web analytics

Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:18 am, November 21st, 2007 - 22 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:


There’s a new new Roy Morgan poll out and it’s not good news for Labour.

Gary Morgan says:

“The recent plunge in support for the Labour Party follows the mishandling of the domestic terrorism case with the October 15 arrests of Maori activists in Ruatoki.

“Solicitor-General David Collins’ ruling on November 8 that the Government’s anti-terrorism law couldn’t be used to prosecute the activists because the law was ‘confusing’ and ‘incoherent’ reflects badly on the Government’s competence.

“The referral of the Terrorism Suppression Act back to the Law Commission for major re-working — effectively scrapping the current legislation, has brought into question Helen Clark’s ability to protect New Zealanders from the scourge of terrorism. The National Party has strengthened their vote to lead Labour by a massive 14%.”

I can’t say I agree with his analysis, as I haven’t seen anything to suggest the reworking of the Terrorism Suppression Act (which both major parties voted for) has caused anyone to doubt Helen Clark’s ‘ability to protect New Zealanders from the scourge of terrorism’. This sounds like an analysis written by an Australian with little understanding of domestic issues in New Zealand (they still insist on referring to National as ‘the Nationals’).

To my mind the fact that this result is so far out of whack with other recent polls suggests it’s a rogue, but we’ll have to wait for the next few polls to see if this is the case. Either way, it will certainly give Labour pause for thought and will give NZ First a welcome glimmer of hope.

It’s also interesting to see that while this poll puts National in the driving seat, even at 48% support they’d still have trouble forming a viable government.

22 comments on “Roy Morgan poll ”

  1. dave 1

    Good try Tane, wait for the next poll and lets see how you spin your way out of that one. THe poll after that will mean labours decline is “structural”

    captcha shift culley ( you bet!)

  2. Benodic 2

    I agree with you about Gary Morgan’s analysis. What planet is that guy on? Oh yeah that’s right – Australia.

    Perhaps he’s searching desperately for something, anything, to explain away his rogue poll?

  3. Daveo 3

    Dave I know I’m hardly an objective source (being a lefty and all) but I think Tane’s analysis was pretty fair. It does look like a rogue poll compared to the others and until we see other polls to back it up I reckon we should treat it with caution. There’s no need for anyone to panic or gloat over one dubious poll. But I bet Winston will be chuffed.

  4. gobsmacked 4

    The weekend Fairfax poll is actually more recent. That’s one of those hidden details often overlooked by sloppy media, when they find a “trend” based on date of publication rather than polling.

    You’d expect National to be jumping for joy with a 14 point lead. But, again, the details are instructive. Here are the numbers:

    National 58, Labour 41, Greens 9, NZF 7, Maori 4, ACT 1, United Future 1, Jim Anderton 1. Total 122.

    That’s assuming minor party MPs hold their electorates, and ignoring the strong possibility of the Maori Party winning more.

    So National, with 48% and a big lead over Labour, still couldn’t govern without Winston (or some kind of deal with Maori/Greens). Key would be PM, but “in office, not in power”, to borrow a phrase. Those wanting a shift to the right would get very frustrated, very quickly.

    Just one example: on those numbers, Bradford’s “anti-smacking” bill would not be repealed (even if Key wanted to, which he won’t).

  5. Tane 5

    Gs, I think that’s the interesting point – Key would have to rely on NZ First, the Greens or the Maori Party to govern, and none of them are going to sign up happily to National’s privatisation agenda, its reckless tax cuts or its attacks on New Zealanders’ work rights.

    They would have the numbers to get ‘tough on crime’ though, whatever that means.

  6. Phil 6

    On that result alone, National and NZF could govern without the support of anyone else. If the Nat’s dangle the Foregin Minister carrot, and offered Defence to Ron Mark (which, quite frankly, he is far and away the most outstanding candidate in the house for that job) it would be a done deal.

  7. insider 7

    Roy Morgan seems to have missed the debates on tax and the EFB for some issue that most would have supported the govt on

  8. gobsmacked 8

    Phil: of course National could form a government. But then what?

    The media obsession with politics as a horse-race creates the illusion that securing confidence & supply is the end of the story – but it’s actually the beginning. Then the problems start.

