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Your Preliminary Parliament for 2020

Written By: - Date published: 2:33 am, October 18th, 2020 - 58 comments

On the preliminary results, we have our expected MPs. While Parliament may change a little, we now know its shape, and its likely members- with about three exceptions.

Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments

We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.

Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020

Written By: - Date published: 4:30 pm, September 2nd, 2020 - 30 comments

A trend of 2020 polling results

Pollwatch returns, with a Labour majority government no longer a complete certainty, and with another poor result for National.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments

Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?

Pollwatch: Reid Research poll completed 2020-07-24

Written By: - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments

Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?

Raymond Huo resigning at election

Written By: - Date published: 3:56 pm, July 21st, 2020 - 15 comments

Raymond Huo has announced he will no longer contest the 2020 election.

Pollwatch for Newshub/Reid Research poll, 18th May 2020

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 53 comments

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is a bloodbath for National- but who are the likely victims? Pollwatch is back, this time with a model for electorate winners and losers to add onto the party vote stats.

How to vote in STV

Written By: - Date published: 12:15 pm, September 26th, 2019 - 21 comments

An example Single Transferable Vote ballot

It’s local voting time again, and more councils are using STV- while the Electoral Commission will tell you how to rank candidates, they won’t tell you how to vote effectively. Should you leave candidates off your list if you know what relative order they would go in?

Pollwatch: 9th June 2019

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments

We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]

In defense of taxing the family home

Written By: - Date published: 7:53 pm, February 21st, 2019 - 129 comments

Let’s talk about why houses, art, and basically everything should be in the new Capital Gains Tax that Labour and New Zealand First should get onboard with, contrary to their reservations.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 18/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:29 pm, February 19th, 2019 - 13 comments

Do good things come in twos? This Pollwatch suggests that perhaps they do, and that maybe the news is rosier than the last one suggested.

Dead cats and silly sausages

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 pm, February 14th, 2019 - 125 comments

a SLEEPING cat

Today in distractions: David Carter is covering for Simon Bridges’ polling results by upsetting the whole idea of non-partisan accountability of the Government to Parliament in select comittees, I give some free advice to the National Party comms team knowing they won’t pull it off, and Mallard has lost patience with non-answers

Pollwatch: 11/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Roy morgan 11/02/2019: 63.2% chance outright labour govt, 36.8% chance labour-green coalition

Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]

What do we want in 2019?

Written By: - Date published: 1:39 pm, January 1st, 2019 - 97 comments

It’s election year again- but only for local elections this time. What do you want your local candidates to address?

The dirty politics of beating up on Karel Sroubek

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, November 14th, 2018 - 272 comments

You will be shocked to learn that the National Party has been less than honest about where it is getting its information regarding Karel Sroubek.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, October 23rd

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments

In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.

Let’s talk mental health

Written By: - Date published: 10:51 pm, October 21st, 2018 - 298 comments

With the news about Jami-Lee Ross being taken into care, now’s a good time to talk about mental health, and how it should be handled in politics.

Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments

The most likely result from Colmar Brunton's 5th august poll as a pie chart: 7 Greens, 51 Labour, 6 NZF, 1 ACT, and 55 National MPs.

The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?

Godwin’s flaw?

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, June 26th, 2018 - 213 comments

Sarah Huckabee-Sanders briefing the White House press corps

In which we discuss a number of quick hits: Trump thinks judges only exist to be bribed, Sarah Huckabee-Sanders can’t get a seat at a restaurant, and whether Godwin’s Law needs to be amended.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments

A chart of the expected outcome from this poll. Greens: 6, Labour: 55, National: 58, ACT: 1.

Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.

Pollwatch: Reid Research, 27/05/2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 27th, 2018 - 88 comments

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.

A belated congratulations

Written By: - Date published: 3:54 pm, May 26th, 2018 - 22 comments

Post Immigration New Zealand Spreadsheet debacle, Ministers Curran and Shaw announce a stocktake and review of all government algorithms.

A study in contrasts

Written By: - Date published: 6:32 pm, May 24th, 2018 - 120 comments

Minister Twyford’s resignation has been refused by the Prime Minister after he took a call against Civil Aviation rules, in the second ministerial scandal of the Ardern administration.

Industrial action is one way to increase wages

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, May 17th, 2018 - 20 comments

The National Party has recently been on the Government’s case for increasing strikes under their watch. But is that really a fair criticism, and does it jive well with the other things the Opposition has been claiming to value?

Today in schadenfreude

Written By: - Date published: 2:57 pm, April 23rd, 2018 - 39 comments

Brian Tamaki, recent victim of self/God?-inflicted burns. Don't be like Brian.

For those who occassionally enjoy dark laughter at the truly deserved pain of others, today brings supremely ironic news in the continued culture war on queer people in New Zealand.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, 16/4/18

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments

An arc chart of seats in the latest Colmar Brunton poll: Greens 7, Labour 53, New Zealand First 6, National 54, ACT 1.

In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.

What did we want from Marama Davidson?

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, April 10th, 2018 - 68 comments

James Shaw and Marama Davidson, standing together as Green Party co-leaders

While there has been some informed commentary on Marama Davidson’s ascension as co-leader of the Green Party, some of the more right-wing outfits have failed to understand the dynamics within the party right now. What did Marama promise, and what were Greens expecting of her?

An Orwellian Minister for Open Government

Written By: - Date published: 1:46 pm, March 27th, 2018 - 257 comments

A picture of Minister Clare Curran

The Minister for Open Government has been caught organizing a secret meeting, and it has led to the resignation of an RNZ manager who covered for her. Is it time to kick Curran out?

Corporate media: Blame it on the alcohol

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, March 15th, 2018 - 87 comments

A row of at least fourteen beer cans, stacked two-high

Do we have a sexual assault problem in New Zealand, or an alcohol problem? The media has decided for you. (Content warning: Sexual assault, rape culture, discussion of problematic news coverage thereof)

Tripling down on financial illiteracy with Amy Adams (and MMT)

Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, March 8th, 2018 - 128 comments

A 500-million Mark bank note from pre-war Germany

Amy Adams won’t commit to $11.7b, but she too has now become the third person to fall down the imaginary fiscal hole. How can National claim to have any soundness on finance if they won’t admit their criticisms on the economy are unreasonable and unfounded? And besides, aren’t National actually worse fiscal managers if ordinary people tend to get paid less under their regimes? We dive into some theory to thoroughly dispute even Steven Joyce’s/Amy Adam’s secondary criticism of “fiscal tightness,” although concede that two of the Budget Responsibility rules are probably stupid in order to do it.

TPP2: Electric Boogaloo

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, March 8th, 2018 - 82 comments

The TPP is due to be signed today. For those who aren’t done to death with hearing about it, why is it still bad, why hasn’t it met Labour’s bottom lines, and why are we even signing it?

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