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TV3 poll shows movement

Written By: - Date published: 8:31 pm, October 10th, 2008 - 28 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

From TV3

A full 3 News political poll shows Helen Clark is back up off the canvas, while John key has taken a significant blow, in the very week he tried to land one using tax cuts….

Labour has been 12 points behind in the 3 News Poll since March 2007. Now that gap has halved to six, meaning it may not be exit stage left after all.

National had expected some narrowing of the gap and will want to stop the slide turning into a collapse.

With economies everywhere in crisis we asked voters who do you trust to best manage New Zealand for the next three years?

28 comments on “TV3 poll shows movement”

  1. higherstandard 1

    Is it just me or did Garner come across as like a breathless young supporter of the Labour party ?

    TV1 and TV3 seem to be different camps although it does depend on the individual reporters I s’pose.

  2. Janet 2

    No, more like a breathless young supporter of the Maori Party (who would hold the balance of power under this poll).

  3. Lew 3

    HS: Journos get excited whenever big stuff happens. And it’s not as if Garner is some wet-behind-the-ears neophyte, nor as if he’s a Labour partisan. I have recordings of him being positively ghoulish (`She’s going to cut his throat’, etc.) about Helen Clark’s probable response to the Benson-Pope affair.


    [for Lew’s sake, I should point out his recordings are from broadcasts, not secret recordings 🙂 .SP]

  4. Carol 4

    A comment from Throng:


    “Is it my imagination or is John Key not wearing his seatbelt in the National ad? Surely that’s worse than Aunty Helen speeding to a rugby game.”

    Reply on Throng: “I just watched this ad again in light of your comment, and you’re right, he’s NOT wearing a seatbelt!!!! not very socially responsible John.

    and what’s with the singing poncy kids?”

  5. Hi, you guys have bene reporting on polls lately, I wonder why?

    [brett you write about what you want on your site, we’ll write about what we want to on our blog. SP]

  6. Sorry guys but look closer. He is wearing a seatbelt. With my zero tolerance for crime policy I’d be all over him myself if he wasn’t!

  7. LRM 7

    Is it just me, or are all those little choir kids drinking coffee while Key’s chatting to them? The little boy with no teeth looked disappointed with his cup – perhaps he got de-cafe instead of full strength.

  8. deemac 8

    what’s Brash playing at, contradicting Key’s call for an interest rate cut? sour grapes anyone?

  9. r0b 9

    Well this is interesting. I didn’t really believe the Roy Morgan poll, but combined with this TV3 it seems that a fairly significant shift may have occurred.

    If so, it is good news. National’s foolish tax cut package (gutting Kiwisaver’s long term saving and investment, killing research funding) has shown, as if any further proof were needed, just what a backwards step a National government would be for NZ.

    So thank you to every voter who is turning from National to some other party (even better if it is Labour or Green!). Thank you indeed, I think it is a wise move for NZ.

  10. ak 10

    Wise and inevitable r0b: kiwis are essentially imbued with fairness and good old number 8-wire common sense, and were never going to vote their mokos’ future away on a slick fish-eyed kid and the gang who brought us the nasty nineties.
    I pray the Maori Party retains the balance – and that the tories retain their arrogance: the only threat now to our proud land’s advance is Orewa One revisited – and the bastards will do it in a blink if they feel the true pulse. Labour needs to be wary: as you noted earlier, this is no time for complacency.
    Thankyou Hels: your dedication, strength, and purity of motivation will benefit so very many for so very long.

  11. Dan 11

    I get the impression the the whole ‘shift to the right’ has largely been based on nzherald.co.nz’s ‘Your Views’ section, which is the online equivalent of retarded talkback radio. The few and far between well-thought out arguments are drowned in a blue sea of idiocy and trolling. Even most of those whose hearts are in the right place are largely illiterate and unable to further an argument in any useful way.

  12. T-Rex 12

    Isn’t it just beautifully ironic that Captain all fanfare no substance John Key is probably having his chance to exploit short term “me” sentiment undone by the economic downturn of which he, himself, was a leading architect? I love it. The economic downturn I don’t love so much, but that’s part of the cycle of the world we live in at the moment and precisely why it’s good to have people like Cullen holding the purse strings.

    Even with these two polls it is still too soon to claim victory, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they’re accurate, and I expect them to get SMASHED once the tax package comes out. There were a lot of very pragmatic people being interviewed about 6 months ago saying things like “I’m going to wait to see who offers the best thing for me”. Johns been riding the wave for many months now (and even then not terribly adeptly), I’ve got a feeling the next few weeks are gonna be alllll beach break.