    If he does a deal with Winston, John Key will be cutting down on his trips overseas. He doesn’t want the same reward as Jim Bolger.

  9. gobsmacked 9

    Insider: to repeat, the Fairfax poll is the more recent. It is also significantly larger, and addresses a range of related issues, which makes it more meaningful as a guide to voting after a campaign (cold versus prompted questions).

  10. The Double Standard 10

    Geez Tane, I was feeling agreeable until I got to this comment

    “National’s privatisation agenda, its reckless tax cuts or its attacks on New Zealanders’ work rights.”

    It is good to get an advance view of the latest Party memes
    -Privatisation bad – well, thats not a new one. After the last Labour govt, most of the good stuff was sold anyway.
    – Reckless tax cuts – of course Teh Party’s won’t be reckless, but anything in excess will be?
    – Work rights – How many 000’s left to Australia last month?

    So lets take a closer look at the poll results:

    Looking at the chart on the Roy Morgan site, it would seem more logical to call the previous couple of results ‘rogue’. The trend of most of the year has had Teh Party on around 35%, and the Nats on around 48%. There was a slight reversal in October, but now things are back to the long-run trend.

    It will be interesting (as usual) to see the next one, and what impact the Terror hoo-haa and EFB reporting will have. I’m doubtful that either will be good for Teh Party, but you never know.

  11. gobsmacked 11

    “It will be interesting (as usual) to see the next one”

    We already have.

  12. Sam Dixon 12

    Roy Morgan is generally the best poll – they are generalyl accurate and they poll all the time (each poll represents a two week block following the previous one).

    but there is a large problem in that the poll comes out ten days after the polling is completed, that means it can be out of date and its not useful for guaging reaction to recent evetns.

    the big story for me in this poll is NZF over 5% for the first time since I can recall. National can govern at 48% with UF and ACT if NZF doesn’t get in and wastes 3-4% of the vote, but with NZF in, its stillvery tough for National.

    Almost certianly Labour’s support has not dropped to 34%, thats’ not in line with the RoyMorgan trend, nor is it in line with other recent polls.

  13. Lee C 13

    Labour will take another hit yet because of the EFB.

    They might find themselves back where they were during the ‘Honeymoon’.

    If there is a lolly scramble, the voters might fall for it, but, there will be a large credibility gap for Labour to cross. I know this sounds bizarre given Helen’s record. But when you get the media into the fray, then it is ‘writing on the wall’ for any incumbent government.

    I think they (Labour) need to be taken down a peg or two, and get back to their basic values, because I think that they have lost their moral compass over the past four years -especially over Electoral Legislation.

    If the only place left for voters is ‘National’; then that would be the worst indictment of Labour’s record I can imagine. But if that is the case, it will be because the smaller alternative parties have shot themselves in the foot by ‘cow-towing’ too much to Helen’s initiatives.

  14. Tane, has the EPMU ever thought of entering you into a stand-up comedy festival, in lieu of being their paid, but anonymous voice for the labour movement?

    You say: “To my mind the fact that this result is so far out of whack with other recent polls suggests it’s a rogue, but we’ll have to wait for the next few polls to see if this is the case.”

    This is the same poll you were crowing about last week. I love it when reality comes back to bite you in the arse.

    Why is a National-NZF coalition so much more difficult to manage than a Labour-Greens-Maori-Progressive-NZF coalition?

    If NZF don’t break the threshhold, there will be an absolute majority for National. If they do break through, National could much more easily form a government with NZF than Labour could by pulling together its straggling friends.

  15. thomas 15

    DS Said So lets take a closer look
    Now where have i heard someone using that term before ?

  16. The Double Standard 16

    Thomas – “Now where have i heard someone using that term before”

    I dunno, maybe from your Mom?

    I guess a comment on the Poll would be to much to expect?

  17. thomas 17

    TDS The point is that you I know that you are DPF and therefore a fucking hypocrite.
    And the poll ?I am hugely disappointed .You would know what that feels like, on many levels.

    However as nobody knows what Nationals plans are because they are too scared to say anything. I fully expect the polls to change nearer the Election when the heat goes on.
    So David go and have another wank over the EFB

  18. Amateur Scrabbler 18

    I think this poll shows that National hasn’t been spooking the voters in the last little while.

