TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:06 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 162 comments
Categories: labour, national, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags: , , ,

The October TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll is out.

The last poll, in August, had National on 45%, Labour on 42 and the Greens 6 and NZ First on 5.

This time, it’s a horror show for National:

The Tories have plunged to 43%

Labour are on 45%, up 3. The Greens are up to 7%. That’s 68 seats without Winston’s input.

Preferred PM has Simon Bridges on 7%, one sixth of Jacinda Ardern’s support. Judith Collins features for the first time in ages, at 5%.

National Party leader Simon Bridges claimed it was because of “toughest, worst week in living memory for National and I think for any leader”.

The problem for Simon is that the week from hell was pretty much all his own work.

Still, the opposition leader for the time being is looking to the future.

“We’ve got to get back to talking about what matters for New Zealanders,” Simon says, really convincingly.

162 comments on “TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll ”

  1. Sacha 1

    The lag means the effects of last week’s horrorshow will not show up for a few more. Farrar floating a drop of 10% was always going to mean the result was way better for his bosses.

  2. mickysavage 2

    Interesting. The trend will hurt.

    This is a barely sustainable result for Bridges. If National dips below 40% the BBQs will be fired up.

    • Fireblade 2.1

      Based on this Poll:

      Labour would have 54 seats and could govern with the Green Party’s 8 seats.

      NZF would have 6 seats.

      National would have 53 seats and even with ACT’s presumed 1 seat, it could not govern. Even with NZF, they still couldn’t govern.

      That’s National’s Reality.

    • cleangreen 2.2

      Um—- On the barbecue will be a ” barbequed right wing of a tory” then?

      yummy, – that sounds delicious.

  3. BM 3

    The Tories have plunged to 43%

    Don’t be a tool 🙄 that’s margin of error stuff.

    Be a lot of disappointed left-wing reporters out there, obviously, their week-long hit job meant shit and apart from the political tragics no one gives a fuck about what they write.
    Dickheads.

    Just need to get rid of Simon and it’s majority National in 2020.

    • Yep, all you have to do is replace the leader. That worked for Labour … at the fifth attempt.

      Face it, BM, the next National Prime Minister isn’t in Parliament yet. They may not have even been born.

      • BM 3.1.1

        Bridges was the worst choice out of all the candidates that were in the running for leader after English stepped down.

        He only got the nod because English and Key thought he was great and no doubt helped push him into the leadership role.

        They are wrong, time has moved on, their type of politics isn’t a winner anymore, eventually National will realise this and pick the appropriate leader.

        Hopefully before 2020.

        • WILD KATIPO 3.1.1.1

          Well if Bridges was the worst choice, – that really says truckloads about how unwise they are , or that there is a deficit of actual leadership material in the first place.

          I suspect both to be the case.

        • patricia bremner 3.1.1.2

          Gee BM ‘Key and English were wrong’ You got that bit right. Their cardboard copy is a flop.

        • cleangreen 3.1.1.3

          BM;
          The “road transport industry” (RTF) put Bridges into the National leadership place as they ‘heavily lobby for “road friendly candidates” as “no bridges” was.’

          Steven Joyce arranged this so you are right Bridges was the worst possible chioce.

          If they had used a pro-road/rail/sea candidate national today would be running the country but they sold out to the trucking industry.

          Our group has done internal polling on a candidates with a transport policy of a combined road/rail/sea policy and they are far more likely to win.

          National ‘clean up your road only policy and you will rise in the polls.’

          .

    • Ed 3.2

      It would be interesting to compare poll results on Monday and Friday….

      • ianmac 3.2.1

        They said that by Wednesday the Poll had a severe drop for National but then started up again.

    • Chris 3.3

      The poll wouldn’t have captured the whole of the crucial period. Importantly, that crucial period is likely to have just begun. That leaves a lot of time for Bridges to make a whole lot more decisions he won’t regret.

      • WILD KATIPO 3.3.1

        If bridges was capable of making idiot decisions this time, what makes you think he wont put his foot in his mouth over and over again. Surely you can see stupidity when it hits you in the face as well as everybody else.

        Oh, and BTW- we welcome Judith.

        • Chris 3.3.1.1

          I said Bridges is likely to continue to make decisions he won’t regret. I didn’t say those decisions wouldn’t be idiot decisions. In fact I pretrty much implied that they would be.

    • Gabby 3.4

      Bodges is the best you’ve got. BMmer.

    • KJT 3.5

      You mean the week of National proving how venal and unprincipled they really are.

      Too the extent that even the National apologists in the media couldn’t ignore it.

      Much as they are trying.

      National getting 40% shows either 1. Many people are ignoring what is going on.
      2. 40% will vote for tax cuts, and crooks, no matter how dishonest and incompetent the proposers are.

  4. Ankerrawshark 4

    Don’t think that’s much of a dent for National…….hard to believe

    • BM 4.1

      Yep, after the last week, I would have expected to see National below 40%.

      Just goes to show how little sway the MSM has these days and how switched off the public is.

      Politcs is for about six weeks every 3 years and outside of that people don’t want to know, it’s the only reason why Ardern is currently PM.

      • Rapunzel 4.1.1

        They dropped to 40% the polsters said mid last week and lifted when the focus went specifically back on Ross on Thur and will dip again as other internal issues are aired this is from RNZ today

        “A text believed to have been sent to Jami-Lee Ross in August by a female MP that Mr Ross had a relationship with has been released today.
        Checkpoint has chosen not to release the exact words of the entire text out of concern for the wellbeing of both MPs. It is not clear what prompted the message.
        However it was sent to Mr Ross at 1:19am on a Saturday morning and concluded by saying: “You deserve to die”.

        So not only are their issues with donations, management of behaviors and Ross NZ has an MP sitting who texts such stuff too, the text was sent back in August not in the heat of lasts weeks revelations.

        • Incognito 4.1.1.1

          They dropped to 40% the polsters said mid last week and lifted when the focus went specifically back on Ross on Thur and will dip again as other internal issues are aired this is from RNZ today [sic]

          How does this work? For example, they poll the first 500 people and National drops to 40% (with a larger margin of error). Then, they poll the second 500 people at 46% to come to the average of 1,000 people at 43%!?

          So, National first drops and then rebounds? And we can just ignore the margin of error?

          It sounds to me like the pollsters are trying to manufacture a nice wee story here and they wouldn’t be the first ones to do so …

      • lprent 4.1.2

        The poll was taken from the 14th to the 19th in the midst of the JLR turmoil. Typically the polling effects of any news story most happen a couple of weeks afterwards except at election time.

        Voters and the polled typically aren’t interested in a realtime basis. They tend to think about things slowlyyyyyyy outside of election time.

        • BM 4.1.2.1

          Voters and the polled typically aren’t interested in a realtime basis. They tend to think about things slowlyyyyyyy outside of election time.

          To be honest, they’re not interested at all and it’s getting worse, how switched off the average voter is actually, quite concerning.

          • Aaron 4.1.2.1.1

            And after the last week’s events even more of them will be switched off – which is exactly what Simon Lusk was hoping for.

            BM you may be a right winger but surely we all need to unite together to rid NZ politics of his influence.

          • KJT 4.1.2.1.2

            Good for National, though.

            If voters were paying attention National would be getting about as many votes as ACT.

      • AB 4.1.3

        “Yep, after the last week, I would have expected to see National below 40%.”

        There was not much chance of that. To most people it would just have looked like a bit of messy bickering inside the Nats. I reckon the only element that had the potential to trigger vote shifting on a scale to put National under 40% in such a short time period was “Chinese influence” – and that quickly got buried by sex and mental health.

