Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:18 am, November 21st, 2007 - 22 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:


There’s a new new Roy Morgan poll out and it’s not good news for Labour.

Gary Morgan says:

“The recent plunge in support for the Labour Party follows the mishandling of the domestic terrorism case with the October 15 arrests of Maori activists in Ruatoki.

“Solicitor-General David Collins’ ruling on November 8 that the Government’s anti-terrorism law couldn’t be used to prosecute the activists because the law was ‘confusing’ and ‘incoherent’ reflects badly on the Government’s competence.

“The referral of the Terrorism Suppression Act back to the Law Commission for major re-working — effectively scrapping the current legislation, has brought into question Helen Clark’s ability to protect New Zealanders from the scourge of terrorism. The National Party has strengthened their vote to lead Labour by a massive 14%.”

I can’t say I agree with his analysis, as I haven’t seen anything to suggest the reworking of the Terrorism Suppression Act (which both major parties voted for) has caused anyone to doubt Helen Clark’s ‘ability to protect New Zealanders from the scourge of terrorism’. This sounds like an analysis written by an Australian with little understanding of domestic issues in New Zealand (they still insist on referring to National as ‘the Nationals’).

To my mind the fact that this result is so far out of whack with other recent polls suggests it’s a rogue, but we’ll have to wait for the next few polls to see if this is the case. Either way, it will certainly give Labour pause for thought and will give NZ First a welcome glimmer of hope.

It’s also interesting to see that while this poll puts National in the driving seat, even at 48% support they’d still have trouble forming a viable government.

22 comments on “Roy Morgan poll”

  1. dave 1

    Good try Tane, wait for the next poll and lets see how you spin your way out of that one. THe poll after that will mean labours decline is “structural”

    captcha shift culley ( you bet!)

  2. Benodic 2

    I agree with you about Gary Morgan’s analysis. What planet is that guy on? Oh yeah that’s right – Australia.

    Perhaps he’s searching desperately for something, anything, to explain away his rogue poll?

  3. Daveo 3

    Dave I know I’m hardly an objective source (being a lefty and all) but I think Tane’s analysis was pretty fair. It does look like a rogue poll compared to the others and until we see other polls to back it up I reckon we should treat it with caution. There’s no need for anyone to panic or gloat over one dubious poll. But I bet Winston will be chuffed.

  4. gobsmacked 4

    The weekend Fairfax poll is actually more recent. That’s one of those hidden details often overlooked by sloppy media, when they find a “trend” based on date of publication rather than polling.

    You’d expect National to be jumping for joy with a 14 point lead. But, again, the details are instructive. Here are the numbers:

    National 58, Labour 41, Greens 9, NZF 7, Maori 4, ACT 1, United Future 1, Jim Anderton 1. Total 122.

    That’s assuming minor party MPs hold their electorates, and ignoring the strong possibility of the Maori Party winning more.

    So National, with 48% and a big lead over Labour, still couldn’t govern without Winston (or some kind of deal with Maori/Greens). Key would be PM, but “in office, not in power”, to borrow a phrase. Those wanting a shift to the right would get very frustrated, very quickly.

    Just one example: on those numbers, Bradford’s “anti-smacking” bill would not be repealed (even if Key wanted to, which he won’t).

  5. Tane 5

    Gs, I think that’s the interesting point – Key would have to rely on NZ First, the Greens or the Maori Party to govern, and none of them are going to sign up happily to National’s privatisation agenda, its reckless tax cuts or its attacks on New Zealanders’ work rights.

    They would have the numbers to get ‘tough on crime’ though, whatever that means.

  6. Phil 6

    On that result alone, National and NZF could govern without the support of anyone else. If the Nat’s dangle the Foregin Minister carrot, and offered Defence to Ron Mark (which, quite frankly, he is far and away the most outstanding candidate in the house for that job) it would be a done deal.

  7. insider 7

    Roy Morgan seems to have missed the debates on tax and the EFB for some issue that most would have supported the govt on

  8. gobsmacked 8

    Phil: of course National could form a government. But then what?

    The media obsession with politics as a horse-race creates the illusion that securing confidence & supply is the end of the story – but it’s actually the beginning. Then the problems start.

    If he does a deal with Winston, John Key will be cutting down on his trips overseas. He doesn’t want the same reward as Jim Bolger.

  9. gobsmacked 9

    Insider: to repeat, the Fairfax poll is the more recent. It is also significantly larger, and addresses a range of related issues, which makes it more meaningful as a guide to voting after a campaign (cold versus prompted questions).

  10. The Double Standard 10

    Geez Tane, I was feeling agreeable until I got to this comment

    “National’s privatisation agenda, its reckless tax cuts or its attacks on New Zealanders’ work rights.”

    It is good to get an advance view of the latest Party memes
    -Privatisation bad – well, thats not a new one. After the last Labour govt, most of the good stuff was sold anyway.
    – Reckless tax cuts – of course Teh Party’s won’t be reckless, but anything in excess will be?
    – Work rights – How many 000’s left to Australia last month?

    So lets take a closer look at the poll results:

    Looking at the chart on the Roy Morgan site, it would seem more logical to call the previous couple of results ‘rogue’. The trend of most of the year has had Teh Party on around 35%, and the Nats on around 48%. There was a slight reversal in October, but now things are back to the long-run trend.

    It will be interesting (as usual) to see the next one, and what impact the Terror hoo-haa and EFB reporting will have. I’m doubtful that either will be good for Teh Party, but you never know.

  11. gobsmacked 11

    “It will be interesting (as usual) to see the next one”

    We already have.

  12. Sam Dixon 12

    Roy Morgan is generally the best poll – they are generalyl accurate and they poll all the time (each poll represents a two week block following the previous one).

    but there is a large problem in that the poll comes out ten days after the polling is completed, that means it can be out of date and its not useful for guaging reaction to recent evetns.

    the big story for me in this poll is NZF over 5% for the first time since I can recall. National can govern at 48% with UF and ACT if NZF doesn’t get in and wastes 3-4% of the vote, but with NZF in, its stillvery tough for National.

    Almost certianly Labour’s support has not dropped to 34%, thats’ not in line with the RoyMorgan trend, nor is it in line with other recent polls.

  13. Lee C 13

    Labour will take another hit yet because of the EFB.

    They might find themselves back where they were during the ‘Honeymoon’.

    If there is a lolly scramble, the voters might fall for it, but, there will be a large credibility gap for Labour to cross. I know this sounds bizarre given Helen’s record. But when you get the media into the fray, then it is ‘writing on the wall’ for any incumbent government.

    I think they (Labour) need to be taken down a peg or two, and get back to their basic values, because I think that they have lost their moral compass over the past four years -especially over Electoral Legislation.

    If the only place left for voters is ‘National’; then that would be the worst indictment of Labour’s record I can imagine. But if that is the case, it will be because the smaller alternative parties have shot themselves in the foot by ‘cow-towing’ too much to Helen’s initiatives.

  14. Tane, has the EPMU ever thought of entering you into a stand-up comedy festival, in lieu of being their paid, but anonymous voice for the labour movement?

    You say: “To my mind the fact that this result is so far out of whack with other recent polls suggests it’s a rogue, but we’ll have to wait for the next few polls to see if this is the case.”

    This is the same poll you were crowing about last week. I love it when reality comes back to bite you in the arse.

    Why is a National-NZF coalition so much more difficult to manage than a Labour-Greens-Maori-Progressive-NZF coalition?

    If NZF don’t break the threshhold, there will be an absolute majority for National. If they do break through, National could much more easily form a government with NZF than Labour could by pulling together its straggling friends.

  15. thomas 15

    DS Said So lets take a closer look
    Now where have i heard someone using that term before ?

  16. The Double Standard 16

    Thomas – “Now where have i heard someone using that term before”

    I dunno, maybe from your Mom?

    I guess a comment on the Poll would be to much to expect?

  17. thomas 17

    TDS The point is that you I know that you are DPF and therefore a fucking hypocrite.
    And the poll ?I am hugely disappointed .You would know what that feels like, on many levels.

    However as nobody knows what Nationals plans are because they are too scared to say anything. I fully expect the polls to change nearer the Election when the heat goes on.
    So David go and have another wank over the EFB

  18. Amateur Scrabbler 18

    I think this poll shows that National hasn’t been spooking the voters in the last little while.

    Whenever there is a reminder of the 90’s-type policies, such as uncapped doctor’s fees, part-sale of SOEs, etc, there is a decent sized dip for National in the polls.

    When it comes time to talk real policy in the campaign proper, I think the pegging will be much more level between the big two, and the usual kingmaker scenario of MMP will then arise…

  19. Amateur Scrabbler 19

    With credit to thomas, who said basically what I said. 🙂 d’oh

    Although I might add, that with NZF up so much, this poll may indeed be a rogue/outlier. What has Winston done recently to deserve this bump up?

  20. Ross Miller 20

    I just want to record my thanks to the Labour Party and its fellow travellers for their totally incompetent handling of the EFB. Its given National a sledgehammer to bash them with up until the day of the election and its going to hurt big time.

    And Labour’s loss of touch on political reality is further highlighted by the stench of corruption that now surrounds the ‘Curran Affair’.

    Has anyone else calculated the names of those Labour MPs likely to loose their seats it the results of yesterdays Roy Morgan Poll were to be repeated at the election. Makes fascinating reading.

    Oh well, never mind, tough shit and totally deserved.

  21. THE Weybridge Digger 21

    You have no idea do you ?
    Every time the news media mention the EFB they have little go at Labour but then comment about the EFB is in response to National big money funded 2005 election campaign.

    The lefts core support is 45% and even with National throwing everything at them at the last election they came through

    The only chance National have got of winning is to play the Race or Law and order card and there is a big chance that NZF is looking for the same “redneck vote”

    So Ross I know a little bit of wishful thinking is good to keep your spirits up,
    but you are in for a fall

  22. The Double Standard 22

    Thomas – tee hee, you really do live in a fantasy world. Are you really Robinsod?

    If you have such ‘proof’ why not share it and show us how clevery you aren’t?

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