Why are the Greens so happy?

Written By: weka - Date published: 12:05 pm, October 15th, 2023 - 75 comments
Categories: election 2023, greens, labour, maori party - Tags: green politics, how change happens

Firstly, my commiserations to Labourites. That’s a hard result for Labour. Not so devastating for the left generally, well done to both Te Pāti Māori and the Greens on increasing the left vote.

I’ve been seeing a few comments on twitter from across the political spectrum, people wondering why the Greens are so celebratory. Seems a good time to talk about green political kaupapa and how change happens.

First the obvious stuff.

The numbers

The Greens were nearly out of parliament in 2017 following the brutal backlash to then Green Party co-leader Meteria Turei’s groundbreaking welfare speech at the beginning of the election campaign. Everything is upwards from that point, both the numbers and the lessons learned.

This year the Greens will have the most MPs in parliament they have ever had. It’s currently looking like 14, up from 10, but they may pick up an extra seat on the Specials. That’s a nearly 50% increase.

It’s a renewal. With MPs retiring this year, six of the fourteen MPs will be new. This gives a solid core of eight experienced MPs to bring the new ones in. For those keeping an eye on the medium and long term this is gold.

Notable is that when the Green Party list was selected this year, the new candidates in top fifteen were heavily environmentally focussed, redressing the imbalance towards social justice of recent years. Think social justice more integrated than devalued.

Fourteen Green MPs is historic. The Greens now hold 30% of the Labour/Green bloc MPs. Along with the strong wins by Te Pāti Māori, the left should now be looking at moving past the old FPP/MMP position of major party with support parties, and instead how to form three very strong parties on the left (assuming it is possible for Labour to make that change).

Winning the electorates and the party vote

Also historic for the Greens is the winning of three electorate seats. Chloe Swarbrick retains Auckland Central, Tamatha Paul takes Wellington Central, and Julie Anne Genter takes Rongotai. The Greens have previously only ever won two electorate seats, Jeanette Fitzsimons in Coromandal in 1999 and Swarbrick in Auckland Central in 2020.

I haven’t had a good look at the party vote in electorates yet, but we can see something important happening in Labour stronghold Mt Albert. The very close result with Labour’s Helen White leading over National’s Melissa Lee by only 96 votes, is in part to do with the strong performance by the Greens’ Ricardo Menendez March.

TVNZ’s coverage of this last night was all a bit FPP, with a nod to vote splitting, and John Campbell shouting from the side ‘but look at the Greens!’ Menendez got the Greens 23% of the party vote in Mt Albert.

Likewise the Greens’ court jester candidate in Dunedin, Francisco Hernandez’s team ran a strong campaign, with the Greens getting 26% of the party vote there.

The Greens have long campaigned in electorates they cannot win because it raises their party vote. It speaks to how we could be viewing MMP differently, not as a contest of two sides, but as a confluence of many dynamics.

Being in Opposition

Opposition isn’t simply where parties get consigned when they lose an election, it’s a critical aspect of our democracy. Opposition holds government to account.

The Greens campaigned on more MPs and Ministers in a Labour-led government, but these numbers work in Opposition too. The Greens are good at Opposition and I for one am pleased to see them freed up to go hard on both climate/ecology and wealth/welfare. That’s hard against Nact policy, but it’s also about pulling Labour leftwards and greenwards.

All of which is to say that these results are the Greens coming into their own and building their party for the long haul. It’s a sign of how well their work on both climate/environment and poverty/welfare is paying off as well as the excellent ground game in those electorates.

The less obvious stuff

The stories we tell matter. My initial sense about this election is that people did want change, but it wasn’t only a swing to the right, there has also been a distinct swing to the left with the Green and TPM vote. The story we tell about this right now matters. We need to be honest about the truth about a right wing government, but we also need to look at the good changes happening on the left.

This need for change can be understood in traditional left/right politics, but there is more to it than that: the parties willing to push back against neoliberalism, and prioritise people and environment. That transcends trad left, and the left needs to recognise this and learn how to make it work for the broader progressive position. It’s not hard to see how Māori have their own politics independent of the left, and the Greens do too. This works for particularly younger generations who aren’t wedded to the traditional left/right spectrum.

The other critical aspect here are the visions being presented. Post-neoliberal policies matter, but so do strong voices saying TINA can be retired and here is what we can do instead. Te Pāti Māori and the Greens both did that in distinct ways this election.