        Look at the things that have shifted lots of votes quickly – Brash Orewa and Ardern becoming leader. Basically they tap into a strong, but unexpressed undercurrent of feeling in the electorate. This messy fiasco doesn’t really pass that test. At least not yet – still hoping though!

        • Chris 4.1.3.1

          For all of Ross’ faults, if he sincerely wants to expose the rot within the national party then that surely has to be a good thing. And for that reason he needs his (at least) 21 days, which it looks like he’s going to get.

      • WILD KATIPO 4.1.4

        Praise be to the Chinese Communist party , eh , BM ?

        Along with providing willing workers to fill ( or take jobs from young Kiwi born people ) for all the menial jobs they also provide good cash donations to influence our laws and voter base… gotta love those Blue Dragons, don’t we…

      • Bearded Git 4.1.5

        After a year in power Labour and the Greens can rule on their own. Result!

  5. Dennis Frank 5

    A surprisingly good result for National, I reckon. Much smaller drop than I expected, shows that Nat supporters remain tribal, and only a few centrists shifted, but I suspect Sacha could be proved right and further shifting will show up eventually. The polling started last Monday and continued thro to Friday, so those polled earlier will have a lower disgust level in their minds at the time.

    Bridges, on the other hand, seems doomed by getting 7% compared to Ardern over 40% for preferred PM. Maybe not gone by lunchtime, but Collins coming in on 5% gives her odds over Mitchell to replace him.

    • Anne 5.1

      A surprisingly good result for National, I reckon.

      Don’t forget there is always a lag before the bulk of the voters catch up with a story and start to react. It’s only the sad political junkies like us who immediately react.

      Once upon a time it was accepted as being on average a two month lag, but in today’s world of online social media it is probably only one month.

      • alwyn 5.1.1

        What is your evidence for the claims about this “two month lag”?

        I think that, given the dates of the polling and the MSM reporters rabid stories, this is an amazing result for National.
        Most of the polling would have been done when the only information that those being polled would have were the rah-rah stories about Ross’s claims. The truth, that Ross’s recordings did not back up his claims at all, came after the polling had finished.

        Another poll, in a couple of weeks would, I expect, show a big swing back to National. It would possibly be only a sympathy swing back to a defamed Bridges but I think it would happen.

        I don’t think that there will be another poll for a while though. Funny isn’t it that there were no polls in the depths of Labour’s screwups but they whipped one in when they thought National were collapsing.

        Labour, at least, showed a great deal of sense in keeping well clear of the attacks on Bridges. There may be a kick-back at Winston though.

        • Anne 5.1.1.1

          I’ve been around the political traps for 40 plus years and when I say that was the recognised time lag then… that was the recognised time lag. But in the past couple of decades I imagine it has reduced due to social media.

          Now suck it up.

          • alwyn 5.1.1.1.1

            In other words it is your opinion and you are sticking to it.
            I thought there might at least be some evidence for it in academic studies.
            You sounded so definite that I expected a little more than just an “I say it is so, therefore it must be true”.

            • WILD KATIPO 5.1.1.1.1.1

              You got evidence that isn’t the case, alwyn ?

              Or is that just your opinion ?

              • alwyn

                I don’t have any evidence at all on the subject.
                If I had I wouldn’t have needed to ask my question would I?
                I would have either been able to agree with her comment or dispute it if I had known what evidence there was.
                Unfortunately she wasn’t able to provide the evidence. Pity really. I would love to have known whether there was anything concrete to back her opinion up.

              • Enough is Enough

                Jacinda mania and Orewa is the evidence. Both events resulted in immediate and and longstanding changes to the poll results.

            • Anne 5.1.1.1.1.2

              In other words it is your opinion and you are sticking to it.

              Oh, so you’re calling the entire press pack of the 70s, 80s and 90s and the political scientists of the time liars are you? Don’t think they will like that.

              • alwyn

                Of course I’m not calling such a huge number of people liars.Anne.
                However if the entire Press pack over 30 years and the political scientists of the time all agreed on this there is surely something that was published about it?
                I’m certainly not calling them liars. I don’t know what they said and you don’t seem to be able to point to whatever it was that they believed.
                Political scientists publish their findings. If you are claiming they said certain things over many years what evidence do you have to back your story up?

          • Monty 5.1.1.1.2

            Anne. It’s a modern world. It is not 40 years ago when you had to wait a couple weeks for the pony express to drop off your newspaper. Social media, the internet means people get news even faster than even 10 years ago.

            There is zero lag in the time it takes for an event to happen to people reading about it. Even now Ross is released drops another text out and we all here about it immediately.

            Plus this has dominated all media. People have been saturated with it.

            • WILD KATIPO 5.1.1.1.2.1

              But you are not taking into consideration the smoko room talk and gossip, either. Its when it gets past the social media and into the workaday conversations face to face that opinions are hardened.

              Social media is a fantasy land that does not stand up to the fires of real debate.

              Anne is correct in the time-lag.

              • James Thrace

                Anne is correct

                I have been having conversations this long weekend about the cash for candidates policy that National have in place.
                More than a few people didn’t even realise this was actually a thing that happened because the focus had been on “ILLEGAL RECORDINGS” and “SEX AFFAIRS” rather than $100,000 donations to buy a list seat for Chinese candidates.

                The palpable shock that National were not running a merit based selection process for candidates on the party list was a sight to behold on the faces of some.

                It’s that type of conversation that will harden attitudes. It’ll be a slow burn especially when people start putting two and two together with the latest revelation that the $100K donation has resulted in a potential candidate going to Nationals “Candidate College”

                Candidate College will be the next most interesting thing. What even is it? What do they do?

                • KJT

                  National party candidate College.

                  List of courses.

                  101 Telling lies with a straight face.
                  102 Massaging statistics.
                  103 Backstabbing.
                  104 Hiding bribery.
                  105 Putting up with your fellow members, and staying sane.
                  106 Managing moral conflicts.
                  107 Throwing your fellow Kiwi’s under a bus. Without feeling guilty.

                  Optional papers.
                  201 Getting bribes, sorry, funding, from Chinese and US fat cats.
                  202 Bene bashing 01.
                  203 Bene bashing 02.
                  204 How to avoid “personal responsibility”.
                  205 Arrogance, entitlement and greed. (1001 ways to make you feel better about it).

              • alwyn

                “Anne is correct in the time-lag.”
                Well Anne never produced any evidence for the claim.
                Have you got some or are you just a blowhard saying something you would like to be correct?
                Right then, what is your evidence for the claim.

            • cleangreen 5.1.1.1.2.2

              We will see then eh?

        • KJT 5.1.1.2

          What degree of dishonesty, greed and manifest self interest, do National MP’s need to exhibit, before they lose their voters?

          Before Alwyn wakes up?

    • SPC 5.2

      Most of their support is based on economic self-interest. However much of a shambles the party representing this becomes they will still vote the same.

  6. Brian Tregaskin 6

    National will always have a core support of 43% to 46% no matter what because most people won’t change their party vote., for any reason, whatever happens.

    • Pete 6.1

      You’re right. Key could’ve thrown a baby on the barbecue and not only would they have voted for him, the’ve would’ve put the boot into any neighbours who complained about the smell in the air from it.

      • WILD KATIPO 6.1.1

        Except that Key and co also wooed the immigrant vote and provided National with a steady stream of new arrivals ready and willing to vote for the party that enabled them to pour into the country…

    • Dukeofurl 6.2

      “core support of 43% to 46% no matter what because most people won’t change their party vote.,”

      Except when they didnt and got 20.9%…hahahaha

      You have to have other parties to choose and the ones around in 2002 arent there any more.

