TVOne’s reporting of the latest Colmar Brunton Poll result

Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, October 20th, 2015 - 90 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, greens, john key, labour, making shit up, Media, national, nz first, Politics, polls, spin, tv, winston peters, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

I try to avoid commercial television and radio.  Too many egos and the commercial agenda is too transparent.  This is why I believe state media has such an important role to play. Radio New Zealand for instance does a very good job in providing in depth analytical Stories on current events.  But Television New Zealand leaves a lot to be desired.

Last night’s report on the latest Colmar Brunton poll is a classic example of its failure to report a story properly.

The written article started by saying that Andrew Little was “down to single figures (eight per cent)” while “John Key remains well ahead.”  It then reported on the party support figures.  But it did not report that the opposition parties now have a significant advantage over National and that support for National’s support parties is disappearing.

The film was even worse.  It felt like a John Key love in with video of him speaking to the UN and being a soldier boy in Iraq being shown.  What a guy.  He had the chance to make comments on various issues and even had the chance to say that National was finishing the year quite strong.

Meanwhile the only presentation of Andrew Little was negative with the reporting essentially being that he was not polling that well and how he must be worried.

But the changes in the poll were all within the margin of error for the poll.  Little going down 2% and Jacinta Ardern going up 1% suggests a marginal change if one actually occurred.  All of the movements were minor and within the realm of statistical noise.

And get this.  The one damning statistic, that on these polling numbers National would be out of office WAS NOT EVEN MENTIONED.

I wonder if Television New Zealand has heard about the Research Association of New Zealand’s political polling code?   This is a document which sets out best practice guidelines for the conducting and reporting of political polls in New Zealand.  The code includes these rules:

  • Stories should focus on changes that are statistically significant
  • Stories should focus on significant trends, which may not be just between the current and last poll, but over a number of polls
  • Stories should include analysis of not just individual party results, but also likely “bloc” results as the highest polling party may not be most likely to get to form Government

Arguably each of these rules were broken by the analysis.  The changes in the results were not statistically significant, the current trend is essentially there is no change and the failure to report the block result is as startling an omission as you can imagine.

And concentration on preferred Prime Minister rankings is rather silly when you think that the only vote that matters in an MMP system is that which the parties enjoy.

The overall trend is fine for the left.  On these figures Labour has increased its support by 6% points since the last election and the opposition block is already well ahead.  I can confidently predict that National’s support will not improve and with the absence of a viable coalition partner it will struggle next election.  Unless National wants to swallow a rather large dead rat and make Winston Prime Minister.

90 comments on “TVOne’s reporting of the latest Colmar Brunton Poll result ”

  1. esoteric pineapples 1

    It is going to be New Zealand First who decides what government we have at the next election. Sadly, I am predicting they will go with National on the argument that they can keep them honest and not too extreme in their policies, although I am quite happy to be proven wrong.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 1.1

      50/50 I reckon, which probably means Winston Peters will come up with some bizarre third option.

    • Leftie 1.2

      @esoteric pineapples

      I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that Winston Peter’s, who hates John key, and hasn’t supported a National government for almost 20 years, (last time he apologized for it), is going to go with National.

      • Chooky 1.2.1

        +100 Leftie…and NZF certainly would not have done a deal with jonkey nact on the flag like Greens leader James Shaw did..rescuing John key

        ( …hence undercutting Andrew Little’s bottom line that the present flag , the most popular flag choice of NZers, should be included in the first referendum, saving the country the cost of a second referendum)

        … NZF has unequivocally denounced the TPP…and states it is their intention to repeal any agreement if in government ( no other party has done this)

        …so quite a few votes will be heading to NZF next Election imo

    • John 1.3

      But remember that Labour/Greens combined are at 43% v Nats at 47%. In two years time we may not need NZ First. Peter’s has got a fairly strong quite left caucus too who simply hate Key. They may mutiny on this if Peters insists on National.

  2. Tracey 2

    Out of office? Unless NZF went with National/ACT/UF/MP?

