Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour and Greens surge as National flounders

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, November 23rd, 2017 - 156 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, Politics, polls - Tags: ,

The first post election poll results are out. And subject to all the usual caveats I suspect those of us on the left will be quietly smiling.

The poll reports that Labour is at 39.5%, up 2.6% from the election results. The Greens have also surged, up 3.7% to 10%. NZ First has gone backward to 5% from 7.2%. But National is the big loser, down 3.9% to 40.5%.

And confidence is at an 8 year high.

Ardern’s rise to the top job has seen an unprecedented spike in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – with 66.5% (up 8% since October) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ contributing to a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 146.5 – the highest in nearly 8 years.”

National will not like this.  Dropping below 40% will see leader contenders sharpening their knives.

156 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour and Greens surge as National flounders ”

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  1. garibaldi 1
    23 November 2017 at 7:11 am

    Well, well, well, who would have thunk it? Keep diving National, you have worked hard to be a bunch of negative bastards. You deserve this reward.

    • Rāwiri 1.1
      23 November 2017 at 7:27 am

      Love it, couldn’t have said it better myself.

    • gsays 1.2
      23 November 2017 at 9:20 am

      Roger that garibaldi, clearly the Tories need to be more aggressive, negative and cynical.
      Get the crusher onto this immediately.

    • patricia bremner 1.3
      23 November 2017 at 10:51 am

      garabaldi, I couldn’t agree more!!

    • Cinny 1.4
      23 November 2017 at 2:01 pm

      Well said Garibaldi

    • mary_a 1.5
      23 November 2017 at 2:40 pm

      @ garibaldi (1) … Spot on there.

    • CLEANGREEN 1.6
      23 November 2017 at 7:07 pm

      Well said Garibaldi;

      I couldn’t have said it better, so is that why Stupid steven joyce has filled the media screen with his ugly face then?

      Every day he is on channel one, three, or radio NZ saying how silly labour is but he will need to change his tack now that this poll shows he failed his own party, ha ha ha.

  2. North 2
    23 November 2017 at 7:23 am

    “but but but born to rule…….” Weep.

  3. One Anonymous Bloke 3
    23 November 2017 at 7:26 am

    It’s a single poll result.

    Not much use for anything other than teasing wingnuts 🙂

    • ScottGN 3.1
      23 November 2017 at 7:35 am

      Worth it for that alone…eh?

    • weka 3.2
      23 November 2017 at 7:51 am

      and others 😉

      Bryce Edwards 17 hours ago,

      The Greens will be looking to the next opinion poll with trepidation. Internal polling by other parties is rumoured to show both the Greens and New Zealand First have dropped in the aftermath of the election and formation of the new coalition government.

      They won’t be anticipating any good poll results for a while, given they’ve largely been missing in action since the new government formed, overshadowed by a popular new prime minister enjoying a honeymoon with voters and the media. Compared to Labour, or even New Zealand First, the Greens have been relatively invisible – with very few announcements or positive headlines. James Shaw has all but disappeared. They would have expected his announcement of New Zealand’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050 to have made a bigger splash, but it was largely overshadowed by Jacinda Ardern’s international debut.

      So why are the Greens out of the political spotlight? There are a few obvious answers.

      https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/11/22/62615/bryce-edwards-whats-happened-to-the-greens

      Never seen the flaws in Edwards’ political nous so well highlighted.

      Here’s a hint Bryce, it’s not about rockstars and spotlights.

      • ianmac 3.2.1
        23 November 2017 at 9:13 am

        Notice how Bryce puts the most negative spins/commentary first with any positives for the Left trailing?

        • marty mars 3.2.1.1
          23 November 2017 at 10:15 am

          Yep he is a not very useful idiot.

        • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.2.1.2
          23 November 2017 at 10:57 am

          So you’d have your positive traits forgotten because in an argument you’d lead with the best and finish with the worst? Your debating team must have really cleaned up

          • Keepcalmcarryon 3.2.1.2.1
            23 November 2017 at 12:19 pm

            I always suspected you as a master debater, tuppence Shrewsbury

            • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.2.1.2.1.1
              23 November 2017 at 12:33 pm

              Chortling over masturbation jokes behind your keyboard and your lame moniker? Sad

              • McFlock …
                23 November 2017 at 2:45 pm

                Keeping calm and carrying on is better than a two-penny jam biscuit.

                • Tuppence Shrewsbury …
                  23 November 2017 at 3:48 pm

                  got the cushion? bought the tea towel? laughed at how original and daring you are for embracing an establishment motto that’s now been turned into a minor act of rebellion?

              • Keepcalmcarryon …
                24 November 2017 at 7:43 am

                It’s as lame as thinking debating equates to the real world 🙂

                • Tuppence Shrewsbury …
                  24 November 2017 at 9:25 am

                  The structures of debate help in the real world. Most politicians of calibre debated at high school and know how to structure a proposal or argument.

                  And no, masturbation jokes are WAAAAAYYYY lamer than finding a use in an educational and intellectual challenge in the real world.

                  Doubling down on your lame joke with a lame comeback. really winning this debate aren’t you?

                  • Keepcalmcarryon …
                    25 November 2017 at 12:20 am

                    You are debating yourself tuppence, the stats in the OP speak for themselves.
                    I’m sure denial is a stage the right wing is still having to deal with I wish I was a better man and took no pleasure from it.
                    As you were.

