? Realistically, it’s unlikely that those taking you’re name in vain are actually fascinated by you, but whatever floats your boat.

            “the likes of James” = ‘James and his ilk‘, so clearly not all about you.

            • james 6.2.3.1.1.1

              Drowsy M. Kram

              Drowsy by name and nature – read the entire three line post :

              “but is you look at decryptors post – he frequently refers to what I may think on a subject “

              • Drowsy M. Kram

                Another personal attack – how ‘fascinating’.

                National reverts to type

                • james

                  Not a personal attack. I was replying to a comment that was particularly unpleasant and calling them out on it.

                  But here – try it – do you think that this comment is acceptable?

                  Jacinda Ardern. An ignorant ,incompetent, immature boring turd of a woman. I do wish she would just fuck right off and when she gets there fuck off some more! ?

                  No – of course it is not acceptable – just as it wasnt when it was said about Bill English in the thread you are referring to.

                  Perhaps – if you had the class to pull people up when they spoke like that also – then the world would be a better place.

                  • Robert Guyton

                    aaaaaah I see what you did there .. Saying offensive things under the guise of “I’m not saying this, but…”.
                    Im (sic) sure you thought that was very clever.

                  • james

                    See if you can work out the thread – I know its a little complicated – but hang in there you will work it out.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram

                    James,

                    What was the intent of your personal ‘Drowsy M. Kram: drowsy by name and drowsy by nature’ comment?

                    Attempts to remote-diagnose narcolepsy aside, why would you make this uninformed personal attack?

                    I’m inviting (not asking) you to spell this out for me (and others), because I’d prefer not to misinterpret your (or anyone else’s) comments. Blogs bring out the worst in some.

                    “A substantial fascinator is a fascinator of some size or bulk.” – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascinator

          • Robert Guyton 6.2.3.1.2

            “No doubt the likes of james will think ..”
            Of course, such a claim is nonsense.

      • tracey 6.2.4

        No, instead you switch attention to NZF’s drop rather than the drop of the party who claimed some imaginary mandate to rule because of 44.4% of the vote… which has dropped further.

        • james 6.2.4.1

          poor attempt Anne.

          Im simply commented on the party that lost the greatest %age of points in the poll against last time.

          Who BTW according to this poll are would be close to being out of parliament.

          As opposed to pointing out that despite not being in government – that National still out poll any other party (and yes I know it is not FFP).

          • tracey 6.2.4.1.1

            close to out of parliament… like the greens you mean? So close to being out of parliament they ended up in Government.

            well, we will see how far their moaning takes them… 3.9% in a month.

  7. The decrypter 7

    opps james has beaten me too it –darn!!

  8. veutoviper 8

    The first post election poll results are out.

    I also thought that there had not been a RM Poll since the election, but in fact on Oct 29 Roy Morgan issued the results of a poll taken in early/mid Oct after the election but prior to Winston Peters announcing NZF would go with Labour to form a coalition government.

    I note that in the post Mickey Savage compares the latest poll results to the actual election results.

    For clarity, the results referred to in the actual latest Nov poll results in statements such as “Government was 54.5% (up 6% since early October)” are the earlier RM Oct poll results. I was confused until I realised this.

    These Oct results showed a slight fall off for Labour, Grens and NZF and a slight rise for National. The Nov results therefore show a good recovery from these results for Labour, Greens and NZF.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7379-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2017-201710270443

    [And just for comparison if anyone is interested, here are the results of the last Roy Morgan poll before the election (23 Sept)
    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7339-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-10-2017-201709151750%5D

  9. Matthew Whitehead 9

    For those wanting some extra data:

    If an election were held with the party vote resembling these numbers, here is what Parliament would look like:

    Labour: 50 seats
    Greens: 12
    NZF: 6
    ACT: 1 (If they win Epsom, which is a pretty safe client seat for National right now)
    National: 51

    Total seats: 120, Majority = 61

    This would give the balance of power to the Greens, and Labour would need either them or National to agree with them to pass legislation.