Which leads to how change happens. The key here is that the Greens don’t want power for power’s sake. They want change. And that change is based in a set of specific values and principles that don’t waver.

The celebratory nature of the Greens’ response is partly to do with results, but it’s also a basic position in the world where relationship is seen as primary. People want to feel good, and presenting politics in ways that make us feel good is not only good strategy it’s imperative in the coming years of the climate/ecology crises.

Where to now?

The Greens can be criticised for being too conciliatory, and it’s been good to see them stand up with much stronger critique this year. But the default to celebration and joy here is natural, because when it comes down to it, this is what most people want. The Greens have built that social tech into their politics right from the start and we are seeing this now.

In contrast, mainstream politics is brutal and relentlessly negative. For three elections now the Greens have presented the most left wing (and costed) policies of any party in parliament, and yet there are those on the left who still consistently slag them off, in a ‘better dead than green’ kind of way. There’s an obvious challenge for the Greens to grow their base, but there’s a bigger challenge for the left in how to create a politics that most people want that is based in societal, community, and environmental wellbeing.

Of all the things the left could do right now, this is what I consider the most important: change how politics is done. Prioritise relationship over competition, and power sharing over power mongering. No more ‘river of filth’ rhetoric, instead learning how we can work across difference. We cannot force people to become left, we have to engage in relationship.

Labour have made shifts on this, first in 2017 with Little choosing to work proactively with the Greens to change the government, then with Ardern bringing the language and practice of kindness. Māori already have this built in culturally, he tangata, he tangata, he tangata. The broader left struggles to recognise the importance and it’s going to take a change in world view to be able to tell a different story that more of New Zealand wants. Three years in Opposition is the perfect time to work on that.

Front page photo by Michael Craig via Isaac Davidson

75 comments on “Why are the Greens so happy? ”

Comments are now closed

Tricledrown 1

15 October 2023 at 12:18 pm

That means Green MPs can connect with more people having more MPs to be stationed strategically around electorates will help to keep a high profile,plus we may get some hard working new talent.
Robin The Goodfellow 2

15 October 2023 at 12:24 pm

In a funny sort of way I think opposition is the best place for The Greens, kind of like NZFirst and, maybe, Act whereas National or Labour are best suited to being in power.
- Mike the Lefty 2.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 12:48 pm
  
  That is often said, but at least the Greens have proven they can work constructively with any government – left or right – inside or outside – if given the chance.
  
  Seymour Butts has never co-operated with anyone other than National and even then it was only on his terms.
  
  Luxon will have a hard job controlling the mountain goats amongst his flock of sheep.
  - Robin The Goodfellow 2.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 1:41 pm
    
    I still believe that if the Greens truly wanted change then they'd say they can work with National (on Green terms of course) because until they do they'll always be taken advantage of by Labour
    - Ad 2.1.1.1
      
      15 October 2023 at 1:54 pm
      
      Until there is a change in that part of their constitution that requires coalition deals to be ratified by the Members, that ain't ever going to happen.
      - Robin The Goodfellow 2.1.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 2:11 pm
        
        Kind of my point, it's easy to talk about change but it's a bit harder having to do the compromise
        
        Much easier to be in opposition and hold the moral high ground
        
        observer 2.1.1.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 2:33 pm
        
        Easy way to find out. Luxon could say today "I'd rather talk to the Greens than Winston".
        
        Nothing is stopping him … except the National Party.
        
        Robin The Goodfellow …
        
        15 October 2023 at 2:40 pm
        
        In the immortal words of Cold Chisel
        
        You've got nothing I want, you've got nothing I need
        
        It's up to the Greens to make overtures, not National
        
        Again why the Greens are suited to opposition
        
        observer …
        
        15 October 2023 at 2:47 pm
        
        Perhaps you've forgotten 2017 already?
        
        The overtures were loud …
        
        No, honestly, National really did seem to be serious about a coalition with the Greens | Stuff.co.nz
        
        Nothing stopping Luxon doing what National did then.
    - observer 2.1.1.2
      
      15 October 2023 at 2:30 pm
      
      Does this myth ever die?
      
      National, every 3 years: "You're just a bunch of woke commies, you don't really care about the environment … "
      
      Also National: "Why won't you work with us? Just because we insult you and don't even attempt to understand you, that doesn't mean we can't be friends!".
    - Psycho Milt 2.1.1.3
      
      15 October 2023 at 4:00 pm
      
      What do you picture them working with National on, exactly? There are no common policies, intentions or interests.
Ad 3

15 October 2023 at 12:32 pm

Greens are close-to as strong in Parliament as the Alliance of old. In some areas their spokespeople are stronger than Labour's.

I see Greens and TPM cooperating very strongly in Select Committees and in legislation, to be the primary energy of Opposition.

Labour needs to respect this as it rebuilds over 3 years.

Congratulations to the Greens on their best result ever. With a momentum for further growth that gives hope to reformers everywhere.

It's the second most successful Green Party on earth so they are also in a position to reach out to the German, Icelandic and other Green parties to strengthen as an international movement.
Ad 4

15 October 2023 at 12:35 pm

They've also proven from their success in government that gaining power is no threat to principle, and thyey can exercise power, gain policy, and increase their vote as a minor party. That is very rare.
- Rolling-on-Gravel 4.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 10:16 pm
  
  That's definitely something worthy of celebration!
Mike the Lefty 5

15 October 2023 at 12:37 pm

The Greens ran a good campaign in my view. Concentrated on the electorates where they had a chance and didn't waste their resources on the no hopers. They stood smart sassy candidates in the places where voters like such people (Wellington).

Their insistence on sticking to policies of the left, including sticking up for the environment and giving the middle finger to any compromise with the corporation T-shirt National poverty machine made them stand out from Labour who were too busy trying to please the centrist business-as-usual brigade. How many times do you have to hear the saying "If you try to please everybody you end up pleasing nobody" before you believe it?

I was particularly impressed with the (very probable) win in Rongotai because I used to live there many years ago.

They are not in government but they will prove a worthy opposition. Watch them go straight for ACT's goolies in the new parliament.
- Bearded Git 5.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 12:42 pm
  
  Given that NACT are almost certainly going to be in thrall to Winston in the upcoming government, we may even see Luxon approaching the Greens for support to get some green/semi-green legislation through. It would be a clever move-don’t hold your breath though.
  - Mike the Lefty 5.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 12:51 pm
    
    As I said in a comment above, the Greens have worked constructively with National before as regards home insulation and they would probably do so again if it was concerning a policy that was dear to them.
    
    That is, of course, if Seymour Butts gives his consent, and he probably wouldn't because he loathes the Greens.
    - Roy Cartland 5.1.1.1
      
      15 October 2023 at 1:10 pm
      
      They did some good work with the Nats as well around marriage equality, didn't they? Butts might go for stuff like that, NZF wouldn't.
    - Bearded Git 5.1.1.2
      
      15 October 2023 at 3:15 pm
      
      Seymour's consent would not be needed because National and the Greens have 64 seats which is a majority.
      - Cindy 5.1.1.2.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 8:41 pm
        
        Yeah but if it causes Act to throw a hissy fit and dissolve its deal…
        
        Belladonna 5.1.1.2.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 8:47 pm
        
        Why would National working with the GP over something that ACT actually supports (like marriage equality) – cause Seymour to have a hissy fit?
        
        I think you underestimate his ability to work with all parties (as he showed during the euthanasia debate/referendum).
Robin The Goodfellow 6

15 October 2023 at 1:43 pm

To be fair to the Greens they have done very well in appealing to the upper middle class and taking votes off National
- weka 6.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 1:51 pm
  
  do you have any evidence for those two ideas?
  - Robin The Goodfellow 6.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 2:09 pm
    
    The electorates they won aren't exactly working class are they
    - weka 6.1.1.1
      
      15 October 2023 at 2:31 pm
      
      ok fair point, didn't realise you were talking about the three electorates. Would be interesting to see the class spread across the party vote.
      
      Any evidence that they're getting Nat votes?
      - Robin The Goodfellow 6.1.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 3:33 pm
        
        Absolutely none except the idea that higher earning areas tend to vote right rather than left so if they're voting Green then they're not voting National/Act
  - Belladonna 6.1.2
    
    15 October 2023 at 2:10 pm
    
    The GP always do much, much better in the leafy suburbs – Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central are not poor areas. Their vote in the really poor areas has always been dismal (look at Mana or Mangere for example)
    
    It's always been a conundrum – why the GP, with social policies which should be attractive to poorer areas, tend to do badly there; while they do much better in wealthy areas.
    
    But no idea why anyone would think that the GP are taking votes from National.
    - weka 6.1.2.1
      
      15 October 2023 at 2:42 pm
      
      Around 65% of Auckland Central households have an income of less then $100,000.
      
      54% of AC people rent, compared to 29% of NZ generally.
      
      The assertion isn't that AC is working class, it's that it's upper middle class, with the implication this is the vote that the Greens got.
      
      My guess is that Swarbrick lands well with a range of people, including students, renters, progressives, and environmentally conscious people. And yes, her middle class background will make her more appealing to some of the wealthier people there than say Marama Davidson would.
      
      Mostly, I wish we had the research to tell us
      
      https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/historical-electorate-profiles/electorate-profiles-data/document/DBHOH_Lib_EP_Auckland_Central_Households/auckland-central-households#_85
      - Belladonna 6.1.2.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 3:07 pm
        
        Then how do you explain the very high National result in the same electorate?
        
        Auckland Central includes the hugely wealthy suburbs of Herne Bay, St Marys Bay, Ponsonby, Freemans Bay, etc. – all with an entry level of 2 million plus; as well as the luxury apartment complexes on the waterfront.
        
        There is no denying that these areas are upper middle class (at the very least – you could make a strong argument for upper class – though that's a bit antithetical to the Kiwi way of life)
        
        The balance is made up of high-density, low quality apartment blocks – heavily occupied by students and immigrants (mostly the latter regard this as a staging post on their journey to a stand-alone house).
        
        National took the electorate on the party vote (clear majority) – and pushed Swarbrick hard on the electorate vote. It's pretty clear that only tactical voting from Labour voters pushed her over the line [NB: I don't have an issue with tactical voting]
        
        Most of the students living in the electorate don't vote there (registered in their home electorate, if they're registered at all) – and apart from politics students – mostly don't vote.
        
        Many of the flat owners/occupiers are immigrants – who (wild generalization coming) don't vote Green; and/or are highly traumatized by the huge increase in visible crime (assaults are routine, murder not infrequent, many people simply don't feel safe walking along the streets after dark). Crime has been a *huge* issue for voters in Auckland.
        
        I'd pick that Swarbrick did well in Herne Bay and other hugely wealthy inner suburbs as well as the Islands, and possibly the hip apartments ; and that Mahesh Muralidhar did well in the immigrant and flat-dweller communities – as well as those wealthy people without a green conscience.
        
        Prior to Swarbrick, this was a solid National electorate (Ardern made no dent in it, despite trying twice). There is nothing Labour about it – and hasn't been for at least a generation – since the gentrification of Ponsonby in the 80s.
        
        Dennis Frank 6.1.2.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 3:29 pm
        
        I mostly lived in central during my university years but your analysis rings true to me. The old phrase upwardly mobile comes to mind, gentrification, property developers both hobbyist & professional all over…
        
        Belladonna …
        
        15 October 2023 at 4:22 pm
        
        Yeah, I think that a lot of people remember Auckland Central from their uni days – and don't realize just how much it has changed. There are no longer many (if any) shared flats in the way there used to be in the 70s and 80s – it's high rises and mansions.
        
        In Vino …
        
        15 October 2023 at 7:09 pm
        
        I would suggest that Chloe's personal appeal also counts. I was watching it all with no sound, and at the end when Chloe spoke she had huge presence, commanding eyes, more so than any other of the boring old farts and younger bumblers whom I saw that night..
        
        Today I saw some of it with sound on, and what she was saying was not exactly the Nuremberg Address, but she was captivating, in that she held attention. I suspect she gets extra votes from intelligent listeners (because I find her writings more full of significant content than many others'), and I suspect that with young people/students and educated older middle-class (liberal) grey-haired people, she can draw more attention and support than any other current MP could do.
        
        Belladonna …
        
        15 October 2023 at 8:19 pm
        
        Agree that she's certainly charismatic – much more so than any of the other GP MPs (or, to be fair, any other party's MPs either). The only other person in NZ politics with that level of political charm is (much though I hate to say it) Winston Peters.
        