      • Aaron 6.2.1

        They dropped to 20.9% because there were several other parties around to absorb the right wing vote – United Future, Act, NZ First were all swiping bits of the their vote.

        Right now when A pollster asks ” who would you vote for if there was an election today” the only answer a right winger can give is National. Everyone is mistaking this for big National Party support but they’ve got pretty much the entire right wing vote sewn up and that vote is no where enough.

        Imagine if the Green Party was erased from history in 2012 and pollsters asked left wingers who they would vote for if an election were held today (in 2012) – that 15% would probably have been forced to pick Labour and Labour would have being flying above the 40% mark and looking pretty good too.

        • Dukeofurl 6.2.1.1

          We saw how that could pan out in Sydney a few days ago. Voters can choose an independent when the main party pick is horrible

    • SPC 6.3

      National got beat 41 to 39 in 2005. And given NZF said pre-election they would go with the larger party … that is losing.

      The core vote was c45% under Key and English, Bridges is not …

      Key had immediate popular support, by 2016 English had more experience than Simon Bridges will ever have in parliament or government.

    • Chris 6.4

      That’s not true. Look at what happened in 2002. The real issue is what parties can recover from. And in that regard what you’re saying has more of an attraction. English polled a record low in 2002, or close to it, then Brash led the party to near victory in 2005. The current fiasco is pretty serious. The nats survived Hager’s expose in 2014. But that was a book. This time it’s unfolding before our eyes. Will be pretty damn interesting to see what happens, especially given the nats’ lack of depth. It certainly ain’t over yet.

  7. Adrian Thornton 7

    I hope that the stark reality of this poll will get through the seemly very thick skulls of the Labour strategists and associated hierarchy that there are no ‘soft’ National votes down the centre.

    Turn labour Left!

  8. Fireblade 8

    Act didn’t register. I guess DWTS didn’t help then.

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/seymour-twerk-v2.gif

    • Pete 8.1

      Act doesn’t have to register anywhere except Epsom. And they will, with Seymour flying in.

      • Dukeofurl 8.1.1

        When your poodle is flea ridden and arthritic you might want to replace it with an enegetic appealing new puppy that will grow up strong…. Bye bye ACT poodle

        • Dennis Frank 8.1.1.1

          Yeah, an interesting space to watch. I think Seymour has been performing surprisingly well & he must find it galling that his performance is getting absolutely no traction for his brand. Ditch that arthritic brand! The smart move for him now is to join National. Do it after private talks with key players in National to establish common cause. If he does it on the basis of a principled rightist platform, he’ll be likely to succeed.

          Under this scenario, he’d abandon Epsom as a trade for whatever they offered him in the mutual-benefit plan. Gives the Nats a chance to put one of their youngsters into Epsom. Probably Goldsmith.

  9. Kat 9

    National has a new breed and mix of supporters and they view the recent debacle within National as perfectly normal and polling will most likely stay around the 36-41% mark up to the 2020 election. That means Labour and coalition partners will win in 2020 and that is when a bigger drop in Nationals poll ratings will occur. When the Labour coalition wins the 2023 election where Nationals vote “plunges” to is anybody’s guess.

  10. WeTheBleeple 10

    I’d give Winston the thumbs up. He let NZ breathe, and we were gasping.

    Under the watch of a smug corporate globalist. The right had to maintain a state of delusion to let so much shit fly for so long. We had to stand by for close to a decade watching a train wreck in slow motion with no ability to stop it.

    The media gave each other awards. The politicians gongs.

    People lost their spirit on both sides.

    Breathe.

    • Awesome.

      That was the truth. Thank goodness for Winston and NZ First .

      I was formerly going to vote Labour when they were struggling, but then along came Adern. So I voted Greens because they were in trouble at that time. But this time round I’m determined to vote NZ First because they are the party I have always most found represent NZ pre the 1984 neo liberal/Douglas treason.

      BTW , – Great choice of music, originally by Uncle Bob . Big fan of Bob and the Wailers. 🙂

      • xanthe 10.1.1

        i also agree Winston is a life saver for NZ politics and Labour anyone who thinks they would be better with Marama has got rocks in their heads . quite sure they will stick with Winston with very good reason.

      • cleangreen 10.1.2

        Me too Wild Katipo.

        We are so disappointed with Labour and greens.

        • KJT 10.1.2.1

          It is Winston that is preventing Labour Greens from enacting a lot of their social and workers rights policies.
          Good if we could have Labour Greens without that handbrake.

  11. Dv 11

    Yes but bridges has got another enquiry going.
    Just remember how the last one worked out!!!!

  12. Michael 12

    A two percent drop is a “plunge”? I think not. Although it’s unwise to draw conclusions from a single poll, doing so indicates to me that National’s support remains solid, while any increase in the Greens’ support is coming from Labour. If Tory voters really are sickened by last week’s events I’d expect more of them to switch to Winston. So far, they haven’t.

    • A further two points from an already unwinnable position is a plunge in my books, Michael. The Tories are 7-8 points shy of where they need to be and their leader is about as popular as toe fungus and their only hope appears to be an MP who can’t muster a quarter of the votes in caucus.

      Remember, this is the Colmar Brunton, which constantly over-rates the Nats and almost without fail finds NZ First well below the cutoff mark. If these are the figures they’re running with, the reality must be grim as hell.

      • Dukeofurl 12.1.1

        Amazingly US polls use the file of people who have voted and to get around 900 voters they have try 90,000 phone numbers.

        Our polls are nothing in comparison

        • ScottGN 12.1.1.1

          Yeah I agree. The US polling that is currently underway for the midterms is breathtaking in its scope. The problem that we’re going to have in NZ though is that, due to cost apparently, polling has become erratic so we’re not going to have trend lines which tell a better story than any single poll.

  13. Stuart Munro 13

    The journey of a 25 point slide begins with a modest downtick.

  14. Puckish Rogue 14

    I’ve been away (working on some new poems) but now, in our hour of need, who can we call upon..?

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR5G0iowNTcKjLXkcPiOnpG41qFooN8CIRUhLhxZlNGhloTvVi5

    I give you my latest effort:

    Where have all the good women gone and where are all the goddesses?
    Where’s the streetwise Athena to fight the rising odds?
    Isn’t there a white Lady upon a fiery steed?
    Late at night I toss and I turn, and I dream of what I need

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night
    She’s gotta be strong, and she’s gotta be fast
    And she’s gotta be fresh from the fight
    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the morning light
    She’s gotta be sure, and it’s gotta be soon
    And she’s gotta be larger than life

    Larger than life

    Somewhere after midnight in my wildest fantasy
    Somewhere just beyond my reach, there’s someone reaching back for me
    Racing on the thunder and rising with the heat
    It’s gonna take a Superwoman to sweep me off my feet

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night
    She’s gotta be strong, and she’s gotta be fast
    And she’s gotta be fresh from the fight
    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the morning light
    She’s gotta be sure, and it’s gotta be soon
    And she’s gotta be larger than life

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night…

    Up where the mountains meet the heavens above
    Out where the lightning splits the sea
    I could swear there is someone somewhere watching me

    Through the wind and the chill and the rain
    And the storm and the flood
    I can feel her approach like a fire in my blood

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night
    She’s gotta be strong, and she’s gotta be fast
    And she’s gotta be fresh from the fight
    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the morning light
    She’s gotta be sure, and it’s gotta be soon
    And she’s gotta be larger than life

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night
    She’s gotta be strong, and she’s gotta be fast
    And she’s gotta be fresh from the fight
    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the morning light
    She’s gotta be sure, and it’s gotta be soon
    And she’s gotta be larger than life

    I need a hero
    I’m holding out for a hero till the end of the night

  15. Ankerrawshark 15

    Yes welcome back puckish…….made me smile…….guess you must mean Judith. You need a hero, I am hoping for a sunlight on the murky depth and a thorough cleanse

    • Puckish Rogue 15.1

      I think National needs a womans touch so its Judiths time to shine!

