Seat watch – Te Tai Tokerau

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 65 comments
Categories: election 2014, hone harawira, internet mana party, Maori seats - Tags:

Will Hone hang on and bring in Internet Mana MPs with him?  The polls suggest that the race with Kelvin Davis is neck and neck although Hone has this habit of doing far better than the landline polls would suggest.

19:40: 15.15% Smaller booths.

  • Hone Harawira (Mana) 2380
  • Kelvin Davis (Lab) 2043
  • Te Hira Paenga (Maori) 538

21:30: 60.6% Still knife edge – Kelvin has to pull a away a head to get past the spacial votes.

  • Kelvin Davis (Lab) 4435
  • Hone Harawira (Mana) 4195
  • Te Hira Paenga (Maori) 1173

Oh well no Internet Mana. Didn’t get the percentages anyway.

65 comments on “Seat watch – Te Tai Tokerau ”

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  1. karol 1
    20 September 2014 at 7:36 pm

    Hone leading by just over 300+ votes.

  2. sockpuppet 2
    20 September 2014 at 8:00 pm

    Go Kelvin

  3. BLiP 3
    20 September 2014 at 8:38 pm

    ‘

    Why would it not be a good thing for Labour to win this seat? Genuine question.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.1
      20 September 2014 at 8:53 pm

      If Hone wins TTT then we get two left MPs (Hone and Harrè), if KD wins then the left get 1. Essentially, if KD wins TTT it wastes all the votes cast for IMP.

      • weka 3.1.1
        20 September 2014 at 9:04 pm

        Actually if KD wins the left loses a seat. KD’s win won’t give Labour any extra seats.

        Worse, if IMP get something like 1.5% of the vote they would have 2 MPs, but both will be lost if KD wins TTT.

        (there is a funny overhang thing there that I can never work out though).

        • Lanthanide 3.1.1.1
          20 September 2014 at 9:07 pm

          There’s no overhang in play with IMP in this election.

          • weka 3.1.1.1.1
            20 September 2014 at 9:12 pm

            Doesn’t that depend on their party vote?

            • Lanthanide 3.1.1.1.1.1
              20 September 2014 at 10:04 pm

              Yes, and they’d have to be below approx 0.6% for there to be an overhang. They aren’t going to go that low.

              Doesn’t matter at this point since it looks like Hone has lost.

        • Draco T Bastard 3.1.1.2
          20 September 2014 at 9:30 pm

          Actually if KD wins the left loses a seat. KD’s win won’t give Labour any extra seats.

          That’s what I said.

          Hone presently behind by 240 votes.

      • North 3.1.2
        20 September 2014 at 9:17 pm

        Davis Left ? No. Davis Davis.

      • Treetop 3.1.3
        21 September 2014 at 1:44 pm

        A K.D won on the night.

        Shame that MMP was the loser.

  4. Disraeli Gladstone 4
    20 September 2014 at 8:58 pm

    Hone’s lead under 100 votes.

  5. AsleepWhileWalking 5
    20 September 2014 at 9:01 pm

    Hone is ahead by less than 20 votes : (

  6. karol 6
    20 September 2014 at 9:04 pm

    Kelvin Davis just slipped into the lead by a handful of votes.

  7. Disraeli Gladstone 7
    20 September 2014 at 9:04 pm

    Kelvin’s ahead.

    I called this from the start. Fuck Dotcom (and Bomber).

    • weka 7.1
      20 September 2014 at 9:08 pm

      I think you mean fuck Labour.

      And Clinton Dearlove while we’re at it.

      • weka 7.1.1
        20 September 2014 at 9:10 pm

        Also not impressed with TTT voters. What’s the point of giving your party vote to Labour and then not voting Harawira if that costs the left the election?

      • Disraeli Gladstone 7.1.2
        20 September 2014 at 9:11 pm

        I don’t.

        The Internet Party is the plaything of a convicted, sexist, flawed man. It is the Internet Party who has ruined Hone’s vote. It is the Internet Party that scared centrist votes away from the Left bloc.