    If the MP win an electorate in 2020, it would look like this:

    Labour: 49
    Greens: 12
    NZF: 6
    Māori: 2
    ACT: 1
    National: 50

    There’s no significant change to the balance of power in this situation, however Labour could not afford to lose any by-elections.
    Total seats: 120, Majority = 61

    In terms of the margin of error, here are the likely ranges of support for the significant parties, rounded to the nearest quarter of a percent:
    ACT: about 0.25%-0.75% (my estimate formula doesn’t deal well with results as small as ACT’s, so I’m being charitable here)
    National: 37.5%-43.5%
    NZF: 3.75%-6.25%
    Māori: 0.75%-2.25%
    Labour: 36.5%-42.5%
    Greens: 8%-11.75%
    (Significant = some realistic route into Parliament. Mostly, I’m simply excluding TOP, because they’re not within the margin of error of the threshold yet)

    I ran some quick simulations assuming a random statistical deviation on a normal curve from the Roy Morgan poll, assuming ACT wins its electorate and the MP has a 50-50 chance of winning one, and here’s my results: (because this is quick, there are only 500 iterations, so it could be a little inaccurate. I usually did between 1,000 and 2,000 iterations in the election campaign, and I’ll probably do another 1,500 later and post it to Twitter)

    There is a just-over-even chance NZF drops below threshold (about 51%,) but polling at 5%, this is simply random noise, and the odds are likely to be even as to whether they drop out at such a result. (in reality, they’ll be slightly under or over, but unless someone has the unrounded figures I can’t simulate a probability for you all)

    There is no scenario in which National will govern with the support of ACT on these results unless this is a rogue poll. There are also no scenarios where NZF can defect to National and create a government with them and ACT without additional help.

    There is about a 1.6% chance that if the Māori Party gets back in and NZF defects on a result like this one, that they could have the numbers to both choose to support National and change the Government back, if they can work with ACT. This requires a simultaneously strong result for all three parties with list seats as well, so it would be the ultimate long-shot coalition.

    There’s about a 10.6% chance that the Māori Party could be an alternative support partner for Labour, allowing them to ditch New Zealand First.

    There’s a whopping 87.2% chance of an outright Labour-Green coalition government, if Labour chooses to have one.

    Overall it’s a very strong result for the Left, as you’d expect with a new government.

  10. mauī 10

    Labour… Labour! Labour! Labour!

  11. mac1 11

    The confidence rating at its highest point for eight ‘long years’ is an important figure.

    Two thirds of the country say the L/G/NZF govt is heading in the right direction.

    At least 25% of those who voted National in the election say so!

    Must be the Christmas spirit. Cheers!

    • mac1 11.1

      From the Roy Morgan poll release.

      “Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, says Jacinda Ardern has brought a new level of confidence to New Zealanders with the generational change she represents promising more engagement with solving pressing issues including Homelessness & Child poverty.”

      On the subject of homelessness, Ardern said the biggest failure of capitalism was on this issue. http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/10/homelessness-proves-capitalism-is-a-blatant-failure-jacinda-ardern.html

      This article’s headline actually misrepresented Ardern’s position.
      “Asked directly if capitalism had failed low-income Kiwis, Ms Ardern was unequivocal.

      “If you have hundreds of thousands of children living in homes without enough to survive, that’s a blatant failure. What else could you describe it as?”

      Forbes had this misrepresentation of Ardern’s position. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jareddillian/2017/11/20/new-zealand-an-economic-success-story-loses-its-way/#206307d35f7a

      “Ardern has brought youthful energy to New Zealand politics, but her scary rhetoric during the campaign (like calling capitalism a “blatant failure”) has some people wondering if she will take the country back to the bad old days of the 70s and early 80s.”

      As the Newshub quote shows she was referring specifically to “hundreds of thousands of children living in homes without enough to survive” as a failure of the market in NZ.

      A businessman I was talking to yesterday reads Forbes. He told me Forbes said that Ardern was against capitalism.

      No wonder that business is unhappy if its advice comes from misrepresentations in financial circles such as Forbes magazine or Newshub headlines.

      “Forbes is a leading source for reliable news” says Google.

      • Anne 11.1.1

        An excellent example of how the international corporate conglomerates and their puppet governments manipulate the masses in accordance with their own self-serving political ideologies and rabid greed.

        • CLEANGREEN 11.1.2.1

          Yes saveNZ I posted on that blog, Chris did welll there, as Jacinda is slowly winning over the whole country now.