          • weka 3.2.1.2.2
            23 November 2017 at 2:50 pm

            MSM political news and coverage isn’t a debate, nor a competition. It’s meant to be reporting what is going on in the world and providing some context for that.

            • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.2.1.2.2.1
              23 November 2017 at 3:46 pm

              the sentiment of your comment is correct and right. But prefacing the good things you are going to say with a few negatives is a classic tactic to accentuate the good things and bolster the significance of them. Bryce is hardly showing his right wing bias.

          • Philj 3.2.1.2.3
            23 November 2017 at 7:09 pm

            Tuppence, you may not have realised, but journalism is not a debate. We are using decimal currency nowadays. The equivalent these days is,appropriately, nowt.

            • Tuppence Shrewsbury 3.2.1.2.3.1
              24 November 2017 at 9:28 am

              Opinion writing is about presenting your proposal or view on the subject. I thought Bryce actually painted the greens in a positive light overall by the end of his article.

              Seeing as you are old enough to know imperial units as well as decimal, you should be old enough and wise enough to know the difference between a journalistic piece and an opinion piece.

      • patricia bremner 3.2.2
        23 November 2017 at 10:54 am

        So true. The man is very subtle in his bias usually, but obvious this time.

      • Matthew Whitehead 3.2.3
        23 November 2017 at 6:36 pm

        Wow that take is dumb. The Greens’ brand is all about hard work over showboating, substance over polish, and staying out of the spotlight isn’t bad for that, especially after so much negative media during the campaign. Giving people time to cool off while taking their portfolios seriously is probably the best idea.

        I give Bryce a hard time on twitter from time to time, but he’s actually one of the better political commentators that gets into the MSM. That’s not a huge defense of him, I guess, but it is probably an indictment of others.

    • alwyn 3.3
      23 November 2017 at 12:19 pm

      The fact is that it is not, as the person posting claims, the FIRST post election poll.
      The election was in September.
      The first poll was from 2 October to 15 October. It is there in the Roy Morgan link but it would have been a bit embarrassing to mention it.

      • weka 3.3.1
        23 November 2017 at 2:52 pm

        Micky doesn’t do disingenuous, it’s a mistake.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 3.3.2
        23 November 2017 at 7:00 pm

        Context: government formed: 19th October.

        They say incumbency is worth 5%. Nothing to disturb that theory here.

        Although I can understand it being a bit of a kick in the guts for Tanz et al.

  4. James 4
    23 November 2017 at 7:39 am

    I think hat NZFirst is the biggest loser in this. As part of the new government you would expect to see a bump but they have dropped a lot of their potential voters.

    Obv very early but I wouldn’t count of them being back next time.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 4.1
      23 November 2017 at 7:41 am

      That’s ok James, on this poll Labour and the Greens would have the numbers 😀

    • weka 4.2
      23 November 2017 at 7:45 am

      I have no problem with a L/G govt in 2020. Would be nice to have a bit more diversity. Whether NZF is here next time will depend on Peters. Doesn’t have much to to do with this poll though.

      btw, what you just wrote is pretty much exactly the line that was being used about the Greens before.

      • tracey 4.2.1
        23 November 2017 at 8:14 am

        James couldn’t bring himself to acknowledge the biggest loser is national in this poll…

        • James 4.2.1.1
          23 November 2017 at 8:23 am

          But they are not. NZFirst is. They by far have lost the largest %age of their vote.

          • Matthew Whitehead 4.2.1.1.1
            23 November 2017 at 8:34 am

            2% here or there for a medium party like the Greens or NZF is not great, but also not disastrous. The real problem for NZF is that if they don’t bounce back from this, they are within danger of falling below the threshold. (Stupidly, they don’t even support Labour’s stance of lowering it to 4%)

            As I point out elsewhere though, RM is one of the polls that under-polled NZF this election, so they are likely doing slightly better than 5%, but it’s hard to tell as RM is the only poll that releases regularly outside of the campaign season.

            • CLEANGREEN 4.2.1.1.1.1
              23 November 2017 at 7:58 pm

              Same can be said about the National party?

              Everytime a National voter opens their mouths, the polll willl slide further so keep on talking.

          • tracey 4.2.1.1.2
            23 November 2017 at 11:54 am

            And yet, they are in government and the party that thinks it had some kind of backdoor mandate has dropped. National is the big loser, down 3.9% to 40.5%

            Ohhhh you’ve gone by percentage of lost votes. I see. Does that make you feel better?

    • Matthew Whitehead 4.3
      23 November 2017 at 7:45 am

      Sure, this will be the ones who thought that NZF could go with National dropping off. But barring any ethical scandals, and presuming the new government ends up working well, (which in my case isn’t a hypothetical- I expect Labour and the Greens will drag NZ First broadly in the right direction) I expect this to be the lowest they’ll dip throughout the first term.

      NZ First is likely to pick up some rural and regional voters off National if their slush fund actually delivers to the regions, and some of those lost voters might come back if they’re genuinely open to NZ First rather than simply National-bloc supporters who viewed Winston as a way to keep English honest.

      Also worth noting is that compared to both the overall trend and to the election result, RM underpolled NZ First, (this is the first election I’ve followed closely where anyone at all overpolled them, so this is actually a relevant statement to RM’s swing now) so I expect that they are probably doing on the high side of the margin of error.

