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What if Gilmore quits?

Written By: - Date published: 2:25 pm, May 8th, 2013 - 105 comments
Categories: accountability, john key, leadership, national, national/act government, slippery - Tags:

Stuff is reporting that John Key is signalling for Aaron Gilmore to stand down.

Prime Minister John Key says he can’t “reconcile” Aaron Gilmore’s text messages with his version of events of a boozy diner and has signalled he should stand down.

He contacted party president Peter Goodfellow this morning.

He can’t sack Gilmore from Parliament. But the move is a strong signal to Gilmore to step down.

“I find them difficult to reconcile with the version of events that Mr Gilmore gave my office … I said at the time if I found it difficult to reconcile those events I’ll treat this as a serious matter.”

This morning the National Party was shown text messages from Gilmore that appear to contradict assurances he gave Key.

What are Gilmore’s options?

He can try to tough it out and stay.

He can possibly stay as an independent like Brendon Horan, although this may require Key to remove him from the National caucus.

Or he can quit parliament.

The next on National Party’s list look to be Paul Foster-Bell Claudette Hauiti.*

Key won’t want any period of uncertainty that threatens his government’s thin majority.

What are the implications of Key’s latest statement?

[update]

Claudette Hauiti, in a 3 News article from August 2011, on her being a newby on National’s list, headlines her as: Lesbian, Maori, ex-Labour.   Moving a little beyond the sensationalist, stereotyping headline, we learn …. little:

Ms Hauiti says “I’m not made up of one particular thing, I’m made up of many things….my iwitanga…I’m also an urban Maori, I’m also a business woman…I’m also a mother and all those things help build a very strong character for the National Party”.

“I’ve had an excellent run to become the candidate for Mangere. I’ve had exceptional support,” she says.

National is struggling to shake its reputation as a boys’ club with only 16 of its 57 MPs being female.

We learn more from Express Online:

After I got my degree in journalism, I worked at TVNZ and they made me a political reporter. I’ve always had a background in politics and current affairs. I was also the producer of Eye To Eye with Willie Jackson, but all the programming I do has some political slant to it, whether it be subtle or not too subtle.

Although I’m considered socially liberal, economically I’m quite conservative and that has been because of my family background. My father has always been economically independent and insisted upon being independent of state funding. Having said that, we had always been Labour supporters and under the Labour party we got our first state house, but my parents worked very hard to buy it. I was brought up on the ethic of self-determination and self-reliance.

Hauiti was the 2011 National candidate for Mangere.

105 comments on “What if Gilmore quits? ”

  1. Jeeves 1

    Foster-Bell is already on his way in. Claudette Hauiti is next.

  2. quartz 2

    Paul Foster Bell is back in. He’s got Jackie Blue’s seat. It’s likely to be Claudette Hauiti.

  3. Pete 3

    I posted this in the other thread, but it’s more appropriate here:

    I wonder if Gilmore will go feral, stay on in Parliament and vote against the budget out of spite. Would that mean the Nats would have to court Brendan Horan? If the stars align, the government could fall over this if they fail to get confidence and supply.

    • Enough is Enough 3.1

      I don’t think we want the government to fall right now. The polls are still too close for my liking.

      By Xmas we will be light years ahead though. Can we drag this out until then….

      • Gosman 3.1.1

        Yeah the economic figures are all going the left’s way. Oh wait a moment….

    • Nick 3.2

      Budget won’t fail because the Maori Party are bound to vote for it by the C&S agreement

    • Lanthanide 3.3

      “Would that mean the Nats would have to court Brendan Horan? If the stars align, the government could fall over this if they fail to get confidence and supply.”

      SIGH.

      Everyone here keeps forgetting, the Maori Party have signed a Confidence and Supply agreement with National. That means they vote for the budget. Even without Gilmour’s vote, National still have 63 votes in favour of their budget.

      • Te Reo Putake 3.3.1

        True, Lanth. But, if the Maori Party felt the need to break the C&S arrangement in order to give themselves any hope of being in the next Parliament, now would be a good time, aye?

        A snap election forced by the MP could restore some of the mana they have lost (so to speak). They could take the moral highground, say they’ve lost confidence in Key and his bumbling administration and its time to put it to the people etc.

        In those circumstances, Tariana might reconsider her retirement. Or she could waddle off knowing she’s helped end the career of two PM’s and vastly improved the lives of maori.

