Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments
Categories: act, david seymour, elections, greens, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, polls, Shane Jones, winston peters - Tags: , , , , ,

Another day, another poll! So, we can see from the party vote trend here that CB is sharply disagreeing with the other two regular pollsters over what’s going on in this election. My internet access is still spotty for another week, so apologies if there’s any relevant list rankings news missed here!

National says Curia looks a lot more like CB- to me, that actually reinforces that they’re both using phone-only polling and it’s causing them trouble getting their methodology right, but I’m sure there will be other takes as to what’s going on. I don’t think any of the last few polls have been “rogue” looking at this trend, this is a result of differing leans because of differing methodologies, and 2017 was definitely better predicted by the polling methodologies that have Labour trending up and National trending down.

TVNZ gives Collins’ approval as “+27” in their reporting, but also notes that a total of 56% approved and 23% disapproved- making that figure consistent with the way Reid Research reports it (and what I understand a “net approval rating” to mean…) gives her a +33% net approval. This is a useful point of comparison to Reid Research, who had her on +8.7%, as there really should have been minimal positive change to approval or negative change to disapproval  for Collins between the two polls with Collins only making a fool of herself in the meantime, so there’s a definite difference in lean between CB and RR lately, given they have her approves about 16 points higher and her disapproves about 8 lower. As above, given RR was closer to predicting last election and also aligns better with the National/Labour trend from Roy Morgan, I am more inclined to believe it overall on approval rating.

As before, the party vote analysis is full-blown red again for this poll, so I’ll give you how often my random simulations decided the smaller parties were under threshold, as well as the overall trend. 2017 showed a strong NZF trend around this time, and the shape of the race never really turned, and it successfully predicted to result- I would expect at LEAST a significant green chunk to need to show up on our trend again for a coalition government to eventuate in 2020.

The incidence of the smaller incumbent parties going under threshold in this simulation was:
Greens: 51.2% of simulations
NZF: All simulations
ACT: 62.8% of simulations
The Greens should approach 50%, so this is likely an unfriendly simulation run for them, but it’s notable that there wasn’t a single government where Labour required their help within the margin of error here.

Finally, the list analysis. Again, this analysis is based on trying to determine how many electorates won/lost, and I don’t stand by individual seat calls. I’ve tweaked it a little bit, as looking at historical elections where National is behind, they were losing too few electorate seats. The model now assumes about an eleventh of the vote is uninfluenced by the 2017 electorate vote, and that they will vote two ticks for parties whose party votes have improved since 2017. Unrelated to this change, National’s improved party vote in this poll has won them back Northland from Shane Jones in the model, meaning no New Zealand First returning without a sharp change of fortune.

These party vote results give us electorate totals of:

ACT: 1
Labour: 39
National: 32

And thus the following Parliament:

I predict that if the election were held over this poll’s field period, we’d see the following MPs delivered in on the National list: (assuming it mirrors their caucus rankings)

3 Paul Goldsmith
7 Chris Bishop
12 Michael Woodhouse
13 Nicola Willis
16 Melissa Lee
18 Nick Smith
19 Alfred Ngaro
21 Harete Hipango
24 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi

It also loses them the following incumbents:

28 Lawrence Yule
29 Denise Lee
30 Parmjeet Parmar
31 Brett Hudson
34 Jo Hayes
39 Maureen Pugh
41 Agnes Loheni
42 Paulo Garcia

In from the Labour list would be: (no incumbents predicted to lose seats)

7 Andrew Little
9 David Parker
11  Trevor Mallard
15  Kris Faafoi
17  Ayesha Verrall
19  Willie Jackson
20  Aupito William Sio
22  Vanushi Walters
27  Louisa Wall
30  Camilla Belich
32  Jan Tinetti
34  Marja Lubeck
35  Angie Warren-Clark
36  Willow-Jean Prime
38  Naisi Chen
39  Jo Luxton
40  Jamie Strange
41  Liz Craig
42  Ibrahim Omer
43  Duncan Webb
44  Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki
46  Rachel Brooking
50  Angela Roberts
51  Shanan Halbert
54  Lemauga Lydia Sosene
56  Dan Rosewarne
60  Soraya Peke-Mason
61  Lotu Fuli

New Labour Electorate Winners:

25  Kiri Allan
26  Kieran McAnulty
31  Priyanca Radhakrishnan
45  Ginny Andersen
48  Helen White
52  Neru Leavasa
55  Steph Lewis
57  Rachel Boyack
Anna Lorck

And on the Greens’ list, this would give us:

1 Marama Davidson In
2 James Shaw In
3 Chlöe Swarbrick In
4 Julie Anne Genter In
5 Jan Logie In
6 Eugenie Sage In
7 Golriz Ghahraman Out

Will provide ACT’s expected list MPs when I get my hands on their party list, but I assume there are 5 friends of David Seymour, whether or not one of them is also named David Seymour.

54 comments on “Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30 ”

  1. Craig H 2

    Duncan Webb is highly likely to retain Christchurch Central (he beat a sitting minister last time and it's historically a Labour seat), so probably won't need to come in on the list.

