TVNZ Poll – Labour opens 4 point lead

Written By: - Date published: 6:02 pm, September 7th, 2017 - 76 comments
Categories: election 2017, polls - Tags: , , , , ,

Tonight’s TVNZ Poll shows Labour opening a 4 point lead over National.

National drop below 40% (well deserved).

76 comments on “TVNZ Poll – Labour opens 4 point lead”

  1. ScottGN 1

    At 39% National is at its lowest point on Colmar-Brunton since 2005.

  2. Ad 2

    Hold, and inhale.

    Exhale,

    then back to work.

    • r0b 2.1

      Exactly. Long way to go.

    • ScottGN 2.2

      Yeah there’s still plenty to do Ad.
      But this poll comes at a crucial point in the campaign. It totally confirms the ‘time for a change’ mood that has been developing. It sends voters who are going to be advance voting from next Monday a message that Labour really can form the next government.
      And to indulge the dark arts of politics and voter suppression it may well depress National voters enough to deter some of them from bothering to vote.

  3. Sanctuary 3

    Just 3% more and as long as the Greens can do it, a Labour Green government and the possibility of real change beckons…. Come on you Greenies! Pull finger!! DON’T LET US DOWN SO CLOSE TO THE FINISH!

    • tracey 3.1

      I hope some on the Left who want a progressive Labour are beginning to see the importance of Greens getting 5% or more

      • Bearded Git 3.1.1

        Exactly Tracey..the choice now is between Lab/Gr and Lab/NZF….tactically Party Vote Green.

      • Whispering Kate 3.1.2

        I have seen the importance and the Greens are getting my vote this time – first time as I have always voted Labour.

        • tracey 3.1.2.1

          I still do not get Labours resistence to gifting a seat when ghey were happy for Greens to gift them Ohariu.

          Good on you.

    • Thomas Forrow 3.2

      I’ll be in London campaign ing for the Greens

  4. Pat 4

    wonder what the first question to Bill will be tonight?….do you have a sense of deja vu?

  5. McFlock 5

    Greens on 5, nz1 on 9.

    Depending on seats, Labour might be able to govern with the greens, definitely could with nz1 though.

    Looks like I’ll be voting green this year… who woulda thunk it…

    • Karen 5.1

      Me too. The Greens are the ones who need support now to make sure they get over 5%.

      So please – anyone thinking of party voting Mana or TOP don’t waste your vote. The Greens need you and NZ needs the Greens in the next government.

      • Psycho Milt 5.1.1

        So please – anyone thinking of party voting Mana or TOP don’t waste your vote. The Greens need you and NZ needs the Greens in the next government.

        Just repeating that because it bears repeating. If you want a progressive government, vote Green. You’re not going to get one any other way.

        • WILD KATIPO 5.1.1.1

          … ” Just repeating that because it bears repeating. If you want a progressive government, vote Green ” …

          Hehehe… I been thinking that way ever since Andrew L stood down… was going to cast my vote to bolster Labour, but then along came Adern ,… now I’ll be happily voting Greens to bolster them up ,…

          End objective in this war?

          Take out the neo liberal extremists and destroy the National party enemy. And their fiefdom ACT.

          Quite simple , really.

      • tracey 5.1.2

        Well said Karen. Very well said.

      • Bearded Git 5.1.3

        +100 Karen

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 5.1.4

        The necessary Green support is likely to come from otherwise Labour voters – hopefully Labour can absorb a few more percent from otherwise Nat/Non/NZ1 voters to make up for it.

      • Anne 5.1.5

        Too tribal Labour Karen but I will have a word with my young relatives. First better make sure they’re enrolled.

    • Bearded Git 5.2

      Nice one McFlock

  6. red-blooded 6

    At present, Labour could govern with the Greens + Māori Party, or with NZF. We can’t get complacent, though. Nat+ACT+NZF+Māori could still get there.

    It makes their smug joggers ad look pretty damn foolish, though! Wonder how much we’ll see that wee masterpiece from now on…

    • Nat+ACT+NZF+Māori could still get there.

      What would one call that? Fortunately, National already gifted us the term “coalition of chaos.” Thanks, National.

    • tracey 6.2

      Maori have always said they would speak first to highest polling party, dont they?

      • DS 6.2.1

        They’re the brown wing of the National Party, and need to be treated as such.

        • John up North 6.2.1.1

          Sadly, this is true and I feel the MP have let Aotearoa down badly. Time to kick the barstards out of the tent and into purgatory where they belong.

        • adam 6.2.1.2

          Oh look, a cheap racist analysis.

          How very droll.

