The PM has been doing geopolitics. And with some finesse!
Hipkins said that in his visit two weeks ago to Beijing he "encouraged China to play a constructive role" to attempt to influence Russia over the invasion of Ukraine. "China's increasing assertiveness is resulting in geopolitical change and competition," he said.
Noteworthy is the conceptual link between his second and third statements. If you comprehend his linkage, appreciate the subtlety of the nuance he's using.
Nudge theory has been influential quite a while now. Hints are a traditional part of human discourse, so nudge theory uses them as the basis for tactical influence.
Another thing worth noting about his geopolitical stance is that it deploys a paradox: we are both friend and foe to China simultaneously. Using a paradox to send a geopolitical signal to other nations is extremely sophisticated political behaviour. I wonder who's pulling his strings. Bilderbergers? Not that NATO didn't do so directly, of course, but we don't know that unless he tells us. Perhaps his dance with NATO includes a dance with the truth, in which case default Labour obfuscation could produce a dance with 7 veils. Traditional cultural play, so likely to appeal to the PM as a true conservative…
Yeah, you're not wrong but I'm agnostic on any updated TPP, the devil being in the detail. Speaking of which, note the warning about the devil issued by Xi's underling to Aotearoa (reported in that link above).
Ultimately God's will will prevail & since he's omnipotent and omniscient the devil will act accordingly. Theologians are always strangely quiet on this topic…
Blinken seems a typical Democrat thus far, straight out of the classic mould. No sign of him growing into the job.
Stop hiking the OCR and therefore stop encouraging the NZ$ exchange rate to increase, if you want to boost exporters. This is the fundamental basis for Germany's trade success, they have been either part of an exchange rate or monetary union which lowers their exchange rates in relation to other neighbour economies (for 40+ years). NZ is not part of such a union and as a developed economy isn't going to compete on price with other still developing economies in Asia.
I wouldn't particularly name this as any alternative ideology. I just think its important to recognize that the same kinds of politicians and commentators who are supposedly in favour of exporters are also cheering often whenever the exchange rate hits at new peek. I think only Winston Peters ever released an official policy position at any time.
Also its not exactly dissent from my point of view. I'm highlighting that NZ is not that geared up for exports primarily and doesn't really commit to that kind of policy without these kinds of contradictions anyway. NZ mostly runs current account deficits and that's fine but could do better at recognizing the effects of that.
You're on fire today Ad; it is more accurately a less-tax policy as it would result in 95% of people getting a tax cut, but you keep banging that drum, it sure distracts from what Labour have said they'll do!
Taxing unearned wealth is an incentive to "invest" in real wealth building, including export earning business, instead of speculation focused on pushing prices of existing assets into the stratosphere.
The Greens tax policy may well do more for our overall wealth, than any number of Corporate welfare (free trade agreements).
Taxing unearned wealth is an incentive to "invest" in real wealth building, including export earning business, instead of speculation focused on pushing prices of existing assets into the stratosphere
But this did not apply to The Greens wealth tax. It was going to tax farms, businesses including taxing export earning businesses.
KJT I think we need a definition of what 'real wealth building' is. I for one would have thought investing in a export businesses in shares in export businesses. Or are you meaning a growth in Govt bonds say an opportunity to invest in tied capital raising by the govt to say pay for roads or specific programmes.
This used to be a quite attractive investment for civic minded people who did not mind a slightly less than market rates, with the difference being a combination of feel good plus security of investment.
Shanreagh. Businesses, real businesses, already pay tax. I invested in business and pay tax on income at my marginal rate. This will add buggerrall to my tax apart from a few percent at the margin which Ihave no problem paying so others can live a little better.
Those that are in the business of land speculation or the "chain in the river" rental income, that takes without adding to real wealth, however. https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/13-03-2022/sunday-essay-the-chain-across-the-river “The landlords aren’t doing anything useful for that extra money. They’re just using political power to extract value from the productive economy, same as the lord chaining his river. And when the artificial scarcity of housing drives up property values then all homeowners extract rent from people trying to enter the market, who have to pay inflated prices. The quality of the housing hasn’t gone up. (The quality of our housing stock is mostly terrible.) It just costs more”.
Taxing unearned income streams such as "Capital gains tax farming" would long term have benefited farming and other businesses, by reducing the cost of land for farming, business rentals and premises, and the hemorrhaging of farm income to banks, that pays the interest on inflated land prices.
Farms are now technically loss making businesses, expecting to only make a profit when the land is sold, because their is no way farm income can cover the interest cost on the land. Leading to over stocking, soil depletion and other effects of having to cover excessive interest bills. Only the banks and finance interests gain long term.
I'm also aware that export businesses provide the lifeblood of NZ. They bring new money into the country. We (Govt) should support any business that does this. We (citizens) should be behind any Govt that recognises the important role of exporting..
I have never said or implied that land speculators are export businesses or bring new money into the economy.
I was hoping you would have had comments on the ideas of Govt Bonds being a postive mechanism for people to invest in NZ
Our Goverments have largely signed away the ability to help our export businesses, in favour of so called " free trade agreements" which have sacrificed most of our export businesses for the "sacred cow" of dairy commodity exports, which has questionable long term net benefits.
Government bonds are a legitimate way of investing in the countries future. Noting that gains on them are already taxed.
There is a problem with the taxing of "unrealised gains" which has still to be addressed in both the Greens and TOP's wealth tax proposals.
Noting that you get taxed on interest earned from monetary investments, and share dividends, even if you don't "realise" withdraw, the money.
It would be simpler to tax at realisation, such as inheritance or sale, and much easier to determine values. Then loopholes such as "gifting" need to be addressed.
The "family home" is another glaring loophole. Key's 10 million "family home" is just one example. I can see every child in a wealthy family with a "family home". Setting a threshold such as two million per person makes it harder to make such a loophole. A million per person automatically exempts most "family homes". Two million leaves most peoples savings untaxed.
Lastly. Reducing the huge deadweight cost and mis-directed speculation, sorry, investment, on our economy, of inflation of existing assets caused by speculation driven by unequal tax treatment, is essential for all our future.
Salmon co-founded the Native Forest Action Council – now the Ecologic Foundation– which launched the petition, the Maruia Declaration, in 1975… Forty-six years on, Salmon has been made an Officer of the New Zealand Order of Merit for services to the environment.
He was competing with us during the early '90s – Stephen Rainbow left us, joined him & Gary Taylor to try a blue-green political party:
In the 1996 election, conducted under the new MMP system, the Progressive Green Party won 0.26% of the vote, considerably below what they had hoped for, and had no members elected to Parliament. The Party did not contest any further elections, and eventually disbanded. In December 1998 the Progressive Greens were de-registered by the Electoral Commission.
Many of the party's members are now associated with the Bluegreens, an environmental "task force" within the National Party – Fenwick was the first convener of the Bluegreens and went on to co-found the NZ Business Council for Sustainable Development.
Given the opportunity to set policy towards a more progressive future Labour "baulked at the fence" again.
Labour has again failed to institute and defend more progressive policy.
Which makes you wonder if their heart is really in it?
When the right wing say Labour "squandered" their time in power they mean that Labour spent on people other than themselves. What Labour has really squandered is opportunity to reset the future for everyone. The only positive is that it is still better than NACT "competently" stealing our future.
I agree Ad. While I have been critical that more was not done on reversing things like the energy sell-off I accept that it would be an enormously complex undertaking.
I think the value of not being dead and also running a low unemployment model is worth megabucks. The scourge of unemployment & the move to keep high employment rates is something worth fighting for.
Rightist Govts often use rates of unemployment to crudely make progress ie to get money into their supporters hands they are willing to tolerate a higher rate of unemployment
The govts in the 80s & 90s altered the relationships and rights of workers drastically and this work by the Labour govt helps workers.
Michael Woods and his work will have a long lasting effect.
Fair Pay Agreements were a 2020 Labour manifesto commitment, which we have extensively consulted on, taking a balanced approach to the final design,” Michael Wood said.
Italians have reacted with outrage after a 66-year-old school cleaner escaped punishment for groping a female pupil because it “only lasted about ten seconds”.
The 17-year-old schoolgirl was walking up a flight of stairs between classes when the janitor, Antonio Avola, put his hand inside the waistband of her trousers and inside her underwear from behind.
When she confronted him, he responded: “Come on darling, you know I’m only joking,” according to other students who witnessed the incident, which happened at a high school in Rome in April last year.
But a court in Rome ruled that his groping had “only lasted between five and 10 seconds” and that his hand had not “lingered” down her underpants for very long. He had not intended to seriously molest the teenager, the court said. Putting his hand inside her trousers was “bumbling” but had not been a sign of “sexual desire”.
The notion that judges get it right is extremely traditional, even if crazy. So we can assume a resurgence of the patriarchy in Italy. Will it become contagious?
Last week, an Italian minister, Vittorio Sgarbi, faced calls to resign after he used an appearance at a modern art museum in Rome to praise the penis as “an organ of knowledge, that is to say penetration” and boasted of sleeping with 1500 women.
Macho art critics could become a thing here quite easily, eh? Those Maori carvings of erections are extremely traditional, so one can imagine the possibility of pakeha finally getting over 19th century puritanical values and embracing an iconic macho stance.
True if you focus on the mastermind producing the design but spare a thought for the practice of responsible government – our constitutional praxis. Cabinet agreed to the policy. Therefore it is a Labour/Green solidarity position.
No need to weasel, so long as James is able to use leverage to tweak the thing. Best to point to the market failure. Neolibs are in perpetual denial when it comes to market failures even when surrounded by them. Eyes tight shut. One must get up close with a megaphone & point it at their ears and yell into it. He will have to do so.
Weasel bullshit, as useful as saying that Budget 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and 23 is Green policy. Or any other Cabinet level decision.
Shaw has had 2 terms to make any distinction between himself and beige custard. Shaw is through and through a market-focused solution guy. Which is if course why they are solid at 8% now not crashing: they don't scare the horses. Even Hosking gives him an easy ride.
Given that the ETS was developed and introduced by the Fifth Labour Government in 2008 and James Shaw entered parliament in 2014, it certainly seems that someone's trying to weasel out of something here, but it's not the Greens.
Oh please. James Shaw drafted the law, was and is the Minister responsible for the policy, got all sides of Parliament except Act to agree, and implemented it. Do yourself a solid and just take an ounce of responsibility.
In the 2014 Election when Shaw first entered parliament, the Greens policy was a Carbon Tax. Labour and National wanted a market, which is what they made.
‘Take the responsibility’ you say of a minister outside of cabinet. Very very normal, and not at all panicked lashing out.
Not sure why the Greens want further Cabinet positions if they can’t take responsibility for the primary Cabinet position they wanted in the first place.
this is stupid. The Greens have limited power. If they'd had their way they would have developed a different kind of system for NZ's climate response. But they didn't have that power, so they worked with what they could.
Shaw doesn't have a magic wand to force Labour to change Labour policy nor to get GP policy implemented and it's really weird that you keep pretending that he does.
thanks for this. I never got my head around the ETS because polluter pays is a very poor form of climate action. It's my memory that the Greens had to swallow a bitter pill on the ETS because they didn't have the power to get something better through. I'd like to write a post on this, do you have any further thoughts or links? I will need to understand the scheme and the history.
I think it is a pragmatic acceptance that since both Labour and National govts maintained it, improving the existing ETS would have more permanence and therefore effectiveness.
Here's an example prior to that in 2014 when they still advocated scrapping it:
The Green Party announced last month it would scrap the ETS and introduce a fair and transparent carbon tax, the revenue from which will all be returned to households and businesses in the form of tax cuts.
Here is James Shaw praising a rising carbon price, while also saying it is insufficient and still too low, and advocating for a carbon tax in 2016:
“The price is still far too low to be an effective incentive to business to shift investment towards low-carbon alternatives. Even at the price we have today, emissions will continue to rise. Businesses need more certainty that the carbon price won’t crash again.
“We would prefer the Government move to a simpler carbon tax system, but if it’s going to review the ETS we hope it takes it seriously and restores its integrity. This should include instituting a minimum carbon price of $25, scrapping the subsidies to polluters, and giving agriculture a deadline for entering the scheme.
“A gradual increase in the price of carbon will be good news for the economy. It will mean New Zealand businesses are more likely to invest in clean sectors of the economy, making New Zealand more competitive with the rest of the world.
In 2022 Shaw addressed some of the history while announcing the changes the current government made to the ETS. There is still an emphasis on a more effective pricing structure:
“When the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) began it was decided that some companies would receive up to 90 percent of their pollution credits for free. The purpose of this was to protect these companies from more lightly regulated competitors outside of New Zealand. However, the baseline used to decide how many credits each company would receive is exactly the same today as it was 12 years ago.