  3. Can you lay a formal complaint?

    • savenz 3.1

      +1 – lay a complaint. Otherwise they will keep doing it.

      • dukeofurl 3.1.1

        BSA will easily swat that away as ‘being trivial’

        Im not sure that its allowed in the legislation but they do.

        • savenz 3.1.1.1

          Just lay a complaint anyway. With the All blacks tweeting go Nats on election day and our State broadcaster obviously reporting a very slanted picture of the polls, putting TV1 on notice with a complaint will at least get a message across.

          • dukeofurl 3.1.1.1.1

            Tsk tsk. They dont take any notice of those things unless they are ‘upheld’

            Its hardly a complaint they will take seriously that someting is only mentioned in the 5th paragraph.

            What is more interetsing is the different reporters for different media put much the same tack on it.

            Collusion ?. More likely is they got it ‘pre- written ‘ from Keys media team and Key was available to do a voice to camera and response while Little wasnt available ?

    • Tracey 3.2

      on basis of lack of balance, readily available.

  4. One Anonymous Bloke 4

    RANZ needs to put its house in order: Dirty Curia are members.

    How hard is it to enforce their code of practice?

    • dukeofurl 4.1

      For many years he wasnt a member, which was was strange, but it must have conflicted with ‘other priorities’

  5. Karen 5

    The emphasis in the story on polling for preferred PM is ridiculous because as they know only the party vote counts.

    TVNZ also failed to point out that a whopping 32% of respondents responded to the preferred PM with ‘don’t know’, making it even more ridiculous to make the story about this, and not the fact that National no longer has enough support to form a government with current partners (party preference has12% don’t knows).

    Appalling bias shown by our state broadcaster.

    • Tracey 5.1

      I’m sure they aren’t

    • Anne 5.2

      TV1 is no better than the Herald, TV3 and ZB Radio – hopelessly compromised with a blatant disregard for objective reporting. They are hollow men and women who have little connection to political or social reality. Case in point: Q+A last Sunday morning introduced panel member, Josie Pagani as… a member of the Labour Party and representing the LEFT. No more need be said.

      • maui 5.2.1

        If Pagani had any moral fortitude she would refuse to be on any media unless she wasn’t portrayed as representing Labour or any other left parties in any way. How about just political commentator? But she keeps on misrepresenting groups, fucking hell.

    • ianmac 5.3

      “TVNZ also failed to point out that a whopping 32% of respondents responded to the preferred PM with ‘don’t know’”
      And that Karen is the most significant statistic! It does show that about 300/1000 polled are no longer enamoured with Key.

      • Bob 5.3.1

        “And that Karen is the most significant statistic! It does show that about 920/1000 polled are no longer enamoured with Little”
        Doesn’t look too good when you put it that way does it?

        • maui 5.3.1.1

          When has the majority ever wanted Little as PM? His popularity rankings have always been low and that’s just the nature of being the opposition leader.

        • Karen 5.3.1.2

          John Key has been the Prime Minister for 7 years. Everybody knows who he is and that he is the PM. That 27% of the 1000 people polled named him as their preferred PM doesn’t surprise me.

          Andrew Little has been the leader of the Labour Party for less than a year, and he had a very low media profile in the years before that. I suspect that a majority of New Zealanders still have not formed any opinion of him at all, and a fair few still don’t know who he is. The 32% ‘don’t knows’ reflects that situation.

          Is that a problem? Two years out from the election I don’t think so.

          Little said he would spend his first year getting the Labour caucus working together and travelling the country meeting people. Next year I would hope polls show a steady increase in party preferences for both the Green and Labour Parties, but the preferred PM is unlikely to change very much until we are closer to the election.

    • b waghorn 5.4

      I think an unintended consequence of MMP is we have ended up with a form of presidential type politics so preferred prime minister does have a bit of weight to it .

