The Herald is obsessed with the latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:17 am, December 17th, 2017 - 47 comments
Categories: Economy, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, Media, national, nz first, Politics, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags: , ,

What was the most significant political event last week?

Clearly it was the mini budget and the Labour-NZ First-Green Government’s intention to get tens of thousands of kiwi kids out of poverty so their chances of living a rewarding life are significantly increased. Most commentators saw that and commented favourably on the changes.

So what does the Herald Weekend political team talk about?

How Labour is struggling because it did not get a big enough boost in the latest Colmar Brunton poll which is now a week old.

First this was this homily by John Roughan on Saturday. He did that most dangerous of things, he took the latest Colmar Brunton poll at face value even though it is but one set of data points in a series and then drew conclusions which cannot be maintained from a more careful analysis.

He said this:

A new government normally gets a good lift in the first post-election poll. It stands to reason. A certain number of those who didn’t vote for it find the sky hasn’t fallen, they’re finding it interesting to have a change and while they don’t regret their vote, should a pollster phone to ask what party would get their vote if an election was held today, they go with the change.

For all those reasons Labour would have been expecting the polls to wipe out National’s election victory by Christmas. I thought they would, I suspect National thought they would too. But it hasn’t happened. Colmar Brunton’s first sample for TVNZ since the election found 46 per cent would have voted National last week against 39 per cent for Labour, both up 2 per cent on their election results.

National’s own polling, I understand, has the gap narrower but National still ahead, as does Labour’s if I heard its pollster, Stephen Mills, correctly on RNZ this week. What is going on?

But he cherry picked the results. He accurately described the individual Colmar Brunton poll result but ignored the latest Roy Morgan poll which had National’s support crashing to just over 40%, Labour just behind and the Greens on 10%.

He also acknowledged that internal party polling had different results to the Colmar Brunton but still took its one result as gospel.

Then this morning there is this train wreck of a post by Heather Du Plessis-Allan which basically says the same thing as the Roughan piece again relying on the Colmar Brunton poll figures. Embarrassingly for her she gets the figures wrong, Labour received 39% not 38% in the latest poll.

She says that the Government has been “slogging its guts out for weeks, but it hasn’t paid off”. The Colmar Brunton data started being collected three weeks ago and finished on December 5.

She says this:

Maybe voters might’ve rewarded Labour for cracking down on foreign purchases of land and houses. Or delivering a year of free tertiary study. Or ditching National Standards. Or giving Australia the finger over the Manus Island refugees.

But any approval of all that work — and it is a lot of work — hasn’t translated into “Yes I’ll vote for you next time”.

Which is a surprise, because the last two new Governments — John Key’s and Helen Clark’s — had much bigger jumps in support after their first election wins.

It feels like Labour’s honeymoon is over. In fact, it probably didn’t have one. It probably used up its honeymoon during the election campaign. That sucks for Labour. John Key’s went on for years.

The legislation for cracking down on foreign purchases of land was introduced on December 15 and has not yet been enacted.  Free tertiary education has been announced but not yet implemented.  National Standards was ditched this week again after the collection period for the poll data.

And apart from one throw away comment she misses the big news of this week, the announced intention to lift 88,000 kids out of poverty.

She also does not talk about the other aspects of the Colmar Brunton poll that the Government can enjoy, the fact that Jacinda Ardern’s popularity has surged and that most people believe the country is heading in the right direction.

The Herald appears to be attempting to create a meme, that the honeymoon is over and this Government is in trouble.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  The relief that I have sensed in the community since the change of Government has occurred is palpable.  And the right track wrong track result will inevitably lead to further support to Labour unless it changes dramatically.

47 comments on “The Herald is obsessed with the latest Colmar Brunton poll ”

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  1. Jenny Kirk 1
    17 December 2017 at 10:23 am

    Well, you can expect nothing less from John Roughan, and as for Heather du P….. is she even worth reading ?

    • marty mars 1.1
      17 December 2017 at 10:35 am

      Both are bad losers and nasty pieces of work. Like polluted rivers they just give you the runs if you dip into their slow, low, flow.

    • Ed 1.2
      17 December 2017 at 12:43 pm

      Heather du P is not worth reading.

      She only has a job because the owners of the Herald like what she writes.
      The owners are financial institutions. Most seem foreign owned.

      Here are the owners of NZME.