“Over the last decade, major polluters have changed how they do business and are now receiving many more credits than they need. The government at the time said it would begin phasing down the free allocation of credits from 2013, slowly driving up the cost of pollution. However this did not happen, meaning we’ve been stuck with an out of date system that has directed large amounts of taxpayers’ money towards big polluters, while keeping emissions higher than they should be. Allowing this to continue would be incompatible with the climate targets we have set – so we’re stepping in to fix it.
“From 2024, our biggest polluters will receive only the pollution credits they need – making sure they play a major role in meeting the Government’s second emissions budget. The changes will remove a major obstacle to innovation, to industrial decarbonisation and the proper functioning of our carbon market. Together with our plan to phase out free allocation over time, this will push the big polluters to make a larger contribution towards meeting our goal of building a net-zero future.
“Today’s announcement builds on the work we have already done to make the ETS fit-for-purpose, including reforms that have put a proper price on pollution and raised about $4.5 million for climate action.
“A well-functioning ETS that puts a proper price on pollution is a critical tool in our climate action toolbox. But it cannot do the job alone. The actions and initiatives in the Emissions Reduction Plan will ensure we meet the first emissions budget and lay the foundation for future climate action,”
In 2020, we declared a climate emergency, committing to urgent action to reduce emissions. In 2019, we passed the Zero Carbon Act – aiming to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 – and reformed the Emissions Trading Scheme to more effectively reduce climate-polluting emissions.
In government, Labour took significant steps to address climate change, including:
Fixing the Emissions Trading Scheme
or maybe Shaw was just the surrogate and Labour the buying parent. As you wish, but that shite is bi-partisan, and its Labour and their Green surrogates.
The NZ ETS was not develped de novo in a vacuum. I'd say, look to trends and political pressures internationally at the time – and at which consulting firms pushed the government towards this option.
It's vitally important that left-wingers signal a virtue to everyone. It's what they were born to do. They can't be authentic without doing so! https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/suasion
If it finds itself in a position to do so, the Green Party will “explore” the return of land “wrongfully alienated from the tangata whenua”.
Exploration is not a bad thing. Explorers have mana traditionally. Heroic adventuring into the wild Green yonder is also fun.
Love the grab-bag of RW slogans I see you sprinkle into your comments. Struggling with what idea you're trying to communicate with the slogan 'virtue signalling' here. What do you actually mean to say?
No big deal, merely irony. That you see me recycling RW slogans is perception – the accuracy of those being more to the point. Note the moral guidance of suasion. That inherent part of leftism is a valid component. It signals useful common ground and is therefore an eternal survival skill for humans.
Despite that sensibility, leftists defaulting into banality when talking at people rather than to them is a herding drift that they often use to render themselves politically impotent. I try to be helpful by pointing to it every now & then…
As trotter points out this would not be price-setting in any shape or form..
That iwi/hapu purchases would meet the market price…"
Until it is and how can enforce it?. If they have first right of refusal, can the vendor refuse if they offer too low a price or will they have to accept any offer – or will they have to go to court to be allowed any other offer if the Iwi/hapu offer is to low, and how could that be legislated and who would enforce it.
You can hope, but then hope costs nothing and generally has no worth other then it makes one feel better for a moment until reality hits again square in the face.
What this reminds me of the Landreforms in Eastern Europe/Germany during the times of the Communists and to some extend in West Germany.
The land reforms in both East and West Germany had three main goals:
to end the conservative political influence of land barons[clarification needed].
to reallocate and integrate refugees from the former eastern territories and citizens displaced by bombings.[12][13]
to enforce greater flexibility and efficiency in short-term agricultural production.[14]
The communist Bodenreform in East Germany nationalised all private property exceeding an area of 100 hectares (247 acres), and redistributed it to publicly owned estates.[15]
Since 1990, after German reunification, some Junkers tried to regain their former estates through civil lawsuits, but the German courts have upheld the land reforms and rebuffed all claims for compensation.
On part for the refusal to pay out any damages etc is simply the understanding that you can't undo and go back to the past, and at the same time you can not burden any other new generation with the costs of the past, and that to destroy the current for the past makes no sense.
Sometimes what is done is done.
this might be a good read on that decision of the courts.
A Bitter Inheritance: East German Real Property and the Supreme Constitutional Court's "Land Reform" Decision of April 23, 1991 Constitutional Court's "Land Reform" Decision of A
What are we trying to achieve here should be the first question, second would be does it benefit all or just a select few, if it only benefits a select few is it then not against the greater good for all? Or we go full Zimbabwe. That too would be an option.
Moving out of where you are at retirement age (or thereabouts) to where you think you'll be happy is a basic Kiwi instinct. Call it neocolonial if you want.
Is this just another manifesto of Tall Poppy Syndrome and the politics of envy? Horrible whatever it is.
I have every admiration for the likes of Marc Ellis and do not begrudge him his good fortune. he was a talented sports figure, built his juice empire…….good on him.
I somehow think that an intensive updating of knowledge about the history of kiwi home ownership & its importance to Kiwi battlers from the year dot would be a good thing. Perhaps along with Civics we can get this in the school curricula.
Why is it horrible to point out that he can buy a cheaper house in Italy, that food in Italy is cheaper then here, that he feels alienated by his country? That he no longer feels welcome in his own country due to various reasons.
I mean if he were the only one leaving i would say maybe…..
but,
The net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 23,500, the highest since the October 2013 year.12/05/2023
and i would like to point out that those that leave are the ones that have the skill set, the youth, the money, the connection. And to make up for it we employ lots of people from elsewhere, i guess that is the future 'settler' generation, after all they migrated here and 'settled'?
How on earth can you really justify calling someone who was born into this country a 'settler'.- I man can you even in any meaningful term define 'settler'?
Pakeha in most people mind means New Zealander born to the country not of Maori ethnicity.
Pretty much all of Maori have settlers blood in them. Who is the purest then, and at what stage can a Maori be a settler, is that like African Americans dabbling in White Supremacy?
How big is the percentage of Maori that are married to their settler overlords and have children?
The white, brown, asian children born into this country should have the right to be not insulted by being called settler (implying some sort of inherited 'oppressor' status) by people who want to feel righteous and who like to bask in the purifying light of moral supremacy. Until of course these righteous settlers are happy to leave, after all this is not heir country. And that would include anyone of us who is not sufficiently maori, and who much % of Maori must one have to be sufficiently pure? Just asking, cause as a German i can't really put my finger on it, but……..it feels vaguely familiar.
See, I don't identify as a Pakeha. I am not. I am german, born in germany, raised in the culture etc etc etc, I am like that Maori Guy that lives in my hometown with his German wife and his German/Maori son an 'expat' or an immigrant. So I really don't identify with all that settler crap that is designed to put down todays white, non maori/pi brown kids and asian kids down a nudge as an intruder of sorts.
I also have a place to go to, should that settler crap here explode and become mean as it seems to go atm, do you? Are you enough Tangata Whenua to not be considered a settler? How racially pure are you Sanctuary.
As for the tone of his reasoning for leaving, it resonates with many, and we are losing our best to OZ and any other country that will have them, to import the cheapest laborer we can find in asia. Go figure.
It is a pretty straight forward rule to me. Is your relationship with your homeland transactional or unconditional? Like all of us, Ellis won huge in the lottery of birth – the country he was born into, the genetics he was blessed with that made him a skilled athlete and the infrastructure that existed to allow to achieve his full potential. By all means, he should go and enjoy your wealth as you see fit. But a thank you and a bit of humility and love for his country would be nice, don’t you think?
NZ made him a rich man – yet his relationship remians entirely transactional and transitory and he feels the need to dump on the place before he buggers off. It is this entitled, transitory and transactional mindset that irks me and for me sets apart the settler and colonist from the native. You find few Maori who feel the need to bag the country in public, even when they migrate for better jobs or opportunites. Taika Waititi might be clear eyed enough to know NZ is "racist as" but it doesn't stop him showing his affection for the people of this land in "Hunt for the Wilderpeople".
Ask yourself this – is there any real, material difference between Ellis's attitude to his homeland and one displayed by any number of Victorians and Edwardians, who having made their fortune in extracting wealth in the colonies retired with their money to live the life of leisured gentlemen in London?
You can also read it as a vote of no confidence in National and ACT though, eh? Isn't that a better way of seeing his move? Since his explanation isn't visible.
Ask yourself this – is there any real, material difference between Ellis's attitude to his homeland and one displayed by any number of Victorians and Edwardians, who having made their fortune in extracting wealth in the colonies retired with their money to live the life of leisured gentlemen in London?
Ask yourself this – is there any real, material difference between Ellis's attitude to his homeland and one displayed by any number of foreigners, who having made their fortune in extracting wealth in the colonies retired with their money to live the life of leisured gentlemen in Wanaka? 🙂
Now that is the problem, you don't ask yourself why a born and bred Kiwi, who made good money and made the country good money, leaves his comfortable life here to start a new comfortable life elsewhere. I mean the sunshine is a reason, but its not the only one.
Fact is that he is one of the few lucky that can just retire, and that will be given citizenship in Italy, as they clearly see him as a law abiding gentlemen, with his family, bringing money and a bit of prestige to a i Italian town, maybe he even coaches a youth club or something. Who knows.
What you prefer to not mention is the 25.299 others that are also leaving, Maori and 'Settler' alike, for the same reason to any country that will have them, whilst we are trying to import as cheap a laborer as we can find to make up for the shortfall.
Cheaper housing, cheaper food, better services, and hopefully no constant divide and conquer on the grounds of race, which for the most part of NZ'lers mean a mix of maori and 'settler'. That is why people leave. And you who has nothing of substance to that point say trot out your idiotic last century talking points about colonies and settlers. Mind me asking, did you get a Lolly with that critical race theory? .
Young people with education, and those with money are voting with their feet.
Highest number since 2013. That would be at John Key level. Well done Labour, you have achieve equality.
I remember hearing when young, "The party's boring, I'm going."
Which often seemed a way of saying "The party's boring, and I don't have the ability or personality to make it not boring. I'll go somewhere else where someone else will provide an environment for me that I find not boring."
Another aspect of the Mark Ellis perspective: He is like many career sports journalists who moan about rules in the game of rugby. I have yet to see one come out with their 'book of laws and rules' for the game. Whingeing from the sideline? Plenty of that. Sit down and come up with a comprehensive re-write (with some from the multitude of discontented) and use their influence and reach to try to get change? No way. It's easier to chip and run. To the backblocks, or Italy.
Nope that was net migration outwards as per the Government.
No one is coming back really, but many leave. Heck, even the Maori leave – the young ones. Better money, healthcare, and education, houses and cheaper food. All good reasons to leave.
Migration, in most cases is driven by economic decisions, that is why people from Asia like to come here, and that is why people from here like to go to OZ or elsewhere in the search of Opportunity and wealth.
You have those that are coming into the country with spouses, but would they have migrated here if they had not married a kiwi? Chances are not.
Kiwis are migrating away from NZ in order to seek a better more affordable future elsewhere and it would behoove us all to even just consider why they do that. Rather then go in a rant about colonists coming to make holidays in the colonies or other such assorted academic bullshit.
Pfft. People come and people go. Not everyone gets on with their birth family, or suits the temperament of their birth culture. Some are ambitious and see better chances for themselves elsewhere. Not much point in trying to get the leavers to stay.
However, I agree that putting the boot in before you slam the door on your way out is ungracious.
I got myself into a bit of trouble with the mods yesterday using output from Chat GPT
On reflection, I think the criticism was fair enough. I asked it to produce a list of studies which I didn't bother to investigate which I should have.
But one of the big weaknesses I can see (confirmed by Chat GPT itself, asking it today) is that it is unable to access the full studies if these are not publicly available. Therefore, it may not be aware of weaknesses in those studies, or how directly applicable they are.
This probably isn't such an issue with well investigated areas, as it will be able to access relevant text books etc I suspect. But, in those areas, there probably isn't much need to ask Chat GPT anyway. Though, I think it is best to use that output as a starting point, rather than as the final word on anything.
But in more obscure areas, I think any output from Chat GPT needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
Because Chat GPT seems almost omnipresent, it is easy to assume it knows everything. But, this clearly isn't the case.
Always check what ChatGPT or similar generates. It can and does make up stuff (BS), including links. Click on the links, check that they are real, and check that the info matches the burbles generated by ChatGPT. This is critical when you are in unfamiliar topic territory (NB incorrect title, authors, publication/journal name, or date/year are signs that it was made up or at least part of it – you won’t know which part)
ChatGPT is not a magical key or wand that gets past (most) firewalls or subscriptions. If you cannot see the full text then ChatGPT cannot either. However, ChatGPT has no shame or moral handbrake on filling in the blanks and generate something plausible. (NB it sounds plausible because it is probable text based on its training set, but this does not make it correct or even accurate)
ChatGPT has an in-built bias because it was trained on a biased training set.
