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Pollwatch: 9th June 2019

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments

We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]

In defense of taxing the family home

Written By: - Date published: 7:53 pm, February 21st, 2019 - 129 comments

Let’s talk about why houses, art, and basically everything should be in the new Capital Gains Tax that Labour and New Zealand First should get onboard with, contrary to their reservations.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 18/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:29 pm, February 19th, 2019 - 13 comments

Do good things come in twos? This Pollwatch suggests that perhaps they do, and that maybe the news is rosier than the last one suggested.

Dead cats and silly sausages

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 pm, February 14th, 2019 - 125 comments

a SLEEPING cat

Today in distractions: David Carter is covering for Simon Bridges’ polling results by upsetting the whole idea of non-partisan accountability of the Government to Parliament in select comittees, I give some free advice to the National Party comms team knowing they won’t pull it off, and Mallard has lost patience with non-answers

Pollwatch: 11/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Roy morgan 11/02/2019: 63.2% chance outright labour govt, 36.8% chance labour-green coalition

Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]

What do we want in 2019?

Written By: - Date published: 1:39 pm, January 1st, 2019 - 97 comments

It’s election year again- but only for local elections this time. What do you want your local candidates to address?

The dirty politics of beating up on Karel Sroubek

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, November 14th, 2018 - 272 comments

You will be shocked to learn that the National Party has been less than honest about where it is getting its information regarding Karel Sroubek.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, October 23rd

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments

In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.

Let’s talk mental health

Written By: - Date published: 10:51 pm, October 21st, 2018 - 298 comments

With the news about Jami-Lee Ross being taken into care, now’s a good time to talk about mental health, and how it should be handled in politics.

Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments

The most likely result from Colmar Brunton's 5th august poll as a pie chart: 7 Greens, 51 Labour, 6 NZF, 1 ACT, and 55 National MPs.

The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?

Godwin’s flaw?

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, June 26th, 2018 - 213 comments

Sarah Huckabee-Sanders briefing the White House press corps

In which we discuss a number of quick hits: Trump thinks judges only exist to be bribed, Sarah Huckabee-Sanders can’t get a seat at a restaurant, and whether Godwin’s Law needs to be amended.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments

A chart of the expected outcome from this poll. Greens: 6, Labour: 55, National: 58, ACT: 1.

Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.

Pollwatch: Reid Research, 27/05/2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 27th, 2018 - 88 comments

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.

A belated congratulations

Written By: - Date published: 3:54 pm, May 26th, 2018 - 22 comments

Post Immigration New Zealand Spreadsheet debacle, Ministers Curran and Shaw announce a stocktake and review of all government algorithms.

A study in contrasts

Written By: - Date published: 6:32 pm, May 24th, 2018 - 120 comments

Minister Twyford’s resignation has been refused by the Prime Minister after he took a call against Civil Aviation rules, in the second ministerial scandal of the Ardern administration.

Industrial action is one way to increase wages

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, May 17th, 2018 - 20 comments

The National Party has recently been on the Government’s case for increasing strikes under their watch. But is that really a fair criticism, and does it jive well with the other things the Opposition has been claiming to value?

Today in schadenfreude

Written By: - Date published: 2:57 pm, April 23rd, 2018 - 39 comments

Brian Tamaki, recent victim of self/God?-inflicted burns. Don't be like Brian.

For those who occassionally enjoy dark laughter at the truly deserved pain of others, today brings supremely ironic news in the continued culture war on queer people in New Zealand.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, 16/4/18

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments

An arc chart of seats in the latest Colmar Brunton poll: Greens 7, Labour 53, New Zealand First 6, National 54, ACT 1.

In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.

What did we want from Marama Davidson?

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, April 10th, 2018 - 68 comments

James Shaw and Marama Davidson, standing together as Green Party co-leaders

While there has been some informed commentary on Marama Davidson’s ascension as co-leader of the Green Party, some of the more right-wing outfits have failed to understand the dynamics within the party right now. What did Marama promise, and what were Greens expecting of her?

An Orwellian Minister for Open Government

Written By: - Date published: 1:46 pm, March 27th, 2018 - 257 comments

A picture of Minister Clare Curran

The Minister for Open Government has been caught organizing a secret meeting, and it has led to the resignation of an RNZ manager who covered for her. Is it time to kick Curran out?

Corporate media: Blame it on the alcohol

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, March 15th, 2018 - 87 comments

A row of at least fourteen beer cans, stacked two-high

Do we have a sexual assault problem in New Zealand, or an alcohol problem? The media has decided for you. (Content warning: Sexual assault, rape culture, discussion of problematic news coverage thereof)

Tripling down on financial illiteracy with Amy Adams (and MMT)

Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, March 8th, 2018 - 128 comments

A 500-million Mark bank note from pre-war Germany

Amy Adams won’t commit to $11.7b, but she too has now become the third person to fall down the imaginary fiscal hole. How can National claim to have any soundness on finance if they won’t admit their criticisms on the economy are unreasonable and unfounded? And besides, aren’t National actually worse fiscal managers if ordinary people tend to get paid less under their regimes? We dive into some theory to thoroughly dispute even Steven Joyce’s/Amy Adam’s secondary criticism of “fiscal tightness,” although concede that two of the Budget Responsibility rules are probably stupid in order to do it.

TPP2: Electric Boogaloo

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, March 8th, 2018 - 82 comments

The TPP is due to be signed today. For those who aren’t done to death with hearing about it, why is it still bad, why hasn’t it met Labour’s bottom lines, and why are we even signing it?

Respecting our Rights and the New Zealand Constitution

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 27th, 2018 - 35 comments

The Minister of Justice and the Prime Minister teased a little bit of constitutional change yesterday. Let’s look at what that could actually mean, and how it could upon up old laws for review by Parliament.

Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments

In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.

Knighthood Interrupted, and the curious case of New Zealand Defamation Law

Written By: - Date published: 7:36 pm, February 12th, 2018 - 119 comments

Bob Jones is now suing the woman that wants to strip him of his Knighthood over her use of the term “hate speech.” Can we think about perhaps stopping this litigiousness now?

And we’re off to the races!

Written By: - Date published: 5:12 pm, February 8th, 2018 - 123 comments

With Julie Anne Genter, Minister for Women, entering the co-leadership race, there’s now a real contest on our hands as to who joins James Shaw as co-leader of the Green Party. What does that mean for the Greens, and for New Zealand politics in general?

Poll Watch: Reid Research Poll 2018-1-31

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments

Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.

The End of Life Choice Bill

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, December 21st, 2017 - 155 comments

We recently got the first reading on the End of Life Choice Bill, which aims to create a controlled regime for euthanasia. What are the pros and cons of the Bill?

The failure of “right to buy” policies

Written By: - Date published: 3:03 pm, December 11th, 2017 - 19 comments

Not only did National’s policy to sell off state houses fail, but now we’ve found out a similar Thatcher policy in the UK just handed many social houses to private landlords. Should we consider making it harder to sell off state houses in New Zealand?

People of the Year

Written By: - Date published: 3:00 pm, December 7th, 2017 - 135 comments

Time has named participants of the #MeToo campaign its people of the year. So why hasn’t the movement taken hold in New Zealand the way it has in the United States?

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