      • WILD KATIPO 15.1.1

        Yes well ,..we already have a woman who shines, in Labour … in Judith’s case,… its more like black light…

      • cleangreen 15.1.2

        Better get ready to hide your old car as “crusher collins” is on the hustings now looking around for old cars to crush with occupants inside like “goldfinger” did to the Lincoln eh!

      • KJT 15.1.3

        Collins is “not an Alien lizard”?

        I don’t believe you!

  16. shadrach 16

    Two factors have minimised the damage the events of the past week has done to National.

    1. The ongoing pessimism around the economic outlook.
    From https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/national-party-support-drops-below-labour-in-latest-1-news-poll.

    “Economic Outlook
    Optimistic – 33% (down 6%)
    Pessimistic – 41% (up 6%)

    Optimism over New Zealand’s economic outlook has decreased, dropping down to 33 per cent from 39 per cent in the last poll. Pessimism grew by six per cent, up to 41 per cent.”

    2. The impact of allegations around JLR’s behaviour towards women, and his being taken into care. National may yet pay a price for the way this has played out, but thus far that price is minimal (at last as far as this poll is concerned).

    • ianmac 16.1

      Yes. The pessimist’s 41% may be the result of the constant harping of the Bridges team. For most of us we wouldn’t have a clue what the economic outlook could be, so we can just quote the loudest voices.

      • Sacha 16.1.1

        Week after week those people on the telly said business confidence was low and it was the gummint’s fault, so it must be true. And hell in a hand-basket, the radio in the car told me.

        • KJT 16.1.1.1

          Nothing to do with an approaching repeat of the GFC, worldwide, of course.

          Also lacking the buffer, Labour left us for the last one.

  17. Liberal Realist 17

    Well those numbers aren’t all that bad for National if they hold up over the next week or two. Still National has no mates so they’re well shy of anything close to a majority.

    If they do hold above 40% when the poll lag catches up it speaks volumes (to me at least) about the ethics and morality of National voters.

    Given the behaviour seen from various senior Nats (beyond JLR) in the last week and corruption allegations made, it appears the average Nat is quite prepared to bury their head in the sand. Hear no corruption, see no corruption. Nope, there’s no such thing as rich foreign donors being granted parachutes into the National Part¥ of New Zealand (bought from you by the CPC).

    • Ed 17.1

      “If they do hold above 40% when the poll lag catches up it speaks volumes (to me at least) about the ethics and morality of National voters.”

      That’s what 35 years of neoliberalism creates.
      Selfish sociopathic voters.

      • KJT 17.1.1

        You can hardly blame them when they are fed a steady diet of National propaganda, from the likes of Hoskings, Richardson, Garner, the little weasel and all the rest of National’s media outlets.

        • Ed 17.1.1.1

          Don’t they have any critical thinking?

          • KJT 17.1.1.1.1

            More like, lack of good information.

            Unfortunately Journalism has been replaced by sensationalism.

            Well educated and professional reporting has been replaced by opinionated and noisy, useful idiots.

            Most people do not have access to original research and factual information.
            It is too costly, unless you work somewhere that pays for journals.

            Media has become the propaganda arm of the right wing. Using techniques from advertising psychology, they have become very good at directing thought.

    • BM 17.2

      Dickhead, outside of the 1000 odd people who follow politics in NZ , no one gives a fuck about JLR, National or Ardern.

      National voting people/Labour voting people they’re all equally uninterested when it comes to politics, nothing to do with morality.

  18. Ankerrawshark 18

    When is the Reid poll out?

  19. Jum 19

    BM 3
    23 October 2018 at 6:14 pm

    The Tories have plunged to 43%

    Don’t be a tool 🙄 that’s margin of error stuff.

    How true; it just shows how really diseased the national/act supporter reallly is.

    Their true greed and self-interest is displayed for all to see.

    This is New Zealand at its truly awful state of hypocrisy and greed and animal behaviour – sorry animals.

    BM – you really can take a bow for reaching your National party right wing state of perfection in NZ – one of base devilry.

  20. Ankerrawshark 20

    Some things that I think are curious.

    Rum our has it that mark Mitchell called the police to section Ross. Ross had already rejected Mitchell’s offer to “help”…… what the hell was he doing there, assuming there was the electorate office.

    Also radio NZ reporting they have a text that the female mp sent to Jamie in August which they describe as abusive about Ross personality and appearance ending with “you deserve to die”. It’s apparently a long text. This fits more with Jami-Lee description that it was a volatile relationship, rather than she was intimidated by him. I am sorry but imho that is not a text you send to someone you feel intimidated by

    • BM 20.1

      That’s a text you send to someone you hate.

      Ross is a narcissistical arsehole, who I struggle to have any sympathy for.

      • Ankerrawshark 20.1.1

        BM, yes someone you hate, but not someone you find intimidating

        Understand you are hopeful Judith will win for Nats, but all we have is the now and I am really happy with how labour doing in polls esp jacinda…………but none of us have a crystal ball.

        I do predict there is more to come from Jami-Lee. He’s been discharged from hospital…..

        • WILD KATIPO 20.1.1.1

          Well , you’ve got to hand it to JLR, – he certainly has got the town talking, which is a healthy thing regards politics because it counters the far right wing agenda of turning people off politics. It will remain a fouls stench in peoples minds and they will be even more determined to keep National out.

      • KJT 20.1.2

        As are almost all the current crop of National MP’s.

        But you still support them?

  21. millsy 21

    So long as Labour’s number is bigger than National’s in the polls I don’t care.

  22. ScottGN 22

    Amazing that ACT didn’t get any benefit whatsoever from National’s travails. Just shows how dead and buried that party is. National should see the writing on the wall and pull the pin on the silly arrangement in Epsom next election.

  23. CHCOff 23

    It’s not so much a case of people being more-informed rather than that of being less mis-informed.

    These polls are more the mis-informed range of voters rather than the less mis-informed.

    They won’t get this right until the next election as together they are a thing of a moment of time, independent to result – because for sure, the next election is going to be alot more inclusive than even the prior one.

    NZ1st!

  24. Draco T Bastard 24

    The problem for Simon is that the week from hell was pretty much all his own work.

    But, being from the party of Personal Responsibility he’ll never, ever accept that.

    • Oh yes … personal responsibility.

      Both Bridges and Jamie Lee Ross were personally responsible for a scandal that has exposed and rocked National to the core.

      Its good to see they are living by their philosophy.

    • patricia bremner 24.2

      So so true. Spot on Draco T Bastard.

      • KJT 24.2.1

        Get it right. “Personal responsibility” only applies to poor people,

        “We, in National, are above all that”.

  25. ScottGN 25

    The low 40s looks to be a bedrock of support for the centre-right at the moment and because there aren’t any other centre-right parties in the mix National gets to claim all that support. The problem is though, that whichever way you slice and dice it, that’s not enough electoral support under MMP to form a government. In the old days of FPTP Both National and Labour could win a landslide with 40-45% of the vote. The Liberals in Canada did just that in 2015 with 39%.
    The biggest risk for National I reckon is, if over the next 2 years, the idea takes hold in the electorate that they can’t win the next election then a crucial portion of their voters will just stay home on polling day.

    • BM 25.1

      National doesn’t have to do shit.

      Labour will lose 2020 because they’re going to go into that election having achieved fuck all after all their promises as well as pushing a platform of more taxation.