      • tracey 4.3.1
        23 November 2017 at 8:15 am

        Do you know if it is correct that Federate farmers actually only represent about 15% of farmers? I heard this said after the Morrinsville exercise but cannot find any proof.

        • Matthew Whitehead 4.3.1.1
          23 November 2017 at 8:29 am

          Stats NZ says there were roughly 100,000 farms total in 2012. (I don’t know how they measure that are what counts as a farm, and this is me working backwards from knowing the total number of dairy farms and their percentage of total farms) The latest publicly available figures of Fed Farmers I could find from back in 2013 placed their total membership at 19,000, but their members who were actually farmers was estimated to be about 13,000. So yes, I would say 15% is likely a very fair estimate for the percentage of NZ farmers part of Fed Farmers.

          • tracey 4.3.1.1.1
            23 November 2017 at 11:52 am

            Thanks Matthew. I wonder how many kiwis realise that Fed farmers is a minority farmers lobby group?

    • tracey 4.4
      23 November 2017 at 8:13 am

      Be fair, second biggest loser “in this”. national are clearly first biggest loser in the poll 😉

    • Anne 4.5
      23 November 2017 at 9:17 am

      Most of that drop for NZ 1st will be from closet Nats who are pipped he didn’t go with the Nats. They’re better off without them now. They will pick up support from elsewhere.

      • David Mac 4.5.1
        23 November 2017 at 10:12 am

        I think you’re right Anne. Labour and the Greens are in the honeymoon suite and NZ First has pulled back due to those that voted for them under the assumption ‘There is no way Winnie will go left.’

      • CLEANGREEN 4.5.2
        23 November 2017 at 8:20 pm

        Yes Anne NZF will gain after the “super leakgate” enquiry Winston is about to hold in Court 7th December when all the glam comes off Joyce/Bennnett/Tolley/ English when they release the source of the “Super leaks” then watch the rats leap off the gang plank of the leacky blue boat eh?

    • Me 4.6
      23 November 2017 at 12:14 pm

      NZF probably lost the voters who thought they would go with National. If they had wanted that useless pack of pricks again they should have voted for them.
      Some will probably go back to Winnie when they see the sky doesn’t fall down.

    • infused 4.7
      23 November 2017 at 12:57 pm

      Half of Winstons voters would be protesting National voters. So it was quite predictable. This will be the last NZ First will be in govt.

      • David Mac 4.7.1
        23 November 2017 at 2:29 pm

        I’m not so sure, watching it unfold will be interesting. I think Nat huggers that voted for Winston did so because they liked NZ Firsts primary bottom-lines, not in protest of beige Bill offering more of the same.

        If Winston and crew kick goals on those platforms that are important to their voters, the points of difference from National, I think their support could easily return from the same place it always has, all over the political spectrum.

        NZ First has never been a stronger position to influence outcomes.

      • CLEANGREEN 4.7.2
        23 November 2017 at 8:22 pm

        Bullshit ‘Infused’ your’e ‘confused.’

    • Muttonbird 4.8
      23 November 2017 at 8:10 pm

      James is wrong on all his picks so there’s that for NZF to be happy about.

    • Tricledrown 4.9
      25 November 2017 at 8:29 am

      That would leave National no coalition options stranded 10% short of power.
      So where did the 30% of Winston’s National leaning supporters go?
      National must be worried no friends.

  5. Matthew Whitehead 5
    23 November 2017 at 7:42 am

    I don’t know, by Bill English standards, 40% is a ridiculously strong result. 😉 If he starts falling below 30%, then he’s back in familiar territory from way back when he was up against Clark. (I expect this may in fact happen- if a new government coalition still getting its legs under it can get a 5% overall boost for it and its support partner, that suggests people are actually liking the promise of what’s happening. National’s best strategy then is to paint them as all promise with no chance of delivery, and to take every chance to sabotage them they can get, which seems to be the way they’re going. It’s not a good option though, historically Labour dramatically outperforms National governments on almost every metric)

    The real disaster for the right is that if this new polling normal isn’t just a honeymoon and it can be worked on for the left to get an even better result, this suggests not only a second term, but a second term where Labour and the Greens can go into coalition instead of Labour and New Zealand First. They’ll be crossing their fingers that this is just honeymoon polling, and reminding themselves furiously that the Roy Morgan is the public poll that’s most friendly to the Left.

    • bwaghorn 5.1
      23 November 2017 at 11:46 am

      English is the mats Goff no one wants his job hell have it till the next election unless he decides to go

      • Matthew Whitehead 5.1.1
        23 November 2017 at 6:39 pm

        Oh, I think at least Collins would take that poisoned chalice and drink deep and long.

  6. The decrypter 6
    23 November 2017 at 7:43 am

    A very good result. From the amount of negative /anti new govt callers on talk back radio I am surprised somewhat. No doubt the likes of james will think it is perhaps a rouge poll or something. Looking forward to the next poll.

    • garibaldi 6.1
      23 November 2017 at 8:14 am

      Yes it is a rouge poll, being slightly red.

      • patricia bremner 6.1.1
        23 November 2017 at 11:16 am

        This is great.

        You would imagine with all the negative vibes recently from every national party mouth piece and MSM, past ministers full of doom and gloom, and American puff pieces painting NZ as doomed, it could have been awful.

        I think most people now think national et al just lies and makes shit up!!

        People see people as front and centre for this government and they want kindness.

