Toil and Trouble.

46 comments on “Toil and Trouble. ”

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1. Les 1

   5 July 2015 at 2:40 pm

   what I can say is that the weakening NZ dollar will help offset any negatives with NZ’s main trading partners.It will also make it easier for us to sell our assets to foreign buyers.
2. G C 2

   5 July 2015 at 2:58 pm

   China could float their currency more. America is always accusing China of manipulation their currency to keep it low.

   Does New Zealand own shears in stocks on the Shanghai Exchange? China are more of a trading partner than a capital investment maybe? Though you’re right to give the Australian example. China’s demand for raw materials from AUS is diminishing, which is having real detrimental economic affect their.

   One of the keys to supporting the NZ economy is to support start-ups, sole traders and small businesses. An economy focused only on international trade – neglecting the domestic economy is sure to see an impoverish society.
   • David 2.1

     5 July 2015 at 3:25 pm

     “. An economy focused only on international trade – neglecting the domestic economy is sure to see an impoverish society.”

     Interesting comment given both China and Germany are both economies focused on international trade. The transition of China, in particular, to a more consumer society is not going to happen without some pain.

     We, as always, live in interesting times.
     • G C 2.1.1

       5 July 2015 at 3:40 pm

       China and Germany are focused on their domestic economy. Arguably China is moving towards/increasing their internal, consumer based economy.

       Germany has always been about domestic ‘public works projects’. Their banks (Deutsche Bundesbank) are now over extended due to their obsession with the Euro-Zone.

       NZ’s domestic economy shouldn’t be so dependent on international trade – it should be bolster by it.

       Unfortunately, international loans demand interest payments – that’s no excuse though either.
   • Lloyd 2.2

     5 July 2015 at 11:23 pm

     The Chinese stock market is basically a place where state-owned companies can raise money to use for development. The true value of Chinese companies is in the requirements of the Party. The stock exchange is basically irrelevant.
3. Atiawa 3

   5 July 2015 at 3:32 pm

   The ENSCO 107, a jack- up rig has recently completed its exploration programme off the Taranaki coast. It will not be returning to Singapore due to the high number of ships and other rigs sitting idol in that area. Once it is jacked down it will be towed to Port Taranaki where it will remain until………….?
   • David 3.1

     5 July 2015 at 4:13 pm

     Until it has work elsewhere.

     Is that the answer you were looking for?
     • greywarshark 3.1.1

       6 July 2015 at 9:45 am

       I think that Atiawa had looked beyond your simple answer David. Why are the rigs tied up? Because demand for oil is going down because of recessions around the world, uncertainty. by business. Next question. And how is that going to pan out? Atiawa did not want to say definitely. The unwritten word, collapse, of our trading certainties and supply of money with a change to demand perhaps? And a revealing of our naked economy, as a rather convoluted ponzi scheme?
4. G C 4

   5 July 2015 at 4:27 pm

   Economic Idea:

   I’d love, just love to see the New Zealand Government sponsor one or two huge ‘data centres’ dedicated to public web-hosting. This would be a huge help to Ecommerce and the IT Sector.

   The details would need to be hammered out, however it’s a legitimate idea. It could see the government’s tentacles extended more into freedom of speech/trade though.
   • David 4.1

     5 July 2015 at 4:40 pm

     Is there a shortage of web-hosing data centres?
     • G C 4.1.1

       5 July 2015 at 5:28 pm

       Yes with regard to more efficient servers, yes-&-no with regard to stock-standard web-hosting servers. The demand for high quality hosting will only increase.
       • Redelusion 4.1.1.1

         5 July 2015 at 10:03 pm

         If it’s a good idea GC go and get the funding and make it happen. why are you asking the tax payer to underwrite your idea, I thought you where against corporate welfare
         • G C 4.1.1.1.1

           5 July 2015 at 10:21 pm

           Redelusion I’ve already said: “I’m not suggesting the government subsidise the IT Sector – there’d be an expectation that such data-centres be turning a profit.”

           This would be akin to an infrastructure project. I’m for New Zealand moving forward and developing it’s ITC Sector.
           • Redelusion 4.1.1.1.1.1

             5 July 2015 at 10:37 pm

             But if it such a good idea and profitable, pick it up yourself, why get government to do it, if its profitable it fails the public good, market failure test so no need for government to get involved Capitalist love profit so will be all over it in regard to funding, debt or equity, do you really want Steven Joyce running it😀
             • One Anonymous Bloke …

               6 July 2015 at 6:13 am

               As has been demonstrated time and time again (for eg: Max Bradford, ACC), the public sector can (despite National Party incompetence and malice) deliver services more efficiently than the private sector.

               Whether the public sector should get involved in web hosting is another matter; myths about private sector superiority can be dismissed without a second glance.
             • G C …

               6 July 2015 at 2:18 pm

               It might be more of a private initiative. Typically with data centres they’re invested in by one company and they don’t like shearing their servers (unless you’re a user).