      2020 will be won outright by national and Judith Collins will be PM, bet that thought of that makes your sphincter pucker.

      • ScottGN 25.1.1

        You’re drunk again BM.

        • Muttonbird 25.1.1.1

          When is he sober?

          Remember BM’s first thought on the Jami Lee Ross saga was to drag his wife into it, claiming she was ill.

          Not sure even the National Party stooped so low last week. This week is another though, and they are like a cat backed into a corner…

      • Pete 25.1.2

        As you’ve quite nicely got pucking sphincters and Judith Collins in the same sentence you may be able to shed some light. Were the lovely blue boxes on the Parliamentary desks sponsored by some proctologist? Are souls flaunting them to show their true true colours?

      • WILD KATIPO 25.1.3

        .. [ Labour will lose 2020 because they’re going to go into that election having achieved fuck all … ]

        Well it depends what demographic you are talking about , BM .

        Insofar as working people and the middle classes, I think a few of them are relived National are out. However , if you were meaning the gloating 1% er’s , no , I dont suppose they are too happy with Labour, NZ F irst and the Greens.

        And that makes me happy.

        It also makes me happy has no partners, is slipping in the polls, and are wracked now by division.

      • Sanctuary 25.1.4

        OK, so what would be the likely consequences of a Judith Collin’s led National? She is clearly very popular with the hard right like our possibly serially inebriated BM.

        First of all, Collins is an extreme authoritarian. National party MPs themselves don’t like her because they suspect that there is no absolute guarantee that if she won a democratic election there would ever be another one if she got a chance to declare a state of emergency. Expect her to run an extremist authoritarian line on most issues. She would alienate the liberals in National who would desert National in droves.

        Secondly, she is open to all sorts of corruption allegations. She has unanswered questions over her business practices that would dog her forever. Her links with China need a thorough investigation. The public perception will quickly be one of very shady dealer with a distinct possibility of corruption and the smell of treason.

        Her elevation to the leadership would represent a huge victory for the ultra-right “Auckland Tea Party” facion of National. Their agenda would be to try and ignite right wing identity politics to launch a racist culture war in the belief that somehow it would propel National to victory on the back of white anger, just like the far right US Republicans. It would make her hugely popular with certain sections of the electorate, but would collapse the overall National vote by a good 5-10%. basically, the conditions that allow the politics of white racism thrive in the GOP do not exist in NZ. Our electoral system is far more robust.

        Overall, she would heavily polarise the electorate and cost National a huge number of votes. I suspect the real winner of a Judith Collin’s leadership would be a revamped ACT.

        • BM 25.1.4.1

          I don’t consider Judith Collins hard right at all, she did actually start out in the Labour party.

          The problem here is that your viewpoint has been tainted somewhat by her earlier association with that complete wanker, Cameron Slater.

          From what I understand she’s related to the guy( by marriage) which is rather unfortunate as you can’t really tell him to fuck off, doing that does rather make Christmas get-togethers a wee bit uncomfortable.

          I like Judith because she’s the right person for the current situation, unless you’ve been living under a rock people have become more polarized, you’re either this or that, there doesn’t seem to be any in between.

          Which is why Keys consensus style of politics is dead and Bridges was a poor choice.

          You know where you stand with Collins, which is something that’s being missing from National for a while with it’s please all poll-driven managerial approach.

          • Sanctuary 25.1.4.1.1

            Can you not see the obvious contradiction in your post?

            You claim that Collins is polarising, which is good, because a polarising politician appeals across the political divide.

            • Left_forward 25.1.4.1.1.1

              BM’s alternative reality?

            • BM 25.1.4.1.1.2

              Can you not see the obvious contradiction in your post?

              Not really.

              I believe Collins can pull in voters from both left and right because of her personality, something that Bridges can’t do.

              Politics is about personality these days, Bridges has none, Collins has it in spades, which is why the media want her as Nationals leader.

              • Kevin

                BM, I will let you into a little secret…

                Collins personality IS her problem.

                No warmth, No empathy. No chance.

                • I saw Collins regularly when I was doing security at a particular TV station as she came in to be interviewed ,… and honestly, the sour inverted smile was just incredible. Perhaps it was at a time when Key had stood her down,… but the general vibe was one of grim petulance.

      • Dennis Frank 25.1.5

        Mere posturing. Collins is a partisan. Repositioning herself as a centrist is only fooling some of the people some of the time. To shift the political center requires authenticity. Too many kiwis spot bullshit real fast!

  26. Brian Tregaskin 26

    BM the only possible way Labour could lose next election is with a Capitol Gains Tax and they won’t do that now

  27. mac1 27

    Capitol Gains Tax. Is that one Trump instigated?

    Certainly his gaining of the Capitol has been taxing in a most regressive way.

  28. The decline of the National party by degrees …

    Makes we want to listen to dark Viking music.

    Vikings – Helvegen – YouTube

    • Draco T Bastard 28.1

      I go down to Speaker’s Corner I’m thunderstruck
      They got free speech, tourists, police in trucks
      Two men say they’re Jesus one of them must be wrong
      There’s a protest singer singing a protest song – he says

      ‘they wanna have a war to keep us on our knees
      They wanna have a war to keep their factories
      They wanna have a war to stop us buying Japanese
      They wanna have a war to stop Industrial Disease
      They’re pointing out the enemy to keep you deaf and blind
      They wanna sap your energy incarcerate your mind
      They give you Rule Brittania, gassy beer, page three
      Two weeks in Espana and Sunday striptease’

      Meanwhile the first Jesus says ‘I’d cure it soon
      Abolish monday mornings and friday afternoons’
      The other one’s on a hunger strike he’s dying by degrees
      How come Jesus gets Industrial Disease

      • RedLogix 28.1.1

        Yeah. Dire Straits and MK in particular became very unfashionable with the in-crowd for a long time. But music has outlasted the snobs.

        (Really worth checking out the concert versions of some of their songs; the “Alchemy” concerts captured them at the peak of their musical energy.)

  29. Mat Simpson 29

    The long slide to a Crusher Collins leadership campaign has begun now that she is on the prefered PM ladder.
    I wonder if Simon is feeling the pain as Judith is putting the pins in the Bridges voodoo doll.
    Her strategy is working like clockwork.

  30. Observer Tokoroa 30

    BM – Quit it !

    Sick of your drunken language – you soaken, pathetic, enemy of Democracy.
    Go back and play in the gutter with your national friends. Quit your filth.

  31. Observer Tokoroa 31

    Judith Collins – Miracle Worker

    A lot of murmur about this attractive lady. Good connections with Cameron Slater and other unsavoury national stalwarts.

    Always in shot when the TV cameras are around. Shoveling up next to Paula Bennett. Except Paula doesn’t weild a Taser gun.

    A sympathetic visitor (using NZ workers’ money ) to Mao’s Beijing and a selected Businessman. So pleasing to the thousands of Chinese Expats in Remuera and Linked Suburbs in Auckland. Who willingly donate National.

    A true National in failing to support New Zealanders finding affordable Housing or affordable Rental Homes. A winsome way with the NZ Police Force.

    What I cannot understand is that she has done absolutely nothing for New Zealand for all the time she has been in Parliament.

    Judith was first elected: 27 July 2002; Member of the following Parliaments: 47th, 48th, 49th, 50th, 51st and 52nd …

    I think Mrs Boag could get more done – than Judith, 18 years and nothing to show for it ! Crikey !

    • patricia bremner 31.1

      Oh, perhaps her energy went into Oravida, relationships with power brokers, and trying to cope with some of the toxic women she worked with, and the hollow men.

    • Brilliant !

      ———————————————

      A true National in failing to support New Zealanders finding affordable Housing or affordable Rental Homes. A winsome way with the NZ Police Force.