    Whenever there is a reminder of the 90’s-type policies, such as uncapped doctor’s fees, part-sale of SOEs, etc, there is a decent sized dip for National in the polls.

    When it comes time to talk real policy in the campaign proper, I think the pegging will be much more level between the big two, and the usual kingmaker scenario of MMP will then arise…

  19. Amateur Scrabbler 19

    With credit to thomas, who said basically what I said. 🙂 d’oh

    Although I might add, that with NZF up so much, this poll may indeed be a rogue/outlier. What has Winston done recently to deserve this bump up?

  20. Ross Miller 20

    I just want to record my thanks to the Labour Party and its fellow travellers for their totally incompetent handling of the EFB. Its given National a sledgehammer to bash them with up until the day of the election and its going to hurt big time.

    And Labour’s loss of touch on political reality is further highlighted by the stench of corruption that now surrounds the ‘Curran Affair’.

    Has anyone else calculated the names of those Labour MPs likely to loose their seats it the results of yesterdays Roy Morgan Poll were to be repeated at the election. Makes fascinating reading.

    Oh well, never mind, tough shit and totally deserved.

  21. THE Weybridge Digger 21

    You have no idea do you ?
    Every time the news media mention the EFB they have little go at Labour but then comment about the EFB is in response to National big money funded 2005 election campaign.

    The lefts core support is 45% and even with National throwing everything at them at the last election they came through

    The only chance National have got of winning is to play the Race or Law and order card and there is a big chance that NZF is looking for the same “redneck vote”

    So Ross I know a little bit of wishful thinking is good to keep your spirits up,
    but you are in for a fall

  22. The Double Standard 22

    Thomas – tee hee, you really do live in a fantasy world. Are you really Robinsod?

    If you have such ‘proof’ why not share it and show us how clevery you aren’t?

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Equitable response to Omicron vital
    The Green Party supports the Government’s decision to move Aotearoa New Zealand to traffic light level Red at 11.59pm tonight, but says its success will depend on the support that is made available to the most vulnerable. ...
    21 hours ago
  • How we’re preparing for Omicron
    As countries around the world experience Omicron outbreaks, we’re taking steps now to ensure we’re as prepared as possible and our communities are protected. ...
    4 days ago
  • What’s Labour achieved so far?
    Quite a bit! This Government was elected to take on the toughest issues facing Aotearoa – and that’s what we’re doing. Since the start of the pandemic, protecting lives and livelihoods has been a priority, but we’ve also made progress on long-term challenges, to deliver a future the next generation ...
    1 week ago
  • Tackling the big issues in 2022
    This year, keeping Kiwis safe from COVID will remain a key priority of the Government – but we’re also pushing ahead on some of New Zealand’s biggest long-term challenges. In 2022, we’re working to get more Kiwis into homes, reduce emissions, lift children out of poverty, and ensure people get ...
    2 weeks ago

