Written By: - Date published: 4:30 pm, September 2nd, 2020 - 30 comments
Pollwatch returns, with a Labour majority government no longer a complete certainty, and with another poor result for National.
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
Written By: - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments
Labour has hit stratospheric highs in the new Reid Research poll at 60.9%, and still have a strong partner in the Greens at 5.7%. Who’s in and out on these numbers? How has Collins performed?
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 53 comments
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is a bloodbath for National- but who are the likely victims? Pollwatch is back, this time with a model for electorate winners and losers to add onto the party vote stats.
Written By: - Date published: 12:15 pm, September 26th, 2019 - 21 comments
It’s local voting time again, and more councils are using STV- while the Electoral Commission will tell you how to rank candidates, they won’t tell you how to vote effectively. Should you leave candidates off your list if you know what relative order they would go in?
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, June 10th, 2019 - 27 comments
We had both major polls out yesterday, as noted in previous stories, and boy were the results a doozy! In addition to twice my usual talk about models, we’re going to get into the assumption some people are no doubt already making- that one of the polls is “wrong,” or more technically, rogue. For those […]
Written By: - Date published: 8:29 pm, February 19th, 2019 - 13 comments
Do good things come in twos? This Pollwatch suggests that perhaps they do, and that maybe the news is rosier than the last one suggested.
Written By: - Date published: 8:15 pm, February 14th, 2019 - 125 comments
Today in distractions: David Carter is covering for Simon Bridges’ polling results by upsetting the whole idea of non-partisan accountability of the Government to Parliament in select comittees, I give some free advice to the National Party comms team knowing they won’t pull it off, and Mallard has lost patience with non-answers
Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, November 14th, 2018 - 272 comments
You will be shocked to learn that the National Party has been less than honest about where it is getting its information regarding Karel Sroubek.
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments
In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.
Written By: - Date published: 10:51 pm, October 21st, 2018 - 298 comments
With the news about Jami-Lee Ross being taken into care, now’s a good time to talk about mental health, and how it should be handled in politics.
Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, June 26th, 2018 - 213 comments
In which we discuss a number of quick hits: Trump thinks judges only exist to be bribed, Sarah Huckabee-Sanders can’t get a seat at a restaurant, and whether Godwin’s Law needs to be amended.
Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 27th, 2018 - 88 comments
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.
Written By: - Date published: 6:32 pm, May 24th, 2018 - 120 comments
Minister Twyford’s resignation has been refused by the Prime Minister after he took a call against Civil Aviation rules, in the second ministerial scandal of the Ardern administration.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, May 17th, 2018 - 20 comments
The National Party has recently been on the Government’s case for increasing strikes under their watch. But is that really a fair criticism, and does it jive well with the other things the Opposition has been claiming to value?
Written By: - Date published: 2:57 pm, April 23rd, 2018 - 39 comments
For those who occassionally enjoy dark laughter at the truly deserved pain of others, today brings supremely ironic news in the continued culture war on queer people in New Zealand.
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments
In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, April 10th, 2018 - 68 comments
While there has been some informed commentary on Marama Davidson’s ascension as co-leader of the Green Party, some of the more right-wing outfits have failed to understand the dynamics within the party right now. What did Marama promise, and what were Greens expecting of her?
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, March 15th, 2018 - 87 comments
Do we have a sexual assault problem in New Zealand, or an alcohol problem? The media has decided for you. (Content warning: Sexual assault, rape culture, discussion of problematic news coverage thereof)
Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, March 8th, 2018 - 128 comments
Amy Adams won’t commit to $11.7b, but she too has now become the third person to fall down the imaginary fiscal hole. How can National claim to have any soundness on finance if they won’t admit their criticisms on the economy are unreasonable and unfounded? And besides, aren’t National actually worse fiscal managers if ordinary people tend to get paid less under their regimes? We dive into some theory to thoroughly dispute even Steven Joyce’s/Amy Adam’s secondary criticism of “fiscal tightness,” although concede that two of the Budget Responsibility rules are probably stupid in order to do it.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, March 8th, 2018 - 82 comments
The TPP is due to be signed today. For those who aren’t done to death with hearing about it, why is it still bad, why hasn’t it met Labour’s bottom lines, and why are we even signing it?
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 27th, 2018 - 35 comments
The Minister of Justice and the Prime Minister teased a little bit of constitutional change yesterday. Let’s look at what that could actually mean, and how it could upon up old laws for review by Parliament.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.