  6. Ed 6

    I don’t understand why they are still assuming that United Future will gain a seat – I thought Dunne had announced he was retiring. It is most unlikely that Ohariu will return a replacement United Future MP. Whether that would result in a net gain to any particular party depends on the application of the formula – a good illustration of why the changes in support shown by the survey are well within any margin of error.

  7. RedLogix 7

    Almost as bad as Claire Trevett’s effort:

    New Zealand First up, Labour down in latest poll

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11531667

    • Bearded Git 7.1

      @redlogix

      Where she says NZF’s 9% “is within cooee” of the Greens 12% “. NZF have to up their vote by 33% to get level with the Greens.

  8. Iceberg 8

    Dealing with powerlessness by shooting the messenger is getting a bit old, don’t you think?

    • dukeofurl 8.1

      Ask the Brits about ‘dont shoot the messenger’ meme. I bet they wish they used both barrels.

      You start with bad reporting and then go to bad polling – the whole point is to give a close prediction of an actual election result.

      The UK pollster had the last say: they blamed the voters for not telling the truth…mmmm.

      In reality the methodology is wrong, they ask the wrong questions ( at the end of the usual consumerist pap questions) and in the wrong way.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.2

      31 + 12 + 9 = being the messenger’s employer 😆

  9. Brutus Iscariot 9

    “And get this. The one damning statistic, that on these polling numbers National would be out of office WAS NOT EVEN MENTIONED.”

    That’s just as much fantasy as the NZH interpretation.

  10. Colonial Viper 10

    The Left has needed its own MSM channel for years now. Still we are left complaining about the corporate MSM that we have, despite the fact that they are not going to change who their masters are.

    • Nessalt 10.1

      You do know what MSM stands for don’t you? The only way you could achieve this is by having a private finder. They would have to be pretty loaded which would have you sleeping with the enemy as you see the enemy. See how this doesn’t work?

    • geoff 10.2

      Haha yeah what the left needs is another echo chamber, eh CV!

  11. Puckish Rogue 12

    Ahhh Micky I can always tell when you’re worried

    National 47% vs Lab/Grns 43% which means the left have to rely on Winston Peters whereas National might have to rely on Winston

    and this coming on the back of the Roy Morgan poll as well:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6506-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2015-201510150600

    But well done in geeing up the troops 🙂

    • mickysavage 12.1

      So you want to rely on Peters in two years time?

      Besides in just over 12 months Labour/Green have gone from 36% to 43%. Looks like a very acceptable medium trend to me.

      • Puckish Rogue 12.1.1

        Do I want to rely on Winston, of course not but then neither do you and remember for Winston it’ll be a choice between working with National only or working with Labour and the Greens and the more you slice that pie the less pie there is to go round…not that winston enjoys the baubles of office no sir

        The real problem the left has is that National is still roughly at the same level of support they’ve been at for the last couple of election cycles whereas Labour is still trying to get to the previous levels of David Shearer

        Now Labour has to hope that the TPPA (which doesn’t seem to have hurt National) will be a bust whereas the likelyhood is it’ll just get better

        • Leftie 12.1.1.1

          @Puckish Rogue

          I think the fall out of the TPPA is yet to hit National, who are fortunate to have msm onside.

          Labour under David Cunliffe polled higher than under David Shearer, so why would Labour want to go back to that?

          • Puckish Rogue 12.1.1.1.1

            So we can expect Labour will poll similar at the next election then?

            • Leftie 12.1.1.1.1.1

              @Puckish Rogue

              Can you expect John Key’s dirty politics to produce the same outcome next time?

              • Puckish Rogue

                There was no “dirty politics” there was only only politics but yes I expect a similar electoral result for National with maybe even an extra seat of two for Act

                • McFlock

                  really? You didn’t read the book of that title, then?

                  • Puckish Rogue

                    And how well has the smear job worked out for the left? National still in power, John Key still riding high in the polls, National still high in the polls and Labour going nowhere fast

                    • McFlock

                      You know you’re arguing with a tory when they think that disclosing the secret connections between a minister and pay-for-spray muckrackers is a “smear job”.

