TVOne’s reporting of the latest Colmar Brunton Poll result

Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, October 20th, 2015 - 90 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, greens, john key, labour, making shit up, Media, national, nz first, Politics, polls, spin, tv, winston peters, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

I try to avoid commercial television and radio.  Too many egos and the commercial agenda is too transparent.  This is why I believe state media has such an important role to play. Radio New Zealand for instance does a very good job in providing in depth analytical Stories on current events.  But Television New Zealand leaves a lot to be desired.

Last night’s report on the latest Colmar Brunton poll is a classic example of its failure to report a story properly.

The written article started by saying that Andrew Little was “down to single figures (eight per cent)” while “John Key remains well ahead.”  It then reported on the party support figures.  But it did not report that the opposition parties now have a significant advantage over National and that support for National’s support parties is disappearing.

The film was even worse.  It felt like a John Key love in with video of him speaking to the UN and being a soldier boy in Iraq being shown.  What a guy.  He had the chance to make comments on various issues and even had the chance to say that National was finishing the year quite strong.

Meanwhile the only presentation of Andrew Little was negative with the reporting essentially being that he was not polling that well and how he must be worried.

But the changes in the poll were all within the margin of error for the poll.  Little going down 2% and Jacinta Ardern going up 1% suggests a marginal change if one actually occurred.  All of the movements were minor and within the realm of statistical noise.

And get this.  The one damning statistic, that on these polling numbers National would be out of office WAS NOT EVEN MENTIONED.

I wonder if Television New Zealand has heard about the Research Association of New Zealand’s political polling code?   This is a document which sets out best practice guidelines for the conducting and reporting of political polls in New Zealand.  The code includes these rules:

  • Stories should focus on changes that are statistically significant
  • Stories should focus on significant trends, which may not be just between the current and last poll, but over a number of polls
  • Stories should include analysis of not just individual party results, but also likely “bloc” results as the highest polling party may not be most likely to get to form Government

Arguably each of these rules were broken by the analysis.  The changes in the results were not statistically significant, the current trend is essentially there is no change and the failure to report the block result is as startling an omission as you can imagine.

And concentration on preferred Prime Minister rankings is rather silly when you think that the only vote that matters in an MMP system is that which the parties enjoy.

The overall trend is fine for the left.  On these figures Labour has increased its support by 6% points since the last election and the opposition block is already well ahead.  I can confidently predict that National’s support will not improve and with the absence of a viable coalition partner it will struggle next election.  Unless National wants to swallow a rather large dead rat and make Winston Prime Minister.

90 comments on “TVOne’s reporting of the latest Colmar Brunton Poll result”

  1. esoteric pineapples 1

    It is going to be New Zealand First who decides what government we have at the next election. Sadly, I am predicting they will go with National on the argument that they can keep them honest and not too extreme in their policies, although I am quite happy to be proven wrong.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 1.1

      50/50 I reckon, which probably means Winston Peters will come up with some bizarre third option.

    • Leftie 1.2

      @esoteric pineapples

      I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that Winston Peter’s, who hates John key, and hasn’t supported a National government for almost 20 years, (last time he apologized for it), is going to go with National.

      • Chooky 1.2.1

        +100 Leftie…and NZF certainly would not have done a deal with jonkey nact on the flag like Greens leader James Shaw did..rescuing John key

        ( …hence undercutting Andrew Little’s bottom line that the present flag , the most popular flag choice of NZers, should be included in the first referendum, saving the country the cost of a second referendum)

        … NZF has unequivocally denounced the TPP…and states it is their intention to repeal any agreement if in government ( no other party has done this)

        …so quite a few votes will be heading to NZF next Election imo

    • John 1.3

      But remember that Labour/Greens combined are at 43% v Nats at 47%. In two years time we may not need NZ First. Peter’s has got a fairly strong quite left caucus too who simply hate Key. They may mutiny on this if Peters insists on National.

  2. Tracey 2

    Out of office? Unless NZF went with National/ACT/UF/MP?

  3. Can you lay a formal complaint?

    • savenz 3.1

      +1 – lay a complaint. Otherwise they will keep doing it.

      • dukeofurl 3.1.1

        BSA will easily swat that away as ‘being trivial’

        Im not sure that its allowed in the legislation but they do.

        • savenz 3.1.1.1

          Just lay a complaint anyway. With the All blacks tweeting go Nats on election day and our State broadcaster obviously reporting a very slanted picture of the polls, putting TV1 on notice with a complaint will at least get a message across.

