The modern blitzkrieg [lightning war] was first tested in the Spanish civil war, refined in the invasions of European states that marked the beginning of WWII, and applied successfully in more recent invasions in the Middle East. A blitzkrieg’s success comes from the speed of its prosecution, from which it gets it name.
The speed of a blitzkrieg gives attackers the advantages of surprise and fierce, well-resourced and coordinated engagement with an opposition that is not yet fully mobilized.
The blitzkrieg requires the use of substantial force to overwhelm and shock opposing forces into disarray and quick submission. This is achieved by the carefully coordinated application of technically superior forces focused on a particular point, with its breech followed by deep incursions and large encirclements. The strategy also requires optimal conditions for speed, to maximize the efficacy of the attack force and to minimize logistic complications. The most successful examples have been conducted in summer months, where summer is the optimal season for waging a campaign. Blitzkriegs attempted too soon before the onset of winter have failed spectacularly, most notably in Operation Barbarossa.
Barbarossa failed because it faced unexpectedly fierce opposition from the onset, thus turning the tables of surprise, and because the strength of opposition caused delays in achieving the campaign’s objectives. That delay saw the campaign stretch on well past summer and autumn until the brutal Eastern European winter ensured any benefits the attackers might have had of speed and optimal impact were gone. The attackers became bogged down, bludgeoned, and eventually left with no gains, but substantial losses in material, morale and perceived invincibility. The whole bloody disgrace cost 15 million lives, roughly two thirds defenders and one third attackers.
The NACT government is attempting Roger Douglas’s preferred attack plan once again, but the conditions are nowhere near right for this strategy to work.
The government never had much of a summer, and what it did it squandered on the beaches of Hawaii. There is little evidence of a carefully coordinated, technically superior and concentrated force. Opposition will be substantial. A particularly harsh political and economic winter has already arrived and it will be much longer, much darker and much colder than usual.
It might have worked for them in the past, but this time the strategy is wrong for the conditions and will fail.