                      Yes, national is still in power. And you’re still a moral vacuum who thinks that babies being killed by state houses is part of some game.

                    • mickysavage

                      Smear job? Pffft the left are amateurs compared to you guys.

                • Leftie

                  @Puckish Rogue

                  You are in denial, it was all about John key’s dirty politics, he couldn’t have won without it, and if the media had of told the truth, National would not have been elected.
                  Given that people are more aware of National’s dirty politics, and National have already lost a safe seat since the election, and with Colmar Brunton suggesting that National would be down another 2 seats, maybe the outcome would NOT be the same as last time.

    • Leftie 12.2

      @Puckish Rogue

      You have nothing to crow about. By all accounts, John Key and National have stalled in the polls. Even by Roy Morgan’s dubious rankings, JK and the Nats are no longer hitting those big 50+’s like they used to. The right are trending downwards, the left are trending up.

      • Puckish Rogue 12.2.1

        I agree that the left will win the 2020 elction if it makes you feel better

        • Leftie 12.2.1.1

          @Puckish Rogue

          It may be sooner than that, and how I “feel” about it is irrelevant.

          • Puckish Rogue 12.2.1.1.1

            No it really won’t be sooner

            • Leftie 12.2.1.1.1.1

              @Puckish Rogue

              How do you know? It may very well be sooner than you would like to think.

              • Puckish Rogue

                A. National is still high in the polls
                B. John Key is even higher in the preferred PM stakes
                C. Andrew Little is in a race with Winston Peters for preferred PM which, considering the difference in party sizes, suggests that theres not even a lot of support for Andrew Little to be PM in Labour
                D. How many leaders won elections with low preferred polling numbers
                E. The economy is still chugging along quite nicely, employment is still reasonable and the outlook is still looking pretty good
                F. Mortgage rates are still low

                • Leftie

                  John key, stick at 40% used to ride high in the 50’s and in some polls the 60’s and has lost a lot of support over the last few years. Some Labour PM’s polled low prior to becoming PM’s. Wasn’t Helen Clark polling at just 2% at some point?

                  Who are the pollsters really polling? it still doesn’t suggest “theres not even a lot of support for Andrew Little to be PM in Labour”

                  The economy is tanking, coupled with an unprecedented level of government debt. Not a very bright future for most. The last 7 years have been an unmitigated disaster.

      • Bob 12.2.2

        It might be best to check the Poll of Polls before suggesting trends that don’t exist: http://polity.co.nz/poll-of-polls

    • tracey 12.3

      Sigh, It isn’t a game. There are real people’s lives getting worse.

      • Leftie 12.3.1

        Who implied it was a game?

        • tracey 12.3.1.1

          Anyone who talks about it as winning and losing and is poll pre-occupied

          • McFlock 12.3.1.1.1

            i.e. our local moral vacuums.

          • Leftie 12.3.1.1.2

            @Tracey

            Well, it is an article on the Colmar Brunton poll and TV One’s, (namely Kate Bradford’s), skewered reporting of it that we are commenting on.

            • Grindlebottom 12.3.1.1.2.1

              I just can’t get my head around Katie Bradford as TV One’s political reporter. She just seems a real lightweight who treats the role like a spot on Entertainment Tonight.

  12. Bea Brown 13

    McFlock
    If state houses kill children does that make Michael Joseph Savage NZ’s very own mass murderer?

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      reminder to all well heeled toffs: it’s not a damn game.

    • maui 13.2

      So Savage organised the building of homes that were stated as being the very best of their time, improved the housing stock and you’re saying this killed people? I’m not sure if you’re joking or not. They could also afford heating back then.

      • Anne 13.2.1

        Ignore the troll!

      • Naki man 13.2.2

        “They could also afford heating back then.”
        Well that is if you call an open fire heating.

        • John Shears 13.2.2.1

          What else would you call it Naki man?
          Some of the comments you and others make on this thread are just plain stupid.

