I am watching this and basically agree with the general thrust of what I am seeing – albeit with some quibbles. For instance at the 41 min mark he shows a key table that sums up total estimated metals requirement and then divides by 2019 production and arrives at some very long timeframes indeed.
Yet the production figures for just two of those metals – lithium and vanadium are already out of date. I was deeply involved last year in a project that increased battery grade lithium production from the 95,170 tonnes figure he quotes by another 48,000 tonnes. And next year I will be involved in doubling it again and the same again for the next four or five years to a total of almost 250,000 tonnes. And this is just one project globally. Nonetheless I agree I with his conclusion, there is not enough known lithium reserves globally to ever be the dominant battery chemistry.
As for vanadium – just last week I was speaking with the PM for a brand new Australian site that will increase production of this metal referenced 96,000 tonnes by another 20,000 tonnes. And this is a relatively modest site.
So I have first hand knowledge that at least some of his numbers are squishy. Yet that does not take away from the broad conclusion he reaches and one that I have been making for a while; that the proponents of SWB renewables are guilty of glossing over some of the innate constraints they face.
We have discussed alternatives to copper elsewhere – although again oddly enough this next year I will be spending about a third of my time consulting to a massive new copper concentrator.
My point is that the kind of projection Michaux is making here is not easy to get correct in the detail – but he can still be correct in the big picture.
As he qualifies, the numbers are broad based and conservative, and 2019 production figures are used for good reason.
In the grand scheme of things when you conservatively estimate over 7000 years of annual copper production (nevermind the reserves) required in the next 20 talk of solving these issues with recycling is a nonsense.
As he states near the end, as its impossible it will not occur.
OK so I have gotten through the entire thing – but only the lightest possible mention of nuclear. While he praises it's high performance he then airily dismisses it as 'taking too long' and recycles the old waste storage myth. And there is a brief mention in the Q&A of Gen 4 and thorium, but still no data.
On the whole however I fully agree with the broad thrust of his argument; that we have grossly underestimated the challenge of replacing just our current fossil fuel energy consumption, much less the future requirement necessary to support human development this century. Depending on the assumptions made, we will need somewhere between 3 to 8 times our current energy. Which is of course impossible with any projection of current technologies – except Gen 4 nuclear.
In my mind I keep returning to the Kaya Identity as a guide to this puzzle. It essentially tells us there are four levers we have to the carbon problem:
Population
Prosperity per Person
Energy Efficiency per unit of Prosperity
Carbon Intensity per unit of Energy
Of these four levers only one of them can be physically driven to zero – and that is the last term – Carbon Intensity. And there are only two technologies that can deliver on zero carbon:
Essentially Michaux clearly demonstrates that due to the diffuse and intermittent nature of solar and wind renewables the amount of material necessary to build them is impossibly large given current technologies. (On the basis of far less data and rigor I have been making the same argument here for ages.)
Nuclear by contrast is a highly dense and reliable energy source which is the primary reason it can deliver the energy needed within a sane resources budget. But to get there we have to throw away many of the out of date assumptions we have about it:
If we build factory build nuclear plants using the same methods we use for large ships, the time and costs will be better than for existing coal or gas.
If we build nuclear plants using anything but conventional PWR technology – they will be innately lower cost, far easier to operate, produce far less waste and make it reasonably possible to scale nuclear energy's already superb safety record to the numbers of reactors required. All this I have covered in detail elsewhere.
And the old chestnut of waste storage is an entirely solved problem.
The outstanding challenge is regulatory; all of which is based on a fraudulent LNT model of radiation harm that adds utterly unjustified costs, delays and uncertainty to any nuclear project. Which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that Michaux repeats, that nuclear is too expensive and slow.
And to repeat myself – I do not advocate that AU or NZ need to be pioneers in this; we have the enormous luxury of having an excellent solar and wind resource we can use to bridge for several decades or more until mass scale, low cost nuclear becomes mature. In the meantime – can we please quit with the nihilistic 'the end of the world is nigh' sackcloth rendering – that only serves to alarm and discourage people from believing in their children's future. Enough already.
Again – both are myths based on out of date projections. It is exactly like examining WW2 radio technology and insisting from this study that cell phones are impossible.
(Just for laughs – yes I have seen and operated a ZC1 many years ago – quite a remarkable beast for the era it was built in, but generations out of date now. PWR nuclear reactors were also first devised in the 1940’s.)
Michaux displays no antipathy to nuclear energy any more than he does to e.g. copper…. he has simply looked at whats required and determined that its not viable, even less so than renewables, which as you have agreed he has demonstrated.
As he stated all of these figures dont include the energy/materials for the likes of earth works or concrete….that is all additional.
he has simply looked at whats required and determined that its not viable, even less so than renewables,
Again based on demonstrably out of date assumptions that inevitably lead him to the wrong conclusion. As I said above – if all you knew was WW2 radio technology you would incorrectly project that cellphones were impossible. You know this would be a stupid rookie mistake, yet somehow well informed, intelligent people are happy to repeat it when it comes to confirming their biases around nuclear. An odd blind spot.
Note the bolded emphasis I made in my comment above – density and reliability are the fundamental engineering drivers that distinguish SWB renewables from nuclear. Get your head around this and everything else follows.
The problems are numerous and he is probably across the latest developments more so than you are….if you wish to critique his argument then listen to what he has to say on the issue.
He covers nuclear in more depth in his discussion with Nate Hagens (along with other articles)
I watched your first clip and responded in depth. That is way more respect for the argument than you routinely give me.
If you want me to invest another hours worth of my attention you will need to explain why. And perhaps put some effort into responding to my carefully constructed argument above.
I have invested several thousand hours this past five years or so educating myself on nuclear energy and the issues. If I watch this video I predict that Michaux will make the following claims:
That there is not enough uranium to last more than a 100 years or so
That the thorium cycle although more abundant is more complex and less efficient and does not solve the problem.
That Gen 4 reactors are no different and merely make the problem bigger.
That the resulting waste pile is enormous and cannot be dealt with because the future is too uncertain.
It covers some of the points…but misses the main constraint…there is simply not enough time to build the required plant even if all impediments are removed.
I have attached a link to his research which covers all the scenarios he investigated and add his recommendations here
The following recommendations are made:
• Nuclear power is used to service heavy industry operations and heating requirements directly.
• Expansion of the fleet should be planned to a little bit larger in scope than reference scenario to make resources last.
• It is also recommended to develop a robust back end SNF handling system. The proposed storage of SNF and MOX fuel manufacture in the Generation III+ simulation is ambitious. It is recomended that a more practical version of this plan is developed.
• It is recomended to resource the development of Generation IV and thorium nuclear power technology.
You may note from the original podcast that he models expanding existing nuclear generation alongside the renewable implementation.
OK so for the sake of argument let us remove the technical and regulatory constraints. And yes absolutely if we build reactors in the conventional fashion as massive onsite projects you and Michaux would be right – it would indeed take too long.
(Although I must add that having squandered 60 years of not doing nuclear properly, I have little sympathy for those who complain we have now run out of time. But I'll set that one aside too.)
But that is not how to do Gen 4 reactors. We already have all of the engineering capacity to deliver new reactors far faster than we could even with solar and wind. Here is how:
The masters of building big on an assembly line are the shipyards. World class commercial shipyards, exposed to a brutally competitive market, have developed truly remarkable productivity. I spent three years in Korea watching this magic. Flat plate comes in at one end of the property and an immense, complex ship goes out the other end. A good yard needs only 400,000 man-hours to build a ship weighing 30,000 tons, a little more than 10 man-hours per ton. This includes everything: coating, piping, wiring, machinery, and testing. The contract is fixed price, which will be about $3000 per ton. The ship will be built in less than a year. The ship must perform per contract and there are substantial penalties for late delivery.