        I don’t blame Kelvin at all for going full steam to knock out such a flawed experiment for a left-wing politics. I also have met Kelvin and he’s a decent bloke (so is Hone, it’s just a pity he fell for Dotcom’s siren song).

        • weka 7.1.2.1
          20 September 2014 at 9:13 pm

          Harawira’s a grown up, so are the rest of Mana. Can’t blame IP for their decisions.

          “The Internet Party is the plaything of a convicted, sexist, flawed man”

          Presumably you think Harre is too? And the rest of the IP list and workers?

        • weka 7.1.2.2
          20 September 2014 at 9:15 pm

          “I don’t blame Kelvin at all for going full steam to knock out such a flawed experiment for a left-wing politics.”

          Right. So it’s more important to undercut a political party who is on the same basic side rather than win the election. You will never be able to explain the sense in that.

          • politikiwi 7.1.2.2.1
            20 September 2014 at 9:30 pm

            I love how people attack Kim Dotcom rather than the party. Dotcom’s not even in the party, and most of them are cheerleading for Dear Leader John Key who’s an ex Wall Street banker. He’s a guy who literally made a fortune out of the pockets of others.

            • weka 7.1.2.2.1.1
              20 September 2014 at 9:35 pm

              I agree. Attacking KDC is just a smoke screen. However I’m more bothered by the left wingers who attack him than the right. If we believe in MMP, then the IP has a constituency that has a right to be represented in parliament and Labour is letting them down and screwing them over at the same time.

            • Lanthanide 7.1.2.2.1.2
              21 September 2014 at 12:14 am

              “Dotcom’s not even in the party”

              And he’s done an incredibly poor job of showing that. Since the party was founded he’s donated money and then claimed not to be involved in day to day running. Yet he kept showing up day to day in the media with regards to the party. He should have seriously sat on the sidelines and done absolutely nothing throughout the campaign, including tweet about IMP. Of course he’s too much of a megalomaniac to do that.

        • AsleepWhileWalking 7.1.2.3
          20 September 2014 at 9:37 pm

          The Mana party needed funding and it was a good strategy call. It’s not as if Maori are well funded generally.

          If Hone loses then we know what it takes to beat a legend – PM endorsement, and a multiparty strategy to get him out. Hone is too strong to beat otherwise.

          • Disraeli Gladstone 7.1.2.3.1
            21 September 2014 at 12:04 am

            It simply wasn’t good strategy. What I wrote at the time (I’ll have to try and dig it up tomorrow) turned out to be exactly right. Without Dotcom’s money, Mana was on for 2 seats (Hone and Annette). Those seats were almost locked in. But, and I think quite rightly, Maori voters did not have a positive view of the partnership and voted against it and Annette and Hone lost their chances to win.

            Meanwhile, all the fabled money and Internet Party votes completely failed. It got them just under 0.2% more votes.

            I said it wasn’t good strategy at the time and it turns out it really, really wasn’t. There’s a lot to bash Labour with, Hone’s defeat isn’t one of these things. He dug his own grave.

  8. The Lone Haranguer 8
    20 September 2014 at 9:05 pm

    Im still picking Hone to win TTT.

    The $4m spend looks like getting one extra MP into parliament. Colin Craigs $1.5m looks like getting none in, so I guess we could say the large German got better value for his money

  9. weka 9
    20 September 2014 at 9:23 pm

    Bryce Edwards ‏@bryce_edwards 20 mins
    TTT may end up close on the night. Harawira won specials by 14% last time and there were over 2000 of them.

  10. BM 10
    20 September 2014 at 9:25 pm

    Go Kelvin.

    Stuart Nash and Kelvin Davis will be great additions to the NZ political scene.

  11. Melb 11
    20 September 2014 at 9:34 pm

    Mmmmm, the tears of unfathomable sadness.

