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TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:06 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 162 comments
Categories: labour, national, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags: , , ,

The October TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll is out.

The last poll, in August, had National on 45%, Labour on 42 and the Greens 6 and NZ First on 5.

This time, it’s a horror show for National:

The Tories have plunged to 43%

Labour are on 45%, up 3. The Greens are up to 7%. That’s 68 seats without Winston’s input.

Preferred PM has Simon Bridges on 7%, one sixth of Jacinda Ardern’s support. Judith Collins features for the first time in ages, at 5%.

National Party leader Simon Bridges claimed it was because of “toughest, worst week in living memory for National and I think for any leader”.

The problem for Simon is that the week from hell was pretty much all his own work.

Still, the opposition leader for the time being is looking to the future.

“We’ve got to get back to talking about what matters for New Zealanders,” Simon says, really convincingly.

162 comments on “TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll ”

  1. Sacha 1

    The lag means the effects of last week’s horrorshow will not show up for a few more. Farrar floating a drop of 10% was always going to mean the result was way better for his bosses.

  2. mickysavage 2

    Interesting. The trend will hurt.

    This is a barely sustainable result for Bridges. If National dips below 40% the BBQs will be fired up.

    • Fireblade 2.1

      Based on this Poll:

      Labour would have 54 seats and could govern with the Green Party’s 8 seats.

      NZF would have 6 seats.

      National would have 53 seats and even with ACT’s presumed 1 seat, it could not govern. Even with NZF, they still couldn’t govern.

      That’s National’s Reality.

    • cleangreen 2.2

      Um—- On the barbecue will be a ” barbequed right wing of a tory” then?

      yummy, – that sounds delicious.

  3. BM 3

    The Tories have plunged to 43%

    Don’t be a tool 🙄 that’s margin of error stuff.

    Be a lot of disappointed left-wing reporters out there, obviously, their week-long hit job meant shit and apart from the political tragics no one gives a fuck about what they write.
    Dickheads.

    Just need to get rid of Simon and it’s majority National in 2020.

    • Yep, all you have to do is replace the leader. That worked for Labour … at the fifth attempt.

      Face it, BM, the next National Prime Minister isn’t in Parliament yet. They may not have even been born.

      • BM 3.1.1

        Bridges was the worst choice out of all the candidates that were in the running for leader after English stepped down.

        He only got the nod because English and Key thought he was great and no doubt helped push him into the leadership role.

        They are wrong, time has moved on, their type of politics isn’t a winner anymore, eventually National will realise this and pick the appropriate leader.

        Hopefully before 2020.

        • WILD KATIPO 3.1.1.1

          Well if Bridges was the worst choice, – that really says truckloads about how unwise they are , or that there is a deficit of actual leadership material in the first place.

          I suspect both to be the case.

        • patricia bremner 3.1.1.2

          Gee BM ‘Key and English were wrong’ You got that bit right. Their cardboard copy is a flop.

        • cleangreen 3.1.1.3

          BM;
          The “road transport industry” (RTF) put Bridges into the National leadership place as they ‘heavily lobby for “road friendly candidates” as “no bridges” was.’

          Steven Joyce arranged this so you are right Bridges was the worst possible chioce.

          If they had used a pro-road/rail/sea candidate national today would be running the country but they sold out to the trucking industry.

          Our group has done internal polling on a candidates with a transport policy of a combined road/rail/sea policy and they are far more likely to win.

          National ‘clean up your road only policy and you will rise in the polls.’

          .

    • Ed 3.2

      It would be interesting to compare poll results on Monday and Friday….

      • ianmac 3.2.1

        They said that by Wednesday the Poll had a severe drop for National but then started up again.

    • Chris 3.3

      The poll wouldn’t have captured the whole of the crucial period. Importantly, that crucial period is likely to have just begun. That leaves a lot of time for Bridges to make a whole lot more decisions he won’t regret.

      • WILD KATIPO 3.3.1

        If bridges was capable of making idiot decisions this time, what makes you think he wont put his foot in his mouth over and over again. Surely you can see stupidity when it hits you in the face as well as everybody else.

        Oh, and BTW- we welcome Judith.

        • Chris 3.3.1.1

          I said Bridges is likely to continue to make decisions he won’t regret. I didn’t say those decisions wouldn’t be idiot decisions. In fact I pretrty much implied that they would be.

    • Gabby 3.4

      Bodges is the best you’ve got. BMmer.

    • KJT 3.5

      You mean the week of National proving how venal and unprincipled they really are.

      Too the extent that even the National apologists in the media couldn’t ignore it.

      Much as they are trying.

      National getting 40% shows either 1. Many people are ignoring what is going on.
      2. 40% will vote for tax cuts, and crooks, no matter how dishonest and incompetent the proposers are.

  4. Ankerrawshark 4

    Don’t think that’s much of a dent for National…….hard to believe

    • BM 4.1

      Yep, after the last week, I would have expected to see National below 40%.

      Just goes to show how little sway the MSM has these days and how switched off the public is.

      Politcs is for about six weeks every 3 years and outside of that people don’t want to know, it’s the only reason why Ardern is currently PM.