The shipyards achieve their remarkable productivity by a combination of automation and block construction. Sub-assemblies are produced on a automated panel line, combined into assemblies, and then into fully coated blocks with HVAC, piping, wiring (and scaffolding if required) pre-installed. In the last step, super blocks, weighing as much as 3000 tons, are dropped into place in a building dock.
The steel weight of a 500 MW ThorCon is about 50,000 tons. The world’s largest shipyard can build more than 2,000,000 steel tons of ships per year. A single shipyard can produce 20 GW’s of ThorConIsle power per year. In terms of resource requirements, one gigawatt of ThorCon power is not a big deal. The scale up rate will not be limited by shipyard capacity, but by the rate at which the turbogenerators can be built.
Now I can understand Michaux not including this rapid build pathway because the data would be speculative. But to use this self-imposed limitation of his own study to claim that it cannot be done is not reasonable either.
@ Roblogic…it may be , especially if they can develop fusion. However that will require a functioning society if it is to occur and if the problems are not resolved PDQ there wont be such an environment.
I should add that I do not want to come across as overly critical of Michaux. My first comment still stands – there is a lot of solid work in what I have read so far. I am scanning that pdf now and agree with much of what he is saying.
In particular he underlines just how challenging it is to replace our current fossil energy systems – and explains why in an accessible manner.
But in tackling such an ambitious scope it is inevitable that he will also skate past important details and innovation in specialist areas like nuclear.
How long have you been advocating this plan Red?…3 or 4 years? Where are they?
He is right not to include speculative ideas…that is no basis for analysis….after all aliens may arrive tomorrow and present us with an instant energy solution but i wouldnt waste too much time or energy on planning for it
How long have you been advocating this plan Red?…3 or 4 years? Where are they?
Not quite that long. But now you have re-introduced other constraints to the timeline.
My inside info is that if Thorcon could ignore all regulatory requirements and supply chain issues – they could have the first one up and going within 6 – 8 months. As it is they are making steady progress, appointing a Certification Authority being an important and relatively mature milestone.
Comparing this to aliens arriving is frankly idiotic.
"Not quite that long. But now you have re-introduced other constraints to the timeline."
I have introduced nothing….these are unproven and there is no evidence they will perform as promoted….if these are to be any part of a solution they are rapidly running out of time to make an appearance.
there is simply not enough time to build the required plant even if all impediments are removed.
Well I demonstrated that this is not true – shipyard building can achieve the speed and scale needed – if all the impediments were removed. So then you effectively re-introduced the constraints that a real world developer like Thorcon have to work with by demanding to know why they have not delivered by now. Well if you cared to ask them as I have, it is meeting onerous, time consuming, sometimes capricious regulatory requirements and supply chain issues around accessing startup fuel that are the primary constraints they face.
(One of the most frustrating and perverse constraints is that the US DOE has a small stockpile of U-233 that would be an ideal startup fuel for thorium cycle based reactors – yet for reasons no-one can sanely explain hundreds of millions are being wasted downgrading it to uselessness. An entirely self-inflicted delay.)
The best time to have done nuclear would have been 60 years ago – today being the second best.
and there is no evidence they will perform as promoted
Thorcon is using a nucleonic design very similar to one already proven to work in the famous MSR-E in the 1960's. There is ample, rock solid evidence that it will perform as intended.
But we have been over this ground before. If you are going to cling to the the ‘it hasn’t been done therefore it cannot be done’ excuse – I have nothing more to add.
I do not dismiss what you propose because it has not been done before…i question why it has not been achieved to date.
Consider…there are at least 32 countries with access to the required material in a world crying out for energy. even if the US regulators have been nobbled, if you have a viable proposal to provided energy ( and all that flows from that) then somebody will have provided the wherewithal for this 'proven' method to be developed….the fact that nobody to date is evidence there are issues that are not readily apparent
Also the fact that someone like Michaux, with his obvious interaction with the energy sector, hasnt deemed it worthy of consideration is also indicative.
The best way to make a case is to demonstrate capability….if and when that happens it cannot be denied.
I have now read through Michaux's document that you linked to. I skimmed most of it looking for the Gen 4 analysis – and yes it is there. Actually it is better than I had hoped. He concludes that it would definitely be the best of the four main nuclear scenarios he considers. However he boxes himself in on five fronts:
He calculates almost 180 years of Gen 4 thorium cycle fuel supply, but then does not consider the eventual development of an efficient thorium breeder cycle – that would extend this life indefinitely. (He also only uses proven reserves of high grade thorium mineral resources that are currently mined, but if you allow for the economic extraction from lower grades – there is a vastly greater reserve available.)
He also then calculates an accumulating high level SNF waste pile that requires active energy to cool – that eventually becomes unmanageably large. Molten salt thorium reactors have the opportunity to perform a continuous fuel reprocessing using chemical methods – that avoid much of this problem. There is decades of development needed to bring this solution to production scale, but neither is it is a problem that needs solving immediately. This is a can we can safely kick down the road.
Same with the development of specialised fast-spectrum waste burner reactors that massively reduce the volume and half-life of the ultimate waste stream. Again we have decades to solve that problem before it is needed.
And in his calculations he explicitly assumes it takes 5 years to build each new plant, while I have shown it is entirely reasonable to build them far faster than this.
And finally I think he missed an important point that Gen 4 fission is likely to only be needed for a limited period, until we can solve the fusion problem at scale. And it only takes one key innovator to crack the puzzle. For instance this fusion startup is very impressive.
In essence we don't need Gen 4 fission to solve our energy problem for millennia into the future – we really only need it to bridge the gap for maybe 50 – 100 yrs until fusion becomes cheap and abundant. And that eliminates all of the constraints Michaux describes.
'IF 'fusion becomes available…but you miss his main point…even with a 5 year build time (not going to happen…we cant build one (average output) inside 10 years currently…we sure as hell arnt going to build 25 per annum on a 5 year time frame in the next 10-20 years)…we will not replace the energy lost from fossil fuels in the forseeable….and that means LESS output!
(not going to happen…we cant build one (average output) inside 10 years currently…we sure as hell arnt going to build 25 per annum on a 5 year time frame in the next 10-20 years)
Yes but that statement may well be true, but it is only useful if you understand why we are currently building them too slowly. The reason is not a physical constraint we cannot overcome – it is mostly a political one that is almost entirely within our control.
Hell back in the 70's and 80's there was no problem building reactors fast and cheap, and most of them are still running just fine today. And that was using Gen 2 designs that are far harder to build. The absurd 10 or more year builds that have been taking place since then have nothing to do with how long it takes to build them, and everything to do with a regulatory framework designed to prevent them from being built.
As I have said a few times before – the solutions are there, we are just choosing not to take them.
Key made his choice based on the circumstance in 2008 and the goal of NZF (then in coalition with an outgoing Labour admin) going under 5% was realised. This allowed his National and ACT or MP governing majority of the 2008-2017 era.
This time NZF is campaigning from an opposition to the current government, and Key's advice is to consider a National and ACT or NZF strategy. Puting NZF into the role played by the Maori Party in his time. That allows the opportunity for National to reduce the influence of both on government policy (given ACT and NZF have significant differences), an approach designed to gather as many centrist votes to National as possible.
Peters own strategy is to note those on the centre right who voted Labour to give them a majority without the Greens. He wants some of these voters to go with NZF to counter a NACT government further to the right than they would want.
I went to Winston’s rally when he came to my area. I have never gone to any political rally before. But I had time on my hands, and the person who wanted me to attend with them sucked me in by saying there would be ''finger food'' at the venue.
