web analytics

Matthew’s Magic Numbers

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 pm, April 15th, 2020 - 43 comments
Categories: act, class war, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, national, nz first, Politics, Shane Jones, Simon Bridges, twitter, uncategorized - Tags: , , ,

5 9 49 31 6

No, not next Saturday’s Lotto numbers, but Matthew Hooton’s twitter teaser.

It’s either left to right (Gov’t v Opposition) or alphabetical. Or maybe something else.

I reckon the key number is 49. That’s an outright win for the first time under MMP. However, even if Labour could govern alone, or with one party’s support, I expect the current coalition to continue.

Just with a lot less Shane Jones.

UPDATE: Fellow righty David Farrar reckons Matthew Hooton has got it wrong. According to the latest Curia polling, it’s even better for Labour!

43 comments on “Matthew’s Magic Numbers ”

  1. Peter Sibbald 1

    49? I think you will find the answer, to the election, (and of course life, the universe and everything), is actually 42 (Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe).

    But seriously, I would certainly hope that after this crisis, and the Mosque shooting last year, NZ would return Labour outright. The government has certainly been a bit slow with covid 19 re the borders, but hindsight is easy and their decisions were lose lose, as it was always going to be a hard trade off.

    No doubt NZ First will once again form a coalition with them, as it has been pretty much a seamless government. Greens will struggle I suspect, which is sad as JAG in particular has succeeded in pushing more environmentally kind transport options.

    Just my opinion, but at this stage, as good as any.

    But will there be an election in 2020? Maybe not.

    • observer 1.1

      "But will there be an election in 2020? Maybe not."

      National have gone from "September is too soon" last week to "let's go to level 2 ASAP" this week. Pretty hard to argue that things should be getting back to normal, all open for business, but not democratic elections.

  2. Forget now 2

    The sum is 100, so I am guessing that they are percentages. Maybe of recent national party polls?

  3. Tricledrown 3

    Hooton always has a hidden agenda this is just click bait to motivate National voters. From the forked tongue fanboy.

    • Peter 3.1

      And if it weren't that but a picture of reality it would have been:

      5 9 49 31 6 17

      17 being 'undecided/refused to say.' Including that diminishes the message to get enthusiastic and energised and panic.

      • I Feel Love 3.1.1

        Well he's upset his RW friends (who seem to be Covid Pandemic Deniers as well) – his Twitter replies.

      • Forget now 3.1.2

        But wouldn't you panic more if it was 17% undecided? As they would be expected to vote similarly to the stated intended putting presumed Labour on 57%?

        Also, that sums to over a hundred (117%?) – you should have adjusted numbers proportionately. But then I can't be bothered doing so either, and I like playing with numbers.

        • Peter 3.1.2.1

          The polls usually total a 100% of those who express preference. The undecideds don't feature.

          My choice of 17 wasn't random.

          Colmar Brunton Poll February with big headlines 'New political poll shows National neck-and-neck with Labour-Greens' included in the small print 'The Maori Party and the New Conservative Party were both on 1 per cent, while 17 per cent were undecided or refused to say how they would vote.'

          17% is a very significant amount.

          If that particular news editor decided to change the focus she could have said in big headlines 'New political poll shows big number undecided.'

          https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/new-political-poll-more-evidence-of-tight-election-battle/

  4. If they are poll numbers as you suggest, then 5 is NZfist and 9 is Green, I wouldn't expect the current coalition to remain the same, in fact, I'd bet against it.

    I'd wager Winston wouldn't be deputy pm, the balance of the minor coalition parties in cabinet would at least be reversed, or they would chose to sit cross bench outside government instead of taking the public demotion.

    • McFlock 4.1

      Could be the other way around. Either way, the smart move would be to give both minor parties some decent policy concessions. The minister for Talleys might be out, though.

      But in general, National highlighted the message that if you treat people like crap, they tell you to get stuffed. The current Labour leadership seems smarter than that.

      • The Al1en 4.1.1

        True, but the greens have been polling higher than fist for a while, so that would be a huge turnaround. If the numbers are true, and that's a big if, the only explanation for that switch in fortune would be from disaffected nats, and to be honest, I'm not sure nats would do that knowing Winston would probably pick Jacinda again anyway.

        • McFlock 4.1.1.1

          Well, the nats are shedding support, and the economic tories can go to ACT (6% from their usual trace element if l-r) and the social conservatives can go to NZ1 (9 from its usual 5%).

          5+4=9, which would put nats and nat exiles on 40%.

          But it's all navel-gazing assuming one poll result, so gazing2

          • The Al1en 4.1.1.1.1

            Scary thought there's 6% who'd vote act, though if it is all navel gazing, and hoot's navel at that, at least we know who the scungy belly button fluff is.

  5. pat 5

    lol…..a few random numbers creates such fuss

  6. Andre 6

    Isn't this just paying altogether too much attention to Hooton?

  7. Craig H 7

    49 and 31 were Labour and National in someone's internal polling – can't remember if it was UMR or Curia.

  8. joe90 8

    He's pining for home.

  9. observer 9

    Worth recalling that the poll numbers for Clark's Labour and Key's National were often at 50+ during their first terms. Both won a second term comfortably enough, but neither had an overall majority for their party alone.

  10. bwaghorn 10

    Why give this shit heal any oxygen. Hes nothing.

    • The post's really not about Matthew, though as noted by I Feel Love above, it's greatly upset his Tory mates, with David Farrar almost directly calling him a liar.

      If the numbers are correct, then we are looking at the first genuine landslide win under MMP. That would be significant in any electoral cycle, however, when the next Government is going to be tasked with a nationwide economic rebuild, the possibilities for radical change are real.

      We could be looking at a society that is now ready to reverse Rogernomics and a Government willing and able to affect that generational change.

      • Muttonbird 10.1.1

        Yes there would be scope for change with a Labour only government will be huge but they have already said (somewhere) they don't favour radical or fast change like Rogernomics.

        So it will be incremental but I hope they take a step back and really come up with some vision about what the country should look like for the next 2 generations/50 years.

        Are JA and Robertson the people to do this? Probably, but they need some more help.

        • alwyn 10.1.1.1

          I suspect that this story on Stuff represents what Robertson and Ardern want.

          Higher Income tax rates. Higher GST rate. Introduce a CGT. Bring in a Wealth Tax. Tax Superannuation beneficiaries at a higher rate. Bring in new Environmental taxes. Push Inflation rates up.

          And while they are about it run Government debt up to $100 Billion.

          As always with Labour we see the truth of the adage They never met a tax they didn't like.

          God help us if the gloss and the spin doesn't collapse before the election. If they want to get back they will, of course, go for as early an election as they can manage. No matter how they spin it they aren't going to get back if they get unemployment up to 20% as is looking quite likely with the total shambles they are making of things at the moment.

          Edit. Whoops, I forgot to include the link to the Stuff story

          https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121016852/coronavirus-tax-changes-coming-to-pay-for-covid19-response-what-will-they-look-like

          • Dontshillplease 10.1.1.1.1

            High GST rate? Like the Nats did after they said they wouldn't then.

            Ahh yes, following the science and medical experts created such a shambles. Of course we'd have been better off listening to Simon.. although that would depend on which Simon. The 'don't shut down' Simon, the 'They were too slow' Simon, or another one, take your pick.

      • observer 10.1.2

        As pointed out immediately above your comment, both previous MMP governments reached very high numbers – in fact, higher – in the first term. Key/National were in the stratosphere, for many months. Conventional wisdom was unanimous: if the ABs won the rugby world cup then the landslide would turn into a rout.

        It didn't happen.

  11. Carolyn_Nth 11

    Tweet's gone? Or Hooton's closed/protected his twitter?

  12. Ad 12

    Ardern's entitled to her poll bump, but one false move and it all disappears.

    This government has to find a very, very small sweet spot in a triangle with one side being health, one side being the economy, and one side being society. It's not there yet.

    We are likely to get further outbreaks unless the R level falls below 0. Hard to see that being sustained unless we get really lucky in an advanced Level 2. We haven't been lucky in a decade.

    That means more shorter-term lockdowns, more social stress, more economic loss, more health impacts.

    So that demand on the government to sustain New Zealand is just going to get bigger and bigger and bigger through 2021 and 2022 as we slowly recover.

    That is to say, this poll bump won't last. Avoid any self-congratulation implied by Hooten or anyone.

    In a few months our key Ministers will become exhausted from the strain and pace and perpetual responsibility.

    So sure, Labour probably leads another team.

    But there's nothing expansive or joyful in it. It's just the most massive grind for them, day after day, for three years.

    • Forget now 12.1

      R (reinfection) level below 1 surely? I am not sure what a negative R level would mean – more cases recovering than new people infected? But I don't think patient recovery is a variable in that equation. I certainly can't recall ever seeing a negative R number anyway.

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 12.1.1

        Negative R0 – I think that means infected people are actually transmitting healing to other infected people!

    • New view 12.2

      One of the few comments that tells it how it is. My thoughts are that neither party Will be looking forward to winning the election. If you could call it a win. For either the Coalition or National it will be a poisoned chalice. The massive debt and unemployment will be a migraine for whoever wins. There will be a lot of unsatisfied people out there from every party.

  13. Muttonbird 13

    Would be great if National were at 31%.

    Someone on the Twitter thread mused that with ACT on 5% this might be the end of the Epsom deal.

