I am watching this and basically agree with the general thrust of what I am seeing – albeit with some quibbles. For instance at the 41 min mark he shows a key table that sums up total estimated metals requirement and then divides by 2019 production and arrives at some very long timeframes indeed.
Yet the production figures for just two of those metals – lithium and vanadium are already out of date. I was deeply involved last year in a project that increased battery grade lithium production from the 95,170 tonnes figure he quotes by another 48,000 tonnes. And next year I will be involved in doubling it again and the same again for the next four or five years to a total of almost 250,000 tonnes. And this is just one project globally. Nonetheless I agree I with his conclusion, there is not enough known lithium reserves globally to ever be the dominant battery chemistry.
As for vanadium – just last week I was speaking with the PM for a brand new Australian site that will increase production of this metal referenced 96,000 tonnes by another 20,000 tonnes. And this is a relatively modest site.
So I have first hand knowledge that at least some of his numbers are squishy. Yet that does not take away from the broad conclusion he reaches and one that I have been making for a while; that the proponents of SWB renewables are guilty of glossing over some of the innate constraints they face.
We have discussed alternatives to copper elsewhere – although again oddly enough this next year I will be spending about a third of my time consulting to a massive new copper concentrator.
My point is that the kind of projection Michaux is making here is not easy to get correct in the detail – but he can still be correct in the big picture.
As he qualifies, the numbers are broad based and conservative, and 2019 production figures are used for good reason.
In the grand scheme of things when you conservatively estimate over 7000 years of annual copper production (nevermind the reserves) required in the next 20 talk of solving these issues with recycling is a nonsense.
As he states near the end, as its impossible it will not occur.
OK so I have gotten through the entire thing – but only the lightest possible mention of nuclear. While he praises it's high performance he then airily dismisses it as 'taking too long' and recycles the old waste storage myth. And there is a brief mention in the Q&A of Gen 4 and thorium, but still no data.
On the whole however I fully agree with the broad thrust of his argument; that we have grossly underestimated the challenge of replacing just our current fossil fuel energy consumption, much less the future requirement necessary to support human development this century. Depending on the assumptions made, we will need somewhere between 3 to 8 times our current energy. Which is of course impossible with any projection of current technologies – except Gen 4 nuclear.
In my mind I keep returning to the Kaya Identity as a guide to this puzzle. It essentially tells us there are four levers we have to the carbon problem:
Population
Prosperity per Person
Energy Efficiency per unit of Prosperity
Carbon Intensity per unit of Energy
Of these four levers only one of them can be physically driven to zero – and that is the last term – Carbon Intensity. And there are only two technologies that can deliver on zero carbon:
Essentially Michaux clearly demonstrates that due to the diffuse and intermittent nature of solar and wind renewables the amount of material necessary to build them is impossibly large given current technologies. (On the basis of far less data and rigor I have been making the same argument here for ages.)
Nuclear by contrast is a highly dense and reliable energy source which is the primary reason it can deliver the energy needed within a sane resources budget. But to get there we have to throw away many of the out of date assumptions we have about it:
If we build factory build nuclear plants using the same methods we use for large ships, the time and costs will be better than for existing coal or gas.
If we build nuclear plants using anything but conventional PWR technology – they will be innately lower cost, far easier to operate, produce far less waste and make it reasonably possible to scale nuclear energy's already superb safety record to the numbers of reactors required. All this I have covered in detail elsewhere.
And the old chestnut of waste storage is an entirely solved problem.
The outstanding challenge is regulatory; all of which is based on a fraudulent LNT model of radiation harm that adds utterly unjustified costs, delays and uncertainty to any nuclear project. Which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that Michaux repeats, that nuclear is too expensive and slow.
And to repeat myself – I do not advocate that AU or NZ need to be pioneers in this; we have the enormous luxury of having an excellent solar and wind resource we can use to bridge for several decades or more until mass scale, low cost nuclear becomes mature. In the meantime – can we please quit with the nihilistic 'the end of the world is nigh' sackcloth rendering – that only serves to alarm and discourage people from believing in their children's future. Enough already.
Again – both are myths based on out of date projections. It is exactly like examining WW2 radio technology and insisting from this study that cell phones are impossible.
(Just for laughs – yes I have seen and operated a ZC1 many years ago – quite a remarkable beast for the era it was built in, but generations out of date now. PWR nuclear reactors were also first devised in the 1940’s.)
Michaux displays no antipathy to nuclear energy any more than he does to e.g. copper…. he has simply looked at whats required and determined that its not viable, even less so than renewables, which as you have agreed he has demonstrated.
As he stated all of these figures dont include the energy/materials for the likes of earth works or concrete….that is all additional.
he has simply looked at whats required and determined that its not viable, even less so than renewables,
Again based on demonstrably out of date assumptions that inevitably lead him to the wrong conclusion. As I said above – if all you knew was WW2 radio technology you would incorrectly project that cellphones were impossible. You know this would be a stupid rookie mistake, yet somehow well informed, intelligent people are happy to repeat it when it comes to confirming their biases around nuclear. An odd blind spot.
Note the bolded emphasis I made in my comment above – density and reliability are the fundamental engineering drivers that distinguish SWB renewables from nuclear. Get your head around this and everything else follows.
The problems are numerous and he is probably across the latest developments more so than you are….if you wish to critique his argument then listen to what he has to say on the issue.
He covers nuclear in more depth in his discussion with Nate Hagens (along with other articles)
I watched your first clip and responded in depth. That is way more respect for the argument than you routinely give me.
If you want me to invest another hours worth of my attention you will need to explain why. And perhaps put some effort into responding to my carefully constructed argument above.
I have invested several thousand hours this past five years or so educating myself on nuclear energy and the issues. If I watch this video I predict that Michaux will make the following claims:
That there is not enough uranium to last more than a 100 years or so
That the thorium cycle although more abundant is more complex and less efficient and does not solve the problem.
That Gen 4 reactors are no different and merely make the problem bigger.
That the resulting waste pile is enormous and cannot be dealt with because the future is too uncertain.
It covers some of the points…but misses the main constraint…there is simply not enough time to build the required plant even if all impediments are removed.
I have attached a link to his research which covers all the scenarios he investigated and add his recommendations here
The following recommendations are made:
• Nuclear power is used to service heavy industry operations and heating requirements directly.
• Expansion of the fleet should be planned to a little bit larger in scope than reference scenario to make resources last.
• It is also recommended to develop a robust back end SNF handling system. The proposed storage of SNF and MOX fuel manufacture in the Generation III+ simulation is ambitious. It is recomended that a more practical version of this plan is developed.