      • Rapunzel 4.1.1

        They dropped to 40% the polsters said mid last week and lifted when the focus went specifically back on Ross on Thur and will dip again as other internal issues are aired this is from RNZ today

        “A text believed to have been sent to Jami-Lee Ross in August by a female MP that Mr Ross had a relationship with has been released today.
        Checkpoint has chosen not to release the exact words of the entire text out of concern for the wellbeing of both MPs. It is not clear what prompted the message.
        However it was sent to Mr Ross at 1:19am on a Saturday morning and concluded by saying: “You deserve to die”.

        So not only are their issues with donations, management of behaviors and Ross NZ has an MP sitting who texts such stuff too, the text was sent back in August not in the heat of lasts weeks revelations.

        • Incognito 4.1.1.1

          They dropped to 40% the polsters said mid last week and lifted when the focus went specifically back on Ross on Thur and will dip again as other internal issues are aired this is from RNZ today [sic]

          How does this work? For example, they poll the first 500 people and National drops to 40% (with a larger margin of error). Then, they poll the second 500 people at 46% to come to the average of 1,000 people at 43%!?

          So, National first drops and then rebounds? And we can just ignore the margin of error?

          It sounds to me like the pollsters are trying to manufacture a nice wee story here and they wouldn’t be the first ones to do so …

      • lprent 4.1.2

        The poll was taken from the 14th to the 19th in the midst of the JLR turmoil. Typically the polling effects of any news story most happen a couple of weeks afterwards except at election time.

        Voters and the polled typically aren’t interested in a realtime basis. They tend to think about things slowlyyyyyyy outside of election time.

        • BM 4.1.2.1

          Voters and the polled typically aren’t interested in a realtime basis. They tend to think about things slowlyyyyyyy outside of election time.

          To be honest, they’re not interested at all and it’s getting worse, how switched off the average voter is actually, quite concerning.

          • Aaron 4.1.2.1.1

            And after the last week’s events even more of them will be switched off – which is exactly what Simon Lusk was hoping for.

            BM you may be a right winger but surely we all need to unite together to rid NZ politics of his influence.

          • KJT 4.1.2.1.2

            Good for National, though.

            If voters were paying attention National would be getting about as many votes as ACT.

      • AB 4.1.3

        “Yep, after the last week, I would have expected to see National below 40%.”

        There was not much chance of that. To most people it would just have looked like a bit of messy bickering inside the Nats. I reckon the only element that had the potential to trigger vote shifting on a scale to put National under 40% in such a short time period was “Chinese influence” – and that quickly got buried by sex and mental health.

        Look at the things that have shifted lots of votes quickly – Brash Orewa and Ardern becoming leader. Basically they tap into a strong, but unexpressed undercurrent of feeling in the electorate. This messy fiasco doesn’t really pass that test. At least not yet – still hoping though!

        • Chris 4.1.3.1

          For all of Ross’ faults, if he sincerely wants to expose the rot within the national party then that surely has to be a good thing. And for that reason he needs his (at least) 21 days, which it looks like he’s going to get.

      • WILD KATIPO 4.1.4

        Praise be to the Chinese Communist party , eh , BM ?

        Along with providing willing workers to fill ( or take jobs from young Kiwi born people ) for all the menial jobs they also provide good cash donations to influence our laws and voter base… gotta love those Blue Dragons, don’t we…

      • Bearded Git 4.1.5

        After a year in power Labour and the Greens can rule on their own. Result!

  5. Dennis Frank 5

    A surprisingly good result for National, I reckon. Much smaller drop than I expected, shows that Nat supporters remain tribal, and only a few centrists shifted, but I suspect Sacha could be proved right and further shifting will show up eventually. The polling started last Monday and continued thro to Friday, so those polled earlier will have a lower disgust level in their minds at the time.

    Bridges, on the other hand, seems doomed by getting 7% compared to Ardern over 40% for preferred PM. Maybe not gone by lunchtime, but Collins coming in on 5% gives her odds over Mitchell to replace him.

    • Anne 5.1

      A surprisingly good result for National, I reckon.

      Don’t forget there is always a lag before the bulk of the voters catch up with a story and start to react. It’s only the sad political junkies like us who immediately react.

      Once upon a time it was accepted as being on average a two month lag, but in today’s world of online social media it is probably only one month.

      • alwyn 5.1.1

        What is your evidence for the claims about this “two month lag”?

        I think that, given the dates of the polling and the MSM reporters rabid stories, this is an amazing result for National.
        Most of the polling would have been done when the only information that those being polled would have were the rah-rah stories about Ross’s claims. The truth, that Ross’s recordings did not back up his claims at all, came after the polling had finished.

        Another poll, in a couple of weeks would, I expect, show a big swing back to National. It would possibly be only a sympathy swing back to a defamed Bridges but I think it would happen.

        I don’t think that there will be another poll for a while though. Funny isn’t it that there were no polls in the depths of Labour’s screwups but they whipped one in when they thought National were collapsing.

        Labour, at least, showed a great deal of sense in keeping well clear of the attacks on Bridges. There may be a kick-back at Winston though.

        • Anne 5.1.1.1

          I’ve been around the political traps for 40 plus years and when I say that was the recognised time lag then… that was the recognised time lag. But in the past couple of decades I imagine it has reduced due to social media.

          Now suck it up.

          • alwyn 5.1.1.1.1

            In other words it is your opinion and you are sticking to it.
            I thought there might at least be some evidence for it in academic studies.
            You sounded so definite that I expected a little more than just an “I say it is so, therefore it must be true”.