    That minor point aside, I always like your work, thank you for putting these together.

    • Anthony Rimell 2.1

      Agree with this point.

      Also, I assume that in your assessment the change of Labour candidate in Port Hills (now to be Banks Pensinsula) from Ruth Dyson (who is retiring) to Tracey McLlellan is viewed by you as 'no change'? This is a 'correct' assessment as not a gain, but a little bit misleading.

      Is there a way of capturing this, or am I focusing too much on the trees and so missing the wood?

      • Craig H 2.1.1

        Ruth and Tracey don't appear on either list, so I guess we mentally remove Duncan from the likely list candidates, but figure Tracey is being elected either way on current polling. That said, on current polling, likely Labour electorate MPs are all high enough on the list that it doesn't make any difference.

  2. Dennis Frank 3

    I heard the One News political editor mention that the CB poll had 14% undecided. That suggests more volatility than the RR poll (someone wrote here that had 6 or 7% undecided). So best to assume that different polling methodologies is just part of the explanation for different results from polling companies.

    A large pool of voters who are likely to shift their preference from week to week make campaigning a chore for planners. Manufacturing good news or propaganda then becomes a weekly task for the diligent schemers.

    I think we can safely say that the Greens's decision to pitch their economic policy to the poor has failed. No sign of the missing million thinking "Cool, finally we have a political party serious about representing us. Let's vote for them!". If that was a realistic prospect the Greens would have lifted at least a point or two.

    • Sacha 3.1

      Reducing poverty is important not only to poor people.

    • woodart 3.2

      no dennis, we can safely say that people who assume things like you have, mostly are proven wrong.

      • Dennis Frank 3.2.1

        Well, I wrote here yesterday that I expected the Greens to arrive at 9% in the election, so I'm as much optimist as realist, eh? If that happens, you'll be proven right about the assumption. Could be the poor don't get asked their opinion by pollsters, eh? Or if asked, they decline to respond due to lack of civic motivation.

        • left_forward 3.2.1.1

          But you think that achieving this 9% is more important than the principle of equity?

          • Dennis Frank 3.2.1.1.1

            No, I agree that equity is essential. That particular provision they designed, I'm unconvinced is fit for purpose. But hey, I'm no leftist. Let the market decide…

        • novacastrian 3.2.1.2

          Don't worry about it too much Dennis, there are those of us on this site who are sufficiently balanced, and indeed have the intellect to identify as you have, that the Greens along with NZ First are both political Road-Kill.

          The whole tax is love dogma was the final nail in their coffin.

          You did identify the elephant in the room though, the silent 14%. This could be a real wildcard come election night.

          Labour will win the election in their own right, but not by a landslide, yet a healthy margin of perhaps 5-6 seats.

          • observer 3.2.1.2.1

            You have the intellect? Well done.

            But "Greens are road-kill" is not based on polls, or precedent, or analysis of voter behaviour (e.g. how MMP voters react when a party is predicted to govern alone).

            What is it based on?

    • Bearded Git 3.3

      I don't think people have the phone on the hook re policies at the moment….in another 5 weeks time when advanced voting starts they will have noticed the Greens policy.

      The Greens don't "pitch" their policies….it is what they believe in as the only truly progressive party in NZ.

    • Stuart Munro 3.4

      It's likely more a reflection of their performance in government. Probably mostly due to NZF queering the pitch (Though it was Parker who apparently sabotaged the freshwater reform), the Greens have few credible claims to present to their constituency beyond what they would have achieved from opposition.

      Their social policy stance is actually pretty sound – the problem is getting it past coalition partners. And if you can't get policy implemented, it is, however attractive, meaningless.

    • swordfish 3.5

      I heard the One News political editor mention that the CB poll had 14% undecided. That suggests more volatility than the RR poll (someone wrote here that had 6 or 7% undecided).

      Not all that much volatility:

      Colmar Brunton (Undecideds + Refused)

      Last 6 Polls: … 18% … 17% … 17% … 16% … 15% … 14%

      (Or just Undecideds)

      Last 6 Polls: … 14% … 13% … 13% … 11% … 10% … 10%

      And bear in mind, these are generally hardcore Undecideds, most staying home on Election Day. Pundits tend to overrate their importance.

      • Craig H 3.5.1

        My basic theory on it is that undecideds tend toward Winston (stick it to the Man!) and away from the Greens, but other than that, have a limited impact.

  3. Brendan 4

    All the more reason to consider voting Green if you are a left leaning voter. A strong progressive coalition.

  4. Dawn Trenberth 5

    Aupito William Sio has the safe seat of Mangere so wont be coming in on the list. Also Romy Udanga is a sitting mp and number 70 on the list so likely will not be back.