          I grew up in the Sth Island with really hard frosts and snow in the winter. Heating was open fires in 2 rooms and the kitchen range Kauri Villa no insulation.
          Plenty of wood and coal and yes it was heating all right. How do you think we survived 30 to 38 degree frosts ? If you forgot to turn off the water and drain the pipes they would burst as would the radiators in cars if not drained. No electric blankets Hot Water bottles which would also be frozen in the morning.
          Get a life.

    • North 13.3

      Go away Bea Brown. The dogs in the street know you as an unhinged right wing loon’. Go pash your Ponce Key dolly. And to you Naki……history will be rewritten on account of your perspicacity noting that MJ Savage callously denied the poor heat pumps, way back in ’35. Well done……oaf !

  13. Colonial Viper 14

    Having just read the TV One news article:

    The National Party remains steady on 47 per cent, while Labour is down one to 31, and the Green Party is on 12.

    New Zealand First is up two to nine per cent.

    So, LAB + GR is still four points behind National. And the MSM is not going to make assumptions about who Winston is going to go with.

    To me the only fair and factual headline would be:

    Labour/Greens fall short of National; Winston the King Maker

    We also know why the MSM didn’t run that line. Too much spotlight on NZ First.

  14. Saarbo 15

    Yep, watched the article and thought exactly the same as you MS, very annoying as don’t bother with TV3 since they told us they aren’t interested in serious NEWS. Not convinced TVNZ are either, a hopeless biased article.

  15. Melb 16

    “But the changes in the poll were all within the margin of error for the poll. Little going down 2% and Jacinta Ardern going up 1% suggests a marginal change if one actually occurred. All of the movements were minor and within the realm of statistical noise.”

    Hey Mickey, this demonstrates a common misunderstanding about the margin of error.

    The stated MOE applies at the polling mark of 50%. At much lower response rates the margin of error is also much lower. So a change of 2% when Andrew Little is only polling 8-10% is going to still be statistically significant.

    A lot of people get this wrong, hopefully you change it so as to not spread the misinformation further.

  16. Melb 17

    “And get this. The one damning statistic, that on these polling numbers National would be out of office WAS NOT EVEN MENTIONED.”

    Big call mate. On these numbers Labour + Greens would also be out of office. It all hinges upon what Winston chooses. I think you would be making a mistake to assume NZ First will automatically side with Labour and the Greens – have you already forgotten 1996?

    • lprent 17.1

      …have you already forgotten 1996?

      Winston hasn’t forgotten 1998

      On 14 August 1998, Shipley sacked Peters from Cabinet. This occurred after an ongoing dispute about the sale of the government’s stake in Wellington International Airport. The issue itself appeared merely the outward manifestation of much deeper disagreement.

      Peters immediately broke off the coalition with National.

      Or that Shipley and National then proceeded to try to destroy Nz First.

      Then there is 2008 and the National party campaign against NZ First using their Act hand puppets.

      In the months before the 2008 general election, New Zealand First became embroiled in a dispute over donations to the party from Owen Glenn, the Vela family and Bob Jones. This resulted in an investigation into party finances by the Serious Fraud Office on 28 August 2008 and an investigation into Peters by the Privileges Committee.[12] On 29 August 2008 Peters stood down from his ministerial roles while the investigations were ongoing.[13] Although the Serious Fraud Office and the police both found that Peters was not guilty of any wrongdoing, the episode harmed Peters and the party in the lead-up to the election.[14]

      Basically it was lousy bookkeeping by what was essentially a rather amateurish political party. But it was neither corrupt nor illegal. I doubt that Winston wants anything to do with the political arseholes who engineered those. He’d prefer to force a minority government with no agreement rather than deal with such scum again – especially John Key.

      The only thing that I can see causing a problem with NZ First and a ‘left’ coalition is that Winston & NZ First don’t trust the Greens after their role in the kangaroo kourt travesty at the privileges committee in 2008. Sure they were getting their own back for 2005. It wasn’t wise.