    I may have said this before, but…


    To all those New Zealanders who have been biding their time and waiting to see what cards are really on the table: Thankyou. You are exactly what a healthy democracy needs, and you restore my faith in humanity. National haven’t changed, and now they’re having to pay the piper for 8 months of smiles and vague promise. Where by “promises” I, of course, mean “outright lies”.

    Burn English, Burn.

    [lprent: I was feeling like some maniacal cackling as well. But I’m now back to the rest of the campaigning]

  13. T-Rex 13

    To clarify re: the above before someone calls me an out of touch moron – I mean once the impact of the tax package starts to be reflected in polls, rather than these recent ones which despite being disastrous for National don’t even reflect the reaction to the tax package yet. I do realise they’ve released it.

    Ahhh. It’s gonna be beautiful. I can feel the warm glow of a lead baloon sinking so fast that atmospheric friction is turning it to plasma.

  14. Isn’t it just beautifully ironic that Captain all fanfare no substance John Key is probably having his chance to exploit short term “me’ sentiment undone by the economic downturn of which he, himself, was a leading architect?

    T-rex have you been reading my the things John Key doesn’t want you to know post?

    That’s only part 1, Part two deals with his personal involvement in the Asian crisis, the collapse of Russia and the LTCM crisis. And boy was he involved. Absolutely to the gills. This is how rotten Merrill lynch was all the time John Key was one of the big bosses. Corruption doesn’t happen over night, it’s a culture. In the case of the Wall street banksters one that started when Alan Greenspan took over the Federal Reserve in 1987 the very year John Key started to work for the Bankers trust again one of the most corrupt banks of it’s days.

    Part 3 is about his involvement with the bonds and derivatives business. As global boss for forex and bonds and derivatives he was at the cradle of this disaster and he guided this monstrous child until well into puberty and well beyond any chance of repair before he left Merrill Lynch.

    And I wonder what he was whispering in the ears of Alan Greenspan as one of only four advisors. Alan Greenspan who is now seen as the biggest architect of the collapse of the western financial system.

    You want to be careful though. When I said a bout five six months ago that John Key was a leading architect of the disasters awaiting us I was immediately condemned as a “Conspiracy nutter”. Lol.

    And while I’m glad that people are coming around to my way off thinking the consequences of John Key’s and his Wall street banking
    buddies greedy actions could proof disastrous for the rest of the worlds working stiffs.

    And T-rex, now that you have to concede that perhaps my views on John Key weren’t as outrageous as they once seemed perhaps you could have another look at WTC 7

  15. outofbed 15

    I happen to think the TV3 poll is rogue poll as the Greens must be on much more than 6.9% 🙂

  16. Perhaps my father in law,

    A man who believed in frugal living and who denied himself and his family any luxury in order to save up for a rainy day only to see it wiped out overnight this week when he wanted to sell his house which had been valued to 600.000,- some four years ago and he realised that either it would not sell or it would sell for a pittance because the seaside resort where he lives has become a ghost town with everybody and a donkey racing to sell their inflated speculative beach resort mansions before the crash, should do the same as California and other US states are contemplating; Suing Wall street. Perhaps he should consider suing John Key.

  17. higherstandard 17

    600k in a luxury seaside resort sounds like a bargain to me – where is he in NZ – I’d be interested in looking at the property if he’s wanting to sell up.

  18. HS,

    It’s not a luxury seaside resort and it’s not a luxury pad but it has a view to die for. I doubt if you could handle the greeny image of the place but hey, you might find it refreshing. LOL.
    If you’re interested leave a comment on my blog where I can reach you. That information will never be released. Cheers.

  19. T-rex 19

    Back the truck right the f*ck up there Trav.

    I have not been reading your website.

    Back when I DID look through it, which I’ve probably done two or three times since we first spoke, the posts seemed to fall into three categories.

    1. Things that are pretty bad, which most people who know about them agree are bad (e.g. oil companies are environmentally irresonsible, corporations hate having to internalise costs etc)

    2. Things that are bad, and most people who know about them agree exist, but opinions vary wildly in magnitude (e.g. economic collapse magnitude and likely outcomes)

    3. Things that have wildly conflicting and divergent viewpoints and questionable reasoning.

    I’ve phrased the above in a manner to avoid implying your opinions are any less valid than mine 🙂

    Anyway, I’d put our respective views of Key into category two. I’m referring to the fact that he’s a morally bereft prick who has no problem profiting from the suffering of others, which given his openly disclosed history is basically obvious. He’s spent his life wheeling and dealing in a manner identical to that presently causing the global downturn (Don’t worry though everyone – Bush has vowed to stabilise the US economy and GW’s word is his bond!), and has basically spent years and years contributing to the problem we’re now experiencing.

