What gains for Nat support “parties”?

Written By: - Date published: 2:34 pm, December 5th, 2011 - 75 comments
Categories: act, election 2011, john banks, national, united future - Tags: ,

Despite all the uninformed blather about a big victory for National, they have to work with minnows to form a government. If, after specials are counted, and as seems likely, the Nats lose a seat to The Greens or NZF, then they need both Peter Dunne and John Banks to govern. (The Maori Party is still consulting and may well stay in opposition this time.) That means that Dunne and Banks have a lot of negotiating power.

Agreements are expected to be signed today, with Ministerial roles expected for both Dunne and Banks.  But it is the details of the policy gains that will tell us the mettle of these two.  Did they achieve anything significant with their negotiating power?  Or did they roll over for some minor window-dressing policies and the baubles of office?  Good luck, UF and ACT voters!  (Better luck for the rest of us, of course, if Banks in particular achieved nothing.)

75 comments on “What gains for Nat support “parties”?”

  1. Peter Dunne will be re-appointed to the positions of Minister of Revenue, Associate Minister of Health, and gains Associate Minister of Conservation.

    Most of United Future’s top policies are addressed in the agreement – having realistic and attainable policies pays off.

    http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/confidence-and-supply-agreement/

    • Tigger 1.1

      WTF? He got some baubles and ‘achieved’ things that National was already going to do (they have never once hinted they’d sell RNZ and there’s no way in hell they would anyway this term). As an Ohariu voter this is now personal for me. Expect any support for asset sales to come down fucking hard on you Dunne – I think we’ll start with picketing your office.

      • Ari 1.1.1

        Picketing it? I say go inside and occupy it until he promises to bring down the government if they sell a single thing. 😛

    • sweeeeeet..so he gets to lick English, Ryall and Wilkinsons bum this time round.

      DUNNE FTW !!!

    • Lanthanide 1.3

      No commitment to passing the income sharing bill, I see.

    • anne 1.4

      He got minister of ‘conversation’ thats all he will do about nz’s conservation problems,does it include having a strong,stable view on what is needed for our rivers,land etc,i doubt it,he will
      tow party line with the mining issue.

    • millsy 1.5

      Is National going to keep our National Parks in public ownership, and not hand them to iwi?

      • NickS 1.5.1

        Just piss off with this anti-Maori bullshit would you?

        The only iwi that has any legitimate claim to a National Park is Tuhoe and that’s because the land was illegally seized from them, and they’ve gone on the record that they only want to work with DoC, instead of being given ownership.

        • millsy 1.5.1.1

          It seems that privatisation is OK for some left wingers on there, when the person getting the goodies is brown….

  2. The UF agreement is an opportunity to address the age of eligibility for Super.

    National’s agreement to public consultation on UnitedFuture’s Flexi-Super policy is a major step towards addressing the future shape of superannuation in New Zealand and putting the issue formally on the political table, UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne said today.

    Flexi-Super would allow New Zealanders to take superannuation at a reduced rate from 60, through to 65 on the current rate, or enhanced each year you wait up until 70. It would be sustainable through making KiwiSaver compulsory.

    http://www.unitedfuture.org.nz/dunne-flexi-super-public-consultation-welcomed/

    A long way to go with it, but this should ensure it is debated more and options are considered.

    • Ari 2.1

      Well, John Key better get to resigning then. 😉

    • felix 2.2

      Flexi-super is all well and good from a personal choice angle, and I don’t think many would have strong disagreement with it in principle.

      But it does nothing to address the problem at hand as it’s fiscally neutral.

      • lefty 2.2.1

        Felix says
        ‘But it does nothing to address the problem at hand as it’s fiscally neutral.’

        There is no problem at hand except in the fevered imagination of neo liberals and those stupid enough to believe them.

  3. dazed & confused 3

    I’ll be interested to see how far down the track the “Flexi-Superannuation” proposal and the government discussion document investigating this issue will be developed.

    I’m in favour of that one if the figures stack up. I wonder will the Maori Party be able to be fobbed off, as they were v. keen on that graduated 60+ idea also

  4. Dunne: gives up asset sales, ACC & welfare reform, family commission cut from 4 to 1 commissioner.

    Gets – his Flexi-Super policy will be talked about and guaranteed access to rivers, lakes, forests and coastline. (beyond current levels? because if that actually flows through that would be a significant loss of property rights for a lot of high-falutin’ National types – most beaches you can’t access are rich white dudes, not Maori stopping you – Foreshore & Seabed Mark II included)

    A new law will also ban guided helicopter hunting on the conservation estate.