      ‘NZME
      In September 2017, eight substantial shareholders – all financial institutions –
      held 96.58 percent of NZME shares       (table 6). In 2016, the same figure was 85.6 percent. ‘

      Substantial shareholders
      September 2017 Ownership
      New Zealand Central Securities Depository Ltd. 15.74%
      JP Morgan Nominees Australia Ltd 14.32%
      National Nominees Ltd 12.71%
      Auscap Asset Management 14.3%
      HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) 12.34%
      Citicorp Nominees Pty Ltd 10.4%
      Forager Funds Management 6.3%
      UBS Nominees Pty Ltd 5.37%
      Nomura International 5.1%
      Total 96.58%

      (Page 48 of report below)

      http://www.aut.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/765094/JMAD-2017-Report.pdf

  2. Ed 2
    17 December 2017 at 10:31 am

    Take back the media from the finance industry.

  3. Sanctuary 3
    17 December 2017 at 10:33 am

    “…as for Heather du P….. is she even worth reading ?”

    Well, I hardly ever anymore. I didn’t even notice Roughan’s piece.

    Anyway, the Herald’s glory days as the pious face of effective dirty politics is over. So is the dirty politics machine. Jacinda’s grasp of social media means she gets a Facebook audience in the tens of thousands every week. Labour is clearly using social media to end-run around the right wing dominated MSM, and IMHO it is working, If jacinda and Grant Robertson can get 10,000 views of a FB video turning back on Cullen fund payments then the Herald with it’s grossly inflated 30,000 circulation is well and truly f**ked as a political force.

    • adam 3.1
      17 December 2017 at 3:12 pm

      I wonder how much of the herald’s circulation, is the free paper for 6 weeks offer – that the herald throws at people on a regular basis?

  4. cleangreen 4
    17 December 2017 at 10:35 am

    Yes Mickey, “Hope springs eternal”
    This NZ Herald; – is just a “Corporate media rag” and all who contribute to it are sellouts, but Clare Cullan is working on establishing a new public media platform to shame the current media right wing platform by providing a balanced, fair, un-biased media that will force these trumpet media hacks to also begin to provide some balanced coverage otherwise their ratings will sink into a hole along with their ‘paymasters” along with their master propagandist Steven Joyce.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/12/11/67225/clare-curran-is-planning-a-few-shake-ups

    Clare Curran is planning a few shake-ups
    With the Government’s openness and transparency under attack, new Minister Clare Curran has had a busy first few months. She tells Shane Cowlishaw how she plans to shake up both her own colleagues and the broadcasting sector she is now responsible for.
    The new Minister for Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media is running late.
    Returning from Auckland on an early morning flight, Clare Curran is fresh from meeting with the NZ On Air Board and industry stakeholders for the first time as, essentially, their new boss.
    “There’s so much enthusiasm,” she says. “I have to say everywhere I go, outside, every time I give a talk, people are rushing up to me, and this is in the tech environment, in the media environment and also the people who are passionate about openness and transparency…they are just so hopeful and excited.”
    That there’s such enthusiasm from the public broadcasting sector for the new Government is perhaps unsurprising.
    “I know there’s quite a lot of chatter out there in media land at the moment from people scoffing and carrying on saying ‘it’s not enough blah blah blah’, well, gee, it’s a damn sight more than has been invested in decades.”
    Radio New Zealand (RNZ) languished for years under a funding freeze before a boost in the election-year Budget, while the general consensus is that NZ On Air could also do with some extra cash and a clearer remit on who it doles it out to.
    After nine years toiling away in the Opposition, Curran says she has plans to not only make changes in her portfolios but change the way Government as a whole does business.
    Coming up roses for RNZ, looking bleak for TVNZ
    The Labour-led Government will indeed pump cash back into RNZ (referred to as ‘Red Radio’’ by some in the corridors of Parliament).
    Under the current plan, RNZ will likely receive between an additional $20-30 million of a new $38m public media fund with the remainder to be divvied out to other media outlets doing investigative journalism through NZ On Air and an overarching public media funding commission.
    The idea is for that money to be used by RNZ to launch itself into the television space, complementing its already strong radio offering and growing multimedia presence.
    Curran sees it as a ‘lite’ version of Australia’s ABC and says it’s a necessary investment to ensure the survival of public media that has been “hanging on by their fingertips”.
    “I believe that media, the fourth estate, is incredibly important. In a democracy it’s that fourth pillar, and even though there’s a public investment the operational decisions have to be kept very separate from Ministers and Government.”

    • Ed 4.1
      17 December 2017 at 10:38 am

      The Herald is like the Daily Mail in the UK.
      A hate filled tabloid.

      The difference is that in the UK they have the Guardian and the Independent, neither ideal, but so much better than the options here.

  5. Maria Sherwood 5
    17 December 2017 at 10:41 am

    I tweeted to Heather that it will be a long 3 years for her, at this rate. She liked it. Does she thrive in negative comments?