    I’m making no comment as to his level of involvement, because I’ve done no research and have no idea. Unlike most of our debates, I honestly don’t care whether he was involved or not. I think it’s patently obvious he’s not fit to be put in charge of a wheelbarrow anyway. However, if you’ve found some real (and qualified, referenced, provable) dirt on him then don’t put it on your website, give it to the media now and see if you can get National down below 30%.

    As to concessions though… I’m conceding nothing on Key as I’ve never actually disputed the magnitude of his crimes, I have no position TO conceed.

    Even if I did, that’d have no impact at all on my views on anything relating to WTC7. New evidence would help, but I’m not reading any more of your links on the issue as they almost invariably are videos created by some bored highschooler with no grasp of science and drive me nuts.

    So chill! But send all your key-dirt to 3 news… just be sure to sumarise it with a nice 1 paragraph leadin, because they’re unlikely to read one of your essays unless their interest is aroused 🙂

  20. T-rex,

    Good tip about the gripping first paragraph thanks.

    The link I gave was a clip of 6 minutes from a mainstream Italian Documentary shown on mainstream Italian TV. Low mature male voices of journalists actually doing their job instead of our parroting NZ light weights.

    You see contrary to the NZ blackout 911 questions are asked by every major TV sender around the world. Go on give it a shot. If 30 million Russians can watch a 911 documentary on their mainstream TV senders and 85% of all Americans want a new investigation than there surely must be something to the doubt we have about the events of 911. Ex German, Japanese and English ministers specialised in al that spook stuff, American Senators thousands of scientists, architects, fire fighters, pilots, first responders can’t all be Conspiracy nutters.

    And you really should read my post on John Key’s involvement with Andrew Krieger. It clearly shows through articles from the online NY Times archive that the timeline John Key gives can’t possibly be true and he must have been the account manager who helped Andrew Krieger successfully attacked the NZ dollar in 1987 almost to the point of collapsing the NZ Economy.

    He is even more of a morally bereft prick (seriously to the point description of the man) in that he was happy to assist an American almost destroying his own country’s financial and economic system for his own financial gain and lying about it twenty years later.

    And you chill too T-rex, you’re so easily wound up, sometimes it just proves to be beyond temptation to go there. LOL

  21. RedLogix 21


    On the day of 911 I recall phoning my older daughter around midday. Over the years I’ve known her to be very intuitive and insightful about what is really going on, quick at decoding hidden agendas that oftentimes I would miss.

    One thing she said that day has stuck with me very clearly. She said, “It’s big show … just a magic trick to make us all frightened”.

    No she’s not 911 Troother/Nutter. She’s almost never bothered mentioning the topic since, because in her mind she knows the official story was big lie and she’s had more important things in life to get on with. (Like getting a Master’s Degree in Science.)

    So even before WTC7 collapsed the seeds of scepticism were planted in my mind. In that first few years afterwards I read almost everything about 911 I could find on the net. (I believe that I was likely one of the first people to suggest the use of thermite or some hi-tech variant to the person known as PlaguePuppy way back in 2002.)

    There is no question that the official story about 911 is deeply deficient. But the really interesting questions have nothing to do with the collapse of the WTC buildings. These days I regard all the attention directed on that topic as largely misdirected. In the abscence of the truth, there has been a lot of speculation, and much of it is wrong. Amateur, non-technical people are easily taken in by plausible disinformation.

    Like Al Capone eventually being pinged, not on his numerous murders, but on a tax matter… I believe that it is in the back story, the incredible web of coincidences and intrigues that litter the timeline leading up to and beyond the day of 911 itself, that is where the fatal smoking gun will eventually come to light.

  22. randal 22

    hey you guys…there are websites for nutters who believe everything against the grain. do you do it just because you want to piss other people off or because somehow you have an innate disopostion to recast all events in the negative and thus prove yourself right and the rest of the world wrong?

  23. RedLogix 23

    dearest randal,

    I’m not a nutter. Really. In almost every aspect of my life I am a rather conventional person. I hold an Engineering Degree (if somewhat aged and tattered), I’ve been employed all my life in responsible and senior corporate roles, or as an independent contractor/consultant. I attend church most Sundays, I own several small properties, and in most respects I’m a deeply ordinary person. I don’t particuarly enjoy pissing people off or going against the grain for the sake of it.

    But you are right in this one sense. Most of my life I have felt that the modern world (although admirable and fantastic in many respects) is built on a fatally flawed foundation. I spotted this great line attributed to Ghandi the other day:

    “Speed is irrelevant, if you are travelling in the wrong direction.”