ChatGPT responds to your prompts; different prompts generate different burbles.
ChatGPT is a powerful tool when used correctly but it can also be a formidable weapon in the wrong hands. TS Mods will follow a hard line against misuse and abuse of AI tools for political gain, such as propagating talking points & propaganda or dumping large amounts of unchecked (and unlinked) misinformation.
This site is for robust political debate and all commenters are expected to take ownership & responsibility of their comments. TS is not a notice board or a free-for-all forum to indulge your personal pet projects with a plethora of copy-pasta and spam the site with your favourite links to your preferred sites (aka spamming or link-whoring). When you copy & paste ChatGPT burble, for example, it becomes your burble (aka your baby) and you must defend it accordingly.
The opinion of others rarely matters (much) here and you cannot hide behind the opinions or comments of others; it is considered bad-faith. In general, for the sake of robust debate, the only opinions that matter here are the ones expressed & debated by commenters (and Authors), as they are the only people who exist on this site. (NB we cannot debate with a person who’s not commenting here nor can that person explain or defend themselves if they are not active on this site – this should be as obvious as an open door)
Remember this when you use ChatGPT or similar. It will be a learning curve for all, but ignorance is not an excuse.
ChatGPT has been accused of engaging in biased or discriminatory behaviors, such as telling jokes about men and people from England while refusing to tell jokes about women and people from India, or praising figures such as Joe Biden while refusing to do the same for Donald Trump. Conservative commentators accused ChatGPT of having a bias towards left-leaning perspectives.
Additionally, in a 2023 research paper, 15 political orientation tests were conducted on ChatGPT, with 14 of them indicating left-leaning viewpoints, which appeared to contradict ChatGPT's claimed neutrality.
In response to such criticism, OpenAI acknowledged plans to allow ChatGPT to create "outputs that other people (ourselves included) may strongly disagree with". It also contained information on the recommendations it had issued to human reviewers on how to handle controversial subjects, including that the AI should "offer to describe some viewpoints of people and movements", and not provide an argument "from its voice" in favor of "inflammatory or dangerous" topics (although it may still "describe arguments from historical people and movements"), nor "affiliate with one side" or "judge one group as good or bad". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT
The style & tone modifier provided to users seems to portend a dimension of idiosyncrasy – almost whimsical potential, if you include that with the capacity to dissent from favoured views as mentioned above.
A senior editor at The Atlantic has written that ChatGPT and other similar technology make the previously absurd idea of the dead internet theory a little more realistic, where most web content could someday be created by AI in order to control society.
Seems likely to add a surreal dimension at the leading edge, which will seep into the mainstream in ratio to the number of users.
The share price of Buzzfeed, a digital media company unrelated to AI, increased 120% after announcing OpenAI technology adoption for content creation.
Looks like law clerks could lose part of their duties…
While GPT-3 demonstrated impressive results in AI language processing, GPT-3.5 pushed the boundaries even further and incorporated improvements in both processing and output quality.
However, GPT-4 goes even further and is much more concise than 3.5, so much so that it was able to pass the law bar exam with ease!
I wonder how long it will take till one of these gizmos gets to provide testimony on case law in court. Soon as we hear of top US legal firms using this system to expedite precedent research we'll know it won't take much longer.
'Government by swing voters". Otherwise known as "focus groups".
It is obvious that our laughable, "Representative Democracy" is going to result in policy that somewhere between 53% and 80% of voters polled, want! is being dumped in favour of policy to sway approximately 10% of voters, that will swing between Labour and National.
Up to 80% of the electorate support left or right leaning political parties. The levels of 'left' and 'right' might change but that is roughly what happens. Up to 20% 'don't know' for a variety of reasons but mostly because they don't bother to take an interest. Some of those 'don't knows' make up their minds on polling day or in the days leading up to it. The rest don't vote.
Yet 'they' are usually the ones who decide the outcome which pretty much defeats the purpose of a democratically elected government.
Your last point is worthwhile considering at length. Everyone ought to. Imagine if the govt set up a website called Public Opinion. Framed it to elicit feedback on current issues. Allowed crowd-sourced wisdom to tweak that framing by demand, driven by numbers dissenting in ratio to numbers favouring govt framing.
If the tech design & system worked out right, we'd all get a user interface with direct democracy. We couldn't compel the govt – but we could provide a useful simulation of the overall public mood on issues. Way better than focus groups!!
Ha! Immediately subject to capture by those politically invested in the outcome of any one vote. Not to mention the political framing of the question to start with (who gets to decide this, I wonder)
Given that we can't persuade voters to come out and cast their ballot once every 3 years – what would make you think that we could get people to invest their time more regularly? Especially after the first time, they didn't get the outcome they wanted.
Anyone who's been involved in market surveys and focus groups, knows the challenge they face to get ongoing participation…..
It seems much like governing by referendum….. And we've all seen the dubious outcomes those can generate….
Valid points but seems to me the incentive-structure does enable participatory democracy to an indicative extent. Sort of organised virtue-signalling, but in a methodica design. If you chartered a public service organisation to administer the interface, you could insert a clause in their employment contracts requiring them to design and operate it in accord with the public interest.
That kind of pragmatic consensus-generating model usually works due to the extent of common ground becoming evident to all players. It is essentially an activist-driven arena.
I'd advocate, for instance, a class-based module within the overall system, plus an identity-politics module as well, leaving it flexible enough to respond to other crowd-sourced framings too. Those to be incorporated when surpassing a threshold of activation to be consensually decided…
I think, however, you are wildly over-estimating the willingness of the general NZ public to participate. The TS commentariat is a wild outlier in terms of general political engagement.
Have you been monitoring the progress of Action Station? Since launch, I mean, around a decade or so back (I was involved in designing it prior to that). Last I noticed the membership count it was several thousand.
Unfortunately it got captured by left-wingers early but it still has leverage on politics and sometimes gets results from collective pressure that even I have been able to feel good about.
My point is that the system I propose caters for all shades of political opinion & tribalism gets relegated into holistic context.
Dennis Frank, sounds a little like Switzerland's semi-direct democracy
'Switzerland features a system of government not seen in any other nation: direct representation, sometimes called half-direct democracy (this may be arguable, because theoretically, the sovereign of Switzerland is actually its entire electorate). Referendums on the most important laws have been used since the 1848 consitution.
'Amendments to the Federal Constitution of Switzerland, the joining of international organisations, or changes to federal laws that have no foundation in the constitution but will remain in force for more than one year must be approved by the majority of both the people and the cantons, a double majority.
'Any citizen may challenge a law that has been passed by parliament. If that person is able to gather 50,000 signatures against the law within 100 days, a national vote has to be scheduled where voters decide by a simple majority of the voters whether to accept or reject the law.'
The cantons are parts of the federal system that have their own decision-making power.
Indeed. I recall making a similar comment on their system onsite here a while back actually. However blending it with high tech design and a user-interface seems the best way to go. I read a book called User Friendly from the library and it emphasised the role of design in operational systems, and how that could produce optimal engagement of people. Made Apple top corporation globally.
I'd say that both Labour and National have a tribal vote of around 20% (maybe a little higher) – of voters who will vote that way, regardless of what is happening to the party. We see this reflected in the election numbers when the party crashes for some reason (2002 National; 2014 Labour) They each have another 10% of 'soft' vote (usually vote Labour/National – but can jump ship for tactical reasons, or because they don't like what the party is doing).
Note this group can cross the right/left divide (e.g. 'right' voters voting for Ardern in 2020).
The GP probably has a tribal vote of 4-5%. And again another 3-4% who will usually vote Green – but can be lost to other parties (again for tactical or disenchantment reasons).
ACT might have 1% historically of tribal voters. Although if they maintain their momentum for another couple of elections – this may well shift up to the 5% mark.
NZF (i.e. Winston) historically had around 3% tribal voters. However, these have been dying off – and it's probably around 1% ATM. The bulk of the NZF vote has always been a protest one.
TPM – is really too new to say. The party in its current iteration is quite different to the earlier one – and the voter base has changed as well. Given that their election strategy is a seat-based one, rather than a party vote – it doesn't matter too much. I'd say that, like NZF, the bulk of their vote is a protest vote, rather than tribal loyalty [NB: 'tribal' in a political sense, here]
So: Around 47% of the vote is 'locked' into one party or another. Another 25% is a mobile right/left vote – which can choose to vote tactically, or be disenchanted and protest vote. Leaving around 28% of the vote being truly mobile – no particular loyalty to either right or left philosophies. The group most subject (I think) to capture by glossy policies or leaders.
I know English is not your first language Sabine but do take note of what I said – "up to"!
It varies from anywhere between say 60% and 80%. Voting patterns are not static. They can vary dramatically depending on the political climate of the time. Any stat or poll that claims to be an accurate assessment of general voting percentages is bullshit. Nor even political polls make that assumption.
However, anyone who has been around the political traps for 40 plus years can tell you that the majority of people who change their vote do so within the parameters of 'left' and 'right' political parties. Its the small percentage (up to 10% at most) who do change sides who decide the outcome.
That is what we are discussing so I suggest you stop your silly game playing.
the majority of people who change their vote do so within the parameters of 'left' and 'right' political parties.
Sorry, Anne, but this is rubbish. There is a highly mobile centrist vote (at least 20%) who regularly move between National and Labour (sometimes with NZF or another centrist party in the mix).
That's the political definition of a centrist voter – one that may vote 'right' or 'left' depending on political circumstance.
And the reason that National is a centre/right, and Labour is a centre/left party. Both know that the centrist voters are key to any election.
And another 20%+ who are not tied to any political loyalty at all. This relatively high level of voter mobility is why our political ecology has times when party votes crash.
I doubt we are too far apart on this one. I agree there is a significant group who sit around the so-called centre and are capable of moving left or right but the vast majority remain on one side of the left/right equation.
From my standpoint the so-called centre is an amorphous area where nothing happens. All the action occurs around the periphery with Labour and National taking the bulk of the support.
In theory there may be a political centre but in practice I don't really think it exists. Some people just happen to move over the dividing line depending on the way the wind happens to be blowing on the day.
But then again my standpoint may be coloured by a former career. 🙂
Well, yes, that's what democracy is.
The idiot-down-the-road's vote is worth just as much as your intelligent, politically-nuanced one.
There is no entry bar (apart from age) and no exit condition (apart from serious incarceration). There is no intelligence test, or political awareness test.
Democracy (even the variant MMP democracy) requires political parties to convince the majority of Kiwis to support their policies (or their leaders, if you subscribe to the great man/woman theory of politics). It does not demand an overwhelming consensus of the population (which would probably be unachievable)
If 51% (or whatever the MMP majority is) favours your coalition – that group of parties gets to form a government (and arm-wrestle over which policies get enacted). That is precisely what a democratically elected government is.
Yes – that15-20% of 'mobile' voters (i.e. they don't have tribal loyalty to any one party) – often the derided 'centrist' voters – are the ones who decide elections. [They are also, BTW, the ones who 'waste' votes on unelectable parties]
Indeed that is the *only* way that a government can change – if everyone was tribal – then government would never change (or at least, only generationally, as new voters graduated into the pool)
I believe that we have a civic duty to vote. But I know that view is not universally shared. People choose not to vote for a variety of reasons (everything from apathy to anarchy). And, non-voters don't affect the result.
That mobile vote swept Ardern's government into an unprecedented under MMP absolute majority government in 2020. I don't recall you complaining about democracy, then.
What alternative form of government would you like to see?
if b were to be the majority of votes, leave the last government as a care takers government for a few more month and then vote again, hopefully that would be enough time for the suited ones to come up with policies that represent the wishes and needs of the people rather then the wishes of the needs of the policy writers.
While, intellectually, I like the "none of the above" or "no confidence" option on the ballot paper. In reality, elections are hugely expensive operations – and as a taxpayer I don't really want to have any more than are truly necessary.
If people just don't care – and indicate this at the ballot – their vote hasn't changed anything. I don't feel that this is any way to encourage them to care…..
If people just don't care – and indicate this at the ballot – their vote hasn't changed anything. I don't feel that this is any way to encourage them to care…
It's about making politicians change their policy to better reflect what voters want.
Why would politicians change their policies to appeal to a group of 'don't care' politically disengaged voters?
It's only voters who are going to vote against them that matter electorally.
Under Sabine's scenario, you'd have to have somewhere around 40+% of the electorate voting 'don't care' before the result would cause a new election. I think that it would never happen….
