Polity: Chris Trotter – “gaseous exhalations”

Written By: - Date published: 11:37 am, February 20th, 2014 - 71 comments
Categories: Media, polls - Tags: , , , ,

Yesterday, Rob Salmond offered Chris Trotter a bet based on Chris writing an over-excited interpretation of an online poll. Who writes posts on the basis of online polls of less than 400 people? It is the same problem as interpreting small junk “markets” like iPredict which are rife with idiots of the right trying to push the odds away from reality with small amounts of cash. Really!

BTW: Can anyone get in on this bet? Sure things are the best bets.

Here’s Chris Trotter yesterday talking about the historical significance of a 382 person online poll on a blog site that suddenly – and for two days in a row – has shown the Greens forging 10% ahead of Labour:

Call it the wisdom of crowds. Announce that we’ve reached a tipping point. Put it down to a change in the zeitgeist. However 2014 is later explained by the political scientists, I want the readers of The Daily Blog – the canaries in a coal mine – to remember that they were the ones who succumbed to the gaseous exhalations of Labour’s political decomposition long before anybody else.

Well, if there is any gaseous exhalation in the vicinity of Chris’ blog post, it is… Chris’ entire blog post.

I’ll skip over the bits where Chris fails to understand how books like The Wisdom of Crowds or concepts like the zeitgeist relate to online polls (hint: they don’t).

I’ll even ignore the extended part where Chris decides to rely on Cameron Slater as a helpful source of information about the state of the Labour caucus.

Instead, I want to highlight this passage, and then offer Chris Trotter a bet. Here’s the passage:

Okay! I know, I know! There’s nothing in the least bit scientific about this sort of on-line poll. The 382 participants in the survey were all self-selected and the Daily Blog’s audience is a very long way from being representative of the wider New Zealand population.

But, don’t you see, that’s the whole point! If you exclude the National Party types getting to “know thy enemy”, the people who regularly read The Daily Blog, are overwhelmingly more Left than Centre. If Labour has shed 10 percentage points from the readership of this blog, its most sympathetic of audiences, how long can it be until the big, media-commissioned polls – Colmar Brunton, Reid Research, DigiPoll – all register a similar sudden collapse of Labour support among the general population?

My first point is that this is obviously over the top, lunatic analysis. But Chris seems to actually believe it. (Maybe I missed a very dry tongue-in-cheek here, but I don’t think so.) Chris thinks his online poll acts as a canary in the coal mine for Labour – by a method known in the outside world as “magical hand waving.”

Point two, I would like to offer Chris a bet. I think his analysis is completely silly, and I’ll back that up with $500. Perhaps Chris would like to back up his political analysis – being the Very Serious Commentator that he is – with some money of his own. I’ll even give Chris odds.

Chris Trotter, here is my proposition to you:

  1. You win the bet if any two individual polls in 2014 (from the list of outlets you mention) show Labour 10% or more below its current Polity Poll-of-Polls average of 33.1%. That would mirror your poll’s result. If that happens, I will pay you or your designated charity $500.
  2. I will also pay $500 if any two polls in 2014 (from the list of outlets you mention) show the Greens ahead of Labour, mirroring your online poll result.
  3. If neither of those events occurs, you pay my designated charity, @Heart, $250.
  4. To activate the bet, please send me an email or post your acceptance on The Daily Blog within 7 days of this post.

Coming back to reality, here’s what I think happened with The Daily Blog poll: A group of very politically active left-leaning people expressed their displeasure at Labour’s poor political performance this week by voting for other parties in an online poll they knew to be completely inconsequential.

Not nearly as exciting as Chris’ interpretation, of course. But more, you know, accurate.

A final note to Chris: If you wish to post about this issue and give it your own voice with your signature over-intellectualised language, please include Occam’s razor as a concept that supports my interpretation of your poll. For a change, this overblown phrase will actually be relevant to the paragraph it appears in.

71 comments on “Polity: Chris Trotter – “gaseous exhalations” ”

  1. Jenny 1

    What is undeniable is that on their current conservative trajectory Labour are headed for a defeat of epic proportions.

    Maybe the Left audience of the TDB are just reading the tea leaves.

    As a member of this bloc I will take your bet Rob.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 1.1

      Chris gets a vote of confidence from Jenny 😆

    • geoff 1.2

      You better hope you’re wrong, Jenny, otherwise it’s another 3 years of National. Is that what you want?

      • Jenny 1.2.1

        Don’t misunderstand me, I wish I was wrong. I would gladly pay $500 dollars to be proven wrong and be rid of these bastards.

        But what are we to think when Labour give away their two poverty mitigation policies, GST off Fresh Fruit and vegetables and no tax for the first $5,000 earned?
        These two “promised” tax cuts for the poor would have returned $1.5 billion to the most neediest. Labour has patronisingly replaced these broken promises with $525 million of “targeted assistance” because the poor can not be trusted to know how to spend their money.
        And we are all supposed to tug our forelocks in gratitude.

        (No word of reversing all the “actual” tax cuts for the wealthiest.)

        What are we to think when Labour sticks to the Right wing policy of raising the retirement age?
        We all know that older people vote in greater numbers than the rest of the population.

        What are we to think when Labour support deep sea oil drilling when a TV3 online poll showed 80% of the population are opposed?

        It looks to me that not only will Labour not win the election, but that they don’t want to win.

  2. Dan 2

    In his defence, Mr trotter is using a silly illustration to make a valid point – that there is reason to worry the Labour vote will collapse and there will be a repeat of 2011.

    That is about where the validity ends of course; the more important worry is not (and I expect to get more flames than the side of a 70s Camaro with this one) the Greens surging ahead at all – it is the failure to mobilise the big chunk of NZ who did not engage with the election at all last time.

    I personally think the Greens are great at getting their message across but they are not saying much that will energise anyone who isn’t already engaged with them and SINCE they are so great at messaging and have been since 2008, their vote will hold at 11%. But that is just my reckon.

    • Stephanie Rodgers 2.1

      I don’t think it’s the worst reckon in the world. What I’m concerned about is whether the election is going to end up revolving around sideshows like the Conservatives, or silly Kim Dotcom-related stories (as opposed to the serious KDC stories).

  3. SHG (not Colonial Viper) 3

    The past couple of weeks have been a clusterfuck for Labour. The only strong performer has been Shane Jones, and that simply reinforces how invisible the entire Labour front bench are right now.

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      Yes, Labour’s entire front bench is invisible! Shane Jones, 5th on the party list and member of the front bench, is the only strong performer, underlining how invisible the entire front bench is!

      🙄

    • One Anonymous Bloke 3.2

      You’re forgetting National’s last two weeks. Long after everyone has forgotten that they’d always known Cunliffe lives in Herne Bay, John Key will still be on the phone with Cameron Slater, swapping jokes about recently dead children.

    • Sosoo 3.3

      I don’t see what they could have done that would have made a difference.

      The people who matter in NZ have decided that Key gets another term, and they are mobilising their influence to make sure that comes to pass. The template seems to be to keep a constant state of ferment and anti-labour “scandal” going until the election along with adoring pieces on our blokish dear leader.

      What are you going to do about it? You don’t own a TV station or a newspaper, and you don’t have wealthy people paying you to spread manure and make trouble.

  4. anker 4

    great article, good challenge. I posted on the DB that I had tried to vote more than once at one stage on this poll and (rightly) was bumped off. So have stopped voting. I knew it was a monthly or weekly poll, I sure as hell would have voted. Others have voiced this too!

    I believe the Left have to get behind Cunliffe, Labour, Mana and Greens and do everything they can to win this election. At the moment, they are the best chance to beat Key.

    The msm are spinning for the right and we must not let this become the dominant narrative. Trotter has been sucked into in my opinion. Chris I usually like your articles, but this one is unhelpful and part of what could make a loss on the left a self fulfilling prophecy.

    • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 4.1

      +1 Anker

      I appreciated your and others’ comments that quickly appeared on TDB that were saying similar positive things. It was uplifting and a welcome relief from pessimistic and defeatist memes, that some on the left appear to be prone to.

      Seeing through right-wing spin/framing is not always easy – sometimes due to the volume of the crap we are being dished out – yet I consider it an effort well worth making because it is and always will be crap and swallowing such simply means we become full of crap too – and whose interests does that end up serving?

  5. Ennui 5

    Chris is on the ball: he is postulating that something serious “may” be happening based upon observation of what is a fairly “set” sample over time. What he has done is watch for signs on this poll, then applied his “shit radars” that are informed by observation. Body language, lack of collegiality etc, conflicting messages….all the things that we all understand without ever having to listen to the rhetoric etc. Good old “intuition”. And he is probably right.

    Labours MPs and their factions regardless of who they are need to take a hard look at themselves. If they were working for me as a project team, or a sales team I would be taking them aside and reading the riot act. Those who did not align would then get shot. Teams win, divided units are incredibly easy to beat.

  6. srylands 6

    “It is the same problem as interpreting small junk “markets” like iPredict which are rife with idiots of the right trying to push the odds away from reality with small amounts of cash.”

    I don’t hold any interest in ipredict, but looking at the current order book and daily turnover for “There will be a National PM after the Next Election”, there have been 80,500 trades since the start of trade in the stock. The order book has a large number of small buyers and sellers each day. Broadly, the price has fluctuated with the polls. When David Cunliffe became Labour leader, the price crashed as optimism in Labour soared.

    So do you have any evidence for your statement? Because the limited evidence more stronly favours the hypothesis that these traders are tring to make money rather than deliberately lose it for some political motive.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=PM.2014.NATIONAL

    • McFlock 6.1

      the limited evidence more stronly favours

      Everything you ever wanted to know about market interpretation and neolib economists right there: an acknowledgement of the paucity of evidence they have, immediately followed by a claim of strong indications in favour of their previously-held belief.

      • srylands 6.1.1

        The author made this statement with zero evidence:

        “markets” like iPredict which are rife with idiots of the right trying to push the odds away from reality with small amounts of cash”

        Based on the order book, “small amounts of cash” from a few idiots will not push the price away from reality.

        Believe what you want. If “PM Labour” becomes under priced, the punters will fill their boots. The “neoliberal” economists even more so! 🙂

        • wtl 6.1.1.1

          Bullshit. When you were trumpeting ipredict stocks the other day, MS pointed out that there was clear evidence that the stocks were being manipulated with a person having $1K to spare. You denied that was the case but the order book that I presented clearly confirmed what MS had said. You haven’t acknowledge your error in reading the order book (or deliberate misrepresentation) that day and still pretend that there was nothing suspicious going on.

          • srylands 6.1.1.1.1

            No he provided no such evidence. He made an allegation. So ,firstly, where is the evidence that one person bought 1,000 shares in one trade?

            Secondly, it wouldn’t matter much for the long term price if one such person traded 1,000 shares. The profit takers would love such a person, but with current trades around 200 per day, the price would return to the mean within 7 days.

            To emphasise, someone selling 1,000 PM Labour stocks would only deflate the price temporarily. Because rational buyers would rush in to take advantage of the bargain.

            You don’t seem to understand how ipredict stocks are priced. There is no vast right wing conspiracy to manipulate the price.

            • Tracey 6.1.1.1.1.1

              I agree. It’s just vast right wing gambling. Which mirrors how their leaders run the country.

            • mickysavage 6.1.1.1.1.2

              Um I have screenshots srylands. So are you saying that I was fibbing?

              Is that something you wing nuts do out of habit, accuse other people of lying when they say something that is inconvenient to your world view?

              • wtl

                He’s not just accusing you of making things up, he’s actually lying himself. He said “Why does the order book look totally different to your theory?” when the order book clearly supported your statement.

            • McFlock 6.1.1.1.1.3

              Blessed be the name of the market.

              “Rational buyers” placing bets on months or years-distant elections?
              There’s yet another logical cockup you’ve made.

            • wtl 6.1.1.1.1.4

              FFS. I posted the order book a few comments down, which I alluded to in my comment above. Here it is again:

              For the stock in question, here are the top sell orders for a Labour PM:

              920 $0.3800
              3 $0.3853
              10 $0.3854
              6 $0.3891
              1 $0.3915
              1 $0.3997
              1 $0.3998
              37 $0.3999
              102 $0.4000
              1 $0.4011

              And buy orders for a National PM:
              940 $0.6200
              3 $0.6147
              10 $0.6146
              5 $0.5988
              5 $0.5987
              1 $0.5830
              1 $0.5829
              1 $0.5828
              1 $0.5827
              10 $0.5826

              Clearly, someone is selling a huge volume of shares (1000) for significantly less than other traders for the Labour PM stock and buying a huge volume of shares for significantly more that others for the National PM stock.

              You also seem to have a bizarre sense of ‘it doesn’t matter’. By your own admission, this single trader is manipulating the price for 7 days, which is a significant amount of time. Also, this huge trade is of course going to have an effect on the ‘mean’ (I have no idea what you mean by ‘normal mean’). Plus, this is only one example, there is no telling how many other trades are being performed to do the exact same thing.

              Finally, I’ll add that $1K is peanuts compared to amounts spent on advertising. Who knows how many National party supporters (like yourself) are willing to spend that amount money to manipulate the price to push the meme that National is going to win?

            • bad12 6.1.1.1.1.5

              At least the clown SSLands has ceased for the moment ‘its’ absurd drivel claiming that the manipulation of the gamble on that particular site concerning who will be the Prime Minister after the 2014 election has any serious political application,

              Wing-nuts who continually promote such BS despite having been provided the proof that their assertions are nothing but BS deserve only our spittle or something more serious in the way of a spanking…

        • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 6.1.1.2

          Re Sryand’s “the traders are “… trying to make money rather than deliberately lose it for some political motive.

          They wouldn’t be ‘deliberately trying to lose money’ in the scenario that there is market manipulation going on in iPredict. I view shorting as a fairly well known practice in the ‘real’ markets and I doubt that that is because people lose money from deliberately lowering the price of companies’ shares – although the company and its loyal share holders on the receiving end of this practice often can.

          If Labour becomes ‘underpriced’ and the punters at iPredict have the idea that having this poll reading Labour as ‘more likely to lose than win’ has an effect on the way people vote (or don’t vote at all) I.e the effect of poll pushing ….and if those punters’ have vested interests in National winning (i.e. they stand to make more money under National because they will be allowed to externalise costs more than under a Labour/Greens government, including paying their staff shit wages) – then in these punters’ minds they are not losing money at all by shorting the Labour listing. It would be considered an investment by them – they are probably hoping to buy shares Kiwibank next term or perhaps they simply want to be assured that their tax haven ‘protecting’ their vast wealth stash from being taxed is secure (or is there a rule about being a New Zealander to be part of this iPredict market?).

        • Rob 6.1.1.3

          +1 Srylands

    • lprent 6.2

      I made that observation. It was based my looking at the trading in the year leading up to the last election on a number of trades and doing some basic experimentation based on making the market.

      I was looking at writing a post on it and possibly organising some concerted trading, but (as usual) ran out of time. What I was looking at was how far I could shift crucial trades by having multiple “people” and a smallish amount of cash. In particular I was interested in the lag effects. How long after a set of prolonged loss making decisions could I affect the odds. It proved to be doing a lot of small trades each day as “different” people.