  12. Dont worry. Be happy 12
    20 September 2014 at 9:37 pm

    Tomorrow we get out of bed and we do what we can with what we’ve got right now. This is no time to sit down and cry. Get up. Work. No time to despair. The sun will come up.

  13. blue leopard 13
    20 September 2014 at 9:58 pm

    😯

  14. Guesting 14
    20 September 2014 at 11:14 pm

    Otoh Peters is it a Kingmaker. Serves him right for asking his supporters to vote KD.

    Hope KD serves his electorate well.

  15. red blooded 15
    20 September 2014 at 11:41 pm

    Good on Kelvin Davis – Labour needs a new generation with vision and charisma. Hone and Mana made a bad call. Sue Bradford was right to walk. A party should be formed from the bottom up, not for the personal convenience of a manipulative kingmaker who uses the political aspirations and beliefs of others to further his personal agenda. I believe there is room on the NZ landscape for an internet party – just not for this version of it. I’m blown away that Key and co have walked away so easily from the Snowden accusations, but they have. Would it have been so easy if the waters hadn’t been muddied by the role of KDC and questions about his motivations?

  16. TheContrarian 16
    21 September 2014 at 12:11 am

    Hone has been punished. End of the experiment.

  17. infused 17
    21 September 2014 at 1:45 am

    Best news of the night

  18. dale 18
    21 September 2014 at 3:58 am

    Its men like Stuart and Kelvin that will make the party strong again. After all its the workers party. They are good strong blokes. We need to man up and take back the power.

    • AsleepWhileWalking 18.1
      21 September 2014 at 6:02 am

      Kelvin needs to play chess, not checkers. It wasn’t so much a loss for Hone but a loss for the left.

      • Tangled_up 18.1.1
        21 September 2014 at 7:21 am

        Nope. Had Hone won; him bringing in one extra MP would have been more than off-set by bringing into Government a party (IP) that drags the left block down.

        If MANA wants to get back then they need to drop the Internet Party for starters.

  19. Murray Olsen 19
    21 September 2014 at 4:13 am

    Davis is carrying on with the good work of his predecessor, Admiral Sealord Jones. We really really needed Mana in parliament. No other party represents the absolutely marginalised of our society, and their numbers will grow.

    • blue leopard 19.1
      21 September 2014 at 4:23 am

      +1000 In the event of the left losing I had thought I could at least celebrate Hone&Laille getting in – that wud hav bin such a win in my eyes. Ouch! the pain of it. Really stunned at that outcome.

  20. North 20
    21 September 2014 at 7:20 am

    Indeed this result stuns. In doffing its cap to the ‘haves’ and turning its back on the ‘have-nots’ New Zealand has licensed the surrender of its sovereignty and the cancer of entrenched inequality. Prepare for a savage strategic redefinition of ‘worthy’ and ‘unworthy’ in the war on the poor.

    • blue leopard 20.1
      21 September 2014 at 1:17 pm

      +1

    • cricko 20.2
      21 September 2014 at 7:08 pm

      It may stun a ‘poor me’ such as yourself.

      War on women. War on the poor.
      Silly concepts that only exist in the minds of losers like you.

      Why not aspire to be a winner ?
      Answer: Losers need an excuse as to why some win and losers can never even try.
      Equality for all has been tried and it failed.
      It was called communism.

      If you have children who inherit your philosophy
      they are doomed to fail.

      • Murray Olsen 20.2.1
        21 September 2014 at 7:49 pm

        Thank you for sharing your simplistic philosophy of life with us. You will never understand why we fight for the world we do. You remind me of the version of Star Trek where they came across a barbarian Enterprise and Spock pretended to be a barbarian. He was successful, but the barbarian ones could not pretend to be civilised.

        Just to make it easy for you, the left are not the barbarians.

        • blue leopard 20.2.1.1
          21 September 2014 at 9:35 pm

          +1 Well said Murray Olsen

          The hostile world view of those on the right never ceases to amaze me.