People who care enough to vote – already have plenty of unelectable parties – effectively the spoilt vote scenario. This doesn't inspire them to vote now….
I agree with you. But at some stage we either accept the non voters as the cheap option of 'non of the above' or we find a way to include that into the voting process.
In parliament we have Yes, No, or Abstain, we should have the same right, or at least abolish 'abstain' for any vote in parliament.
People care, but they can't in good conscience vote for any of the above. It is not that their vote has not changed anything, it is that they know/feel that their vote is of no importance.
Maybe that should be addressed before we judge those that no longer want to participate in a system they feel is designed to be simply rubberstamped by voters in order to keep a sheen of legitimacy.
People care, but they can't in good conscience vote for any of the above. It is not that their vote has not changed anything, it is that they know/feel that their vote is of no importance.
I agree that this is true for some voters… some are simply completely uninterested politically at all.
However, simply having a 'no confidence' vote isn't going to inspire them – since, once again, their vote won't have changed anything.
i have never met anyone who is not interested but i have many who simply state that they don't see a difference between any of them. And that is where the political parties fail.
At some stage the failure to attract voters is a problem created by parties who expect people to vote for soundbites and not on the result of their actions.
And partisanship has also something to do with this, and frankly that is a question that some should ask themselves, how many soft voters are now nowhere to be seen thanks to a lot of vitriol coming their way for not sufficiently supporting L and their excesses.
According to twitter, they are to be replaced by the grand Grant Robertson, person beloved my some. thus no J.A effect. That card can't not be played again.
I listened to Bernard Hickey interviewing Danyl McLaughlin on the Kaka (25 mins), first on Fukuyama’s theory of vetocracy then current context here, folks becoming disillusioned with democracy due to leftist failure etc.
Around 22 mins in they got onto something else interesting: Danyl mentioned that mental health reform had failed due to govt doing suitable policy but the public service not having a clue what to do with the funding of it. He said the Infrastructure Commission issued a report to that effect – I never saw that reported in the media.
He's also a narcissistic ex-junkie who traded smack for an addiction to himself, is proud of his own ignorance, and has all the confidence that goes with a lifetime of privilege, excess, and special treatment.
Yep intelligent courageous and despite a fairly acute voice impediment articulate can speak for hours knowledgably off the cuff isnt afraid to say hes wrong or made a mistake or needs to think about something a bit more has humility and compassion [ unlike some !! ]
Yes but if you put them in jail for 5 years that is a million dollars we all have to pay.
Remember the kid has already been on electronically monitored bail for a year, presumably with strict reporting requirements.
If his name becomes known he will be labelled for life-it doesn't exactly help trying to turn him into a useful member of society. Neither does slamming him inside for 5 years.
Remember the kid has already been on electronically monitored bail for a year, presumably with strict reporting requirements.
It seems that the current round of offending before the courts occurred while he was on this strictly monitored bail for previous crimes…. so not very effective, was it….
At the time the man, then 18, was on bail after he was charged with an aggravated robbery, for which he was sentenced in September to home detention.
We have no evidence, either way, whether he has been charged with other crimes committed while on bail for this offence.
He committed this ram raid while on the "electronically monitored bail for a year, presumably with strict reporting requirements." that you mention so a fat lot of good that was!
I believe it costs around $193k a year to keep someone in jail, but having him out in the community is costing a lot more than that.
You and Grannie completely missing the point of judges and a justice system there. What would it look like if your court of public opinion set judicial sentences on the basis of a social media story, or a done-once-over-lightly Herald article, as you are doing here? Not much need for judging then. Just rubber-stamp the writ for hanging.
Clearly the judge had reasons for their sentence that you do not know about.
Drescher says this is a crossroads for many workers, not just actors and screenwriters. She describes the industry as having changed the business model fundamentally with streaming services, while not accepting that the payment structures for creatives need renegotiating. Examples are the lack of residual payments for digital media. AI challenges the future of creatives as well.
I agree disruptor tech needs to be critiqued, challenged, and reigned in because personal profit driven people will always take advantage of artists and workers, but this industrial action is really tough on film crews, many of who are not unionised/syndicated because it’s very expensive in the US. And globally crews have zero worker protection (in NZ see the Hobbit law).
On the surface it seems incongruous for headline wealthy actors to be walking out of London premiers midway because 'they are the victims' but in a way it generates huge publicity for workers rights.
There will be real pain for ordinary film crew workers and their families because of the disruption to productions but the long view is a chance to set some real ground rules for the new era of entertainment consumption, ie streaming, AI content etc.
I went to Indiana Jones: Dial of Destiny the other day and the first 20 mins shows a young Harrison Ford (he's now 81 years old). The first few shots you can tell it's CGI but after that you don't notice. A sign of things to come…
Two examples of AI used to steal from performers, in comments under this video:
Background actors who came in for a multi-day shoot did some scenes on day one, and were 3D-scanned. They were then dismissed and paid only for one day, despite being told beforehand they would be paid for use of their image and movements.
A dancer in a live show filmed for additional distribution had another face pasted over hers by AI and received no income from the distribution of the tape. Under standard condition, use of her image/performance would have needed her signed permission, with associated fee/residual payments.
It’s essential for creatives to get fair payment, as most of the 160,000 AG union members cannot support themselves on their acting work alone, and they have to cover audition and presentation costs.
Gloriavale lawyer interviewed on 3News gave the govt a roasting. He meant the departmental heads involved. Negligence, delinquent behaviour is my framing of his gist. Newshub doesn't have it onsite yet.
He's disgusted the Nat/Lab duopoly have allowed a cult to get away with slavery in Aotearoa. Correctly so, it seems. PM & ministers will look around wildly, going "We're not responsible. Just because it says so in our constitutional law doesn't mean it's true!"
Yeah, that's the one. Funny, I scanned the front page of Newshub last night & again this morning and it wasn't there…
lawyer Dennis Gates said the women shouldn't have had to go to court, rather the Government should have stepped in a long time ago to liberate them from slavery.
Thing is, his critique of Labour hinges on whether it is reasonable or not. I'm agnostic. I can see how the PM may reasonable respond "Their slavery was a matter of opinion which the court decision may have changed. I'll seek advice from our lawyers, but it may require a Supreme Court determination."
Funny, I scanned the front page of Newshub last night & again this morning and it wasn't there…
It was published last night shortly after 7 pm. With the short news cycles, news items get pushed down & off rapidly. To find an item you often have to put some effort into it and search, not simply scroll up & down the main page (aka ‘scanning’).
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Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
Te Rangi e tu nei (The sky above us) Te Papa e takoto nei (The land beneath us) Tatou katoa te hunga ora (To us all the living) Tena koutou katoa (Greetings) ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests. Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone. Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
Last summer when Matairangi burned, Ginny and Tom stood at the window of their lounge, watching kākā shoot skyward from the burning trees. From the distance, they looked to Ginny like pages torn from books and thrown into a bonfire. It was Tom, voice tight, who told her it was ...
Opinion: The Canadian short story writer Alice Munro – winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2013 – died in May at the age of 92. Her work was about “the damage people inflict on one another in the name of love”, Deborah Treisman wrote in the New Yorker. ...
This month marks two years since the most powerful telescope ever built sent its first pictures back to earth. From its lofty vantage point, beyond the moon in orbit around the sun, the James Webb Space Telescope was tuned to observe the first stars and galaxies being born soon after ...
Comment: After Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ preview several weeks ago, I had some optimism about the Government’s emissions reduction plan. Now I’ve read the discussion document, that hope has been dashed. How can the Government propose a plan that wants to take New Zealand taxpayers’ hard-earned money, and spend ...
Christopher Luxon: hurdles The little man from National jumps hurdles in his sleep. He’s quite good at it in his dreams and even though the reality doesn’t quite match up you have to give him credit for getting up every morning and crashing into the very first hurdle of the ...
Comment: It was a good two hours into the conversation when Tyrone Marks raised the most basic of questions when I first spoke to him in 2017. “They didn’t explain the things they did to me. They never told me why. And they still haven’t. There’s no explanation for it. ...
Madeleine Chapman rounds out Death Week on The Spinoff with a final recommendation. You can read all of our Death Week coverage here. Nothing forces you to reflect on your life and relationships quite like proximity to death. For those whose nearest and dearest have died, there are reasonably obvious ...
Whitney Greene takes us through her life in television, including the TV character she’d like to plan a funeral for and her cow lung catastrophe on The Traitors NZ. “If the phone rings, I have to answer it,” Whitney Greene from The Traitors NZ warns as we begin our My ...
Maddie Ballard reviews the debut essay collection of Pōneke writer Flora Feltham.In ‘The Raw Material’, the longest essay in Flora Feltham’s dazzling debut collection, the author heads out for a run after hours of weaving and sees the world turn to textile. “Pounding along the Parade, I saw the ...
Andy Christiansen, one half of the experimental rock-pop duo TRiPS, shares the tunes inspiring the band’s perfect weekend and new release. “Good speakers, good food, good music, no distractions”: that’s all you need to enjoy the psychedelic stylings of TRiPS, a new band formed by Fly My Pretties’ Barnaby Weir ...
Celebrating our quadrennial opportunity to become experts in a bunch of sports we never normally watch.The games of the XXXIII Olympiad are upon us. Paris will host this year’s showcase of sporting and athletic prowess, which means some late-night and early-morning viewing for us in Aotearoa.But what sports ...
The photograph is striking and beautiful, but also disturbing – a reminder that my love for John was often entangled in shame.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.In the spring of 1980, in Dunedin, shortly before his death, someone took a photograph ...
Get to know Babushka, our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Babu’s humans, Jo and Isabel, for their support. Dog name: Babushka (Babu for short) Age: 2Breed: Border Collie X poodleIf rescued, ...
Pacific Media Watch A Lebanese photojournalist who was severely wounded during an Israeli air strike in south Lebanon carried the Olympic torch in Paris this week in honour of her peers who have been wounded and killed in the field — especially in Gaza and Lebanon. Christina Assi of Agence ...
The first report in a five-part web series focused on the 15th Triennial Conference of Pacific Women taking place in the Marshall Islands this week.SPECIAL REPORT:By Netani Rika in Majuro Women continue to fight for justice 70 years after the first nuclear tests by the United States caused ...
Christopher Luxon has joined with Australia and Canada's leaders in voicing support for US President Joe Biden's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The 2022 election brought the “teal wave” into parliament. The next election will test whether teals, who occupy what were Liberal seats, and other independents can maintain their momentum. Joining us on the Podcast ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Musgrave, Senior lecturer in Pharmacology, University of Adelaide Pixavri/Shutterstock A major Federal Court class action has been dismissed this week after Justice Michael Lee ruled there was not enough evidence to prove the weedkiller Roundup causes cancer. Plaintiff Kelvin ...
In The Week in Politics: politicians have to decide what to do about child abuse, Health NZ is booked in for major surgery and Darleen Tana returns. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Corbould, Associate Professor, Contemporary Histories Research Group, Deakin University Mainstream media are surprisingly muted at the prospect of the world’s most powerful nation being led for the first time by a woman – specifically a woman of colour, Vice President Kamala ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Bennett, PhD Student, Associate Research Fellow, Deakin University Last week, a drone delivery company called Wing (owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet) started operating in Melbourne. Some 250,000 residents in parts of the city’s eastern suburbs can now order food from ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Foo, Lecturer, Physiotherapy, Monash University pikselstock/Shutterstock In the next 40 years in Australia, it’s predicted the number of Australians aged 65 and over will more than double, while the number of people aged 85 and over will more than triple. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katrina Grant, Research Associate, Power Institute for Arts and Visual Culture, University of Sydney Jonas Åkerström’s 1790 work, Session of the Accademia dell’Arcadia on August 17 1788.Nationalmuseum/Cecilia Heisser Ever wondered whether you’d have a better chance at winning an Olympic gold ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Jones, Program Lead, Food Governance, George Institute for Global Health wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock On Thursday, Australian and New Zealand food ministers at state, federal and national levels met to thrash out what’s next for health star ratings on packaged foods. Now, after ...
The Abuse in Care report found many Pacific survivors lost their connections to their culture and language, resulting in trauma that has been carried from generation to generation. ...
In the regulatory review, ECC intends to suggest that ERO focus on curriculum delivery reviews rather than the Ministry, because it’s not efficient or effective to have two agencies with radically different approaches climbing over each other. ...
Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori invites the current government to work in partnership with them to develop a pathway forward, including the development of a parallel pathway and meaningful policy and strategy for Kura Kaupapa Māori ...
If you haven’t started watching yet, Tara Ward begs you to reconsider. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. In the world of New Zealand reality television, we have many gems in our crown. There’s the delicious second season of the Celebrity Treasure ...