  5. Gosman 6

    I'll help you out with the ACT list

    1 David Seymour In

    2 Brooke van Velden In

    3 Nicole McKee In

    4 Chris Baillie In

    5 Simon Court In

    6 James McDowall In

  6. Gosman 7

    Given how ACT has performed to date in the campaign I would expect it to get between 5 and 7 % on the night

    • Sacha 7.1

      A lot of gun buyback money to help with their campaign expenses this time too.

    • Tricledrown 7.2

      Considering they are cannibalizing National voters because of their dumbarse and despicable behaviour.

      National will need to keep their powder dry no more misteps or scandals till voting day .ACT will drop back.

      National will have to appeal to the hard right ,conspiracy theorist's etc.at the same time trying to appeal to centrists.

      Seymour's cancelling the $25 welfare top up doesn't do National any favors especially in the middle of a global financial meltdown.Stupid idea even Boris Johnston reckons it's better to bailout mainstreet than Wall St.

      You would think Seymour would cancell the $60 billion bank bailout.No he wants to go after the poorest who spend in the economy and not speculate like the banks encourage.

      • Gosman 7.2.1

        Incorrect. They are getting votes from NZ First before National. National tends to be losing supporters to Labour

    • woodart 7.3

      in a roundabout way I hope you are correct gosman. that many actoids in parliament will really shine a light on their lack of depth, and general foolishness. and seymour would spend most of his time putting out fires.

      • observer 7.3.1

        "Seymour would spend most of his time putting out fires".

        Roger Douglas was an ACT MP (often forgotten). Before 2008 Key had to explicitly rule out having Douglas in his (future) government, because Roger was so toxic to potential Nat/swing voters.

        The next National leader will spend a lot of time being asked "Do you rule out this fringe person or proposal from ACT?". Should be fun.

        • Sacha 7.3.1.1

          Could ratchet up tension between the shooting and moderate factions in the Nats. Bring it on.

        • woodart 7.3.1.2

          yes, wonder if the media would put as much effort into trying to divide act and nats as they have with nzfirst and labour?

    • I agree with your guess Gosman, but not the reasoning.

      ACT's best ever results came when Labour won power (1999 and 2002). In both elections, it was reasonably clear that National were either going to need help to form a Government or were simply not going to make it at all.

      My read is that a small, but politically aware portion of Nat voters chose ACT as a safeguard. That's what's happening now; some Nats are going to vote ACT because they've nothing to lose.

      Having said that, I did refer to Rimmer as the leader of the opposition in the CB poll post. To be fair to him, he's done a pretty good job. Of course, that's far easier to achieve when you have a united caucus 😉

      • Gosman 7.4.1

        I can tell you that while ACT is getting some support from ex-National supporters they are gaining potential voters from across the divide but mainly ex-NZ First at this stage.

        • observer 7.4.1.1

          You've said this a few times, and I agree it's very plausible (given ACT's recent positioning) but do you have any evidence?

        • te reo putake 7.4.1.2

          I can't see that happening, Gosman. There aren't enough NZ First voters to make a significant difference to ACT's vote and most NZF folk are socially conservative, not libertarian. I'd see them as more likely to go with the various nutter parties that have popped up in recent times than an urban elitist outfit like ACT.

          • McFlock 7.4.1.2.1

            In 2017, a quarter of NZ1 party voters split vote to Rimmer (30% voted for the NZ1 candidate). 19% of NZ1 voters voted for the nat candidate.

            Assuming the ones voting for Goldsmith were rationally trying to nobble the cup of tea and the ones voting for Rimmer were trying to get a right-wing govt (nat/nz1/act), there's a certain amount of play in one of the more well-to-do right wing electorates. But if a quarter is all act can get from the urban elites, not sure how much of the overall party vote it would gain from an NZ1 implosion.

          • Maurice 7.4.1.2.2

            For an "urban elitist outfit" Seymour is gaining considerable traction with the farming community – especially on his (and the Party President's) forays into Southern regions. They are not called the 'squatocracy' down there for nothing … and are every bit as elitist as their urban counter-parts. The amount of money and support for ACT the inclusion of fifteen Licenced firearms owners in ACT's Party List (and Nicole McKee there as #3) has made available shows just how seriously Seymour is taking these demographics.

            I believe there are going to be some surprises at the scope and size of the Act Party Vote

          • Uncle Scrim 7.4.1.2.3

            Yes I'd have thought a lot of NZF voters would be strongly opposed to euthanasia (and cannabis of course), so I wouldn't think they'd embrace Seymour, who has built quite a bit of his profile on the End of Life Choice issue. To be fair, ACT are probably benefiting from looking more competent and stable than National – a low bar to be sure.

            The more interesting question is what will National try to do to win back voters from ACT?

        • Drowsy M. Kram 7.4.1.3

          Without the National party's Epsom electorate ‘lifeline‘, ACT would have ‘perished‘ years ago. Come September, will some National party MPs have cause to regret that lifeline?

        • woodart 7.4.1.4

          doing a gosman here. prove your claims..are you hanging out in phone booths i.e. act party meetings, and actually asking new faces where they are from, or are you guessing gossy

        • woodart 7.4.1.5

          evidence?