    • Draco T Bastard 17.2

      No and I’m pretty sure that Winston hasn’t either. As a populist MP leading a populist political party he really screwed up there going against what popular opinion wanted which was to get rid of National.

      He won’t do that again.

  17. Mike S 18

    In regards to Little’s 8% as preferred PM. Does this mean that roughly 75% of those who would vote Labour don’t prefer Little as PM? (or don’t know who he is (the 32% don’t know) Because surely you would expect him to be closer to the Labour party vote percentage?

    Also, I see they still don’t acknowledge the fact that they use a landlines only sample selection. I don’t know anyone with a landline and none of them are National voters. (Except my parents who have a landline and are National voters.)

    • Melb 18.1

      Colmar Brunton were the most accurate poll in line with the 2014 election. The don’t sample landlines, but would account for that in their methodology.

      Two polling outfits sample mobiles – Roy Morgan which came middle of the pack, and TV3/Reid Research, which came dead last.

      So sampling mobiles isn’t all some people think it’s cracked up to be.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 18.1.1

        “most accurate”

        Not to rain on their parade, given their track record, it’s far more likely the ‘accuracy’ was a fluke. Wait ’til they’ve done it two or three times in a row before popping the cork.

      • Leftie 18.1.2

        @Melb

        Most accurate? No way. Generally the pollsters over exaggerate National’s ratings, then just out from the election result they adjust it. Not to mention the fact, that changes in technology have made polling inaccurate.

        Roy Morgan say they use landlines and mobile phone numbers, given that less people use landlines now, and there is no white pages that list peoples “current” mobile numbers, and telcos do not give out that kind of information, how does Roy Morgan etc get mobile phone numbers to randomly call?

        • Chooky 18.1.2.1

          +100… unfortunately the polls are a self -fulfilling prophecy…and their sampling is far from accurate…many people wont talk to pollsters .

          • Grindlebottom 18.1.2.1.1

            I don’t blame them. Some pollsters are the devil’s spawn. I’ll bet it’s been scientifically proven somewhere on the dark web.