    • family commission cut from 4 to 1 commissioner

      Refocussed with gains:
      – new monitoring, evaluation and research functions to drive quality services for families
      – a Families Status Report will be developed to measure how New Zealand families are getting on
      – government will re-direct $4m over four years to fund extra parenting programmes and relationship education in secondary schools

      • Lanthanide 4.1.1

        “- a Families Status Report will be developed to measure how New Zealand families are getting on”

        I hope this includes a gross count of how many Kiwi Mums And Dads got to partake in the Mixed Ownership Model of formerly state-owned enterprises.

        • Pete George 4.1.1.1

          🙂 – might have to check the fine print.

          • ghostwhowalksnz 4.1.1.1.1

            What has that got to do with families ?
            Unless its to be allocated shares in 3-4 persons from one family but actually be paid for by one person who does a quick share transfer days later ?

    • Peter 4.2

      Aerial trophy hunting is the term we all should use for this activity (to use the term suggesed by the New Zealand Conservation Authority). It’s basically where you hop in a helicopter, herd and haze the animal, and then shoot it once its scared and exhausted. Hardly ethical or sporting, and yeah, getting it banned will be welcome. Most conservation and recreation organisations are opposed to this, with the NZ Deerstalkers leading the charge.

      Guided hunting is a bit different, as it involves setting down a hunter and guide, and then stalking the animal in a more traditional way. That is a legitimate activity.

      There is also some confused wording about wanting to ensure equitable access to wilderness areas for guided hunting, which could either mean no aircraft access for aerial trophy hunting into wilderness areas (GOOD), or somehow opening up hunting access (BAD). I need to see more to comment.

      • Uturn 4.2.1

        You can’t ban aerial trophy hunting, it would discriminate against cowards and egotistical spoil sports! And we all know how they squeal the loudest. It’s been viewed as poor form since the Great White Hunter discovered his model T could chase antelope across the African Savannah.

    • NickS 4.3

      The cut from 4 to 1 is so Dunne can remember the name of the commissioners, as his hair is eating up more brain power these days.

  5. Lanthanide 5

    From stuff.co.nz: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/6088040/Banks-Dunne-strike-a-deal-with-National

    The regulatory reform bill, previously advanced by former ACT leader Rodney Hide but still yet to pass, was set to be enacted within a year.

    Legislation would also be set down to cap Government spending. A new bill would be passed within two years that limited expenditure growth to the annual increase in the rate of population growth multiplied by the rate of inflation.

    How would SFC have been handled? Or the CHCH earthquake? What about tax cuts, do they count as ‘spending’?

    • ak 5.1

      Same article, in case it hasn’t sunk in yet: However, National could lose up to two votes when special votes are counted by Saturday, although it is more likely it will lose only one.

      Get the rosary beads out. The closest Maori have come to real power in nearly two centuries. Tina!

      All of us a knife-edge away from relieving untold immiseration and reclaiming our reputation and assets.

      E taku atua…..

      • ianmac 5.1.1

        What would happen if the MP chose to not give supply etc? and the National lost one (or 2) MPs?

        • Lanthanide 5.1.1.1

          At the moment National have 60 seats with 2 votes coming from UF and “ACT” for 62 with a majority requiring 61.

          If they drop to 59, then the status of UF and “ACT” increases and they have stronger bargaining positions, although because they’ve already signed their agreements things probably won’t change much in the short term.

          On 59 with 2 from UF & “ACT”, a single by-election going the wrong way could force the issue to be looked at again.

          On 58, National will require UF, “ACT” and at least 1 other abstention vote from any motions of no confidence or issues of supply (the budget, essentially). They could get this from any party in parliament, but the most likely candidate is the Maori Party. The Maori Party are in a very tight bind at the moment, however, with their electoral margins dropping significantly and having lost 2 seats compared to 2008, presumably as a result of their last agreement with National. But if they go into opposition, they won’t get squat and risk Whanau Ora being dismantled.

          If the Maori Party chose not to abstain on confidence/supply, it would mean that National could not form a government on current votes. This could be an opening for Winston to abstain in return for policy concessions – my pick is his bottom line is no asset sales, just as it was back in 1998 when his last National partnership broke down.

          If neither MP or NZFirst abstain or vote in favour, presumably Labour, The Greens and Mana would prefer a new election rather than propping up National and that’s what we’d get.

          A new election would widely be seen to be the fault of the MP, and they’d likely be punished. Mana would likely pick up more seats at their expense.

          I suspect all of this is why Goff set his step-down date as 13th of December, which is next Tuesday. The final results come out this Saturday, so it’ll give a little bit of time for the dust to settle for the MP to make up their mind which way they’re gonna go, if it comes down to it.

          • felix 5.1.1.1.1

            Alternately in the scenario where National lose 2 seats at the final count, a new election is not necessary if Lab Grn NZ1 Mana and mP can agree to form a govt.

