UMR has Len Brown ahead of Banks

Written By: - Date published: 1:45 pm, July 23rd, 2009 - 30 comments
Categories: auckland supercity, john banks, len brown, polls - Tags: , , ,

brown-small

Len Brown

UMR’s just released a poll showing Manukau mayor Len Brown as the preferred mayor of the Auckland Super City, slightly ahead of John Banks. The poll shows Brown on 35%, Banks on 34%, and 31% undecided.

They’ve also done a matchup between Banks and Auckland Regional Council chair Mike Lee. Banks left Lee in the dust with 35% to 18%.

Len Brown will be stoked, this really opens up the race. I’m strongly in favour of the idea of a series of democratic primaries pulling in the broader Left so we can unite behind one candidate. On these results Brown would have to be the early favourite.

UMR’s full analysis is here.

30 comments on “UMR has Len Brown ahead of Banks ”

  1. Ari 1

    “Democratic primaries”? Let me see, are we in america? No? Then that’s an oxymoron. Systems that rely on primaries reduce our choice of candidates and rely on similar “unite behind me or suffer” attitudes to FPP, which it seems like the posters here agree is a bad system. I can’t see why you’d want primaries when we could instead be looking for a voting system that is neither beneficial nor detrimental to “clones”, or rather, candidates that compete for similar constituencies.

    • Eddie 1.1

      Because when you’re in an FPP system splitting the vote may give you “choice” of sorts, but it’s a fraud because the result will not reflect the preferences of the voters. There’s nothing democratic in letting a candidate win complete power on 30% of the vote.

      Primaries wouldn’t stop anyone from standing, they’d just be a way for the wider Left to say ‘we’re going to throw our combined strength behind this candidate’. The loser in a primary race could still stand, they’d just have no organisational backing behind them.

      • Draco T Bastard 1.1.1

        There’s nothing democratic in letting a candidate win complete power on 30% of the vote.

        That’s why we should have STV which, although not optimal, is still better than primaries IMO.

        • Ari 1.1.1.1

          I still maintain that we should be going for a truly evaluative system like approval or range voting for single-seat contests like Mayor of Superauckland instead of settling for STV.

          • jarbury 1.1.1.1.1

            I submitted asking for STV. So did a LOT of people.

            This is good news, Len Brown would make an awesome super city Mayor. Anything to slap down John Banks’ ego to be honest.

  2. MikeG 2

    I’m no fan of Banks, but the subject line (and the lines being run by Radio NZ and the NZ Herald) overstate the result somewhat – the difference in polling between Brown and Banks is well within the margin of error.

  3. Zaphod Beeblebrox 3

    Where was Bob?
    I would predict he will poll better against Banks than Brown. Did you notice that Banks had a nine point lead among the West respondents? This was I suspect the people who want to vote for Bob sitting it out rather than support Brown.
    If Len and Bob play their cards right (ie don’t take each other out), they may both do very well in October next year.

  4. ak 4

    Excellent sign. Only certainty is that it’ll be a stark Left/Right clash and an important pointer to 2011; so sort out the Len/Bob thing quick and hit the ground with fury and troops to ensure a good turn out of the er Brown vote.

  5. StephenR 5

    MikeG, it’s significant that in the story there is a reference to a poll taken earlier where Brown was waaaay behind.

  6. Deep Throat 6

    Many people on the right will now reconsider their support for Banks because the conception that he is the leading candidate has now evaporated. Michael Barnett from the Auckland Chamber of Commerce must be thinking he has a shot now. Banks has been telling anyone who will listen that he has the Super City sown up and has been running the other possible candidates down. However I hear there is growing discontent on the right as to the best candidate. Many people now sense Banks just doesn’t have enough support across the city.

  7. MikeG 7

    That’s right StephenR – therefore the headline should be something along the lines of “Brown closes gap on Banks”.

  8. StephenR 8

    Banks has been telling anyone who will listen that he has the Super City sown up and has been running the other possible candidates down.

    Where? All i’ve seen lately is him saying how he wants lots of people running to make it competitive and how he respects the other mayors and just wants to give them all a great big hug!

    However I hear there is growing discontent on the right as to the best candidate. Many people now sense Banks just doesn’t have enough support across the city.

    Unsubstantiated rumours by an anonymous blog commenter, love it.

  9. StephenR 9

    That’s right StephenR therefore the headline should be something along the lines of “Brown closes gap on Banks’.