            • WILD KATIPO 5.1.1.1.1.1

              You got evidence that isn’t the case, alwyn ?

              Or is that just your opinion ?

              • alwyn

                I don’t have any evidence at all on the subject.
                If I had I wouldn’t have needed to ask my question would I?
                I would have either been able to agree with her comment or dispute it if I had known what evidence there was.
                Unfortunately she wasn’t able to provide the evidence. Pity really. I would love to have known whether there was anything concrete to back her opinion up.

              • Enough is Enough

                Jacinda mania and Orewa is the evidence. Both events resulted in immediate and and longstanding changes to the poll results.

            • Anne 5.1.1.1.1.2

              In other words it is your opinion and you are sticking to it.

              Oh, so you’re calling the entire press pack of the 70s, 80s and 90s and the political scientists of the time liars are you? Don’t think they will like that.

              • alwyn

                Of course I’m not calling such a huge number of people liars.Anne.
                However if the entire Press pack over 30 years and the political scientists of the time all agreed on this there is surely something that was published about it?
                I’m certainly not calling them liars. I don’t know what they said and you don’t seem to be able to point to whatever it was that they believed.
                Political scientists publish their findings. If you are claiming they said certain things over many years what evidence do you have to back your story up?

          • Monty 5.1.1.1.2

            Anne. It’s a modern world. It is not 40 years ago when you had to wait a couple weeks for the pony express to drop off your newspaper. Social media, the internet means people get news even faster than even 10 years ago.

            There is zero lag in the time it takes for an event to happen to people reading about it. Even now Ross is released drops another text out and we all here about it immediately.

            Plus this has dominated all media. People have been saturated with it.

            • WILD KATIPO 5.1.1.1.2.1

              But you are not taking into consideration the smoko room talk and gossip, either. Its when it gets past the social media and into the workaday conversations face to face that opinions are hardened.

              Social media is a fantasy land that does not stand up to the fires of real debate.

              Anne is correct in the time-lag.

              • James Thrace

                Anne is correct

                I have been having conversations this long weekend about the cash for candidates policy that National have in place.
                More than a few people didn’t even realise this was actually a thing that happened because the focus had been on “ILLEGAL RECORDINGS” and “SEX AFFAIRS” rather than $100,000 donations to buy a list seat for Chinese candidates.

                The palpable shock that National were not running a merit based selection process for candidates on the party list was a sight to behold on the faces of some.

                It’s that type of conversation that will harden attitudes. It’ll be a slow burn especially when people start putting two and two together with the latest revelation that the $100K donation has resulted in a potential candidate going to Nationals “Candidate College”

                Candidate College will be the next most interesting thing. What even is it? What do they do?

                • KJT

                  National party candidate College.

                  List of courses.

                  101 Telling lies with a straight face.
                  102 Massaging statistics.
                  103 Backstabbing.
                  104 Hiding bribery.
                  105 Putting up with your fellow members, and staying sane.
                  106 Managing moral conflicts.
                  107 Throwing your fellow Kiwi’s under a bus. Without feeling guilty.

                  Optional papers.
                  201 Getting bribes, sorry, funding, from Chinese and US fat cats.
                  202 Bene bashing 01.
                  203 Bene bashing 02.
                  204 How to avoid “personal responsibility”.
                  205 Arrogance, entitlement and greed. (1001 ways to make you feel better about it).

              • alwyn

                “Anne is correct in the time-lag.”
                Well Anne never produced any evidence for the claim.
                Have you got some or are you just a blowhard saying something you would like to be correct?
                Right then, what is your evidence for the claim.

            • cleangreen 5.1.1.1.2.2

              We will see then eh?

        • KJT 5.1.1.2

          What degree of dishonesty, greed and manifest self interest, do National MP’s need to exhibit, before they lose their voters?

          Before Alwyn wakes up?

    • SPC 5.2

      Most of their support is based on economic self-interest. However much of a shambles the party representing this becomes they will still vote the same.

  6. Brian Tregaskin 6

    National will always have a core support of 43% to 46% no matter what because most people won’t change their party vote., for any reason, whatever happens.

    • Pete 6.1

      You’re right. Key could’ve thrown a baby on the barbecue and not only would they have voted for him, the’ve would’ve put the boot into any neighbours who complained about the smell in the air from it.

      • WILD KATIPO 6.1.1

        Except that Key and co also wooed the immigrant vote and provided National with a steady stream of new arrivals ready and willing to vote for the party that enabled them to pour into the country…

    • Dukeofurl 6.2

      “core support of 43% to 46% no matter what because most people won’t change their party vote.,”

      Except when they didnt and got 20.9%…hahahaha

      You have to have other parties to choose and the ones around in 2002 arent there any more.

      • Aaron 6.2.1

        They dropped to 20.9% because there were several other parties around to absorb the right wing vote – United Future, Act, NZ First were all swiping bits of the their vote.

        Right now when A pollster asks ” who would you vote for if there was an election today” the only answer a right winger can give is National. Everyone is mistaking this for big National Party support but they’ve got pretty much the entire right wing vote sewn up and that vote is no where enough.

        Imagine if the Green Party was erased from history in 2012 and pollsters asked left wingers who they would vote for if an election were held today (in 2012) – that 15% would probably have been forced to pick Labour and Labour would have being flying above the 40% mark and looking pretty good too.