A new poem by Fiona Kidman. The clothes of the dead I did not keep my mother’s furry red beret for long nor the stringy scarves that adorned the necks of my aunts, although I have kept tag ends of gold, the rings and trinkets they wore, the brooches no ...
The government’s announcement that it will re-open the foreshore and seabed controversy by changing the rules on recognising centuries-old Māori customary title for a third time goes against the rule of law and New Zealand values,” Mr Tipa says. ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Lioness by Emily Perkins (Bloomsbury, $25) Roarrrr! Perkins’ brilliant, award-winning, Marian-Keyes anointed, darkly funny, long ...
The 2004 Act vested ownership of the foreshore and seabed in the Crown, extinguishing any Māori claims to ownership and causing widespread outrage and protests among Māori communities. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antje Deckert, Associate Professor (Criminology), Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Despite the connection between institutional harm and gang membership made clear in this week’s mammoth royal commission abuse-in care report, the government seems unlikely to soften its “get tough on ...
From Lewis Clareburt in the swimming to the start of the rowing – the first seven days of Paris 2024 promise to be big for New Zealand. There are few events that bring the country together quite like an Olympic Games. Nothing quite matches the excitement of getting up in ...
Groundbreaking local science just showed up in the most surprising of places: the season finale of The Kardashians. In the season five finale of The Kardashians last night, several members of the family gathered together in one of their signature empty, cream-coloured rooms to hear test results that had been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University The Middle East is on the brink of a possibly devastating regional war, with hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reaching an extremely dangerous level. Washington has engaged in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Elizabeth Eades, Rheumatologist, Monash University Lupus is an inflammatory autoimmune illness, where the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks itself. Lupus can affect virtually any part of the body, although it most commonly affects the skin, joints and kidneys. The symptoms ...
A law firm that specialises in working with survivors of abuse in State care is disappointed that the Government fails to recognise that its boot camps can be directly compared to previous boot camps from the 1990s and 2000s. ...
Dying is a natural part of life, like updating your Wof or seeing your hairdresser, but without the word-of-mouth recs that help guarantee a good service. What if we changed that? Dying Reviews received by The Spinoff have had the names of organisations redacted while Hospice NZ collects further data. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland Mike Lewinski/Flickr, CC BY On any clear night, if you gaze skywards long enough, chances are you’ll see a meteor streaking through the sky. Some nights, however, are better than others. At ...
Despite having no bars or other designated spaces for lesbians, Auckland boasts a small but mighty lesbian museum. So how did it get here? The past 18 months has brought increasing hostility towards the queer community across Aotearoa. Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull’s anti-trans rally in Tamaki Makaurau last March led to a ...
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The PM has been doing geopolitics. And with some finesse!
Noteworthy is the conceptual link between his second and third statements. If you comprehend his linkage, appreciate the subtlety of the nuance he's using.
Nudge theory has been influential quite a while now. Hints are a traditional part of human discourse, so nudge theory uses them as the basis for tactical influence.
Another thing worth noting about his geopolitical stance is that it deploys a paradox: we are both friend and foe to China simultaneously. Using a paradox to send a geopolitical signal to other nations is extremely sophisticated political behaviour. I wonder who's pulling his strings. Bilderbergers? Not that NATO didn't do so directly, of course, but we don't know that unless he tells us. Perhaps his dance with NATO includes a dance with the truth, in which case default Labour obfuscation could produce a dance with 7 veils. Traditional cultural play, so likely to appeal to the PM as a true conservative…
If Hipkins or any future PM wanted to do 'honest broker' work with China, he could figure out how to persuade China to get into the CPTPP.
That's an actual prize of use to all, rather than reciting endless lists of threats real or imagined.
Would be more use than Blinken popping over to China again to get his butt kicked as he is shortly on climate measures.
Yeah, you're not wrong but I'm agnostic on any updated TPP, the devil being in the detail. Speaking of which, note the warning about the devil issued by Xi's underling to Aotearoa (reported in that link above).
Ultimately God's will will prevail & since he's omnipotent and omniscient the devil will act accordingly. Theologians are always strangely quiet on this topic…
Blinken seems a typical Democrat thus far, straight out of the classic mould. No sign of him growing into the job.
Imagine if the Greens had an export policy aimed at growing wealth, not just a more-tax policy.
Nurturing a/the local fake/lab-grown meat industry… would seem to make sense..
For reasons green…for export..and to service the local market..
Anyone got any better ideas..?
Stop hiking the OCR and therefore stop encouraging the NZ$ exchange rate to increase, if you want to boost exporters. This is the fundamental basis for Germany's trade success, they have been either part of an exchange rate or monetary union which lowers their exchange rates in relation to other neighbour economies (for 40+ years). NZ is not part of such a union and as a developed economy isn't going to compete on price with other still developing economies in Asia.
Interesting. How the RB uses the OCR for leverage is fundamental to neolib economic practice & the essence of Nat/Lab common ground.
Your dissent, does it indicate an alternative ideology you can name?? If so, could be a game-changer.
I wouldn't particularly name this as any alternative ideology. I just think its important to recognize that the same kinds of politicians and commentators who are supposedly in favour of exporters are also cheering often whenever the exchange rate hits at new peek. I think only Winston Peters ever released an official policy position at any time.
Also its not exactly dissent from my point of view. I'm highlighting that NZ is not that geared up for exports primarily and doesn't really commit to that kind of policy without these kinds of contradictions anyway. NZ mostly runs current account deficits and that's fine but could do better at recognizing the effects of that.
You're on fire today Ad; it is more accurately a less-tax policy as it would result in 95% of people getting a tax cut, but you keep banging that drum, it sure distracts from what Labour have said they'll do!
Taxing unearned wealth is an incentive to "invest" in real wealth building, including export earning business, instead of speculation focused on pushing prices of existing assets into the stratosphere.
The Greens tax policy may well do more for our overall wealth, than any number of Corporate welfare (free trade agreements).
But this did not apply to The Greens wealth tax. It was going to tax farms, businesses including taxing export earning businesses.
KJT I think we need a definition of what 'real wealth building' is. I for one would have thought investing in a export businesses in shares in export businesses. Or are you meaning a growth in Govt bonds say an opportunity to invest in tied capital raising by the govt to say pay for roads or specific programmes.
This used to be a quite attractive investment for civic minded people who did not mind a slightly less than market rates, with the difference being a combination of feel good plus security of investment.
Shanreagh. Businesses, real businesses, already pay tax. I invested in business and pay tax on income at my marginal rate. This will add buggerrall to my tax apart from a few percent at the margin which Ihave no problem paying so others can live a little better.
Those that are in the business of land speculation or the "chain in the river" rental income, that takes without adding to real wealth, however. https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/13-03-2022/sunday-essay-the-chain-across-the-river “The landlords aren’t doing anything useful for that extra money. They’re just using political power to extract value from the productive economy, same as the lord chaining his river. And when the artificial scarcity of housing drives up property values then all homeowners extract rent from people trying to enter the market, who have to pay inflated prices. The quality of the housing hasn’t gone up. (The quality of our housing stock is mostly terrible.) It just costs more”.
Taxing unearned income streams such as "Capital gains tax farming" would long term have benefited farming and other businesses, by reducing the cost of land for farming, business rentals and premises, and the hemorrhaging of farm income to banks, that pays the interest on inflated land prices.
Farms are now technically loss making businesses, expecting to only make a profit when the land is sold, because their is no way farm income can cover the interest cost on the land. Leading to over stocking, soil depletion and other effects of having to cover excessive interest bills. Only the banks and finance interests gain long term.
Thanks KJT.
I'm aware that businesses pay tax.
I'm also aware that export businesses provide the lifeblood of NZ. They bring new money into the country. We (Govt) should support any business that does this. We (citizens) should be behind any Govt that recognises the important role of exporting..
I have never said or implied that land speculators are export businesses or bring new money into the economy.
I was hoping you would have had comments on the ideas of Govt Bonds being a postive mechanism for people to invest in NZ![smiley smiley](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/regular_smile.png?x42494)
Our Goverments have largely signed away the ability to help our export businesses, in favour of so called " free trade agreements" which have sacrificed most of our export businesses for the "sacred cow" of dairy commodity exports, which has questionable long term net benefits.
Government bonds are a legitimate way of investing in the countries future. Noting that gains on them are already taxed.
KJT, fabulous exposé on NZ's rentier capitalism. Thanks for putting that link up. All explained in a nutshell.
There is a problem with the taxing of "unrealised gains" which has still to be addressed in both the Greens and TOP's wealth tax proposals.
Noting that you get taxed on interest earned from monetary investments, and share dividends, even if you don't "realise" withdraw, the money.
It would be simpler to tax at realisation, such as inheritance or sale, and much easier to determine values. Then loopholes such as "gifting" need to be addressed.
The "family home" is another glaring loophole. Key's 10 million "family home" is just one example. I can see every child in a wealthy family with a "family home". Setting a threshold such as two million per person makes it harder to make such a loophole. A million per person automatically exempts most "family homes". Two million leaves most peoples savings untaxed.
Lastly. Reducing the huge deadweight cost and mis-directed speculation, sorry, investment, on our economy, of inflation of existing assets caused by speculation driven by unequal tax treatment, is essential for all our future.
My points exactly. Until the "unrealised gains" are crystallised by sale or inhertance it is taxing on book or notional values.
Noting that "book values" are part of our tax system already. Depreciation on business assets, for example, which is then adjusted on their sale.
Greens do allow defferral to realisation which will obviously be adjusted to actual sale prices.
What I do like is the principle.
That earnings, from owning wealth, is taxed same as income from productive work.
Adam Smith, the Capitalist guru, would agree with that one.
In fact, he believed rentiers should be taxed, not workers.
The rest is details to be ironed out when it comes into practice.
But then they'd be on the wavelength of the BlueGreens. That line of thinking was used by Guy Salmon in his book Green Tiger 30 years ago.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/123836390/proud-history-of-collaboration-for-veteran-environmentalist
He was competing with us during the early '90s – Stephen Rainbow left us, joined him & Gary Taylor to try a blue-green political party:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Green_Party_(New_Zealand)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Rainbow
If only Labour had a policy to reverse the Neo-Liberal disaster inflicted on us since 1984.
Had some hopes, but Hipkins just dashed them again, in favour of tinkering around the edges with policies NACT will reverse in a heartbeat.
Fucking gutless Labour, strikes again.
Your labels are a waste of time.
Since 2008 Labour has run a low-unemployment highly subsidised export economy, and done so better than most other OECD countries.
They have also continued to trash the environment..
And to do s.f.a. about ending poverty…
(Something j.ardern ..(with a catch in her voice)…vowed to do..eh..?)
Labour since '84…
..have been neoliberal-incrementalist..
..to their core..
chippy is just the latest do-nothing political iteration of that poxy ideology..
Given the opportunity to set policy towards a more progressive future Labour "baulked at the fence" again.
Labour has again failed to institute and defend more progressive policy.
Which makes you wonder if their heart is really in it?
When the right wing say Labour "squandered" their time in power they mean that Labour spent on people other than themselves. What Labour has really squandered is opportunity to reset the future for everyone. The only positive is that it is still better than NACT "competently" stealing our future.
I agree Ad. While I have been critical that more was not done on reversing things like the energy sell-off I accept that it would be an enormously complex undertaking.
I think the value of not being dead and also running a low unemployment model is worth megabucks. The scourge of unemployment & the move to keep high employment rates is something worth fighting for.
Rightist Govts often use rates of unemployment to crudely make progress ie to get money into their supporters hands they are willing to tolerate a higher rate of unemployment
The govts in the 80s & 90s altered the relationships and rights of workers drastically and this work by the Labour govt helps workers.
Michael Woods and his work will have a long lasting effect.
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/major-step-towards-fairer-system-new-zealand-workers
Fair Pay Agreements were a 2020 Labour manifesto commitment, which we have extensively consulted on, taking a balanced approach to the final design,” Michael Wood said.
Name the subsidies, please. Film-making is the only one I can think of with overt subsidies.
Wot kjt said…
The patriarchy strikes back: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300927567/italians-outraged-after-judge-allows-10-seconds-groping-rule
The notion that judges get it right is extremely traditional, even if crazy. So we can assume a resurgence of the patriarchy in Italy. Will it become contagious?
Macho art critics could become a thing here quite easily, eh? Those Maori carvings of erections are extremely traditional, so one can imagine the possibility of pakeha finally getting over 19th century puritanical values and embracing an iconic macho stance.
In that case, if that 17 yo grabbed and squeezed the custodian's balls for 10 seconds, then, no damage or crime either. Fair's fair.
