Written By: - Date published: 12:15 pm, September 26th, 2019 - 21 comments
It’s local voting time again, and more councils are using STV- while the Electoral Commission will tell you how to rank candidates, they won’t tell you how to vote effectively. Should you leave candidates off your list if you know what relative order they would go in?
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments
We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 pm, February 21st, 2019 - 129 comments
Let’s talk about why houses, art, and basically everything should be in the new Capital Gains Tax that Labour and New Zealand First should get onboard with, contrary to their reservations.
Written By: - Date published: 8:15 pm, February 14th, 2019 - 125 comments
Today in distractions: David Carter is covering for Simon Bridges’ polling results by upsetting the whole idea of non-partisan accountability of the Government to Parliament in select comittees, I give some free advice to the National Party comms team knowing they won’t pull it off, and Mallard has lost patience with non-answers
Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 1:39 pm, January 1st, 2019 - 97 comments
It’s election year again- but only for local elections this time. What do you want your local candidates to address?
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments
In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments
The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?
Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments
Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.
Written By: - Date published: 3:54 pm, May 26th, 2018 - 22 comments
Post Immigration New Zealand Spreadsheet debacle, Ministers Curran and Shaw announce a stocktake and review of all government algorithms.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, May 17th, 2018 - 20 comments
The National Party has recently been on the Government’s case for increasing strikes under their watch. But is that really a fair criticism, and does it jive well with the other things the Opposition has been claiming to value?
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments
In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, April 10th, 2018 - 68 comments
While there has been some informed commentary on Marama Davidson’s ascension as co-leader of the Green Party, some of the more right-wing outfits have failed to understand the dynamics within the party right now. What did Marama promise, and what were Greens expecting of her?
Written By: - Date published: 1:46 pm, March 27th, 2018 - 257 comments
The Minister for Open Government has been caught organizing a secret meeting, and it has led to the resignation of an RNZ manager who covered for her. Is it time to kick Curran out?
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, March 15th, 2018 - 87 comments
Do we have a sexual assault problem in New Zealand, or an alcohol problem? The media has decided for you. (Content warning: Sexual assault, rape culture, discussion of problematic news coverage thereof)
Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, March 8th, 2018 - 128 comments
Amy Adams won’t commit to $11.7b, but she too has now become the third person to fall down the imaginary fiscal hole. How can National claim to have any soundness on finance if they won’t admit their criticisms on the economy are unreasonable and unfounded? And besides, aren’t National actually worse fiscal managers if ordinary people tend to get paid less under their regimes? We dive into some theory to thoroughly dispute even Steven Joyce’s/Amy Adam’s secondary criticism of “fiscal tightness,” although concede that two of the Budget Responsibility rules are probably stupid in order to do it.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 27th, 2018 - 35 comments
The Minister of Justice and the Prime Minister teased a little bit of constitutional change yesterday. Let’s look at what that could actually mean, and how it could upon up old laws for review by Parliament.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Written By: - Date published: 7:36 pm, February 12th, 2018 - 119 comments
Bob Jones is now suing the woman that wants to strip him of his Knighthood over her use of the term “hate speech.” Can we think about perhaps stopping this litigiousness now?
Written By: - Date published: 5:12 pm, February 8th, 2018 - 123 comments
With Julie Anne Genter, Minister for Women, entering the co-leadership race, there’s now a real contest on our hands as to who joins James Shaw as co-leader of the Green Party. What does that mean for the Greens, and for New Zealand politics in general?
Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments
Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.
Written By: - Date published: 3:03 pm, December 11th, 2017 - 19 comments
Not only did National’s policy to sell off state houses fail, but now we’ve found out a similar Thatcher policy in the UK just handed many social houses to private landlords. Should we consider making it harder to sell off state houses in New Zealand?