Posts Tagged ‘polling’

British politics – hurry up and wait for a general election

Written By: - Date published: 4:58 am, May 21st, 2024 - 16 comments

While I do not pick elections, I think it is safe to make this point. If Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are holding on for a dramatic change in polling numbers, they are unlikely to see this happen. On current polling, even a 7% swing in their favour would not be enough to stop them from losing the election. Labour should not be complacent, but it is increasingly obvious that the voter coalition that helped the Conservatives win in 2019 has collapsed.

Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments

We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments

Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?

Matthew’s Magic Numbers

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 pm, April 15th, 2020 - 43 comments

Matthew Hooton has tweeted a series of numbers. They add up to good news for the Government.

UPDATE: Curia Polling reckons it’s even better for Labour!

The folly of electoral pacts

Written By: - Date published: 2:15 am, November 30th, 2019 - 2 comments

Originally posted  Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred around the issue of Brexit. Early on in the campaign I wrote about Trump’s intervention in the UK election, specifically him calling on The Brexit Party and The Conservatives to do a deal. […]

Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments

In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.

Poll Watch: Reid Research Poll 2018-1-31

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments

Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.

Where and how to vote

Written By: - Date published: 11:37 pm, November 25th, 2011 - Comments Off on Where and how to vote

Regardless of who you decide to vote for, it’s really important that you do exercise your democratic duty to vote. Here’s a link to the Electoral Commission site that gives information on voting booth locations, how to make a vote, the people and parties you can vote for in your area, and answers to any […]

Latest Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 pm, October 13th, 2010 - 103 comments

Nat 49.5%, Lab 36.5%, Gre 8%, NZF 2.5%, MAO 2.5% ACT 0.5%

Highest Labour vote since Helen Clark was PM. Lowest ACT vote in many many years. Key’s still holding the Nats up high.

Supercity: Who’s gonna vote?

Written By: - Date published: 2:30 pm, February 23rd, 2010 - 21 comments

Recent polls highlight how important turnout will be at this year’s local body election.

Sam Cash takes a look at recent history and how attitudes to the supercity and the themes of this election could increase participation.

Farrar’s company, Curia, polls for Family First

Written By: - Date published: 1:32 pm, May 29th, 2008 - 16 comments

I’d thought at the time that it seemed a little odd for David Farrar to pass up a free hit regarding the Family First commissioned study on smacking. The headline in Granny Herald was: “Poll shows we’re still smacking our children”. What an opportunity! Turns out though, that it was Farrar’s company, Curia, that did […]