      The order book has a large number of small buyers and sellers each day

      And that is the key – those are trades – not people. The “market” is small enough that a relatively small number of players acting in concert could easily manipulate the average trends reasonably cheaply. All they have to do is to be prepared to lose money.

      While they claim to have something like 8000 people on ipredict, I’d expect that if you analyzed in it closer detail that there are a very small number of people active in any given week. Once you drop the ones who stop trading within a month, it’d get even smaller – probably less than few hundred.

      Incidentally this isn’t uncommon. While we have something like 30 to 50k unique visitors here in any given month, only about half of these do more than one visit. Of those who do visit more often than that, they tend to visit a lot (> 100 times per month). But in any given month only 5-10% of unique visitors will comment. And unlike ipredict this site doesn’t require any money.

      Broadly, the price has fluctuated with the polls.When David Cunliffe became Labour leader, the price crashed as optimism in Labour soared.

      If there are flurries then they tend to get dampened out by people trading over the longer term. Quite simply the market is too small to be useful, and usually shows pretty obvious signs of manipulation by groups of players, and appears to be deliberately targeted only towards particular types of politics.

      With the exception of my excursion into it, of the significiant group of politically active here, the only people who appear to have put money (or credence) into it are Hooton and some of our definite right wingers. Whereas you can find significiant comment and weight given to it on local right wing sites.

      I view it as a device to extract money from the politically stupid.

      • Matthew Hooton 6.2.1

        How, then, do you explain this? http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1111/S00739/ipredict-accuracy-blitzes-traditional-polls.htm (and, yes, I wrote the press statement but it is based on basic maths).

        In 2011, if iPredict had a bias, it was slightly towards Labour and the Greens. I would back iPredict to accurately forecast an election result ahead of any poll. We’ll see what happens in 2014 of course.

        At the present time, iPredict is indicating a lower party vote for National than (I think) any of the polls: https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=VOTE.2014.NAT

        • McFlock 6.2.1.1

          To quote QoT the last time you crowed about your confirmation bias:

          The best thing about that spin, Matthew, is how we’re meant to think it’s “amazing” that iPredict was more accurate three months out than one month out for National’s party vote.

          This would be what we on Planet Earth refer to as “luck”.

        • weka 6.2.1.2

          Funny, my overriding memory of the pre-election time in 2011 was that the media had decided that National were a shoo-in. Thus many people either didn’t bother voting or voted NZF instead of Labour.

          How about an analysis of ipredict’s role in that?

        • Tracey 6.2.1.3

          when it comes to money, even the right will punt against the party they want?

        • ianmac 6.2.1.4

          Unsure how to interpret figures Matthew. Does .43 mean 43% in everyday terms?

        • lprent 6.2.1.5

          Read the topic. It was about a smallish self-selected poll about 8 months from what it was predicting.

          I was pretty specific in what I said. Any trade with enough people active in it tends towards more accuracy. But that it was possible to game trades with small numbers of actual people in it.

          For some strange reason in a political “market”, you tend to find three basic factors happen.

          1. More people get involved the closer it is towards an election.
          2. Some trades have more people involved than others.
          3. There are quite a lot of trades going on at any point in time (> 500!) which dilutes the number of people active in a lot of them.

          We’re currently well more than more than 6 months out from an election. It was about 6 months before the last election that I was playing around on it. What I was specifically looking at was if it was worth looking at it that far out. Like any self-selected poll with small numbers, it was obviously rather pointless.

        • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 6.2.1.6

          @ Matthew Hooton

          I always thought that iPredict’s accuracy of the last election was a bit overblown – it makes so much more sense now that I know you were writing the press releases.

          p.s You must know about George Soros’s theory of reflexivity – this would be applicable to iPredict’s high chances of being even more inaccurate this year.

  7. Jimbob 7

    I agree it’s most likely a short term reaction to labours mistakes. They have a tiny window left to jettison cunliffe or 2011 will indeed repeat. Basically he’s unlikeable and therefore unelectable. Will be great for the Greens, expect them to hit 14%.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 7.1

      Partisan hack demonstrates bias, allows it to cloud judgement, is foolish enough to make solid predictions based on wishful thinking 😆

    • Richard McGrath 7.2

      I think that’s a fair assessment, JB. I think the Greens will benefit at Labour’s cost, but the total left bloc percent support will remain in the low 40s. The election will a lot closer than today’s poll figures.

  8. McFlock 8

    I’d be intrigued as to whether TDB got in a new columnist, or hit on an issue dear to green voters, rather than just assuming a static readership.

    • Crunchtime 8.1

      I’ve been watching that poll for months – that’s how long it’s been up for, it keeps getting reposted. TDB readers have always (for as long as I’ve been looking anyway) favoured the Greens over Labour.

  9. karol 9

    Yes, McF. My tendency was to vote in the poll a while back. I assumed I could only vote once. There’s no indication on the poll as to how often one can/should vote.

    • Tiger Mountain 9.1

      Ditto karol, I clicked it once or twice more just to see if there was a “you’ve already voted” message. It should be fixed. Still, TDB has some good writers and why be too critical when it is done on the sniff of an empty coffee cup.

      All columnists have a strike rate to dud ratio, (Well apart from Public Address and Gio Tiso, theirs are spot on always), if Chris Trotter likes to chuck in Duke Ferdinand and a dodgy poll speculation that is fine by me in what can only be an opinion piece.

  10. bad12 10

    Lolz, there is nothing i would like more from the election than the Green Party emerging 10% ahead of the Labour Party,

    Only in the year 2099 could this happen, with a codicil of that’s in real life, in mine and Chris Trotters dreams tho it’s a goer…

  11. arandar 11

    I (mistakenly) read it originally as the Daily Blog daily poll. Then I decided it must be weekly and tried voting weekly to no avail or monthly and tried voting monthly with the same result. Each time I tried to vote (and I was mostly voting Labour) it wouldn’t accept my vote. Eventually I gave up.

    Q: Why leave up a non-functioning poll or why leave up for months and months on end a poll that must have become outdated and why not advise readers that the poll wasn’t active?

    Then I read Trotter’s column and went back to the poll yesterday. It accepted my vote for the first time in months. My subsequent comment on TDB was along the lines of ‘what’s the point of a poll on line for months but either very … selective or munted?’ and what’s the point of writing a column implying the damn thing is any sort of valid???

    Seriously, what IS the point of Trotter’s entire column when he cites this TDB ‘poll’ results & WO having insight into the Labour Caucus. Pffft!

  12. The Real Matthew 12

    The poll result merely reflects the sort of voter who is attracted to the website. If you publish far left views then you are going to attract a greater number of far left voters.

    For mine The Daily Blog is going downhill. I myself have been the victim of deleted comments and moderation without just cause. When you do that sort of stuff you are on a slippert slope.

    The Standard is the premiere source of left wing political debate as it actually allows those of us with alternate views to debate them!

  13. Tim 13

    Personally I think the current problem with Labour is twofold.

    One, the ABC club are still coming to terms with the membership and former supporters starting to take their party back from a bunch of careerists, and “I paid me dues, so I’m entitled” hacks; and

    Two, they still have not (and apparently will not) allow themselves to divorce themselves from the failed neo-liberal agenda.
    Until both those issues are resolved, they’ll muddle along, and quite possibly become irrelevant.

    Interestingly, there’s also another thing on TDB: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/02/20/standard-politician-vs-standard-voter/.
    Well beep-bop-aloolah, not me, not nohow! The party I, and whanau have supported for a very long time won’t get a vote until it becomes clear at least one of the above has been resolved (party OR electorate).
    If either occurs, they MIGHT get an electorate vote but not party until they’ve proven themselves as being genuine. Sure as hell, NOT before! And, as I’ve mentioned before – that goes fr about 23 others (either new voters, and past supporters who believe they’ve been taken for granted.

    Fuk ’em! Labour Get your shit together.