        Ok, just kidding about the vastly improved bit, it’s just her immediate family that’s done well out of her time in parliament. But given that she has no loyalty to speak of, why wouldn’t she stab Key as royally as she did HC?

        • Lanthanide 3.3.1.1

          Historically snap elections and those that force them have been punished.

          The MP might be a little more of a special case, but the other side of the coin is why did they sign a C&S agreement in the first place if they weren’t going to honor it. Gilmour going rogue, or Banks being kicked out, would just smack of opportunism by the MP as they haven’t signaled any particular unhappiness about the government, aside them always voting against their legislation – Sharples keeps bleating on about “being at the table” as well.

          Also a snap election at this stage is unlikely to favour the opposition, so again not necessarily a great tactic for the MP to follow if they want to be part left government in the near future.

      • gobsmacked 3.3.2

        Lanth is right. The govt majority on the budget is not threatened.

        Be careful what we wish for. Key might be quite happy to call a snap election saying “Aaron Gilmore is MMP’s fault! Give me a majority!”. We would then be relying on David Shearer to persuasively articulate the case for a Labour-led multi-party gov’t being more stable. That’s a roll of the dice, at best.

        • freedom 3.3.2.1

          Labour might be wise to consider that even with National gone, they may not be leading the next Government of NZ. Many many people understand that National and Labour were both first time Governments once and after 38 PMs playing progressively chaotic table tennis with our country, a lot of people are thinking a change of tacticians might be just what is needed.

    • Mary 3.4

      Yes, let’s hope Gilmore goes feral. The only trouble is that the Nats’ bully boys will try very hard to force him out of parliament from behind the scenes. Gilmore does have a bit to hang on to, though. There is a little wriggle-room in those text messages for him to say that he didn’t lie to Key. He did of course, but we want Aaron to stay! Go Aaron! Stand up to that Keys guy!

      • paul andersen 3.4.1

        yes, I think aaron should stay on and wear a bright blue jacket with a large N on it as proof of what we have as a ruling -elite-.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 3.4.1.1

          If he really wants to make a statement he will wear a suit with the letter N cut out with scissors. The hollow party and all that 🙂

  4. National will still have Peter Dunne and John Banks to rely on. Is there not time for Claudette Hauiti to become acquainted with the basics of Parliament before the Budget?

  5. Winston Smith 5

    What are the implications of Key’s latest statement?

    -Parliament and the National party will be improved.

  6. One Anonymous Knucklehead 6

    Love the way the Stuff headline: “PM turns on Gilmore” makes Key sound untrustworthy: Slippery hasn’t got your back, Aaron.

  7. It is fascinating watching National eating its young …

    • Tim 7.1

      I was having that very thought MS just as I was watching Soimun Brudjiss in QT.
      I bet he’s no longer Aaron’s very best friend now

    • tinfoilhat 7.2

      I was just thinking how similar they were to the Labour party.

  8. Blue 8

    Why would he “have his back” ? Gilmore acted like an A grade arsehole, let down his party and needs to leave. Its a two way street in politics.

    • Mary 8.1

      No, it’s a multi-way street in politics.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 8.2

      Sorry, you appear to have missed the point of my comment, which is that the lying Prime Minister can no longer expect the media to cast him in a kindly light.

      • paul andersen 8.2.1

        thats definitley the biggest change. now only trogladites like osullivan are boosting for key, the rest have pretty much had there eyes opened.

  9. Ad 9

    This, plus the rest, gives a good rotting out-they-go stench to this Government.

    Popcorn is heating up.

    • Mary 9.1

      The popcorn will go cold very quickly if Gilmore leaves parliament. It will be extremely boring of Gilmore if that’s what he does. I know he’s probably in many respects pretty boring already but that doesn’t mean he needs to continue to to be boring. Come on Aaron, this is your chance.

  10. King Kong 10

    Nice to see you kind hearted lefties baying to see someones life destroyed.

    If Helen Kelly and her union were representing Gilmore she would have exploded by now at his treatment.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 10.1

      Do you think his life is going to be destroyed? He has all the skills necessary to become an investment banker or tax exile.

      • Tim 10.1.1

        …. or some other kind of pimp

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 10.1.1.1

          I’m not sure he has the cunning or knowledge of the less edifying aspects of human nature to make a successful pimp.

          • Clockie 10.1.1.1.1

            That’s a mighty fine double act you guys have got going there.. 🙂

            • Colonial Viper 10.1.1.1.1.1

              Well, that’s not pimping, that’s acting of another nature…

      • tricledrown 10.1.2

        primitive primate what Slippery is saying Aaron your not even in my league when it comes to lying, we want a more professional class of liar like me .
        When I lie I get away with it every time !
        For even trying to imitate my leadership your a goner!