A kick in the balls often works better though: "Yer honour, God made me do it. I'm a good catholic so I had to obey."![wink wink](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/wink_smile.png?x42494)
https://i.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/132546099/government-admits-it-made-a-mistake-when-keeping-a-lid-on-the-carbon-price?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=discover&utm_campaign=CCwqGQgwKhAIACoHCAowzLiSCzDT-KcDMMCV0gEwzP3uAQ&utm_content=bullets
The ets farce rolls on,
Ardern proves to have been all talk when it came to climate change action,
The ETS is a Green Party James Shaw system beginning to end.
There's no weaseling out of it.
True if you focus on the mastermind producing the design but spare a thought for the practice of responsible government – our constitutional praxis. Cabinet agreed to the policy. Therefore it is a Labour/Green solidarity position.
No need to weasel, so long as James is able to use leverage to tweak the thing. Best to point to the market failure. Neolibs are in perpetual denial when it comes to market failures even when surrounded by them. Eyes tight shut. One must get up close with a megaphone & point it at their ears and yell into it. He will have to do so.
Weasel bullshit, as useful as saying that Budget 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and 23 is Green policy. Or any other Cabinet level decision.
Shaw has had 2 terms to make any distinction between himself and beige custard. Shaw is through and through a market-focused solution guy. Which is if course why they are solid at 8% now not crashing: they don't scare the horses. Even Hosking gives him an easy ride.
Given that the ETS was developed and introduced by the Fifth Labour Government in 2008 and James Shaw entered parliament in 2014, it certainly seems that someone's trying to weasel out of something here, but it's not the Greens.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_Emissions_Trading_Scheme
Oh please. James Shaw drafted the law, was and is the Minister responsible for the policy, got all sides of Parliament except Act to agree, and implemented it. Do yourself a solid and just take an ounce of responsibility.
That's just not true though.
In the 2014 Election when Shaw first entered parliament, the Greens policy was a Carbon Tax. Labour and National wanted a market, which is what they made.
‘Take the responsibility’ you say of a minister outside of cabinet. Very very normal, and not at all panicked lashing out.
Looks like Ad is differentiating between Shaw's update law & that original ETS enactment. Market failure resulted both times…
Shane Jones was Minister for Climate Change all along, apparently.
Obviously Some Other Guy praised his guidance of the Carbon Zero Act through parliament in his own Parliamentary bio.
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/minister/biography/james-shaw
And it wasn’t the Greens that were in charge of getting the legislation through Parliament at all.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/combined/HansDeb_20200602_20200602_20
Probably some other Minister for Climate Change being taken to court for his own scheme being inconsistent with his own carbon reduction targets.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/489579/climate-change-minister-taken-to-court-over-emissions-trading-scheme-cabinet-decision
Was obviously Some Other Guy being told by the Commission in writing how crap his own policy was under the Climate Change Response Act.
https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/public/Advice-to-govt-docs/16-02-2023-Letter-from-Dr-Rod-Carr-to-Minister-James-Shaw-ETS-Settings.pdf
Not sure why the Greens want further Cabinet positions if they can’t take responsibility for the primary Cabinet position they wanted in the first place.
this is stupid. The Greens have limited power. If they'd had their way they would have developed a different kind of system for NZ's climate response. But they didn't have that power, so they worked with what they could.
Shaw doesn't have a magic wand to force Labour to change Labour policy nor to get GP policy implemented and it's really weird that you keep pretending that he does.
thanks for this. I never got my head around the ETS because polluter pays is a very poor form of climate action. It's my memory that the Greens had to swallow a bitter pill on the ETS because they didn't have the power to get something better through. I'd like to write a post on this, do you have any further thoughts or links? I will need to understand the scheme and the history.
I think it is a pragmatic acceptance that since both Labour and National govts maintained it, improving the existing ETS would have more permanence and therefore effectiveness.
Here's an example prior to that in 2014 when they still advocated scrapping it:
https://www.greens.org.nz/new-multi-million-dollar-bill-taxpayers-under-failed-ets
Here is James Shaw praising a rising carbon price, while also saying it is insufficient and still too low, and advocating for a carbon tax in 2016:
https://www.greens.org.nz/govt-has-opportunity-rebuild-new-zealands-carbon-market
In 2022 Shaw addressed some of the history while announcing the changes the current government made to the ETS. There is still an emphasis on a more effective pricing structure:
https://www.greens.org.nz/big_emitters_will_have_to_do_more_to_cut_emissions
There's likely more instances in news archives too.
Excellent, thank-you.
Here's the 2014 policy intro pages for the Climate Protection Plan.
https://web.archive.org/web/20200115165424/https://www.greens.org.nz/climate_protection
I can't find the full policy document, but guess it was similar to the one for teh 2017 election,
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/beachheroes/pages/9592/attachments/original/1573442488/policy-climate_protection_plan.pdf
Also useful here is the 1.2B tree planting plan, which ended up being fucked with by NZF and Labour.
@ arkie…
Boom…!
Heh..!
(Tho I have always thought the ets was a crock..)
And Labour latched onto it, and supported it, and the Greens are – other the Shaw / Davidson – no where in government.
So it may be that Shaw is the birther of the scheme, but Labour then adopted it. Labour is currently the Government with a full Majority.
There is no weaseling out of it.
This comes up when you put ETS and Labour into the Google machine.
https://www.labour.org.nz/environment
https://www.labour.org.nz/release-labours-next-steps-to-reduce-climate-emissions
or maybe Shaw was just the surrogate and Labour the buying parent. As you wish, but that shite is bi-partisan, and its Labour and their Green surrogates.
I think the talk came before the realisation….and may well be the reason for stepping aside.
The NZ ETS was not develped de novo in a vacuum. I'd say, look to trends and political pressures internationally at the time – and at which consulting firms pushed the government towards this option.
"Ardern proves to have been all talk when it came to climate change action,"
3.2 is my response
https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2023/07/an-extraordinary-promise.html?m=1
Another unnecessary green party policy that'll cost more votes than it earns.
Maori are quiet capable of buying anything they want in nz, if they can raise the funds,
The biggest limiting factor is the multiple ownership modal they have on rural land limiting the ability to raise capital.
It's vitally important that left-wingers signal a virtue to everyone. It's what they were born to do. They can't be authentic without doing so! https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/suasion
Exploration is not a bad thing. Explorers have mana traditionally. Heroic adventuring into the wild Green yonder is also fun.
Love the grab-bag of RW slogans I see you sprinkle into your comments. Struggling with what idea you're trying to communicate with the slogan 'virtue signalling' here. What do you actually mean to say?
No big deal, merely irony. That you see me recycling RW slogans is perception – the accuracy of those being more to the point. Note the moral guidance of suasion. That inherent part of leftism is a valid component. It signals useful common ground and is therefore an eternal survival skill for humans.
Despite that sensibility, leftists defaulting into banality when talking at people rather than to them is a herding drift that they often use to render themselves politically impotent. I try to be helpful by pointing to it every now & then…
That is a well-argued piece from trotter…
And the green policy makes sense…
Both in righting historical wrongs..and in making economic sense ..
Giving local iwi/hapu the right of first refusal on formerly owned land they seem significant..
As trotter points out this would not be price-setting in any shape or form..
That iwi/hapu purchases would meet the market price…
What's to argue against there..?
(And I see this column was published in the otago local rag..
That'll have them clutching their pearls in unison..in the deep/racist south..)
Until it is and how can enforce it?. If they have first right of refusal, can the vendor refuse if they offer too low a price or will they have to accept any offer – or will they have to go to court to be allowed any other offer if the Iwi/hapu offer is to low, and how could that be legislated and who would enforce it.
You can hope, but then hope costs nothing and generally has no worth other then it makes one feel better for a moment until reality hits again square in the face.
What this reminds me of the Landreforms in Eastern Europe/Germany during the times of the Communists and to some extend in West Germany.
The communist Bodenreform in East Germany nationalised all private property exceeding an area of 100 hectares (247 acres), and redistributed it to publicly owned estates.[15]
On part for the refusal to pay out any damages etc is simply the understanding that you can't undo and go back to the past, and at the same time you can not burden any other new generation with the costs of the past, and that to destroy the current for the past makes no sense.
Sometimes what is done is done.
this might be a good read on that decision of the courts.
https://core.ac.uk/reader/232702770
A Bitter Inheritance: East German Real Property and the Supreme Constitutional Court's "Land Reform" Decision of April 23, 1991 Constitutional Court's "Land Reform" Decision of A
What are we trying to achieve here should be the first question, second would be does it benefit all or just a select few, if it only benefits a select few is it then not against the greater good for all? Or we go full Zimbabwe. That too would be an option.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reform_in_Zimbabwe#:~:text=Land%20reform%20in%20Zimbabwe%20officially,superior%20political%20and%20economic%20status.
"White european colonist extracts fortune from Antipodes, retires to Europe"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/marc-ellis-on-why-hes-leaving-nz-rugbys-problems-razor-and-world-cup-concerns/CSULXAD3CRARTL3ZTHWGJ22G5A/
As I have said before, if Pakeha resent being called settlers, then they should stop behaving like it.
Don’t subscribe to the Herald.
What does Ellis say?
Moving out of where you are at retirement age (or thereabouts) to where you think you'll be happy is a basic Kiwi instinct. Call it neocolonial if you want.
Yes some go further than others and good on them.
Is this just another manifesto of Tall Poppy Syndrome and the politics of envy? Horrible whatever it is.
I have every admiration for the likes of Marc Ellis and do not begrudge him his good fortune. he was a talented sports figure, built his juice empire…….good on him.
I somehow think that an intensive updating of knowledge about the history of kiwi home ownership & its importance to Kiwi battlers from the year dot would be a good thing. Perhaps along with Civics we can get this in the school curricula.
Why is it horrible to point out that he can buy a cheaper house in Italy, that food in Italy is cheaper then here, that he feels alienated by his country? That he no longer feels welcome in his own country due to various reasons.
I mean if he were the only one leaving i would say maybe…..
but,
The net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 23,500, the highest since the October 2013 year.12/05/2023
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/05/migration-numbers-new-zealand-records-net-gain-of-65-000-people-but-a-large-number-of-kiwis-leaving.html#:~:text=The%20net%20migration%20loss%20of,since%20the%20October%202013%20year.
and i would like to point out that those that leave are the ones that have the skill set, the youth, the money, the connection. And to make up for it we employ lots of people from elsewhere, i guess that is the future 'settler' generation, after all they migrated here and 'settled'?
How on earth can you really justify calling someone who was born into this country a 'settler'.- I man can you even in any meaningful term define 'settler'?
Pakeha in most people mind means New Zealander born to the country not of Maori ethnicity.
Pretty much all of Maori have settlers blood in them. Who is the purest then, and at what stage can a Maori be a settler, is that like African Americans dabbling in White Supremacy?
How big is the percentage of Maori that are married to their settler overlords and have children?
The white, brown, asian children born into this country should have the right to be not insulted by being called settler (implying some sort of inherited 'oppressor' status) by people who want to feel righteous and who like to bask in the purifying light of moral supremacy. Until of course these righteous settlers are happy to leave, after all this is not heir country. And that would include anyone of us who is not sufficiently maori, and who much % of Maori must one have to be sufficiently pure? Just asking, cause as a German i can't really put my finger on it, but……..it feels vaguely familiar.
See, I don't identify as a Pakeha. I am not. I am german, born in germany, raised in the culture etc etc etc, I am like that Maori Guy that lives in my hometown with his German wife and his German/Maori son an 'expat' or an immigrant. So I really don't identify with all that settler crap that is designed to put down todays white, non maori/pi brown kids and asian kids down a nudge as an intruder of sorts.
I also have a place to go to, should that settler crap here explode and become mean as it seems to go atm, do you? Are you enough Tangata Whenua to not be considered a settler? How racially pure are you Sanctuary.
As for the tone of his reasoning for leaving, it resonates with many, and we are losing our best to OZ and any other country that will have them, to import the cheapest laborer we can find in asia. Go figure.
It is a pretty straight forward rule to me. Is your relationship with your homeland transactional or unconditional? Like all of us, Ellis won huge in the lottery of birth – the country he was born into, the genetics he was blessed with that made him a skilled athlete and the infrastructure that existed to allow to achieve his full potential. By all means, he should go and enjoy your wealth as you see fit. But a thank you and a bit of humility and love for his country would be nice, don’t you think?
NZ made him a rich man – yet his relationship remians entirely transactional and transitory and he feels the need to dump on the place before he buggers off. It is this entitled, transitory and transactional mindset that irks me and for me sets apart the settler and colonist from the native. You find few Maori who feel the need to bag the country in public, even when they migrate for better jobs or opportunites. Taika Waititi might be clear eyed enough to know NZ is "racist as" but it doesn't stop him showing his affection for the people of this land in "Hunt for the Wilderpeople".