        • Grafton Gully 7.4.1.6

          Hey Gosman, do you know of any data that the Green's Wealth Tax is deterring potential Green voters ? If so please share. Thanks !!!

          • Binders full of women 7.4.1.6.1

            That data will be confirmed or not after the September election. Usually it is the poor who hate greens and rich who love them. (party votes 300! In Mangere vs 4..5..thousand in Devonport and Khandallah). How will the 2% on 2 mil deter the leafy-suburb greens?

  7. Uncle Scrim 8

    After 24 years of MMP elections it's remarkable that we are likely to get a Parliament much more akin to the FPTP years. At the 2005 and 2011 elections 8 parties were elected to Parliament. This time it looks like 4 max.

    • Scott 8.1

      Think you're right and think it's down to MMP having reached a level of maturity that means it no longer does what it was asked to do.

      Would like to see the system evolve.

      Would prefer to see a system that has multiple mps within electorates that enables more mps from minor parties into parliament

  8. RedBaronCV 9

    Well if I was writing the slogans :

    Vote ACT get guns

    Vote National get covid

    Vote Labour get fairness

    Vote Greens lose global warming

    Thanks for the work in your post. Will use it to reassure the younger crowd who fear Judith

    And does this mean Nick Smith is toast? Do we have the Nact list yet or are they holding back – because on current polling most candidates would be better not campaigning but hanging on to their day job. Actually the thought of National not really bothering to campaign in a lot of electorates cheers me up.

    • Chris T 9.1

      "Vote ACT get guns

      Vote National get covid

      Vote Labour get fairness

      Vote Greens lose global warming"

      Lol Ffs

      • xanthe 9.1.1

        Vote ACT get guns

        Vote National get covid

        Vote Greens get racism

        Vote Labour get Jacinda

        fairly easy decision !

        • The Al1en 9.1.1.1

          Vote Greens get racism

          How so?

        • Chris T 9.1.1.2

          I'd go with

          Vote ACT get the only MP that has done anything in the last 3 years, but wouldn't vote for them.

          Vote National get nothing particularly inspiring

          Vote Greens get nothing, because they don't understand they have power.and are getting a bit pointless

          Vote Labour get a figurehead and broken promises

          Vote NZF get someone who just bloxks the figureheads stuff

  9. observer 10

    A useful summary here by David Cormack (usually paywalled, but not currently):

    https://www.patreon.com/posts/39896413

    A reminder that the 2017 comparisons, often made in media commentary, are simply wrong. Labour in 2017 had a lot of opposition votes available to harvest. National 2020 have to get their (intended) votes directly from the government.

  10. Riff.s 11

    It is fair to say that when Ardern became leader of the labour party she had one job: convince the Greens to support a Labour – New Zealand First coalition. The numbers were there.

    What the media called Jacindamania was basically Labour regaining its historical support that had been lost to the Greens and New Zealand First during the years of insipid leadership from Goff, Cunliffe, Shearer, and Little. Not until Covid did Ardern gain support at the expense of National.

    Collins has a far greater mountain to climb and she has to do it against a more popular opponent. This is not 2017.

  11. Binders full of women 12

    Kiri Allen? To win? That will be interesting, she's worked really hard on the ground but Tolley had a decent majority. Tolleys out and Tania Tapsell is running.

  12. DS 13

    Obvious point, again: if Labour is winning the party vote 53%-32%, it is winning more than 39 electorates.

    Unless you are expecting absolutely insane levels of split voting, that sort of margin (a 14% swing from National to Labour, the biggest since 1935) would knock National under 20 electorate MPs.

  13. Maurice 14

    As the Left Wing and Right Wing battle – perhaps someone with two wings will emerge and fly straight through the middle?