      What I cannot understand is that she has done absolutely nothing for New Zealand for all the time she has been in Parliament.

      Judith was first elected: 27 July 2002; Member of the following Parliaments: 47th, 48th, 49th, 50th, 51st and 52nd …

      ———————————————

      The perfect profile of the grabastic neo liberal globalist complete with selling out their nations sovereignty to the lowest bidders !!!

      To the Communists, no less !!!

      Ones with among the WORST human rights records to boot !!!

      And while masquerading as right wing conservatives, deals in dodgy deals for personal enrichment , with their so called arch ideological enemy’s- the communists. The irony and the hypocrisy is mind blowing. And while all this is going on , – yes, – just WHAT has this MP EVER DONE for New Zealanders? !!?

      WHAT ?!!?

      ANSWER : NOTHING.

      ZERO.

      ZILCH.

      Except shore up a sold out political party to foreign interests that passed legislation designed to impoverish , oppress and frustrate ( and create ) an underclass which more often than not , – were imprisoned, relocated out of desirable land, kicked off welfare, and abused roundly by elected officials by demonizing them and releasing private information to the public.

      This is Collins.

      THIS,… is the National party.

  32. Ankerrawshark 32

    Hey peps. I find BM comments problematic/provocative, but not sure about accusing him of being drunk……………

    • cleangreen 32.1

      Let the poor deragging soul go Ankerrawshark,

      I pity the state he/she is now in sadly.

      We need to care more for each other.

      “Courtesy is contagious”

  33. Dennis Frank 33

    The key to the Collins thing is National Party tradition. Nationalism, represented the past quarter century here by Winston First. In the heartland, National voters are more likely to see the threat to sovereignty from Chinese communist infiltration than Nat-libs in the city.

    Best way to destroy National from within is for Collins to win leadership. Even if she tries hard not to wave the Chinese flag, as long as she’s married to one that red flag will enrage National bulls in the heartland. Could easily shift 10-20% of the Nat support base to NZF – as long as Winston doesn’t retire.

    • Puckish Rogue 33.1

      Thats Chinese-Samoan as well as former police officer so I don’t think the rednecks will be too put out

      • Dennis Frank 33.1.1

        Oh, I see. I just assumed a mainland China immigrant. Thanks for educating me. That essay recently highlighting how other chinese ethnicities are suffering from generalised thinking alerted us to the huge divide they feel in respect of the mainlanders. I agree we must start to factor that stuff in.

    • Interesting angle.

      However,… National and Collins will not see power.

      So it remains speculation.

    • bwaghorn 33.3

      Na I know more than a few rural Nats who think collins is the just great .

  34. ankerawshark 34

    Collins least popular choice of caucus last time. Why is that???? How did it work out for Labour when they got Cunliffe who majority in caucus didn’t want……………..
    Collins may win leadership, but like all spills, there will be blood……………………..

    Iam still hoping that Jami Lee is a genuine whistle blower and that it won’t be detrimental to his mental health to continue to expose National, cause I believe there is a lot that needs to come out.

    BTW it is looking like National were involved in attempting to section Jami-Lee and it seems possible that the sectioning didn’t go ahead because of discharge……blimey this needs to be unpicked……………………………………….also was it National who alerted the media??????? That needs to be established, because if they did (remember friends didn’t know till he was in hospital, that is dirty beyond belief.

    • Dennis Frank 34.1

      Cameron Slater wrote on his blog that it was a National MP who did it. The gist I get from all available sources is that it was Mitchell. Remember how he was delegated to be the minder for Ross (by SB)? Makes sense.

  35. Enough is Enough 35

    Why would anyone who votes Labour not want Jacinda as the PM?

    I can’t work out why the party is polling more than her?

    • Dennis Frank 35.1

      Margin of error thing isn’t it? What is technically known as an artifact of statistical variation (my dim memory of having to endure an education in statistics at Ak university 1969).

    • TeAroPundit 35.2

      Reason is that in the Colmar Brunton poll (and most other polls) the don’t know/none/undecided responses are taken out in the “party vote” results while for the “preferred Prime Minister” results the don’t know/none/undecided responses are not taken out.

