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Will National agree to make Peters PM?

Written By: - Date published: 7:10 am, June 6th, 2016 - 120 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, winston peters - Tags:

Stuff reports:

If you think that’s a stretch (and Peters has run with conspiracy theories on less), here’s another theory that’s been doing the rounds much longer.

It is that Peters will only retire after he has fulfilled his ambition of one day being prime minister. It’s even said to have been put on the able in NZ First’s protracted negotiations to form a government in 1996.

Election night 2017 might be now or never for Peters, given he will be 72 by the time the next election rolls around.

Which is why the Labour-Greens cooperation agreement announced this week might be the game changer everyone is talking about, but not in the way they think.

Because it may bring Peters’ dream within his grasp.

Let’s say the election delivers a result of National 41%, Labour 33%, Greens 15%, NZ First 11%.

NZ First holds the balance of power. Peters demands to be made PM. The Greens say no, so Labour couldn’t do it even if they wanted to (which they wouldn’t). But National are desperate to cling to power. Key gets shipped out to Hawaii and bang you have Winston as PM.


For those with too much sense to read dirty politics blogs, this little thought experiment is the inverse of Farrar’s stirring.

120 comments on “Will National agree to make Peters PM? ”

  1. Pat 1

    “Let’s say the election delivers a result of National 41%, Labour 33%, Greens 15%, NZ First 11%.

    NZ First holds the balance of power.”

    Lets not…..how about, lets say L/G make a good fist of campaigning under MoU and the electorate give them the numbers they need.

    • weka 1.1

      +1000

      The only way that Peters gets to be PM* is by old school, macho, domination system politics. L/G are offering an alternative to that, where we have honesty, integrity, co-operation, and working together for the good of all NZers rather than the ego-driven ambitions of one powermonger or a bunch of neoliberal robber barons.

      *assuming that is even possible constitutionally and politically.

      If the CT machine, Farrar etc are now going to push hard on this line about Peters, we should see it for what it is: yet another manipulation of the electorate and political process in NZ. I think we have to be very careful on the left to not give this too much energy. By all means critique the proposal, but coming out of the GP conference, the big sea change happening on the left, Little and Shaw’s good strong speeches and rallying cries, is this what we really want to focus on?

      • Macro 1.1.1

        ^ This

        Especially this:

        By all means critique the proposal, but coming out of the GP conference, the big sea change happening on the left, Little and Shaw’s good strong speeches and rallying cries, is this what we really want to focus on?

    • Karen 1.2

      I agree, Pat.
      Labour and the Greens need to continue campaigning together, and hopefully they get enough support to govern alone. If not, then NZF may be required on confidence and supply, which is what Peters would prefer I think. Whatever he wants I see little point in discussing what he will or will not do.

      According the the Herald this morning nobody even mentioned Peter’s name at the Green Party conference. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=11651056

      “Winston Peters’ name was not uttered once at the AGM. It appears the party is focused on ensuring it does not have to rely on Peters and is dealing with the things it can control.
      Winston Peters’ name was not uttered once at the AGM. It appears the party is focused on ensuring it does not have to rely on Peters and is dealing with the things it can control.”

      • Pat 1.2.1

        thats good to hear…the little coverage of it i have seen it appears to have gone well….long may it continue.

    • whateva next? 1.3

      ……but let’s be prepared for the above, crikey, did the world think Trump would come within a breath of becoming President of America? and now it’s getting really scary, so I am all for preparing for the above scenario in advance.

      It’s entirely possible, given Winston’s putting ego and ambition over the good of the country, and National have no one else when Key flounces off to Hawaii

      • Pat 1.3.1

        lol….Winston would argue long and loud his primary concern IS the good of the country and not Winston….who knows, maybe it is…..but as discussed below with bwaghorn, all this serves no beneficial purpose for L/G and has disasterous negative potential

        • whateva next? 1.3.1.1

          If Winston put the good of the country above himself, he would stand with the opposition, not play games, as we know he so enjoys.

  2. Tory 2

    But I thought the Labour Greens MOU was to prevent this? More like National get 45% and a deal will be cut with NZF, Peters will get DPM. Do I like that?, No.

    • b waghorn 2.1

      It says” thought experiment ” in the title , you should try it some time. Thinking that is !

      • DavidC 2.1.1

        There is thinking and then there is dreaming. Maybe its called Blue Sky Thinking by some. Not letting tedious reality get in the way of the thoughts.

  3. Kiwiri 3

    Winston has been recently polling much higher for preferred PM than Andrew Little.