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    Last night began earlier than usual. In bed by 6:30pm, asleep an hour later. Sometimes I do sleep odd hours, writing late and/or getting up very early - complemented with the occasional siesta, but I’m usually up a bit later than that on a Saturday night. Last night I was ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Pressing the Big Red Button
    Early in the COVID-19 days, the Boris Johnson government pressed a Big Red Button marked: act immediately, never mind about the paperwork.Their problem was: not having enough PPE gear for all the hospital and emergency staff. Their solution was to expedite things and get them the gear ASAP.This, along with ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Of Pensioners and Student Loans: An Indictment on New Zealand
    Up until 1989, you could attend a New Zealand University, and never need to pay a cent for your education. That then changed, of course. The sadists of the Fourth Labour Government introduced substantial fees for study, never having had to pay a cent for their own education. The even ...
    3 days ago
  • Putting children first
    Ele Ludemann writes –  Minister for Children Karen Chhour is putting children first: Hon KAREN CHHOUR: I move, That the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill be now read a first time. I nominate the Social Services and Community Committee to consider the bill. It’s a privilege ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Te Pati Maori go personal
    David Farrar writes –  Newshub reports:    Applause and cheers erupted in the House on Wednesday afternoon as Children’s Minister Karen Chhour condemned Te Pāti Māori’s insults about her upbringing. Chhour, who grew up in state care, is repealing section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act – sparking uproar from ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Threads of Corruption
    I could corrupt youIt would be uglyThey could sedate youBut what good would drugs be?Good Morning all,Today there’s a guest newsletter from Gerard Otto (G). By which I mean I read his post this morning and he has kindly allowed me to share it with you.If you don’t already I ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • The days fly by
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Aotearoa, you’re being dismantled… so take the blinkers off and start talking honestly about it.
    Is the solution to any of the serious, long term issues we all have to face as a nation, because many governments of all stripes we can probably all admit if we’re deeply truthful with ourselves haven’t done near enough work at the very times they should have, to basically ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    4 days ago
  • Has Labour Abandoned the Welfare State They Created in 1938?
    The 2018 Social Security Act suggests that Labour may have retreated to the minimalist (neo-liberal) welfare state which has developed out of the Richardson-Shipley ‘redesign’. One wonders what Michael Joseph Savage, Peter Fraser and Walter Nash would have thought of the Social Security Act passed by the Ardern Labour Government ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: MPs’ financial interests under scrutiny
    MPs are supposed to serve the public interest, not their own self-interest. And according to the New Zealand Parliament’s website, democracy and integrity are tarnished whenever politicians seek to enrich themselves or the people they are connected with. For this reason, the Parliament has a “Register of Pecuniary Interests” in ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Mastering FLICC – A Cranky Uncle themed quiz
    By now, most of you will have heard about the FLICC taxonomy of science denial techniques and how you can train your skills in detecting them with the Cranky Uncle game. If you like to quickly check how good you are at this already, answer the 12 quiz questions in the ...
    4 days ago
  • Shane Jones has the zeal, sure enough, but is too busy with his mining duties (we suspect) to be ava...
    Buzz from the Beehive The hacks of the Parliamentary Press Gallery have been able to chip into a rich vein of material on the government’s official website over the past 24 hours. Among the nuggets is the speech by Regional Development Minister Shane Jones and a press statement to announce ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • Cut the parliamentary term
    When Labour was in power, they wasted time, political capital, and scarce policy resources on trying to extend the parliamentary term to four years, in an effort to make themselves less accountable to us. It was unlikely to fly, the idea having previously lost two referendums by huge margins - ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • More terrible media ethics
    David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: When Whanau Ora chief executive John Tamihere was asked what his expectations for the Budget next Thursday were, he said: “All hope is lost.” Last year Whānau Ora was allocated $163.1 million in the Budget to last for the next four years ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bringing our democracy into disrepute
    On Monday the government introduced its racist bill to eliminate Māori represntation in local government to the House. They rammed it through its first reading yesterday, and sent it to select committee. And the select committee has just opened submissions, giving us until Wednesday to comment on it. Such a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • The censors who’ll save us from ourselves… yeah right!
    Nick Hanne writes – There’s a common malady suffered by bureaucracies the world over. They wish to save us from ourselves. Sadly, NZ officials are no less prone to exhibiting symptoms of this occupational condition. Observe, for instance, the reaction from certain public figures to the news ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The case for commissioners to govern the capital city
    Peter Dunne writes – As the city of Tauranga prepares to elect a new Mayor and Council after three and a half years being run by government-appointed Commissioners, the case for replacing the Wellington City Council with Commissioners strengthens. The Wellington City Council has been dysfunctional for years, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Thoughts about contemporary troubles.
    This will be s short post. It stems from observations I made elsewhere about what might be characterised as some macro and micro aspects of contemporary collective violence events. Here goes. The conflicts between Israel and Palestine and France and … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On Blurring The Lines Around Political Corruption
    It may be a relic of a previous era of egalitarianism, but many of us like to think that, in general, most New Zealanders are as honest as the day is long. We’re good like that, and smart as. If we’re not punching above our weight on the world stage, ...
    4 days ago
  • MPs own 2.2 houses on average
    Bryce Edwards writes – Why aren’t politicians taking more action on the housing affordability crisis? The answer might lie in the latest “Register of Pecuniary Interests.” This register contains details of the various financial interests of parliamentarians. It shows that politicians own real estate in significant numbers. The ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • King Mike & Mike King.
    I built a time machine to see you againTo hear your phone callYour voice down the hallThe way we were back thenWe were dancing in the rainOur feet on the pavementYou said I was your second headI knew exactly what you meantIn the country of the blind, or so they ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: MPs own 2.2 houses on average
    Why aren’t politicians taking more action on the housing affordability crisis? The answer might lie in the latest “Register of Pecuniary Interests.” This register contains details of the various financial interests of parliamentarians. It shows that politicians own real estate in significant numbers. The register published on Tuesday contains a ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • How much climate reality can the global financial system take without collapsing?
    Microsoft’s transparency about its failure to meet its own net-zero goals is creditable, but the response to that failure is worrying. It is offering up a set of false solutions, heavily buttressed by baseless optimism. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 24-May-2024
    Another Friday, another Rāmere Roundup! Here are a few things that caught our eye this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday, our new writer Connor Sharp roared into print with a future-focused take on the proposed Auckland Future Fund, and what it could invest in. On ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • Earning The Huia Feather.
    Still Waiting: Māori land remains in the hands of Non-Māori. The broken promises of the Treaty remain broken. The mana of the tangata whenua languishes under racist neglect. The right to wear the huia feather remains as elusive as ever. Perhaps these three transformations are beyond the power of a ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Friday, May 24
    Posters opposing the proposed Fast-Track Approvals legislation were pasted around Wellington last week. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: One of the architects of the RMA and a former National Cabinet Minister, Simon Upton, has criticised the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals bill as potentially disastrous for the environment, arguing just 1% ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to May 24
    There was less sharing of the joy this week than at the Chinese New Year celebrations in February. China’s ambassador to NZ (2nd from right above) has told Luxon that relations between China and New Zealand are now at a ‘critical juncture’ Photo: Getty / Xinhua News AgencyTL;DR: The podcast ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Beijing troubleshooter’s surprise visit
    The importance of New Zealand’s relationship with China was surely demonstrated yesterday with the surprise arrival in the capital of top Chinese foreign policy official Liu Jianchao. The trip was apparently organized a week ago but kept secret. Liu is the Minister of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) International Liaison ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • UK election a foregone conclusion?  That’s why it’s interesting
    With a crushing 20-plus point lead in the opinion polls, all the signs are that Labour leader Keir Starmer will be the PM after the general election on 4 July, called by Conservative incumbent Rishi Sunak yesterday. The stars are aligned for Starmer.  Rival progressives are in abeyance: the Liberal-Democrat ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2021
    Open access notables How much storage do we need in a fully electrified future? A critical review of the assumptions on which this question depends, Marsden et al., Energy Research & Social Science: Our analysis advances the argument that current approaches reproduce interpretations of normality that are, ironically, rooted in ...
    5 days ago
  • Days in the life
    We returned last week from England to London. Two different worlds. A quarter of an hour before dropping off our car, we came to a complete stop on the M25. Just moments before, there had been six lanes of hurtling cars and lorries. Now, everything was at a standstill as ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Forget about its name and focus on its objective – this RMA reform bill aims to cut red tape (and ...
    Buzz from the Beehive A triumvirate of ministers – holding the Agriculture, Environment and RMA Reform portfolios – has announced the introduction of legislation “to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling development in key sectors”, such as farming, mining and other primary industries. The exact name of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • More National corruption
    In their coalition agreement with NZ First, the National Party agreed to provide $24 million in funding to the charity "I Am Hope / Gumboot Friday". Why were they so eager to do so? Because their chair was a National donor, their CEO was the son of a National MP ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Submit!
    The Social Services and Community Committee has called for submissions on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. Submissions are due by Wednesday, 3 July 2024, and can be made at the link above. And if you're wondering what to say: section 7AA was enacted because Oranga Tamariki ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Reading the MPS numbers thinking about the fiscal situation
    Michael Reddell writes –  The Reserve Bank doesn’t do independent fiscal forecasts so there is no news in the fiscal numbers in today’s Monetary Policy Statement themselves. The last official Treasury forecasts don’t take account of whatever the government is planning in next week’s Budget, and as the Bank notes ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Charter Schools are a worthwhile addition to our school system – but ACT is mis-selling why they a...
    Rob MacCulloch writes – We know the old saying, “Never trust a politician”, and the Charter School debate is a good example of it. Charter Schools receive public funding, yet “are exempt from most statutory requirements of traditional public schools, including mandates around .. human capital management .. curriculum ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Paranoia On The Left.
    How Do We Silence Them? The ruling obsession of the contemporary Left is that political action undertaken by individuals or groups further to the right than the liberal wings of mainstream conservative parties should not only be condemned, but suppressed.WEB OF CHAOS, a “deep dive into the world of disinformation”, ...
    5 days ago
  • Budget challenges
    Muriel Newman writes –  As the new Government puts the finishing touches to this month’s Budget, they will undoubtedly have had their hands full dealing with the economic mess that Labour created. Not only was Labour a grossly incompetent manager of the economy, but they also set out ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Rishi calls an Election.
    Today the British PM, Rishi Sunak, called a general election for the 4th of July. He spoke of the challenging times and of strong leadership and achievements. It was as if he was talking about someone else, a real leader, rather than he himself or the woeful list of Tory ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Photo of the Day: GNR
    This post marks the return of an old format: Photo of the Day. Recently I was in an apartment in one of those new buildings on Great North Road Grey Lynn at rush hour, perfect day, the view was stunning, so naturally I whipped out my phone: GNR 5pm Turns ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • Choosing landlords and the homeless over first home buyers
    The Government may struggle with the political optics of scrapping assistance for first home buyers while also cutting the tax burden on landlords, increasing concerns over the growing generational divide. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government confirmed it will dump first home buyer grants in the Budget next ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Orr’s warning; three years of austerity
    Yesterday, the Reserve Bank confirmed there will be no free card for the economy to get out of jail during the current term of the Government. Regardless of what the Budget next week says, we are in for three years of austerity. Over those three years, we will have to ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • An admirable U-turn
    It doesn’t inspire confidence when politicians change their minds.  But you must give credit when a bad idea is dropped. Last year, we reported on the determination of British PM Rishi Sunak to lead the world in regulating the dangers of Artificial Intelligence. Perhaps he changed his mind after meeting ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago
  • Climate Adam: Can we really suck up Carbon Dioxide?
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Is carbon dioxide removal - aka "negative emissions" - going to save us from climate change? Or is it just a ...
    6 days ago
  • Public funding for private operators in mental health and housing – and a Bill to erase a bit of t...
    Headed for the legislative wastepaper basket…    Buzz from the Beehive It looks like this government is just as ready as its predecessor to dip into the public funds it is managing to dispense millions of dollars to finance – and favour – the parties it fancies. Or ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why has Einstein Medalist Roy Kerr never been Knighted?
    Rob MacCulloch writes – National and Labour and ACT have at various times waxed on about their “vision” of NZ as a high value-added world tech center What subject is tech based upon? Mathematics. A Chicago mathematician just told me that whereas last decade ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Contestable advice
    Eric Crampton writes –  Danyl McLauchlan over at The Listener on the recent shift toward more contestability in public policy advice in education: Education Minister Erica Stanford, one of National’s highest-ranked MPs, is trying to circumvent the establishment, taking advice from a smaller pool of experts – ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • How did it get so bad?
    Ele Ludemann writes – That Kāinga Ora is a mess is no surprise, but the size of the mess is. There have been many reports of unruly tenants given licence to terrorise neighbours, properties bought and left vacant, and the state agency paying above market rates in competition ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • How serious is an MP’s failure to declare $178k in donations?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  It’s being explained as an “inadvertent error”. However, National MP David MacLeod’s excuse for failing to disclose $178,000 in donations for his election campaign last year is not necessarily enough to prevent some serious consequences. A Police investigation is now likely, and the result ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the privatising of state housing provision, by stealth
    The scathing “independent” review of Kāinga Ora barely hit the table before the coalition government had acted on it. The entire Kāinga Ora board will be replaced, and a new chair (Simon Moutter) has been announced. Hmm. No aspersions on Bill English, but the public would have had more confidence ...
    6 days ago