    • So KK what aspect of Gilmore’s treatment do you think it is unfair?

      I don’t see anyone baying. All I see is a level of bemusement and amusement as National kneecaps itself.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 10.2.1

        I will miss him. As the wide mouthed frog said, “You don’t see many of those, do you?”

      • King Kong 10.2.2

        Lets be fair, this issue is no using of slave labour (field) fiddling expenses then sabotaging your leader (carter) or even cracking one off on the taxpayer (jones).

        He got pissed and acted like a bit of a cock. The subsequent heat has become the story and now he has lost his job.

        That is politics I guess. All I was pointing out was the irony of how much glee there was around here at the prospect of a Dad of two losing his income.

        • Clockie 10.2.2.1

          Wellll…. He has bragged about having done well enough that he never needs to work again. I don’t think anyone is going to starve here.. Also of course, being a parliamentarian should never be regarded as a “job”. It is ideally something that people expect to do for a part of their working life because they believe in what they are doing and as a service to the country. Of course I’m talking ideals here and they’re in short supply among pollys. Also if you “act like a bit of a cock” when the leader of your party has bragged about setting higher standards I think you can expect to get the old heave-ho don’t you, really??

          Also, you chaps are always telling us that there is plenty of work out there for those who want to do if you’re not a lazy bludger who’s fussy about what you’re prepared to do.

          From what is freely available in the public domain it appears that the man is a braggart, a bully, and a big noting liar. This is who he is, not a temporary fall from grace while pissed.

          • King Kong 10.2.2.1.1

            I am glad that you are so certain that he can be written off as someone who deserves all he gets off the back of a week of sensationalised media articles.

            The left, ladies and gentleman. The moral guardians of caring.

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 10.2.2.1.1.1

              Stop being so precious, Precious. Oh, and point out where someone has written him off. Clockie, who you replied to, describes his fall from grace as “temporary”. Are you experiencing cognitive dissonance again much, sweety?

              • Clockie

                Ah-hem, well actually, I pretty much did “write him off”. Based on what the man writes about himself and what others are reported to have said about him, it seems plain to me and I suspect many others that he is not someone you’d want as a landlord or a boss. Personally I wouldn’t want him as my brother in law, my rubbish collector or my MP either thanks.

                • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                  Ok, well I guess you’ll just have to suffer KK’s accusations 😆

                  • Clockie

                    Willingly :). This is about chickens deservedly coming home to roost. Most of us who have been wage slaves and tenants at some time in our lives have been on the receiving end of the crap handed out by the Aaron Gilmore’s of this world and yes, by golly-gosh, it is rather nice to see them come a cropper occasionally.

        • fender 10.2.2.2

          You sure are a strange animal KK, just this morning you claimed Gilmore was a ‘sex criminal’.

          Now you are concerned for the financial future of someone who has boasted that investments he has made mean he never needs to work again.

          • King Kong 10.2.2.2.1

            Don’t for one second think I give a toss about Gilmore. Just pointing out that you can call us Torys sociopaths but you lefties like to watch someone being mauled in public as much as the next man.

            • fender 10.2.2.2.1.1

              Nothing wrong with celebrating the fact that an incompetent wanker gets kicked out of a position he should never have been placed into in the first place.

              If National had a robust list selection process this fool wouldn’t be anywhere near parliament, it’s not a place for monkeys despite appearances.

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 10.2.2.2.1.2

              Schadenfraude is a necessary part of politics, especially as a setback for the National Party might just result in a decrease in infant mortality rates.

            • Clockie 10.2.2.2.1.3

              Ape. So you don’t give a toss about him either, but we are sociopaths…

              Considering how much hard-arsed muck you fling around about other people on your periodic visits to this site, I think it’s just a little rich for you to be taking the high moral tone with us now, don’t you think? (That was a rhetorical question) No, you don’t think.

            • emergency mike 10.2.2.2.1.4

              “…you lefties like to watch someone being mauled in public as much as the next man.”

              Oh ya it’s so weird how our hippy-love dries up when it comes to egotistical, arrogant, lying, born-to-rule bullies who are getting a 6 figure salary from the state to be our democratic ‘representatives’.

        • Kevin Welsh 10.2.2.3

          “All I was pointing out was the irony of how much glee there was around here at the prospect of a Dad of two losing his income.”

          Really KK?

          I think the glee is more about the fuckwit who threatened to have someone else’s employment terminated, is about to have his terminated.

          • Clockie 10.2.2.3.1

            Kevin Walsh +1. This is where much of my own feeling about this lovely man comes from.

        • Populuxe1 10.2.2.4

          You mean, like Darren Hughes?

        • tricledrown 10.2.2.5

          king kong you are asking us to believe your bs.Gilmore is last on the list so will be vert unlikely to be re elected any way!
          Wasn’t it Mattspew hootten that said he should go instantly!

    • Te Reo Putake 10.3

      “If Helen Kelly and her union were representing Gilmore she would have exploded by now at his treatment.”

      Rubbish. Any advocate with HK’s smarts would have told him to fess up completely and openly and not try to wriggle out of it. The incident would have already been yesterdays news if he had been properly advised. His difficulty is that he appears to have used John Key as his union rep, following the path laid down by the PM over the last five years: a BS, bluster, forgetfullness and ‘so what?’ attitude have worked for Key. It’s just that Gilmore isn’t half as good at it as his boss.

      The guts of it isn’t that Gilmore is getting his marching orders for being a pompous git one drunken Saturday night, it’s for dragging Key into the frame by behaving just like him in the cover up.

    • Colonial Viper 10.4

      If Helen Kelly and her union were representing Gilmore she would have exploded by now at his treatment.

      Trust all these right wing layabouts who want the benefits of union protection without actually joining a union.

      • King Kong 10.4.1

        Who mentioned benefits. The only way that Aaron Gilmore could become a more hated figure is to have Helen Kelly represent him.
        Just ask that Aussie actors union and the maritime union.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 10.4.1.1

          Do you think he’s “hated”? I think he’s just made an egg of himself and I hope learned one or two valuable lessons: drinking with lawyers has its costs and learn to apologise well.

          PS: and always front foot your mistakes.

    • paul andersen 10.5

      I dont want aaron destroyed. I want him to remain as a glorious example of keys asperational society, an example of the free market and unrestain excess and what the feral, sorry free market, throws up.

    • QoT 10.6

      So … you missed the hilarious bit in his self-penned CV where he brags about never having to work again, I take it.

      • Colonial Viper 10.6.1

        Won’t anyone think of the children? Private school fees are a human right!

  11. Mary 11

    I think Key’s being very clever. He’s calling on Gilmore to quit so that he stays credible dealing with an incredible situation, but he doesn’t want Gilmore to quit because of the numbers. So he says he wants Gilmore to quit but that he can’t force him to and that sacking him is a long, drawn out process and that it might be better to just wait until the next election because Gilmore’s number 59 with no portfolio responsibilities so it’ll be easier and cheaper for everyone. That’s the strategy I see coming from Key. The headline reads: “Key turns on Gilmore”, but that’s not quite right. Key wants the public to think this, but wants Gilmore to stay. What a slime:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8644577/Key-hints-at-Gilmore-to-quit

    If I were Gilmore I wouldn’t be bullied like this. Key’s treating Gilmore with absolute disdain, not by saying he wants to sack him, but by saying this but in reality wanting him to stay on to prop his shonky government up. In these circumstances if I were Gilmore I’d quit the National party and fuck Key over as an independent.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1

      Think of all the connections you could make in that time, if you were Aaron Gilmore 🙂

      • Mary 11.1.1

        Well, Brendan Horan might be one, but that’s not the point. The point is that Aaron Gilmore is an MP with lots to offer and no matter what John Key and others say Aaron is going to stand up to his principles and do the job he was elected…I mean…put in the job to do. It just so happens, and it’s a pity, that he’ll just have to fuck Key and his mates over in the process.

      • tricledrown 11.1.2

        Aaron Gilmore new job talk back host with Michael Laws!

    • karol 11.2

      It keeps Gilmore in the headlines, instead of the appalling up-coming Spy Law amendments.

      • mickysavage 11.2.1

        It also obliterates coverage of Shearer’s speech.

        Funny thing but Goff got a bounce in the polls when he dumped Carter, Shearer got one when he dumped Cunliffe and maybe Key is planning on the same thing. It appears that some kiwis like it when their leaders beat up on elected representatives.

        • karol 11.2.1.1

          It also gives cover to the 105 jobs lost at Solid energy, and the possible low prices of MRP shares.