    Can only hope.

  14. Craig H 14

    A possible reason why governments don't usually reach their mid-term polling numbers at an election is that the undecided voters don't support the government in the same proportion as the decided voters. I suspect that's why NZ First usually does better in elections than the polls.

  15. AB 15

    I'm disturbed by the thought that 1 in 17 people (roughly) that I meet are totally deranged.

  16. Peter 16

    When the dust clears we'll find that Hooton, furtive Hooton, was sneaking out of lockdown to a secret Housie session at the Ladies Gardening Club. It's been running since 1974 and nothing was going to stop them. Those are the numbers on his big winning card.

  17. mac1 17

    I was born on 5/9/49. Hooten is saying that those born 5 September 1949 have a 31% chance of living for another 6 years. Or, have a 6% chance of living for another 31 years.

    That's about right. Thanks, Matthew.

    Seriously though I love the up-dated predictions. That makes my Tory electorate vulnerable to changing to Labour well and truly…..

  18. ianmac 18

    If Hooton is a Pundit how about Peter Dunne. What a miserable moaning sore looser. Doom laden and full of what "they" ought have done. Says that "his" Government following his Leadership was so much wiser. Key and Joyce was so much better don't you know?

  19. Corey Humm 19

    Do we really see the govt winning? The govt has shown superb leadership here but that's gonna be a double edged sword, the history books will show Ardern as strong leader but will the newspapers?

    The love in is starting to corrode. Working class and middle class people will turn on this govt very quickly once they lose their livelihoods and many are going to lose their livelihoods.

    The nats are gonna play the dirtiest campaign ever, with big money and labour is going to have to do something it hasn't done in decades … ( Be bold, take on the status quo reform agencies like MSD and come up with bold new ideas that don't require a six month working group ) I don't think labour can do that, I think at their core they are a party of tweaking the status quo to make it fairer, they are not the reforming force they were in the 20th century.

    I hope labour wins a second term, only to keep the Nat act brigade from inflicting horrific reforms, but I can only see the publics live turn to anger once they lose their jobs, houses and I think labour would rather lose the election than seriously tackle the hateful vindictive behavior of MSD ,they may tweak it so MSD treats newly poor middle class beneficiaries nicely but MSD won't treat the working class with dignity, those people will just probably not vote or be decieved into voting national, we'll see hope for three more years tho

  20. Brutus Iscariot 20

    This could turn on a dime with one misstep. If National can pin this recession/depression on an overzealous response, the "lightweight/vapid" attack angle on Jacinda could well work. Winston is already trying to backpedal and distance himself from the government's management of this. You think that photo of him fishing was an accident? No, it was a very clever dog whistle.

    The main thing Labour has in its favour is Soimun's incompetence. If National had English at the helm, it would be all on.

  21. Hooten is playing a game. David Seymour /Simon Bridges Gerry Brownlee Paul Goldsmith Paula Bennett Judith Collins No Nay Never, No More.

    Family members who have been Act or National supporters think the Government has followed the science and been honest with the public and is doing well in the face of a world problem.

    Hooten wants to poke our sense of togetherness and sense of purpose.

    He is playing "Look over here. Puzzle on this."

    83% say "We agree with what has been done by this Government." So his numbers are attention seeking rubbish. He is about as reliable as a snowflake imo.

  22. Here's some more numbers;

    41 Electorate seats National

    29 Electorate seats labour

    7 Maori Seats

    61,000 overseas vote of the 442,000 Special votes cast in 2017.

    How does that compute, to a govern alone labour government scenario?

    They'd need to flip 4 to 5 electorates and swing over 300,000 votes to do that, so I'm calling bullshit on that take.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Tokelau Language Week reminds us to stay united and strong
    Staying strong in the face of challenges and being true to our heritage and languages are key to preserving our cultural identity and wellbeing, is the focus of the 2020 Tokelau Language Week. Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio, says this year’s theme, ‘Apoapo tau foe, i nā tāfea ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 hour ago
  • NZ announces a third P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    The Government has deployed a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea, announced Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “New Zealand has long supported ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Pacific trade and development agreement a reality
    Pacific regional trade and development agreement PACER Plus will enter into force in 60 days now that the required eight countries have ratified it. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker welcomed the announcement that the Cook Islands is the eighth nation to ratify this landmark agreement. “The agreement represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Securing a pipeline of teachers
    The Government is changing its approach to teacher recruitment as COVID-19 travel restrictions continue, by boosting a range of initiatives to get more Kiwis into teaching. “When we came into Government, we were faced with a teacher supply crisis,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “Over the past three years, we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exceptions for a small number of international students with visas
    The Government has established a new category that will allow 250 international PhD and postgraduate students to enter New Zealand and continue their studies, in the latest set of border exceptions. “The health, safety and wellbeing of people in New Zealand remains the Government’s top priority. Tight border restrictions remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • First COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreement signed
    The Government has signed an agreement to purchase 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 750,000 people – from Pfizer and BioNTech, subject to the vaccine successfully completing all clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, say Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods and Health Minister Chris Hipkins. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • International statement – End-to-end encryption and public safety
    We, the undersigned, support strong encryption, which plays a crucial role in protecting personal data, privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets and cyber security.  It also serves a vital purpose in repressive states to protect journalists, human rights defenders and other vulnerable people, as stated in the 2017 resolution of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ministry of Defence Biodefence Assessment released
    The Ministry of Defence has today released a Defence Assessment examining Defence’s role across the spectrum of biological hazards and threats facing New Zealand. Biodefence: Preparing for a New Era of Biological Hazards and Threats looks at how the NZDF supports other agencies’ biodefence activities, and considers the context of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020
    New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020 Hon David Parker’s response following Thomas Piketty and Esther Duflo. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, wherever in the world you might be. I first acknowledge the excellent thought provoking speeches of Thomas Piketty and Esther ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Kaipara Moana restoration takes next step
    A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed today at Waihāua Marae between the Crown, local iwi and councils to protect, restore and enhance the mauri of Kaipara Moana in Northland. Environment Minister David Parker signed the document on behalf of the Crown along with representatives from Ngā Maunga Whakahī, Ngāti ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Uruguay unite on reducing livestock production emissions
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor and Uruguayan Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries Carlos María Uriarte have welcomed the launch of a three-year project that will underpin sustainable livestock production in Uruguay, Argentina, and Costa Rica.  The project called ‘Innovation for pasture management’ is led by Uruguay’s National Institute of Agricultural ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 3100 jobs created through marae upgrades
    Hundreds of marae throughout the country will be upgraded through investments from the Provincial Growth Fund’s refocused post COVID-19 funding to create jobs and put money into the pockets of local tradespeople and businesses, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced. “A total ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Health volunteers recognised in annual awards
    Health Minister Chris Hipkins has announced 9 teams and 14 individuals are the recipients of this year’s Minister of Health Volunteer Awards.  “The health volunteer awards celebrate and recognise the thousands of dedicated health sector volunteers who give many hours of their time to help other New Zealanders,” Mr Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community COVID-19 Fund supports Pacific recovery
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says a total of 264 groups and individuals have successfully applied for the Pacific Aotearoa Community COVID-19 Recovery Fund, that will support Pacific communities drive their own COVID-19 recovery strategies, initiatives, and actions. “I am keen to see this Fund support Pacific ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community benefits from Māori apprenticeships
    Up to 50 Māori apprentices in Wellington will receive paid training to build houses for their local communities, thanks to a $2.75 million investment from the Māori Trades and Training Fund, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Ngāti Toa Rangatira Incorporated to provide its Ngā Kaimahi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Training fund supports Māori jobseekers
    Rapidly growing sectors will benefit from a $990,000 Māori Trades and Training Fund investment which will see Wellington jobseekers supported into work, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Sapphire Consultants Ltd. to help up to 45 Māori jobseekers into paid training initiatives over two years through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ruakura Inland Port development vital infrastructure for Waikato
    The Government is investing $40 million to develop an inland port at Ruakura which will become a freight super-hub and a future business, research and residential development for the Waikato, Urban Development and Transport Minister Phil Twyford, and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The funding has been has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Appointments made to Defence Expert Review Group
    Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today the establishment of an Expert Review Group to review a number of aspects of the New Zealand Defence Force’s (NZDF) structure, information management and record-keeping processes.  The Expert Review Group’s work arises out of the first recommendation from the Report of the Government’s Inquiry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • No active community cases of COVID-19
    There are no active community cases of COVID-19 remaining in the country after the last people from the recent outbreak have recovered from the virus, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “This is a big milestone. New Zealanders have once again through their collective actions squashed the virus. The systems ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Clean energy upgrade for more public buildings
    More public buildings will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. Minister Shaw announced that Lincoln and Auckland universities will receive support through the Clean-Powered Public Service Fund to replace fossil fuel boilers. Southern, Taranaki, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Schools back donations scheme for the second year
    More schools have opted in to the donations scheme for 2021, compared to 2020 when the scheme was introduced. “The families of more than 447,000 students will be better off next year, with 94% of eligible schools and kura opting into the scheme,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Ruapehu cycle trails gets PGF boost
    The spectacular Mountains to Sea cycle trail in Ruapehu District will receive $4.6 million in funding from the Provincial Growth Fund for two additional trails, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This is an exciting development for the local community, and one that will provide significant economic opportunities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago