- Date published:
11:17 am, July 15th, 2020 - 41 comments
Categories: class war, election 2020, elections, Gerry Brownlee, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, Media, Politics, same old national - Tags: act, labour, national, polls, Roy Morgan poll, The Greens
The size of the job in front of new Tory leader Judith Collins is laid bare in the latest Roy Morgan poll.
Labour would win a comfortable outright victory, and with the Greens added, the Government would be returned with around 75 seats. And that’s without NZ First making it back to Parliament, so win/win!
The gap between the opposition and the Government is massive; 32% vs 65%.
The Morgan poll also notes strong support for the Government in Consumer confidence and in the ‘Right direction/Wrong direction’ poll.
All in all, a very satisfactory place to be for Labour and the Greens. National would need to lift at least 15% to even dream about winning power.
There’s nothing to suggest the tired team of Collins and Brownlee will make that much of a difference in the short time remaining till election day.
Your reading seems valid. Minor quibble: JC is already demonstrating that she has more going for her than you think. As someone who has discounted her for years, I'm impressed. Has she got the x factor like Jacinda? I suspect not, however.
So it's down to damage control for National, and she seems set to minimise the damage they've done to themselves. I'm now expecting her to lift National into the mid-30s in the next poll. Provided she is fair in her critique of Labour, that is. If she defaults to being merely oppositional, that lift will probably only reach the lower 30s.
"I'm now expecting her to lift National into the mid-30s in the next poll."
If you mean the next Morgan poll, it's a month away, so it could be anything really.
If you mean the next public poll of any kind, then Muller has given National a problem. The OneNews CB poll had them on 38%. They got a Muller bounce (or a Not-Bridges bounce, or a Covid bad news bounce – it doesn't much matter).
So "mid-30s" won't be perceived as a lift, but a fall. For momentum, the line has to go up, and 40+ is a tough ask.
Judith is likely to recapture some of the lost tories who felt like ACT was their only choice as well. Combine those two factors and we could see JC push the Nats right up against the edge of 40%
She'll definitely be a strong leader but that doesn't necessarily mean that she'll be a good leader. Of course, National voters seem to prefer strong over good.
Perhaps or she's set to damage National in other ways.
When was the last time that a National Party leader was fair? All I can remember is them lying especially about Labour and the Greens.
Reinforces my theory that the last Colmar Brunton significantly overstated the (9 point) swing away from Labour in June (their May Poll looking more and more like an outlier that exaggerated Lab support – against CB's usual Nat-friendly House Effect – & therefore exaggerated the subsequent swing away).
Wouldn't take too much notice of the Greens' 9% rating … Roy Morgan is usually the Party's best Pollster … a pretty fair bet they're overstating support.
NZF are in a bad way. And Collins ascension just rubs salt into the wound.
Likely overestimating the support somewhat, but their trend for the green party is promising. Up from the last poll and recovering from the lockdown drop that every party except labour experienced
Would Labour reach out a formal partnership hand to the Greens if Labour win outright? Surely not?
I'm sure they would. Key even did it with the Maori Party, a much bigger chasm to bridge.
Labour on 61 are not going to tell the Greens to join the 59.
Absolutely Labour will want the Greens on board.
Firstly, out of loyalty to a party that has been supportive of Labour led Governments for 20 years. Secondly, because Labour may need them in 2023, so continuity counts. Thirdly, because the Greens are a source of progressive ideas that Labour can adopt without reputational risk.
I'd also add that I expect NZ First to be kept in the tent, too. Assuming they make it back, of course.
Add to that James Shaw and Jacinda Ardern are personal friends going back many years.
Yes x three
'Labour' and 'loyalty' in the same sentence?!
You're having a laugh…
But would Winston First agree to share the tent with the Greens? And which of the two will Labour favour this time?
Well I am a late convert to optimism over polls for a Labour/Green Govt., because decades of election results show around 40% hard wired tory support out there–I include National and some of the revolving (per MMP) rats and mice parties to get that guesstimate.
But there does seem to be a trend in 2020 now, even though professional polling seems to be less in number and more haphazardly scheduled than even 3 years ago. The Curia poll was dropped prior to the 2017 election I seem to recall. There does not seem to be a ‘poll of polls’ these days either apart from posters like swordfish’s efforts.
It is a moveable feast perhaps, so cautious optimism is ok. For a number of New Zealanders Labour just needs to say “we kept the lid on Covid, can National be trusted to do that?” The answer is National would likely have locked down later–if at all, and opened up earlier, the consequences of that course are on display all around the world.
About 4% from National seemed to have piled into Act. So about 34% as together sharing the same bed. Or not.
The hope is that the pandemic has ripped the mask of moral respectability off National – and that enough people feel that it is time to expel the toxin from the body politic permanently. And that some sort of new (and better) configuration of parties appears. No way I would be counting on it though.
We definitely need to see more people lecturing the country – on behalf of the party that plies underage kids with booze and then denies everything when somebody gropes them at their weird live-in youth indoctrination camps.
Please do keep talking about morality! It always works a treat.
Game on! 😎
[It was just a matter of time before you’d take it too far. Don’t make up vile shit again unless you want to lose your privilege for the rest of the year. Don’t argue with Moderators because it will have the same consequence for you – Incognito]
[lprent: Personally I feel RRM is just an self-entitled troll who is simply incapable of learning. I’d have problems figuring out the number of times I’ve banned it. But lets see if it is capable of remembering its previous arse kickings, and speculate on its ability to learn from experience. I’d take a bet that it is simply too stupid to learn myself. ]
See my Moderation note @ 1:50 PM.
Heh – only the most desperate parties would change leaders this close to an election, right? 😎
Don’t forget this poll was taken when some white fella in a suit had just rolled Bridges. National have a stunning and brave woman at the top now.
National have a stunning and brave woman at the top now.
A feeling shared by many in the Ministry of Magic when Dolores Umbridge took over at Hogwarts.
Go on, show us what you got?
She's a woman so you can't play the sexist patriarchy card.
She's married to a Samoan so you can't play the you’re racist card.
Oravida was thoroughly investigated and cleared. Only boring tribal people with a lisp and a penchant for making stuff up will be banging on about that.
Game on! 😎
In a way RRM just accidentally demonstrated the problem – in microcosm.
Phil is not some tribal leftie. But the Collins fan club treat all doubters as Disloyal, which is why National MPs have not trusted her before (and probably don't now).
Probably could because people in that position have bought into the racism and sexism that is endemic to the National clique.
No, actually, it wasn't:
If the advice was what Key claims he would have released it. Without the release there can be no thorough investigation.
Justice must be seen to be done.
It's possible to be a female misogynist.
It's possible to be racist and married to someone 'of colour' – like Brash for example.
Also Labour has a fiver so must be good with the economy.
Know her by her friends. Not Key, not English.
Brash and Shipley coming out strong for her.
And "the tired team of Collins & Brownlee"….. LMFAO!
Because normal voting people will think it's strange to see a professional organization led by experienced senior people… right? That certainly never happens out there in the real world.
Game on! 😎
Judith and Gerry should have some appeal to Grey Power.
Why? I'm Grey Power and I find little appeal in either leader. Is it because of age? Grey Power age group is 50+. It has about 60,000 members out of an eligible population of say 1.5 million. You're making some pretty wide assumptions about how seniors vote. I'm also much more appealed to by a younger, intelligent, warm, empathetic, compassionate woman than to a person nearer my age who has far fewer of those qualities, especially in depth.
But I'm just a boomer………… though we do know about dodgy dealers, dirty politics machinators, airport bullies, stairwell shovers, misusers of private information.
You’re right, of course. Next time I’ll add this:
Ah, humour, I've heard rumours about that.
Nope, not me; I display my “complete lack of humour”, warts and all. Politics is deadly serious business, cut-throat, say some.
They are the absolute bottom of the barrel.
Just go look on her facebook page ,1200 posts, about 200 have any respect for her
They are at it again, the Nats,
Another bleeder bites the dust,
Now they present old has-beens,
As the new face to stop the rust.
O how their adoring media folk,
Try to spin the joke,
A third time lucky trout for leader,
For deputy, that big fat bloke.
But no matter how they spin it,
Their days are numbered fine,
And after the coming election,
Another bleeder will stand in line.
Any poll with greens on 9 and act on 5 is clearly a bullshit poll
Alan, both parties have done better than those numbers in actual elections, so yeah, nah. It’s no surprise in winter 2020 that either party are where the RM says they are (or close nearby). The Greens are closely associated with Labour and Labour’s doing well. ACT are a security blanket for depressed Nats. It makes sense that both would do well in the polls at this point in time.
Could it be biased in favour of younger generations though? Might explain more support for minor parties (diversity having more appeal).
There's also their design using a broad window of time rather than the usual narrow window. That suggests it discriminates against fluctuations, making it more robust.
It can be read as a referendum on Muller, since it spans his tenure as leader, suggesting a definite subsidence after his initial lift. Also the undecided seem smaller than usual – implying Labour has won most of the swing vote already.
As Nationals tamed MSN disinformation gang whitewash Crushers Dirty Politics history and Crusher instills fear in her cabinet to stop the leaks I'm sure they will gain a small bit of that gap back, but I think some of that regain will be from Act's numbers.
With such a short time before the election though I bet the Dirty Politics crowd that will be emboldened now one of there own is sitting at the top of National will be looking for a nasty fake hit against the current government just before the polls so there is little time for it to be disproved.