Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 2:45 pm, November 9th, 2007 - 36 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

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There’s a new Roy Morgan poll today, and it’s good news for the left.

Gary Morgan says:

“The vote for the Labour Government has surpassed the 40% mark for the first time since January. Conversely, the vote for John Key’s Nationals (45%) is at its lowest level since March.

“Since early August, the Labour vote is up 9.5% (from 31% to 40.5%), whereas the National vote is down 5.5% (from 50.5% to 45%) for the same period.”

The media will no doubt focus on the two-horse race between National and Labour, but on these numbers it’s a clear left majority.

36 comments on “Roy Morgan poll”

  1. Tane – why are you so sure that the Maori Party are part of the Labour Party bloc? Surely there’s some uncertainty there. Increasingly they (and the Greens) are part of the political *centre* and will be able to swing both ways. So to automatically assume that these parties would support a Labour Government might be seen as a bit arrogant or foolish. Or are you just trying to be cheerleader?

    Bryce
    http://www.liberation.org.nz

  2. Tane 2

    Bryce, the Greens’ policies are clearly left of centre, and certainly to the left of Labour on many issues. They’re also far closer to Labour than National on climate change, which is their flagship policy.

    The Maori Party is a more difficult issue, but when you look at their voting record (as DPF did recently) as well as the social class of their voters I think it’s pretty safe to count them for the left.

  3. Patrick 3

    Bryce,

    I agree that one shouldn’t assume that the Maori (or Green) Party would automatically side with Labour post-election, however you do raise a good point.

    Given these results, in order to grab the treasury benches National would need to form a coalition (in whatever form it may take) with… Act, United Future AND either the Maori Party or the Greens. Now given, that is possible, but how sustainable would such a government be? Do you think it would be able to last three years? Many people questioned the long-term stability of the current government when it was formed, but thanks in large part to Helen Clark’s supreme political abilities, the government looks solid as a rock.

    So if John Key did manage to negotiate a coalition, what would happen? Would it last a full three years? After that, how would the National Party and Green/Maori Parties support bases feel? I really believe that a coalition like would be electoral suicide for all parties involved.

    So what does the ‘left’ alternative look like? Labour Jim Greens UF would make a slim majority in the house, but I really don’t think it would work unless Helen could form a wider arangement that also brought in the Maori Party. Would she be able to do that? I don’t doubt it.

    Of course, there are still plenty of ‘what ifs’. Winston is always unpredictable, he could possibly snatch an electorate or 5% of the party vote, especially if displeasure with John Key continues to grow. What if the Maori Party grab another electorate seat, further increasing the overhang of parliament (a situation which these polls don’t consider at all)?

    But overall I see this as being a very positive poll for the left, and it’s sure going to be one fascinating campaign!

  4. Billy 4

    Please refer to the Progressives by their proper name: Jim Anderton’s Progressive Party.

    Why do I feel the overwhelming desire to use the underused term “Lickspittle”?.

  5. thomas 5

    So Left Green is half a percent up from the gen election

    So the Nats have nicked their 6% from NZF and United

    Looking good for a L M G coalition.
    (if a few bridges can be built)

  6. someLoser 6

    coz thats what all the coolest tories are saying?

  7. ak 8

    But how reliable is the Morgan poll? Let’s ask the expert.

    David Farrar, August 07: “I like Morgan because it correctly (in my opinion) showed the lead changing back and forwards several times. So Helen Clark may find it harder to dismiss this result…”

    Neck and neck by Christmas?

  8. Matthew Pilott 9

    Billy, do you have a raging hard-on for Anderton? There isn’t a single party there that has its full name in there correctly.

    Why do I feel the overwhelming desire to use the under-used term “pedantic”?

  9. thomas 10

    Neck and neck by Christmas?
    Particularly if Key tries to release policy

  10. Patrick 11

    Why does Key need to try to release policy when he’s got backbenchers like Allan Peachy? Hell, or even front-benchers like Tony Ryall and Bill English, so seem quite able to reveal what Nation Party policy actually is? Quite frankly, I’m wondering if there is anyone in National who is actually able to form a policy and release it?

    Neck and neck by Christmas, I don’t doubt it.

  11. Santa Claws 12

    I think the next poll will be interesting. This one missed most of the Mallard Biffo fallout, and the subsequent conference punch-up. Also missed the Cullen/Clark flip flop on tax cuts too.

    It does show that large shifts are possible in a fairly short time frame, some thing probably scares both major parties somewhat.

  12. Sam Dixon 13

    The Nat supporters have never truely realised how hard the maths is for them… their big uptick in the middle of this year was never going to be permanent and now they’ve sunk to mid-40s levels they’re left with only unrealistic coalition/agreement options.

    Can you imagine Hone and John Carter in a coalition? I don’t think so. (its an obsecure reference, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carter_(New_Zealand)).

    If Winnie can win a seat we might be looking at Lab/Green/NZF/Prog… more acceptable to the middle classes than having the Maori on board? acutally, at 3.5% he’s in striking range of 5%, just needs to take a few anti-privitsation conservatives off National and they’re there.

  13. thomas 14

    Yes Sam D I think that is the likeliest probability
    NZF taking 1.5% of the redneck vote off National is certainly doable
    And playing the racism will be the way he does it.
    I would prefer A L/M/G/P coalition
    But hey I’ll take the other option

  14. Sam Dixon 15

    I see neither of the major news websites has this poll up.

  15. rjs131 16

    Yeah i can really imagine NZF and the greens working well in coalition. Ron Mark and Keith Locke share so much in common!!!!

  16. gobsmacked 17

    There’s also a huge difference in expectations between the two major parties. They are at different stages in the political life cycle.

    Labour: already had 3 terms, will put up with a deal with Winston or Maori Party and accept half a loaf. No more unpalatable than the current arrangement.

    National: golden boy looking forward to a “landslide” (his word), having dumped or disguised as much right-wing policy as possible just to get into power after 9 years out. Then he finds he has to dump even more. A clear contrast with Labour winning their first term in 1999, with a left-leaning majority for their programme.

    In 1996 Bolger gave away too much for the National caucus to stomach, and soon lost his job. John Key can expect the same fate.

  17. gobsmacked 18

    RJS131

    Ron Mark already supports the current government on confidence and supply. Keith Locke abstains. If Locke had to come off the fence, do you think he’d land on National’s side? (Hint: it’s a rhetorical question)

  18. dave 19

    Actually its 59-59 with the Maori abstaining on confidence and supply in a National Government. Hardly a clear left majority.

  19. dave 20

    ..actually that should be 60-59, with the Maori party getting 5 seats – as they will do.

  20. ak 21

    Sam: “..their big uptick in the middle of this year was never going to be permanent”

    Dead right, and now the tories will reap the just rewards for stooping so low.

    The “landslide” that the polls suggested to Key was based on nothing more than his “do nothing” honeymoon, massive media-assisted faux-outrage over minor Labour gaffes, and the usual putrid pottage of misogynistic/victim-bashing dogwhistling and “tax-cut” vote buying.

    Now the inoculations and gutter stuff is coming back to haunt them. The honeymoon glow is fading fast and the talkback turkeys attracted to the ranting and femme-fear are beginning to see a directionless and rather effete wide-boy in charge of a bumbling and insipid coterie of Hollow has-beens.
    At the same time, the very ranting that attracted the good ole boys has also precluded the minor-party partnerships that the mythical landslide hoped to avoid.

    More of the same won’t work in election year, even with a partisan press – but that’s all they have left. I predict increasing desperation and loud feverish grasping at any stray political straw accompanied by increasingly damaging infighting as reality dawns over the next few months.

    That’s when Labour will have to watch like hawks for something really big and dirty: four in a row is simply untenable to the spooks behind these clowns, and they’ve shown repeatedly that they will stop at nothing.