As per the link Winston started with the concept of freedom, mentioning both the ''baby blood saga'' and the many ''ordinary'' Kiwis he had met at the parliamentary protest who had lost jobs because of the vaccine mandate. He made a clear demarcation between ''crazies'' and ''ordinary'' protesters.
I couldn't help thinking Winston was missing the mark with the assembled audience. The audience was younger than I'd have expected. I was surprised at the Maori and young folk in attendance. Maybe they thought there would be ''finger food'' on tap too?
All in all, a flat lifeless presentation by Winston until… until the floor was opened for questions. Then the charismatic Winston came to the fore. One liners, quips, barbs for the media and political opponents. He became a different man. Watching the enigma that is Winston Peters was a fascinating experience.
Interesting. I had dinner one evening in 2001 at the Green Parrot with Winston holding court at a nearby table, and how entertaining was that! Whatever you might think of his politics, Peters is a remarkable politician and NZ Parliament would have been the poorer without him.
Winston First… he doesn't care about anything except his ego.
David Lange once described Winston Peters as the "only member of Parliament to have a concrete block named after him and I can understand that".
He also noted that Peters, not present to hear his valedictory speech to Parliament in 1996, "would have been with us today if he hadn't been detained by a full-length mirror".
There was no ''finger food.'' My naivety regarding political rallies was evident. Given there was about 200 people present, and Winston was passing the hat around, we would have considered ourselves luck if we saw a picture of finger food. I did however have one mini Mars Bar. A delightful old biddy sitting next to me smiled and said ''take one.'' ''One'' was emphasised. Obviously she sensed my low blood glucose, but at the same time my feral looks probably urged her to be cautious in case I snatched all three Mars bars in the packet.
Nobody here is making any mistakes regarding your political leanings. In fact, shortly (a week) after you started commenting on this forum under your current user name you made this declaration:
I decided to leave the the E out for brevity. [sic]
Your debating skills are poor and you don’t comment here in good faith. Unfortunately, this takes up a lot of bandwidth from other commenters and they’re wasting their precious time & effort on you, IMO. I knew this would happen as soon as I released you back onto the reserve – it is déjà vu all over again
To quote Mandy Rice Davies…'Well he would say that wouldn't he?'
Ian Powell used to have my attention. I regard him now as a perpetual nay sayer with no good ideas but plenty of criticism and this has been his modus operandi.
It has probably got to with the nature of the people he represented as Executive Officer. Many union commentators have a world or NZ view of politics that informs their work
We can argue the merits of mass vaccination, lockdowns and so on, quoting expert research and analysis until the cows come home. But the issues raised by Malloy are all solid management and political questions that are well within our wheelhouse to consider.
The Royal Commission NZ is holding into the COVID response is a promising sign that the system is prepared to consider learning from the experience. Arguably not everything we did was worth doing, and some things may well have had a higher cost than benefit.
The aviation industry learned decades ago the correct path to real safety; installing black boxes and cockpit voice recorders, and intensive 'no blame' investigations after every incident to properly uncover the root causes and the chain of events. It has proven to be a remarkably effective model.
Reads like anti-Labour polemic. Does the Govt get any credit for a world leading pandemic response, and saving thousands of lives. Nope. Zilch. Does Covid, or the failing DHB model get mentioned as a factor in the present difficulties? Nope.
The reforms were needed, there is never a perfect time to make these kinds of fundamental changes, but we could not carry on with whole regions getting hacked (Waikato DHB) and people having to shift around the country just to get a fscking appointment
“To cap off this leadership failure, the Government made the inexplicable political call to restructure the health system….in the midst of a health pandemic”
”It took this extraordinarily irresponsible political step in the full knowledge that public hospitals and general practices did not have the capacity to cope with the pandemic pressure”
So nothing in his article to say when would have been a good time, what would have been the arguments for and against and then caps it all off by saying health union leaders have not been commenting on the issue. Perhaps on balance union leaders believe that the restructure has more going for it than against it, in the long term.
Results for the Fiji election are due this afternoon- barring interestingly timed delays, such as happened on Wednesday night. Fijian immigrants to Aotearoa, that I have talked to; are a bit worried about what is happening back there. Yes, the head of the military has vowed not to interfere, but Rabuka was only a senior officer, not head of the military (though Bainimarama was), with the support of a couple dozen soldiers when they did their first coup. The provisional numbers seem to be set to give the combined opposition a majority (once subthreshold votes are excluded), if they can work together:
Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama's FijiFirst government is currently ahead in the tally with 42 per cent of the vote.
Sitiveni Rabuka's People's Alliance is sitting on 36 per cent, while the National Federation Party has just under nine per cent and the Social Democratic Liberal Party five.
The other five political parties are sitting under the five per cent threshold…
Rabuka – also a former coup leader turned prime minister – who has flagged a coalition with the National Federation Party.
The final decision on who to form government with could come down to Social Democratic Liberal Party leader Viliame Gavoka.
And the likelihood of opposition parties working to form a coalition government seem to have increased by alleged irregularities in this election. Rabuka was leader of SoDeLiPa in the 2018, and there is reportedly not much love lost between him and his successor (by intraparty coup), but they both seem more opposed to the present Prime Minister's government more – for now.
People’s Alliance and four other opposition parties on Friday launched a petition calling for an independent audit and a recount, after saying they had no confidence in the election process.
Rabuka was brought in for questioning by the police after questioning the election process. And other party's members are apparently under investigation. But maybe more important in the Fiji political culture is this:
Police also took in the head of the Methodist Church in Fiji and Rotuma, Reverend Ili Vunisuwai, for questioning at the Valelevu police station in Nasinu.
Vunisiwai had sent a letter on behalf of the Methodist Church to the Fiji president on Thursday expressing concern about the counting of the votes and inconsistencies in the electronic results management app and included the military commander and police chief in the communication.
It's nearly an hour since the final results should have been out, and still nothing in RNZ. Which is a bit concerning. This was from earlier:
As 6am local time of the Fiji Election Office results app showed 1994 out of 2071 polling stations or 96.3 percent had been counted.
The results by party have the ruling Fiji First Party in the lead with a 42.47 percent share of the votes counted so far.
The People's Alliance Party is in second place with 35.87 percent followed by the National Federation Party on 8.86 percent and the Social Democratic Liberal party precariously perched at 5.2 percent; just above the 5 percent threshold needed to get into parliament.
I don't know that I agree with the RNZ assessment. If SoDeLP do make it over the Threshold that is 92.5% total votes with 7.5% subthreshold. Which gives Fiji First roughly 46% to the combined opposition's 54%.
It would appear so; Sacha. However it is a very new constitution brought in by Bainimarama after a coup, with significant ammendments from the original proposal – in particular about declaring states of emergency, and leniency for military action against the government. There have only been two elections under this constitution so far (2014 & 2018) and neither have resulted in a coalition government.
Results are now 3 hours late. But if the results are accepted by those currently in power, then a coalition of the present opposition parties seems likely:
As it stands, the PAP-NFP coalition have a lead of 44.6% combined share of votes and have 26 projected seats in Fiji’s 52-member parliament.
A grand coalition could be formed with fourth-placed Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA), who have three projected seats from 5.1% of votes.
Zelensky and staff talked to The Economist about Russia, the war being on the edge, Ukrainian reluctance to compromise on territory, and prospects for the coming year.