        Winston has been deferential and has paid Jacinda the respect for her rightfully won role.

        Like Andrew Little who is much admired for his decision, in time I think Winston will be viewed in the same way.

        As people see the changes begin to improve lives, over the next while it can only get better for the coalition.

        • CLEANGREEN 6.1.1.1
          23 November 2017 at 8:30 pm

          100% bang on there.

          I am convinced also when Winston rings out the national; leakers in court on the 7th DFecember we will see four of five lying toads sitting there in court saying,
          I see no evil.
          I hear no evil.
          I say no evil.

          Then we will see some fireworks come out of Collins/bennett’s/Enliish/ joyes.
          Tolleys mouths before they are fined heaps for illegally leaking personal damaging details to destroy a political candidate.

          That will be well worth taking the day off to watch it all unfold.

    • James 6.2
      23 November 2017 at 9:39 am

      Your ongoing fascination with me continued huh?

      Anyhow. Nope unlike thouse on here – I do not normally yell rouge poll if there is a result I don’t personally agree with.

      • The decrypter 6.2.1
        23 November 2017 at 10:38 am

        james, I’m not fascinated by you, your love is with another. Hint –Zip it –? No I see you as my Litmus paper, A sort of troll Litmus tester to see what the present tory state of mind is. Thanks anyway james.

      • garibaldi 6.2.2
        23 November 2017 at 11:07 am

        Rogue vs rouge. Look it up if you can’t spell.

      • patricia bremner 6.2.3
        23 November 2017 at 11:31 am

        James your ego knows no bounds. Shame man shame! It aint all about you.

        • james 6.2.3.1
          23 November 2017 at 11:35 am

          Indeed – but is you look at decryptors post – he frequently refers to what I may think on a subject – just as he did today. So – yeah – that kinda makes it about me?

          “No doubt the likes of james will think ..”

          • Drowsy M. Kram 6.2.3.1.1
            23 November 2017 at 6:33 pm

            http://www.thesaurus.com/browse/fascinated

            If you’re comfortable with what you interpret to be the ‘fascination’ of others posting here, then why raise it? Realistically, it’s unlikely that those taking you’re name in vain are actually fascinated by you, but whatever floats your boat.

            “the likes of James” = ‘James and his ilk‘, so clearly not all about you.

            • james 6.2.3.1.1.1
              24 November 2017 at 9:46 am

              Drowsy M. Kram

              Drowsy by name and nature – read the entire three line post :

              “but is you look at decryptors post – he frequently refers to what I may think on a subject “

              • Drowsy M. Kram …
                24 November 2017 at 12:55 pm

                Another personal attack – how ‘fascinating’.

                https://thestandard.org.nz/national-reverts-to-type/#comment-1409339

                • james …
                  24 November 2017 at 2:50 pm

                  Not a personal attack. I was replying to a comment that was particularly unpleasant and calling them out on it.

                  But here – try it – do you think that this comment is acceptable?

                  Jacinda Ardern. An ignorant ,incompetent, immature boring turd of a woman. I do wish she would just fuck right off and when she gets there fuck off some more! ?

                  No – of course it is not acceptable – just as it wasnt when it was said about Bill English in the thread you are referring to.

                  Perhaps – if you had the class to pull people up when they spoke like that also – then the world would be a better place.

                  • Robert Guyton …
                    24 November 2017 at 2:59 pm

                    aaaaaah I see what you did there .. Saying offensive things under the guise of “I’m not saying this, but…”.
                    Im (sic) sure you thought that was very clever.

                  • james …
                    24 November 2017 at 4:24 pm

                    See if you can work out the thread – I know its a little complicated – but hang in there you will work it out.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    24 November 2017 at 4:28 pm

                    James,

                    What was the intent of your personal ‘Drowsy M. Kram: drowsy by name and drowsy by nature’ comment?

                    Attempts to remote-diagnose narcolepsy aside, why would you make this uninformed personal attack?

                    I’m inviting (not asking) you to spell this out for me (and others), because I’d prefer not to misinterpret your (or anyone else’s) comments. Blogs bring out the worst in some.

                    “A substantial fascinator is a fascinator of some size or bulk.” – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascinator

          • Robert Guyton 6.2.3.1.2
            24 November 2017 at 1:13 pm

            “No doubt the likes of james will think ..”
            Of course, such a claim is nonsense.

      • tracey 6.2.4
        23 November 2017 at 11:55 am

        No, instead you switch attention to NZF’s drop rather than the drop of the party who claimed some imaginary mandate to rule because of 44.4% of the vote… which has dropped further.

        • james 6.2.4.1
          23 November 2017 at 12:05 pm

          poor attempt Anne.

          Im simply commented on the party that lost the greatest %age of points in the poll against last time.

          Who BTW according to this poll are would be close to being out of parliament.

          As opposed to pointing out that despite not being in government – that National still out poll any other party (and yes I know it is not FFP).

          • tracey 6.2.4.1.1
            23 November 2017 at 12:09 pm

            close to out of parliament… like the greens you mean? So close to being out of parliament they ended up in Government.

            well, we will see how far their moaning takes them… 3.9% in a month.

  7. The decrypter 7
    23 November 2017 at 7:46 am

    opps james has beaten me too it –darn!!

  8. veutoviper 8
    23 November 2017 at 8:14 am

    The first post election poll results are out.

    I also thought that there had not been a RM Poll since the election, but in fact on Oct 29 Roy Morgan issued the results of a poll taken in early/mid Oct after the election but prior to Winston Peters announcing NZF would go with Labour to form a coalition government.

    I note that in the post Mickey Savage compares the latest poll results to the actual election results.

    For clarity, the results referred to in the actual latest Nov poll results in statements such as “Government was 54.5% (up 6% since early October)” are the earlier RM Oct poll results. I was confused until I realised this.

    These Oct results showed a slight fall off for Labour, Grens and NZF and a slight rise for National. The Nov results therefore show a good recovery from these results for Labour, Greens and NZF.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7379-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2017-201710270443

    [And just for comparison if anyone is interested, here are the results of the last Roy Morgan poll before the election (23 Sept)
    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7339-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-10-2017-201709151750%5D

  9. Matthew Whitehead 9
    23 November 2017 at 8:16 am

    For those wanting some extra data:

    If an election were held with the party vote resembling these numbers, here is what Parliament would look like:

    Labour: 50 seats
    Greens: 12
    NZF: 6
    ACT: 1 (If they win Epsom, which is a pretty safe client seat for National right now)
    National: 51

    Total seats: 120, Majority = 61

    This would give the balance of power to the Greens, and Labour would need either them or National to agree with them to pass legislation.

    If the MP win an electorate in 2020, it would look like this:

    Labour: 49
    Greens: 12
    NZF: 6
    Māori: 2
    ACT: 1
    National: 50

    There’s no significant change to the balance of power in this situation, however Labour could not afford to lose any by-elections.
    Total seats: 120, Majority = 61

    In terms of the margin of error, here are the likely ranges of support for the significant parties, rounded to the nearest quarter of a percent:
    ACT: about 0.25%-0.75% (my estimate formula doesn’t deal well with results as small as ACT’s, so I’m being charitable here)
    National: 37.5%-43.5%
    NZF: 3.75%-6.25%
    Māori: 0.75%-2.25%
    Labour: 36.5%-42.5%
    Greens: 8%-11.75%
    (Significant = some realistic route into Parliament. Mostly, I’m simply excluding TOP, because they’re not within the margin of error of the threshold yet)

    I ran some quick simulations assuming a random statistical deviation on a normal curve from the Roy Morgan poll, assuming ACT wins its electorate and the MP has a 50-50 chance of winning one, and here’s my results: (because this is quick, there are only 500 iterations, so it could be a little inaccurate. I usually did between 1,000 and 2,000 iterations in the election campaign, and I’ll probably do another 1,500 later and post it to Twitter)

    There is a just-over-even chance NZF drops below threshold (about 51%,) but polling at 5%, this is simply random noise, and the odds are likely to be even as to whether they drop out at such a result. (in reality, they’ll be slightly under or over, but unless someone has the unrounded figures I can’t simulate a probability for you all)

    There is no scenario in which National will govern with the support of ACT on these results unless this is a rogue poll. There are also no scenarios where NZF can defect to National and create a government with them and ACT without additional help.

    There is about a 1.6% chance that if the Māori Party gets back in and NZF defects on a result like this one, that they could have the numbers to both choose to support National and change the Government back, if they can work with ACT. This requires a simultaneously strong result for all three parties with list seats as well, so it would be the ultimate long-shot coalition.

    There’s about a 10.6% chance that the Māori Party could be an alternative support partner for Labour, allowing them to ditch New Zealand First.

    There’s a whopping 87.2% chance of an outright Labour-Green coalition government, if Labour chooses to have one.

    Overall it’s a very strong result for the Left, as you’d expect with a new government.

  10. mauī 10
    23 November 2017 at 8:35 am

    Labour… Labour! Labour! Labour!

  11. mac1 11
    23 November 2017 at 8:44 am

    The confidence rating at its highest point for eight ‘long years’ is an important figure.

    Two thirds of the country say the L/G/NZF govt is heading in the right direction.

    At least 25% of those who voted National in the election say so!

    Must be the Christmas spirit. Cheers!

    • mac1 11.1
      23 November 2017 at 9:32 am

      From the Roy Morgan poll release.

      “Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, says Jacinda Ardern has brought a new level of confidence to New Zealanders with the generational change she represents promising more engagement with solving pressing issues including Homelessness & Child poverty.”

      On the subject of homelessness, Ardern said the biggest failure of capitalism was on this issue. http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/10/homelessness-proves-capitalism-is-a-blatant-failure-jacinda-ardern.html

      This article’s headline actually misrepresented Ardern’s position.
      “Asked directly if capitalism had failed low-income Kiwis, Ms Ardern was unequivocal.

      “If you have hundreds of thousands of children living in homes without enough to survive, that’s a blatant failure. What else could you describe it as?”

      Forbes had this misrepresentation of Ardern’s position. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jareddillian/2017/11/20/new-zealand-an-economic-success-story-loses-its-way/#206307d35f7a

      “Ardern has brought youthful energy to New Zealand politics, but her scary rhetoric during the campaign (like calling capitalism a “blatant failure”) has some people wondering if she will take the country back to the bad old days of the 70s and early 80s.”

      As the Newshub quote shows she was referring specifically to “hundreds of thousands of children living in homes without enough to survive” as a failure of the market in NZ.

      A businessman I was talking to yesterday reads Forbes. He told me Forbes said that Ardern was against capitalism.

