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Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, maori party, national, nz first - Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

All three major pollsters have delivered their final results within two days of election day, giving us a nice picture into what the spread of results tomorrow could look like, with the trend looking good for some sort of centre-left government, but a majority government result for labour still barely on the cards in all three results.

NZF is outside of the margin of error of the 5% threshold in all of these polls- they would need a significant surge in the last two days to have made it back into Parliament, so it’s looking like it may be the second time they drop out. While good in theory, in practice this is likely to heighten Labour and National’s battle for centrist swing voters until a new party that can sit in the ground between them to some extent emerges.

While the Māori party isn’t registering particularly well in the party vote, I’d keep my eyes on the electorates where their co-leaders are running in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makarau.

While the Greens scored heavily in the Roy Morgan as usual, which often overestimates them, to the point I’ve taken to adjusting down 70% of the result over 5% in order to have it comparable to the other two polls, Colmar Brunton also gave a really strong Green result, although Reid Research didn’t, and when adjusted this way, the Roy Morgan poll looks a lot like the Reid Research one for the Greens, so there’s a big difference between potentially as few as eight or as many as twelve MPs for them depending on how you count.

Also worth noting is that there’s some leader Approval data in the Colmar Brunton poll: Ardern’s net approval is still very strong at a rounded +55%, (74%-20%) and Collins is doing better than previous National Leaders, but still barely struggling through, at +6%, although compared to Bridges, she’ll be glad her head is above water- for no. (45%-39%)

The trend for Labour and National is relatively stable now, which is actually good news- means we can make a reasonable call that Labour will be somewhere around that 60 seat margin, and National somewhere at or just below 40. “Around 60” seats, though, is actually poised on the knife’s edge of whether Labour gets 61 or more seats, or 60 or less.

I’m generally agreed that Labour would favour keeping the Greens close by picking out policies they like from our platform to continue an ongoing relationship, if you want any big-ticket items that Labour seems to find inconvenient, like say, actually putting any big policy into place after COVID, then whether the Greens have an actual negotiating position post-election is going to be hugely relevant- and that all hinges on whether Labour dip below that 61 MPs mark.

Digging into the modelling for a bit, we can see visually here that the balance is very tight:

In these simulations, the threshold was largely pretty consistent:

Under Threshold: Roy Morgan Colmar Brunton Reid Research
ACT Party 0.7% 0.1% 0%
New Zealand First 100.0% 99.4% 100%
Green Party 0% 0.1% 2.5%

Finally, let’s have a look at the electorate shift modelling and which MPs might be in tomorrow. This looks manageable for both large parties:

Labour

No. Name Electorate Reid Research: Colmar Brunton: Roy Morgan:
1 Jacinda Ardern Mt Albert Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
2 Kelvin Davis Te Tai Tokerau Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
3 Grant Robertson Wellington Central Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
4 Phil Twyford Te Atatū Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
5 Megan Woods Wigram Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
6 Chris Hipkins Remutaka Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
7 Andrew Little List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
8 Carmel Sepuloni Kelston Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
9 David Parker List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
10  Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
11  Trevor Mallard List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
12  Stuart Nash Napier Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
13  Jenny Salesa Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
14  Damien O’Connor West Coast-Tasman Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
15  Kris Faafoi List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
16  David Clark Dunedin Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
17  Ayesha Verrall List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
18  Peeni Henare Tāmaki Makaurau Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
19  Willie Jackson List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
20  Aupito William Sio Māngere Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
21  Poto Williams Christchurch East Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
22  Vanushi Walters List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
23  Michael Wood Mt Roskill Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
24  Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauāuru Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
25  Kiri Allan East Coast Elected via list Elected via list Wins Electorate
26  Kieran McAnulty Wairarapa Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
27  Louisa Wall List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
28  Meka Whaitiri Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
29  Rino Tirikatene Te Tai Tonga Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
30  Camilla Belich Epsom Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
31  Priyanca Radhakrishnan Maungakiekie Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
32  Jan Tinetti Tauranga Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
33  Deborah Russell New Lynn Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
34  Marja Lubeck Kaipara ki Mahurangi Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
35  Angie Warren-Clark Bay of Plenty Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
36  Willow-Jean Prime Northland Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
37  Tamati Coffey Waiariki Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
38  Naisi Chen Botany Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
39  Jo Luxton Rangitata Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
40  Jamie Strange Hamilton East Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
41  Liz Craig Invercargill Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
42  Ibrahim Omer List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
43  Duncan Webb Christchurch Central Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
44  Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
45  Ginny Andersen Hutt South Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
46  Rachel Brooking List Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
47  Paul Eagle Rongotai Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
48  Helen White Auckland Central Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
49  Barbara Edmonds Mana Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
50  Angela Roberts Taranaki-King Country Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
51  Shanan Halbert Northcote Elected via list Not elected Elected via list
52  Neru Leavasa Takanini Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
53  Tracey McLellan Banks Peninsula Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
54  Lemauga Lydia Sosene List Elected via list Not elected Elected via list
55  Steph Lewis Whanganui Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
56  Dan Rosewarne Waimakariri Not elected Not elected Not elected
57  Rachel Boyack Nelson Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
58  Arena Williams Manurewa Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
59  Ingrid Leary Taieri Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
Greg O`Connor Ōhariu Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
Anna Lorck Tukituki Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
Tangi Utikere Palmerston North Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate

National

No. Name Electorate Reid Research: Colmar Brunton: Roy Morgan:
1 Judith Collins Papakura Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
2 Gerry Brownlee Ilam Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
3 Paul Goldsmith Epsom Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
4 Simon Bridges Tauranga Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
5 Shane Reti Whangārei Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
6 Todd McClay Rotorua Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
7 Chris Bishop Hutt South Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
8 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
9 Louise Upston Taupō Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
10 Scott Simpson Coromandel Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
11 David Bennett Hamilton East Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
12 Michael Woodhouse Dunedin Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
13 Nicola Willis Wellington Central Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
14 Jacqui Dean Waitaki Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
15 Mark Mitchell Whangaparāoa Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
16 Melissa Lee Mt Albert Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
17 Andrew Bayly Port Waikato Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
18 Nick Smith Nelson Elected via list Elected via list Loses seat
19 Maureen Pugh List Elected via list Loses seat Loses seat
20 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
21 Harete Hipango Whanganui Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
22 Johnathan Young New Plymouth Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
23 Tim Macindoe Hamilton West Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
24 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
25 Paulo Garcia List Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
26 Nancy Lu List Not elected Not elected Not elected
27 Parmjeet Parmar Mt Roskill Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
28 Agnes Loheni List Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
29 Dale Stephens Christchurch Central Not elected Not elected Not elected
30 Alfred Ngaro Te Atatū Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
31 Matt Doocey Waimakariri Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
32 Stuart Smith Kaikōura Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
33 Lawrence Yule Tukituki Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
34 Denise Lee Maungakiekie Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
35 Simon O’Connor Tāmaki Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
36 Brett Hudson Ōhariu Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
37 Simeon Brown Pakuranga Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
38 Ian McKelvie Rangitīkei Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
39 Erica Stanford East Coast Bays Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
40 Matt King Northland Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
41 Chris Penk Kaipara ki Mahurangi Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
42 Tim Van de Molen Waikato Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
43 Dan Bidois Northcote Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
44 Jo Hayes Mana Loses seat Loses seat Loses seat
64 Tania Tapsell East Coast Wins Electorate Not elected Wins Electorate

ACT

No. Name Reid Research: Colmar Brunton: Roy Morgan:
1 David Seymour (Epsom) Wins Electorate Wins Electorate Wins Electorate
2 Brooke van Velden Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
3 Nicole McKee Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
4 Chris Baillie Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
5 Simon Court Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
6 James McDowall Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
7 Karen Chhour Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
8 Mark Cameron Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
9 Toni Severin Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
10 Damien Smith Elected via list Elected via list Not elected

Green

No. Name Reid Research: Colmar Brunton: Roy Morgan: Roy Morgan: (Adjusted)
1 Marama Davidson Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
2 James Shaw Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
3 Chlöe Swarbrick Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
4 Julie Anne Genter Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
5 Jan Logie Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
6 Eugenie Sage Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
7 Golriz Ghahraman Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
8 Teanau Tuiono Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
9 Elizabeth Kerekere Not elected Elected via list Elected via list Elected via list
10 Ricardo Menéndez March Not elected Elected via list Elected via list Not elected
11 Steve Abel Not elected Elected via list Elected via list Not elected
12 Teall Crossen Not elected Not elected Elected via list Not elected

10 comments on “Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush ”

  1. Sacha 1

    Matt, thank you for pulling all this together.

    • Matthew Whitehead 1.1

      No problem, it's been a rush for me with a lot in my personal life, but I've been trying to make time to do this analysis for everyone. I've got them all up on twitter under #nzpoll, but not all of them made it to this site unfortunately.

      Very glad I could get the last three in on time.

  2. Matthew Whitehead 2

    Note for those who haven't read the election day info: Pre-moderation will switch on during the regulated election day period. If you're seeing others' comments posted but yours aren't showing up, this is why. You don't need to submit them again. 🙂

    • lprent 2.1

      Even better than that – in theory the ability to leave a comment on anything except the two designated moderated posts will disappear between 0000 and 1900. A subtle reminder for commenters 🙂

      Thanks for this post. It is interesting to see just how knife-edge the Labour-Green option is based on the polls.

      And I love that there is currently no probability based on the polls for National or Act to be in a government (unless Jacinda and the Labour caucus insanely ask them to be there).

      • Matthew Whitehead 2.1.1

        I'm kinda loving that NZF haven't had a last-minute surge, or rather, that they've had it and it was… 1% extra, lol.

        Thanks for the correction Lynn, even better!

        • lprent 2.1.1.1

          I've always been ambiguous about NZF. They are a pain, and even more so since Shane Jones (all mouth and no oomph) wound up there.

          But as you point out, having them long-term limits the level of Labour and National completely focusing on chasing the centre votes.

  3. Brian Tregaskin 3

    the odds at the bookies speak for themselves –National is toast

    https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/new-zealand-politics/new-zealand-general-election-2020-next-sworn-in-government-4933767

    New Zealand Labour Party @ 1.05

    New Zealand National Party @ 10.00

    Bet you not one National MP has placed a bet on their own party ?

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/election-2020-matthew-hooton-national-set-for-third-defeat-in-2023
    history will repeat itself over the next three years. National MPs will refuse to accept the public’s verdict, and decline to engage with new ideas or even contemporary New Zealand attitudes. They will resolve again to sit back smugly and wait for Ardern to fail

  4. Matthew Whitehead 4

    If anyone had trouble reading the graphs on the original version of this post, I've updated it so that all the shrunken ones (the first six) can be clicked-through to the full scale file. I had forgotten the editor doesn't default to that, sorry!

  5. swordfish 5

    Juuuusst in the nick of time !

    Remember … the preliminary Election Night result won’t be precisely the same as Final tally.

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