• It is recomended to resource the development of Generation IV and thorium nuclear power technology.
You may note from the original podcast that he models expanding existing nuclear generation alongside the renewable implementation.
OK so for the sake of argument let us remove the technical and regulatory constraints. And yes absolutely if we build reactors in the conventional fashion as massive onsite projects you and Michaux would be right – it would indeed take too long.
(Although I must add that having squandered 60 years of not doing nuclear properly, I have little sympathy for those who complain we have now run out of time. But I'll set that one aside too.)
But that is not how to do Gen 4 reactors. We already have all of the engineering capacity to deliver new reactors far faster than we could even with solar and wind. Here is how:
The masters of building big on an assembly line are the shipyards. World class commercial shipyards, exposed to a brutally competitive market, have developed truly remarkable productivity. I spent three years in Korea watching this magic. Flat plate comes in at one end of the property and an immense, complex ship goes out the other end. A good yard needs only 400,000 man-hours to build a ship weighing 30,000 tons, a little more than 10 man-hours per ton. This includes everything: coating, piping, wiring, machinery, and testing. The contract is fixed price, which will be about $3000 per ton. The ship will be built in less than a year. The ship must perform per contract and there are substantial penalties for late delivery.
The shipyards achieve their remarkable productivity by a combination of automation and block construction. Sub-assemblies are produced on a automated panel line, combined into assemblies, and then into fully coated blocks with HVAC, piping, wiring (and scaffolding if required) pre-installed. In the last step, super blocks, weighing as much as 3000 tons, are dropped into place in a building dock.
The steel weight of a 500 MW ThorCon is about 50,000 tons. The world’s largest shipyard can build more than 2,000,000 steel tons of ships per year. A single shipyard can produce 20 GW’s of ThorConIsle power per year. In terms of resource requirements, one gigawatt of ThorCon power is not a big deal. The scale up rate will not be limited by shipyard capacity, but by the rate at which the turbogenerators can be built.
Now I can understand Michaux not including this rapid build pathway because the data would be speculative. But to use this self-imposed limitation of his own study to claim that it cannot be done is not reasonable either.
@ Roblogic…it may be , especially if they can develop fusion. However that will require a functioning society if it is to occur and if the problems are not resolved PDQ there wont be such an environment.
I should add that I do not want to come across as overly critical of Michaux. My first comment still stands – there is a lot of solid work in what I have read so far. I am scanning that pdf now and agree with much of what he is saying.
In particular he underlines just how challenging it is to replace our current fossil energy systems – and explains why in an accessible manner.
But in tackling such an ambitious scope it is inevitable that he will also skate past important details and innovation in specialist areas like nuclear.
How long have you been advocating this plan Red?…3 or 4 years? Where are they?
He is right not to include speculative ideas…that is no basis for analysis….after all aliens may arrive tomorrow and present us with an instant energy solution but i wouldnt waste too much time or energy on planning for it
How long have you been advocating this plan Red?…3 or 4 years? Where are they?
Not quite that long. But now you have re-introduced other constraints to the timeline.
My inside info is that if Thorcon could ignore all regulatory requirements and supply chain issues – they could have the first one up and going within 6 – 8 months. As it is they are making steady progress, appointing a Certification Authority being an important and relatively mature milestone.
Comparing this to aliens arriving is frankly idiotic.
"Not quite that long. But now you have re-introduced other constraints to the timeline."
I have introduced nothing….these are unproven and there is no evidence they will perform as promoted….if these are to be any part of a solution they are rapidly running out of time to make an appearance.
there is simply not enough time to build the required plant even if all impediments are removed.
Well I demonstrated that this is not true – shipyard building can achieve the speed and scale needed – if all the impediments were removed. So then you effectively re-introduced the constraints that a real world developer like Thorcon have to work with by demanding to know why they have not delivered by now. Well if you cared to ask them as I have, it is meeting onerous, time consuming, sometimes capricious regulatory requirements and supply chain issues around accessing startup fuel that are the primary constraints they face.
(One of the most frustrating and perverse constraints is that the US DOE has a small stockpile of U-233 that would be an ideal startup fuel for thorium cycle based reactors – yet for reasons no-one can sanely explain hundreds of millions are being wasted downgrading it to uselessness. An entirely self-inflicted delay.)
The best time to have done nuclear would have been 60 years ago – today being the second best.
and there is no evidence they will perform as promoted
Thorcon is using a nucleonic design very similar to one already proven to work in the famous MSR-E in the 1960's. There is ample, rock solid evidence that it will perform as intended.
But we have been over this ground before. If you are going to cling to the the ‘it hasn’t been done therefore it cannot be done’ excuse – I have nothing more to add.
I do not dismiss what you propose because it has not been done before…i question why it has not been achieved to date.
Consider…there are at least 32 countries with access to the required material in a world crying out for energy. even if the US regulators have been nobbled, if you have a viable proposal to provided energy ( and all that flows from that) then somebody will have provided the wherewithal for this 'proven' method to be developed….the fact that nobody to date is evidence there are issues that are not readily apparent
Also the fact that someone like Michaux, with his obvious interaction with the energy sector, hasnt deemed it worthy of consideration is also indicative.
The best way to make a case is to demonstrate capability….if and when that happens it cannot be denied.
I have now read through Michaux's document that you linked to. I skimmed most of it looking for the Gen 4 analysis – and yes it is there. Actually it is better than I had hoped. He concludes that it would definitely be the best of the four main nuclear scenarios he considers. However he boxes himself in on five fronts:
He calculates almost 180 years of Gen 4 thorium cycle fuel supply, but then does not consider the eventual development of an efficient thorium breeder cycle – that would extend this life indefinitely. (He also only uses proven reserves of high grade thorium mineral resources that are currently mined, but if you allow for the economic extraction from lower grades – there is a vastly greater reserve available.)
He also then calculates an accumulating high level SNF waste pile that requires active energy to cool – that eventually becomes unmanageably large. Molten salt thorium reactors have the opportunity to perform a continuous fuel reprocessing using chemical methods – that avoid much of this problem. There is decades of development needed to bring this solution to production scale, but neither is it is a problem that needs solving immediately. This is a can we can safely kick down the road.
Same with the development of specialised fast-spectrum waste burner reactors that massively reduce the volume and half-life of the ultimate waste stream. Again we have decades to solve that problem before it is needed.
And in his calculations he explicitly assumes it takes 5 years to build each new plant, while I have shown it is entirely reasonable to build them far faster than this.
And finally I think he missed an important point that Gen 4 fission is likely to only be needed for a limited period, until we can solve the fusion problem at scale. And it only takes one key innovator to crack the puzzle. For instance this fusion startup is very impressive.