    • The Real Matthew 13.1

      Hard to imagine a party currently attracting the vote of one in every three New Zealanders becoming irrelevant anytime soon.

      As for the “neo-liberal agenda” (whatever that is) the economic policies adopted by New Zealand since ther mid 80’s have been of great benefit to this countries prosperity.

      • Tracey 13.1.1

        National once got to the low 20’s…

      • Jenny 13.1.2

        As for the “neo-liberal agenda” (whatever that is) the economic policies adopted by New Zealand since ther mid 80′s have been of great benefit to this countries prosperity.

        The Real Matthew

        LOL

      • Tim 13.1.3

        Irrelevant (as in irrelevant to their former supporters).
        I take your point however ‘real’ Mathew – but I’d simply suggest unless they do either or both, they should at least have the decency to change their name, and build on whatever the principles they now hold. Err… maybe the “2.2 kids and a mortgage Party”; or Muddle New Zill Party; or Anything But Cunliffe, but with Cunliffe Party.
        TO my mind – they sure as hell aren’t Labour. Maybe they could even just drop the ‘U’ and go with OZ

      • bad12 13.1.4

        The Real Mathew, that’s not quite true now is it, when you say of great benefit to this countries prosperity you must admit that such prosperity has not reached quite a large demographic of the working population,

        Must of course is a strongish word when used as an imperative, i should have qualified that with the words ”unless you are an outright liar”…

      • Stuart Munro 13.1.5

        Piffle.

      • phillip ure 13.1.6

        alliance at peak was in the 20’s…

        ..and you should look at how many parties have come and gone from the nz political landscape..

        ..and if labour continue to cling to their neo-lib recent past..as they seem to be doing..

        ..they could well follow those other parties out the exit door.

        ..and hilarious..!..yr claim that nz is ‘better off’ ‘cos of the neo-lib policies of the 80’s..

        ..don’t widely available stats on poverty etc. make an easily provable lie of yr words..?

        ..phillip ure..

    • Mary 13.2

      If the ABC club is slowly coming to terms with the membership and former supporters taking their party back, shouldn’t this also mean that the membership and former supporters are slowly moving towards divorcing Labour from the failed neo-liberal agenda? You’d like to think so, but it ain’t that simple. The problem is that not only is Labour riddled with in-house factional fighting, all of them together are still united in holding on to the failed neo-liberal agenda. Labour’s so stuffed that they’re hellbent on fighting amongst themselves even when, according to them, there’s nothing to fight about. That’s why we love Labour. They always know how to put up a good fight.

  14. xtasy 14

    Now, I am absolutely sure, that Chris Trotter did not just write his TDB post based on that narrow poll they conduct via their website. He will have ample anecdotal evidence to justify what his concerns are, about Labour and the possibility of a collapse of support for Labour. He is not an idiot after all, having many connections and a reasonable, accepted degree of intelligence, insight and reason.

    I think that Chris Trotter raises valid concerns, and that there are now increasing questions about Labour, being primarily the caucus, and about some (too many) there not supporting David Cunliffe and the new direction.

    We seem to have some in caucus look rather after their own interests and agendas, and forgetting why the members put Cunliffe in leadership. The competition between the main contenders for that role has also not stopped. We are dealing with a number of large EGOS there, and they are not working together to the degree that is necessary. We have long serving MPs in Labour’s caucus thinking they have “earned” their dues, that their time of service justifies certain presence and entitlements, and they fail to understand the wider issues and concerns their voters and potential voters may have.

    There are too many in the Labour caucus who are disconnected with society and the sentiments out there. That is highly dangerous, and while they may officially tow the line, their personal agendas are doing anything but support the chances of Labour.

    I also see that the initial positive support Labour got during and right after the new leadership challenge and determination is waning, is fading away, and that members feel that they are not taken seriously enough, and that many in caucus are not doing what they should.

    Hence the increased support for the Greens, which on the TDB poll is of course exaggerated, is real. We have had other polls, where Labour is dragging, is not up as we had hoped, and where the Greens are gaining again. Also is NZ First still relatively strong around the 5 percent marks. I think that Chris Trotter is sending a warning to Labour, to get their act together, as too many that would potentially and traditionally support Labour or “the left”, are having second thoughts again.

    We want true reforms and changes, not a bit of giveaway stuff for middle class members, here and there, we want to see a Labour Party that dares to take the country into a new and progressive direction, but what recent policy announcements have shown, it is just a bit of this, not enough.

    And as a damned, shat on “benficiary” in this country, I feel and see every damned day, that I and others are 3rd class persons here, Labour does not even talk about the social security policy area, apart from some “warm hearted slogans”. I have no place in Labour’s agenda, that is what they tell me, so my vote will go elsewhere, and I feel this is what is going on with many, many others. There are over 300,000 votes under “beneficiaries”, and they will make up a large portion of the 800,000 that did not vote last time!

    Cunliffe was given credit, a chance, he is being undermined not just by the MSM, but also his own colleagues, and he himself should also be more outspoken and open about what he stands for. We see sadly too much in the way of disappointments and disillusionment again, that is apart from little side show “scandals” about Shane Taurima, which does not help.

    Shane Jones seems to be doing well now, but I dare to think, that he is right in essence about his supermarket criticism, but he fails to accept that Foodstuffs may also have issues and questions to answer. Patriotism may be great in some ways, but it can end up being a trap, where you lose credit if you just focus on one “foreign” player.

    Better wake up and come to address all this, dear Labour, or you will possibly face the fate that Chris Trotter does not rule out.

    • Mary 14.1

      We’ve reached a point now where the only thing that we can do to try to make Labour see what they’re doing is wrong is through sarcasm and derision. Labour deserves nothing less, in the same way we all deserve another three years of Keys and his mates giving us all a jolly good hiding because we’re all too stupid to do anything about him.

      Sarcasm and derision I think is what Chris Trotter is doing for the reasons I’ve said.

  15. swordfish 15

    I don’t agree with Trotter that Labour’s vote will collapse in 2014.

    However, I do have to say that, going through the 2011 booth-by-booth results for New Zealand’s Metropolitan and Provincial cities a year or two back, I got a quite intense feeling of deja vu.

    At University, I extensively analysed urban booth-by-booth results in elections between 1919 and 1938. The key dynamic during this period was the fledgling Labour Party’s slow (two steps forward, one step back) but sure eclipse of the Liberals as the party of progress in urban New Zealand.

    Labour’s decline and the Greens’ advance in so many urban booths in 2011 reminded me very much of that inter-war dynamic. And given the Greens’ particular strength among the under 35s, you have to wonder whether there’s some inevitability about the Greens, if not electorally eclipsing Labour, then at least coming ever closer.

    I could imagine, for instance, a 2017 election where Labour are on 28% and the Greens 20%.

    • Tracey 15.1

      Cant disagree.

      As long as those in the labour caucus are focused on their third way agenda ( renamed my way) instead of pulling behind their leader they doom the party.

  16. captain hook 16

    Chris is renowned for working both sides of the street.
    Sitting on the fence means that you stand for nothing.
    As for the other scaremongers they are shit scared that National will go down the dunny this election and they are the ones heading for a defeat of massive proportions.
    National has aligned itself with the crude and the indefensible and are about to pay the price.

  17. dave 17

    iam voting labour and cunliffe all the way f main stream media i refuse to watch it as far as go radical policy’s watch this space neo liberalism is screwed hoot-on slater and the rest of the nacts can go to hell

  18. middxkea 18

    I would take 20 Green Mp’s and being in opposition over 15 Green Mp’s and being in Government with the current Labour Team.
    or to put in another way

    9 out of the next 12 years with a strong progressive Government would be better then a one term Labour/Green Government

    After being at my third Green party Cadidate list ranking weekend, I can predict that the Green party will become the main party of progressive though in the coming years.
    The quality of candidates was absolutely outstanding. The party is strong , united and has a clear vision for the future.
    It is very hard after spending a few days with this inspiring visionary hardworking team, to arrive home to news of another couple of Labour clusterfucks.