Ask yourself this – is there any real, material difference between Ellis's attitude to his homeland and one displayed by any number of Victorians and Edwardians, who having made their fortune in extracting wealth in the colonies retired with their money to live the life of leisured gentlemen in London?
You can also read it as a vote of no confidence in National and ACT though, eh? Isn't that a better way of seeing his move? Since his explanation isn't visible.
Ask yourself this – is there any real, material difference between Ellis's attitude to his homeland and one displayed by any number of foreigners, who having made their fortune in extracting wealth in the colonies retired with their money to live the life of leisured gentlemen in Wanaka? 🙂
Now that is the problem, you don't ask yourself why a born and bred Kiwi, who made good money and made the country good money, leaves his comfortable life here to start a new comfortable life elsewhere. I mean the sunshine is a reason, but its not the only one.
Fact is that he is one of the few lucky that can just retire, and that will be given citizenship in Italy, as they clearly see him as a law abiding gentlemen, with his family, bringing money and a bit of prestige to a i Italian town, maybe he even coaches a youth club or something. Who knows.
What you prefer to not mention is the 25.299 others that are also leaving, Maori and 'Settler' alike, for the same reason to any country that will have them, whilst we are trying to import as cheap a laborer as we can find to make up for the shortfall.
Cheaper housing, cheaper food, better services, and hopefully no constant divide and conquer on the grounds of race, which for the most part of NZ'lers mean a mix of maori and 'settler'. That is why people leave. And you who has nothing of substance to that point say trot out your idiotic last century talking points about colonies and settlers. Mind me asking, did you get a Lolly with that critical race theory? .
Young people with education, and those with money are voting with their feet.
Highest number since 2013. That would be at John Key level. Well done Labour, you have achieve equality.
I remember hearing when young, "The party's boring, I'm going."
Which often seemed a way of saying "The party's boring, and I don't have the ability or personality to make it not boring. I'll go somewhere else where someone else will provide an environment for me that I find not boring."
Another aspect of the Mark Ellis perspective: He is like many career sports journalists who moan about rules in the game of rugby. I have yet to see one come out with their 'book of laws and rules' for the game. Whingeing from the sideline? Plenty of that. Sit down and come up with a comprehensive re-write (with some from the multitude of discontented) and use their influence and reach to try to get change? No way. It's easier to chip and run. To the backblocks, or Italy.
25 thousand people as per the current stats – the highest since 2013 are feeling that the party is boring.
Well done Labour for organizing such a boring piss up that either no one shows up in the first place or those that did leave early to other shores.
well done.
How many of those are returning offshore, After coming back for the relative safety and tax subsidised health care during covid?
Nope that was net migration outwards as per the Government.
No one is coming back really, but many leave. Heck, even the Maori leave – the young ones. Better money, healthcare, and education, houses and cheaper food. All good reasons to leave.
Migration, in most cases is driven by economic decisions, that is why people from Asia like to come here, and that is why people from here like to go to OZ or elsewhere in the search of Opportunity and wealth.
You have those that are coming into the country with spouses, but would they have migrated here if they had not married a kiwi? Chances are not.
Kiwis are migrating away from NZ in order to seek a better more affordable future elsewhere and it would behoove us all to even just consider why they do that. Rather then go in a rant about colonists coming to make holidays in the colonies or other such assorted academic bullshit.
Read here
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/05/migration-numbers-new-zealand-records-net-gain-of-65-000-people-but-a-large-number-of-kiwis-leaving.html#:~:text=The%20net%20migration%20loss%20of,since%20the%20October%202013%20year
Pfft. People come and people go. Not everyone gets on with their birth family, or suits the temperament of their birth culture. Some are ambitious and see better chances for themselves elsewhere. Not much point in trying to get the leavers to stay.
However, I agree that putting the boot in before you slam the door on your way out is ungracious.
I got myself into a bit of trouble with the mods yesterday using output from Chat GPT
On reflection, I think the criticism was fair enough. I asked it to produce a list of studies which I didn't bother to investigate which I should have.
But one of the big weaknesses I can see (confirmed by Chat GPT itself, asking it today) is that it is unable to access the full studies if these are not publicly available. Therefore, it may not be aware of weaknesses in those studies, or how directly applicable they are.
This probably isn't such an issue with well investigated areas, as it will be able to access relevant text books etc I suspect. But, in those areas, there probably isn't much need to ask Chat GPT anyway. Though, I think it is best to use that output as a starting point, rather than as the final word on anything.
But in more obscure areas, I think any output from Chat GPT needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
Because Chat GPT seems almost omnipresent, it is easy to assume it knows everything. But, this clearly isn't the case.
This is educational for all TS commenters!
Always check what ChatGPT or similar generates. It can and does make up stuff (BS), including links. Click on the links, check that they are real, and check that the info matches the burbles generated by ChatGPT. This is critical when you are in unfamiliar topic territory (NB incorrect title, authors, publication/journal name, or date/year are signs that it was made up or at least part of it – you won’t know which part)
ChatGPT is not a magical key or wand that gets past (most) firewalls or subscriptions. If you cannot see the full text then ChatGPT cannot either. However, ChatGPT has no shame or moral handbrake on filling in the blanks and generate something plausible. (NB it sounds plausible because it is probable text based on its training set, but this does not make it correct or even accurate)
ChatGPT has an in-built bias because it was trained on a biased training set.
ChatGPT responds to your prompts; different prompts generate different burbles.
ChatGPT is a powerful tool when used correctly but it can also be a formidable weapon in the wrong hands. TS Mods will follow a hard line against misuse and abuse of AI tools for political gain, such as propagating talking points & propaganda or dumping large amounts of unchecked (and unlinked) misinformation.
This site is for robust political debate and all commenters are expected to take ownership & responsibility of their comments. TS is not a notice board or a free-for-all forum to indulge your personal pet projects with a plethora of copy-pasta and spam the site with your favourite links to your preferred sites (aka spamming or link-whoring). When you copy & paste ChatGPT burble, for example, it becomes your burble (aka your baby) and you must defend it accordingly.
The opinion of others rarely matters (much) here and you cannot hide behind the opinions or comments of others; it is considered bad-faith. In general, for the sake of robust debate, the only opinions that matter here are the ones expressed & debated by commenters (and Authors), as they are the only people who exist on this site. (NB we cannot debate with a person who’s not commenting here nor can that person explain or defend themselves if they are not active on this site – this should be as obvious as an open door)
Remember this when you use ChatGPT or similar. It will be a learning curve for all, but ignorance is not an excuse.
Apparently it's both sexist & leftist:
The style & tone modifier provided to users seems to portend a dimension of idiosyncrasy – almost whimsical potential, if you include that with the capacity to dissent from favoured views as mentioned above.
Seems likely to add a surreal dimension at the leading edge, which will seep into the mainstream in ratio to the number of users.
Currently it has 200 million users, up from 100 million in January: https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/chatgpt-number-of-users
Bing AI seems pretty decent and it gives answers with hyperlinked references. It will admit that its answers are not guaranteed to be 100% accurate
Hyperlinks are generally genuine but URLs are often bogus.
Looks like law clerks could lose part of their duties…
I wonder how long it will take till one of these gizmos gets to provide testimony on case law in court. Soon as we hear of top US legal firms using this system to expedite precedent research we'll know it won't take much longer.
'Government by swing voters". Otherwise known as "focus groups".
It is obvious that our laughable, "Representative Democracy" is going to result in policy that somewhere between 53% and 80% of voters polled, want! is being dumped in favour of policy to sway approximately 10% of voters, that will swing between Labour and National.
You've never participated in consultation or market testing before?
Might want to try it.
I don't reset my core principles by "market testing"!
It's called selling out
Pretty sad KJT but it is reality.
Up to 80% of the electorate support left or right leaning political parties. The levels of 'left' and 'right' might change but that is roughly what happens. Up to 20% 'don't know' for a variety of reasons but mostly because they don't bother to take an interest. Some of those 'don't knows' make up their minds on polling day or in the days leading up to it. The rest don't vote.
Yet 'they' are usually the ones who decide the outcome which pretty much defeats the purpose of a democratically elected government.
Pretty much confirms that any idea we have a Democracy, is illusory.
Your last point is worthwhile considering at length. Everyone ought to. Imagine if the govt set up a website called Public Opinion. Framed it to elicit feedback on current issues. Allowed crowd-sourced wisdom to tweak that framing by demand, driven by numbers dissenting in ratio to numbers favouring govt framing.
If the tech design & system worked out right, we'd all get a user interface with direct democracy. We couldn't compel the govt – but we could provide a useful simulation of the overall public mood on issues. Way better than focus groups!!
Ha! Immediately subject to capture by those politically invested in the outcome of any one vote. Not to mention the political framing of the question to start with (who gets to decide this, I wonder)
Given that we can't persuade voters to come out and cast their ballot once every 3 years – what would make you think that we could get people to invest their time more regularly? Especially after the first time, they didn't get the outcome they wanted.
Anyone who's been involved in market surveys and focus groups, knows the challenge they face to get ongoing participation…..
It seems much like governing by referendum….. And we've all seen the dubious outcomes those can generate….
Valid points but seems to me the incentive-structure does enable participatory democracy to an indicative extent. Sort of organised virtue-signalling, but in a methodica design. If you chartered a public service organisation to administer the interface, you could insert a clause in their employment contracts requiring them to design and operate it in accord with the public interest.
That kind of pragmatic consensus-generating model usually works due to the extent of common ground becoming evident to all players. It is essentially an activist-driven arena.
I'd advocate, for instance, a class-based module within the overall system, plus an identity-politics module as well, leaving it flexible enough to respond to other crowd-sourced framings too. Those to be incorporated when surpassing a threshold of activation to be consensually decided…
I think, however, you are wildly over-estimating the willingness of the general NZ public to participate. The TS commentariat is a wild outlier in terms of general political engagement.
Have you been monitoring the progress of Action Station? Since launch, I mean, around a decade or so back (I was involved in designing it prior to that). Last I noticed the membership count it was several thousand.
Unfortunately it got captured by left-wingers early but it still has leverage on politics and sometimes gets results from collective pressure that even I have been able to feel good about.
My point is that the system I propose caters for all shades of political opinion & tribalism gets relegated into holistic context.
Dennis Frank, sounds a little like Switzerland's semi-direct democracy
'Switzerland features a system of government not seen in any other nation: direct representation, sometimes called half-direct democracy (this may be arguable, because theoretically, the sovereign of Switzerland is actually its entire electorate). Referendums on the most important laws have been used since the 1848 consitution.
'Amendments to the Federal Constitution of Switzerland, the joining of international organisations, or changes to federal laws that have no foundation in the constitution but will remain in force for more than one year must be approved by the majority of both the people and the cantons, a double majority.
'Any citizen may challenge a law that has been passed by parliament. If that person is able to gather 50,000 signatures against the law within 100 days, a national vote has to be scheduled where voters decide by a simple majority of the voters whether to accept or reject the law.'
The cantons are parts of the federal system that have their own decision-making power.
Indeed. I recall making a similar comment on their system onsite here a while back actually. However blending it with high tech design and a user-interface seems the best way to go. I read a book called User Friendly from the library and it emphasised the role of design in operational systems, and how that could produce optimal engagement of people. Made Apple top corporation globally.
Can you support your claim of up to 80% support this. Please. I would like to see that poll or stats. Thanks.
My take on this is that 80% is way too high.
I'd say that both Labour and National have a tribal vote of around 20% (maybe a little higher) – of voters who will vote that way, regardless of what is happening to the party. We see this reflected in the election numbers when the party crashes for some reason (2002 National; 2014 Labour) They each have another 10% of 'soft' vote (usually vote Labour/National – but can jump ship for tactical reasons, or because they don't like what the party is doing).
Note this group can cross the right/left divide (e.g. 'right' voters voting for Ardern in 2020).
The GP probably has a tribal vote of 4-5%. And again another 3-4% who will usually vote Green – but can be lost to other parties (again for tactical or disenchantment reasons).
ACT might have 1% historically of tribal voters. Although if they maintain their momentum for another couple of elections – this may well shift up to the 5% mark.
NZF (i.e. Winston) historically had around 3% tribal voters. However, these have been dying off – and it's probably around 1% ATM. The bulk of the NZF vote has always been a protest one.
TPM – is really too new to say. The party in its current iteration is quite different to the earlier one – and the voter base has changed as well. Given that their election strategy is a seat-based one, rather than a party vote – it doesn't matter too much. I'd say that, like NZF, the bulk of their vote is a protest vote, rather than tribal loyalty [NB: 'tribal' in a political sense, here]
So: Around 47% of the vote is 'locked' into one party or another. Another 25% is a mobile right/left vote – which can choose to vote tactically, or be disenchanted and protest vote. Leaving around 28% of the vote being truly mobile – no particular loyalty to either right or left philosophies. The group most subject (I think) to capture by glossy policies or leaders.