    For decades people from Soros on have been warning us that the neo-liberal capitalist machine was heading for the abyss. They were ignored. Yet dismissing them as nutters has not prevented the plunge over the edge we have witnessed this week.

    Those of us who are set against the grain are not necessarily right, but neither are we inherently wrong either.

  24. randal 24

    too true red…but my own daughter arrived in the apple on the day, looked out the window and saw it all. no doubt in her mind whatsoever. glad you have mangaged to aquire some ‘things’ red but ya cant take ’em wif ya. enjoy it now.

  25. Draco T Bastard 25

    Most of my life I have felt that the modern world (although admirable and fantastic in many respects) is built on a fatally flawed foundation.

    Yeah, it’s called capitalism.

    I’m actually starting to wonder if National could break the 30% mark in the election. I certainly hadn’t expected them to drop this far so early.

  26. Redlogic,

    Well done your daughter. I agree that for most people there are more important things in live. But for me the attacks are still ongoing.
    Last week a New Zealand soldier died in a bomb blast. What if he could have been home with his family instead if there had been a real and independent. If anything NZers should be concerned that young lives are being sacrificed in a war that has been acknowledged is unwinnable and deteriorating badly and could have been started under false pretences.

    70.000 first responders are dying because of horrific diseases without healthcare.
    Two countries have been contaminated with DU in wars based on lies (and not just 911). The financial crisis is amongst others the direct result of total deregulation, greed and the humongous war debts racket up because of the same people who are in the top of the banking world who are also on the boards of the military industrial complex and made huge profits from both wars.

    The same people who just ordered thousands of troops back to America to help with “crowd control” in direct violation of the posse comitatus act.

    The banking world was deep involved with the pre 911 short trading indicating huge fore knowledge.
    It is the same people who now want one international banking institution that can regulate money world wide without any oversight of us the people. A de facto super powerful uber gubernatorial powerhouse with under it’s control armies and resources beyond our imagination.

    By the way banks involved in the foreknowledge betting
    Merrill Lynch and Bankers Trust.
    Anyone that closely related to that thoroughly sick, greedy world I watch with the utmost mistrust. Hence my mistrust of mr. money man Key. And his lying and weaselling does nothing to elevate that mistrust

  27. Randall,

    The only thing dummer than asking questions is not to ask them.

    And that’s all we do. Banking institutions have been fingered as having foreknowledge and have been involved in making millions of dollars by betting on just about all the corporations involved.
    One of the bankers from Bankers Trust became the director of operations of the CIA in March 2001. That is one of the banks John Key worked for. The Bank bet on the fact that Merrill lynch would loose in the stock market. The date around about 911. The day before 911 an alarm was given over the strange stock market movements. How sick is that? Someone knew what was about to happen and all he or they thought to do was make a bundle of it. And no they have not traced it back to bin Laden.

    That is the shady secretive world around the Wall street bankers including our prime ministerial hopeful are used to living in.

    John Key lies, meets in secret with powerful international operators and he gets caught wheeling and dealing in dubious, and possibly with inside knowledge, shares while in a powerful position to help himself to the cookie jar.

    Whether you like it or not something really bad happened on 911.

    The official theory is a fallacy and some of it seems to have spawned from the same abyss that is now causing a world wide financial collapse and it is from the same abyss that John Key has emerged just at the right moment to take over from Labour which for all intends and purposes has defended the NZ against the worst of international takeovers and just at the right time for his international banking buddies to takeover what is left of our real wealth while their speculative wealth is dissipating.

    It’s what they did in the US, Europe and the Asian and Latin emerging economies and they will do it here. First by easy credit for infrastructure and than by busting the bubble, forcing us to sell or be damned.

    Like Redlogic I’m remarkably normal.

    I have never spend time on any of the other conspiracies i.e. moon, alien and other such crap. I live in a small community were I have a veggie patch and a husband and a market stall. I just happened to google 911 one day because on the day itself I said to my husband that the collapse was a controlled demolition and it stuck. It took me about a year before I could admit to my self that the official theory could not have happened and the connection to the Wall street banking elite scares the shit out of me. That’s all.

  28. mondograss 28

    TravellerEv, the soldier didn’t die in a bomb blast. He suffered cuts to his face and was retured to active duty. Please try to get your facts right.

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  • Taita College to benefit from $32 million school redevelopment
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  • Redeployment for workers in hard-hit regions
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  • New District Court Judge appointed
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  • $206 million investment in upgrades at Ohakea Air Force Base
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  • Review of CAA organisational culture released
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  • New Board appointed at Stats NZ
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  • New Principal Environment Judge
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  • Digital connectivity boost for urban marae
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  • Investment in New Zealand’s history
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