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    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Thoughts about contemporary troubles.
    This will be s short post. It stems from observations I made elsewhere about what might be characterised as some macro and micro aspects of contemporary collective violence events. Here goes. The conflicts between Israel and Palestine and France and … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On Blurring The Lines Around Political Corruption
    It may be a relic of a previous era of egalitarianism, but many of us like to think that, in general, most New Zealanders are as honest as the day is long. We’re good like that, and smart as. If we’re not punching above our weight on the world stage, ...
    4 days ago
  • MPs own 2.2 houses on average
    Bryce Edwards writes – Why aren’t politicians taking more action on the housing affordability crisis? The answer might lie in the latest “Register of Pecuniary Interests.” This register contains details of the various financial interests of parliamentarians. It shows that politicians own real estate in significant numbers. The ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • King Mike & Mike King.
    I built a time machine to see you againTo hear your phone callYour voice down the hallThe way we were back thenWe were dancing in the rainOur feet on the pavementYou said I was your second headI knew exactly what you meantIn the country of the blind, or so they ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: MPs own 2.2 houses on average
    Why aren’t politicians taking more action on the housing affordability crisis? The answer might lie in the latest “Register of Pecuniary Interests.” This register contains details of the various financial interests of parliamentarians. It shows that politicians own real estate in significant numbers. The register published on Tuesday contains a ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • How much climate reality can the global financial system take without collapsing?
    Microsoft’s transparency about its failure to meet its own net-zero goals is creditable, but the response to that failure is worrying. It is offering up a set of false solutions, heavily buttressed by baseless optimism. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 24-May-2024
    Another Friday, another Rāmere Roundup! Here are a few things that caught our eye this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday, our new writer Connor Sharp roared into print with a future-focused take on the proposed Auckland Future Fund, and what it could invest in. On ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • Earning The Huia Feather.
    Still Waiting: Māori land remains in the hands of Non-Māori. The broken promises of the Treaty remain broken. The mana of the tangata whenua languishes under racist neglect. The right to wear the huia feather remains as elusive as ever. Perhaps these three transformations are beyond the power of a ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus and pick ‘n’ mix for Friday, May 24
    Posters opposing the proposed Fast-Track Approvals legislation were pasted around Wellington last week. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: One of the architects of the RMA and a former National Cabinet Minister, Simon Upton, has criticised the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals bill as potentially disastrous for the environment, arguing just 1% ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to May 24
    There was less sharing of the joy this week than at the Chinese New Year celebrations in February. China’s ambassador to NZ (2nd from right above) has told Luxon that relations between China and New Zealand are now at a ‘critical juncture’ Photo: Getty / Xinhua News AgencyTL;DR: The podcast ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Beijing troubleshooter’s surprise visit
    The importance of New Zealand’s relationship with China was surely demonstrated yesterday with the surprise arrival in the capital of top Chinese foreign policy official Liu Jianchao. The trip was apparently organized a week ago but kept secret. Liu is the Minister of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) International Liaison ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • UK election a foregone conclusion?  That’s why it’s interesting
    With a crushing 20-plus point lead in the opinion polls, all the signs are that Labour leader Keir Starmer will be the PM after the general election on 4 July, called by Conservative incumbent Rishi Sunak yesterday. The stars are aligned for Starmer.  Rival progressives are in abeyance: the Liberal-Democrat ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    4 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2021
    Open access notables How much storage do we need in a fully electrified future? A critical review of the assumptions on which this question depends, Marsden et al., Energy Research & Social Science: Our analysis advances the argument that current approaches reproduce interpretations of normality that are, ironically, rooted in ...
    4 days ago
  • Days in the life
    We returned last week from England to London. Two different worlds. A quarter of an hour before dropping off our car, we came to a complete stop on the M25. Just moments before, there had been six lanes of hurtling cars and lorries. Now, everything was at a standstill as ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Forget about its name and focus on its objective – this RMA reform bill aims to cut red tape (and ...
    Buzz from the Beehive A triumvirate of ministers – holding the Agriculture, Environment and RMA Reform portfolios – has announced the introduction of legislation “to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling development in key sectors”, such as farming, mining and other primary industries. The exact name of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • More National corruption
    In their coalition agreement with NZ First, the National Party agreed to provide $24 million in funding to the charity "I Am Hope / Gumboot Friday". Why were they so eager to do so? Because their chair was a National donor, their CEO was the son of a National MP ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Submit!
    The Social Services and Community Committee has called for submissions on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. Submissions are due by Wednesday, 3 July 2024, and can be made at the link above. And if you're wondering what to say: section 7AA was enacted because Oranga Tamariki ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Reading the MPS numbers thinking about the fiscal situation
    Michael Reddell writes –  The Reserve Bank doesn’t do independent fiscal forecasts so there is no news in the fiscal numbers in today’s Monetary Policy Statement themselves. The last official Treasury forecasts don’t take account of whatever the government is planning in next week’s Budget, and as the Bank notes ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Charter Schools are a worthwhile addition to our school system – but ACT is mis-selling why they a...
    Rob MacCulloch writes – We know the old saying, “Never trust a politician”, and the Charter School debate is a good example of it. Charter Schools receive public funding, yet “are exempt from most statutory requirements of traditional public schools, including mandates around .. human capital management .. curriculum ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Paranoia On The Left.
    How Do We Silence Them? The ruling obsession of the contemporary Left is that political action undertaken by individuals or groups further to the right than the liberal wings of mainstream conservative parties should not only be condemned, but suppressed.WEB OF CHAOS, a “deep dive into the world of disinformation”, ...
    5 days ago
  • Budget challenges
    Muriel Newman writes –  As the new Government puts the finishing touches to this month’s Budget, they will undoubtedly have had their hands full dealing with the economic mess that Labour created. Not only was Labour a grossly incompetent manager of the economy, but they also set out ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Rishi calls an Election.
    Today the British PM, Rishi Sunak, called a general election for the 4th of July. He spoke of the challenging times and of strong leadership and achievements. It was as if he was talking about someone else, a real leader, rather than he himself or the woeful list of Tory ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Photo of the Day: GNR
    This post marks the return of an old format: Photo of the Day. Recently I was in an apartment in one of those new buildings on Great North Road Grey Lynn at rush hour, perfect day, the view was stunning, so naturally I whipped out my phone: GNR 5pm Turns ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • Choosing landlords and the homeless over first home buyers
    The Government may struggle with the political optics of scrapping assistance for first home buyers while also cutting the tax burden on landlords, increasing concerns over the growing generational divide. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government confirmed it will dump first home buyer grants in the Budget next ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Orr’s warning; three years of austerity
    Yesterday, the Reserve Bank confirmed there will be no free card for the economy to get out of jail during the current term of the Government. Regardless of what the Budget next week says, we are in for three years of austerity. Over those three years, we will have to ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • An admirable U-turn
    It doesn’t inspire confidence when politicians change their minds.  But you must give credit when a bad idea is dropped. Last year, we reported on the determination of British PM Rishi Sunak to lead the world in regulating the dangers of Artificial Intelligence. Perhaps he changed his mind after meeting ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    5 days ago
  • Climate Adam: Can we really suck up Carbon Dioxide?
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Is carbon dioxide removal - aka "negative emissions" - going to save us from climate change? Or is it just a ...
    5 days ago
  • Public funding for private operators in mental health and housing – and a Bill to erase a bit of t...
    Headed for the legislative wastepaper basket…    Buzz from the Beehive It looks like this government is just as ready as its predecessor to dip into the public funds it is managing to dispense millions of dollars to finance – and favour – the parties it fancies. Or ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Why has Einstein Medalist Roy Kerr never been Knighted?
    Rob MacCulloch writes – National and Labour and ACT have at various times waxed on about their “vision” of NZ as a high value-added world tech center What subject is tech based upon? Mathematics. A Chicago mathematician just told me that whereas last decade ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Contestable advice
    Eric Crampton writes –  Danyl McLauchlan over at The Listener on the recent shift toward more contestability in public policy advice in education: Education Minister Erica Stanford, one of National’s highest-ranked MPs, is trying to circumvent the establishment, taking advice from a smaller pool of experts – ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • How did it get so bad?
    Ele Ludemann writes – That Kāinga Ora is a mess is no surprise, but the size of the mess is. There have been many reports of unruly tenants given licence to terrorise neighbours, properties bought and left vacant, and the state agency paying above market rates in competition ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • How serious is an MP’s failure to declare $178k in donations?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  It’s being explained as an “inadvertent error”. However, National MP David MacLeod’s excuse for failing to disclose $178,000 in donations for his election campaign last year is not necessarily enough to prevent some serious consequences. A Police investigation is now likely, and the result ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the privatising of state housing provision, by stealth
    The scathing “independent” review of Kāinga Ora barely hit the table before the coalition government had acted on it. The entire Kāinga Ora board will be replaced, and a new chair (Simon Moutter) has been announced. Hmm. No aspersions on Bill English, but the public would have had more confidence ...
    6 days ago
  • Our House.
    I'll light the fireYou place the flowers in the vaseThat you bought todayA warm dry home, you’d think that would be bread and butter to politicians. Home ownership and making sure people aren’t left living on the street, that’s as Kiwi as Feijoa and Apple Crumble. Isn’t it?The coalition are ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Getting to No
    Politics is about compromise, right?  And framing it so the voters see your compromise as the better one.  John Key was a skilful exponent of this approach (as was Keith Holyoake in an earlier age), and Chris Luxon isn’t too bad either. But in politics, the process whereby an old ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    6 days ago
  • At a glance – How does the Medieval Warm Period compare to current global temperatures?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    6 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: How serious is an MP’s failure to declare $178k in donations?
    It’s being explained as an “inadvertent error”. However, National MP David MacLeod’s excuse for failing to disclose $178,000 in donations for his election campaign last year is not necessarily enough to prevent some serious consequences. A Police investigation is now likely, and the result of his non-disclosure could even see ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago
  • Get your story straight, buddy