          • dukeofurl 3.1.1.1.1

            Tsk tsk. They dont take any notice of those things unless they are ‘upheld’

            Its hardly a complaint they will take seriously that someting is only mentioned in the 5th paragraph.

            What is more interetsing is the different reporters for different media put much the same tack on it.

            Collusion ?. More likely is they got it ‘pre- written ‘ from Keys media team and Key was available to do a voice to camera and response while Little wasnt available ?

    • Tracey 3.2

      on basis of lack of balance, readily available.

  4. One Anonymous Bloke 4

    RANZ needs to put its house in order: Dirty Curia are members.

    How hard is it to enforce their code of practice?

    • dukeofurl 4.1

      For many years he wasnt a member, which was was strange, but it must have conflicted with ‘other priorities’

  5. Karen 5

    The emphasis in the story on polling for preferred PM is ridiculous because as they know only the party vote counts.

    TVNZ also failed to point out that a whopping 32% of respondents responded to the preferred PM with ‘don’t know’, making it even more ridiculous to make the story about this, and not the fact that National no longer has enough support to form a government with current partners (party preference has12% don’t knows).

    Appalling bias shown by our state broadcaster.

    • Tracey 5.1

      I’m sure they aren’t

    • Anne 5.2

      TV1 is no better than the Herald, TV3 and ZB Radio – hopelessly compromised with a blatant disregard for objective reporting. They are hollow men and women who have little connection to political or social reality. Case in point: Q+A last Sunday morning introduced panel member, Josie Pagani as… a member of the Labour Party and representing the LEFT. No more need be said.

      • maui 5.2.1

        If Pagani had any moral fortitude she would refuse to be on any media unless she wasn’t portrayed as representing Labour or any other left parties in any way. How about just political commentator? But she keeps on misrepresenting groups, fucking hell.

    • ianmac 5.3

      “TVNZ also failed to point out that a whopping 32% of respondents responded to the preferred PM with ‘don’t know’”
      And that Karen is the most significant statistic! It does show that about 300/1000 polled are no longer enamoured with Key.

      • Bob 5.3.1

        “And that Karen is the most significant statistic! It does show that about 920/1000 polled are no longer enamoured with Little”
        Doesn’t look too good when you put it that way does it?

        • maui 5.3.1.1

          When has the majority ever wanted Little as PM? His popularity rankings have always been low and that’s just the nature of being the opposition leader.

        • Karen 5.3.1.2

          John Key has been the Prime Minister for 7 years. Everybody knows who he is and that he is the PM. That 27% of the 1000 people polled named him as their preferred PM doesn’t surprise me.

          Andrew Little has been the leader of the Labour Party for less than a year, and he had a very low media profile in the years before that. I suspect that a majority of New Zealanders still have not formed any opinion of him at all, and a fair few still don’t know who he is. The 32% ‘don’t knows’ reflects that situation.

          Is that a problem? Two years out from the election I don’t think so.

          Little said he would spend his first year getting the Labour caucus working together and travelling the country meeting people. Next year I would hope polls show a steady increase in party preferences for both the Green and Labour Parties, but the preferred PM is unlikely to change very much until we are closer to the election.

    • b waghorn 5.4

      I think an unintended consequence of MMP is we have ended up with a form of presidential type politics so preferred prime minister does have a bit of weight to it .

  6. Ed 6

    I don’t understand why they are still assuming that United Future will gain a seat – I thought Dunne had announced he was retiring. It is most unlikely that Ohariu will return a replacement United Future MP. Whether that would result in a net gain to any particular party depends on the application of the formula – a good illustration of why the changes in support shown by the survey are well within any margin of error.

  7. RedLogix 7

    Almost as bad as Claire Trevett’s effort:

    New Zealand First up, Labour down in latest poll

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11531667

    • Bearded Git 7.1

      @redlogix

      Where she says NZF’s 9% “is within cooee” of the Greens 12% “. NZF have to up their vote by 33% to get level with the Greens.

  8. Iceberg 8

    Dealing with powerlessness by shooting the messenger is getting a bit old, don’t you think?

    • dukeofurl 8.1

      Ask the Brits about ‘dont shoot the messenger’ meme. I bet they wish they used both barrels.

      You start with bad reporting and then go to bad polling – the whole point is to give a close prediction of an actual election result.

      The UK pollster had the last say: they blamed the voters for not telling the truth…mmmm.