          • DS 6.2.1.2.1

            How is it racist? The Maori Party are as much a part of the National Coalition as ACT is. They just appeal to a different electorate.

  7. One Anonymous Bloke 7

    What period does the survey cover? Surely that flailing gimp Joyce has added another point or two to Labour this last week.

  8. Brendan 8

    If you’re a regular Green voter that has changed to Labour: go back to Green or else you won’t get the progressive government you wanted, hence the reason you’ve voted Green.

    • greg 8.1

      if Tamaki Coffee removes the moari party it brings a lab green government closer the greens need to hold on above 5 percent 7 percent even better

  9. Stuart Munro 9

    Although it’s somewhat reassuring in some respects I think the usual poll skepticism applies. Nevertheless it will be interesting to watch the contortions of the MSM pundits as they try to both run damage control for National, and not fatally compromise themselves in the eyes of the rising tide of Labour supporters.

  10. eco Maori/kiwi 10

    I’m going to vote green we need a green Labour government I’m predicting the green will gain with whats going on in the Atlantic

  11. mickysavage 11

    Wow if this was a fight the ref would have stepped in by now. Ardern is wiping the floor with English!

  12. silvertuatara 12

    silvertuatara 6
    7 September 2017 at 6:54 pm

    I stand within a crowd,
    of unknown numbers,
    Big Data, has not seen me,
    Big Data has not heard my story.

    Contained,
    within the newly created,
    “social Investment state”
    here unknown numbers,
    get manipulated to control our fate.

    I am but one of many,
    whom have fallen through the cracks,
    of a government who refuses to measure,
    the social cost,
    of punitive policy that gives them pleasure.

    The binary configuration,
    feeds his Big Data needs,
    of reducing financial liability,
    for which he has chosen to overlook,
    the real term costs to humanity,
    with negligible accountability.

    The Mockingjay is in the air,
    having risen to address fairness and inequality,
    The Mockingjay has seen us,
    The Mockinjay has heard us,
    not long before,
    together we set ourselves free.

    For now we have seen you Mockingbird,
    and we have heard the meaning,
    within your actions and words,
    which has gained our trust,
    and provided our nation with a fairer vision,
    where our individuality,
    need not be restricted to a,
    series of unknown numbers.

    My spirit stands along side you,
    And while my heart knows,
    that I am but only one,
    your call our Mockingjay,
    has resonated within the souls of many,
    and together we will now answer,
    your call,
    with our pledge of allegiance.

    Lets look past the grumpy,
    old white men,
    whose sense of entitlement,
    and desire to retain power,
    in our ever changing world,
    through exclusivity,
    no longer serves us all,
    in our modern world.

    While Katniss brought change with arrows,
    your positive words and realistic vision,
    so eloquently delivered with passion and strength,
    has proven no less accurate,
    in disrupting for the benefit of all,
    the status quo that would have seen,
    the continued entrenchment,
    and widening chasm of inequality.

    You have seen me Mockingjay,
    You have seen us Mokingjay,
    You have heard me Mockingjay,
    You have heard us Mokingjay,
    and as diverse individuals,
    we now walk together with conviction,
    in the direction that your inspiring,
    and shared vision is heading.

    We have heard you Jacinda,
    You have awoken us,
    and the time is now right,
    for a more just and fair,
    readjustment of the founding tenants,
    of what we value as a Nation.

    Lets leave behind,
    in yesterday’s shadow,
    the grumpy old white men,
    desperately attempting to cling to power,
    and awaken on the 24th September 2017
    enthusiastic and ready to create,
    our better, fairer and more equitable
    future for our Nation.

    https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=mockingjay+salute&safe=active&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiy3_r4vJLWAh

    • greywarshark 12.1

      I like silvertuatara
      In the verse second to last where it says ‘founding tenants’ was it meant ‘founding tenets’ (principle, dogma, doctrine).

      (Tenants could fit also as “occupants (of any place), or person holding real property by private ownership.

  13. Robert Guyton 13

    “The Joyce effect seems to be the opposite of the Jacinda effect.”

    Great quote from Pete George (credit where credit’s due 🙂

  14. ScottGN 14

    National dropping 2 points on the last Colmar-Brunton and NZFirst edging up explains a lot of National’s campaign decisions in the last week.

    • I think you’re right. I’m also quietly wishing them success in their endeavours. It would be funny to see National manage to suck enough votes off NZ First to drive it below 5% and get ca 40+ % of its vote redistributed to Labour and Green (not that I think that will happen, but I enjoyed picturing it).

  15. ScottGN 15

    I love how ACT are steady on 0.1%. That should be thrown in Richard Prebble’s face every bloody day.