    The relentless drone coming out of the Prime Minister and his deputy for a million days now has been that the last government was just hosing  money all over the show and now at last the grownups are in charge and shutting that drunken sailor stuff down. There is a word ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • A govt plane is headed for New Caledonia – here’s hoping the Kiwis stranded there get better ser...
    Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to riot-torn New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home. Today’s flight will carry around 50 passengers with the most ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Who is David MacLeod?
    Precious declaration saysYours is yours and mine you leave alone nowPrecious declaration saysI believe all hope is dead no longerTick tick tick Boom!Unexploded ordnance. A veritable minefield. A National caucus with a large number of unknowns, candidates who perhaps received little in the way of vetting as the party jumped ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • The Four Knights
    Rex Ahdar writes –  The Rt Hon Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, likes to trace his political lineage back to the pioneers of parliamentary Maoridom.   I will refer to these as the ‘big four’ or better still, the Four Knights. Just as ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago
  • Could Willie Jackson be the populist leader that Labour need?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Willie Jackson will participate in the prestigious Oxford Union debate on Thursday, following in David Lange’s footsteps. Coincidentally, Jackson has also followed Lange’s footsteps by living in his old home in South Auckland. And like Lange, Jackson might be the sort of loud-mouth scrapper ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • Minister to Singapore for defence, technology talks
    Defence and Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins departs for Singapore tomorrow for defence and technology summits and meetings. First up is the Asia Tech X Singapore Summit, followed by the Five Power Defence Arrangements Defence Ministers Meeting and wrapping up with the Shangri-La Dialogue for Defence Ministers from ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Major investment in teacher supply through Budget 24
    Over the next four years, Budget 24 will support the training and recruitment of 1,500 teachers into the workforce, Education Minister Erica Stanford announced today. “To raise achievement and develop a world leading education system we’re investing nearly $53 million over four years to attract, train and retain our valued ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Joint statement on the New Zealand – Cook Islands Joint Ministerial Forum – 2024
    1.  New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters; Minister of Health and Minister for Pacific Peoples Hon Dr Shane Reti; and Minister for Climate Change Hon Simon Watts hosted Cook Islands Minister of Foreign Affairs and Immigration Hon Tingika Elikana and Minister of Health Hon Vainetutai Rose Toki-Brown on 24 May ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Middle East, Africa deployments extended
    The Government has approved two-year extensions for four New Zealand Defence Force deployments to the Middle East and Africa, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today. “These deployments are long-standing New Zealand commitments, which reflect our ongoing interest in promoting peace and stability, and making active ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change Commission Chair to retire
    The Climate Change Commission Chair, Dr Rod Carr, has confirmed his plans to retire at the end of his term later this year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Prior to the election, Dr Carr advised me he would be retiring when his term concluded. Dr Rod Carr has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Inaugural Board of Integrity Sport & Recreation Commission announced
    Nine highly respected experts have been appointed to the inaugural board of the new Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission, Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission is a new independent Crown entity which was established under the Integrity Sport and Recreation Act last year, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • A balanced Foreign Affairs budget
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters confirmed today that Vote Foreign Affairs in Budget 2024 will balance two crucial priorities of the Coalition Government.    While Budget 2024 reflects the constrained fiscal environment, the Government also recognises the critical role MFAT plays in keeping New Zealanders safe and prosperous.    “Consistent with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New social housing places to support families into homes
    New social housing funding in Budget 2024 will ensure the Government can continue supporting more families into warm, dry homes from July 2025, Housing Ministers Chris Bishop and Tama Potaka say. “Earlier this week I was proud to announce that Budget 2024 allocates $140 million to fund 1,500 new social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand’s minerals future
    Introduction Today, we are sharing a red-letter occasion. A Blackball event on hallowed ground. Today  we underscore the importance of our mineral estate. A reminder that our natural resource sector has much to offer.  Such a contribution will not come to pass without investment.  However, more than money is needed. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government sets out vision for minerals future
    Increasing national and regional prosperity, providing the minerals needed for new technology and the clean energy transition, and doubling the value of minerals exports are the bold aims of the Government’s vision for the minerals sector. Resources Minister Shane Jones today launched a draft strategy for the minerals sector in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government progresses Māori wards legislation
    The coalition Government’s legislation to restore the rights of communities to determine whether to introduce Māori wards has passed its first reading in Parliament, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Divisive changes introduced by the previous government denied local communities the ability to determine whether to establish Māori wards.” The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • First RMA amendment Bill introduced to Parliament
    The coalition Government has today introduced legislation to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling some of New Zealand’s key sectors, including farming, mining and other primary industries. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop says the Government is committed to  unlocking development and investment while ensuring the environment is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government welcomes EPA decision
    The decision by Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to approve the continued use of hydrogen cyanamide, known as Hi-Cane, has been welcomed by Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay.  “The EPA decision introduces appropriate environmental safeguards which will allow kiwifruit and other growers to use Hi-Cane responsibly,” Ms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech to Employers and Manufacturers Association: Relief for today, hope for tomorrow
    Kia ora, Ngā mihi nui ki a koutou kātoa Tāmaki Herenga Waka, Tāmaki Herenga tangata Ngā mihi ki ngā mana whenua o tēnei rohe Ngāti Whātua ō Ōrākei me nga iwi kātoa kua tae mai. Mauriora. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the EMA for hosting this event. Let me acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government invests in 1,500 more social homes
    The coalition Government is investing in social housing for New Zealanders who are most in need of a warm dry home, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. Budget 2024 will allocate $140 million in new funding for 1,500 new social housing places to be provided by Community Housing Providers (CHPs), not ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • $24 million boost for Gumboot Friday
    Thousands more young New Zealanders will have better access to mental health services as the Government delivers on its commitment to fund the Gumboot Friday initiative, says Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey.  “Budget 2024 will provide $24 million over four years to contract the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill passes first reading
    The Coalition Government’s Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill, which will improve tenancy laws and help increase the supply of rental properties, has passed its first reading in Parliament says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The Bill proposes much-needed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 that will remove barriers to increasing private ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Montecassino Commemorative Address, Cassino War Cemetery
    Standing here in Cassino War Cemetery, among the graves looking up at the beautiful Abbey of Montecassino, it is hard to imagine the utter devastation left behind by the battles which ended here in May 1944. Hundreds of thousands of shells and bombs of every description left nothing but piled ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • First Reading – Repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989
    I present a legislative statement on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill Mr. Speaker, I move that the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill be now read a first time. I nominate the Social Services and Community Committee to consider the Bill. Thank you, Mr. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • First reading of 7AA’s repeal: progress for children
    The Bill to repeal Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has had its first reading in Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the care and safety of children in care, says Minister for Children Karen Chhour.  “When I became the Minister for Children, I made ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • China Business Summit 2024
    Kia ora koutou, good morning, and zao shang hao. Thank you Fran for the opportunity to speak at the 2024 China Business Summit – it’s great to be here today. I’d also like to acknowledge: Simon Bridges - CEO of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce. His Excellency Ambassador - Wang ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Assisted depatures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.    “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Assisted departures from New Caledonia
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home.  “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing them ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government to rollout roadside drug testing
    The Coalition Government will introduce legislation this year that will enable roadside drug testing as part of our commitment to improve road safety and restore law and order, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Alcohol and drugs are the number one contributing factor in fatal road crashes in New Zealand. In ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister responds to review of Kāinga Ora
    The Government has announced a series of immediate actions in response to the independent review of Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “Kāinga Ora is a large and important Crown entity, with assets of $45 billion and over $2.5 billion of expenditure each year. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pseudoephedrine back on shelves
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour is pleased that Pseudoephedrine can now be purchased by the general public to protect them from winter illness, after the coalition government worked swiftly to change the law and oversaw a fast approval process by Medsafe. “Pharmacies are now putting the medicines back on their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand-China Business Summit
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Da jia hao.  Good morning everyone.   Prime Minister Luxon, your excellency, a great friend of New Zealand and my friend Ambassador Wang, Mayor of what he tells me is the best city in New Zealand, Wayne Brown, the highly respected Fran O’Sullivan, Champion of the Auckland business ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New measures to protect powerlines from trees
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events.  “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani win top Māori dairy farming award
    Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • DJ Fred Again – Assurance report received
    "On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden.  “I raised my concerns after being ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • District Court Judges appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Unions should put learning ahead of ideology
    Associate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools.     “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Craig Stobo appointed as chair of FMA
    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Budget 2024 invests in lifeguards and coastguard
    Surf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Tuvalu reaffirm close relationship
    New Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says.  “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019.  “It is my pleasure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand calls for calm, constructive dialogue in New Caledonia
    New Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.  “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.  “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand welcomes Samoa Head of State
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Island Direct eligible for SuperGold Card funding
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