               Facebook, Google, NSA, etc – all very closed to letting developers use their space. Saying that, google drive, gmail, maps, etc are wonder services.

               I’d love to develop a similar yet more open data-centre for NZ Businesses, however I’m having enough trouble getting my wee e-commerce site launched lol 🙁 I wouldn’t know where to start fundraising (one hundred million at least) either.

               I think it would be a win for NZ though 🙂
       • greywarshark 4.1.1.2

         6 July 2015 at 9:53 am

         Perhaps IT needs to be hosed down? Restrain its feverish growth, and cool the eagerness to spend big on expensive new systems that come with new problems that accumulate with some still remaining from the old ones so that the expected shiny outcomes are partly achieved but at a greater price than assessed.

         This on top of rorting by Peter-Principle managers who China would probably shoot. Better management of present systems, with more computer engineers to monitor them and enable efficiency and lower productivity because of squeezing the value from them. That would result in less extravagance on new sytems.
   • Ad 4.2

     5 July 2015 at 4:54 pm

     What would you get that you wouldn’t get from sites like this that already do a good job, and don’t cost a taxpayer dime?
     • G C 4.2.1

       5 July 2015 at 5:05 pm

       Having your data (web-site) stored in NZ, optimised speed (plugging into Southern Cross Cable), unlimited volumes of traffic.

       Also it would enable the emergence of bigger IT Companies. TradeMe certainly wouldn’t be renting server space in NZ.

       I take your points, but still think the idea has potential. Many rent server space outside of New Zealand. I’m not suggesting the government subsidise the IT Sector – you’d be an expectation that such data-centres be turning a profit.
       • Naturesong 4.2.1.1

         5 July 2015 at 9:30 pm

         Government Communications Security Bureau Act 2003 &
         Telecommunications (Interception Capability and Security) Act 2013

         All your IP exposed to the US
       • dukeofurl 4.2.1.2

         6 July 2015 at 11:29 am

         Heard of Mega, KDC s data hosting service ?

         Maybe we could call in someone who has experience in this area, if only we could find some way to get web entrepreneurs to move here and set up their business here ?
         if there was only some way ….???
5. Sable 5

   5 July 2015 at 5:15 pm

   China is I suspect not too worried, its growth is still solid. The US on the other hand is 18 trillion in debt expected to blow out to $25 trillion in the next 4-5 years.

   As to this place well, simply put, its stuffed. It will get even worse after the pillage and plunder (TPP) deals go through which will give the bankrupt old hobo that is the US, Carte Blanche to bleed us dry.

   Ticket on the economic Titanic anyone?
   • G C 5.1

     5 July 2015 at 5:46 pm

     Perhaps the Russians would like our dairy products.
     • greywarshark 5.1.1

       6 July 2015 at 10:18 am

       GC
       Are you referring to our 20th century trading on barter systems with Russia for Lada cars etc in return for our dairy, mainly butter?

       Perhaps we could do the same with Greece, the small countries supporting each other? Greek olive oil for frozen lamb?

       Compare us and other small countries in OECD.
       http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/hungary/
   • greywarshark 5.2

     6 July 2015 at 10:13 am

     Sister country – Greece?

     Or look at others that have been run down – by communism instead of capitalism.
     A quote from impressions of Helen Brown in Europe about 1996? In Deep – Tales from over the horizon.)

     Hungary –
     “In a country where 50% of families with more than two children are impoverished, it’s unlikely [they] know the meaning of luxury. Sadly, as more Hungarians find their incomes dragging further behind inflation, poverty’s increasing. Those who are able, work in two or three places for up to 19 hours a day. Population and life expectancy are on the decline.
     [The mother and I] exchanged smiles. Kids and mums do pretty much the same the world over. Only politicians and warmongers would have us believe different.”

     Hungary these days? Out of communism they still are struggling though very well-educated. Further points on the OECD Better Life Index series. (Look at NZ
     and see if it matches your impressions.)

     In NZ, amongst other causation, control of inflation impoverishes people by using depressed wages to keep inflation down. And ordinary people work long, irregular and anti-social hours when we can get work. The modern espoused idea of work-life balance is not a widespread doctrine.
6. Ovid 6

   5 July 2015 at 6:26 pm

   Typical boom and bust. Their stock market grew by 149% in the year to June 12 – but given the fall in their demand for steel predates that – indicating a reduction in manufacturing and construction – it seems that growth was on shaky foundations from the start.