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    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    18 hours ago
  • The Case for a Universal Family Benefit
    One Could Reduce Child Poverty At No Fiscal CostFollowing the Richardson/Shipley 1990 ‘redesign of the welfare state’ – which eliminated the universal Family Benefit and doubled the rate of child poverty – various income supplements for families have been added, the best known being ‘Working for Families’, introduced in 2005. ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    19 hours ago
  • A who’s who of New Zealand’s dodgiest companies
    Submissions on National's corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law are due today (have you submitted?), and just hours before they close, Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop has been forced to release the list of companies he invited to apply. I've spent the last hour going through it in an epic thread of bleats, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    21 hours ago
  • On Lee’s watch, Economic Development seems to be stuck on scoring points from promoting sporting e...
    Buzz from the Beehive A few days ago, Point of Order suggested the media must be musing “on why Melissa is mute”. Our article reported that people working in the beleaguered media industry have cause to yearn for a minister as busy as Melissa Lee’s ministerial colleagues and we drew ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    21 hours ago
  • New Zealand has never been closed for business
    1. What was The Curse of Jim Bolger?a. Winston Peters b. Soon after shaking his hand, world leaders would mysteriously lose office or shuffle off this mortal coilc. Could never shake off the Mother of All Budgetsd. Dandruff2. True or false? The Chairman of a Kiwi export business has asked the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    22 hours ago
  • Stop the panic – we’ve been here before
    Jack Vowles writes – New Zealand is said to be suffering from ‘serious populist discontent’. An IPSOS MORI survey has reported that we have an increasing preference for strong leaders, think that the economy is rigged toward the rich and powerful, and political elites are ignoring ‘hard-working people’.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago
  • Melissa Lee and the media: ending the quest
    Chris Trotter writes –  MELISSA LEE should be deprived of her ministerial warrant. Her handling – or non-handling – of the crisis engulfing the New Zealand news media has been woeful. The fate of New Zealand’s two linear television networks, a question which the Minister of Broadcasting, Communications ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 day ago
  • The Hoon around the week to April 19
    TL;DR: The podcast above features co-hosts and , along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, and on climate change.The six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • The ‘Humpty Dumpty’ end result of dismantling our environmental protections
    Policymakers rarely wish to make plain or visible their desire to dismantle environmental policy, least of all to the young. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Nicola's Salad Days.
    I like to keep an eye on what’s happening in places like the UK, the US, and over the ditch with our good mates the Aussies. Let’s call them AUKUS, for want of a better collective term. More on that in a bit.It used to be, not long ago, that ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 day ago
  • Study sees climate change baking in 19% lower global income by 2050
    TL;DR: The global economy will be one fifth smaller than it would have otherwise been in 2050 as a result of climate damage, according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published in the journal Nature. (See more detail and analysis below, and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-April-2024
    It’s Friday again. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week on Greater Auckland On Tuesday Matt covered at the government looking into a long tunnel for Wellington. On Wednesday we ran a post from Oscar Simms on some lessons from Texas. AT’s ...
    1 day ago
  • Jack Vowles: Stop the panic – we’ve been here before
    New Zealand is said to be suffering from ‘serious populist discontent’. An IPSOS MORI survey has reported that we have an increasing preference for strong leaders, think that the economy is rigged toward the rich and powerful, and political elites are ignoring ‘hard-working people’.  The data is from February this ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 day ago
  • Clearing up confusion (or trying to)
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters is understood to be planning a major speech within the next fortnight to clear up the confusion over whether or not New Zealand might join the AUKUS submarine project. So far, there have been conflicting signals from the Government. RNZ reported the Prime Minister yesterday in ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 day ago
  • How to Retrieve Deleted Call Log iPhone Without Computer
    How to Retrieve Deleted Call Log on iPhone Without a Computer: A StepbyStep Guide Losing your iPhone call history can be frustrating, especially when you need to find a specific number or recall an important conversation. But before you panic, know that there are ways to retrieve deleted call logs on your iPhone, even without a computer. This guide will explore various methods, ranging from simple checks to utilizing iCloud backups and thirdparty applications. So, lets dive in and recover those lost calls! 1. Check Recently Deleted Folder: Apple understands that accidental deletions happen. Thats why they introduced the Recently Deleted folder for various apps, including the Phone app. This folder acts as a safety net, storing deleted call logs for up to 30 days before permanently erasing them. Heres how to check it: Open the Phone app on your iPhone. Tap on the Recents tab at the bottom. Scroll to the top and tap on Edit. Select Show Recently Deleted. Browse the list to find the call logs you want to recover. Tap on the desired call log and choose Recover to restore it to your call history. 2. Restore from iCloud Backup: If you regularly back up your iPhone to iCloud, you might be able to retrieve your deleted call log from a previous backup. However, keep in mind that this process will restore your entire phone to the state it was in at the time of the backup, potentially erasing any data added since then. Heres how to restore from an iCloud backup: Go to Settings > General > Reset. Choose Erase All Content and Settings. Follow the onscreen instructions. Your iPhone will restart and show the initial setup screen. Choose Restore from iCloud Backup during the setup process. Select the relevant backup that contains your deleted call log. Wait for the restoration process to complete. 3. Explore ThirdParty Apps (with Caution): ...
    1 day ago
