UMR Poll August 2020
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- Date published:
3:36 pm, August 12th, 2020 - 34 comments
Categories: act, class war, Dirty Politics, election 2020, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, nz first, Politics, same old national, the praiseworthy and the pitiful -
Tags: judith collins, labour, national, polls, UMR poll
Yet another rogue poll, this time from UMR, has Labour on 52%, National 28%, Act 5.9%, Greens 5.4% and NZ First steady on 5.1%.
That would give Labour 65 seats, the Greens 7, NZ First 6 and ACT 7, National 35.
I stand by my earlier suggestion that if all 3 Government parties make it back, Labour will be inclined to invite both partners to join them around the cabinet table. That would provide the largest majority under MMP and one of the biggest ever in NZ political history.
Michael Appleton’s poll of polls (RR, CB, RM, UMR) reads as follows:
Polling average: :
Labour – 55%
National – 28%
Greens – 6%
Act – 5%
NZ First – 3%
Parliamentary composition:
Left – 78 seats, Right – 42 seats.
Those seat numbers don’t change significantly whether or not NZF are in or out, due to seat re-distribution.
One bright spot for the Tories in the UMR poll is that Judith Collins is their most popular leader since Bill English, snagging 20% support, only a tiny 41 points behind Jacinda Ardern.
Collin’s apparent response to the poll is a petulant call a few minutes ago for the election to be delayed till November.
Fat chance of that happening.
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Had a text from 22 year old granddaughter re Collins press conference. Her comment "she cannot stand her". The wisdom of youth!
Granddaughter then said Collins made a fool of herself, and was talking rubbish. I complimented g'daughter on her wisdom.
Today's young are better educated than the old and are thus more likely to pick up the BS when its being thrown at them.
DTB. Are you 10 then. Your logic is illogical. Or are you just being smug and not that bright.
[Fixed error in user name]
What's so illogical about better educated people being better at detecting BS?
Today’s young have also been immersed in Social Media from the day they were born, which is hardly conducive to discerning truth.
Or that the experience has refined their BS metre 😛
And there's a difference from when I was at school to school today. When I was at school it was pretty much rote learning whereas today the young are taught more about how to think. A fairly important difference.
If Level 3 goes nationwide, Ardern will not close Parliament, and she will consult parties on delaying the election.
Pathetic is not a strong enough word to describe the Nats press con. Pity this poll wasnt taken after that conference, it would have the Nats below 20. Oh dear, it's hard not to la la laugh.
Let's see: Nats over 20% behind in polls. Collins tries to undermine faith in integrity of election. Brownlee hints broadly at outlandish conspiracy theory. A concerted orchestration of deeply cynical politics? Well, they are interesting facts , and I'm just saying …
NZ First steady of 5.1% says all I need to know about the accuracy of this poll.
3%
It's never about exact numbers in one poll. It's always about the overall picture, across a range of polls.
The pattern is very consistent. National peaked at 38 (Colmar Brunton, when Todd Muller was leader). No poll, from any polling organisation, in any media, has given them more under Judith Collins. Some worse, some much worse.
Which polls would you prefer to cite? Even one?
When reporters start asking whether opposition comments are helpful….. mentioning Brownlee.
below 20% is a possibility.
Collins/Browlee Press Conference a big pity party .
MSM and Collins/Browlee are not calling the shots ,don't let them or take the bait
Shouldn't that read…
Parliamentary composition:
Centre– 78 seats, Centre Right – 42 seats.
Adrian, face it, you're like a nut-allergic, coeliac, legume-intolerant vegan looking for dinner at Carnivore Carl's Cave'o' Dripping Bloody Delights.
After all the salad greens had been recalled because of e.coli contamination.
"Shouldn't that read…
Parliamentary composition:
Centre– 78 seats, Centre Right – 42 seats."
Presses like button.
Or, perhaps:
Centre to centre-right – 78 seats, Radical RightWing 42 seats.
More precisely
That would give
65 seats Centrepiece
7 seats Concentre
6 Eccentric seats
7 Hypocentres
35 Self-centred
😆
That's really on to it PaddyOT
Ardern "We need to act quickly to ensure the virus does not gain ground in the country"
Collins "Me, me, me".