        • Dukeofurl 6.2.1.1

          We saw how that could pan out in Sydney a few days ago. Voters can choose an independent when the main party pick is horrible

    • SPC 6.3

      National got beat 41 to 39 in 2005. And given NZF said pre-election they would go with the larger party … that is losing.

      The core vote was c45% under Key and English, Bridges is not …

      Key had immediate popular support, by 2016 English had more experience than Simon Bridges will ever have in parliament or government.

    • Chris 6.4

      That’s not true. Look at what happened in 2002. The real issue is what parties can recover from. And in that regard what you’re saying has more of an attraction. English polled a record low in 2002, or close to it, then Brash led the party to near victory in 2005. The current fiasco is pretty serious. The nats survived Hager’s expose in 2014. But that was a book. This time it’s unfolding before our eyes. Will be pretty damn interesting to see what happens, especially given the nats’ lack of depth. It certainly ain’t over yet.

  7. Adrian Thornton 7

    I hope that the stark reality of this poll will get through the seemly very thick skulls of the Labour strategists and associated hierarchy that there are no ‘soft’ National votes down the centre.

    Turn labour Left!

  8. Fireblade 8

    Act didn’t register. I guess DWTS didn’t help then.

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/seymour-twerk-v2.gif

    • Pete 8.1

      Act doesn’t have to register anywhere except Epsom. And they will, with Seymour flying in.

      • Dukeofurl 8.1.1

        When your poodle is flea ridden and arthritic you might want to replace it with an enegetic appealing new puppy that will grow up strong…. Bye bye ACT poodle

        • Dennis Frank 8.1.1.1

          Yeah, an interesting space to watch. I think Seymour has been performing surprisingly well & he must find it galling that his performance is getting absolutely no traction for his brand. Ditch that arthritic brand! The smart move for him now is to join National. Do it after private talks with key players in National to establish common cause. If he does it on the basis of a principled rightist platform, he’ll be likely to succeed.

          Under this scenario, he’d abandon Epsom as a trade for whatever they offered him in the mutual-benefit plan. Gives the Nats a chance to put one of their youngsters into Epsom. Probably Goldsmith.

  9. Kat 9

    National has a new breed and mix of supporters and they view the recent debacle within National as perfectly normal and polling will most likely stay around the 36-41% mark up to the 2020 election. That means Labour and coalition partners will win in 2020 and that is when a bigger drop in Nationals poll ratings will occur. When the Labour coalition wins the 2023 election where Nationals vote “plunges” to is anybody’s guess.

  10. WeTheBleeple 10

    I’d give Winston the thumbs up. He let NZ breathe, and we were gasping.

    Under the watch of a smug corporate globalist. The right had to maintain a state of delusion to let so much shit fly for so long. We had to stand by for close to a decade watching a train wreck in slow motion with no ability to stop it.

    The media gave each other awards. The politicians gongs.

    People lost their spirit on both sides.

    Breathe.

    • Awesome.

      That was the truth. Thank goodness for Winston and NZ First .

      I was formerly going to vote Labour when they were struggling, but then along came Adern. So I voted Greens because they were in trouble at that time. But this time round I’m determined to vote NZ First because they are the party I have always most found represent NZ pre the 1984 neo liberal/Douglas treason.

      BTW , – Great choice of music, originally by Uncle Bob . Big fan of Bob and the Wailers. 🙂

      • xanthe 10.1.1

        i also agree Winston is a life saver for NZ politics and Labour anyone who thinks they would be better with Marama has got rocks in their heads . quite sure they will stick with Winston with very good reason.

      • cleangreen 10.1.2

        Me too Wild Katipo.

        We are so disappointed with Labour and greens.

        • KJT 10.1.2.1

          It is Winston that is preventing Labour Greens from enacting a lot of their social and workers rights policies.
          Good if we could have Labour Greens without that handbrake.

  11. Dv 11

    Yes but bridges has got another enquiry going.
    Just remember how the last one worked out!!!!

  12. Michael 12

    A two percent drop is a “plunge”? I think not. Although it’s unwise to draw conclusions from a single poll, doing so indicates to me that National’s support remains solid, while any increase in the Greens’ support is coming from Labour. If Tory voters really are sickened by last week’s events I’d expect more of them to switch to Winston. So far, they haven’t.

    • A further two points from an already unwinnable position is a plunge in my books, Michael. The Tories are 7-8 points shy of where they need to be and their leader is about as popular as toe fungus and their only hope appears to be an MP who can’t muster a quarter of the votes in caucus.

      Remember, this is the Colmar Brunton, which constantly over-rates the Nats and almost without fail finds NZ First well below the cutoff mark. If these are the figures they’re running with, the reality must be grim as hell.

      • Dukeofurl 12.1.1

        Amazingly US polls use the file of people who have voted and to get around 900 voters they have try 90,000 phone numbers.

        Our polls are nothing in comparison

        • ScottGN 12.1.1.1

          Yeah I agree. The US polling that is currently underway for the midterms is breathtaking in its scope. The problem that we’re going to have in NZ though is that, due to cost apparently, polling has become erratic so we’re not going to have trend lines which tell a better story than any single poll.

  13. Stuart Munro 13

    The journey of a 25 point slide begins with a modest downtick.

  14. Puckish Rogue 14

    I’ve been away (working on some new poems) but now, in our hour of need, who can we call upon..?

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR5G0iowNTcKjLXkcPiOnpG41qFooN8CIRUhLhxZlNGhloTvVi5

    I give you my latest effort:

    Where have all the good women gone and where are all the goddesses?
    Where’s the streetwise Athena to fight the rising odds?
    Isn’t there a white Lady upon a fiery steed?
    Late at night I toss and I turn, and I dream of what I need

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night
    She’s gotta be strong, and she’s gotta be fast
    And she’s gotta be fresh from the fight
    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the morning light
    She’s gotta be sure, and it’s gotta be soon
    And she’s gotta be larger than life

    Larger than life

    Somewhere after midnight in my wildest fantasy
    Somewhere just beyond my reach, there’s someone reaching back for me
    Racing on the thunder and rising with the heat
    It’s gonna take a Superwoman to sweep me off my feet

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night
    She’s gotta be strong, and she’s gotta be fast
    And she’s gotta be fresh from the fight
    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the morning light
    She’s gotta be sure, and it’s gotta be soon
    And she’s gotta be larger than life

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night…

    Up where the mountains meet the heavens above
    Out where the lightning splits the sea
    I could swear there is someone somewhere watching me

    Through the wind and the chill and the rain
    And the storm and the flood
    I can feel her approach like a fire in my blood

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night
    She’s gotta be strong, and she’s gotta be fast
    And she’s gotta be fresh from the fight
    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the morning light
    She’s gotta be sure, and it’s gotta be soon
    And she’s gotta be larger than life

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night
    She’s gotta be strong, and she’s gotta be fast
    And she’s gotta be fresh from the fight
    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the morning light
    She’s gotta be sure, and it’s gotta be soon
    And she’s gotta be larger than life

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night

  15. Ankerrawshark 15

    Yes welcome back puckish…….made me smile…….guess you must mean Judith. You need a hero, I am hoping for a sunlight on the murky depth and a thorough cleanse

    • Puckish Rogue 15.1

      I think National needs a womans touch so its Judiths time to shine!

      • WILD KATIPO 15.1.1

        Yes well ,..we already have a woman who shines, in Labour … in Judith’s case,… its more like black light…

      • cleangreen 15.1.2

        Better get ready to hide your old car as “crusher collins” is on the hustings now looking around for old cars to crush with occupants inside like “goldfinger” did to the Lincoln eh!

      • KJT 15.1.3

        Collins is “not an Alien lizard”?

        I don’t believe you!

  16. shadrach 16

    Two factors have minimised the damage the events of the past week has done to National.

    1. The ongoing pessimism around the economic outlook.
    From https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-party-support-drops-below-labour-in-latest-1-news-poll.

    “Economic Outlook
    Optimistic – 33% (down 6%)
    Pessimistic – 41% (up 6%)

    Optimism over New Zealand’s economic outlook has decreased, dropping down to 33 per cent from 39 per cent in the last poll. Pessimism grew by six per cent, up to 41 per cent.”

    2. The impact of allegations around JLR’s behaviour towards women, and his being taken into care. National may yet pay a price for the way this has played out, but thus far that price is minimal (at last as far as this poll is concerned).

    • ianmac 16.1

      Yes. The pessimist’s 41% may be the result of the constant harping of the Bridges team. For most of us we wouldn’t have a clue what the economic outlook could be, so we can just quote the loudest voices.

      • Sacha 16.1.1

        Week after week those people on the telly said business confidence was low and it was the gummint’s fault, so it must be true. And hell in a hand-basket, the radio in the car told me.

        • KJT 16.1.1.1

          Nothing to do with an approaching repeat of the GFC, worldwide, of course.

          Also lacking the buffer, Labour left us for the last one.

  17. Liberal Realist 17

    Well those numbers aren’t all that bad for National if they hold up over the next week or two. Still National has no mates so they’re well shy of anything close to a majority.

    If they do hold above 40% when the poll lag catches up it speaks volumes (to me at least) about the ethics and morality of National voters.

    Given the behaviour seen from various senior Nats (beyond JLR) in the last week and corruption allegations made, it appears the average Nat is quite prepared to bury their head in the sand. Hear no corruption, see no corruption. Nope, there’s no such thing as rich foreign donors being granted parachutes into the National Part¥ of New Zealand (bought from you by the CPC).

    • Ed 17.1

      “If they do hold above 40% when the poll lag catches up it speaks volumes (to me at least) about the ethics and morality of National voters.”

      That’s what 35 years of neoliberalism creates.
      Selfish sociopathic voters.

      • KJT 17.1.1

        You can hardly blame them when they are fed a steady diet of National propaganda, from the likes of Hoskings, Richardson, Garner, the little weasel and all the rest of National’s media outlets.

        • Ed 17.1.1.1

          Don’t they have any critical thinking?

          • KJT 17.1.1.1.1

            More like, lack of good information.

            Unfortunately Journalism has been replaced by sensationalism.

            Well educated and professional reporting has been replaced by opinionated and noisy, useful idiots.

            Most people do not have access to original research and factual information.
            It is too costly, unless you work somewhere that pays for journals.

            Media has become the propaganda arm of the right wing. Using techniques from advertising psychology, they have become very good at directing thought.

    • BM 17.2

      Dickhead, outside of the 1000 odd people who follow politics in NZ , no one gives a fuck about JLR, National or Ardern.