      No wonder that business is unhappy if its advice comes from misrepresentations in financial circles such as Forbes magazine or Newshub headlines.

      “Forbes is a leading source for reliable news” says Google.

      • Anne 11.1.1
        23 November 2017 at 10:02 am

        An excellent example of how the international corporate conglomerates and their puppet governments manipulate the masses in accordance with their own self-serving political ideologies and rabid greed.

        • CLEANGREEN 11.1.2.1
          23 November 2017 at 8:38 pm

          Yes saveNZ I posted on that blog, Chris did welll there, as Jacinda is slowly winning over the whole country now.

      • Matthew Whitehead 11.1.3
        23 November 2017 at 10:19 am

        Roy Morgan is fine at polling, and they should stick to it. Their stupid attempts to analyze the determinants of their poll results from over in Australia are laughable and should be ignored. There was one time they had a rogue poll that showed National unreasonable high and tried to explain it with one of National’s fluff policy announcements on housing.

        • mac1 11.1.3.1
          23 November 2017 at 10:31 am

          Matthew, what don’t you like about Michele Levine’s determinants- generational change, promises of engagement, or the issues of homelessness and poverty?

          A better and more fruitful discussion than your blanket condemnation of RM’s commentary based on one incident.

          • Matthew Whitehead 11.1.3.1.1
            23 November 2017 at 6:45 pm

            One incident? This is an ongoing trend, mac. They just throw whatever they can find up against the wall when analysing their polls- sometimes they happen to get it right because there are obvious . It’s desperate, and they’d be better just sticking with describing their poll instead, especially as it’s probably intended as a publicity thing.

            Generational change is likely wrong: Ardern didn’t secure a huge youth vote, and the arrest to its decline is most likely due to the Electoral Commission’s efforts, not Ardern being comparatively youthful for a PM.

            Housing and poverty, again, are issues so obvious that you can’t even miss them from Australia.

            Overall, it’s a facile analysis as expected.

            • mac1 11.1.3.1.1.1
              23 November 2017 at 7:01 pm

              Thanks for your reply, Matthew. I just needed to test your evidence. Too much argument based on one incident as perceived becoming blanket rubbishing. I am glad that your analysis was deeper. 😉

        • Bearded Git 11.1.3.2
          23 November 2017 at 5:21 pm

          +100 couldn’t agree more Mathew

      • mac1 11.1.4
        23 November 2017 at 3:21 pm

        Further to this rubbish article from Forbes.

        “Others pointed out basic factual errors in Mr Dillian’s piece. He got the date Ms Ardern became Prime Minister wrong, and claimed a quote from her first interview as Prime Minister-elect actually came during the election campaign, which had finished a month earlier.”

        http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/11/steven-joyce-brushes-off-controversial-forbes-article.html

        “Forbes is a leading source for reliable news” says Google.

  12. Psych nurse 12
    23 November 2017 at 9:22 am

    Headline news on MSM.Not.

  13. Ad 13
    23 November 2017 at 9:22 am

    Labour will struggle to retain power in 2020 if NZF dies.

    • adam 13.1
      23 November 2017 at 9:48 am

      Shouldn’t we face the elephant in the room – If WInston dies…

      • weka 13.1.1
        23 November 2017 at 9:53 am

        “if”. Pretty sure he’s not immortal 😉 but for decorum’s sake how about when Winston retires? Worth planning for. I’m guessing Labour’s plan is to be a bigger party and not need NZF. I’d prefer to see better resilience. Another smaller left wing party would be good.

      • savenz 13.1.2
        23 November 2017 at 10:23 am

        If Tracy Martin takes over when Winston retires, NZ First will survive because she is very outspoken and practical and popular. She is the sort, rural folks in particular, like. I suspect though there is a bit of internal jockeying and she has been marginalised a bit. If they keep Tracy Martin in a prominent position, (hopefully Winston’s replacement), NZ First will survive post Peters and not turn into ACT.

        • garibaldi 13.1.2.1
          23 November 2017 at 11:10 am

          I agree with you savenz. Tracy is their best bet vs Ron or Shane.

        • tracey 13.1.2.2
          23 November 2017 at 11:58 am

          A woman in charge of NZF? Shall we take a bet?

        • Cinny 13.1.2.3
          23 November 2017 at 2:06 pm

          Yes please re Tracey, she’s all shades of awesome.

        • mary_a 13.1.2.4
          23 November 2017 at 2:57 pm

          Agree savenz (13.1.2). Tracey Martin or Ron Mark would keep NZF together to challenge future elections. However, if Winston retires and Shane Jones becomes leader, then it will be definitely goodnight NZF! Jones’ grubby history still sticks in people’s minds!

    • Matthew Whitehead 13.2
      23 November 2017 at 10:21 am

      I assume you’re building in a drop in polling from this result? Because on this one they can govern even if NZF falls below threshold.

      • Ad 13.2.1
        23 November 2017 at 10:27 am

        Yes.
        This bump is rainbow dust material.

        • Matthew Whitehead 13.2.1.1
          23 November 2017 at 6:49 pm

          I would have said the support is incredibly soft but it is there to be secured if Labour and the Greens can get on their feet and start running, but that is probably a similar guess as to what’s going on.

          That said, the opposition doesn’t seem to have any idea what’s going on, so I don’t see them getting any traction either, and without any credible parties other than National on the right, the absolute best outcome for National is that any bled support simply goes into the non-voter column rather than to Govt parties.

