Written By: nickkelly - Date published: 4:58 am, May 21st, 2024 - 16 comments
While I do not pick elections, I think it is safe to make this point. If Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are holding on for a dramatic change in polling numbers, they are unlikely to see this happen. On current polling, even a 7% swing in their favour would not be enough to stop them from losing the election. Labour should not be complacent, but it is increasingly obvious that the voter coalition that helped the Conservatives win in 2019 has collapsed.
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments
We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
Written By: te reo putake - Date published: 7:15 pm, April 15th, 2020 - 43 comments
Matthew Hooton has tweeted a series of numbers. They add up to good news for the Government.
UPDATE: Curia Polling reckons it’s even better for Labour!
Written By: nickkelly - Date published: 2:15 am, November 30th, 2019 - 2 comments
Originally posted Nick Kelly’s blog One feature of the UK election has been various electoral alliances or deals done. This has mostly occurred around the issue of Brexit. Early on in the campaign I wrote about Trump’s intervention in the UK election, specifically him calling on The Brexit Party and The Conservatives to do a deal. […]
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments
Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.
Written By: the sprout - Date published: 11:37 pm, November 25th, 2011 - Comments Off on Where and how to vote
Regardless of who you decide to vote for, it’s really important that you do exercise your democratic duty to vote. Here’s a link to the Electoral Commission site that gives information on voting booth locations, how to make a vote, the people and parties you can vote for in your area, and answers to any […]
Written By: Michael Foxglove - Date published: 8:17 pm, October 13th, 2010 - 103 comments
Nat 49.5%, Lab 36.5%, Gre 8%, NZF 2.5%, MAO 2.5% ACT 0.5%
Highest Labour vote since Helen Clark was PM. Lowest ACT vote in many many years. Key’s still holding the Nats up high.
Written By: Sam Cash - Date published: 2:30 pm, February 23rd, 2010 - 21 comments
Recent polls highlight how important turnout will be at this year’s local body election.
Sam Cash takes a look at recent history and how attitudes to the supercity and the themes of this election could increase participation.
Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 1:32 pm, May 29th, 2008 - 16 comments
I’d thought at the time that it seemed a little odd for David Farrar to pass up a free hit regarding the Family First commissioned study on smacking. The headline in Granny Herald was: “Poll shows we’re still smacking our children”. What an opportunity! Turns out though, that it was Farrar’s company, Curia, that did […]
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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