  6. Incognito 6
    17 December 2017 at 11:11 am

    Shallow & myopic, as usual. Like astrologists astronomers in the past they ‘observe’ and draw the wrong conclusion that the Earth is the centre of the Universe. In a more modern fashion, they zoom in on a galaxy many light-years away, light from thousands of years ago, and claim to know the Universe. Their simplistic views of the political realm in New Zealand are outdated and simply wrong.

  7. JustMe 7
    17 December 2017 at 11:45 am

    Many of us know that the NZ Herald is considered the mouth-piece of the NZ National Party. What a shameful example of a tabloid it has demeaned itself to all because it wants to be part of a political party that is equally shameful.
    Within the NZ Herald there appears to be not one so-called journalist who thoroughly questions indepth the now past and failed National government.
    Instead what the NZ Herald churns out like an attack of food poisoning are journalists like Mike Hosking who deem themselves as being the Mouthpiece of the NZ National Party and KNOW ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING.
    One kind of pities the tabloid NZ Herald for what it has become. In its pure obsession to lick the rear end of the NZ National Party it has demeaned every aspect of what is important to the media of the free world. It places greater priority of telling us what Mike Hosking had for breakfast rather than what many low income NZers can expect for the day.
    One time the NZ Herald held a place of respect. What is has demeaned itself to now is one of ridicule and humour. And all because it so wanted the ear of the NZ National Party. Way to go NZ Herald. No-one can take you as seriously as Nick Smith taking paint thinner and then late taking journalists to a traffic island to show as a potential ‘housing estate’.

  8. Ed 8
    17 December 2017 at 12:42 pm

    Heather Du Plessis-Allan is a corporate tool.

  9. greywarshark 9
    17 December 2017 at 1:40 pm

    So what does the Herald Weekend political team talk about?
    How Labour is struggling because it did not get a big enough boost in the latest Colmar Brunton poll which is now a week old.

    Hah! Herald NZ political news for shrunken brains.

  10. swordfish 10
    17 December 2017 at 2:32 pm

    Ha ! You’ve partially anticipated a Post I’m currently working on, Micky

    Only partially, mind

  11. Tanz 11
    17 December 2017 at 2:33 pm

    The Herald was only stating facts and so was Heather DP. She was inherently kind, I thought, and failed to point out that National won the majority vote over both Labour and the Greens combined. Maybe that is why there is no bounce for Labour in the polls? I am not going to vote Labour just because they happen to have been gifted government. John R was kind too, he said the country was heading in the right direction and was very careful about not dissing MMP. (I don’t recall Bill English telling supporters to accept the result, but I may be wrong. LIke we have a choice anyway).

    The Herald helped roll Labour into power, apart from Winston, they deserve a huge Chrissy pressie from the left! The Herald is obsessed because their love-fest for Labour has not extended to the electorate at large, despite Labour now being in govt. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink..

    • Ed 11.1
      17 December 2017 at 2:44 pm

      zzzzzzzzzzzz

    • In Vino 11.2
      17 December 2017 at 5:20 pm

      Tanz – Majority means over half. Minority means under half. Check it out with a dictionary if you need to. National – with no friends of significance remaining, polled under 50%, didn’t they? Go and check it out, and face up to the fact that National won a minority vote, not a majority one. Majority is over 50%, remember?
      It is not rocket science…

      • Tanz 11.2.1
        18 December 2017 at 9:22 am

        Yes, I get your point. I was just stating that 44 percent is higher than 36 percent, which proves that more people wanted National than Labour. NZ First are a centrist party, who took votes from both sides of the political spectrum, so you cant tag them on to the Labour/Green cabal. For the first time in one hundred years the biggest party now sits in Opposition. Hardly a democratic representation of how people voted. Winston simply chose (and what a strange system to give one person such power!), Labour’s so- called ‘win’ is fake. Winston actually won it for them, he won the election, if anyone did.

        Heather DP was just being honest, and also, the start to government has not been wonderful. It’s as though Labour were just not prepared and had no plan. Slogans and soundbites just arn’t enough. People don’t switch their votes simply because the govt happens to be there, they want to see competence, ability and intelligence..

        • One Anonymous Bloke 11.2.1.1
          18 December 2017 at 9:59 am

          For the first time in one hundred years the biggest party now sits in Opposition.

          You are so full of shit. Educate yourself about the results of the 1981 and 1974 elections.

          “No plan”. Hence all the legislation they’ve passed since winning the election and becoming the government. Choke on it.

        • dv 11.2.1.2
          18 December 2017 at 10:09 am

          Yes, I get your point

          AT LAST

          People don’t switch their votes simply because the govt happens to be there, they want to see competence, ability and intelligence.

          Again you get it AT Last
          That why Lab Green and NZ1 WON
          And the Natz LOST!

        • tracey 11.2.1.3
          18 December 2017 at 1:54 pm

          Are you Rip van Winkle?