In essence we don't need Gen 4 fission to solve our energy problem for millennia into the future – we really only need it to bridge the gap for maybe 50 – 100 yrs until fusion becomes cheap and abundant. And that eliminates all of the constraints Michaux describes.
'IF 'fusion becomes available…but you miss his main point…even with a 5 year build time (not going to happen…we cant build one (average output) inside 10 years currently…we sure as hell arnt going to build 25 per annum on a 5 year time frame in the next 10-20 years)…we will not replace the energy lost from fossil fuels in the forseeable….and that means LESS output!
(not going to happen…we cant build one (average output) inside 10 years currently…we sure as hell arnt going to build 25 per annum on a 5 year time frame in the next 10-20 years)
Yes but that statement may well be true, but it is only useful if you understand why we are currently building them too slowly. The reason is not a physical constraint we cannot overcome – it is mostly a political one that is almost entirely within our control.
Hell back in the 70's and 80's there was no problem building reactors fast and cheap, and most of them are still running just fine today. And that was using Gen 2 designs that are far harder to build. The absurd 10 or more year builds that have been taking place since then have nothing to do with how long it takes to build them, and everything to do with a regulatory framework designed to prevent them from being built.
As I have said a few times before – the solutions are there, we are just choosing not to take them.
Key made his choice based on the circumstance in 2008 and the goal of NZF (then in coalition with an outgoing Labour admin) going under 5% was realised. This allowed his National and ACT or MP governing majority of the 2008-2017 era.
This time NZF is campaigning from an opposition to the current government, and Key's advice is to consider a National and ACT or NZF strategy. Puting NZF into the role played by the Maori Party in his time. That allows the opportunity for National to reduce the influence of both on government policy (given ACT and NZF have significant differences), an approach designed to gather as many centrist votes to National as possible.
Peters own strategy is to note those on the centre right who voted Labour to give them a majority without the Greens. He wants some of these voters to go with NZF to counter a NACT government further to the right than they would want.
I went to Winston’s rally when he came to my area. I have never gone to any political rally before. But I had time on my hands, and the person who wanted me to attend with them sucked me in by saying there would be ''finger food'' at the venue.
As per the link Winston started with the concept of freedom, mentioning both the ''baby blood saga'' and the many ''ordinary'' Kiwis he had met at the parliamentary protest who had lost jobs because of the vaccine mandate. He made a clear demarcation between ''crazies'' and ''ordinary'' protesters.
I couldn't help thinking Winston was missing the mark with the assembled audience. The audience was younger than I'd have expected. I was surprised at the Maori and young folk in attendance. Maybe they thought there would be ''finger food'' on tap too?
All in all, a flat lifeless presentation by Winston until… until the floor was opened for questions. Then the charismatic Winston came to the fore. One liners, quips, barbs for the media and political opponents. He became a different man. Watching the enigma that is Winston Peters was a fascinating experience.
Interesting. I had dinner one evening in 2001 at the Green Parrot with Winston holding court at a nearby table, and how entertaining was that! Whatever you might think of his politics, Peters is a remarkable politician and NZ Parliament would have been the poorer without him.
Winston First… he doesn't care about anything except his ego.
David Lange once described Winston Peters as the "only member of Parliament to have a concrete block named after him and I can understand that".
He also noted that Peters, not present to hear his valedictory speech to Parliament in 1996, "would have been with us today if he hadn't been detained by a full-length mirror".
There was no ''finger food.'' My naivety regarding political rallies was evident. Given there was about 200 people present, and Winston was passing the hat around, we would have considered ourselves luck if we saw a picture of finger food. I did however have one mini Mars Bar. A delightful old biddy sitting next to me smiled and said ''take one.'' ''One'' was emphasised. Obviously she sensed my low blood glucose, but at the same time my feral looks probably urged her to be cautious in case I snatched all three Mars bars in the packet.
Nobody here is making any mistakes regarding your political leanings. In fact, shortly (a week) after you started commenting on this forum under your current user name you made this declaration:
I decided to leave the the E out for brevity. [sic]
Your debating skills are poor and you don’t comment here in good faith. Unfortunately, this takes up a lot of bandwidth from other commenters and they’re wasting their precious time & effort on you, IMO. I knew this would happen as soon as I released you back onto the reserve – it is déjà vu all over again
To quote Mandy Rice Davies…'Well he would say that wouldn't he?'
Ian Powell used to have my attention. I regard him now as a perpetual nay sayer with no good ideas but plenty of criticism and this has been his modus operandi.
It has probably got to with the nature of the people he represented as Executive Officer. Many union commentators have a world or NZ view of politics that informs their work
We can argue the merits of mass vaccination, lockdowns and so on, quoting expert research and analysis until the cows come home. But the issues raised by Malloy are all solid management and political questions that are well within our wheelhouse to consider.
The Royal Commission NZ is holding into the COVID response is a promising sign that the system is prepared to consider learning from the experience. Arguably not everything we did was worth doing, and some things may well have had a higher cost than benefit.
The aviation industry learned decades ago the correct path to real safety; installing black boxes and cockpit voice recorders, and intensive 'no blame' investigations after every incident to properly uncover the root causes and the chain of events. It has proven to be a remarkably effective model.
Reads like anti-Labour polemic. Does the Govt get any credit for a world leading pandemic response, and saving thousands of lives. Nope. Zilch. Does Covid, or the failing DHB model get mentioned as a factor in the present difficulties? Nope.
The reforms were needed, there is never a perfect time to make these kinds of fundamental changes, but we could not carry on with whole regions getting hacked (Waikato DHB) and people having to shift around the country just to get a fscking appointment
“To cap off this leadership failure, the Government made the inexplicable political call to restructure the health system….in the midst of a health pandemic”
”It took this extraordinarily irresponsible political step in the full knowledge that public hospitals and general practices did not have the capacity to cope with the pandemic pressure”
So nothing in his article to say when would have been a good time, what would have been the arguments for and against and then caps it all off by saying health union leaders have not been commenting on the issue. Perhaps on balance union leaders believe that the restructure has more going for it than against it, in the long term.
Results for the Fiji election are due this afternoon- barring interestingly timed delays, such as happened on Wednesday night. Fijian immigrants to Aotearoa, that I have talked to; are a bit worried about what is happening back there. Yes, the head of the military has vowed not to interfere, but Rabuka was only a senior officer, not head of the military (though Bainimarama was), with the support of a couple dozen soldiers when they did their first coup. The provisional numbers seem to be set to give the combined opposition a majority (once subthreshold votes are excluded), if they can work together:
Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama's FijiFirst government is currently ahead in the tally with 42 per cent of the vote.