      In reality the methodology is wrong, they ask the wrong questions ( at the end of the usual consumerist pap questions) and in the wrong way.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.2

      31 + 12 + 9 = being the messenger’s employer 😆

  9. Brutus Iscariot 9

    “And get this. The one damning statistic, that on these polling numbers National would be out of office WAS NOT EVEN MENTIONED.”

    That’s just as much fantasy as the NZH interpretation.

  10. Colonial Viper 10

    The Left has needed its own MSM channel for years now. Still we are left complaining about the corporate MSM that we have, despite the fact that they are not going to change who their masters are.

    • Nessalt 10.1

      You do know what MSM stands for don’t you? The only way you could achieve this is by having a private finder. They would have to be pretty loaded which would have you sleeping with the enemy as you see the enemy. See how this doesn’t work?

    • geoff 10.2

      Haha yeah what the left needs is another echo chamber, eh CV!

  11. Puckish Rogue 12

    Ahhh Micky I can always tell when you’re worried

    National 47% vs Lab/Grns 43% which means the left have to rely on Winston Peters whereas National might have to rely on Winston

    and this coming on the back of the Roy Morgan poll as well:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6506-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2015-201510150600

    But well done in geeing up the troops 🙂

    • mickysavage 12.1

      So you want to rely on Peters in two years time?

      Besides in just over 12 months Labour/Green have gone from 36% to 43%. Looks like a very acceptable medium trend to me.

      • Puckish Rogue 12.1.1

        Do I want to rely on Winston, of course not but then neither do you and remember for Winston it’ll be a choice between working with National only or working with Labour and the Greens and the more you slice that pie the less pie there is to go round…not that winston enjoys the baubles of office no sir

        The real problem the left has is that National is still roughly at the same level of support they’ve been at for the last couple of election cycles whereas Labour is still trying to get to the previous levels of David Shearer

        Now Labour has to hope that the TPPA (which doesn’t seem to have hurt National) will be a bust whereas the likelyhood is it’ll just get better

        • Leftie 12.1.1.1

          @Puckish Rogue

          I think the fall out of the TPPA is yet to hit National, who are fortunate to have msm onside.

          Labour under David Cunliffe polled higher than under David Shearer, so why would Labour want to go back to that?

          • Puckish Rogue 12.1.1.1.1

            So we can expect Labour will poll similar at the next election then?

            • Leftie 12.1.1.1.1.1

              @Puckish Rogue

              Can you expect John Key’s dirty politics to produce the same outcome next time?

              • Puckish Rogue

                There was no “dirty politics” there was only only politics but yes I expect a similar electoral result for National with maybe even an extra seat of two for Act

                • McFlock

                  really? You didn’t read the book of that title, then?

                  • Puckish Rogue

                    And how well has the smear job worked out for the left? National still in power, John Key still riding high in the polls, National still high in the polls and Labour going nowhere fast

                    • McFlock

                      You know you’re arguing with a tory when they think that disclosing the secret connections between a minister and pay-for-spray muckrackers is a “smear job”.

                      Yes, national is still in power. And you’re still a moral vacuum who thinks that babies being killed by state houses is part of some game.

                    • mickysavage

                      Smear job? Pffft the left are amateurs compared to you guys.

                • Leftie

                  @Puckish Rogue

                  You are in denial, it was all about John key’s dirty politics, he couldn’t have won without it, and if the media had of told the truth, National would not have been elected.
                  Given that people are more aware of National’s dirty politics, and National have already lost a safe seat since the election, and with Colmar Brunton suggesting that National would be down another 2 seats, maybe the outcome would NOT be the same as last time.

    • Leftie 12.2

      @Puckish Rogue

      You have nothing to crow about. By all accounts, John Key and National have stalled in the polls. Even by Roy Morgan’s dubious rankings, JK and the Nats are no longer hitting those big 50+’s like they used to. The right are trending downwards, the left are trending up.

      • Puckish Rogue 12.2.1

        I agree that the left will win the 2020 elction if it makes you feel better

        • Leftie 12.2.1.1

          @Puckish Rogue

          It may be sooner than that, and how I “feel” about it is irrelevant.

          • Puckish Rogue 12.2.1.1.1

            No it really won’t be sooner

            • Leftie 12.2.1.1.1.1

              @Puckish Rogue

              How do you know? It may very well be sooner than you would like to think.