    Well Brown’s strictly overtaken him, so depends how accurate one wants to be.

  10. gobsmacked 10

    If the contest is between Banks (National) and Brown (Labour), I hope they – and the media – are open about their party affiliations.

    I’m more than happy to have genuinely independent candidates running for Mayor, but not the faux-parties of CitRats, etc. Especially when the super-sized electorates will inevitably require a revved-up party machine to campaign.

  11. MikeG 11

    If you want to be accurate then read the statement about the margin of error for the poll – “The margin of error for sample size of 482 for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is ± 4.5%.”
    (Note that the moe at 34-35% is less than 4.5%, but certainly greater than 1%.)

    • snoozer 11.1

      With that margin of error, it’s more likely that Brown is ahead of Banks than behind.

      You shouldn’t get so upset about the technicalities of a title, the fact is you’re upset about what the poll shows – that Banks has this far from sown up, I mean he’s the only one campaiging and he’s not winning.

      • MikeG 11.1.1

        Read the first sentence of my first post – “I’m no fan of Banks” – I hope that Brown is ahead, but polls are only polls and there is a long way to go. We don’t even know who the candidates are!

  12. Tim Ellis 12

    Interesting result. I’m not questioning UMR’s research, but I do wonder if the Labour Party commissioned the question in the omnibus poll, as UMR is Labour’s own polling company.

    • jarbury 12.1

      You’re not questioning their research but….. oh hold on you are.

      • Pascal's bookie 12.1.1

        No no , he said he wasn’t jarbury. He was just saying that he wonders if Labour commissioned the question. He presumably will tell us why he thinks this would be of any interest at all to anyone, seeing he is definatly not questioning UMR’s honesty. Which makes a change.

        “Labour’s own polling company” is not meant to imply anything at all either. Perfectly innocent use of colloquial language, Tim’s ever so sloppy and imprecise with words. If people get the wrong impression from the things he says, it mortifies him.

        • jarbury 12.1.1.1

          No no , he said he wasn’t jarbury.

          He wouldn’t lie to us would he?

          • Pascal's bookie 12.1.1.1.1

            He would never be so blatantly dishonest jarbury. It would be beneath him.

        • Tim Ellis 12.1.1.2

          Goodness me, PB, you are sensitive tonight.

          I am not questioning the quality of the research or the data. I am questioning who commissioned the question, because I think that is relevant. I don’t see UMR publishing a lot of its polling information. So either the publication of this information was just for publicity for UMR, or the person who commissioned the question wanted the information released.

          Given UMR’s historically strong links with the Labour Party, I think it is very useful information to have. If the poll had said, for example, that Mr Banks was fifty points ahead of Mr Brown and Mr Lee, then would UMR have published that information? Possibly not, if the Labour Party, or Mr Brown, or somebody associated with Mr Brown had commissioned the question.

          The data itself is superficially interesting, but I am interested in the motive for publishing it. The conclusion from the data is that Mr Brown would be a better candidate against Mr Banks than Mr Lee would be. Is it intended that this polling data is used to promote Mr Brown’s case for being the Labour candidate for Super Mayor?

          I think these are relevant questions, PB. Just as it is relevant if Mr Farrar publishes a poll that is commissioned by the National Party, or Family First.

          • Pascal's bookie 12.1.1.2.1

            I think you are the sensitive one Tim. You seem to think I questioned you. How odd. I merely wondered why you would think it interesting to know if Labour commissioned the poll.

            It turns out that once again you are questioning UMR’s honesty and ethics. Would it be so hard to simply say so from the outset, rather than just hint at this strange pointless skullduggery that you claim, without any evidence at all, may exist?

            • Tim Ellis 12.1.1.2.1.1

              No, PB, your comment was riddled with sarcasm.

              I didn’t question the research, as jarbury suggested. I question if there is a political motive behind the question and its release. I also question if the information would have been released if it had not been favourable towards Len Brown over Mike Lee.

              I would think Mike Lee might be very annoyed if a poll question associated with the Labour Party was being used to spoil his chances for a tilt at the supermayoralty race.

            • Pascal's bookie 12.1.1.2.1.2

              The sarcasm you inferred turned out to be perfectly appropriate Tim. I was just following your lead.

              You are implying that UMR is acting in a dishonest way, without any evidence whatsoever.

              It’s the same bullshit smear that you ran in the linked thread. Why don’t you just get in touch with UMR and ask them if it interests you so much?