        Rolling-on-Gravel …
        
        15 October 2023 at 10:21 pm
        
        That actually does accord with my experience as a Deaf person. Chloe is exactly what you describe and yes, she's commanding.
        
        I've met her in person twice and both times, she came off as genuine.
        
        No wonder that she kept her position then.
        
        JeremyB 6.1.2.1.1.2
        
        16 October 2023 at 2:48 pm
        
        Anecdotal, but my flatmate who was door-knocking for the Greens in Freemans Bay/Ponsonby/Grey Lynn was quite surprised at the very large number of people who indicated they would vote Chloe for electorate & National for Party.
DS 7

15 October 2023 at 1:44 pm

Once a Labour electorate goes Green, it's damned hard for Labour to get it back – Wellington Central is probably gone for good, so far as Labour is concerned, though they might have a shot at Rongotai in future.

This also creates an interesting issue for Labour longer-term. The days of running Labour leaders out of Auckland might be over (the city is now too right-wing, even though Mount Albert will narrowly hold). That means you might see a succession of Labour leaders from Outer Wellington, Christchurch, or even Dunedin or Palmerston North.
- Belladonna 7.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 2:18 pm
  
  There hasn't been an example of the Greens taking an electorate off Labour. Auckland Central was National, before Swarbrick took it in 2020; as was Coromandel before and after Jeanette Fitzsimons took it in 1999.
  
  Labour leadership abandoning Auckland is a very high-risk strategy. Part of the beef that Aucklanders had with the government over the Covid lockdowns, was just how out-of-touch the leadership were with Auckland (where all the lockdown pain was going on). If all, or a substantial part of the Labour leadership team are SI (or even worse, Wellington) based – then Aucklanders are less likely to vote for them. One third of the population is too big a chunk to safely ignore.
  
  Having said this, there is still a Labour stronghold in South Auckland – where Jenny Salesa and Arena Williams have been returned with substantial majorities – as has Carmel Sepuloni in Kelston.
mary_a 8

15 October 2023 at 2:35 pm

After the devastating Climate Change effects has had on NZ (and the rest of the world), with the liklihood of more to come in the future, it seems NZers are now taking the NZ Greens Party seriously Last night's results are evidence of this fact and I can see the party strengthening, eventually becoming more mainstream in the not too distant future, as its CC, economic and social policies will become more acceptable for the benefit of NZ in general.

Congratulations NZ Green Party.
observer 9

15 October 2023 at 2:38 pm

The Greens (and whisper it quietly, ACT) taking electorates off Labour and National is good for democracy, accountability. There were no cups of tea, and yet "safe" seats were lost by the major parties.

Not taking voters for granted is always good for the voters, regardless.
- weka 9.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 2:45 pm
  
  Turei and Godfery made good points on TVNZ last night that a big part of the swing to TPM in the Māori seats is the commitment to kaupapa Māori, but also the renewal and bringing new people through.
  
  I agree it's good for democracy and accountability. It's a problem for Labour to lose those seats, but that's happened before.
  - Belladonna 9.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 3:13 pm
    
    It's a problem for Labour to lose those seats, but that's happened before.
    
    It has indeed – and the challenge for TPM will be to keep those seats for more than one election. They've made a good start with retaining Waiariki – but have to show the electorate that they can achieve results that are 'better' than those achieved by Labour.
    
    I think that this is likely to be aided by some retirements (I suspect that Mahuta and Tirikatene will retire, rather than staging a comeback in 2026).
    
    But Labour will not want to lose these seats long-term.
Psycho Milt 10

15 October 2023 at 3:05 pm

I have as curated a social media feed as anyone else, but mine at least has been full of people wanting a change of personnel to get rid of the people who did things they didn't like over the last three years, seemingly in the expectation that there's not much difference between a Nat-led govt and a Labour-led one.

Problem is, there's a big difference. The changes they voted for include:

1. Tax cuts for the rich, funded by benefit cuts and cuts to public services that may not be important to the people wanting the change but are important to people who are heavily dependent on them.

2. The re-inflation of the property bubble, which was the leading cause of housing unaffordability, the "cost of living crisis" and people in low-paid work having to do two jobs to make ends meet.

3. The rental market skewed firmly back in favour of landlords.

4. Every single environmental the Greens managed to squeeze out of Labour being under threat and likely to be rolled back.

Those aren't minor differences. The only good thing out of it is your point re Greens as an effective Opposition. They're way more effective than Labour and they've just increased their numbers, and that increase brings in more environmentalists than batshit crazy social justice warriors.
- weka 10.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 3:13 pm
  
  do you think your SM feed is influenced by GC pol? Because there's a very obvious split in mine in that most GC people I know flatly refuse to vote left because of the one thing they don't like from the past term. I would guess that Auckland has some issues from the lockdown that they were disproportionately affected by.
  - Psycho Milt 10.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 4:08 pm
    
    I follow a lot of GC feminists but was also seeing a strong rejection of Labour due to Covid response issues (which often seem to involve the assumptions that 'status quo' was an available option, or that people have a civil right to refuse vaccination for a current lethal pandemic AND continue working with the elderly, immuno-suppressed etc).
- weka 10.2
  
  15 October 2023 at 3:14 pm
  
  there's another thing we should be looking at. Are we better off in the med and long term for climate/ecology in having a strong left Opposition than a L/NZF government for another term?
  - Dennis Frank 10.2.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 3:39 pm
    
    strong left Opposition
    
    Such an unlikely proposition could only ever emerge if the govt does the wrong things: the common enemy syndrome kicks in proportionally. Lux may be using an advisor capable of figuring this out.
    
    Ideological governance is a sure-fire way of alienating the populace therefore Seymour will have to be kept in his kennel. Yet it's possible that Winston could allow a treaty referendum if framed suitably to make a rightist ideological position seem sensible. Don't laugh, stranger things have happened!
    
    So Lux is likeliest to do his version of muddle thro the middle in classic neolib fashion and thereby not spook mainstreamer nags…
  - Psycho Milt 10.2.2
    
    15 October 2023 at 4:13 pm
    
    Interesting question! Partnering with NZF only ends up as a circus with way too many clowns, so it could be worse in the long term for Labour to eke out a third term making a fool of itself than to go into Opposition. The 2005-8 Clark govt provides an example. But those issues I mentioned above are important – the damage done by the property bubble alone was huge, and NACT will set about re-inflating it ASAP.
- infused 10.3
  
  15 October 2023 at 6:50 pm
  
  Well.
  1. There's nothing wrong with tax cuts. I don't understand the outrage. There are so many junk projects of Labours that can be scrapped to fund this.
  2. The property bubble is already rising. Wellington has had a 7% jump in the last month before the election.
  3. The rental market is very much in the hands of the renter at the moment and this isn't about to change much except deductibility, which never should have come off in the first place. The countries that have implemented this are in the single digits.
  4. Protecting the environment is all good, but when you can't feed your family, I don't think this is going to be high on the agenda for most.
  And parting comments because I'm not going to comment any further, what sunk Labour was co-governance, crime and inflation. The first two labour could have done alot more about. Specifically, crime. People have had enough.
  
  Hopefully Winston doesn't make the cut.
  - Dennis Frank 10.3.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 7:24 pm
    
    co-governance, crime and inflation
    
    Three strikes & you're out, eh? Probably an effective triad in the minds of most voters. I'd rather let Labour off the hook on crime, since I buy their feeble excuse (cops engage criminals, not us politicians). You could point out neoliberalism breeds crime, therefore Labour are morally guilty just as much as National are.
    
    If you did, fair enough – but we both know Labour will never, ever, admit that truth so in the land of realpolitik it don't count for much. Re co-governance, they'd plead that apparent laziness on their part was actually an insouciant devil-may-care kind of whistling while they work sort of act. As for inflation, blaming the govt for the tide coming in & going out could be more plausible. Everyone knows the market does it.
    - Psycho Milt 10.3.1.1
      
      15 October 2023 at 8:14 pm
      
      I don't buy Infused's claim about co-governance. All the people I've seen ranting about it were never potential left voters in the first place.
      - Belladonna 10.3.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 8:27 pm
        
        Nothing to do with ranting. But centrist voters were very concerned over an unelected minority group in control of significant infrastructure (like water).
        
        And Mahuta's shenanigans around the entrenchment provision just put the icing on the cake.
        
        They didn't have to rant and rave, they just quietly went and voted elsewhere.
        
        Were they Left voters? Well, they voted for Ardern in 2020 – so Labour had a strong shot at converting them.
        
        And, the more you call them 'racist', the less likely you are to persuade them to your point of view.
        
        Labour/Ardern/the Maori caucus – simply did not bring NZ along with them on this one. And, by the time Hipkins walked it back, the credibility was burned – and people simply didn't believe that it was 'really' off the agenda.
        
        Psycho Milt 10.3.1.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 8:37 pm
        
        "Voted for Ardern in 2020" means little. By definition, Labour's percentage of the vote in 2020 meant a lot of people voted for them for the first time in that election and were never likely to again.
        
        Belladonna …
        
        15 October 2023 at 8:42 pm
        
        I agree that a proportion of that vote was unlikely to ever stick with Labour – but they had a sporting chance to convert another chunk of that windfall vote. And failed, spectacularly.
  - Psycho Milt 10.3.2
    
    15 October 2023 at 8:05 pm
    
    Tax cuts have no inherent moral value in themselves, sure. Particular tax cut proposals very much do, though. It depends on whether you think depriving the poor to provide the already-wealthy with even more than they had previously is a moral negative, I guess.
    
    Current govt was actively trying to at least reduce the expansion of the bubble with some effect, even if it didn't have the bollocks to actually reverse the growth. New govt has policies to actively increase the expansion.
    
    Landlords always say the market is in the hands of the renter, no matter how much they're shafting their tenants.
    
    If feeding your family depends on making human civilisation increasingly difficult, it's time for a good look at current business models and the blatant unsustainability thereof. A NACT govt certainly won't be doing that.
    
    As for crime, see item 1. The property bubble and the people who facilitated it (yes, including Labour ministers) have a hell of a lot to answer for when it comes to rising crime. Way more than Chris Hipkins does. In any case, what we're talking about here is more the success of a propaganda narrative than the failure of a government.
That_guy 11

15 October 2023 at 4:40 pm

Yes, a good result for the greens. I am thinking of re-joining and participating a bit more.

I just hope it’s taken by the GP as a sign; ditch or de-emphasise identity politics, that’s the way to win. Green voters want to hear the GP talking about tax, the rights of working people, renters rights, and the environment.
- Grey Area 11.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 5:58 pm
  
  Not quite. As a former Green Party member, local office holder, volunteer, and voter, I want to hear them talking about the climate crisis, the environment, tax, the rights of working people, and renters rights.
  
  Yes they have dialed back the focus on gender issues and identity politics but I am waiting to see if this is permanent and there are not players in the wings waiting to step in and drop the ball again.
  - That_guy 11.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 6:18 pm
    
    Yeah, with you on that. I was also heavily involved (candidate last time) and I’m also interested to see if the focus remains on the right issues. I might re-join and try to make sure. Because yes, there definitely are players in the wings waiting to step in and fuck it up, but we don’t actually have to just sit here and watch it happen.
Grey Area 12

15 October 2023 at 4:52 pm

GC? I find insider shorthand really unhelpful. It makes me feel dumb. NACT I get, GP I get, NZF I get, TPM I get.

I follow road cycle racing. GC to me means General Classification (the winner overall of a stage race).
- That_guy 12.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 5:15 pm
  
  GC=gender critical.
  - Grey Area 12.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 5:47 pm
    
    Aah. Thank you. To me using shorthand terms like GC is potentially lazy and/or alienating. It assumes people in that discussion orbit understand the term.
    
    When I searched it Google returned about 1.5 million references and most of the early ones were golf clubs with no hint of being gender critical.
    - weka 12.1.1.1
      
      15 October 2023 at 6:04 pm
      
      it was a sub conversation between me and Milt. Not so much lazy as rude.
      - Psycho Milt 12.1.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 8:10 pm
        
        Lol yes, not lazy, just rude. Sorry, the reference to GC was to women who won't vote Labour or Green due to those parties actively undermining women's rights. I'm hoping the Greens will do less of this after these personnel changes.
KJT 13

15 October 2023 at 5:45 pm

Noting that Green polling went up after Metiria.

Dropped, after! Greens walked back on it.
- Dennis Frank 13.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 5:59 pm
  
  I recall being intrigued by that reversal of public opinion. I agreed with her underdog truth-telling – evidence of authenticity. I knew rabid mainstreamers would howl about it, and they did. Never forget that hypocrisy is shared by both left & right in this country! She offended them both simultaneously, only got solidarity from those empathic towards beneficiaries – an eternal small minority. Her political problem was blind-siding her caucus colleagues when she did it. Political suicide.
  - Rolling-on-Gravel 13.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 10:31 pm
    
    Dennis, this is correct. I was sad when they got rid of Metiria Turei.
    