      National voting people/Labour voting people they’re all equally uninterested when it comes to politics, nothing to do with morality.

  18. Ankerrawshark 18

    When is the Reid poll out?

  19. Jum 19

    BM 3
    23 October 2018 at 6:14 pm

    The Tories have plunged to 43%

    Don’t be a tool 🙄 that’s margin of error stuff.

    How true; it just shows how really diseased the national/act supporter reallly is.

    Their true greed and self-interest is displayed for all to see.

    This is New Zealand at its truly awful state of hypocrisy and greed and animal behaviour – sorry animals.

    BM – you really can take a bow for reaching your National party right wing state of perfection in NZ – one of base devilry.

  20. Ankerrawshark 20

    Some things that I think are curious.

    Rum our has it that mark Mitchell called the police to section Ross. Ross had already rejected Mitchell’s offer to “help”…… what the hell was he doing there, assuming there was the electorate office.

    Also radio NZ reporting they have a text that the female mp sent to Jamie in August which they describe as abusive about Ross personality and appearance ending with “you deserve to die”. It’s apparently a long text. This fits more with Jami-Lee description that it was a volatile relationship, rather than she was intimidated by him. I am sorry but imho that is not a text you send to someone you feel intimidated by

    • BM 20.1

      That’s a text you send to someone you hate.

      Ross is a narcissistical arsehole, who I struggle to have any sympathy for.

      • Ankerrawshark 20.1.1

        BM, yes someone you hate, but not someone you find intimidating

        Understand you are hopeful Judith will win for Nats, but all we have is the now and I am really happy with how labour doing in polls esp jacinda…………but none of us have a crystal ball.

        I do predict there is more to come from Jami-Lee. He’s been discharged from hospital…..

        • WILD KATIPO 20.1.1.1

          Well , you’ve got to hand it to JLR, – he certainly has got the town talking, which is a healthy thing regards politics because it counters the far right wing agenda of turning people off politics. It will remain a fouls stench in peoples minds and they will be even more determined to keep National out.

      • KJT 20.1.2

        As are almost all the current crop of National MP’s.

        But you still support them?

  21. millsy 21

    So long as Labour’s number is bigger than National’s in the polls I don’t care.

  22. ScottGN 22

    Amazing that ACT didn’t get any benefit whatsoever from National’s travails. Just shows how dead and buried that party is. National should see the writing on the wall and pull the pin on the silly arrangement in Epsom next election.

  23. CHCOff 23

    It’s not so much a case of people being more-informed rather than that of being less mis-informed.

    These polls are more the mis-informed range of voters rather than the less mis-informed.

    They won’t get this right until the next election as together they are a thing of a moment of time, independent to result – because for sure, the next election is going to be alot more inclusive than even the prior one.

    NZ1st!

  24. Draco T Bastard 24

    The problem for Simon is that the week from hell was pretty much all his own work.

    But, being from the party of Personal Responsibility he’ll never, ever accept that.

    • Oh yes … personal responsibility.

      Both Bridges and Jamie Lee Ross were personally responsible for a scandal that has exposed and rocked National to the core.

      Its good to see they are living by their philosophy.

    • patricia bremner 24.2

      So so true. Spot on Draco T Bastard.

      • KJT 24.2.1

        Get it right. “Personal responsibility” only applies to poor people,

        “We, in National, are above all that”.

  25. ScottGN 25

    The low 40s looks to be a bedrock of support for the centre-right at the moment and because there aren’t any other centre-right parties in the mix National gets to claim all that support. The problem is though, that whichever way you slice and dice it, that’s not enough electoral support under MMP to form a government. In the old days of FPTP Both National and Labour could win a landslide with 40-45% of the vote. The Liberals in Canada did just that in 2015 with 39%.
    The biggest risk for National I reckon is, if over the next 2 years, the idea takes hold in the electorate that they can’t win the next election then a crucial portion of their voters will just stay home on polling day.

    • BM 25.1

      National doesn’t have to do shit.

      Labour will lose 2020 because they’re going to go into that election having achieved fuck all after all their promises as well as pushing a platform of more taxation.

      2020 will be won outright by national and Judith Collins will be PM, bet that thought of that makes your sphincter pucker.

      • ScottGN 25.1.1

        You’re drunk again BM.

        • Muttonbird 25.1.1.1

          When is he sober?

          Remember BM’s first thought on the Jami Lee Ross saga was to drag his wife into it, claiming she was ill.

          Not sure even the National Party stooped so low last week. This week is another though, and they are like a cat backed into a corner…

      • Pete 25.1.2

        As you’ve quite nicely got pucking sphincters and Judith Collins in the same sentence you may be able to shed some light. Were the lovely blue boxes on the Parliamentary desks sponsored by some proctologist? Are souls flaunting them to show their true true colours?

      • WILD KATIPO 25.1.3

        .. [ Labour will lose 2020 because they’re going to go into that election having achieved fuck all … ]

        Well it depends what demographic you are talking about , BM .

        Insofar as working people and the middle classes, I think a few of them are relived National are out. However , if you were meaning the gloating 1% er’s , no , I dont suppose they are too happy with Labour, NZ F irst and the Greens.

        And that makes me happy.

        It also makes me happy has no partners, is slipping in the polls, and are wracked now by division.