      • Matthew Whitehead 11.1.3

        Roy Morgan is fine at polling, and they should stick to it. Their stupid attempts to analyze the determinants of their poll results from over in Australia are laughable and should be ignored. There was one time they had a rogue poll that showed National unreasonable high and tried to explain it with one of National’s fluff policy announcements on housing.

        • mac1 11.1.3.1

          Matthew, what don’t you like about Michele Levine’s determinants- generational change, promises of engagement, or the issues of homelessness and poverty?

          A better and more fruitful discussion than your blanket condemnation of RM’s commentary based on one incident.

          • Matthew Whitehead 11.1.3.1.1

            One incident? This is an ongoing trend, mac. They just throw whatever they can find up against the wall when analysing their polls- sometimes they happen to get it right because there are obvious . It’s desperate, and they’d be better just sticking with describing their poll instead, especially as it’s probably intended as a publicity thing.

            Generational change is likely wrong: Ardern didn’t secure a huge youth vote, and the arrest to its decline is most likely due to the Electoral Commission’s efforts, not Ardern being comparatively youthful for a PM.

            Housing and poverty, again, are issues so obvious that you can’t even miss them from Australia.

            Overall, it’s a facile analysis as expected.

            • mac1 11.1.3.1.1.1

              Thanks for your reply, Matthew. I just needed to test your evidence. Too much argument based on one incident as perceived becoming blanket rubbishing. I am glad that your analysis was deeper. 😉

        • Bearded Git 11.1.3.2

          +100 couldn’t agree more Mathew

      • mac1 11.1.4

        Further to this rubbish article from Forbes.

        “Others pointed out basic factual errors in Mr Dillian’s piece. He got the date Ms Ardern became Prime Minister wrong, and claimed a quote from her first interview as Prime Minister-elect actually came during the election campaign, which had finished a month earlier.”

        http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/11/steven-joyce-brushes-off-controversial-forbes-article.html

        “Forbes is a leading source for reliable news” says Google.

  12. Psych nurse 12

    Headline news on MSM.Not.

  13. Ad 13

    Labour will struggle to retain power in 2020 if NZF dies.

    • adam 13.1

      Shouldn’t we face the elephant in the room – If WInston dies…

      • weka 13.1.1

        “if”. Pretty sure he’s not immortal 😉 but for decorum’s sake how about when Winston retires? Worth planning for. I’m guessing Labour’s plan is to be a bigger party and not need NZF. I’d prefer to see better resilience. Another smaller left wing party would be good.

      • savenz 13.1.2

        If Tracy Martin takes over when Winston retires, NZ First will survive because she is very outspoken and practical and popular. She is the sort, rural folks in particular, like. I suspect though there is a bit of internal jockeying and she has been marginalised a bit. If they keep Tracy Martin in a prominent position, (hopefully Winston’s replacement), NZ First will survive post Peters and not turn into ACT.

        • garibaldi 13.1.2.1

          I agree with you savenz. Tracy is their best bet vs Ron or Shane.

        • tracey 13.1.2.2

          A woman in charge of NZF? Shall we take a bet?

        • Cinny 13.1.2.3

          Yes please re Tracey, she’s all shades of awesome.

        • mary_a 13.1.2.4

          Agree savenz (13.1.2). Tracey Martin or Ron Mark would keep NZF together to challenge future elections. However, if Winston retires and Shane Jones becomes leader, then it will be definitely goodnight NZF! Jones’ grubby history still sticks in people’s minds!

    • Matthew Whitehead 13.2

      I assume you’re building in a drop in polling from this result? Because on this one they can govern even if NZF falls below threshold.

      • Ad 13.2.1

        Yes.
        This bump is rainbow dust material.

        • Matthew Whitehead 13.2.1.1

          I would have said the support is incredibly soft but it is there to be secured if Labour and the Greens can get on their feet and start running, but that is probably a similar guess as to what’s going on.

          That said, the opposition doesn’t seem to have any idea what’s going on, so I don’t see them getting any traction either, and without any credible parties other than National on the right, the absolute best outcome for National is that any bled support simply goes into the non-voter column rather than to Govt parties.

        • CLEANGREEN 13.2.1.2

          Ad,

          Nationals drop is angel dust?

          I hope they keep falliing till they dont couiunt any more the grubby cretins.

  14. savenz 14

    Amazing what happens when the media are not able to print propaganda day and night.