Sitiveni Rabuka's People's Alliance is sitting on 36 per cent, while the National Federation Party has just under nine per cent and the Social Democratic Liberal Party five.
The other five political parties are sitting under the five per cent threshold…
Rabuka – also a former coup leader turned prime minister – who has flagged a coalition with the National Federation Party.
The final decision on who to form government with could come down to Social Democratic Liberal Party leader Viliame Gavoka.
And the likelihood of opposition parties working to form a coalition government seem to have increased by alleged irregularities in this election. Rabuka was leader of SoDeLiPa in the 2018, and there is reportedly not much love lost between him and his successor (by intraparty coup), but they both seem more opposed to the present Prime Minister's government more – for now.
People’s Alliance and four other opposition parties on Friday launched a petition calling for an independent audit and a recount, after saying they had no confidence in the election process.
Rabuka was brought in for questioning by the police after questioning the election process. And other party's members are apparently under investigation. But maybe more important in the Fiji political culture is this:
Police also took in the head of the Methodist Church in Fiji and Rotuma, Reverend Ili Vunisuwai, for questioning at the Valelevu police station in Nasinu.
Vunisiwai had sent a letter on behalf of the Methodist Church to the Fiji president on Thursday expressing concern about the counting of the votes and inconsistencies in the electronic results management app and included the military commander and police chief in the communication.
It's nearly an hour since the final results should have been out, and still nothing in RNZ. Which is a bit concerning. This was from earlier:
As 6am local time of the Fiji Election Office results app showed 1994 out of 2071 polling stations or 96.3 percent had been counted.
The results by party have the ruling Fiji First Party in the lead with a 42.47 percent share of the votes counted so far.
The People's Alliance Party is in second place with 35.87 percent followed by the National Federation Party on 8.86 percent and the Social Democratic Liberal party precariously perched at 5.2 percent; just above the 5 percent threshold needed to get into parliament.
I don't know that I agree with the RNZ assessment. If SoDeLP do make it over the Threshold that is 92.5% total votes with 7.5% subthreshold. Which gives Fiji First roughly 46% to the combined opposition's 54%.
It would appear so; Sacha. However it is a very new constitution brought in by Bainimarama after a coup, with significant ammendments from the original proposal – in particular about declaring states of emergency, and leniency for military action against the government. There have only been two elections under this constitution so far (2014 & 2018) and neither have resulted in a coalition government.
Results are now 3 hours late. But if the results are accepted by those currently in power, then a coalition of the present opposition parties seems likely:
As it stands, the PAP-NFP coalition have a lead of 44.6% combined share of votes and have 26 projected seats in Fiji’s 52-member parliament.
A grand coalition could be formed with fourth-placed Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA), who have three projected seats from 5.1% of votes.
Zelensky and staff talked to The Economist about Russia, the war being on the edge, Ukrainian reluctance to compromise on territory, and prospects for the coming year.
In recent days The Economist has interviewed the three men at the crux of Ukraine’s war effort. One is Mr Zelensky. The second is General Valery Zaluzhny, who has served as the country’s top soldier for the past year and a half. The third is Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces, who masterminded the defence of Kyiv in the spring and Ukraine’s spectacular counter-offensive in Kharkiv province in September. All three men emphasised that the outcome of the war hinges on the next few months. They are convinced that Russia is readying another big offensive, to begin as soon as January. Whether Ukraine launches a pre-emptive strike of its own or waits to counter-attack, how it garners and distributes its forces, how much ammunition and equipment it amasses in the coming weeks and months—these looming decisions will determine their country’s future.
”Putin’s insecurity might start with anxiety about his personal future, but he has extended this into a vision for Russia that involves a permanent struggle with the West and its liberalism. There is little NATO can do about this vision except to ensure Russia’s defeat in Ukraine. “
You know The Daily Blog has completely lost it when they print a Tremain cartoon. They are usually only given the light of day in NACT meme groups and troll farms.
WTF is wrong with National MPs? Barbara Kuriger has been misusing her MP status to run interference for her son (he was prosecuted for animal mistreatment), and run a campaign of attacks against Fonterra and MPI
This was up yesterday about Kruger's emails and misuse of her position.. Yes a window on their world of entitlement… but Nania Mahuta gets pilloried by those Nats.
Over at DailyKos, Thom Hartmann chronicles 40 years of Reaganism and the unfolding destruction of the common wealth of the USA by the predatory 0.01%. It's a hard read. But in the middle of it is a shining reminder of a brief moment in history when pro-social values held the political high ground
Before Reagan, we’d passed the right to unionize, which built America’s first middle class. We passed unemployment insurance and workplace safety rules to protect workers. Social Security largely ended poverty among the elderly, and Medicare provided them with health security.
A top personal income tax rate between 74% and 91% throughout that period kept wages strong for working people and prevented the corrosive wealth inequality we see today. We didn’t get our first billionaire until after the Reagan revolution.
America built colleges that were free or affordable; gleaming new nonprofit hospitals; the world’s finest system of public schools; and new roads, bridges, rail, and airports from coast to coast.
We cleaned up the environment with the Environmental Protection Agency, cleaned up politics with the Federal Elections Commission, cleaned up corporate backroom deals with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We outlawed banks from gambling with our deposits via the Glass-Steagall law.
Sadly, we see even in New Zealand this is not the norm, but something workers and democracy-minded parties have to actively fight for. Because powerful moneyed interests prefer their exploitations and scams not to be subject to inconveniences like ethics or law.
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Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedFirst they came for the doctors But I was confused by the numbers and costs So I didn't speak up Then they came for our police and nurses And I didn't think we could afford those costs anyway So I ...
Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on UnsplashWe’re back again after our mid-winter break. We’re still with the ‘new’ day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when we have our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream ...
Notes: This is a free article. Abuse in Care themes are mentioned. Video is at the bottom.BackgroundYesterday’s report into Abuse in Care revealed that at least 1 in 3 of all who went through state and faith based care were abused - often horrifically. At least, because not all survivors ...
Luxon speaks in Parliament yesterday about the Abuse in Care report. Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:PM Christopher Luxon said yesterday in tabling the Abuse in Carereport in Parliament he wanted to ‘do the ...
About a decade ago I worked with a bloke called Steve. He was the grizzled veteran coder, a few years older than me, who knew where the bodies were buried - code wise. Despite his best efforts to be approachable and friendly he could be kind of gruff, through to ...