      • Sanctuary 25.1.4

        OK, so what would be the likely consequences of a Judith Collin’s led National? She is clearly very popular with the hard right like our possibly serially inebriated BM.

        First of all, Collins is an extreme authoritarian. National party MPs themselves don’t like her because they suspect that there is no absolute guarantee that if she won a democratic election there would ever be another one if she got a chance to declare a state of emergency. Expect her to run an extremist authoritarian line on most issues. She would alienate the liberals in National who would desert National in droves.

        Secondly, she is open to all sorts of corruption allegations. She has unanswered questions over her business practices that would dog her forever. Her links with China need a thorough investigation. The public perception will quickly be one of very shady dealer with a distinct possibility of corruption and the smell of treason.

        Her elevation to the leadership would represent a huge victory for the ultra-right “Auckland Tea Party” facion of National. Their agenda would be to try and ignite right wing identity politics to launch a racist culture war in the belief that somehow it would propel National to victory on the back of white anger, just like the far right US Republicans. It would make her hugely popular with certain sections of the electorate, but would collapse the overall National vote by a good 5-10%. basically, the conditions that allow the politics of white racism thrive in the GOP do not exist in NZ. Our electoral system is far more robust.

        Overall, she would heavily polarise the electorate and cost National a huge number of votes. I suspect the real winner of a Judith Collin’s leadership would be a revamped ACT.

        • BM 25.1.4.1

          I don’t consider Judith Collins hard right at all, she did actually start out in the Labour party.

          The problem here is that your viewpoint has been tainted somewhat by her earlier association with that complete wanker, Cameron Slater.

          From what I understand she’s related to the guy( by marriage) which is rather unfortunate as you can’t really tell him to fuck off, doing that does rather make Christmas get-togethers a wee bit uncomfortable.

          I like Judith because she’s the right person for the current situation, unless you’ve been living under a rock people have become more polarized, you’re either this or that, there doesn’t seem to be any in between.

          Which is why Keys consensus style of politics is dead and Bridges was a poor choice.

          You know where you stand with Collins, which is something that’s being missing from National for a while with it’s please all poll-driven managerial approach.

          • Sanctuary 25.1.4.1.1

            Can you not see the obvious contradiction in your post?

            You claim that Collins is polarising, which is good, because a polarising politician appeals across the political divide.

            • Left_forward 25.1.4.1.1.1

              BM’s alternative reality?

            • BM 25.1.4.1.1.2

              Can you not see the obvious contradiction in your post?

              Not really.

              I believe Collins can pull in voters from both left and right because of her personality, something that Bridges can’t do.

              Politics is about personality these days, Bridges has none, Collins has it in spades, which is why the media want her as Nationals leader.

              • Kevin

                BM, I will let you into a little secret…

                Collins personality IS her problem.

                No warmth, No empathy. No chance.

                • I saw Collins regularly when I was doing security at a particular TV station as she came in to be interviewed ,… and honestly, the sour inverted smile was just incredible. Perhaps it was at a time when Key had stood her down,… but the general vibe was one of grim petulance.

      • Dennis Frank 25.1.5

        Mere posturing. Collins is a partisan. Repositioning herself as a centrist is only fooling some of the people some of the time. To shift the political center requires authenticity. Too many kiwis spot bullshit real fast!

  26. Brian Tregaskin 26

    BM the only possible way Labour could lose next election is with a Capitol Gains Tax and they won’t do that now

  27. mac1 27

    Capitol Gains Tax. Is that one Trump instigated?

    Certainly his gaining of the Capitol has been taxing in a most regressive way.

  28. The decline of the National party by degrees …

    Makes we want to listen to dark Viking music.

    Vikings – Helvegen – YouTube

    • Draco T Bastard 28.1

      I go down to Speaker’s Corner I’m thunderstruck
      They got free speech, tourists, police in trucks
      Two men say they’re Jesus one of them must be wrong
      There’s a protest singer singing a protest song – he says

      ‘they wanna have a war to keep us on our knees
      They wanna have a war to keep their factories
      They wanna have a war to stop us buying Japanese
      They wanna have a war to stop Industrial Disease
      They’re pointing out the enemy to keep you deaf and blind
      They wanna sap your energy incarcerate your mind
      They give you Rule Brittania, gassy beer, page three
      Two weeks in Espana and Sunday striptease’

      Meanwhile the first Jesus says ‘I’d cure it soon
      Abolish monday mornings and friday afternoons’
      The other one’s on a hunger strike he’s dying by degrees
      How come Jesus gets Industrial Disease

      • RedLogix 28.1.1

        Yeah. Dire Straits and MK in particular became very unfashionable with the in-crowd for a long time. But music has outlasted the snobs.

        (Really worth checking out the concert versions of some of their songs; the “Alchemy” concerts captured them at the peak of their musical energy.)

  29. The long slide to a Crusher Collins leadership campaign has begun now that she is on the prefered PM ladder.
    I wonder if Simon is feeling the pain as Judith is putting the pins in the Bridges voodoo doll.
    Her strategy is working like clockwork.

  30. Observer Tokoroa 30

    BM – Quit it !

    Sick of your drunken language – you soaken, pathetic, enemy of Democracy.
    Go back and play in the gutter with your national friends. Quit your filth.

  31. Observer Tokoroa 31

    Judith Collins – Miracle Worker

    A lot of murmur about this attractive lady. Good connections with Cameron Slater and other unsavoury national stalwarts.