  • Government to consult on regulation of shooting clubs and ranges
      The Government is consulting New Zealanders on a package of proposals for simple and effective regulation of shooting clubs and ranges, Associate Minister of Justice, Nicole McKee announced today.   “Clubs and ranges are not only important for people learning to operate firearms safely, to practice, and to compete, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Successful New Caledonia repatriation winds up, need for dialogue remains
    Over 300 people have been successfully flown out of New Caledonia in a joint Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) and New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) operation.   As of today, seven New Zealand government aircraft flights to Nouméa have assisted around 225 New Zealanders and 145 foreign nationals ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Minister to Singapore for defence, technology talks
    Defence and Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins departs for Singapore tomorrow for defence and technology summits and meetings. First up is the Asia Tech X Singapore Summit, followed by the Five Power Defence Arrangements Defence Ministers Meeting and wrapping up with the Shangri-La Dialogue for Defence Ministers from ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Major investment in teacher supply through Budget 24
    Over the next four years, Budget 24 will support the training and recruitment of 1,500 teachers into the workforce, Education Minister Erica Stanford announced today. “To raise achievement and develop a world leading education system we’re investing nearly $53 million over four years to attract, train and retain our valued ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Joint statement on the New Zealand – Cook Islands Joint Ministerial Forum – 2024
    1.  New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters; Minister of Health and Minister for Pacific Peoples Hon Dr Shane Reti; and Minister for Climate Change Hon Simon Watts hosted Cook Islands Minister of Foreign Affairs and Immigration Hon Tingika Elikana and Minister of Health Hon Vainetutai Rose Toki-Brown on 24 May ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Middle East, Africa deployments extended
    The Government has approved two-year extensions for four New Zealand Defence Force deployments to the Middle East and Africa, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today. “These deployments are long-standing New Zealand commitments, which reflect our ongoing interest in promoting peace and stability, and making active ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change Commission Chair to retire
    The Climate Change Commission Chair, Dr Rod Carr, has confirmed his plans to retire at the end of his term later this year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Prior to the election, Dr Carr advised me he would be retiring when his term concluded. Dr Rod Carr has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Inaugural Board of Integrity Sport & Recreation Commission announced
    Nine highly respected experts have been appointed to the inaugural board of the new Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission, Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission is a new independent Crown entity which was established under the Integrity Sport and Recreation Act last year, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • A balanced Foreign Affairs budget
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters confirmed today that Vote Foreign Affairs in Budget 2024 will balance two crucial priorities of the Coalition Government.    While Budget 2024 reflects the constrained fiscal environment, the Government also recognises the critical role MFAT plays in keeping New Zealanders safe and prosperous.    “Consistent with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New social housing places to support families into homes
    New social housing funding in Budget 2024 will ensure the Government can continue supporting more families into warm, dry homes from July 2025, Housing Ministers Chris Bishop and Tama Potaka say. “Earlier this week I was proud to announce that Budget 2024 allocates $140 million to fund 1,500 new social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand’s minerals future
    Introduction Today, we are sharing a red-letter occasion. A Blackball event on hallowed ground. Today  we underscore the importance of our mineral estate. A reminder that our natural resource sector has much to offer.  Such a contribution will not come to pass without investment.  However, more than money is needed. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government sets out vision for minerals future
    Increasing national and regional prosperity, providing the minerals needed for new technology and the clean energy transition, and doubling the value of minerals exports are the bold aims of the Government’s vision for the minerals sector. Resources Minister Shane Jones today launched a draft strategy for the minerals sector in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government progresses Māori wards legislation
    The coalition Government’s legislation to restore the rights of communities to determine whether to introduce Māori wards has passed its first reading in Parliament, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Divisive changes introduced by the previous government denied local communities the ability to determine whether to establish Māori wards.” The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • First RMA amendment Bill introduced to Parliament
    The coalition Government has today introduced legislation to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling some of New Zealand’s key sectors, including farming, mining and other primary industries. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop says the Government is committed to  unlocking development and investment while ensuring the environment is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government welcomes EPA decision
    The decision by Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to approve the continued use of hydrogen cyanamide, known as Hi-Cane, has been welcomed by Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay.  “The EPA decision introduces appropriate environmental safeguards which will allow kiwifruit and other growers to use Hi-Cane responsibly,” Ms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech to Employers and Manufacturers Association: Relief for today, hope for tomorrow
    Kia ora, Ngā mihi nui ki a koutou kātoa Tāmaki Herenga Waka, Tāmaki Herenga tangata Ngā mihi ki ngā mana whenua o tēnei rohe Ngāti Whātua ō Ōrākei me nga iwi kātoa kua tae mai. Mauriora. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the EMA for hosting this event. Let me acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government invests in 1,500 more social homes
    The coalition Government is investing in social housing for New Zealanders who are most in need of a warm dry home, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. Budget 2024 will allocate $140 million in new funding for 1,500 new social housing places to be provided by Community Housing Providers (CHPs), not ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • $24 million boost for Gumboot Friday
    Thousands more young New Zealanders will have better access to mental health services as the Government delivers on its commitment to fund the Gumboot Friday initiative, says Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey.  “Budget 2024 will provide $24 million over four years to contract the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill passes first reading
    The Coalition Government’s Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill, which will improve tenancy laws and help increase the supply of rental properties, has passed its first reading in Parliament says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The Bill proposes much-needed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 that will remove barriers to increasing private ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Montecassino Commemorative Address, Cassino War Cemetery
    Standing here in Cassino War Cemetery, among the graves looking up at the beautiful Abbey of Montecassino, it is hard to imagine the utter devastation left behind by the battles which ended here in May 1944. Hundreds of thousands of shells and bombs of every description left nothing but piled ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • First Reading – Repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989
    I present a legislative statement on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill Mr. Speaker, I move that the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill be now read a first time. I nominate the Social Services and Community Committee to consider the Bill. Thank you, Mr. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • First reading of 7AA’s repeal: progress for children
    The Bill to repeal Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has had its first reading in Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the care and safety of children in care, says Minister for Children Karen Chhour.  “When I became the Minister for Children, I made ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • China Business Summit 2024
    Kia ora koutou, good morning, and zao shang hao. Thank you Fran for the opportunity to speak at the 2024 China Business Summit – it’s great to be here today. I’d also like to acknowledge: Simon Bridges - CEO of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce. His Excellency Ambassador - Wang ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Assisted depatures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.    “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Assisted departures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.  “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing them ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government to rollout roadside drug testing
    The Coalition Government will introduce legislation this year that will enable roadside drug testing as part of our commitment to improve road safety and restore law and order, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Alcohol and drugs are the number one contributing factor in fatal road crashes in New Zealand. In ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister responds to review of Kāinga Ora
    The Government has announced a series of immediate actions in response to the independent review of Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “Kāinga Ora is a large and important Crown entity, with assets of $45 billion and over $2.5 billion of expenditure each year. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour is pleased that Pseudoephedrine can now be purchased by the general public to protect them from winter illness, after the coalition government worked swiftly to change the law and oversaw a fast approval process by Medsafe. “Pharmacies are now putting the medicines back on their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand-China Business Summit
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Da jia hao.  Good morning everyone.   Prime Minister Luxon, your excellency, a great friend of New Zealand and my friend Ambassador Wang, Mayor of what he tells me is the best city in New Zealand, Wayne Brown, the highly respected Fran O’Sullivan, Champion of the Auckland business ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New measures to protect powerlines from trees
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events.  “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani win top Māori dairy farming award
    Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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