        • CLEANGREEN 13.2.1.2
          23 November 2017 at 8:44 pm

          Ad,

          Nationals drop is angel dust?

          I hope they keep falliing till they dont couiunt any more the grubby cretins.

  14. savenz 14
    23 November 2017 at 10:12 am

    Amazing what happens when the media are not able to print propaganda day and night.

  15. Puckish Rogue 15
    23 November 2017 at 10:18 am

    Well this is obviously a (Puckish) rogue poll so not really much to talk about 🙂

    But seriously while this probably due to the election win bounce effect it’ll do good for the government

    • Muttonbird 15.1
      23 November 2017 at 8:14 pm

      It’s more than that. It’s the legitimacy of government where more people support the authority at the time. National are falling to their natural position right now – it just depends on how far they will fall. Somewhere in the mid 30s probably.

      • CLEANGREEN 15.1.1
        23 November 2017 at 8:47 pm

        Muttonbird,
        I’d say Natrional will fall to under 30% probably 27% before mid next year.

  16. Peter 16
    23 November 2017 at 12:39 pm

    The coalition rules!

  17. mary_a 17
    23 November 2017 at 3:05 pm

    Natz will be spitting tacks over this poll, to the point I’d say Joyce will be busy drumming up propaganda to hurl at government for msm to publish as breaking headline news! Watch this space ….

    • CLEANGREEN 17.1
      23 November 2017 at 8:50 pm

      maryA,

      Yes, Joyce is already out there since monday hugging the madia on tvone thjree and radio NZ this week so he is showing the strains of defeat and i love it all now since his propaganda bullshit doesnt work any more. Ha ha ha ah ah ah

  18. Tanz 18
    23 November 2017 at 4:16 pm

    Actually this is good news for National; Winston First has lost votes, and are slumping near the 5 per cent threshold. National are still ahead as the winner of the poll. Most of all though, Roy Morgan always favours the left and is the least accurate of all the pollsters, always. A new government should be leading in the polls, this is not the case. Go Nats. Looking forward to the far more reliable Colmar Brunton poll result. With all the negative press Labour have been getting already ( trainwreck Kelvin, Ardern upsetting Aussie, Joyce being proven right on the billion dollar tax hole etc), I don’t think National will be losing any sleep. Opposition for them is a doddle so far, Labour have been handing them the ammo from
    day one. It’s all been highly entertaining, but bad for the economic and bright future of NZ. Hey, but we won’t blame Winston…

    • McFlock 18.1
      23 November 2017 at 4:20 pm

      lol
      yup, billy no-mates is looking like a good bet today! /sarc

    • Matthew Whitehead 18.2
      23 November 2017 at 6:50 pm

      oh yeah a dip that’s well over the margin of error is good news ROFL.

      Try again. NZ First was getting a dip in post-election polling no matter who they coalesced with.

  19. Grantoc 19
    23 November 2017 at 4:37 pm

    I think that the only value of this one poll at this time is it’s general indicative nature.

    Putting this poll into context, it does need to be remembered that it, and its predecessor are the only polls that have been released since the election. In addition the RM poll has a reputation for being volatile. Before drawing any concrete conclusions about how the parties are trending, I’d want to have fed into the mix the results of other polls.

    Nevertheless there are one or two interesting trends that may be developing.

    For me they are:

    1. Labour and the Greens are gaining in popularity and National is slipping. No real surprise in that; its to be expected with a new government. Its possibly a bit surprising that Labour and the Greens are not in an even stronger position relative to National given that they are getting most of the media publicity and they are in their honeymoon period as a new government.

    2. NZ First is losing support. This may be as a result of entering into coalition with Labour. It will be interesting to see if this continues, and if it does how they, especially Peters, handle it.

    Its very early days. For me it won’t be until next year when there have been, presumably, other polling done that I will be more confident about how the parties are trending.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 19.1
      23 November 2017 at 6:48 pm

      “2. NZ First is losing support. This may be as a result of entering into coalition with Labour.”

      It may well be. Impossible to know what NZ1st would be polling now if they had done a deal with the Nats, but fun to speculate.

      Similarly, what might the Green % support look like now if they had decided to back National rather than Labour/NZ1st?

      Very early days, as you say.

    • Matthew Whitehead 19.2
      23 November 2017 at 6:56 pm

      I’m still trying to figure out where this “reputation for volatility” thing came from. CB is actually a more volatile poll than RM in terms of its frequency of obviously rogue results, and RM actually did reasonably well on predicting the outcome given that they didn’t throw in extra polls during the last month like CB and RR did. (CB and RR were similarly out to RM if you take their polls from the same timeframe and compare them to the election result- in fact, CB was even MORE friendly to Labour than RM was, which is nuts because CB is usually the “nat-friendly,” poll, and probably a reflection that RM’s mobile-polling approach is a little more agile and responsive to change than CB’s landline-only one is. RM’s poll has similar issues to CB fundamentally of course, as RR has shown that the partial-panel approach is actually even more agile and better at catching trends like NZ First’s late resurgence much more accurately than traditional phone-based approaches)

      I think you’re roughly right on the analysis though. I expect most of this is down to change of government optimism and New Zealand First losing supporters who wanted them to coalesce with National.