  • How to Factory Reset iPhone without Computer: A Comprehensive Guide to Restoring your Device
    Life throws curveballs, and sometimes, those curveballs necessitate wiping your iPhone clean and starting anew. Whether you’re facing persistent software glitches, preparing to sell your device, or simply wanting a fresh start, knowing how to factory reset iPhone without a computer is a valuable skill. While using a computer with ...
    2 days ago
  • How to Call Someone on a Computer: A Guide to Voice and Video Communication in the Digital Age
    Gone are the days when communication was limited to landline phones and physical proximity. Today, computers have become powerful tools for connecting with people across the globe through voice and video calls. But with a plethora of applications and methods available, how to call someone on a computer might seem ...
    2 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16 2024
    Open access notables Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost, Creel et al., Nature Communications: Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2 of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control ...
    2 days ago
  • Where on a Computer is the Operating System Generally Stored? Delving into the Digital Home of your ...
    The operating system (OS) is the heart and soul of a computer, orchestrating every action and interaction between hardware and software. But have you ever wondered where on a computer is the operating system generally stored? The answer lies in the intricate dance between hardware and software components, particularly within ...
    2 days ago
  • How Many Watts Does a Laptop Use? Understanding Power Consumption and Efficiency
    Laptops have become essential tools for work, entertainment, and communication, offering portability and functionality. However, with rising energy costs and growing environmental concerns, understanding a laptop’s power consumption is more important than ever. So, how many watts does a laptop use? The answer, unfortunately, isn’t straightforward. It depends on several ...
    2 days ago
  • How to Screen Record on a Dell Laptop A Guide to Capturing Your Screen with Ease
    Screen recording has become an essential tool for various purposes, such as creating tutorials, capturing gameplay footage, recording online meetings, or sharing information with others. Fortunately, Dell laptops offer several built-in and external options for screen recording, catering to different needs and preferences. This guide will explore various methods on ...
    2 days ago
  • How Much Does it Cost to Fix a Laptop Screen? Navigating Repair Options and Costs
    A cracked or damaged laptop screen can be a frustrating experience, impacting productivity and enjoyment. Fortunately, laptop screen repair is a common service offered by various repair shops and technicians. However, the cost of fixing a laptop screen can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article delves into the ...
    2 days ago
  • How Long Do Gaming Laptops Last? Demystifying Lifespan and Maximizing Longevity
    Gaming laptops represent a significant investment for passionate gamers, offering portability and powerful performance for immersive gaming experiences. However, a common concern among potential buyers is their lifespan. Unlike desktop PCs, which allow for easier component upgrades, gaming laptops have inherent limitations due to their compact and integrated design. This ...
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: Turning the tide
    The annual inventory report of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions has been released, showing that gross emissions have dropped for the third year in a row, to 78.4 million tons: All-told gross emissions have decreased by over 6 million tons since the Zero Carbon Act was passed in 2019. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • How to Unlock Your Computer A Comprehensive Guide to Regaining Access
    Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
    2 days ago
  • Faxing from Your Computer A Modern Guide to Sending Documents Digitally
    While the world has largely transitioned to digital communication, faxing still holds relevance in certain industries and situations. Fortunately, gone are the days of bulky fax machines and dedicated phone lines. Today, you can easily send and receive faxes directly from your computer, offering a convenient and efficient way to ...
    2 days ago
  • Protecting Your Home Computer A Guide to Cyber Awareness
    In our increasingly digital world, home computers have become essential tools for work, communication, entertainment, and more. However, this increased reliance on technology also exposes us to various cyber threats. Understanding these threats and taking proactive steps to protect your home computer is crucial for safeguarding your personal information, finances, ...
    2 days ago
  • Server-Based Computing Powering the Modern Digital Landscape
    In the ever-evolving world of technology, server-based computing has emerged as a cornerstone of modern digital infrastructure. This article delves into the concept of server-based computing, exploring its various forms, benefits, challenges, and its impact on the way we work and interact with technology. Understanding Server-Based Computing: At its core, ...
    2 days ago
  • Vroom vroom go the big red trucks
    The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Jones finds $410,000 to help the government muscle in on a spat project
    Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • Again, hate crimes are not necessarily terrorism.
    Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 days ago
  • Despair – construction consenting edition
    Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Coalition promises – will the Govt keep the commitment to keep Kiwis equal before the law?
    Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
    Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • What happens after the war – Mariupol
    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    2 days ago
  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    2 days ago
  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    2 days ago
  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    3 days ago
  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    4 days ago
  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    4 days ago
  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • PM’s South East Asia mission does the business
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
    New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
    The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Judicial appointments announced
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
    Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
    A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
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