              Instead you just publicly question their integrity. To what end Tim? What is your motive here?

            • Pascal's bookie 12.1.1.2.1.3

              You seem to think that unless UMR say that a poll is commissioned by the Labour party, then it’s just natural to assume that it could be. As if they should have to tell us when a poll isn’t commissioned by Labour as well as when it is.

              Surely you see that this is stupid.

  13. Tim Ellis 13

    PB, plenty of people question the quality of research that Mr Farrar does on behalf of his clients, even though he is upfront about his associations.

    In my view there is a clear political association between the Labour Party and UMR. A single question that forms a press release like this does raise questions.

    I am not questioning UMR’s research. I am questioning if there is a political motivation behind publicising it.

    • Pascal's bookie 13.1

      I think you’re being paranoid. And the DPF thing isn’t actually apples and oranges as I explained in the other thread, unless you’ve got an example of someone alleging similar behavior to what you are suggesting?

  14. StephenR 14

    MikeG, you win, this time.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • EV road user charges bill passes
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April.  “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Bill targets illegal, unregulated fishing in international waters
    New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • Reserve Bank appointments
    Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates.  Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • Stronger protections for apartment owners
    Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Travel focused on traditional partners and Middle East
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend.    “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says.   Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Keep safe on our roads this Easter
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • Cost of living support for over 1.4 million Kiwis
    About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Tenancy reviews for social housing restart
    Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary plan halted
    The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Cutting all that dam red tape
    Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track.  “Dam safety regulations ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Drought support extended to parts of North Island
    The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Passage of major tax bill welcomed
    The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Lifting economy through science, tertiary sectors
    Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government announces Budget priorities
    The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government to consider accommodation solution
    The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government approves extension to Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care
    Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says.                                         “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • $18m boost for Kiwis travelling to health treatment
    The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says.   “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • PM’s Prizes for Space to showcase sector’s talent
    The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Concerns conveyed to China over cyber activity
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government.     “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry
    Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function.  The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Brynderwyns open for Easter
    State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the Infrastructure Funding & Financing Conference
    Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Parliamentary network breached by the PRC
    New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ to provide support for Solomon Islands election
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ-EU FTA gains Royal Assent for 1 May entry to force
    The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union.    “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • COVID-19 inquiry attracts 11,000 submissions
    Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says.  “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Families to receive up to $75 a week help with ECE fees
    Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Unlocking a sustainable, low-emissions future
    A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Chief of Army thanked for his service
    Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders
    25 March 2024 Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders Small Business, Manufacturing, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly will travel to Australia for a series of bi-lateral meetings and manufacturing visits. During the visit, Minister Bayly will meet with his Australian counterparts, Senator Tim Ayres, Ed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government commits nearly $3 million for period products in schools
    Government commits almost $3 million for period products in schools The Coalition Government has committed $2.9 million to ensure intermediate and secondary schools continue providing period products to those who need them, Minister of Education Erica Stanford announced today. “This is an issue of dignity and ensuring young women don’t ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech – Making it easier to build.
    Good morning, it’s great to be here.   First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning.  I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Pacific youth to shine from boost to Polyfest
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti has announced the Government’s commitment to the Auckland Secondary Schools Māori and Pacific Islands Cultural Festival, more commonly known as Polyfest. “The Ministry for Pacific Peoples is a longtime supporter of Polyfest and, as it celebrates 49 years in 2024, I’m proud to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • 2024 Ngarimu VC and 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial Scholarships announced
    ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to Breast Cancer Foundation – Insights Conference
    Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Kiwi research soars to International Space Station
    New Zealand has notched up a first with the launch of University of Canterbury research to the International Space Station, Science, Innovation and Technology and Space Minister Judith Collins says. The hardware, developed by Dr Sarah Kessans, is designed to operate autonomously in orbit, allowing scientists on Earth to study ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Planning Institute
    Introduction Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today and I’m sorry I can’t be there in person. Yesterday I started in Wellington for Breakfast TV, spoke to a property conference in Auckland, and finished the day speaking to local government in Christchurch, so it would have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Support for Northland emergency response centre
    The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed.  “Northland has faced a number ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Celebrating 20 years of Whakaata Māori
    New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Some commercial fishery catch limits increased
    Commercial catch limits for some fisheries have been increased following a review showing stocks are healthy and abundant, Ocean and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The changes, along with some other catch limit changes and management settings, begin coming into effect from 1 April 2024. "Regular biannual reviews of fish ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-03-28T14:03:09+00:00