            • Lanthanide 5.1.1.1.1.1

              True, I really should have covered that for completeness. I was mainly addressing the “what happens to National” question.

              I’m not sure that NZFirst and MP could reasonably work together; I think a MP – National agreement is more likely. On the projected numbers, such a government would be as fragile as National’s currently looks and with far more competing voices trying to be heard. I also think the NZ public would reject such an outcome as undemocratic – I think it’d be in Labour and The Green’s interest to go for a new election (if there was sufficient conflict between NZ First and MP to warrant this).

              • felix

                The other difficulty would be between Labour and the mP, or more specifically between Tariana and Labour.

                Not sure what you mean by undemocratic though – multiple parties working together in coalition is what’s meant to happen in an MMP parliament.

                If a majority of representatives can agree to work together (and I’m not saying they could in this case) then their majority is as valid as any other.

                • Lanthanide

                  We’re talking about the same public that voted National back in and think John Keys is a top bloke just like them, remember.

                  • felix

                    Only half of them 😉

                  • Colonial Viper

                    I just read that John Pagani doesn’t think that most voters are being fooled by National.

                    Which seems to imply that John Pagani thinks that John Key is actually just like them.

                    • felix

                      Yeah, well it’s not unusual for people to project their feelings about themselves onto large groups of other people.

    • This is from the Nat-Act agreement itself …
       
      “To this end they agree to legislate within the next two years to provide that core Crown operating spending, excluding finance charges, spending on the unemployment benefit, asset impairments and spending on natural disasters, will be subject to a spending limit. Under this limit expenditure will grow no faster than the annual increase in the rate of population growth multiplied by the rate of inflation.”
       
      This is a Californian type cap that will never work.  Note that DPB, superannuation, and health are not included in the exceptions.
       
      Wow …

      • Lanthanide 5.2.1

        I wonder if “spending on natural disasters” would include ACC or not. Refer recent Christchurch earthquakes.

      • Vicky32 5.2.2

        asset impairments
         

        Does this mean maintenance and repairs, or things like ‘Rena’? I really would like to know…

      • Carol 5.2.3

        So they are expecting a rise in unemployment then?

      • millsy 5.2.4

        We can kiss our health, education and welfare system (along with other public services) goodbye now.

        DHB’s will have no choice but to close hospitals and chop services under this cap.

        This is the end point of Rogernomics and Ruthenasia.

        • Colonial Viper 5.2.4.1

          Its like the voters in this country have no collective memory of nationhood stretching longer than 3 months. Ah well, whatever.

  6. I like the subtle dig at whether one man can be a “party”.
    When I was at university you needed 4 people, music & alcohol to be a party…

    • McFlock 6.1

      Not peter dunne’s parties. He just sat at home alone for a couple of hours after saying how many people would come over to his place because he was so popular popular. He would then mooch over to the neighbour’s party (which actually did have people in it) and be blandly amiable enough that he didn’t get kicked out, even if he didn’t really add anything to the atmosphere.

      The morning after, he would proceed to talk about how successful and nice his party was by helping out the neighbours’, and how he did everything cool at the party (usually by giving the people who actually did XXX “the idea”).
        

  7. fender 7

    And Pete George & Mary gets web based media liason role.

    John Banks misses out on Minister For Small Brains due to being over-qualified.

  8. Frida 8

    Charter schools…it’s started 🙁

    How much damage can be done in 3 years?

  9. Frida 9

    As Key is reported to have said on the tape, ‘we are playing NZ like a guitar’

    Shock Doctrine anyone??

    • Bob Stanforth 9.1

      I hear he also said ‘kill them all’. I’d be really afraid.

      No really, it was on the interweb, its be true!!

      Making up shit for effect anyone?

      • felix 9.1.1

        Well Bob, we’ll all know as soon as either

        a) Parliament sits and Winston gets an itch, or

        b) The media accept their role as the fourth estate and report what our politicians say about us behind our backs.

        Whichever comes first. (Probably Winston).

        • Lanthanide 9.1.1.1

          And just watch the media fall over themselves to prove how moral they are by not reporting Winston’s comments.

          How long does it take for the hansard transcript to be published? There’s always youtube too, I guess.

      • Frida 9.1.2

        Tell us what he said then Bob and why he was so panicked about us hearing it that he let his smiling mask slip and showed us Bully Boy for a few days?

        Meantime here’s what (so far) is rumoured to be on the tape:

        Playing NZ like a guitar
        I’m getting unbridled power
        NZ First supporters are dying off
        Brash is a strange fellow, let’s roll him and install Catherine Isaac as leader

        Yep, makes him sound like a lovely bloke alright.

    • anne 9.2

      Also,on
      They are like goats,easily led
      intelligence level pre-chimpanzee
      so there wont be any problems there
      its all under control.