I just hope these numbers hold on till the election. The Right leaning are coming out of the woodwork trying to push people back to National by saying what we are doing in New Zealand does not work and the newest cases prove it. They can only see that it might cause problems to their profits.
I call those people Toryists a combination of the British word Tory and the Word Terrorist. I do not mind having to go in and out of lock down if it saves lives. Lives are more important than money, something a lot of those chasing money have lost sight of.
Let's not get too complacent. If National are polling at 28% and we're all crowing about it, and they come in at 35%, that looks like Plucky-Judith-Staving-Off-Annihilation and she gets to hang about until 2023 for another crack. By which time, she'll be in a much stronger position, with Ardern's epic popularity waning as Covid memories fade and the failures of her government are reckoned.
I certainly agree with your first sentence. Any Labour-Green majority will do for me.
The rest of your comment doesn't stack up, partly because losing leaders don't get to keep their job (the last Nat was Bolger in 1987) but mostly because I think you underestimate how much National MPs dislike Collins. She has been rejected every time, and is only there to take the defeat.
If a win is on the cards in future, there will be many more applicants for the job.
.
A Few Points on the Major Parties in this Latest UMR
Conducted over 6 days from July 29 – Aug 3. Which means it's certainly the most recent sampling … UMR's fieldwork commenced the same day Colmar Brunton's ceased.
(15 days after Collins becomes leader / 9 days after Falloon story breaks / 7 days after ILG resigns / 3 days after devastating Newshub Reid Research Poll released & subsequent backlash from Brownlee)
Nats down 4 points on the previous UMR (late June-early July, when Muller still Leader) … latest Nat rating is the "lowest reading in the UMR series for several years" (Herald).
Nat UMR Trajectory: dipping 3 points in March, then plunging 6 points through April … and since then gently fluctuating around 30% … (last 4 UMRs): Late April: 29%, Late May: 30% , Late June:32% , Late July-Early Aug: 28%.
Down from Jan 39%, Feb 38%, March 35%.
(Darn tootin' !, if they didn't go & change leaders just when they were beginning a mild recovery under Muller ! … up 3 points between April & June … only to take 4 steps back under Judith … when you're down on your luck nothing goes your way)
Joan & Jackie Collins' baby sister is undoubtedly popular with National's base (& ACT's as well) … but not so much with swing voters it seems.
Lab UMR Trajectory: two relatively even spikes … up 7 points in March & then another 6 through April … early 40s (Jan/Feb), … 49% (March), … 55% (Late April) … but trending down (albeit by the gentlest, flimsiest, light as a snowflake-iest of margins) over last 3 consecutive UMRs … 55, 54, 53, 52.
Not surprised that support for a trans-Tasman travel bubble was slipping (46/28 against / compared to 42/32 against in Late June) … but certainly am surprised that a clear plurality (46/32) supported allowing up to 10k International Students to return to NZ subject to 14 days quarantine (up from 39/37 in Late June).
I think the problem is not having students back. It's being able to quarantine them for two weeks. Given the breakouts we've had, it's farcical to think that the universities could do this.
Cripes if Labour has any intellect and discernment they wouldn't go for quantity they would choose quality and bloody get on with the job of setting the country up for the new millenium of which we are now in the Second Decade – no more dragging heels and wishing things away to the future.
The Future is now, Tomorrow has come, and we don't like its face.
Third decade isn't it?
Of course either one or both of Greens/NZF could decide not to join. If a 55-5% L/G election result and Labour offered Greens a poultry number of posts of not much significance, would the G's accept, or would they decide it was better for them, and therefore, as they see it, the country, for them to be outside govt and criticise. I might not think that, but they might.
Paltry, unless they're setting up a Ministry of Chickens.
I would prefer a 51/8% L/G government over a 56/5% L/G-
Having that many MPs (whatever 56% returns) will need a vicelike grip on govt and caucus – there would be trouble there.
Jacinda Ardern is an incredible hands on Prime Minister well done Jacinda