In recent days The Economist has interviewed the three men at the crux of Ukraine’s war effort. One is Mr Zelensky. The second is General Valery Zaluzhny, who has served as the country’s top soldier for the past year and a half. The third is Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces, who masterminded the defence of Kyiv in the spring and Ukraine’s spectacular counter-offensive in Kharkiv province in September. All three men emphasised that the outcome of the war hinges on the next few months. They are convinced that Russia is readying another big offensive, to begin as soon as January. Whether Ukraine launches a pre-emptive strike of its own or waits to counter-attack, how it garners and distributes its forces, how much ammunition and equipment it amasses in the coming weeks and months—these looming decisions will determine their country’s future.
”Putin’s insecurity might start with anxiety about his personal future, but he has extended this into a vision for Russia that involves a permanent struggle with the West and its liberalism. There is little NATO can do about this vision except to ensure Russia’s defeat in Ukraine. “
You know The Daily Blog has completely lost it when they print a Tremain cartoon. They are usually only given the light of day in NACT meme groups and troll farms.
WTF is wrong with National MPs? Barbara Kuriger has been misusing her MP status to run interference for her son (he was prosecuted for animal mistreatment), and run a campaign of attacks against Fonterra and MPI
This was up yesterday about Kruger's emails and misuse of her position.. Yes a window on their world of entitlement… but Nania Mahuta gets pilloried by those Nats.
Over at DailyKos, Thom Hartmann chronicles 40 years of Reaganism and the unfolding destruction of the common wealth of the USA by the predatory 0.01%. It's a hard read. But in the middle of it is a shining reminder of a brief moment in history when pro-social values held the political high ground
Before Reagan, we’d passed the right to unionize, which built America’s first middle class. We passed unemployment insurance and workplace safety rules to protect workers. Social Security largely ended poverty among the elderly, and Medicare provided them with health security.
A top personal income tax rate between 74% and 91% throughout that period kept wages strong for working people and prevented the corrosive wealth inequality we see today. We didn’t get our first billionaire until after the Reagan revolution.
America built colleges that were free or affordable; gleaming new nonprofit hospitals; the world’s finest system of public schools; and new roads, bridges, rail, and airports from coast to coast.
We cleaned up the environment with the Environmental Protection Agency, cleaned up politics with the Federal Elections Commission, cleaned up corporate backroom deals with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We outlawed banks from gambling with our deposits via the Glass-Steagall law.
Sadly, we see even in New Zealand this is not the norm, but something workers and democracy-minded parties have to actively fight for. Because powerful moneyed interests prefer their exploitations and scams not to be subject to inconveniences like ethics or law.
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April 30 was going to be the day we’d be calling Mum from London to wish her a happy birthday. Then it became the day we would be going to St. Paul's at Evensong to remember her. The aim of the cathedral builders was to find a way to make their ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Can’t remember the last book by a Kiwi author you read? Think the NZ government should spend less on the arts in favor of helping the homeless? If so, as far as Newsroom is concerned, you probably deserve to be called a cultural ignoramus ...
Eric Crampton writes – Grudges are bad. Better to move on. But it can be fun to keep a couple of really trivial ones, so you’re not tempted to have other ones. For example, because of the rootkit fiasco of 2005, no Sony products in our household. ...
A new report warns an estimated third of the adult population have unmet need for health care.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāHere’s the six key things I learned about Aotaroa’s political economy this week around housing, climate and poverty:Politics - Three opinion polls confirmed support for PM Christopher Luxon ...
Today is May the fourth. Which was just a regular day when my mother took me to see the newly released Star Wars at the Odeon in Rotorua. The queue was right around the corner. Some years later this day became known as Star Wars Day, the date being a ...
Buzz from the Beehive Much more media attention is being paid to something Winston Peters said about former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr than to a speech he delivered to the New Zealand China Council. One word is missing from the speech: AUKUS. But AUKUS loomed large in his considerations ...
Is the economy in another long stagnation? If so, why?This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be ...
The annual list of who's been bribing our politicians is out, and journalists will no doubt be poring over it to find the juiciest and dirtiest bribes. The government's fast-track invite list is likely to be a particular focus, and we already know of one company on the list which ...
In the weeks after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Southern Israel I wrote about the possible 2nd, 3rd and even 4th order effects of the conflict. These included new fronts being opened in the West Bank (with Hamas), Golan … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – It is one of the oldest truisms that there is never a good time for MPs to get a pay rise. This week’s announcement of pay raises of around 2.8% backdated to last October could hardly have come at a worse time, with the ...
David Farrar writes – Newshub reports: Newshub can reveal a fresh allegation of intimidation against Green MP Julie-Anne Genter. Genter is subject to a disciplinary process for aggressively waving a book in the face of National Minister Matt Doocey in the House – but it’s not the first time ...
The Treasury has published a paper today on the global productivity slowdown and how it is playing out in New Zealand: The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections. The Treasury Paper examines recent trends in productivity and the potential drivers of the slowdown. Productivity for the whole economy ...
Winston Peters’ comments about former Australian foreign minister look set to be an ongoing headache for both him and Luxon. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guests on Gaza and ...
These puppet strings don't pull themselvesYou're thinking thoughts from someone elseHow much time do you think you have?Are you prepared for what comes next?The debating chamber can be a trying place for an opposition MP. What with the person in charge, the speaker, typically being an MP from the governing ...
The land around Lyme Regis, where Meryl Streep once stood, in a hood, on the Cobb, is falling into the sea.MerylThe land around Lyme Regis, around the Cobb that made it rich, has always been falling slowly but surely into the sea. Read more ...
Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters was bound to win headlines when he set out his thinking about AUKUS in his speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. The headlines became bigger when – during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report today – he criticised ...
The Post reports on how the government is refusing to release its advice on its corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law, instead using the "soon to be publicly available" refusal ground to hide it until after select committee submissions on the bill have closed. Fast-track Minister Chris Bishop's excuse? “It's not ...
As pressure on it grows, the livestock industry’s approach to the transition to Net Zero is increasingly being compared to that of fossil fuel interests. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above ...
The New Zealand Herald reports – Stats NZ has offered a voluntary redundancy scheme to all of its workers as a way to give staff some control over their “future” amidst widespread job losses in the public sector. In an update to staff this morning, seen by the Herald, Statistics New Zealand ...
On Werewolf/Scoop, I usually do two long form political columns a week. From now on, there will be an extra column each week about music and movies. But first, some late-breaking political events:The rise in unemployment numbers for the March quarter was bigger than expected – and especially sharp ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: TVNZ says it is dealing with about 50 formal complaints over its coverage of the latest 1News-Verian political poll, with some viewers – as well as the Prime Minister and a former senior Labour MP – critical of the tone of the 6pm report. ...
Muriel Newman writes – When Meridian Energy was seeking resource consents for a West Coast hydro dam proposal in 2010, local Maori “strenuously” objected, claiming their mana was inextricably linked to ‘their’ river and could be damaged. After receiving a financial payment from the company, however, the Ngai Tahu ...
Alwyn Poole writes – “An SEP,’ he said, ‘is something that we can’t see, or don’t see, or our brain doesn’t let us see, because we think that it’s somebody else’s problem. That’s what SEP means. Somebody Else’s Problem. The brain just edits it out, it’s like a ...
Our trust in our political institutions is fast eroding, according to a Maxim Institute discussion paper, Shaky Foundations: Why our democracy needs trust. The paper – released today – raises concerns about declining trust in New Zealand’s political institutions and democratic processes, and the role that the overuse of Parliamentary urgency ...
This article was prepared for publication yesterday. More ministerial announcements have been posted on the government’s official website since it was written. We will report on these later today …. Buzz from the BeehiveThere we were, thinking the environment is in trouble, when along came Jones. Shane Jones. ...
New Zealand now has the fourth most depressed construction sector in the world behind China, Qatar and Hong Kong. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 8:46am on Thursday, May 2:The Lead: ...