              • Puckish Rogue

                A. National is still high in the polls
                B. John Key is even higher in the preferred PM stakes
                C. Andrew Little is in a race with Winston Peters for preferred PM which, considering the difference in party sizes, suggests that theres not even a lot of support for Andrew Little to be PM in Labour
                D. How many leaders won elections with low preferred polling numbers
                E. The economy is still chugging along quite nicely, employment is still reasonable and the outlook is still looking pretty good
                F. Mortgage rates are still low

                • Leftie

                  John key, stick at 40% used to ride high in the 50’s and in some polls the 60’s and has lost a lot of support over the last few years. Some Labour PM’s polled low prior to becoming PM’s. Wasn’t Helen Clark polling at just 2% at some point?

                  Who are the pollsters really polling? it still doesn’t suggest “theres not even a lot of support for Andrew Little to be PM in Labour”

                  The economy is tanking, coupled with an unprecedented level of government debt. Not a very bright future for most. The last 7 years have been an unmitigated disaster.

      • Bob 12.2.2

        It might be best to check the Poll of Polls before suggesting trends that don’t exist: http://polity.co.nz/poll-of-polls

    • tracey 12.3

      Sigh, It isn’t a game. There are real people’s lives getting worse.

      • Leftie 12.3.1

        Who implied it was a game?

        • tracey 12.3.1.1

          Anyone who talks about it as winning and losing and is poll pre-occupied

          • McFlock 12.3.1.1.1

            i.e. our local moral vacuums.

          • Leftie 12.3.1.1.2

            @Tracey

            Well, it is an article on the Colmar Brunton poll and TV One’s, (namely Kate Bradford’s), skewered reporting of it that we are commenting on.

            • Grindlebottom 12.3.1.1.2.1

              I just can’t get my head around Katie Bradford as TV One’s political reporter. She just seems a real lightweight who treats the role like a spot on Entertainment Tonight.

  12. Bea Brown 13

    McFlock
    If state houses kill children does that make Michael Joseph Savage NZ’s very own mass murderer?

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      reminder to all well heeled toffs: it’s not a damn game.

    • maui 13.2

      So Savage organised the building of homes that were stated as being the very best of their time, improved the housing stock and you’re saying this killed people? I’m not sure if you’re joking or not. They could also afford heating back then.

      • Anne 13.2.1

        Ignore the troll!

      • Naki man 13.2.2

        “They could also afford heating back then.”
        Well that is if you call an open fire heating.

        • John Shears 13.2.2.1

          What else would you call it Naki man?
          Some of the comments you and others make on this thread are just plain stupid.

          I grew up in the Sth Island with really hard frosts and snow in the winter. Heating was open fires in 2 rooms and the kitchen range Kauri Villa no insulation.
          Plenty of wood and coal and yes it was heating all right. How do you think we survived 30 to 38 degree frosts ? If you forgot to turn off the water and drain the pipes they would burst as would the radiators in cars if not drained. No electric blankets Hot Water bottles which would also be frozen in the morning.
          Get a life.

    • North 13.3

      Go away Bea Brown. The dogs in the street know you as an unhinged right wing loon’. Go pash your Ponce Key dolly. And to you Naki……history will be rewritten on account of your perspicacity noting that MJ Savage callously denied the poor heat pumps, way back in ’35. Well done……oaf !

  13. Colonial Viper 14

    Having just read the TV One news article:

    The National Party remains steady on 47 per cent, while Labour is down one to 31, and the Green Party is on 12.

    New Zealand First is up two to nine per cent.

    So, LAB + GR is still four points behind National. And the MSM is not going to make assumptions about who Winston is going to go with.

    To me the only fair and factual headline would be:

    Labour/Greens fall short of National; Winston the King Maker

    We also know why the MSM didn’t run that line. Too much spotlight on NZ First.

  14. Saarbo 15

    Yep, watched the article and thought exactly the same as you MS, very annoying as don’t bother with TV3 since they told us they aren’t interested in serious NEWS. Not convinced TVNZ are either, a hopeless biased article.

  15. Melb 16

    “But the changes in the poll were all within the margin of error for the poll. Little going down 2% and Jacinta Ardern going up 1% suggests a marginal change if one actually occurred. All of the movements were minor and within the realm of statistical noise.”

    Hey Mickey, this demonstrates a common misunderstanding about the margin of error.

    The stated MOE applies at the polling mark of 50%. At much lower response rates the margin of error is also much lower. So a change of 2% when Andrew Little is only polling 8-10% is going to still be statistically significant.