        • Brian Tregaskin 11.2.1.4
          18 December 2017 at 11:12 pm

          NZ Herald= :-“a bunch of second-rate Mafia bullies”

  12. alwyn 12
    17 December 2017 at 3:02 pm

    I thought that Heather was being particularly kind, if terribly mistaken, when she said
    “Maybe voters might’ve rewarded Labour for cracking down on foreign purchases of land and houses”.
    Really? What have they actually done about houses except to decide they really don’t see what they can do. Any crackdown is purely in the minds of the true believers.
    Jacinda Ardern, during the election campaign promised that the law would be in place “before Christmas”.
    Well what was it and when did it pass through Parliament?

    • Ed 12.1
      17 December 2017 at 3:05 pm

      Is this your best effort at diversion?

      • marty mars 12.1.1
        17 December 2017 at 3:35 pm

        Alwyn would do anything to try to rattle the cage – even weak, insipid, lackluster efforts as above. For alwyn, ed, it’s all about how much noise one can make not intelligent debate or valid points. And I’m sure his wet paper bag effort in reply to this will prove my point. He is known and found lacking in the same way as the Herald.

        • tracey 12.1.1.1
          18 December 2017 at 1:56 pm

          The funny thing is that Key got a “bounce” for doing nothing for a few months… His promised Job Summit to cure the ills of job losses during the GFC didnt happen til 2009 and then turned out to be a raft of laws and subsidies for employers to keep wages down.

  13. SPC 13
    17 December 2017 at 3:20 pm

    The ZB talk radio hosts have a largely pro National audience, and reflecting that, or at least not challenging their world view too much is part and parcel of career life in the commercial media. Most people at home in the day are the oldies who voted National and those managing their property portfolio/businesses.

    John Roughan is old school print privately owned corporate media, pro tax cuts and anti-union mainstream.

    Probably quite at home with the media’s campaign of opposition, winter of discontent, trying to diminish the possibility of a progressive threat posed by the Clark government in 2000 (essentially coercing a no surprises government whereby Labour could enact their ECA reform provided they only acted where they had electoral mandate but no more). And also the pre 2005 election editorial warning voters about a Labour-Green government.

    Highlighting that Labour is polling less than National is to imply a lack of mandate for progressive change. Labour still has a manifesto/coalition agreement to implement all the same.

  14. rod 14
    17 December 2017 at 5:21 pm

    I often wonder what John Roughan really looks like these days, as we’ve had the same photo of him in the Herald for so many years. How about a new one Granny?

  15. eco maori 15
    17 December 2017 at 5:39 pm

    heather du plessie allan is just a national payed troll whom is a gold digger with the IQ of a piece of moss she has not figured out that her intention can be read like a book she should get a job more appropriate for her skills I won’t say what profession because I don’t want to insult these people. Ana to kai

  16. Sparky 16
    17 December 2017 at 6:04 pm

    Isn’t it time to stop spending time with the MSM? Taking notice of them simply encourages more of the same. I have been away from their influence for the last five years and could not be happier.

  17. Matthew Whitehead 17
    17 December 2017 at 7:03 pm

    Given their alignment with the agricultural sector, it’s not surprising National and their client paper are cherry-picking the one poll that looks marginally good for the government.

    This poll, which I am informed is the only one of the recent four (two internals, the Roy Morgan, which had Labour and Greens in a position to ditch NZF, and this CB poll) still gives them sub-30% odds of forming a government, so it’s actually not a good poll in terms of changing the government. It gives about 64.5% chance of retaining a government in a configuration that has expressed support for the Labour Party and has policy compatibility, even with a generous assumption that the Māori Party has a 50% chance of taking one of the Māori electorates off Labour in the next election.

    (The differences between those two numbers, by the-by, is that there is a marginal chance there would be a result where NZF and the Māori Party would have to agree on who gets to govern, meaning NZF would have to give concessions to the Māori Party, who I think they see as their primary adversary. I am fervently hoping such a Parliament never comes to pass, because it would make it genuinely hard for anyone to govern)

  18. mosa 18
    17 December 2017 at 11:22 pm

    I dispensed with handing over my money for these newspapers a long time back when it became clear that balanced journalism and non partisan reporting were clearly not on the agenda for these publications and are only read by the the people that dont think and believe everything they read.

  19. tracey 19
    18 December 2017 at 1:58 pm

    Listened to Hooten this morning on RNZ. he sounded positively commie compared to HDA and Roughan and Armstrong.

    I note Gower resigned as Newshub editor or newsroom (?) at same time as Hosking left Seven Sharp.

    Coincidence?
    Yes?
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=11957396

  20. Peter 20
    22 December 2017 at 8:20 am

    Get used to it, the powers behind the NZ Herald will do all they can to derail the coalition.