  21. Commie Mutant Traitor 21
    21 September 2014 at 11:59 am

    It’s worth noting that Hone actually received slightly _more_ votes than he did in on the night in 2011! From 7,139 up to 7,323, with special votes yet to be counted. The big change was a shift from Maori Party to Labour, and an increase in turnout which appears to be mostly NZ First supporters.

    Internet Mana also got a somewhat bigger percentage of the total party vote than Mana alone managed in 2011, and would have gained an additional MP if Hone had kept the electorate. The claim that the alliance with Internet hurt Mana just doesn’t add up; it’s simply a case of the Right voting tactically, and the Left voting stupidly.

    • blue leopard 21.1
      21 September 2014 at 1:33 pm

      Following on from your point re the left voting stupidly, I have to say, after looking over the pivotal electorates , (& unless my maths failed me, it was very late at night!), that is bang on:

      re Peter Dunne’s, Flavell’s & Epsom electorates

      ALL of these electorates had more voting in support of leftwing candidates – had the voters and candidates chosen to unite all these electorates would have been delivered2 a leftwing candidate (or Goldstein).

      As for Hone’s electorate – I don’t think that needs anymore explaining.

      • Murray Olsen 21.1.1
        21 September 2014 at 7:46 pm

        I think the blame here has to go with Labour, who spurned the Greens’ offer of working together.

        • blue leopard 21.1.1.1
          21 September 2014 at 9:53 pm

          I am a bit averse to all this ‘blame Labour’ thing – yes, Labour’s choice was probably an error, however the Greens also chose to go reasonably hostile toward Labour too. (‘That is there problem’…)

          To highlight how it can’t be all Labour’s fault, why the heck didn’t people simply shift their votes to the Greens & IMP? There is something going on within our community that is making it very hard to gain support for left wing principles.

          New Zealanders, ultimately had the choice to concern themselves over people issues and cleaning up the culture of our democracy or be comforted by reassuring lies.

          Yes the political parties made errors, yet I do wonder how one appeals to a country of people who are apparently so very blind to some very fundamental principles on how to keep society & democracy stable.

          There is a very real problem with getting people informed in this way. The right can win on slogans & simplicity of message ‘Allow the elite to make profit and you will eventually benefit’. The left is a more thoughtful approach, however, and is a tad harder to get a simple point across that encapsulates the intent.

          This is made even harder with a hostile media.

          I fail to see how people couldn’t pick up the difference between a right vote & a left one in this election. It was pretty clear that the left were highlighting people issues, (including environment). More jobs, better wages, encouraging education, more inclusive all round. I don’t know how much clearer they could have been. I am not even sure what National were offering other than a type of cult-of-personality-‘trust-me’ type of thing.

          What do you say to the view that people in New Zealand no longer care about one another, and therefore this is why the left are struggling?

          • Murray Olsen 21.1.1.1.1
            22 September 2014 at 2:42 am

            I say there are too many losers like cricko, who have been encouraged by Rogernomics and its successors. They believe that to care about others is a sign of weakness.

            I have hope because this is a learned behaviour. It can be unlearned and different attitudes can develop. They must. TINA.

  22. cricko 22
    21 September 2014 at 9:29 pm

    You quote StarTrek
    Get real.

    If u do have children, why would u give them all the reasons why they should be
    satisfied with failure ?
    Why not try to inspire them ?

    Let me guess.
    Your parents never acheived.
    You never acheived.

    Your sprogs are doomed to expect that same result.

    • Murray Olsen 22.1
      22 September 2014 at 2:36 am

      I never achieved? What’s your world ranking in your profession? What’s your great success besides living vicariously through the rich and famous?

      I’ve inspired more people than you’ve had hot breakfasts.

      You haven’t got a fucking clue.

  23. cricko 23
    21 September 2014 at 9:36 pm

    and guess what.

    The ‘ poor me’ syndrome will never result in a successfull life.

    You cant get it.

    Maybe the future rests in the hands of your sprogs who wake up and reject your poor me loser outlook.

    How can a loser ever win ?

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