  21. gobsmacked 22

    Dave

    60 for the left. The Maori Party would have to vote for National, not abstain.

  22. Santa Claws 23

    “minor National gaffes, and the usual putrid pottage of misogynistic/Tau-bashing dogwhistling and “tax-cut” vote buying.”

    Sounds just like what Labour is up to

    Ho Ho HO

  23. thomas 24

    “Sounds just like what Labour is up to”
    What a witty well thought out reply

  24. ak 25

    mmmmmm Thomas…. and “ho ho HO”. Such class.

    The dazzling repartee of the spoon-fed set, eh?

  25. thomas 26

    That’s when Labour will have to watch like hawks for something really big and dirty: four in a row is simply untenable to the spooks behind these clowns, and they’ve shown repeatedly that they will stop at nothing.

    and the reply “ho ho Ho”

    Nothing to worry about then!

  26. ak 27

    Speaking of worrying thomas, here’s a wee pointer to what sort of thing might “crop up” near to the election: the “my views” on the Herald site typically run to about 30 pages of comments on such topics as “has John Key got your vote?” or “are tax cuts good?”.
    Check it out right now: for “Do you think the police’s actions were justified?” there are, wait for it, 219 pages of comments.

    The comments run at about three to one favouring “yes” and the “yes” camp is essentially pro-recent Winnie “one law for all” Orewa One-style cant.

    The numbers alone tell the story of what still shakes us, and this won’t be lost on the Hollow Men. Orewa One was classic premature political ejaculation, but you can bet they won’t hesitate to pull the race card out again close to the election. Labour will have to be very careful: Winnie will rise in the next poll and the tories may once again eye him as their great brown hope.

  27. thomas 28

    Yes Ak i think that the Nats and or Winnie will get desperate enough to play the “brown” card. Its a riskier strategy for National then NZF National might just need the Maori vote if it gets close or not close enough.
    If Winnie plays it it, might be to the lefts advantage as he will take the redneck vote of National which will let Lab/Greens in
    and hopefully the then reduced nat vote increased winnie won’t be enough.

  28. thomas 29

    ” increased winnie”

  29. Policy Parrot 30

    Ha – the National Party needing to rely on the Maori Party’s Maori electorate overhang to govern on confidence and supply…

    Don Brash must be turning in his political grave…

    I suspect the left overhang may decrease by 1 however.

  30. Robinsod (moderator) 31

    It does show that large shifts are possible in a fairly short time frame, some thing probably scares both major parties somewhat

    I’ve gotta agree with DPF Claws on this – it seems like every election the swing vote is growing. I suspect it’s to do with the lowest common denominator campaigning that’s used to target the swing vote alienating people from politics and thus creating a large swing vote in a worryingly undemocratic vicious cycle.

  31. the owl 32

    Although Maori Party voting inclinations belong with Labour, and Maori party voters give a majority of their party votes to Labour, do not assume that means they will be part of a Labour led coalition. They say they will listen to their members, but they said that last election and if they had truly listened to them, they would have been with Labour. Turiana does not like Helen, and I dont think she will be able to work with Labour. National has been whispering in Turiana and Pita’s ears, and they are seeing cabinet seat positions in the stars in their eyes. Can you imagine it!
    I watch National talk about abolishing the Maorui seats and nary a peep out of the Maori party except to say it wont really happen, John Key promised them, but when Labour warns against Maori Party going with National and what a National government means to Maori in general, Turiana goes on a tirade against Labour. It pretty much sums up what she is really thinking. Unless they come out with some clarification soon, I will continue to believe that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National. No thanks.

  32. Brook 33

    How are these polls conducted?

  33. Tane 34

    Hi guys, I think you’re commenting on an old Roy Morgan poll.

    The one you’re after is here:

    Roy Morgan poll

  34. Matthew Pilott 35

    Maybe the headings should be dated.

  35. Tane 36

    You could argue.

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