Some of the recent announcements from the government have reminded us of posts we’ve written in the past. Here’s one from early 2020. There were plenty of reactions to the government’s infrastructure announcement a few weeks ago which saw them fund a bunch of big roading projects. One of ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquirypublished its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone iconon the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive:Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloittereport for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’sOliver LewisScoop:Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announcedthe Board of Te Whatu Ora-Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
Te Rangi e tu nei (The sky above us) Te Papa e takoto nei (The land beneath us) Tatou katoa te hunga ora (To us all the living) Tena koutou katoa (Greetings) ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests. Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone. Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
Last summer when Matairangi burned, Ginny and Tom stood at the window of their lounge, watching kākā shoot skyward from the burning trees. From the distance, they looked to Ginny like pages torn from books and thrown into a bonfire. It was Tom, voice tight, who told her it was ...
Opinion: The Canadian short story writer Alice Munro – winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2013 – died in May at the age of 92. Her work was about “the damage people inflict on one another in the name of love”, Deborah Treisman wrote in the New Yorker. ...
This month marks two years since the most powerful telescope ever built sent its first pictures back to earth. From its lofty vantage point, beyond the moon in orbit around the sun, the James Webb Space Telescope was tuned to observe the first stars and galaxies being born soon after ...
Comment: After Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ preview several weeks ago, I had some optimism about the Government’s emissions reduction plan. Now I’ve read the discussion document, that hope has been dashed. How can the Government propose a plan that wants to take New Zealand taxpayers’ hard-earned money, and spend ...
Christopher Luxon: hurdles The little man from National jumps hurdles in his sleep. He’s quite good at it in his dreams and even though the reality doesn’t quite match up you have to give him credit for getting up every morning and crashing into the very first hurdle of the ...
Comment: It was a good two hours into the conversation when Tyrone Marks raised the most basic of questions when I first spoke to him in 2017. “They didn’t explain the things they did to me. They never told me why. And they still haven’t. There’s no explanation for it. ...
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Spend an hour (on a rainy day) informing yourself.
I am watching this and basically agree with the general thrust of what I am seeing – albeit with some quibbles. For instance at the 41 min mark he shows a key table that sums up total estimated metals requirement and then divides by 2019 production and arrives at some very long timeframes indeed.
Yet the production figures for just two of those metals – lithium and vanadium are already out of date. I was deeply involved last year in a project that increased battery grade lithium production from the 95,170 tonnes figure he quotes by another 48,000 tonnes. And next year I will be involved in doubling it again and the same again for the next four or five years to a total of almost 250,000 tonnes. And this is just one project globally. Nonetheless I agree I with his conclusion, there is not enough known lithium reserves globally to ever be the dominant battery chemistry.
As for vanadium – just last week I was speaking with the PM for a brand new Australian site that will increase production of this metal referenced 96,000 tonnes by another 20,000 tonnes. And this is a relatively modest site.
So I have first hand knowledge that at least some of his numbers are squishy. Yet that does not take away from the broad conclusion he reaches and one that I have been making for a while; that the proponents of SWB renewables are guilty of glossing over some of the innate constraints they face.
We have discussed alternatives to copper elsewhere – although again oddly enough this next year I will be spending about a third of my time consulting to a massive new copper concentrator.
My point is that the kind of projection Michaux is making here is not easy to get correct in the detail – but he can still be correct in the big picture.
As he qualifies, the numbers are broad based and conservative, and 2019 production figures are used for good reason.
In the grand scheme of things when you conservatively estimate over 7000 years of annual copper production (nevermind the reserves) required in the next 20 talk of solving these issues with recycling is a nonsense.
As he states near the end, as its impossible it will not occur.
OK so I have gotten through the entire thing – but only the lightest possible mention of nuclear. While he praises it's high performance he then airily dismisses it as 'taking too long' and recycles the old waste storage myth. And there is a brief mention in the Q&A of Gen 4 and thorium, but still no data.
On the whole however I fully agree with the broad thrust of his argument; that we have grossly underestimated the challenge of replacing just our current fossil fuel energy consumption, much less the future requirement necessary to support human development this century. Depending on the assumptions made, we will need somewhere between 3 to 8 times our current energy. Which is of course impossible with any projection of current technologies – except Gen 4 nuclear.
In my mind I keep returning to the Kaya Identity as a guide to this puzzle. It essentially tells us there are four levers we have to the carbon problem:
Of these four levers only one of them can be physically driven to zero – and that is the last term – Carbon Intensity. And there are only two technologies that can deliver on zero carbon:
Essentially Michaux clearly demonstrates that due to the diffuse and intermittent nature of solar and wind renewables the amount of material necessary to build them is impossibly large given current technologies. (On the basis of far less data and rigor I have been making the same argument here for ages.)
Nuclear by contrast is a highly dense and reliable energy source which is the primary reason it can deliver the energy needed within a sane resources budget. But to get there we have to throw away many of the out of date assumptions we have about it:
If we build factory build nuclear plants using the same methods we use for large ships, the time and costs will be better than for existing coal or gas.
If we build nuclear plants using anything but conventional PWR technology – they will be innately lower cost, far easier to operate, produce far less waste and make it reasonably possible to scale nuclear energy's already superb safety record to the numbers of reactors required. All this I have covered in detail elsewhere.
And the old chestnut of waste storage is an entirely solved problem.
The outstanding challenge is regulatory; all of which is based on a fraudulent LNT model of radiation harm that adds utterly unjustified costs, delays and uncertainty to any nuclear project. Which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that Michaux repeats, that nuclear is too expensive and slow.
And to repeat myself – I do not advocate that AU or NZ need to be pioneers in this; we have the enormous luxury of having an excellent solar and wind resource we can use to bridge for several decades or more until mass scale, low cost nuclear becomes mature. In the meantime – can we please quit with the nihilistic 'the end of the world is nigh' sackcloth rendering – that only serves to alarm and discourage people from believing in their children's future. Enough already.
He addresses nuclear with a little more depth in other podcasts….his two main issues with it are again the same, scale and time.
There is not enough of either.
Again – both are myths based on out of date projections. It is exactly like examining WW2 radio technology and insisting from this study that cell phones are impossible.
(Just for laughs – yes I have seen and operated a ZC1 many years ago – quite a remarkable beast for the era it was built in, but generations out of date now. PWR nuclear reactors were also first devised in the 1940’s.)
Michaux displays no antipathy to nuclear energy any more than he does to e.g. copper…. he has simply looked at whats required and determined that its not viable, even less so than renewables, which as you have agreed he has demonstrated.
As he stated all of these figures dont include the energy/materials for the likes of earth works or concrete….that is all additional.
Again based on demonstrably out of date assumptions that inevitably lead him to the wrong conclusion. As I said above – if all you knew was WW2 radio technology you would incorrectly project that cellphones were impossible. You know this would be a stupid rookie mistake, yet somehow well informed, intelligent people are happy to repeat it when it comes to confirming their biases around nuclear. An odd blind spot.
Note the bolded emphasis I made in my comment above – density and reliability are the fundamental engineering drivers that distinguish SWB renewables from nuclear. Get your head around this and everything else follows.
The problems are numerous and he is probably across the latest developments more so than you are….if you wish to critique his argument then listen to what he has to say on the issue.
He covers nuclear in more depth in his discussion with Nate Hagens (along with other articles)
I watched your first clip and responded in depth. That is way more respect for the argument than you routinely give me.
If you want me to invest another hours worth of my attention you will need to explain why. And perhaps put some effort into responding to my carefully constructed argument above.
Respect???
Do you want information or not? The link is there, listen or not, its up to you.
I have invested several thousand hours this past five years or so educating myself on nuclear energy and the issues. If I watch this video I predict that Michaux will make the following claims:
That there is not enough uranium to last more than a 100 years or so
That the thorium cycle although more abundant is more complex and less efficient and does not solve the problem.
That Gen 4 reactors are no different and merely make the problem bigger.
That the resulting waste pile is enormous and cannot be dealt with because the future is too uncertain.
Does that cover it off?
FYI Pat
https://twitter.com/CSPopoff/status/1602755588060246017?s=20&t=ZoocgdgsSaAPHJhDGdZGXQ
It covers some of the points…but misses the main constraint…there is simply not enough time to build the required plant even if all impediments are removed.
I have attached a link to his research which covers all the scenarios he investigated and add his recommendations here
The following recommendations are made:
• Nuclear power is used to service heavy industry operations and heating requirements directly.
• Expansion of the fleet should be planned to a little bit larger in scope than reference scenario to make resources last.
• It is also recommended to develop a robust back end SNF handling system. The proposed storage of SNF and MOX fuel manufacture in the Generation III+ simulation is ambitious. It is recomended that a more practical version of this plan is developed.
• It is recomended to resource the development of Generation IV and thorium nuclear power technology.
You may note from the original podcast that he models expanding existing nuclear generation alongside the renewable implementation.
https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/42_2021.pdf
OK so for the sake of argument let us remove the technical and regulatory constraints. And yes absolutely if we build reactors in the conventional fashion as massive onsite projects you and Michaux would be right – it would indeed take too long.
(Although I must add that having squandered 60 years of not doing nuclear properly, I have little sympathy for those who complain we have now run out of time. But I'll set that one aside too.)
But that is not how to do Gen 4 reactors. We already have all of the engineering capacity to deliver new reactors far faster than we could even with solar and wind. Here is how:
Or here:
Now I can understand Michaux not including this rapid build pathway because the data would be speculative. But to use this self-imposed limitation of his own study to claim that it cannot be done is not reasonable either.
@ Roblogic…it may be , especially if they can develop fusion. However that will require a functioning society if it is to occur and if the problems are not resolved PDQ there wont be such an environment.
I should add that I do not want to come across as overly critical of Michaux. My first comment still stands – there is a lot of solid work in what I have read so far. I am scanning that pdf now and agree with much of what he is saying.
In particular he underlines just how challenging it is to replace our current fossil energy systems – and explains why in an accessible manner.
But in tackling such an ambitious scope it is inevitable that he will also skate past important details and innovation in specialist areas like nuclear.
How long have you been advocating this plan Red?…3 or 4 years? Where are they?
He is right not to include speculative ideas…that is no basis for analysis….after all aliens may arrive tomorrow and present us with an instant energy solution but i wouldnt waste too much time or energy on planning for it
Not quite that long. But now you have re-introduced other constraints to the timeline.
My inside info is that if Thorcon could ignore all regulatory requirements and supply chain issues – they could have the first one up and going within 6 – 8 months. As it is they are making steady progress, appointing a Certification Authority being an important and relatively mature milestone.
Comparing this to aliens arriving is frankly idiotic.
"Not quite that long. But now you have re-introduced other constraints to the timeline."
I have introduced nothing….these are unproven and there is no evidence they will perform as promoted….if these are to be any part of a solution they are rapidly running out of time to make an appearance.
I was responding to your first condition:
Well I demonstrated that this is not true – shipyard building can achieve the speed and scale needed – if all the impediments were removed. So then you effectively re-introduced the constraints that a real world developer like Thorcon have to work with by demanding to know why they have not delivered by now. Well if you cared to ask them as I have, it is meeting onerous, time consuming, sometimes capricious regulatory requirements and supply chain issues around accessing startup fuel that are the primary constraints they face.
(One of the most frustrating and perverse constraints is that the US DOE has a small stockpile of U-233 that would be an ideal startup fuel for thorium cycle based reactors – yet for reasons no-one can sanely explain hundreds of millions are being wasted downgrading it to uselessness. An entirely self-inflicted delay.)
The best time to have done nuclear would have been 60 years ago – today being the second best.
Thorcon is using a nucleonic design very similar to one already proven to work in the famous MSR-E in the 1960's. There is ample, rock solid evidence that it will perform as intended.
But we have been over this ground before. If you are going to cling to the the ‘it hasn’t been done therefore it cannot be done’ excuse – I have nothing more to add.
You appear to misunderstand my position.
I do not dismiss what you propose because it has not been done before…i question why it has not been achieved to date.
Consider…there are at least 32 countries with access to the required material in a world crying out for energy. even if the US regulators have been nobbled, if you have a viable proposal to provided energy ( and all that flows from that) then somebody will have provided the wherewithal for this 'proven' method to be developed….the fact that nobody to date is evidence there are issues that are not readily apparent
Also the fact that someone like Michaux, with his obvious interaction with the energy sector, hasnt deemed it worthy of consideration is also indicative.
The best way to make a case is to demonstrate capability….if and when that happens it cannot be denied.
I have now read through Michaux's document that you linked to. I skimmed most of it looking for the Gen 4 analysis – and yes it is there. Actually it is better than I had hoped. He concludes that it would definitely be the best of the four main nuclear scenarios he considers. However he boxes himself in on five fronts:
In essence we don't need Gen 4 fission to solve our energy problem for millennia into the future – we really only need it to bridge the gap for maybe 50 – 100 yrs until fusion becomes cheap and abundant. And that eliminates all of the constraints Michaux describes.
'IF 'fusion becomes available…but you miss his main point…even with a 5 year build time (not going to happen…we cant build one (average output) inside 10 years currently…we sure as hell arnt going to build 25 per annum on a 5 year time frame in the next 10-20 years)…we will not replace the energy lost from fossil fuels in the forseeable….and that means LESS output!
A downward spiral.
Time…always time.
Yes but that statement may well be true, but it is only useful if you understand why we are currently building them too slowly. The reason is not a physical constraint we cannot overcome – it is mostly a political one that is almost entirely within our control.
Hell back in the 70's and 80's there was no problem building reactors fast and cheap, and most of them are still running just fine today. And that was using Gen 2 designs that are far harder to build. The absurd 10 or more year builds that have been taking place since then have nothing to do with how long it takes to build them, and everything to do with a regulatory framework designed to prevent them from being built.
As I have said a few times before – the solutions are there, we are just choosing not to take them.
Tom Lehrer has put all his songs online, including lyrics and sheet music, and given away all rights to them. (the site will be up for a short time).
https://tomlehrersongs.com/albums/the-remains-of-tom-lehrer-disc-3/
https://tomlehrersongs.com/
Interesting article by Andrea Vance this morning.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/300766847/will-christopher-luxon-write-the-final-act-of-winston-peters-career
”Does Christopher Luxon have the balls to write the final act of Winston Peters’ career?”
I suspect the answer is no.
Key made his choice based on the circumstance in 2008 and the goal of NZF (then in coalition with an outgoing Labour admin) going under 5% was realised. This allowed his National and ACT or MP governing majority of the 2008-2017 era.
This time NZF is campaigning from an opposition to the current government, and Key's advice is to consider a National and ACT or NZF strategy. Puting NZF into the role played by the Maori Party in his time. That allows the opportunity for National to reduce the influence of both on government policy (given ACT and NZF have significant differences), an approach designed to gather as many centrist votes to National as possible.
Peters own strategy is to note those on the centre right who voted Labour to give them a majority without the Greens. He wants some of these voters to go with NZF to counter a NACT government further to the right than they would want.
I went to Winston’s rally when he came to my area. I have never gone to any political rally before. But I had time on my hands, and the person who wanted me to attend with them sucked me in by saying there would be ''finger food'' at the venue.
As per the link Winston started with the concept of freedom, mentioning both the ''baby blood saga'' and the many ''ordinary'' Kiwis he had met at the parliamentary protest who had lost jobs because of the vaccine mandate. He made a clear demarcation between ''crazies'' and ''ordinary'' protesters.
I couldn't help thinking Winston was missing the mark with the assembled audience. The audience was younger than I'd have expected. I was surprised at the Maori and young folk in attendance. Maybe they thought there would be ''finger food'' on tap too?
All in all, a flat lifeless presentation by Winston until… until the floor was opened for questions. Then the charismatic Winston came to the fore. One liners, quips, barbs for the media and political opponents. He became a different man. Watching the enigma that is Winston Peters was a fascinating experience.
My guess is NZ1 will plop over the 5% line.
Interesting. I had dinner one evening in 2001 at the Green Parrot with Winston holding court at a nearby table, and how entertaining was that! Whatever you might think of his politics, Peters is a remarkable politician and NZ Parliament would have been the poorer without him.
I agree. I believe the Green Parrot was his favourite haunt, since closed?
Winston First… he doesn't care about anything except his ego.
David Lange once described Winston Peters as the "only member of Parliament to have a concrete block named after him and I can understand that".
He also noted that Peters, not present to hear his valedictory speech to Parliament in 1996, "would have been with us today if he hadn't been detained by a full-length mirror".
My guess is that NZ1 will plop.
But I still want to know about the finger food
What was it? and was there enough?
There was no ''finger food.'' My naivety regarding political rallies was evident. Given there was about 200 people present, and Winston was passing the hat around, we would have considered ourselves luck if we saw a picture of finger food. I did however have one mini Mars Bar. A delightful old biddy sitting next to me smiled and said ''take one.'' ''One'' was emphasised. Obviously she sensed my low blood glucose, but at the same time my feral looks probably urged her to be cautious in case I snatched all three Mars bars in the packet.
I have never been what you would consider a real socialist. I'm a swing voter as I have already stated. Hence X instead of EX.
''The letter "x" is often used in algebra to mean a value that is not yet known.''
Mickey Savage made the same mistake. The thing is I read he's a lawyer(?) You aren't. Fify.
''What happened to National’s policy machine?''
mickysavage…
16 November 2022 at 8:38 pm
''You can guarantee from his name that he was never ever a socialist.''
Nobody here is making any mistakes regarding your political leanings. In fact, shortly (a week) after you started commenting on this forum under your current user name you made this declaration:
Your debating skills are poor and you don’t comment here in good faith. Unfortunately, this takes up a lot of bandwidth from other commenters and they’re wasting their precious time & effort on you, IMO. I knew this would happen as soon as I released you back onto the reserve – it is déjà vu all over again![sad sad](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/sad_smile.png?x42494)
Current user name! Are we allowed to play a game of guess the old name?
Reminds me if a master baiter of a certain collour.
Leave it to the Mods, thanks. They know what they are doing.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/12/18/guest-blog-ian-powell-so-much-stuffed-up-by-so-few-reflecting-on-2022/
Ian Powell nails it
To quote Mandy Rice Davies…'Well he would say that wouldn't he?'
Ian Powell used to have my attention. I regard him now as a perpetual nay sayer with no good ideas but plenty of criticism and this has been his modus operandi.
It has probably got to with the nature of the people he represented as Executive Officer. Many union commentators have a world or NZ view of politics that informs their work
A very good article Anker.
We can argue the merits of mass vaccination, lockdowns and so on, quoting expert research and analysis until the cows come home. But the issues raised by Malloy are all solid management and political questions that are well within our wheelhouse to consider.
The Royal Commission NZ is holding into the COVID response is a promising sign that the system is prepared to consider learning from the experience. Arguably not everything we did was worth doing, and some things may well have had a higher cost than benefit.
The aviation industry learned decades ago the correct path to real safety; installing black boxes and cockpit voice recorders, and intensive 'no blame' investigations after every incident to properly uncover the root causes and the chain of events. It has proven to be a remarkably effective model.
Reads like anti-Labour polemic. Does the Govt get any credit for a world leading pandemic response, and saving thousands of lives. Nope. Zilch. Does Covid, or the failing DHB model get mentioned as a factor in the present difficulties? Nope.
The reforms were needed, there is never a perfect time to make these kinds of fundamental changes, but we could not carry on with whole regions getting hacked (Waikato DHB) and people having to shift around the country just to get a fscking appointment
Ran out of time to quote from the link above
ian Powells article on the health system
“To cap off this leadership failure, the Government made the inexplicable political call to restructure the health system….in the midst of a health pandemic”
”It took this extraordinarily irresponsible political step in the full knowledge that public hospitals and general practices did not have the capacity to cope with the pandemic pressure”
The quote illustrates my point beautifully.