  15. Puckish Rogue 15

    Well this is obviously a (Puckish) rogue poll so not really much to talk about 🙂

    But seriously while this probably due to the election win bounce effect it’ll do good for the government

    • Muttonbird 15.1

      It’s more than that. It’s the legitimacy of government where more people support the authority at the time. National are falling to their natural position right now – it just depends on how far they will fall. Somewhere in the mid 30s probably.

      • CLEANGREEN 15.1.1

        Muttonbird,
        I’d say Natrional will fall to under 30% probably 27% before mid next year.

  16. Peter 16

    The coalition rules!

  17. mary_a 17

    Natz will be spitting tacks over this poll, to the point I’d say Joyce will be busy drumming up propaganda to hurl at government for msm to publish as breaking headline news! Watch this space ….

    • CLEANGREEN 17.1

      maryA,

      Yes, Joyce is already out there since monday hugging the madia on tvone thjree and radio NZ this week so he is showing the strains of defeat and i love it all now since his propaganda bullshit doesnt work any more. Ha ha ha ah ah ah

  18. Tanz 18

    Actually this is good news for National; Winston First has lost votes, and are slumping near the 5 per cent threshold. National are still ahead as the winner of the poll. Most of all though, Roy Morgan always favours the left and is the least accurate of all the pollsters, always. A new government should be leading in the polls, this is not the case. Go Nats. Looking forward to the far more reliable Colmar Brunton poll result. With all the negative press Labour have been getting already ( trainwreck Kelvin, Ardern upsetting Aussie, Joyce being proven right on the billion dollar tax hole etc), I don’t think National will be losing any sleep. Opposition for them is a doddle so far, Labour have been handing them the ammo from
    day one. It’s all been highly entertaining, but bad for the economic and bright future of NZ. Hey, but we won’t blame Winston…

    • McFlock 18.1

      lol
      yup, billy no-mates is looking like a good bet today! /sarc

    • Matthew Whitehead 18.2

      oh yeah a dip that’s well over the margin of error is good news ROFL.

      Try again. NZ First was getting a dip in post-election polling no matter who they coalesced with.

  19. Grantoc 19

    I think that the only value of this one poll at this time is it’s general indicative nature.

    Putting this poll into context, it does need to be remembered that it, and its predecessor are the only polls that have been released since the election. In addition the RM poll has a reputation for being volatile. Before drawing any concrete conclusions about how the parties are trending, I’d want to have fed into the mix the results of other polls.

    Nevertheless there are one or two interesting trends that may be developing.

    For me they are:

    1. Labour and the Greens are gaining in popularity and National is slipping. No real surprise in that; its to be expected with a new government. Its possibly a bit surprising that Labour and the Greens are not in an even stronger position relative to National given that they are getting most of the media publicity and they are in their honeymoon period as a new government.

    2. NZ First is losing support. This may be as a result of entering into coalition with Labour. It will be interesting to see if this continues, and if it does how they, especially Peters, handle it.

    Its very early days. For me it won’t be until next year when there have been, presumably, other polling done that I will be more confident about how the parties are trending.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 19.1

      “2. NZ First is losing support. This may be as a result of entering into coalition with Labour.”

      It may well be. Impossible to know what NZ1st would be polling now if they had done a deal with the Nats, but fun to speculate.

      Similarly, what might the Green % support look like now if they had decided to back National rather than Labour/NZ1st?

      Very early days, as you say.

    • Matthew Whitehead 19.2

      I’m still trying to figure out where this “reputation for volatility” thing came from. CB is actually a more volatile poll than RM in terms of its frequency of obviously rogue results, and RM actually did reasonably well on predicting the outcome given that they didn’t throw in extra polls during the last month like CB and RR did. (CB and RR were similarly out to RM if you take their polls from the same timeframe and compare them to the election result- in fact, CB was even MORE friendly to Labour than RM was, which is nuts because CB is usually the “nat-friendly,” poll, and probably a reflection that RM’s mobile-polling approach is a little more agile and responsive to change than CB’s landline-only one is. RM’s poll has similar issues to CB fundamentally of course, as RR has shown that the partial-panel approach is actually even more agile and better at catching trends like NZ First’s late resurgence much more accurately than traditional phone-based approaches)

      I think you’re roughly right on the analysis though. I expect most of this is down to change of government optimism and New Zealand First losing supporters who wanted them to coalesce with National.

  20. Michael 20

    I see the Nats’ holding up remarkably well after their political enemies out-manouevered them. OTOH, this probably marks the apogee of Labour’s popularity (and its coalition and support partners). It will be downhill all the way unless the Government maintains the initiative. So far, its record is mixed but, overall, a bit better than I expected (I had, and continue to have, very low expectations of them).

  21. Sparky 21

    Lets see what happens if they push through the CP(TPP). Should be interesting. Suffice to say most new govts do well until they inevitably stuff it up……

  22. Tanz 22

    NZ First will have lost support also for siding with the election losers rather than the winner. Many will see this govt as not ‘of the people, for the people’, despite the legality rubbish of MMP. The first time we have had a govt that is not the result of a clear election result. (but due to seven per cent NZ first, Mr ‘ I will talk first with the party who polls highest)…

    According to some Nat MPs people are very unhappy that the Nats are not in power, when they received by far the most votes. Roy Morgan don’t even poll older people, that speaks volumes in itself. National won’t need mates come the next election and Labour won’t have NZ First to rely on (they will slip below the threshold, probably by miles). Early days, but already, this govt does not look prepared and are spending up large. Roll on Colmar Brunton, they do the most accurate polls. Bet they give a very different result, and I hear National are very happy with their own internal polling.

    • McFlock 22.1

      Hmmm.
      Don’t they say something like “winners have lots of friends”? If the nats won the election, why don’t they have any friends? Wouldn’t they be able to get together with their mates and form a government?

    • Those ‘many’ are the authoritarian type who like democracy when it goes their way and don’t like it when it doesn’t. When it doesn’t they’ll invent all sorts of bullshit about it not being right and they’ll even say that the results weren’t democratic despite them being fully democratic.

      Just like you’ve been doing ever since NATIONAL LOST.

    • Oh, my aching sides – National would have won if it wasn’t for this “legality rubbish.” Fucking legal system, always screwing things up for the right!

      • Anne 22.3.1

        Tanz is our resident comic. I wouldn’t miss her missives for all the tea in China. She makes my day. Off to make a cuppa tea.

    • Matthew Whitehead 22.4

      A higher percentage of voters voted for this government than voted for the 2014 National government, so pull the other one.

      Roy Morgan does poll a representative cross-section of the country, Tanz. All polling biases towards older voters- even internet polling. RM likely has to keep ringing to get to enough younger respondents. Roy Morgan does tend to veer a little left compared to other polls, but not by more than a couple percentage points.

  23. Tanz 23

    National received 200,000 more votes than Labour and the Greens combined, and hold ten more seats. How is this a loss? It’s only due to Winston Peters, not due to actually losing the election. Nothing can change that, and National are still polling as the most preferred large party. Their internal polling is very robust. A new govt should be leading in the polls, but as this is not the preferred govt of the people, they are not. It is something of a Clayton’s win. Labour chosen by Peters rather than actually winning the election. Is Labour going to go out to win the next election, or to be chosen by Peters again (he will go below the threshold, already has)?. Even Arden phoned English on the night, admitting that National had the most votes. She knows the truth, at least!
    National almost got enough votes to govern alone this time around, it is just a matter of time. This election got stolen and the wider electorate knows it. Peters doesn’t care, that’s true, he is backtracking on almost every pre-election promise. He sold out integrity for massive baubles. However, he won’t be kingmaker again, and for Labour to govern next time, they will actually have to win the election. Good luck at that, with the Nats constantly ahead in all dependable polls. And as things turn to custard, (which Winston even predicted) they will pick up tons more votes.

    • Ed 23.1

      Do you understand MMP?

      • NewsFlash 23.1.1

        Obviously an older person that hasn’t caught up with MMP after twenty yrs, and when you consider the number of times National have governed with a minority over the last 80 yrs, their comments are ridicules.

        The hard core right always vote on ideology over performance, no matter how bad they are.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 23.2

      I bet their internal polling is pretty legal 😆

  24. NewsFlash 24

    For the first time in a decade, NZ finally has a real LEADER, not surprised the surge in the polls, both the previous PMs were nothing more than keeping the seat warm.

    There is small number of very irate RWs making a shed load off negative noise to try and undermine the new Govt assisted in some aspects by a partisan media, I really feel for them in their hour of discomfort.(sarc)

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