   Now with a milk glut and Europe on shaky ground over Greece, I think a recession is on the cards.
   • G C 6.1

     5 July 2015 at 6:46 pm

     -minus- Canterbury Rebuild
     -minus- Auckland property boom/bubble

     Where would we be?
   • Redelusion 6.2

     5 July 2015 at 10:18 pm

     Stock markets are notoriously volatile in the short term, more so individual stocks and markets

     Markets can vary by up to 40 pc with black swan events yoy etc, however over 100 years of data indicate that stocks ( the market )on average grow at 6 to 8pc yoy. as long as you are well diversified against country risk , industry risk, large cap, small cap, value vs growth and take a long term view you are ok!, dollar averaging is also sensible investment strategy Dont try To guess the market, take to much leverage or listen to active traders ( this year star is next years mug) Likewise don’t panic during times of volatility By listening to people like bill
     • G C 6.2.1

       5 July 2015 at 10:23 pm

       Valid Points
     • Lara 6.2.2

       7 July 2015 at 7:33 pm

       Yeah right. So long as you don’t buy at the high…. and try to hold on during a crash. When all equities fall.

       Fine in the long term. Unless you want to talk to the people who go bankrupt in crashes; Black Monday leading to the huge crash 1929, or in NZ the 1987 crash.

       You don’t want to be holding ANY equities when that hits. Unless you’re short.
7. BM 7

   5 July 2015 at 6:30 pm

   http://goo.gl/tZk5Os

   if will bounce off 3375

   Hardly surprising though there’s being a fall it’s pretty much doubled in value over the past year.
   • Weepus beard 7.1

     5 July 2015 at 6:42 pm

     It will be a dead cat bounce and New Zealand will be in a world of trouble.

     We’ll have a new flag, though!
     • BM 7.1.1

       5 July 2015 at 6:49 pm

       You reckon?, not that i’m following the stocks, indexes.

       Fibonacci ratios, surprising accurate they are for entry exit points
       • Weepus beard 7.1.1.1

         5 July 2015 at 7:47 pm

         not that i’m following the stocks, indexes

         Righto. You were the one who posted the graph.
         • BM 7.1.1.1.1

           5 July 2015 at 7:50 pm

           I use to follow stocks, fx etc , once you know how to read a chart , it’s a bit like riding a bike, you don’t forget.
     • Paul 7.1.2

       5 July 2015 at 6:52 pm

       Once Key’s signed the TPP, he’ll be to Hawaii for golf with his bankster mates.
     • G C 7.1.3

       5 July 2015 at 6:53 pm

       “a dead cat bounce” I’m literally laughing out loud. Too funny 🙂 – I’ve never heard such an expression – that’s priceless
       • lprent 7.1.3.1

         5 July 2015 at 8:31 pm

         It is an old financial term

         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce
8. SteveW (no space) 8

   5 July 2015 at 9:06 pm

   The NZ domestic economy isn’t what it used to be. Much of it is now dominated by multinationals, so the score for new entrants is reduced and the barriers to entity greater. Canada went through this 30 years ago.
9. vaughan little 9

   6 July 2015 at 4:03 am

   three people to follow on the Chinese economy are Michael Pettis, Patrick Chovanec and Victor Shih. they write well and often humorously. respectively at mpettis.com, @prchovanec and @vshih2
   • Tracey 9.1

     6 July 2015 at 10:21 am

     how did they go predicting the gfc?
10. vaughan little 10

    6 July 2015 at 4:07 am

    …and re: the stockmarket, the former two have said that it will have no effect on global financial markets . the crash might hurt consumer confidence though which I’m guessing would show up more in tourism figures than milk purchasing.
11. greywarshark 11

    6 July 2015 at 10:32 am

    After cold shouldering by the world financial system – how could Greece maintain its economy at a low base. I looked up local currencies on google. This one on refugee camps could be good. There they are forced to look at basic economics that work for ordinary people.

    http://jrs.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/3/422.abstract
    Refugee camps typically suffer from inadequate means of exchange: hard currency is scarce and quickly finds its way out of the community. In such situations, local demand that could be met with local resources goes unmet. This article evaluates local currencies (also known as community or complementary currencies) as a policy instrument available to address this problem. A local currency fosters economic activity and generates employment by ensuring that a baseline of local demand is met by local supply. A local currency also fosters local pride…
    • dukeofurl 11.1

      6 July 2015 at 11:40 am

      Greece’s biggest industry is Tourism.

      Do you have any idea of their economy ? They are not 1970s Albania
      • greywarshark 11.1.1

        6 July 2015 at 8:50 pm

        You completely miss the point duke. It only appears that they are not 1970s Albania because of the financial instruments they can draw on. They have taken a loan too far, and now we see that the Emperor doesn;t have any clothes under his/her fancy cloak. Talking about basic monetary policy might be good for all of us, borrow now and repay later artists, instead of the pump-prime injections of foreign investment in things we should, and could, do for ourselves.

        Actually they are closer to Albanian financial level than appearances indicate.
12. Jenny Kirk 12

    6 July 2015 at 8:34 pm

    There you are, Bill – wee Johnny’s still relaxed about NZ’s non-rockstar economy !

    As per TV3 News tonight :
    Economists who are speculating about a recession should “take a deep breath” and consider what’s going on in the economy apart from the dairy industry, Prime Minister John Key says. “I’m not at all panicked about what I see,” he told reporters today.

    More fool him. But then he doesn’t really care about NZ – does he ?

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