So nothing in his article to say when would have been a good time, what would have been the arguments for and against and then caps it all off by saying health union leaders have not been commenting on the issue. Perhaps on balance union leaders believe that the restructure has more going for it than against it, in the long term.
Results for the Fiji election are due this afternoon- barring interestingly timed delays, such as happened on Wednesday night. Fijian immigrants to Aotearoa, that I have talked to; are a bit worried about what is happening back there. Yes, the head of the military has vowed not to interfere, but Rabuka was only a senior officer, not head of the military (though Bainimarama was), with the support of a couple dozen soldiers when they did their first coup. The provisional numbers seem to be set to give the combined opposition a majority (once subthreshold votes are excluded), if they can work together:
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8023801/fiji-election-to-come-down-to-the-wire/
And the likelihood of opposition parties working to form a coalition government seem to have increased by alleged irregularities in this election. Rabuka was leader of SoDeLiPa in the 2018, and there is reportedly not much love lost between him and his successor (by intraparty coup), but they both seem more opposed to the present Prime Minister's government more – for now.
https://www.euronews.com/2022/12/17/fiji-election
Rabuka was brought in for questioning by the police after questioning the election process. And other party's members are apparently under investigation. But maybe more important in the Fiji political culture is this:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/480927/rabuka-calls-for-calm-after-fiji-police-interrogation
I would say it's popcorn time this arvo, but the consequences are so dire if it goes pear-shaped that I doubt I will have much of an appetite.
It's nearly an hour since the final results should have been out, and still nothing in RNZ. Which is a bit concerning. This was from earlier:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/480976/by-the-numbers-2022-fiji-election-count-in-home-stretch
I don't know that I agree with the RNZ assessment. If SoDeLP do make it over the Threshold that is 92.5% total votes with 7.5% subthreshold. Which gives Fiji First roughly 46% to the combined opposition's 54%.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27Hondt_method
Does Fiji's constitution enable coalitions to form government if another single party has a higher individual vote?
It would appear so; Sacha. However it is a very new constitution brought in by Bainimarama after a coup, with significant ammendments from the original proposal – in particular about declaring states of emergency, and leniency for military action against the government. There have only been two elections under this constitution so far (2014 & 2018) and neither have resulted in a coalition government.
Results are now 3 hours late. But if the results are accepted by those currently in power, then a coalition of the present opposition parties seems likely:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/130798574/fiji-election-final-results-going-to-be-very-interesting-political-sociologist-dr-steven-ratuva-says
Though that seems to be Stuff (or possibly Ratuva) working from a previous election model, as the number of seats increased to 55 this year.
https://www.ifes.org/tools-resources/election-snapshots/elections-fiji-2022-general-election
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/101785528
Thank you. Cannot picture Bainimarama ceding power gracefully somehow.
Send in Winston 🙂
https://twitter.com/MichaelFieldNZ/status/1604306307837702144
Zelensky and staff talked to The Economist about Russia, the war being on the edge, Ukrainian reluctance to compromise on territory, and prospects for the coming year.
In recent days The Economist has interviewed the three men at the crux of Ukraine’s war effort. One is Mr Zelensky. The second is General Valery Zaluzhny, who has served as the country’s top soldier for the past year and a half. The third is Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces, who masterminded the defence of Kyiv in the spring and Ukraine’s spectacular counter-offensive in Kharkiv province in September. All three men emphasised that the outcome of the war hinges on the next few months. They are convinced that Russia is readying another big offensive, to begin as soon as January. Whether Ukraine launches a pre-emptive strike of its own or waits to counter-attack, how it garners and distributes its forces, how much ammunition and equipment it amasses in the coming weeks and months—these looming decisions will determine their country’s future.
https://archive.vn/SC66C
Two different worlds
More interesting reading from Lawrence Freedman re Putin and security.
https://samf.substack.com/p/who-can-guarantee-russian-security?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0ODA3MDgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjkxMDYwNzg2LCJpYXQiOjE2NzEyNzAwNDQsImV4cCI6MTY3Mzg2MjA0NCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTYzMTQyMiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.VfUE-hnbgj6wStqIWVMhJnLog4z6-fPXbnfIELr8gTg&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
”Putin’s insecurity might start with anxiety about his personal future, but he has extended this into a vision for Russia that involves a permanent struggle with the West and its liberalism. There is little NATO can do about this vision except to ensure Russia’s defeat in Ukraine. “
You know The Daily Blog has completely lost it when they print a Tremain cartoon. They are usually only given the light of day in NACT meme groups and troll farms.
Did it have the word 'woke' in it..
WTF is wrong with National MPs? Barbara Kuriger has been misusing her MP status to run interference for her son (he was prosecuted for animal mistreatment), and run a campaign of attacks against Fonterra and MPI
MP's Emails Show Pattern Of Personal Attacks On Ministry | Newsroom
This was up yesterday about Kruger's emails and misuse of her position.. Yes a window on their world of entitlement… but Nania Mahuta gets pilloried by those Nats.
Yet another example of Luxon’s weakness. He has no control of his caucus.
Expect the Nats to run media rounds tomorrow with her either being removed or defended, depending on their internal polling about it.
Actually worth listening to – 6 mins of Garner just telling the truth about housing policy over the last decade or so.
https://twitter.com/rugbyintel/status/1565836962946097157
Only noticed after posting that it was from September. Has he done any similar pieces since?
Ouch.
https://twitter.com/Frank68332165/status/1604004153835114497
What did he think was going to happen?
https://twitter.com/mashable/status/1604178385701330944
Well, he can buy reddit next, and all the emails, dms and shit that come with it. Just like he did with twitter.
Doxing bad when its people we like, doxing good when its people we don't like.
It's called "abuse of power" when used to punch down on those who cannot fight back.
It's called "whistleblowing" or "accountability" or "journalism" when used against the powerful to reveal things they would prefer to remain hidden
Ahhh, so who is who in your scenario?
Billionaires are the enemy of freedom & democracy & human rights, so they should be uncomfortable when the truth about their vast crimes is revealed
Over at DailyKos, Thom Hartmann chronicles 40 years of Reaganism and the unfolding destruction of the common wealth of the USA by the predatory 0.01%. It's a hard read. But in the middle of it is a shining reminder of a brief moment in history when pro-social values held the political high ground
Sadly, we see even in New Zealand this is not the norm, but something workers and democracy-minded parties have to actively fight for. Because powerful moneyed interests prefer their exploitations and scams not to be subject to inconveniences like ethics or law.
Is he gonna do Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama next?