    I would encourage many of you that have not already given up the current Labour Party to come over to the Green Party where the truly progressive changes are going to happen.

  19. Mr Tank 19

    Ha ha! That’s good Rob. I particularly liked “over-intellectualised language” and Very Serious Commentator – Zing!

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • The Book of Henry
    Now in the land of Angus beef and the mighty ABsWhere the steaks were juicy and the rivers did run foulIt would often be said,This meal is terrible,andNo, for real this is legit the worst thing I've ever eatenBut this was an thing said only to others at the table,not ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    48 mins ago
  • Fact Brief – Is ocean acidification from human activities enough to impact marine ecosystems?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from the Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is ocean acidification from human ...
    14 hours ago
  • Happiness is a Warm Gun
    She's not a girl who misses muchDo do do do do do, oh yeahShe's well-acquainted with the touch of the velvet handLike a lizard on a window paneI wouldn’t associate ACT with warmth, other than a certain fabled, notoriously hot, destination where surely they’re heading and many would like them ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    20 hours ago
  • Still doing a good 20
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past somewhat interrupted week. Still on the move!Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 day ago
  • Coalition of the Unwilling?
    What does Budget 2024 tell us about the current government? Muddle on?Coalition governments are not new. About 50 percent of the time since the first MMP election, there has been a minority government, usually with allied parties holding ministerial portfolios outside cabinets. For 10 percent of the time there was ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    2 days ago
  • Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
    Somewhat surprisingly for what is regarded as a network of professionals, climate science misinformation is getting shared on LinkedIn, joining other channels where this is happening. Several of our recent posts published on LinkedIn have attracted the ire of various commenters who apparently are in denial about human-caused climate change. Based ...
    2 days ago
  • All good, still
    1. On what subject is Paul Henry even remotely worth giving the time of day?a. The state of our nationb. The state of the ACT partyc. How to freak out potential buyers of your gin palace by baking the remains of your deceased parent into its fittings2. Now that New ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The looting is the point
    Last time National was in power, they looted the state, privatising public assets and signing hugely wasteful public-private partnership (PPP) contracts which saw foreign consortiums provide substandard infrastructure while gouging us for profits. You only have to look at the ongoing fiasco of Transmission Gully to see how it was ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • The Illusion of Power: How Local Government Bureaucrats Overawe Democratically-Elected Councillors..
    The Democratic Façade Of Local Government: Our district and city councillors are democratically elected to govern their communities on one very strict condition – that they never, ever, under any circumstances, attempt to do so.A DISINTEGRATION OF LOYALTIES on the Wellington City Council has left Mayor Tory Whanau without a ...
    2 days ago
  • Lowlights & Bright Spots
    I can feel the lowlights coming over meI can feel the lowlights, from the state I’m inI can see the light now even thought it’s dimA little glow on the horizonAnother week of lowlights from our government, with the odd bright spot and a glow on the horizon. The light ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 14-June-2024
    Another week, another roundup of things that caught our eye on our favourite topics of transport, housing and how to make cities a little bit greater. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday, Connor wrote about Kāinga Ora’s role as an urban development agency Tuesday’s guest post by ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    2 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to June 14
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s moves this week to take farming out of the ETS and encourage more mining and oil and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Climate policy axed in broad daylight, while taxpayer liabilities grow in the dark
    In 2019, Shane Jones addressed the “50 Shades of Green” protest at Parliament: Now he is part of a government giving those farmers a pass on becoming part of the ETS, as well as threatening to lock in offshore oil exploration and mining for decades. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Rage Bait!
    Hi,Today’s newsletter is all about how easy it is to get sucked into “rage bait” online, and how easy it is to get played.But first I wanted to share something that elicited the exact opposite of rage in me — something that made me feel incredibly proud, whilst also making ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Friday, June 14
    Seymour said lower speed limits “drained the joy from life as people were forced to follow rules they knew made no sense.” File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, June 14 were:The National/ACT/NZ First ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Friendly but frank talks with China Premier
    It sounded like the best word to describe yesterday’s talks between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and his heavyweight delegation of Ministers and officials and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and New Zealand Ministers and officials was “frank.” But it was the kind of frankness that friends can indulge in. It ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2024
    Open access notables Wildfire smoke impacts lake ecosystems, Farruggia et al., Global Change Biology: We introduce the concept of the lake smoke-day, or the number of days any given lake is exposed to smoke in any given fire season, and quantify the total lake smoke-day exposure in North America from 2019 ...
    3 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: China’s message to New Zealand – don’t put it all at risk
    Don’t put it all at risk. That’s likely to be the take-home message for New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in his meetings with Li Qiang, the Chinese Premier. Li’s visit to Wellington this week is the highest-ranking visit by a Chinese official since 2017. The trip down under – ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    3 days ago
  • The Real Thing
    I know the feelingIt is the real thingThe essence of the soulThe perfect momentThat golden momentI know you feel it tooI know the feelingIt is the real thingYou can't refuse the embraceNo?Sometimes we face the things we most dislike. A phobia or fear that must be confronted so it doesn’t ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how moderates empower the political right
    Struth, what a week. Having made sure the rural sector won’t have to pay any time soon for its pollution, PM Christopher Luxon yesterday chose Fieldays 2024 to launch a parliamentary inquiry into rural banking services, to see how the banks have been treating farmers faced with high interest rates. ...
    3 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Thursday, June 13
    In April, 17,656 people left Aotearoa-NZ to live overseas, averaging 588 a day, with just over half of those likely to have gone to Australia. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, June 13 ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Our guide to having your say on the draft RLTP 2024
    Auckland’s draft Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP) 2024 is open for feedback – and you only have until Monday 17 June to submit. Do it! Join the thousands of Aucklanders who are speaking up for wise strategic investment that will dig us out of traffic and give us easy and ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    3 days ago
  • The China puzzle
    Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in Wellington today for a three-day visit to the country. The visit will take place amid uncertainty about the future of the New Zealand-China relationship. Li hosted a formal welcome and then lunch for then-Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in Beijing a year ago. The pair ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • Fossil fuels are shredding our democracy
    This is a re-post of an article from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler published on June 3, 2024. I have an oped in the New York Times (gift link) about this. For a long time, a common refrain about the energy transition was that renewable energy needed to become ...
    3 days ago
  • Life at 20 kilometres an hour