  16. ScottGN 16

    Biggest risk for National now is that it starts to bleed support across its voter base to all the various parties who are likely to make up the next government.

  17. swordfish 17

    Comparisons (2005-17)

    Colmar Brunton (2-3 Weeks out)

    CB Sep 2017 ….…..…. Sep 2014 ….….. Nov 2011 …….… Oct 2008 …….… Aug 2005

    Nat … 39 …………………. 50 (- 11) …….…. 54 (- 15)………….. 47 (- 8) ……….… 46 (- 7)

    Lab … 43 …………………. 26 (+ 17)…….…. 28 (+ 15)……..…. 35 (+ 8) ……….… 38 (+ 5)

    NZF … 9 …………….…..…. 7 (+ 2) ……………3 (+ 6).………….… 3 (+ 6) ……… .… 5 (+ 4)

    Green 5 ………….…..….…11 (- 6) ……….…. 9 (- 4).…..……..…. 8 (- 3) …… … .… 6 (- 1)

    • swordfish 17.1

      Colmar Brunton Preferred PM

      (2-3 Weeks out)

      CB Sep 2017 ….…….…. Sep 2014 ……..…… Nov 2011 ….……… Oct 2008

      English 31 ……………..……Key 48 …………….…Key 55 …….….….…. Key 38

      Ardern 35 ……….…… Cunliffe 14 ……….….…Goff 14 …..….….….•Clark 37

      Peters . 5 …………………..Peters 4 …..…….… Peters ? ……….……. Peters 3

  18. nzsage 18

    How are ACT doing in Epsom polls? If that Nats lose by winning that seat then things may get closer still!

  19. This evening’s the first time I’ve started feeling like “Fuck this might actually happen.” Tipping point reached, I think.

    • ropata 19.1

      the Nats are flailing. for 9 years they have invested in spin merchants rather than fixing real issues.

      like the NZ public, the Nats were taken in by john key’s pump and dump ponzi scheme. their credibility is completely shot.

      • WILD KATIPO 19.1.1

        Exactly , – and as frail as a hens egg to crack. All it needed was a catalyst and down the National party went like the Titanic.

        And that catalyst was obviously Jacinda Adern.

        Its over for National.

  20. NewsFlash 20

    A credit to Ardern to say publically that she will be ringing the Greens first, and then reiterated that she stands by her word.

    Joyce was HUMILIATED, couldn’t identify a single individual to back up his statement about the $11B hole, even when asked< IT COULD BE A TAXI DRIVER,GIVE ME A NAME, repeated multiple times, NO NAME, except Bill, full on laughter at Joyce, Zero credibility

  21. lurgee 21

    Interesting. Looks like I have been colossally wrong (again) on Ardern’s impact.

    I hate being wrong, but no so much I’d wish another three years of National on us all, just so I could say, “I told you so!”

  22. Ken 22

    I can’t see any way out of this for the rotten Nats.
    If they had any kind of dirty politics game changer they would have to have used it by now.

    • As for the Nats, … it is this , Frodo,…

      Sinking of the Titanic – YouTube
      titanic sinking you tube▶ 1:57

      • KJT 22.1.1

        Rowing together and in unison towards the iceberg.

        Excellent metaphor for the soon to be gone, National!

        And their incompetent Governance, for the last nine years.

  23. Patricia Bremner 23

    I think Jacinda may be better than we begin to believe.

    She will over achieve on any goal. As she said “I’m hard on myself”

    • I think you are quite right, Patricia,… I did not , – or was suspicious – of Adern / Robertson pre 2014,… I felt they were too ‘ Blairite’… but after watching Robertson V Joyce in an interview I was even more disgusted by Joyce and his rudeness and constant inane giggling and speaking over Robertson.

      I , – and most other Kiwi’s dislike haughtiness.

      When Adern became leader, and we saw her lovely demeanor and uplifting politeness, and decorum ,… I thought , wow !… we must have this person as our leader.

      And , on the world stage , … what an absolute asset to make us all proud.

      Someone who will stand their ground yet with compassion and fairness.

      As she said, … ‘ My word is my bond’.

      Now, being from the country , and being a bit old school myself , a handshake and your word is a sign you mean what you say. It shows integrity , decency and honour. What country can ever go wrong with values such as this ? What a great set of values to be known by in this dark world.

      And that’s why people are responding , and that’s why Adern will almost certainly be our next Prime Minister.

      • Katipo 23.1.1

        Have to agree fellow katipo, Jacinda will be great asset for NZ on the world stage, a breath of fresh air and beacon of hope in a world of Brexit, Trump, Putin & North Korea etc.

  24. millsy 25

    Looks good, but not over till the fuller figured lady sings…

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