    Always in shot when the TV cameras are around. Shoveling up next to Paula Bennett. Except Paula doesn’t weild a Taser gun.

    A sympathetic visitor (using NZ workers’ money ) to Mao’s Beijing and a selected Businessman. So pleasing to the thousands of Chinese Expats in Remuera and Linked Suburbs in Auckland. Who willingly donate National.

    A true National in failing to support New Zealanders finding affordable Housing or affordable Rental Homes. A winsome way with the NZ Police Force.

    What I cannot understand is that she has done absolutely nothing for New Zealand for all the time she has been in Parliament.

    Judith was first elected: 27 July 2002; Member of the following Parliaments: 47th, 48th, 49th, 50th, 51st and 52nd …

    I think Mrs Boag could get more done – than Judith, 18 years and nothing to show for it ! Crikey !

    • patricia bremner 31.1

      Oh, perhaps her energy went into Oravida, relationships with power brokers, and trying to cope with some of the toxic women she worked with, and the hollow men.

    • Brilliant !

      ———————————————

      A true National in failing to support New Zealanders finding affordable Housing or affordable Rental Homes. A winsome way with the NZ Police Force.

      What I cannot understand is that she has done absolutely nothing for New Zealand for all the time she has been in Parliament.

      Judith was first elected: 27 July 2002; Member of the following Parliaments: 47th, 48th, 49th, 50th, 51st and 52nd …

      ———————————————

      The perfect profile of the grabastic neo liberal globalist complete with selling out their nations sovereignty to the lowest bidders !!!

      To the Communists, no less !!!

      Ones with among the WORST human rights records to boot !!!

      And while masquerading as right wing conservatives, deals in dodgy deals for personal enrichment , with their so called arch ideological enemy’s- the communists. The irony and the hypocrisy is mind blowing. And while all this is going on , – yes, – just WHAT has this MP EVER DONE for New Zealanders? !!?

      WHAT ?!!?

      ANSWER : NOTHING.

      ZERO.

      ZILCH.

      Except shore up a sold out political party to foreign interests that passed legislation designed to impoverish , oppress and frustrate ( and create ) an underclass which more often than not , – were imprisoned, relocated out of desirable land, kicked off welfare, and abused roundly by elected officials by demonizing them and releasing private information to the public.

      This is Collins.

      THIS,… is the National party.

  32. Ankerrawshark 32

    Hey peps. I find BM comments problematic/provocative, but not sure about accusing him of being drunk……………

    • cleangreen 32.1

      Let the poor deragging soul go Ankerrawshark,

      I pity the state he/she is now in sadly.

      We need to care more for each other.

      “Courtesy is contagious”

  33. Dennis Frank 33

    The key to the Collins thing is National Party tradition. Nationalism, represented the past quarter century here by Winston First. In the heartland, National voters are more likely to see the threat to sovereignty from Chinese communist infiltration than Nat-libs in the city.

    Best way to destroy National from within is for Collins to win leadership. Even if she tries hard not to wave the Chinese flag, as long as she’s married to one that red flag will enrage National bulls in the heartland. Could easily shift 10-20% of the Nat support base to NZF – as long as Winston doesn’t retire.

    • Puckish Rogue 33.1

      Thats Chinese-Samoan as well as former police officer so I don’t think the rednecks will be too put out

      • Dennis Frank 33.1.1

        Oh, I see. I just assumed a mainland China immigrant. Thanks for educating me. That essay recently highlighting how other chinese ethnicities are suffering from generalised thinking alerted us to the huge divide they feel in respect of the mainlanders. I agree we must start to factor that stuff in.

    • Interesting angle.

      However,… National and Collins will not see power.

      So it remains speculation.

    • bwaghorn 33.3

      Na I know more than a few rural Nats who think collins is the just great .

  34. ankerawshark 34

    Collins least popular choice of caucus last time. Why is that???? How did it work out for Labour when they got Cunliffe who majority in caucus didn’t want……………..
    Collins may win leadership, but like all spills, there will be blood……………………..

    Iam still hoping that Jami Lee is a genuine whistle blower and that it won’t be detrimental to his mental health to continue to expose National, cause I believe there is a lot that needs to come out.

    BTW it is looking like National were involved in attempting to section Jami-Lee and it seems possible that the sectioning didn’t go ahead because of discharge……blimey this needs to be unpicked……………………………………….also was it National who alerted the media??????? That needs to be established, because if they did (remember friends didn’t know till he was in hospital, that is dirty beyond belief.

    • Dennis Frank 34.1

      Cameron Slater wrote on his blog that it was a National MP who did it. The gist I get from all available sources is that it was Mitchell. Remember how he was delegated to be the minder for Ross (by SB)? Makes sense.

  35. Enough is Enough 35

    Why would anyone who votes Labour not want Jacinda as the PM?

    I can’t work out why the party is polling more than her?

    • Dennis Frank 35.1

      Margin of error thing isn’t it? What is technically known as an artifact of statistical variation (my dim memory of having to endure an education in statistics at Ak university 1969).

    • Reason is that in the Colmar Brunton poll (and most other polls) the don’t know/none/undecided responses are taken out in the “party vote” results while for the “preferred Prime Minister” results the don’t know/none/undecided responses are not taken out.

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