          Cunliffe was on fire aout Labour’s power policy in the General Debate today.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.2.1.2

          Nope. Key has utterly wimped out. “I don’t think we will move to expel him from the caucus…”

          All the damage, none of the benefits 🙂

  12. Ant 12

    LOL that lawyer dude must count as one of the worst mates ever.

    This dude obviously wanted to cause some ruckus haha.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 12.1

      Yeah, I can see why he contacted the hotel, but who told the media?

    • Clockie 12.2

      Ant. He told the truth. You wouldn’t understand.

      • Ant 12.2.1

        Please, as if a barman would take a pissed twit saying “John Key will fire you!” seriously.

        The two bros obviously have some beef, we get to see it happening in public.

        • Populuxe1 12.2.1.1

          Presumably said beef was being wrongfully dragged in to Happy’s Fubar and the possible implications that would have on his legal career. That sort of thing tends to piss lawyers off.

        • freedom 12.2.1.2

          “Please, as if a barman would take a pissed twit saying “John Key will fire you!” seriously.”

          hmmm
          imagine you are a barman at a Heritage Hotel, a preferred supplier of the Nats piss ups, where National have just held a conference. An MP of that party is berating you and you think you would not be worried for your job ?

          Ant, you obviously know shit about how hospo works in NZ

          • Ant 12.2.1.2.1

            LOL I know how hospo works and I’d be pretty sure John Key or his office don’t bother ringing up to get people fired from their jobs when you refuse to serve an intoxicated party. Anyone with a modicum of common sense would think it was a laughable threat.

            I mean John Key is a c*nt, but I think he prefers to destroy 1000’s of peoples jobs in one fell swoop not one at a time.

            • freedom 12.2.1.2.1.1

              it’s hard for PM to lean on a barman but dropdead simple to lean on Heritage a bit

            • Colonial Viper 12.2.1.2.1.2

              Nah, you’re a dickhead and you know shit.

              Plenty of hospos have had final written warnings or been fired due to customer complaints.

              But yes there are plenty of rich dickheads out there who think that mistreating service workers and threatening peoples jobs is ‘laughable”.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 12.2.2

        Who contacted the media? If it was Riches he did considerably more than tell the truth. Gilmore is the architect of his own misfortune but, if I can expand the metaphor, he employed a pretty good builder.

        • Colonial Viper 12.2.2.1

          There be poets amongst the Standardistas!

          • Arfamo 12.2.2.1.1

            If you think that our poets are good
            They cannot match those in the ‘hood
            Where Aaron spouted dickhead’s verse
            And things just went from bad to worse
            If he thought John Key was his muse
            Too bad, now he’s beneath Key’s shoes

  13. QoT 13

    My father has always been economically independent and insisted upon being independent of state funding. Having said that, we had always been Labour supporters and under the Labour party we got our first state house, but my parents worked very hard to buy it

    Oh good, a true bootstraps-myth hypocrite, then.

    • McFlock 13.1

      Taking the “cognitive” out of “cognitive dissonance”.

    • karol 13.2

      Yep Depressing. No doubt Key would love having her in his caucus to support his own bootstraps myth – and as a tokenistic rep of the kind of women his government tends to marginalise.

  14. Anne 14

    Campbell Live had a poll should Aaron Gilmore resign?

    91% said yes.

    I can just picture them sitting on their couches lounge suites… ” ya know, that was a terrible thing to do embarrassing the prime minister like that and he believed him. That’s really bad. Let’s text our votes…”

    Umm, what about the waiter?… “waiter. what waiter? Oh, I dunno about him. It’s John Key we feel sorry for…”

  15. jaymam 15

    I shall be looking forward to putting up election billboards with a picture of almost anyone, with the text “Do you know who I am?”

    • mac1 15.1

      I think there should be a post asking for ‘born-to-rule prat’ stories. There seems to be a few in behind people’s comments on the Gilmore saga, and/or stories about the abuse of workers by members of the public.

      Jaymam’s comment immediately brings one to mind, for me.

  16. vto 16

    Hauiti sounds like another dopey confused tory who doesn’t even realise that the things they think are great are pretty much all of a typical collectivist social base. The classic example is Fonterra. And now here we have Hauiti extolling the virtues of the left. Yet she is a fully fledged right wing nutbar.

    They are like another species.

    Somebody should patent their dna and forwrad sell it to museums.

  17. Tanz 18

    see, how the list system is a rort? Unchosen by the voters and can’t be rid of by the voters either. Key must be spitting chips. The guy is going to ride it out till next year, maybe. All that money…

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