Hi,I am just going to state something very obvious: American police are fucking crazy.That was a photo gracing the New York Times this morning, showing New York City police “entering Columbia University last night after receiving a request from the school.”Apparently in America, protesting the deaths of tens of thousands ...
Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
This open-for-business, under-new-management cliché-pockmarked government of Christopher Luxon is not the thing of beauty he imagines it to be. It is not the powerful expression of the will of the people that he asserts it to be. It is not a soaring eagle, it is a malodorous vulture. This newest poll should make ...
The latest labour market statistics, showing a rise in unemployment. There are now 134,000 unemployed - 14,000 more than when the National government took office. Which is I guess what happens when the Reserve Bank causes a recession in an effort to Keep Wages Low. The previous government saw a ...
Three opinion polls have been released in the last two days, all showing that the new government is failing to hold their popular support. The usual honeymoon experienced during the first year of a first term government is entirely absent. The political mood is still gloomy and discontented, mainly due ...
National's Finance Minister once met a poor person.A scornful interview with National's finance guru who knows next to nothing about economics or people.There might have been something a bit familiar if that was the headline I’d gone with today. It would of course have been in tribute to the article ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over and over that he saved “lives and livelihoods”.As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ ...
Chris Trotter writes – IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in acknowledgement of electoral victory: “We’ll govern for all New Zealanders.” On the face of it, the pledge is a strange one. Why would any political leader govern in ways that advantaged the huge ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 10:06am on Wednesday, May 1:The Lead: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in ...
Over the past 36 hours, Christopher Luxon has been dong his best to portray the centre-right’s plummeting poll numbers as a mark of virtue. Allegedly, the negative verdicts are the result of hard economic times, and of a government bravely set out on a perilous rescue mission from which not ...
Auckland Transport have started rolling out new HOP card readers around the network and over the next three months, all of them on buses, at train stations and ferry wharves will be replaced. The change itself is not that remarkable, with the new readers looking similar to what is already ...
Completed reads for April: The Difference Engine, by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling Carnival of Saints, by George Herman The Snow Spider, by Jenny Nimmo Emlyn’s Moon, by Jenny Nimmo The Chestnut Soldier, by Jenny Nimmo Death Comes As the End, by Agatha Christie Lord of the Flies, by ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Have a story to share about St Paul’s, but today just picturesPopular novels written at this desk by a young man who managed to bootstrap himself out of father’s imprisonment and his own young life in a workhouse Read more ...
The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill English, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Roger Sowry, ...
Newsroom has a story today about National's (fortunately failed) effort to disestablish the newly-created Inspector-General of Defence. The creation of this agency was the key recommendation of the Inquiry into Operation Burnham, and a vital means of restoring credibility and social licence to an agency which had been caught lying ...
Holding On To The Present:The moment a political movement arises that attacks the whole idea of social progress, and announces its intention to wind back the hands of History’s clock, then democracy, along with its unwritten rules, is in mortal danger.IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in ...
Stuck In The Middle With You:As Christopher Luxon feels the hot breath of Act’s and NZ First’s extremists on the back of his neck and, as he reckons with the damage their policies are already inflicting upon a country he’s described as “fragile”, is there not some merit in reaching out ...
The unpopular coalition government is currently rushing to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. The clause is Oranga Tamariki's Treaty clause, and was inserted after its systematic stealing of Māori children became a public scandal and resulted in physical resistance to further abductions. The clause created clear obligations ...
Buzz from the Beehive The government’s official website – which Point of Order monitors daily – not for the first time has nothing much to say today about political happenings that are grabbing media headlines. It makes no mention of the latest 1News-Verian poll, for example. This shows National down ...
It Takes A Train To Cry:Surely, there is nothing lonelier in all this world than the long wail of a distant steam locomotive on a cold Winter’s night.AS A CHILD, I would lie awake in my grandfather’s house and listen to the traffic. The big wooden house was only a ...
Packing A Punch: The election of the present government, including in its ranks politicians dedicated to reasserting the rights of the legislature in shaping and determining the future of Māori and Pakeha in New Zealand, should have alerted the judiciary – including its anomalous appendage, the Waitangi Tribunal – that its ...
Dead Woman Walking: New Zealand’s media industry had been moving steadily towards disaster for all the years Melissa Lee had been National’s media and communications policy spokesperson, and yet, when the crisis finally broke, on her watch, she had nothing intelligent to offer. Christopher Luxon is a patient man - but he’s not ...
Chris Trotter writes – New Zealand politics is remarkably easy-going: dangerously so, one might even say. With the notable exception of John Key’s flat ruling-out of the NZ First Party in 2008, all parties capable of clearing MMP’s five-percent threshold, or winning one or more electorate seats, tend ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
The beloved local grocers lost a legal challenge to stop a new cycleway outside their store. Joel MacManus reports. In the annals of New Zealand legal history, there are a few brave people who have dared to stand up to the powers that be, no matter how bleak the odds ...
How what we produce and what we eat connects us to the world beyond our shores, visualised. Walking around a supermarket or vege shop, it might be obvious that everything on the shelves came from somewhere. But you might ...
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The following interview with auto electrician and former caver Stu Berendt, 68, of Charleston on the West Coast, came about because he was part of the caving team that found the rare and amazing fossil remains of the giant Haast eagle, the subject of one of the year’s best books, ...
A $1.8b funding boost for Pharmac still won’t enable it to buy more drugs, raising questions about the Government’s approach to the agency The post Can Pharmac do more with the same pot of money? appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Professor Jemma Geoghegan, of the University of Otago, Otakou Whakaihu Waka, co-leads a Te Niwha project aimed at understanding how and where avian influenza could affect Aotearoa New Zealand, as the highly infectious H5N1 virus spreads globally. The virus has now spread to all continents except Oceania and was recently ...
Thirty years on from Rwanda’s genocide, is guilt over the atrocities is blinding the world to the true nature of its current leadership? The post The repressive underside of Rwanda’s regime appeared first on Newsroom. ...
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Spend an hour (on a rainy day) informing yourself.
I am watching this and basically agree with the general thrust of what I am seeing – albeit with some quibbles. For instance at the 41 min mark he shows a key table that sums up total estimated metals requirement and then divides by 2019 production and arrives at some very long timeframes indeed.
Yet the production figures for just two of those metals – lithium and vanadium are already out of date. I was deeply involved last year in a project that increased battery grade lithium production from the 95,170 tonnes figure he quotes by another 48,000 tonnes. And next year I will be involved in doubling it again and the same again for the next four or five years to a total of almost 250,000 tonnes. And this is just one project globally. Nonetheless I agree I with his conclusion, there is not enough known lithium reserves globally to ever be the dominant battery chemistry.
As for vanadium – just last week I was speaking with the PM for a brand new Australian site that will increase production of this metal referenced 96,000 tonnes by another 20,000 tonnes. And this is a relatively modest site.
So I have first hand knowledge that at least some of his numbers are squishy. Yet that does not take away from the broad conclusion he reaches and one that I have been making for a while; that the proponents of SWB renewables are guilty of glossing over some of the innate constraints they face.
We have discussed alternatives to copper elsewhere – although again oddly enough this next year I will be spending about a third of my time consulting to a massive new copper concentrator.
My point is that the kind of projection Michaux is making here is not easy to get correct in the detail – but he can still be correct in the big picture.
As he qualifies, the numbers are broad based and conservative, and 2019 production figures are used for good reason.
In the grand scheme of things when you conservatively estimate over 7000 years of annual copper production (nevermind the reserves) required in the next 20 talk of solving these issues with recycling is a nonsense.
As he states near the end, as its impossible it will not occur.
OK so I have gotten through the entire thing – but only the lightest possible mention of nuclear. While he praises it's high performance he then airily dismisses it as 'taking too long' and recycles the old waste storage myth. And there is a brief mention in the Q&A of Gen 4 and thorium, but still no data.
On the whole however I fully agree with the broad thrust of his argument; that we have grossly underestimated the challenge of replacing just our current fossil fuel energy consumption, much less the future requirement necessary to support human development this century. Depending on the assumptions made, we will need somewhere between 3 to 8 times our current energy. Which is of course impossible with any projection of current technologies – except Gen 4 nuclear.
In my mind I keep returning to the Kaya Identity as a guide to this puzzle. It essentially tells us there are four levers we have to the carbon problem:
Of these four levers only one of them can be physically driven to zero – and that is the last term – Carbon Intensity. And there are only two technologies that can deliver on zero carbon:
Essentially Michaux clearly demonstrates that due to the diffuse and intermittent nature of solar and wind renewables the amount of material necessary to build them is impossibly large given current technologies. (On the basis of far less data and rigor I have been making the same argument here for ages.)
Nuclear by contrast is a highly dense and reliable energy source which is the primary reason it can deliver the energy needed within a sane resources budget. But to get there we have to throw away many of the out of date assumptions we have about it:
If we build factory build nuclear plants using the same methods we use for large ships, the time and costs will be better than for existing coal or gas.
If we build nuclear plants using anything but conventional PWR technology – they will be innately lower cost, far easier to operate, produce far less waste and make it reasonably possible to scale nuclear energy's already superb safety record to the numbers of reactors required. All this I have covered in detail elsewhere.
And the old chestnut of waste storage is an entirely solved problem.
The outstanding challenge is regulatory; all of which is based on a fraudulent LNT model of radiation harm that adds utterly unjustified costs, delays and uncertainty to any nuclear project. Which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that Michaux repeats, that nuclear is too expensive and slow.
And to repeat myself – I do not advocate that AU or NZ need to be pioneers in this; we have the enormous luxury of having an excellent solar and wind resource we can use to bridge for several decades or more until mass scale, low cost nuclear becomes mature. In the meantime – can we please quit with the nihilistic 'the end of the world is nigh' sackcloth rendering – that only serves to alarm and discourage people from believing in their children's future. Enough already.
He addresses nuclear with a little more depth in other podcasts….his two main issues with it are again the same, scale and time.
There is not enough of either.
Again – both are myths based on out of date projections. It is exactly like examining WW2 radio technology and insisting from this study that cell phones are impossible.
(Just for laughs – yes I have seen and operated a ZC1 many years ago – quite a remarkable beast for the era it was built in, but generations out of date now. PWR nuclear reactors were also first devised in the 1940’s.)
Michaux displays no antipathy to nuclear energy any more than he does to e.g. copper…. he has simply looked at whats required and determined that its not viable, even less so than renewables, which as you have agreed he has demonstrated.
As he stated all of these figures dont include the energy/materials for the likes of earth works or concrete….that is all additional.
Again based on demonstrably out of date assumptions that inevitably lead him to the wrong conclusion. As I said above – if all you knew was WW2 radio technology you would incorrectly project that cellphones were impossible. You know this would be a stupid rookie mistake, yet somehow well informed, intelligent people are happy to repeat it when it comes to confirming their biases around nuclear. An odd blind spot.
Note the bolded emphasis I made in my comment above – density and reliability are the fundamental engineering drivers that distinguish SWB renewables from nuclear. Get your head around this and everything else follows.
The problems are numerous and he is probably across the latest developments more so than you are….if you wish to critique his argument then listen to what he has to say on the issue.
He covers nuclear in more depth in his discussion with Nate Hagens (along with other articles)
I watched your first clip and responded in depth. That is way more respect for the argument than you routinely give me.
If you want me to invest another hours worth of my attention you will need to explain why. And perhaps put some effort into responding to my carefully constructed argument above.
Respect???
Do you want information or not? The link is there, listen or not, its up to you.
I have invested several thousand hours this past five years or so educating myself on nuclear energy and the issues. If I watch this video I predict that Michaux will make the following claims:
That there is not enough uranium to last more than a 100 years or so
That the thorium cycle although more abundant is more complex and less efficient and does not solve the problem.
That Gen 4 reactors are no different and merely make the problem bigger.
That the resulting waste pile is enormous and cannot be dealt with because the future is too uncertain.
Does that cover it off?
FYI Pat
https://twitter.com/CSPopoff/status/1602755588060246017?s=20&t=ZoocgdgsSaAPHJhDGdZGXQ
It covers some of the points…but misses the main constraint…there is simply not enough time to build the required plant even if all impediments are removed.
I have attached a link to his research which covers all the scenarios he investigated and add his recommendations here
The following recommendations are made:
• Nuclear power is used to service heavy industry operations and heating requirements directly.
• Expansion of the fleet should be planned to a little bit larger in scope than reference scenario to make resources last.
• It is also recommended to develop a robust back end SNF handling system. The proposed storage of SNF and MOX fuel manufacture in the Generation III+ simulation is ambitious. It is recomended that a more practical version of this plan is developed.
• It is recomended to resource the development of Generation IV and thorium nuclear power technology.
You may note from the original podcast that he models expanding existing nuclear generation alongside the renewable implementation.
https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/42_2021.pdf
OK so for the sake of argument let us remove the technical and regulatory constraints. And yes absolutely if we build reactors in the conventional fashion as massive onsite projects you and Michaux would be right – it would indeed take too long.
(Although I must add that having squandered 60 years of not doing nuclear properly, I have little sympathy for those who complain we have now run out of time. But I'll set that one aside too.)
But that is not how to do Gen 4 reactors. We already have all of the engineering capacity to deliver new reactors far faster than we could even with solar and wind. Here is how:
Or here:
Now I can understand Michaux not including this rapid build pathway because the data would be speculative. But to use this self-imposed limitation of his own study to claim that it cannot be done is not reasonable either.
@ Roblogic…it may be , especially if they can develop fusion. However that will require a functioning society if it is to occur and if the problems are not resolved PDQ there wont be such an environment.
I should add that I do not want to come across as overly critical of Michaux. My first comment still stands – there is a lot of solid work in what I have read so far. I am scanning that pdf now and agree with much of what he is saying.
In particular he underlines just how challenging it is to replace our current fossil energy systems – and explains why in an accessible manner.
But in tackling such an ambitious scope it is inevitable that he will also skate past important details and innovation in specialist areas like nuclear.
How long have you been advocating this plan Red?…3 or 4 years? Where are they?
He is right not to include speculative ideas…that is no basis for analysis….after all aliens may arrive tomorrow and present us with an instant energy solution but i wouldnt waste too much time or energy on planning for it
Not quite that long. But now you have re-introduced other constraints to the timeline.
My inside info is that if Thorcon could ignore all regulatory requirements and supply chain issues – they could have the first one up and going within 6 – 8 months. As it is they are making steady progress, appointing a Certification Authority being an important and relatively mature milestone.
Comparing this to aliens arriving is frankly idiotic.
"Not quite that long. But now you have re-introduced other constraints to the timeline."
I have introduced nothing….these are unproven and there is no evidence they will perform as promoted….if these are to be any part of a solution they are rapidly running out of time to make an appearance.
I was responding to your first condition:
Well I demonstrated that this is not true – shipyard building can achieve the speed and scale needed – if all the impediments were removed. So then you effectively re-introduced the constraints that a real world developer like Thorcon have to work with by demanding to know why they have not delivered by now. Well if you cared to ask them as I have, it is meeting onerous, time consuming, sometimes capricious regulatory requirements and supply chain issues around accessing startup fuel that are the primary constraints they face.
(One of the most frustrating and perverse constraints is that the US DOE has a small stockpile of U-233 that would be an ideal startup fuel for thorium cycle based reactors – yet for reasons no-one can sanely explain hundreds of millions are being wasted downgrading it to uselessness. An entirely self-inflicted delay.)
The best time to have done nuclear would have been 60 years ago – today being the second best.
Thorcon is using a nucleonic design very similar to one already proven to work in the famous MSR-E in the 1960's. There is ample, rock solid evidence that it will perform as intended.
But we have been over this ground before. If you are going to cling to the the ‘it hasn’t been done therefore it cannot be done’ excuse – I have nothing more to add.
You appear to misunderstand my position.
I do not dismiss what you propose because it has not been done before…i question why it has not been achieved to date.
Consider…there are at least 32 countries with access to the required material in a world crying out for energy. even if the US regulators have been nobbled, if you have a viable proposal to provided energy ( and all that flows from that) then somebody will have provided the wherewithal for this 'proven' method to be developed….the fact that nobody to date is evidence there are issues that are not readily apparent
Also the fact that someone like Michaux, with his obvious interaction with the energy sector, hasnt deemed it worthy of consideration is also indicative.
The best way to make a case is to demonstrate capability….if and when that happens it cannot be denied.
I have now read through Michaux's document that you linked to. I skimmed most of it looking for the Gen 4 analysis – and yes it is there. Actually it is better than I had hoped. He concludes that it would definitely be the best of the four main nuclear scenarios he considers. However he boxes himself in on five fronts:
In essence we don't need Gen 4 fission to solve our energy problem for millennia into the future – we really only need it to bridge the gap for maybe 50 – 100 yrs until fusion becomes cheap and abundant. And that eliminates all of the constraints Michaux describes.
'IF 'fusion becomes available…but you miss his main point…even with a 5 year build time (not going to happen…we cant build one (average output) inside 10 years currently…we sure as hell arnt going to build 25 per annum on a 5 year time frame in the next 10-20 years)…we will not replace the energy lost from fossil fuels in the forseeable….and that means LESS output!
A downward spiral.
Time…always time.
Yes but that statement may well be true, but it is only useful if you understand why we are currently building them too slowly. The reason is not a physical constraint we cannot overcome – it is mostly a political one that is almost entirely within our control.
Hell back in the 70's and 80's there was no problem building reactors fast and cheap, and most of them are still running just fine today. And that was using Gen 2 designs that are far harder to build. The absurd 10 or more year builds that have been taking place since then have nothing to do with how long it takes to build them, and everything to do with a regulatory framework designed to prevent them from being built.
As I have said a few times before – the solutions are there, we are just choosing not to take them.
Tom Lehrer has put all his songs online, including lyrics and sheet music, and given away all rights to them. (the site will be up for a short time).
https://tomlehrersongs.com/albums/the-remains-of-tom-lehrer-disc-3/
https://tomlehrersongs.com/
Interesting article by Andrea Vance this morning.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/300766847/will-christopher-luxon-write-the-final-act-of-winston-peters-career
”Does Christopher Luxon have the balls to write the final act of Winston Peters’ career?”
I suspect the answer is no.
Key made his choice based on the circumstance in 2008 and the goal of NZF (then in coalition with an outgoing Labour admin) going under 5% was realised. This allowed his National and ACT or MP governing majority of the 2008-2017 era.
This time NZF is campaigning from an opposition to the current government, and Key's advice is to consider a National and ACT or NZF strategy. Puting NZF into the role played by the Maori Party in his time. That allows the opportunity for National to reduce the influence of both on government policy (given ACT and NZF have significant differences), an approach designed to gather as many centrist votes to National as possible.
Peters own strategy is to note those on the centre right who voted Labour to give them a majority without the Greens. He wants some of these voters to go with NZF to counter a NACT government further to the right than they would want.
I went to Winston’s rally when he came to my area. I have never gone to any political rally before. But I had time on my hands, and the person who wanted me to attend with them sucked me in by saying there would be ''finger food'' at the venue.
As per the link Winston started with the concept of freedom, mentioning both the ''baby blood saga'' and the many ''ordinary'' Kiwis he had met at the parliamentary protest who had lost jobs because of the vaccine mandate. He made a clear demarcation between ''crazies'' and ''ordinary'' protesters.
I couldn't help thinking Winston was missing the mark with the assembled audience. The audience was younger than I'd have expected. I was surprised at the Maori and young folk in attendance. Maybe they thought there would be ''finger food'' on tap too?
All in all, a flat lifeless presentation by Winston until… until the floor was opened for questions. Then the charismatic Winston came to the fore. One liners, quips, barbs for the media and political opponents. He became a different man. Watching the enigma that is Winston Peters was a fascinating experience.
My guess is NZ1 will plop over the 5% line.
Interesting. I had dinner one evening in 2001 at the Green Parrot with Winston holding court at a nearby table, and how entertaining was that! Whatever you might think of his politics, Peters is a remarkable politician and NZ Parliament would have been the poorer without him.
I agree. I believe the Green Parrot was his favourite haunt, since closed?
Winston First… he doesn't care about anything except his ego.
David Lange once described Winston Peters as the "only member of Parliament to have a concrete block named after him and I can understand that".
He also noted that Peters, not present to hear his valedictory speech to Parliament in 1996, "would have been with us today if he hadn't been detained by a full-length mirror".
My guess is that NZ1 will plop.
But I still want to know about the finger food
What was it? and was there enough?
There was no ''finger food.'' My naivety regarding political rallies was evident. Given there was about 200 people present, and Winston was passing the hat around, we would have considered ourselves luck if we saw a picture of finger food. I did however have one mini Mars Bar. A delightful old biddy sitting next to me smiled and said ''take one.'' ''One'' was emphasised. Obviously she sensed my low blood glucose, but at the same time my feral looks probably urged her to be cautious in case I snatched all three Mars bars in the packet.
I have never been what you would consider a real socialist. I'm a swing voter as I have already stated. Hence X instead of EX.
''The letter "x" is often used in algebra to mean a value that is not yet known.''
Mickey Savage made the same mistake. The thing is I read he's a lawyer(?) You aren't. Fify.
''What happened to National’s policy machine?''
mickysavage…
16 November 2022 at 8:38 pm
''You can guarantee from his name that he was never ever a socialist.''
Nobody here is making any mistakes regarding your political leanings. In fact, shortly (a week) after you started commenting on this forum under your current user name you made this declaration:
Your debating skills are poor and you don’t comment here in good faith. Unfortunately, this takes up a lot of bandwidth from other commenters and they’re wasting their precious time & effort on you, IMO. I knew this would happen as soon as I released you back onto the reserve – it is déjà vu all over again
Current user name! Are we allowed to play a game of guess the old name?
Reminds me if a master baiter of a certain collour.
Leave it to the Mods, thanks. They know what they are doing.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/12/18/guest-blog-ian-powell-so-much-stuffed-up-by-so-few-reflecting-on-2022/
Ian Powell nails it
To quote Mandy Rice Davies…'Well he would say that wouldn't he?'
Ian Powell used to have my attention. I regard him now as a perpetual nay sayer with no good ideas but plenty of criticism and this has been his modus operandi.
It has probably got to with the nature of the people he represented as Executive Officer. Many union commentators have a world or NZ view of politics that informs their work
A very good article Anker.
We can argue the merits of mass vaccination, lockdowns and so on, quoting expert research and analysis until the cows come home. But the issues raised by Malloy are all solid management and political questions that are well within our wheelhouse to consider.
The Royal Commission NZ is holding into the COVID response is a promising sign that the system is prepared to consider learning from the experience. Arguably not everything we did was worth doing, and some things may well have had a higher cost than benefit.
The aviation industry learned decades ago the correct path to real safety; installing black boxes and cockpit voice recorders, and intensive 'no blame' investigations after every incident to properly uncover the root causes and the chain of events. It has proven to be a remarkably effective model.
Reads like anti-Labour polemic. Does the Govt get any credit for a world leading pandemic response, and saving thousands of lives. Nope. Zilch. Does Covid, or the failing DHB model get mentioned as a factor in the present difficulties? Nope.
The reforms were needed, there is never a perfect time to make these kinds of fundamental changes, but we could not carry on with whole regions getting hacked (Waikato DHB) and people having to shift around the country just to get a fscking appointment
Ran out of time to quote from the link above
ian Powells article on the health system
“To cap off this leadership failure, the Government made the inexplicable political call to restructure the health system….in the midst of a health pandemic”
”It took this extraordinarily irresponsible political step in the full knowledge that public hospitals and general practices did not have the capacity to cope with the pandemic pressure”
The quote illustrates my point beautifully.
So nothing in his article to say when would have been a good time, what would have been the arguments for and against and then caps it all off by saying health union leaders have not been commenting on the issue. Perhaps on balance union leaders believe that the restructure has more going for it than against it, in the long term.
Results for the Fiji election are due this afternoon- barring interestingly timed delays, such as happened on Wednesday night. Fijian immigrants to Aotearoa, that I have talked to; are a bit worried about what is happening back there. Yes, the head of the military has vowed not to interfere, but Rabuka was only a senior officer, not head of the military (though Bainimarama was), with the support of a couple dozen soldiers when they did their first coup. The provisional numbers seem to be set to give the combined opposition a majority (once subthreshold votes are excluded), if they can work together:
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8023801/fiji-election-to-come-down-to-the-wire/
And the likelihood of opposition parties working to form a coalition government seem to have increased by alleged irregularities in this election. Rabuka was leader of SoDeLiPa in the 2018, and there is reportedly not much love lost between him and his successor (by intraparty coup), but they both seem more opposed to the present Prime Minister's government more – for now.
https://www.euronews.com/2022/12/17/fiji-election
Rabuka was brought in for questioning by the police after questioning the election process. And other party's members are apparently under investigation. But maybe more important in the Fiji political culture is this:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/480927/rabuka-calls-for-calm-after-fiji-police-interrogation
I would say it's popcorn time this arvo, but the consequences are so dire if it goes pear-shaped that I doubt I will have much of an appetite.
It's nearly an hour since the final results should have been out, and still nothing in RNZ. Which is a bit concerning. This was from earlier:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/480976/by-the-numbers-2022-fiji-election-count-in-home-stretch
I don't know that I agree with the RNZ assessment. If SoDeLP do make it over the Threshold that is 92.5% total votes with 7.5% subthreshold. Which gives Fiji First roughly 46% to the combined opposition's 54%.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27Hondt_method
Does Fiji's constitution enable coalitions to form government if another single party has a higher individual vote?
It would appear so; Sacha. However it is a very new constitution brought in by Bainimarama after a coup, with significant ammendments from the original proposal – in particular about declaring states of emergency, and leniency for military action against the government. There have only been two elections under this constitution so far (2014 & 2018) and neither have resulted in a coalition government.
Results are now 3 hours late. But if the results are accepted by those currently in power, then a coalition of the present opposition parties seems likely:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/130798574/fiji-election-final-results-going-to-be-very-interesting-political-sociologist-dr-steven-ratuva-says
Though that seems to be Stuff (or possibly Ratuva) working from a previous election model, as the number of seats increased to 55 this year.
https://www.ifes.org/tools-resources/election-snapshots/elections-fiji-2022-general-election
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/101785528
Thank you. Cannot picture Bainimarama ceding power gracefully somehow.
Send in Winston 🙂
https://twitter.com/MichaelFieldNZ/status/1604306307837702144
Zelensky and staff talked to The Economist about Russia, the war being on the edge, Ukrainian reluctance to compromise on territory, and prospects for the coming year.
In recent days The Economist has interviewed the three men at the crux of Ukraine’s war effort. One is Mr Zelensky. The second is General Valery Zaluzhny, who has served as the country’s top soldier for the past year and a half. The third is Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of Ukraine’s ground forces, who masterminded the defence of Kyiv in the spring and Ukraine’s spectacular counter-offensive in Kharkiv province in September. All three men emphasised that the outcome of the war hinges on the next few months. They are convinced that Russia is readying another big offensive, to begin as soon as January. Whether Ukraine launches a pre-emptive strike of its own or waits to counter-attack, how it garners and distributes its forces, how much ammunition and equipment it amasses in the coming weeks and months—these looming decisions will determine their country’s future.
https://archive.vn/SC66C
Two different worlds
More interesting reading from Lawrence Freedman re Putin and security.
https://samf.substack.com/p/who-can-guarantee-russian-security?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0ODA3MDgsInBvc3RfaWQiOjkxMDYwNzg2LCJpYXQiOjE2NzEyNzAwNDQsImV4cCI6MTY3Mzg2MjA0NCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTYzMTQyMiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.VfUE-hnbgj6wStqIWVMhJnLog4z6-fPXbnfIELr8gTg&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
”Putin’s insecurity might start with anxiety about his personal future, but he has extended this into a vision for Russia that involves a permanent struggle with the West and its liberalism. There is little NATO can do about this vision except to ensure Russia’s defeat in Ukraine. “
You know The Daily Blog has completely lost it when they print a Tremain cartoon. They are usually only given the light of day in NACT meme groups and troll farms.
Did it have the word 'woke' in it..
WTF is wrong with National MPs? Barbara Kuriger has been misusing her MP status to run interference for her son (he was prosecuted for animal mistreatment), and run a campaign of attacks against Fonterra and MPI
MP's Emails Show Pattern Of Personal Attacks On Ministry | Newsroom
This was up yesterday about Kruger's emails and misuse of her position.. Yes a window on their world of entitlement… but Nania Mahuta gets pilloried by those Nats.
Yet another example of Luxon’s weakness. He has no control of his caucus.
Expect the Nats to run media rounds tomorrow with her either being removed or defended, depending on their internal polling about it.
Actually worth listening to – 6 mins of Garner just telling the truth about housing policy over the last decade or so.
https://twitter.com/rugbyintel/status/1565836962946097157
Only noticed after posting that it was from September. Has he done any similar pieces since?
Ouch.
https://twitter.com/Frank68332165/status/1604004153835114497
What did he think was going to happen?
https://twitter.com/mashable/status/1604178385701330944
Well, he can buy reddit next, and all the emails, dms and shit that come with it. Just like he did with twitter.
Doxing bad when its people we like, doxing good when its people we don't like.
It's called "abuse of power" when used to punch down on those who cannot fight back.
It's called "whistleblowing" or "accountability" or "journalism" when used against the powerful to reveal things they would prefer to remain hidden
Ahhh, so who is who in your scenario?
Billionaires are the enemy of freedom & democracy & human rights, so they should be uncomfortable when the truth about their vast crimes is revealed
Over at DailyKos, Thom Hartmann chronicles 40 years of Reaganism and the unfolding destruction of the common wealth of the USA by the predatory 0.01%. It's a hard read. But in the middle of it is a shining reminder of a brief moment in history when pro-social values held the political high ground
Sadly, we see even in New Zealand this is not the norm, but something workers and democracy-minded parties have to actively fight for. Because powerful moneyed interests prefer their exploitations and scams not to be subject to inconveniences like ethics or law.
Is he gonna do Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama next?