      That by a person that heard it.

  10. Rodel 10

    Banks! Associate minister for Education..that’s unbelievable ..To think that fool that nobody really wanted to vote for has any…ANY! influence on the education of my children and grandchildren
    just beggars belief.. John Key if you had any credibility ..it’s gone..

    Please god. don’t tell me it’s Tolley and Banks in charge of New Zealand’s education…

  11. TW 11

    United Future’s agreement with National achieves nothing

    – National have never indicated they will sell RNZ.

    – it says it will lock in current RNZ and TVNZ funding – current RNZ funding is not enough for it to even keep doing what it does now. The current TVNZ funding does not include funding for TVNZ7, which will still close – as far as I know there is no funding to TVNZ that is being preserved.

    Pathetic.

    • fender 11.1

      It’s vital National put a stop to Backbenches, Media7, The Court Report and the other quality programs on TVNZ7 in their efforts to dumb down the population.

      • Lanthanide 11.1.1

        These are some of the lesser publicised losses thanks to National’s election win.

      • anne 11.1.2

        TV7 is now included in sky’s basic package,so maybe this is why $600 grand was given to sky from nz on air,in the lead up to the election,also national changed the charter of tvnz under urgency,so questions need to be asked there,the election still not decided and sky are to announce their deal with tvnz about igloo a new business model for tvnz and sky,shonkey deals all round.

      • Anne 11.1.3

        It’s vital National put a stop to Backbenches, Media7, The Court Report and the other quality programs on TVNZ7 in their efforts to dumb down the population.

        As Key said to Banks:

        I’m playing the country like a guitar.

  12. Tom Gould 12

    It has taken the lazy, craven, Tory MSM only a few days to revert to form now they have delivered their boy back in power. Headline says ‘PM shrugs off forecast’ which is code for ‘relax folks, our boy has it all under control.’ Pathetic. Buckle yourselves in for another 3 years of the MSM John Key publicity machine. Together, they might actually crack that 50 percent target next time.

    • mik e 12.1

      Not if we can help it using modern tech we can make documentaries go viral on the net. Just shear numbers of people involved we can set up a news network keep people informed most people i talk to are sick of mainstream Television full stop there is no satirical or comedy of any quality.MSM had not one political satire show leading into the election can we do some ourselves .
      YES WE can
      Mocumentries you tube

  13. millsy 13

    Well folks, its time to get off our asses and march in the streets.

  14. millsy 14

    Would love for John Banks to walk into the local hospital and explain to the patients why they should have to go without treatment.

  15. tsmithfield 15

    I wouldn’t get too optimistic about National dropping two seats.

    If advance votes are a proxy for special votes (i.e. those who care enough about voting to make a special effort) then National did better in the advance votes than they did in the general vote.

    • Lanthanide 15.1

      You know that a lot of special votes come in from overseas, right, where The Greens typically do quite well because they actually run expatriate voting campaigns?

  16. NickS 16

    Charter Schools – oh joy, now we get even more child indoctrination centres

    Spending Cap – brainless and disconnected from reality

    Hunting Council – Stupid anti-1080 bullshit will soon have another governmental home and conservation in forest parks will be further fucked. I look forward to the skeletonised trees, higher erosion and bare understories caused by too many deer, which I may just have to get a bow and go a slaughtering by way through the Canterbury High Country with. Drinking delicious hunter tears from all the online whining from the aftermath.

    Giving Banks Education duties – worse than Ann Tolly he shall be.

    On his other ministerial positions – Ye gads, small businesses are fucked, and the RMA is about to get further stuffed over by an idiot who can’t think his way out of a paper bag, let alone grok the precautionary principle.

    • millsy 16.1

      I thought our schools were already charter schools in a sense? They enjoy autonomy that public schools in places like the US and Britain dont?

      • Frida 16.1.1

        Less about the degree of autonomy and more about the funding. That’s what I was reacting too. See discussion on other thread

    • RedLogix 16.2

      Stupid anti-1080 bullshit will soon have another governmental home and conservation in forest parks will be further fucked.

      I’m surrounded by anti-1080 fuckwits at work. They all admit that doing nothing about introduced species is not an option, but then in the same breath refuse the need for DOC funding to be increased for any other method other than 1080.

  17. felix 17

    And the gloves have come off. The Nats can finally advance their hard-right agenda.

    Public health, public education, and social welfare are next up for privatisation.

  18. Mark 18

    Just had some lols by re-reading the old posts on here asserting Charles Chauvel was well ahead in Ohariu. So much wishful thinking!

    Obviously very little understanding of MMP in this crowd – people should be applauding Dunne for being there to counteract Banks and to pull National closer to the centre. But this is really more about personalities, isn’t it?

    The left lost and will still have lost after the specials…

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