    A lot of people get this wrong, hopefully you change it so as to not spread the misinformation further.

  16. Melb 17

    “And get this. The one damning statistic, that on these polling numbers National would be out of office WAS NOT EVEN MENTIONED.”

    Big call mate. On these numbers Labour + Greens would also be out of office. It all hinges upon what Winston chooses. I think you would be making a mistake to assume NZ First will automatically side with Labour and the Greens – have you already forgotten 1996?

    • lprent 17.1

      …have you already forgotten 1996?

      Winston hasn’t forgotten 1998

      On 14 August 1998, Shipley sacked Peters from Cabinet. This occurred after an ongoing dispute about the sale of the government’s stake in Wellington International Airport. The issue itself appeared merely the outward manifestation of much deeper disagreement.

      Peters immediately broke off the coalition with National.

      Or that Shipley and National then proceeded to try to destroy Nz First.

      Then there is 2008 and the National party campaign against NZ First using their Act hand puppets.

      In the months before the 2008 general election, New Zealand First became embroiled in a dispute over donations to the party from Owen Glenn, the Vela family and Bob Jones. This resulted in an investigation into party finances by the Serious Fraud Office on 28 August 2008 and an investigation into Peters by the Privileges Committee.[12] On 29 August 2008 Peters stood down from his ministerial roles while the investigations were ongoing.[13] Although the Serious Fraud Office and the police both found that Peters was not guilty of any wrongdoing, the episode harmed Peters and the party in the lead-up to the election.[14]

      Basically it was lousy bookkeeping by what was essentially a rather amateurish political party. But it was neither corrupt nor illegal. I doubt that Winston wants anything to do with the political arseholes who engineered those. He’d prefer to force a minority government with no agreement rather than deal with such scum again – especially John Key.

      The only thing that I can see causing a problem with NZ First and a ‘left’ coalition is that Winston & NZ First don’t trust the Greens after their role in the kangaroo kourt travesty at the privileges committee in 2008. Sure they were getting their own back for 2005. It wasn’t wise.

    • Draco T Bastard 17.2

      No and I’m pretty sure that Winston hasn’t either. As a populist MP leading a populist political party he really screwed up there going against what popular opinion wanted which was to get rid of National.

      He won’t do that again.

  17. Mike S 18

    In regards to Little’s 8% as preferred PM. Does this mean that roughly 75% of those who would vote Labour don’t prefer Little as PM? (or don’t know who he is (the 32% don’t know) Because surely you would expect him to be closer to the Labour party vote percentage?

    Also, I see they still don’t acknowledge the fact that they use a landlines only sample selection. I don’t know anyone with a landline and none of them are National voters. (Except my parents who have a landline and are National voters.)

    • Melb 18.1

      Colmar Brunton were the most accurate poll in line with the 2014 election. The don’t sample landlines, but would account for that in their methodology.

      Two polling outfits sample mobiles – Roy Morgan which came middle of the pack, and TV3/Reid Research, which came dead last.

      So sampling mobiles isn’t all some people think it’s cracked up to be.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 18.1.1

        “most accurate”

        Not to rain on their parade, given their track record, it’s far more likely the ‘accuracy’ was a fluke. Wait ’til they’ve done it two or three times in a row before popping the cork.

      • Leftie 18.1.2

        @Melb

        Most accurate? No way. Generally the pollsters over exaggerate National’s ratings, then just out from the election result they adjust it. Not to mention the fact, that changes in technology have made polling inaccurate.

        Roy Morgan say they use landlines and mobile phone numbers, given that less people use landlines now, and there is no white pages that list peoples “current” mobile numbers, and telcos do not give out that kind of information, how does Roy Morgan etc get mobile phone numbers to randomly call?

        • Chooky 18.1.2.1

          +100… unfortunately the polls are a self -fulfilling prophecy…and their sampling is far from accurate…many people wont talk to pollsters .

          • Grindlebottom 18.1.2.1.1

            I don’t blame them. Some pollsters are the devil’s spawn. I’ll bet it’s been scientifically proven somewhere on the dark web.

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    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    3 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    3 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    5 days ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    5 days ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    6 days ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    6 days ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    6 days ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    7 days ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    7 days ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Democracy – I Don’t Think So
    So, those who “know best” have again done their worst. While constantly claiming to be the guardians of democracy and the constitution, and respecters of the 2016 referendum result, diehard Remainers (who have never brought themselves to believe that their advice could have been rejected) have striven might and main ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago

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