  20. Michael 20
    23 November 2017 at 5:42 pm

    I see the Nats’ holding up remarkably well after their political enemies out-manouevered them. OTOH, this probably marks the apogee of Labour’s popularity (and its coalition and support partners). It will be downhill all the way unless the Government maintains the initiative. So far, its record is mixed but, overall, a bit better than I expected (I had, and continue to have, very low expectations of them).

  21. Sparky 21
    23 November 2017 at 8:13 pm

    Lets see what happens if they push through the CP(TPP). Should be interesting. Suffice to say most new govts do well until they inevitably stuff it up……

  22. Tanz 22
    24 November 2017 at 1:13 am

    NZ First will have lost support also for siding with the election losers rather than the winner. Many will see this govt as not ‘of the people, for the people’, despite the legality rubbish of MMP. The first time we have had a govt that is not the result of a clear election result. (but due to seven per cent NZ first, Mr ‘ I will talk first with the party who polls highest)…

    According to some Nat MPs people are very unhappy that the Nats are not in power, when they received by far the most votes. Roy Morgan don’t even poll older people, that speaks volumes in itself. National won’t need mates come the next election and Labour won’t have NZ First to rely on (they will slip below the threshold, probably by miles). Early days, but already, this govt does not look prepared and are spending up large. Roll on Colmar Brunton, they do the most accurate polls. Bet they give a very different result, and I hear National are very happy with their own internal polling.

    • McFlock 22.1
      24 November 2017 at 1:17 am

      Hmmm.
      Don’t they say something like “winners have lots of friends”? If the nats won the election, why don’t they have any friends? Wouldn’t they be able to get together with their mates and form a government?

    • Draco T Bastard 22.2
      24 November 2017 at 1:35 am

      Those ‘many’ are the authoritarian type who like democracy when it goes their way and don’t like it when it doesn’t. When it doesn’t they’ll invent all sorts of bullshit about it not being right and they’ll even say that the results weren’t democratic despite them being fully democratic.

      Just like you’ve been doing ever since NATIONAL LOST.

    • Psycho Milt 22.3
      24 November 2017 at 7:33 am

      Oh, my aching sides – National would have won if it wasn’t for this “legality rubbish.” Fucking legal system, always screwing things up for the right!

      • Anne 22.3.1
        24 November 2017 at 9:39 am

        Tanz is our resident comic. I wouldn’t miss her missives for all the tea in China. She makes my day. Off to make a cuppa tea.

    • Matthew Whitehead 22.4
      24 November 2017 at 2:44 pm

      A higher percentage of voters voted for this government than voted for the 2014 National government, so pull the other one.

      Roy Morgan does poll a representative cross-section of the country, Tanz. All polling biases towards older voters- even internet polling. RM likely has to keep ringing to get to enough younger respondents. Roy Morgan does tend to veer a little left compared to other polls, but not by more than a couple percentage points.

  23. Tanz 23
    25 November 2017 at 5:45 pm

    National received 200,000 more votes than Labour and the Greens combined, and hold ten more seats. How is this a loss? It’s only due to Winston Peters, not due to actually losing the election. Nothing can change that, and National are still polling as the most preferred large party. Their internal polling is very robust. A new govt should be leading in the polls, but as this is not the preferred govt of the people, they are not. It is something of a Clayton’s win. Labour chosen by Peters rather than actually winning the election. Is Labour going to go out to win the next election, or to be chosen by Peters again (he will go below the threshold, already has)?. Even Arden phoned English on the night, admitting that National had the most votes. She knows the truth, at least!
    National almost got enough votes to govern alone this time around, it is just a matter of time. This election got stolen and the wider electorate knows it. Peters doesn’t care, that’s true, he is backtracking on almost every pre-election promise. He sold out integrity for massive baubles. However, he won’t be kingmaker again, and for Labour to govern next time, they will actually have to win the election. Good luck at that, with the Nats constantly ahead in all dependable polls. And as things turn to custard, (which Winston even predicted) they will pick up tons more votes.

    • Ed 23.1
      25 November 2017 at 5:49 pm

      Do you understand MMP?

      • NewsFlash 23.1.1
        25 November 2017 at 6:36 pm

        Obviously an older person that hasn’t caught up with MMP after twenty yrs, and when you consider the number of times National have governed with a minority over the last 80 yrs, their comments are ridicules.

        The hard core right always vote on ideology over performance, no matter how bad they are.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 23.2
      25 November 2017 at 6:03 pm

      I bet their internal polling is pretty legal 😆

  24. NewsFlash 24
    25 November 2017 at 6:22 pm

    For the first time in a decade, NZ finally has a real LEADER, not surprised the surge in the polls, both the previous PMs were nothing more than keeping the seat warm.

    There is small number of very irate RWs making a shed load off negative noise to try and undermine the new Govt assisted in some aspects by a partisan media, I really feel for them in their hour of discomfort.(sarc)

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  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

    The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

    Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.    “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024.  “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ to advance relationships with ASEAN partners

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane.    “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says.   “This will be our third visit to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Backing mental health services on the West Coast

    Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ support for sustainable Pacific fisheries

    New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Students’ needs at centre of new charter school adjustments

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Commissioner replaces Health NZ Board

    In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today.  “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister to speak at Australian Space Forum

    Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum.  While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation.  “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan.  “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government launches Military Style Academy Pilot

    The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Nine priority bridge replacements to get underway

    The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Update on global IT outage

    Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
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