    We are still in France, getting from A to B.Possibly for only another week, though; Switzerland and Germany are looming now. On we pedal, towards Budapest, at about 20 km per hour.What are are mostly doing is inhaling a country, loving its ways and its food. Rolling, talking, quietly thinking. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Hipkins is still useless
    The big problem with the last Labour government was that they were chickenshits who did nothing with the absolute majority we had given them. They governed as if they were scared of their own shadows, afraid of making decisions lest it upset someone - usually someone who would never have ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Exercising with the IDF.
    This morning I did something I seldom do, I looked at the Twitter newsfeed. Normally I take the approach of something that I’m not sure is an American urban legend, or genuinely something kids do over there. The infamous bag of dog poo on the front porch, set it on ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Helm Hammerhand Anime: First Pictures and an Old English ‘Hera’
    We have some news on the upcoming War of the Rohirrim anime. It will apparently be two and a half hours in length, with Peter Jackson as Executive Producer, and Helm’s daughter Hera will be the main character. Also, pictures: The bloke in the middle picture is Freca’s ...
    4 days ago
  • Farmers get free pass on climate AND get subsidies
    The cows will keep burping and farting and climate change will keep accelerating - but farmers can stop worrying about being included in the ETS. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, June 12 were:The ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Six ideas to secure Te Huia’s Future
    This is a guest post by our friend Darren Davis. It originally appeared on his excellent blog, Adventures in Transitland, which features “musings about public transport and other cool stuff in Aotearoa/ New Zealand and around the globe.” With Te Huia now having funding secure through to 2026, now is ...
    Greater AucklandBy Darren Davis
    4 days ago
  • The methane waka sinks
    In some ways, there may be less than meets the eye to the Government announcement yesterday that the He Waka Eke Noa proposal for farmers to pay for greenhouse gas emissions has been scrapped. The spectre of farmers still having to pay at some point in the future remains. That, ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • At a glance – Does positive feedback necessarily mean runaway warming?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: Farmers get what they wanted – for now
    Since entering office, National has unravelled practically every climate policy, leaving us with no effective way of reducing emissions or meeting our emissions budgets beyond magical thinking around the ETS. And today they've announced another step: removing agriculture entirely. At present, following the complete failure of he waka eka noa, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Presumed Innocent?
    The blue billionaireDistraction no interactionOr movement outside these glazed over eyesThe new great divideFew fight the tide to be glorifiedBut will he be satisfied?Can we accept this without zoom?The elephant in the roomNot much happens in politics on a Monday. Bugger all in fact. Although yesterday Christopher Luxon found he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on our doomed love affair with oil and gas
    What if New Zealand threw a fossil fuel party, and nobody came? On the weekend, Resources Minister Shane Jones sent out the invitations and strung up the balloons, but will anyone really want to invest big time in resuming oil and gas exploration in our corner of the planet? Yes, ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Building better housing insights
    This is a guest post by Meredith Dale, senior urban designer and strategist at The Urban Advisory. There’s a saying that goes something like: ‘what you measure is what you value’. An RNZ article last week claimed that Auckland was ‘hurting’ because of a more affordable supply of homes, particularly townhouses ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • Putin would be proud of them
    A Prime Minister directs his public service to inquire into the actions of the opposition political party which is his harshest critic. Something from Orban's Hungary, or Putin's Russia? No, its happening right here in Aotearoa: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Public Service Commission will launch an ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Resources for debunking common solar and wind myths
    This is a repost from a Yale Climate Connections article by SueEllen Campbell published on June 3, 2024. The articles listed can help you tell fact from fiction when it comes to solar and wind energy. Some statements you hear about solar and wind energy are just plain false. ...
    6 days ago
  • Juggernaut
    Politics were going on all around us yesterday, and we barely noticed, rolling along canal paths, eating baguettes. It wasn’t until my mate got to the headlines last night that we learned there had been a dismayingly strong far right result in the EU elections and Macron had called a ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Numbers Game.
    Respect Existence, Or Expect Resistance? There may well have been 50,000 pairs of feet “Marching For Nature” down Auckland’s Queen Street on Saturday afternoon, but the figure that impresses the Coalition Government is the 1,450,000 pairs of Auckland feet that were somewhere else.IN THE ERA OF DRONES and Artificial Intelligence, ...
    6 days ago
  • Media Link: AVFA on post-colonial blowback.
    Selwyn Manning and I discuss varieties of post colonial blowback and the implications its has for the rise of the Global South. Counties discussed include Palestine/Israel, France/New Caledonia, England/India, apartheid/post-apartheid South Africa and post-colonial New Zealand. It is a bit … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Policy by panic
    Back in March, Ombudsman Peter Boshier resigned when he hit the statutory retirement age of 72, leaving the country in the awkward (and legally questionable) position of having him continue as a temporay appointee. It apparently took the entire political system by surprise - as evinced by Labour's dick move ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • PSA: NZ's Richest Company, Zuru, Sucks
    Hi,Today the New Zealand press is breathlessly reporting that the owners of toy company Zuru are officially New Zealand’s wealthiest people: Mat and Nick Mowbray worth an estimated $20 billion between them.While the New Zealand press loses its shit celebrating this Kiwi success story, this is a Webworm reminder that ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Bernard's Dawn Chorus and pick 'n' mix for Monday, June 10
    TL;DR: The six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty in the past day to 8:36 pm on Monday, June 10 were:20,000 protested against the Fast-track approval bill on Saturday in Auckland, but PM Christopher Luxon says ‘sorry, but not sorry’ about the need for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • In Defence of Kāinga Ora
    Given the headlines around the recent findings of the ‘independent’ review of Kāinga Ora by Bill English, you might assume this post will be about social housing, Kāinga Ora’s most prominent role. While that is indeed something that requires defending, I want to talk about the other core purpose of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    6 days ago
  • Baby You're A Rich Man
    “How does it feel to beOne of the beautiful peopleNow that you know who you areWhat do you want to beAnd have you traveled very far?Far as the eye can see”Yesterday the ACT party faithful were regaled with craven boasts, sneers, and demands for even more at their annual rally.That ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Stopping a future Labour government from shutting down gas exploration
    A defiant Resources Minister Shane Jones has responded to Saturday’s environmental protests by ending Labour’s offshore oil exploration ban and calling for long-term contracts with any successful explorers. The purpose would be to prevent a future Labour Government from reversing any licence the explorers might hold. Jones sees a precedent ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #23
    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 2, 2024 thru Sat, June 8, 2024. Story of the week Our Story of the Week is Yale Climate Connection's Resources for debunking common solar and wind myths, by ...
    7 days ago
  • Fission by the river
    This is where we ate our lunch last Wednesday. Never mind your châteaux and castles and whatnot, we like to enjoy a baguette in the shadow of a nuclear power plant; a station that puts out more than twice as much as Manapouri using nothing more than tiny atoms to bring ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Fact Brief – Is the ocean acidifying?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by John Mason in collaboration with members from the Gigafact team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is the ocean acidifying? Acidification of oceans ...