    It was the first and one of the only times in my lifetime that somebody actually spoke to me politically.
    
    I won't forget that feeling, ever.
- weka 13.2
  
  15 October 2023 at 6:05 pm
  
  I've never been clear on that. There's a lag between events and how they turn up in polls. Not sure that there was enough time between her speech and that poll.
- Rolling-on-Gravel 13.3
  
  15 October 2023 at 10:28 pm
  
  I have never ever forgotten that, KJT.
  
  That compelled me to vote for Greens for the second time and I don't regret it.
  
  I just voted Greens again in this election and I don't regret this one either.
  
  I'm very happy to back Greens.
Belladonna 14

15 October 2023 at 7:25 pm

Nothing wrong with the Greens celebrating – they are their own party – not the radical wing of Labour.

However, this result just takes them back to where they were in 2014 – before Jacindamania sucked the oxygen out of the left to fuel Labour in 2017 & 2020.

I expect that the pre-election polls led them to hope for a larger percentage – and there will be some disappointment over this.

Their result is a significant improvement over 2020 (as it is for every party except Labour). But the total vote for the left as a whole (including TPM and the GP as well as Labour) is down over the 2017 result.
- Incognito 14.1
  
  15 October 2023 at 7:48 pm
  
  But the total vote for the left as a whole (including TPM and the GP as well as Labour) is down over the 2017 result.
  
  Really? Have you included all the Special Votes before you made your assertion? As far as I know, it stands at 54 (2017) versus 52 (2023).
  - Belladonna 14.1.1
    
    15 October 2023 at 8:09 pm
    
    The figures you've provided show the same thing – a drop from 2017 to 2023.
    
    Of course I haven't included the specials – they haven't been counted yet.
    
    2017 %: Labour 36.9, GP 6.3, TPM 1.2 Total: 44.4
    
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election
    
    2023 (provisional) % : Labour 26.9, GP 10.77, TPM 2.61 Total 40.28
    
    https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/index.html
    - Incognito 14.1.1.1
      
      15 October 2023 at 8:58 pm
      
      Finally, some data to support your reckons and instead of you jumping the gun, which is a step in the right direction.
      - Belladonna 14.1.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 9:16 pm
        
        Thanks for the commendation.
        I did actually look at the data before I made the initial comment. And didn't think it necessary to provide that level of detail, in what was a general comment.
        
        Look forward to you applying the same level of scrutiny to other commenters and their reckons.
        
        Incognito 14.1.1.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2023 at 9:45 pm
        
        You’re welcome.
        
        Indeed, you’re not the only one but you do have particular form with spouting half-baked assertions that create a vibe or feel but do little to inform and then being petulant when pulled up on it.
        
        It is my prerogative as a commenter to reply to other comments as I wish.
        
        It seems to me that you cannot stand the heat of robust debate here …
SPC 15

15 October 2023 at 9:48 pm

Short version, they want to be a 10% plus party election to election (1999 start) and reached this goal – 2011 and 2014, then a disappointing fall back 2017-2020.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_Aotearoa_New_Zealand

After specials, they should be higher than the 11.06% (2011) best result.

Given low turnout among youth they will poll better than election results.
gsays 16

16 October 2023 at 6:35 am

Good post, weka.

You touched on a couple of important things.

TPM in particular and the Greens are building generational movements. The purple block are only really looking at the next administration, being wedded to incessant polling and balance sheets, because of their adherence to neo liberalism. I couldn't agree more that TINA and it's handmaidens – 'trickledown', 'capital flight' and 'markets' can be retired and replaced with something new.

Labour and their more fervent supporters in this cycle had adopted a National attitude. The National party was started to stand against the Labour party. This election period, the vibe was don't let National in. From Labour's election ads, posts here on TS and the feel from the comments here as well. Hipkins speech at the end of the night needed to be heard during the campaign.

Hopefully during the time in opposition, Labour rediscover their principles and stick to them. (You can't claim to be in it for the worker and renter while at the same time running record migration).