Good analysis.![yes yes](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/thumbs_up.png?x42494)
I know English is not your first language Sabine but do take note of what I said – "up to"!
It varies from anywhere between say 60% and 80%. Voting patterns are not static. They can vary dramatically depending on the political climate of the time. Any stat or poll that claims to be an accurate assessment of general voting percentages is bullshit. Nor even political polls make that assumption.
However, anyone who has been around the political traps for 40 plus years can tell you that the majority of people who change their vote do so within the parameters of 'left' and 'right' political parties. Its the small percentage (up to 10% at most) who do change sides who decide the outcome.
That is what we are discussing so I suggest you stop your silly game playing.
Sorry, Anne, but this is rubbish. There is a highly mobile centrist vote (at least 20%) who regularly move between National and Labour (sometimes with NZF or another centrist party in the mix).
That's the political definition of a centrist voter – one that may vote 'right' or 'left' depending on political circumstance.
And the reason that National is a centre/right, and Labour is a centre/left party. Both know that the centrist voters are key to any election.
And another 20%+ who are not tied to any political loyalty at all. This relatively high level of voter mobility is why our political ecology has times when party votes crash.
I doubt we are too far apart on this one. I agree there is a significant group who sit around the so-called centre and are capable of moving left or right but the vast majority remain on one side of the left/right equation.
From my standpoint the so-called centre is an amorphous area where nothing happens. All the action occurs around the periphery with Labour and National taking the bulk of the support.
In theory there may be a political centre but in practice I don't really think it exists. Some people just happen to move over the dividing line depending on the way the wind happens to be blowing on the day.
But then again my standpoint may be coloured by a former career. 🙂
Well, I'd have to say that you're pretty much alone in the political sphere in thinking that a group of centrist voters doesn't exist.
I know that English is not my first language in fact it is my third, but well done for remembering it Anne.
Again, please provide a link to a statistic or a poll that would support your comment of ” up to 80%” unless it is made up, or hoped for.
cheers
Well, yes, that's what democracy is.
The idiot-down-the-road's vote is worth just as much as your intelligent, politically-nuanced one.
There is no entry bar (apart from age) and no exit condition (apart from serious incarceration). There is no intelligence test, or political awareness test.
Democracy (even the variant MMP democracy) requires political parties to convince the majority of Kiwis to support their policies (or their leaders, if you subscribe to the great man/woman theory of politics). It does not demand an overwhelming consensus of the population (which would probably be unachievable)
If 51% (or whatever the MMP majority is) favours your coalition – that group of parties gets to form a government (and arm-wrestle over which policies get enacted). That is precisely what a democratically elected government is.
Yes – that15-20% of 'mobile' voters (i.e. they don't have tribal loyalty to any one party) – often the derided 'centrist' voters – are the ones who decide elections. [They are also, BTW, the ones who 'waste' votes on unelectable parties]
Indeed that is the *only* way that a government can change – if everyone was tribal – then government would never change (or at least, only generationally, as new voters graduated into the pool)
I believe that we have a civic duty to vote. But I know that view is not universally shared. People choose not to vote for a variety of reasons (everything from apathy to anarchy). And, non-voters don't affect the result.
That mobile vote swept Ardern's government into an unprecedented under MMP absolute majority government in 2020. I don't recall you complaining about democracy, then.
What alternative form of government would you like to see?
two things here,
a. make voting mandatory
b. add – non of the above
if b were to be the majority of votes, leave the last government as a care takers government for a few more month and then vote again, hopefully that would be enough time for the suited ones to come up with policies that represent the wishes and needs of the people rather then the wishes of the needs of the policy writers.
we will get neither, of course.
While, intellectually, I like the "none of the above" or "no confidence" option on the ballot paper. In reality, elections are hugely expensive operations – and as a taxpayer I don't really want to have any more than are truly necessary.
If people just don't care – and indicate this at the ballot – their vote hasn't changed anything. I don't feel that this is any way to encourage them to care…..
It's about making politicians change their policy to better reflect what voters want.
Here is a little more info on it:
Why would politicians change their policies to appeal to a group of 'don't care' politically disengaged voters?
It's only voters who are going to vote against them that matter electorally.
Under Sabine's scenario, you'd have to have somewhere around 40+% of the electorate voting 'don't care' before the result would cause a new election. I think that it would never happen….
People who care enough to vote – already have plenty of unelectable parties – effectively the spoilt vote scenario. This doesn't inspire them to vote now….
I agree with you. But at some stage we either accept the non voters as the cheap option of 'non of the above' or we find a way to include that into the voting process.
In parliament we have Yes, No, or Abstain, we should have the same right, or at least abolish 'abstain' for any vote in parliament.
People care, but they can't in good conscience vote for any of the above. It is not that their vote has not changed anything, it is that they know/feel that their vote is of no importance.
Maybe that should be addressed before we judge those that no longer want to participate in a system they feel is designed to be simply rubberstamped by voters in order to keep a sheen of legitimacy.
I agree that this is true for some voters… some are simply completely uninterested politically at all.
However, simply having a 'no confidence' vote isn't going to inspire them – since, once again, their vote won't have changed anything.
i have never met anyone who is not interested but i have many who simply state that they don't see a difference between any of them. And that is where the political parties fail.
At some stage the failure to attract voters is a problem created by parties who expect people to vote for soundbites and not on the result of their actions.
And partisanship has also something to do with this, and frankly that is a question that some should ask themselves, how many soft voters are now nowhere to be seen thanks to a lot of vitriol coming their way for not sufficiently supporting L and their excesses.
Voting is not just policies.
Question: ..
If chippys polling drops to Andrew little levels…
Signalling a rout..
Will he walk..?
And who would be his ardern to his little…?
According to twitter, they are to be replaced by the grand Grant Robertson, person beloved my some. thus no J.A effect. That card can't not be played again.
If you want to understand how a social media political marketing campign works:
Guardian Australia deconstructs how the No campaign organises its Facebook ads on The Voice referendum.
And see how cheap it is – under the $100k mark.
I listened to Bernard Hickey interviewing Danyl McLaughlin on the Kaka (25 mins), first on Fukuyama’s theory of vetocracy then current context here, folks becoming disillusioned with democracy due to leftist failure etc.
Around 22 mins in they got onto something else interesting: Danyl mentioned that mental health reform had failed due to govt doing suitable policy but the public service not having a clue what to do with the funding of it. He said the Infrastructure Commission issued a report to that effect – I never saw that reported in the media.
I know everyone always defaults to blind faith in democracy even when it fails but really folks ought to try to learn from those failures… https://thekaka.substack.com/p/matariki-special-interview-danyl#details
Jolly gd chat with JFKjr …head an shoulders over any other pres candidate imo
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzGtwCvdCxxTFCkbFzHhKvRdTlSD?projector=1
Yr link just goes to google sign-in page.
Bugga sorry about that i got in the mail i guess i cant share it like that too bad its a podcast called ' All In ' four panelists + jfk
Do you mean RFK jr.? If so, he's very dangerous, as Samoa found out:
If Mehdi Hassan is going after him that just tells me the ' establishment ' thinks he's "very dangerous " as in a threat to them .
Kennedy's a killer of Samoan children.
He's also a narcissistic ex-junkie who traded smack for an addiction to himself, is proud of his own ignorance, and has all the confidence that goes with a lifetime of privilege, excess, and special treatment.
Of course you think he's …head an shoulders..
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-robert-f-kennedy-jr-distorted-vaccine-science1/
Head an shoulders etc
Yep intelligent courageous and despite a fairly acute voice impediment articulate can speak for hours knowledgably off the cuff isnt afraid to say hes wrong or made a mistake or needs to think about something a bit more has humility and compassion [ unlike some !! ]
This judge needs to be removed from the bench.
Judge says public, police and him are sick of the kid offending (last time while out on bail for previous offending).
Judge then promptly discounts sentence down to 14 months and gives him home detention and name suppression! FFS!
So he will probably be out in the public again breaking the law!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/retail-crime-almost-400-ram-raids-in-six-months-judge-tells-young-offender-the-public-have-had-enough/L7X4UDED5FB5PD74DEK7NJ5BZU/
Yes but if you put them in jail for 5 years that is a million dollars we all have to pay.
Remember the kid has already been on electronically monitored bail for a year, presumably with strict reporting requirements.
If his name becomes known he will be labelled for life-it doesn't exactly help trying to turn him into a useful member of society. Neither does slamming him inside for 5 years.
A million? More like $600,000. Either way, probably a bargain considering the havoc he may cause before his short brutish life comes to an end.
It seems that the current round of offending before the courts occurred while he was on this strictly monitored bail for previous crimes…. so not very effective, was it….
We have no evidence, either way, whether he has been charged with other crimes committed while on bail for this offence.
He committed this ram raid while on the "electronically monitored bail for a year, presumably with strict reporting requirements." that you mention so a fat lot of good that was!
I believe it costs around $193k a year to keep someone in jail, but having him out in the community is costing a lot more than that.
You and Grannie completely missing the point of judges and a justice system there. What would it look like if your court of public opinion set judicial sentences on the basis of a social media story, or a done-once-over-lightly Herald article, as you are doing here? Not much need for judging then. Just rubber-stamp the writ for hanging.
Clearly the judge had reasons for their sentence that you do not know about.
The kid was doing the ram raid while out on bail! Do you really think being on home D he will not commit another crime?
https://twitter.com/HaydenDonnell/status/1679349333416906752
Fran Drescher, Actors Guild negotiator with entertainment bosses, rallies union members in strike action.
Guardian article and Drescher's speech
Drescher says this is a crossroads for many workers, not just actors and screenwriters. She describes the industry as having changed the business model fundamentally with streaming services, while not accepting that the payment structures for creatives need renegotiating. Examples are the lack of residual payments for digital media. AI challenges the future of creatives as well.
I agree disruptor tech needs to be critiqued, challenged, and reigned in because personal profit driven people will always take advantage of artists and workers, but this industrial action is really tough on film crews, many of who are not unionised/syndicated because it’s very expensive in the US. And globally crews have zero worker protection (in NZ see the Hobbit law).
On the surface it seems incongruous for headline wealthy actors to be walking out of London premiers midway because 'they are the victims' but in a way it generates huge publicity for workers rights.
There will be real pain for ordinary film crew workers and their families because of the disruption to productions but the long view is a chance to set some real ground rules for the new era of entertainment consumption, ie streaming, AI content etc.
I went to Indiana Jones: Dial of Destiny the other day and the first 20 mins shows a young Harrison Ford (he's now 81 years old). The first few shots you can tell it's CGI but after that you don't notice. A sign of things to come…
MSNBC interviews Drescher in more detail
Two examples of AI used to steal from performers, in comments under this video:
It’s essential for creatives to get fair payment, as most of the 160,000 AG union members cannot support themselves on their acting work alone, and they have to cover audition and presentation costs.
Gloriavale lawyer interviewed on 3News gave the govt a roasting. He meant the departmental heads involved. Negligence, delinquent behaviour is my framing of his gist. Newshub doesn't have it onsite yet.
He's disgusted the Nat/Lab duopoly have allowed a cult to get away with slavery in Aotearoa. Correctly so, it seems. PM & ministers will look around wildly, going "We're not responsible. Just because it says so in our constitutional law doesn't mean it's true!"
[Link required]
Newshub haven't posted it yet.
Is this the interview?
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/07/lawyer-for-gloriavale-six-takes-aim-at-govt-in-anger.html
It was posted yesterday.
Yeah, that's the one. Funny, I scanned the front page of Newshub last night & again this morning and it wasn't there…
Thing is, his critique of Labour hinges on whether it is reasonable or not. I'm agnostic. I can see how the PM may reasonable respond "Their slavery was a matter of opinion which the court decision may have changed. I'll seek advice from our lawyers, but it may require a Supreme Court determination."
It was published last night shortly after 7 pm. With the short news cycles, news items get pushed down & off rapidly. To find an item you often have to put some effort into it and search, not simply scroll up & down the main page (aka ‘scanning’).
The onus was on you to put the effort into it.
onus
Then why don't you apply the same standard to all the other commentators onsite here who regularly post about the news without links??
I do, when I spot them and have time to respond, e.g., https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-20-06-2023/#comment-1955332 and https://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-12-07-2023/#comment-1959454.
Why are you behaving as a belligerent little child?
debunking conspiracies aotearoa hosts spiderhoof's tiktok of National's debt blowout on the back of election promises in their last government.
View The debt… tiktok.