  • New Zealand to move to Red from 11.59pm today
    All of New Zealand will move to the Red setting of the Covid Protection Framework (CPF) at 11:59pm today as Omicron is potentially now transmitting in the community, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says. “Nine COVID-19 cases reported yesterday in the Nelson/Marlborough region are now confirmed as Omicron, and a further ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Mandatory boosters for key workforces progressing well
    More than 5,785 (82%) border workers eligible for a booster vaccination at 6 months have received it so far, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. “That’s a really strong uptake considering we announced the requirement the week before Christmas, but we need to continue this momentum,” Chris Hipkins said. “We ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • NZ to move to Red
    Nine COVID-19 cases reported yesterday in the Nelson/Marlborough region have now been confirmed as the Omicron variant, and a further case from the same household was confirmed late yesterday. These cases are in a single family that flew to Auckland on 13 January to attend a wedding and other events ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • New Zealand to provide further help for Tonga
    Aotearoa New Zealand is giving an additional $2 million in humanitarian funding for Tonga as the country recovers from a volcanic eruption and tsunami last weekend, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Defence Minister Peeni Henare said today. This brings Aotearoa New Zealand’s contribution to $3 million. “This support will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Quarterly benefit numbers show highest number of exits into work
    The Government’s strong focus on supporting more people into work is reflected in benefit figures released today which show a year-on-year fall of around 21,300 people receiving a main benefit in the December 2021 quarter, Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni said. “Our response to COVID has helped ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Northland to move to Orange, NZ prepared for Omicron 
    Northland to move to Orange Rest of New Zealand stays at Orange in preparedness for Omicron All of New Zealand to move into Red in the event of Omicron community outbreak – no use of lockdowns Govt planning well advanced – new case management, close contact definition and testing rules ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • RNZAF C-130 Hercules flight departs for Tonga as Navy vessels draw nearer to Tongatapu
    A Royal New Zealand Air Force C-130 Hercules has departed Base Auckland Whenuapai for Tonga carrying aid supplies, as the New Zealand aid effort ramps up, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Defence Minister Peeni Henare said today. “The aircraft is carrying humanitarian aid and disaster relief supplies, including water ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand prepared to send support to Tonga
    New Zealand is ready to assist Tonga in its recovery from Saturday night’s undersea eruption and tsunami, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Defence Minister Peeni Henare said today. “Following the successful surveillance and reconnaissance flight of a New Zealand P-3K2 Orion on Monday, imagery and details have been sent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Aotearoa New Zealand stands ready to assist people of Tonga
    The thoughts of New Zealanders are with the people of Tonga following yesterday’s undersea volcanic eruption and subsequent tsunami waves, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta says. “Damage assessments are under way and New Zealand has formally offered to provide assistance to Tonga,” said Nanaia Mahuta. New Zealand has made an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Record high of new homes consented continues
    In the year ended November 2021, 48,522 new homes were consented, up 26 per cent from the November 2020 year. In November 2021, 4,688 new dwellings were consented. Auckland’s new homes consented numbers rose 25 per cent in the last year. Annual figures for the last nine months show more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Report trumpets scope for ice cream exports
    Latest research into our premium ice cream industry suggests exporters could find new buyers in valuable overseas markets as consumers increasingly look for tip top quality in food. Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash has released a new report for the Food and Beverage Information Project. The project is run by ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Honouring the legacy of legendary kaumātua Muriwai Ihakara
    Associate Minister for Arts, Culture, and Heritage Kiri Allan expressed her great sadness and deepest condolences at the passing of esteemed kaumātua, Muriwai Ihakara. “Muriwai’s passing is not only a loss for the wider creative sector but for all of Aotearoa New Zealand. The country has lost a much beloved ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Have your say on proposed changes to make drinking water safer
    Associate Minister for the Environment Kiri Allan is urging all New Zealanders to give feedback on proposed changes aimed at making drinking water safer. “The current regulations are not fit for purpose and don’t offer enough protection, particularly for those whose water comes from smaller supplies,” Kiri Allan said. “This ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Planting the seeds for rewarding careers
    A boost in funding for a number of Jobs for Nature initiatives across Canterbury will provide sustainable employment opportunities for more than 70 people, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “The six projects are diverse, ranging from establishing coastline trapping in Kaikōura, to setting up a native plant nursery, restoration planting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand congratulates Tonga's new Prime Minister on appointment
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta today congratulated Hon Hu'akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni on being appointed Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Tonga. “Aotearoa New Zealand and Tonga have an enduring bond and the Kingdom is one of our closest neighbours in the Pacific. We look forward to working with Prime ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • High-tech investment extends drought forecasting for farmers and growers
    The Government is investing in the development of a new forecasting tool that makes full use of innovative climate modelling to help farmers and growers prepare for dry conditions, Agriculture Minister Damien O'Connor said.  The new approach, which will cost $200,000 and is being jointly funded through the Ministry for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Support for fire-hit Waiharara community
    The government will contribute $20,000 towards a Mayoral Relief Fund to support those most affected by the fires in Waiharara in the Far North, Minister for Emergency Management Kiri Allan says. “I have spoken to Far North Mayor John Carter about the effect the fires continue to have, on residents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Manawatū’s ‘oases of nature’ receive conservation boost
    The Government is throwing its support behind projects aimed at restoring a cluster of eco-islands and habitats in the Manawatū which were once home to kiwi and whio. “The projects, which stretch from the Ruahine Ranges to the Horowhenua coastline, will build on conservation efforts already underway and contribute ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago