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advantage - Date published:
7:29 am, November 16th, 2023 - 12 comments
Categories: Deep stuff, International, israel, Palestine, Peace, Politics, Russia, uk politics, Ukraine, uncategorized, war -
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We are further away from peace in parts of the world than a decade ago. But pessimism about peace isn’t a foregone conclusion.
Since there appear so many apparently intractable international conflicts occurring now, it is worth reminding ourselves of what successful peace processes have occurred in the last 30 years. All are specific to their own internal context, but they really have worked.
It is surely amazing that Israel has managed to wilfully repeat the folly where the United States and NATO allies occupied Afghanistan for 20 years, by occupying Gaza and expecting a different result. Same for Russia in the Ukraine and its own experience in Afghanistan.
But there is no fate but what we make.
Where has durable peace been achieved with good process in the last few decades?
South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation process
This peace process was created to investigate gross human rights violations that were perpetrated during the apartheid regime from 1960 to 1994.
These included abductions, racist laws, killings, and torture. Its mandate covered violation by both state and liberation movements and allowed the commission to hold special hearings focused on specific sectors, institutions, and individuals. It granted amnesty to perpetrators who confessed their crimes truthfully and completely to the commission.
The TRC took the testimony of about 21,000 victims with 2,000 appearing in person in public hearings. There were 7,112 amnesty applications, and refused in 5,392 cases.
It didn’t have the remit to try to reverse a couple of centuries of extreme wealth inequality, but it did a sound job giving years for the wronged to have their day, point the finger, and allow the guilty to confess.
It started in 1995 and was wrapped up in 2002. Further historic crimes are no longer pursued.
Northern Ireland Good Friday Peace Accord
Some point to the origin of this accord as the Armalite and Ballot Box initiative by Sinn Fenn deep in the early 1980s, in response to the election of Bobby Sands to Westminster in 1981. Then came the Anglo-Irish Accord signed by Ireland and Britain in 1985. Then came a further set of hard won discussions and agreements: the Downing Street declaration of 1993, the Framework Documents of 1995, leading to the Propositions of Heads of Agreement in 1995.
Notably all of these multi-year efforts were not just exchanges of drafts between elite negotiators, but were also the result of community initiatives often street-by-street and parish-by-parish within the overall peace process effort that contributed to its longevity and overall success. For this context peace is made both from top-down representation and deep and thorough social preparation bottom-up and middle-out.
And now for the kicker: as of September this year, historic crimes stemming from The Troubles are explicitly no longer pursued.
The Northern Ireland Troubles (Legacy and Reconciliation) Act became law on September 18th this year. It calls for setting a commission to deal with the hundreds of killings that remain unresolved to this day, and offer conditional amnesty to those who cooperate with the commissions’ investigations.
A dividend of sustained peace is the greatly improved relationship between the United Kingdom and Ireland, where it is now a critical trade gateway to the European Union following BREXIT. But again for much of the worst, further historic crimes are not being pursued.
Waitangi Tribunal Processes
It is more usual to conceive of the Waitangi Tribunal processes as one of numerous examples of treaties and negotiated agreements mediated between indigenous peoples and states or settlers, and New Zealand’s Treaty of Waitangi tribunal processes are one of the best known. But it is also a process that reconciles the effects of major internal war towards reconciliation and peace. For a summary of what it does, see here.
It was set up in 1975 and continues. The results of its work have been powerful not only for the redress provided to Maori, but also to its deep and abiding impact upon the entire public service, armed forces and NZ Police.
While its modern form came into strong focus after a claim by Taranaki Te Atiawa Maori following the destruction of coastal fishing grounds by the Motunui urea plant in 1983, it evolved in the 1990s into a vast process by which each tribe has been able to hold the state to account for war crimes from a massive civil war dating back over a century.
There is no specific end date to its work, but almost all historic grievances have been completed.
Peace Processes
There is a full colour-chart of kinds of monitored and enforced peace existing in the world today. We only hear of the failures because they are in the news. Peace is otherwise boring. But there will be a peace process to most of them. It was not until the mid-1970s that the term “peace process” became widely used. In Israel’s case the phrase stuck, and as one author noted the phrase “… has been synonymous with the gradual, step-by-step approach to resolving one of the world’ most difficult conflicts. In the years since 1967 the emphasis in Washington has shifted from the spelling out of the ingredients of “peace” to the “process” of getting there … The United States has provided both a sense of direction and a mechanism. That, as its best is what the peace process has been about. At worst, it has been little more than a slogan used to mask the marking of time.”
There have been multiple peace treaties with Israel that have worked well including the 1949 armistice agreements, the Geneva Conference of 1973, the Camp David Accords of 1978, and the Egypt-Israel peace treaty of 1979 when eventually Israel handed back the whole of the Sinai. History says peace agreements are possible and can work, albeit imperfectly. Check out Peace Now if you want some practical encouragement.
And a peaceful future is possible for Ukraine too. Just last week, the European Union endorsed making Ukraine a full member of the EU.
In a whopper 1,200 page report released last week on future enlargement of the 27-member bloc, the EU said it’s ready for formal talks once further work is done by the Ukraine on corruption, adopting a law on lobbying in line with EU standards, and strengthening national minority safeguards. They also put Georgia into candidate status which is a step to accession that will piss off Russia no end but is a very hopeful moment.
There is no inevitability to pessimism about peace. There will be processes that get around both the Ukraine and Israel wars. They will likely work if they follow the successful precedents.
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“I received a lengthy missive from the Human Rights Commission yesterday. Don't know how widespread this email may be, but amongst the topics mentioned is the Israel/Palestine fracas. The following recommendations is worthy of discussion:
Here are some ideas.
Read the full opinion piece here.
"Press for the release of all hostages"
The outlaw Israeli regime has tens of thousands of hostages in its prisons.
Given that the total prison population in Israel is 16,000 – this seems to be demonstrably untrue.
https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/israel
These are current (to August 23) numbers.
You might find it interesting to compare the incarceration figures for countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Yemen or UAE. Of course, their figures are only estimates – since in many cases they don't report up to date data – giving figures which are years, or even over a decade, old.
https://www.prisonstudies.org/map/middle-east
It's not that bad.
Indeed not – especially compared to the situation in the surrounding countries – where there effectively is no rule of law.
OK, 5,200 Palestinian prisoners is out of date – hardly surprising given recent events.
Still not that bad.
It's a ‘fluid’ situation – perhaps someone has more up-to-date numbers?
Don’t you mean the outlaw Palestinian Hamas regime?
There is no doubt that the Israeli government has done some shitty things, but if we compare the Israelis to the Palestinian Hamas regime in Gaza, the Palestinian Hamas regime are by far way worse.
The Palestinian Hamas actions are on a par with ISIS, and the German Nazi regime, ie they are evil, possibly way beyond evil if that’s possible.
No matter how much you dislike the
filthy money grubbing sub human Jew that should have been wiped out by the fun loving NazisIsraeli state, they are far better in regards to fundamental human rights than any other country in the Middle East.I do understand that this does conflict with some people’s ideology, but in Israel Muslim Palestinian Israeli citizens have the same rights as the Jewish Israeli citizens, they work together and live in the same communities. I have friends who live there, and I have visited them in Israel. At one family gathering I met a Jewish teenage boy who was dating a Muslim teenage girl related to my friends. The reaction to a “mixed” relationship like this is pretty much the same as here in New Zealand. Some people hate it, some don’t care and some think it great. Maybe it’s a sign of the times, especially with younger generations.
I suspect underlying all the increased conflict(s) is the competition for declining resources.
And that is a problem that is only going to increase….pessimism or no.
I think the key to any successful peace process requires a willingness to compromise on both sides. And hence the problem in both the Ukraine conflict with Russia, and the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
In the Ukraine Russia conflict compromise is very difficult to find, especially since Russia annexed large amounts of Ukranian territory, making compromise nigh on impossible. And, in the Israel Hamas conflict, where it appears that the only thing that will satisfy Hamas is the total elimination or ejection of the Israelis (from the river to the sea etc) then compromise again is very difficult to find.
I have felt that something like the truth and reconciliation process that has happened in both South Africa and Northern Ireland may be the only way forward for the Israelis and Palestinians.
It is 2023, millions of Jewish people and millions of Palestinian people live within Israel, Gaza & the West Bank. They were mostly born there and have no other country to go to.
The clock cannot be turned back in time to change what was done in the past. Therefore we can only look to towards the future.
For many, many reasons, I have a lot of support for the Jewish communities around the world, & also Israel, even though some Israelis should certainly be held to account for war crimes, along with many Palestinians.
I just wish for peace on all sides, and that they can all live together peacefully.
Thie is an incredibly beautiful part of the world, and the different people I’ve met are all wonderful and hospitable. It’s just the politics, cultural, religious beliefs, along with the history that has caused them to hate each other.
No justice no peace, no peace no justice.
It is hard to do justice by war, but where there is injustice there is hardly any peace.
No the folly was continuing to occupy the WB, after withdrawing from Gaza.
And doing so after fostering the development of Hamas in Gaza (associated with MB in Egypt), a group opposed to there being an Israeli state.
It could be posed as an experiment in manipulation – would Gaza peacefully co-exist with Israel or develop the capacity to war on Israel.
If the latter the world was supposed to note that an independent area would be at war with Israel and allow a de facto annexation of the WB.
Hamas chose the war option if they had chosen otherwise they could have been a template for withdrawal from the WB.
In 2017 (after the UNSC vote in Dec 2016) Egypt (post MB rule in Egypt and aware of the trap Israel had designed) pressured Hamas to accept a Palestinian state on 1967 borders – Hamas did so, but only as an interim step to a unitary state and so long as the interim arrangement included right of return for refugees.
There is a path to peace, maybe more than one.
It is the military defeat of Hamas, the presence of a peacekeeping force to oversee the rebuild (without any tunnels), the restoration of civil society in Gaza and its participation in nationwide Palestinian elections. During this period the UN has control of the land, air and sea territory and has water and power supply contracts with Israel.
The PA takes over control of the territory while peace process negotiations with Israel continue. Gaza Palestine becomes a member state of the UN, without prejudice to its claim to the 67 border WB.