    1 week ago
  • 20,000+ on Queen St.
    The largest protest I ever went on was in the mid 90s. There were 10,000 people there that day, and I’ve never forgotten it. An enormous mass of people, chanting together. Stretching block after block, bringing traffic to a halt.But I can’t say that’s the biggest protest I’ve ever been ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Josh Drummond's Columns
    Hi there,I wanted to put all of Josh Drummond’s Webworm pieces all in one place. I love that he writes for Webworm — and all of these are a good read!David.Why Are So Many “Christians” Hellbent on Being Horrible?Why do so many objectively hideous people declare themselves “Christian”?Meeting the Master ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday soliloquy and weekend Pick ‘n’ Mix for June 8/9
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: On reflection, the six things to note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty this week were:The Government-driven freeze in building new classrooms, local roads and water networks in order to save cash for tax cuts is frustrating communities facing massive population ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The no-vision thing
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past somewhat interrupted week. Still on the move!Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • When Journalists are Disingenuous
    Hi,One of the things I like the most about Webworm is to be able to break down the media and journalism a little, and go behind the scenes.This is one of those times.Yesterday an email arrived in my inbox from journalist Jonathan Milne, who is managing editor at Newsroom.I don’t ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Me, elsewhere: Just say you’ll do the thing
    Wrote something over at 1/200 on a familiar theme of mine: The way we frame the economy as a separate, sacred force which must be sacrificed to, the way we talk about criminals as invaders who must be repelled, the constant othering of people on the benefit, people not in ...
    Boots TheoryBy Stephanie Rodgers
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted
    A nice bit of news today: my 4600-word historical fantasy-horror piece, A Voyage Among the Vandals, has been accepted by Phobica Books (https://www.phobicabooks.co.uk/books) for their upcoming Pirate Horror anthology, Shivering Timbers. This one is set in the Mediterranean, during the mid-fifth century AD. Notable for having one of history’s designated ...
    1 week ago
  • Ministerial conflicts of interest
    Since the National government came to power, it has been surrounded by allegations of conflicts of interest. Firstly, there's the fast-track law, which concentrates power in the hands of three Ministers, some of whom have received donations from companies whose projects they will be deciding on. Secondly, there's the close ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The 2024 Budget Forecasts Are Gloomy Prognosis About The Next Three Years.
    There was no less razzamatazz about the 2024 Budget than about earlier ones. Once again the underlying economic analysis got lost. It deserves more attention.Just to remind you, the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU), is the Treasury’s independent assessment and so can be analysed by other competent economists (although ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A government that can't see twenty feet ahead
    There are two failings that consistently characterise a National government. One is a lack of imagination, the other is their willingness to look after their mates, no matter what harm it might do to everyone else.This is how we come to have thousands of enormous trucks carving up our roads. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • A post I hope is incorrect
    In May, we learned that National MP David MacLeod had "forgotten" to declare $178,000 in electoral donations. Filing a donation return which is false in any material particular is a crime, and the Electoral Commission has now referred MacLeod to police, since they're the only people who are allowed to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Māori Cannot Re-Write New Zealand’s Constitution By Stealth.
    The Kotahitanga Parliament 1897: A Māori Parliament – at least in the guise of a large and representative body dedicated to describing the shape of New Zealand’s future from a Māori perspective – would be a very good idea.THE DEMAND for a “Māori Parliament” needs to be carefully unpicked. Some Pakeha, ...
    1 week ago
  • Cowpats and Colonials.
    Dumbtown, is how my friend Gerard refers to people like ZB listeners - he’s not wrong.Normally on a Friday I start by looking at Mike Hosking’s moronic reckons of the week which he vomits down the throats of his audience like helpless baby birds in a nest, grateful for the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on cutting the sick leave of vulnerable workers
    Should sick leave be part and parcel of the working conditions from Day One on the job, just like every other health and safety provision? Or should access to sick leave be something that only gradually accumulates, depending on how long a worker has been on the payroll? If enacted ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    1 week ago
  • Nobody Move: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    So long as we live in a democracy, economic policy can never be anything other than social-democratic.“HEH!”, snorted Laurie, as he waved his debit card over the EFTPOS machine. “Same price as last week. I guess budgets aren’t what they used to be.”“I wouldn’t know,” replied the young barman, wearily, ...
    1 week ago
  • In Search Of Unity.
    Kotahitanga: New Zealand’s future belongs to those who do not fear a nation carved out of unity and solidarity, and are willing to trust the carvers. Some New Zealanders will be required to step up, and others, perhaps for the first time in their lives, will be expected to step ...
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 7-June-2024
    Welcome to another Friday roundup! Here are some recent links and stories that caught our eye, perfectly timed for your watercooler discussions and weekend reading. As always feel free to share more in the comments. Our header image this week is by Patrick Reynolds, and shows Te Komititanga from above. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to June 7
    As Workplace Relations and Safety Minister, ACT’s Brooke van Velden is fronting proposed changes to sick pay regulations and The Holiday Act. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers features talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Did we boil the oceans by cutting pollution?
    Lowering aerosol emissions from shipping has altered clouds, with potentially drastic effects. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:New evidence is increasingly pointing at efforts ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2024
    Open access notables Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming, Yuan et al., Communications Earth & Environment: Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect ...
    1 week ago
  • Fragments
    The best observation I’ve read this week about the deep, profound harm Trump is doingTrump has hurled threats and smears at witnesses, jurors and the judge (including his family)... [he] has tried to intimidate witnesses and delegitimize the New York courts as corrupt. In continuing to incite his mob (that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • March for Nature
    Do do do do do do do doDo do do do do doDi di di di di di di di di di diNature enter me…In 2018 the Labour lead government banned new oil and gas exploration in Aotearoa. A change welcomed by those who care deeply for our environment and ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Thursday, June 6
    The Transport Minister is trying to push through urgent legislation that would allow him to change emissions standards for car imports without approval from Parliament, after only consulting car importers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Just as two major reports showed fossil fuel burning was warming the planet to dangerous levels and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • A Better Broadway: Act 2
    This is a guest post by reader Grant A, the second of a pair about how to fix Broadway. If you missed the beginning of the show, here’s the link to Act 1 from yesterday. Yesterday, I discussed changing traffic circulation around Broadway in Newmarket. This included implementing a car-free ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    1 week ago
  • National breaks another health promise
    National has broken another manifesto health promise, apparently to save only $550,000. It will now train an additional 25 med students next year rather than the 50 it promised. This comes on top of the delays caused by National’s coalition partners in pushing ahead with the Waikato Medical School and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago

  • High Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Auckland King’s Counsel Gregory Peter Blanchard as a High Court Judge. Justice Blanchard attended the University of Auckland from 1991 to 1995, graduating with an LLB (Honours) and Bachelor of Arts (English). He was a solicitor with the firm that is now Dentons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Health workforce numbers rise
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says new data released today shows encouraging growth in the health workforce, with a continued increase in the numbers of doctors, nurses and midwives joining Health New Zealand. “Frontline healthcare workers are the beating heart of the healthcare system. Increasing and retaining our health workforce ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government to overhaul firearms laws
    Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee has today announced a comprehensive programme to reform New Zealand's outdated and complicated firearms laws. “The Arms Act has been in place for over 40 years. It has been amended several times – in a piecemeal, and sometimes rushed way. This has resulted in outdated ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government delivers landmark specialist schools investment
    The coalition Government is delivering record levels of targeted investment in specialist schools so children with additional needs can thrive. As part of Budget 24, $89 million has been ringfenced to redevelop specialist facilities and increase satellite classrooms for students with high needs. This includes: $63 million in depreciation funding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Major health and safety consultation begins
    A substantial consultation on work health and safety will begin today with a roadshow across the regions over the coming months, says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden.  This the first step to deliver on the commitment to reforming health and safety law and regulations, set out in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Growing the potential of New Zealand’s forestry sector in partnership
    Forestry Minister Todd McClay, today announced the start of the Government’s plan to restore certainty and confidence in the forestry and wood processing sector. “This government will drive investment to unlock the industry’s economic potential for growth,” Mr McClay says. “Forestry’s success is critical to rebuilding New Zealand’s economy, boosting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government cancels forestry ETS annual service charges for 2023-24
    Annual service charges in the forestry Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will be cancelled for 2023/24, Forestry Minister Todd McClay says. “The sector has told me the costs imposed on forestry owners by the previous government were excessive and unreasonable and I agree,” Mr McClay says. “They have said that there ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Speech to the LGNZ Infrastructure Symposium
    Introduction Thank you for having me here today and welcome to Wellington, the home of the Hurricanes, the next Super Rugby champions. Infrastructure – the challenge This government has inherited a series of big challenges in infrastructure. I don’t need to tell an audience as smart as this one that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government boosts Agriculture and food trade with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard welcomed outcomes to boost agricultural and food trade between New Zealand and China. A number of documents were signed today at Government House that will improve the business environment between New Zealand and China, and help reduce barriers, including on infant formula ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ and China launch Services Trade Negotiations
    Trade Minister Todd McClay, and China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, today announced the official launch of Negotiations on Services Trade between the two countries.  “The Government is focused on opening doors for services exporters to grow the New Zealand’s economy,” Mr McClay says.  As part of the 2022 New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement Upgrade ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Prime Minister Luxon meets with Premier Li
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at Government House in Wellington today.  “I was pleased to welcome Premier Li to Wellington for his first official visit, which marks 10 years since New Zealand and China established a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” Mr Luxon says. “The Premier and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government and business tackling gender pay gap
    The coalition Government is taking action to reduce the gender pay gap in New Zealand through the development of a voluntary calculation tool. “Gender pay gaps have impacted women for decades, which is why we need to continue to drive change in New Zealand,” Acting Minister for Women Louise Upston ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Funding Boost for Rural Support Trusts
    The coalition Government is boosting funding for Rural Support Trusts to provide more help to farmers and growers under pressure, Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson announced today. “A strong and thriving agricultural sector is crucial to the New Zealand economy and one of the ways to support it is to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Latest data shows size of public service decreasing
    Spending on contractors and consultants continues to fall and the size of the Public Service workforce has started to decrease after years of growth, according to the latest data released today by the Public Service Commission. Workforce data for the quarter from 31 December 23 to 31 March 24 shows ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Law Association
    Thank you to the Law Association for inviting me to speak this morning. As a former president under its previous name — the Auckland District Law Society — I take particular satisfaction in seeing this organisation, and its members, in such good heart. As Attorney-General, I am grateful for these ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • 25 years on, NZ reaffirms enduring friendship with Timor Leste
    New Zealand is committed to working closely with Timor-Leste to support its prosperity and resilience, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “This year is the 25th anniversary of New Zealand sending peacekeepers to Timor-Leste, who contributed to the country’s stabilisation and ultimately its independence,” Mr Peters says.    “A quarter ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Inquiry requested into rural banking
    Promoting robust competition in the banking sector is vital to rebuilding the economy, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  “New Zealanders deserve a banking sector that is as competitive as possible. Banking services play an important role in our communities and in the economy. Kiwis rely on access to lending when ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Ministry for Regulation targets red tape to keep farmers and growers competitive
    Regulation Minister David Seymour, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard have today announced a regulatory sector review on the approval process for new agricultural and horticultural products.    “Red tape stops farmers and growers from getting access to products that have been approved by other OECD countries. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government to reverse blanket speed limit reductions
    The Coalition Government will reverse Labour’s blanket speed limit reductions by 1 July 2025 through a new Land Transport Rule released for public consultation today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  The draft speed limit rule will deliver on the National-ACT coalition commitment to reverse the previous government’s blanket speed limit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Chair appointments for NZSO, CNZ and NZ On Air
    Minister Paul Goldsmith is making major leadership changes within both his Arts and Media portfolios. “I am delighted to announce Carmel Walsh will be officially stepping into the role of Chair of the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra, having been acting Chair since April,” Arts Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Carmel is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government focus on long-term food, fibre growth
    Food and fibre export revenue is tipped to reach $54.6 billion this year and hit a record $66.6b in 2028 as the Government focuses on getting better access to markets and cutting red tape, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones say. “This achievement is testament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Govt consulting on cutting red tape for exporters
    A new export exemption proposal for food businesses demonstrates the coalition Government’s commitment to reducing regulatory barriers for industry and increasing the value of New Zealand exports, which gets safe New Zealand food to more markets, says Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The coalition Government has listened to the concerns ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand and Philippines elevating relationship
    New Zealand and Philippines are continuing to elevate our relationship, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “The leaders of New Zealand and Philippines agreed in April 2024 to lift our relationship to a Comprehensive Partnership by 2026,” Mr Peters says. “Our visit to Manila this week has been an excellent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave increase to help families
    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister, Brooke van Velden says paid parental leave increase from 1 July will put more money in the pockets of Kiwi parents and give them extra support as they take precious time off to bond with their newborns. The increase takes effect from 1 July 2024 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Defence increases UN Command commitment
    The number of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel deployed to the Republic of Korea is increasing, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today.  NZDF will deploy up to 41 additional personnel to the Republic of Korea, increasing the size of its contribution to the United ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New Zealand to attend 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' in Switzerland
    New Zealand will be represented at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine by Minister Mark Mitchell in Switzerland later this week.    “New Zealand strongly supports Ukraine’s efforts to build a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Minister Mitchell is a senior Cabinet Minister and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Big step forward for M.bovis programme
    Farmers’ hard work is paying off in the fight against Mycoplasma bovis (M. bovis) with the move to a national pest management plan marking strong progress in the eradication effort, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard.  “The plan, approved by the Coalition Government, was proposed by the programme partners DairyNZ, Beef ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Build To Rent opening welcomed by Housing Minister
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Housing Minister Chris Bishop formally opened a new Build to Rent development in Mt Wellington this morning. “The Prime Minister and I were honoured to cut the ribbon of Resido, New Zealand’s largest Build to Rent development to date.  “Build to Rent housing, like the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Agriculture to come out of the ETS
    The Government will deliver on its election commitment to take agriculture out of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) and will establish a new Pastoral Sector Group to constructively tackle biogenic methane, Coalition Government Agriculture and Climate Change Ministers say. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says New Zealand farmers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Luxon Tokyo-bound for political and business visit
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will travel to Japan from 16-20 June, his first visit as Prime Minister.   “Japan is incredibly important to New Zealand's prosperity. It is the world’s fourth largest economy, and our fourth largest export destination.  “As you know, growing the economy is my number one priority. A strong economy means ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Bayly travels to Singapore for scam prevention meetings
    Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs, Andrew Bayly, travels to Singapore today to attend scam and fraud prevention meetings. “Scams are a growing international problem, and we are not immune in New Zealand. Organised criminal networks operate across borders, and we need to work with our Asia-Pacific partners to tackle ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More help for homeowners impacted by severe weather
    People who were displaced by severe weather events in 2022 and 2023 will be supported by the extension of Temporary Accommodation Assistance through to 30 June 2025. Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says the coalition Government is continuing to help to those who were forced out of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government to reverse oil and gas exploration ban
    Removing the ban on petroleum exploration beyond onshore Taranaki is part of a suite of proposed amendments to the Crown Minerals Act to deal with the energy security challenges posed by rapidly declining natural gas reserves, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “Natural gas is critical to keeping our lights on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New Zealand and Malaysia to intensify connections
    New Zealand and Malaysia intend to intensify their long-standing, deep connections, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “Malaysia is one of New Zealand’s oldest friends in South-East Asia – and both countries intend to get more out of the relationship," Mr Peters says.   "Our connections already run deep and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Ending contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua
    The end of Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) motels in Rotorua is nearing another milestone as the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announces it will not renew consents for six of the original 13 motels, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. The government is committed to stop using CEH ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • First Home Grant closure exemptions
    The Government is providing a narrow exemption from the discontinuation of the First Home Grant for first home buyers who may face unfair situations as a result, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The First Home Grant scheme was closed with immediate effect on 22 May 2024, with savings being reprioritised ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Faster consenting for flood protection projects in Hawke's Bay
    Work to increase flood resilience in Hawke’s Bay can start sooner, thanks to a new fast consenting process, Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery Mark Mitchell and Environment Minister Penny Simmonds say.  “Faster consenting means work to build stop banks, spillways and other infrastructure can get underway sooner, increasing flood ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Judge Craig Coxhead and Nathan Milner newest Māori Land Court appointments
    Tangata tū tangata ora, tangata noho tangata mate. Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka today announced acting Deputy Chief Judge Craig Coxhead as the new Deputy Chief Judge, and Nathan Milner as Judge of the Māori Land Court. "I want to congratulate Judge Coxhead and Mr Milner on their appointments ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government signs Indo-Pacific Economic agreements to boost trade
    Trade Minister Todd McClay and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts, today signed three Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) agreements that will boost investment, grow New Zealand’s digital and green economies and increase trade between New Zealand and the 14 IPEF partners. IPEF’s partners represent 40 per cent of global GDP ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government signs Indo-Pacific Economic agreements to boost trade and cooperation
    Trade Minister Todd McClay and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts, today signed three Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) agreements that will boost investment, grow New Zealand’s digital and green economies and increase trade between New Zealand and the 14 IPEF partners. IPEF’s partners represent 40 per cent of global GDP ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-06-15T21:04:06+00:00