    Just about a fortnight ago, Winston polled 12.1 percent while Andrew was on 8.9 percent: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11643893

    • ianmac 3.1

      Of course Winston is far better known than newcomer Andrew. Face recognition?

      • Kiwiri 3.1.1

        that may be the case but consider Winston’s staunch face (cf. Andrew’s blurry one) on policies all through on TPP, superannuation, immigration control, etc

        • AmaKiwi 3.1.1.1

          Winston is a clever old dog. For example, he understands when the Nats lose it will be because the voters are pissed off with them, NOT because the opposition offers more lollies.

          Elections are attack contests, not lolly scrambles. After repeated defeats Labour still hasn’t figured out this basic political principle.

          Example: Robertson: “If elected, we promise to screw you over with a higher taxes.” “Wow! I can’t wait.”

          Compare that to Winston today: “We’ll require immigrant interviews and cut immigrant numbers which will keep out strangers who demean women and also lower AKL house prices.”

          • red-blooded 3.1.1.1.1

            Hey, let’s remember the first MMP election; Winston argued vociferously that the only way to dump the Nats was to vote NZF. He based his whole campaign on this, then betrayed his voters by cutting a deal with them (arguing that this was a different government, so he’d succeeded in unseating the past one – which would have been unseated whatever the outcome of the election, because that’s how an electoral cycle works).

            The man’s a dog turd.

            • Chooky 3.1.1.1.1.1

              no one hates Peters more than a jonkey Nact right winger

            • Expat 3.1.1.1.1.2

              There are people who remember Peters promises and his betrayal, those with a reasonable memory bear that in mind at every election.

              • Colonial Viper

                exactly the same for Labour.

              • Chooky

                @ Expat…maybe you were out of the country?…I suggest you watch the Helen Clark documentary for the reasons why Winston Peters NZF did not go with Labour and went with National

                ( it is very tiresome to have to continually counter the disinformation on this)

                …Labour and NZF did not have the numbers for a stable government without Jim Anderton New Labour and he refused to join

                …Peters was faced with being the reason for another General Election almost immediately after the last ( probably a disaster for NZF)

                ….or joining with National to try and form a workable government with the bottom line of no more sale of State assets…and trying to get though as many of NZF policies as possible

                ….no sooner had NZF joined with National then the State Assets sales continued and Winston true to his word immediately pulled the plug and another Election was called ( in the event it was still a disaster for NZF and probably one not to be repeated)

                …simply the Nacts hate him more than anybody and will continually try to frame him and do as much damage to his reputation as possible ( eg Owen Glenn ‘scandal’) even if this means saying he will join the nacts to spoil it for the Left

                • Fair comment… in fact there was speculation whether Peters and Bolger could work together as Bolger had sacked Peters before…but they got along well enough .

                  But there was friction between Peters and Ruth Richardson because of her strict adherence to far right neo liberal economic’s. ( BTW … both R. Richardson and Roger Douglas were board members of the Mont Pelerin society ) .

                  Then came Jenny Shipley who rolled Bolger in a bloodless coup and the dispute over the Wellington airport and its privatization. It was at this point Peters walked and went back to the opposition.

                  It was a difficult time for Peters… damned if he did, damned if he didn’t.

                  Basically he seems to despise neo liberal economics ( or at least the excesses thereof… ) and prefer Keynesian style economics. NZ politics has been fractured and dominated by both National and Labour’s neo liberals… it may just be a time of that dominance coming to an end… whichever way it goes…

                  I would prefer him to go Labour / Green… we should see as time goes on.

          • Chooky 3.1.1.1.2

            +100 AmaKiwi

      • maninthemiddle 3.1.2

        In June 2007 (about the same time period to the 2008 GE as the present time) John Key was polling 35% as preferred PM. Little’s ratings are woeful. I’m predicting a lift for National, Greens and NZF, with even further decline for Labour.

        • DS 3.1.2.1

          Some of us can recall Helen Clark’s ratings as Opposition leader.

          (Really, preferred PM ratings are meaningless, since we don’t vote for a PM but for a party. Preferred PM was introduced to stoke Rob Muldoon’s ego).

          • maninthemiddle 3.1.2.1.1

            When people vote for a party they do so based at least partly on that party’s leadership. Little is less popular than Cunliffe, Shearer or Goff, and Goff and Cunliffe were eviscerated by Key.

  4. Jenny Kirk 4

    That’s the stuff of nightmares, rOb ….. we gotta do betta than that.

  5. mary_a 5

    Don’t think so somehow. FJK will want to hold on to power for as long as he possibly can, to fulfill his designated job of breaking NZ’s working class and dispossessed, making it a place for the landed gentry, creating a master/serf feudal system! Might seem a little way out, but the direction NZ is heading at present, it’s well on the cards of becoming a reality. That’s if Kiwis continue to sit back and allow FJK and Co to continue along their merry way!

    However, what could be on the agenda is for NatzKEY to offer Winston Peters a knighthood to get him onside, something Winnie being Winnie, would not decline!

  6. BM 6

    NZ First was pretty much dead until the brains trust on the left thought it would be a great idea to hand him Northland.

    Thanks lefties.

    • dv 6.1

      Who was that Northland NAT mp who had to resign BM?
      That was the start!!!!

    • Bearded Git 6.2

      Very much self-inflicted BM. But nobody but Peters could have carried Northland off.
      Remember how scathing Key was about his chances? An example of Key’s supposedly brilliant political antennae being completely wrong. The housing crisis is another.

      Key’s scathing remarks about Peters and Northland, and the way Key shifted heaven and earth to get rid of Peters from parliament in 2008, will mean Peters will go with the Labour/Green block, possibly even as deputy PM.

      • DavidC 6.2.1

        Bearded Git.
        If Winnie was deputy, where would that leave Shaw Turei etc? because there aint now way he would share that spotlight!

        • WILD KATIPO 6.2.1.1

          Hmmm…Peters was quite good as Treasurer ( under Bolger ) and Foreign Affairs ( under Clarke I think it was …) … in fact paradoxically… he could be Minister of Foreign Affairs and Immigration at the same time….!

          Now wouldn’t that be a real arsekicking position to hold !

          L0L !

          But seriously – there are other positions that Peters could hold besides DPM that would give him and NZ First a real stake in a Labour/ Greens / NZ First govt.

          I’ve always liked Peters – hes made a few blunders ,for sure… but Id like to see the Labour / Greens with NZ First on board , a center/center left combination. At least to stabilize the Left and provide a framework to ensure we don’t have the sort of abuses of democracy as we have been having under a govt like the current one raise its ugly head yet again any time soon – or ever !

    • reason 6.3

      Banks & Keys cup of tea you confused bullshitter …………

      What a useless troll.

    • ropata 6.4

      They won 11 seats in 2014 BM, not exactly dead

    • mikesh 6.5

      The left didn’t hand him Northland. He won it fair and square against all comers.

      • OneTrack 6.5.1

        Yeah. Right. Little threw the Northland branch campaign under the bus just so the left could “get” one over John Key.

        • Macro 6.5.1.1

          So just think what might happen in Ohariu then…. OMG The Dunny down the dunny! Oh and there goes NAct majority!

  7. Cowboy 7

    I don’t see this as a credible scenario. The Nats will never cede the PMship to Winston. Labour on the other hand could do worse. He is in the eyes of the public the most popular opposition leader and the tide is coming in behind him from both disaffected Nat and Labour voters.

    • b waghorn 7.1

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/80761652/interview-every-migrant-into-nz-says-winston-peters

      Na labour should cut him loose now , he’s going to go down the dtrumpf route to the next election, put out to pasture.

      • Pat 7.1.1

        L/G need to do nothing about Peters….why make unnecessary trouble for yourselves? Winston can continue his usual line of agreeing to nothing till after the vote and L/G can continue to be unconcerned by that……dont know why its so vital to keep shooting themselves in the foot?

        • b waghorn 7.1.1.1

          Let’s say that 5% of peters support would not vote for him if they knew his only option was to go with national, they would come back to labour.
          His politics we don’t need and we certainly don’t need shame jones . (spelling mistake is meant)

          • Pat 7.1.1.1.1

            would do far more harm than good and gives the Nats and the media endless opportunity to trip L/G up…..why bother? Winston will get whatever support he gets and when the time comes if a deal needs to be done, deal with it then.

            • b waghorn 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Ever play rugby?
              If you go into make a tackle with anything less than full commitment two things happen,
              1 you get hurt
              2 you miss your target.

              Be brave labour, chuck him the bone of reductions in immigration numbers for confidence and supply.

              • Pat

                played a wee bit…..and learned pretty quick that you win more games using the top two inches

              • ropata

                Election campaigns are more like a bizarre reality TV show where everyone cheats and bullshits, than the gentlemanly and civilised game of Rugby Union

  8. Stephen D 8

    To get rid of the current National coalition, why wouldn’t the left do the deal with Winston?

    • b waghorn 8.1

      Because it would be far better to have a labour/green government with maybe a Maori party mp or two.

      • WILD KATIPO 8.1.1

        Would the Maori party either a) come on over or b) be compatible after bolstering up National so unashamedly after all this time though ?

        • b waghorn 8.1.1.1

          As far as I’m aware their policy has always been to be inside the tent if possible
          If it took two Maori MPs to get a labour green government I’d be a OK with that.

  9. Kiwiri 9

    Ok, on the topic of kingmakers on Queen’s Birthday, how about this for jesters.

    Key wants his fourth term but can’t be bovvered hanging around for long.

    So he takes the first year of the fourth term, has Winston run the second year, and then a manufactured coup gets launched with Paula leading the charge by doing a (de ja vu) shipley while Key has effed away quite conveniently on so-called holiday in Hawaii.

    Winston gets all outraged (again, sigh) and gets NZF well-positioned (again, yay) for 2017. So he gets to throw stones at Nats while pissing in the tent with one foot in it, and pissing out of the tent with another foot outside (no mean feat/feet*, obviously).

    *edit: thanks, dv 🙂

    • dv 9.1

      (no mean feat, obviously).

      no mean feet, obviously

      Spelling corrected.

      • Kiwiri 9.1.1

        the order was quite deliberate but some might prefer something closer to the original formulation:

        “… while pissing in the tent with one foot outside, and pissing out of the tent with another foot inside …”

    • Cowboy 9.2

      Paula Bennett is not even remotely credible PM material.

    • whateva next? 9.3

      perfectly possible, unless the people stop thinking of him as “a loveable rogue”, he is the reason MMP has remained FPP in disguise, and why we have the greediest, self serving people governing us.It’s all a big joke to Winston.

  10. Bearded Git 10

    No. Not a snowball’s chance in hell.

    The Nats might offer to make him deputy PM. My hope is that Little is smart enough to offer this.

    • Chooky 10.1

      My hope is the Left coalition agrees to make him PM…he runs rings around all the other potential candidates for PM ( including Little who is only there because caucus dumped on Cunliffe the member’s choice)…and NZF is to the Left of the Labour Party

      …lets face it Labour and the Greens probably won’t be able to do without NZF in the mix to defeat jonkey nact

      the Post is framing the question the wrong way around

      the Real Question …will the Left coalition offer Winston the job of PM ?!

      Peters proved himself with Helen Clark’s Labour Government …even before Little and Shaw entered Parliament

  11. Ad 11

    Doesn’t sound as bad as the current government.
    He’d get more Cabinet places than that, and some major policy gains as well.
    I’d prefer a Labour-Green government, but the Peters/NZF/National one would be a good improvement on now.

    • Bearded Git 11.1

      I’m assuming you forgot to put the (sarc) tab in there Ad.

      • Ad 11.1.1

        Look, I really like the Labour-Greens alliance. Don’t get me wrong.

        But after 9 years, I find it harder to imagine a really strong and different government. The state is so much weaker than in 2008, the economy so much more brittle and hollow, the entrenchment of the lowest 70% so much worse. Even if political paradise broke out tomorrow, the political economy will take at least two terms to just recover. We have no Trudeaus anywhere (Trudeaux?).

        So, since it’s an imaginative exercise, I find it very helpful to keep my trajectory of hope pretty low. I can imagine National agreeing to Winston as PM, and that it would be better than it is now.

        After the last three elections, I think that low tractory of hope is an entirely reasonable position.

    • Graeme 11.2

      And history shows that the National Party would go for it. PM could be a bit far but cabinet and DPM would be almost certain. The fanatical aversion of the National Party membership to a Labour / left government would blind them to the consequences and ensure that outcome. I doubt it would last as long as the the last one from 1996 though, the handbrake of Peters on the National caucus would cause a lot more instability in the current lot than happened with the Shipley coup. Maybe this explosion would be enough to split the National Party in a similar way to Labour split following Rogernomics. This could be a very good thing. Could also make for a very entertaining 2018 with a change of government shortly after.

      History also shows Labour, Greens and NZF cooperating to run a stable government. That government was defeated at the next election but that wasn’t due to any obvious tension between parties. External events and third termitis dealt to that.

      It’s a pity Hooten took iPredict down, the books on Winston for PM and the consequences would have been good fun, and probably very predictive.

  12. AB 12

    How long would a Peters-Nat deal last? Because I don’t see much ideological common ground between them.
    There is some in that they oppose what they would both describe as ‘political correctness’. An objectively meaningless phrase, but opposition to it does contain a few tendencies such as:
    – a dislike of identity politics – anything that acknowledges Maori, women, LBGT etc.
    – a hard line on crime and punishment.
    – a happiness with polluting sunset industries (coal, deep-sea oil drilling). The Nats because it potentially enriches local cronies and donors, Peters because of regional employment.
    But in the core areas of the economy, taxation, privatisation of state assets, housing, health, education, then not so much. And it seems to me that Winston has a passion for fairness – which is why the Winebox made him so angry – and that does not fit with National at all.

    Lab/Green should quietly position itself where it maximises alignment with Winston but without compromising its principles. And then avoid being strident about points of difference.

    • Cowboy 12.1

      I view Labour and NZ First as pretty close on economic policy, much closer than with National. The issue for Labour, and especially Greens, is if the can stomach the hard line on immigration and conservative line on social issues that Winston espouses. I think it will come down to How many dead rats can Little convince the Greens to swallow.

    • Olwyn 12.2

      I largely agree with this AB. When Winston did align himself with National, Jim Bolger was the leader and Ruth Richardson was either sacked or about to be sacked as finance minister. So it looked as if between them Jim and Winnie could move National closer to where Winnie thought it should be. When Bolger was rolled, Shipley installed, and asset sales put back on the agenda, Winnie broke ranks. This suggests it would have to be a very changed National party for Winnie to accept the role of PM in exchange for his support, and if he was duped (Key gone and English temporarily installed to get him onside) he would break ranks again if they didn’t keep their side of the bargain. And they must surely know this. Whatever Winnie is or is not, he has never been a mere careerist, willing to put up with anything in exchange for baubles. People like to say that he is only in it for the baubles, but so far his actions speak otherwise.

    • greywarshark 12.3

      AB
      I like that last sentence. May the force be with them to attend to it.

      Lab/Green should quietly position itself where it maximises alignment with Winston but without compromising its principles. And then avoid being strident about points of difference.

  13. Richardrawshark 13

    Winston as PM, nah, as National in your scenario would have more votes and be the kingmaker, remember they have to forma deal, to stay in power with another party as PM would be a step to far for Nationals born to rule members.

    This is also fantasy stuff.

    Why are we even trying to predict results at this stage, there’s a lot of time between then and now and we all know how political landscapes change.

    What I have seen of Winston lately puts me off him, to much I told you so’s, he’s starting to believe his own hype. Typical of Nats frankly.

    He’s the pain in the arse cousin that comes to every family event and just pisses everyone off. In any government he joins he’ll just cause trouble.

  14. Bill 14

    Yesterday trending story about immigrants just reinforced my opinion that Winston’s a wanker. It was a deliberate gazumping of any reporting from the Greens conference and, as I read it, a petulant ‘shot across the bows’ of any Labour/Green desire to offer up some concerted or co-ordinated leftish leaning opposition to the government.

    That the media ran with such an ‘old hat’ piece of bullshit didn’t exactly endear me to major outlets either mind.

    Would WInston go with National? I’ve never quite understood how people can convince themselves otherwise – of course he would, if it suited his personal agenda.

    • weka 14.1

      Pretty much. I think he’s still trying to figure out what he can do to hold into power. His immigration bullshit was both scene stealing, but also a way of smudging over the fact that he’s been offered a way to change the govt and he doesn’t want NZ to know that he doesn’t want that. The only thing he wants is power. Yes, he has done some good things at times, and NZF has some good policies, but those are secondary to what the man himself wants.

      • Cowboy 14.1.1

        Therein lies your problem Weka. Winston believes that stuff and so do the people who back him. Immigration at these levels is clearly creating problems in housing and infrastructure and is a legitimate conversation to have. Winston is merely reinforcing his bottom lines for all to see so as not to scare potential Nat defectors.You may not like it but that is the reality for the left when you can’t command 50% of the vote.

        • Chooky 14.1.1.1

          +100 Cowboy

        • mauī 14.1.1.2

          There’s something not right about his immigration approach too. Like who would make people salute the flag and also assume immigrants have to be taught how to respect women. There’s a weird authoritarian thing going on.

      • mikesh 14.1.2

        “The only thing he wants is power.”

        If he considers himself the best man for the job, and I think he does, then he should push for it. In fact it’s damned duty to do so.

  15. Stuart Munro 15

    In theory there’s an outside chance of Winston leading National – it is chiefly their voters he picks up, and they are consistently underperforming so badly even our supine yes-media are beginning to poke holes in the Gnat Economic Pretense (Mind the gep).

    When the collapse sets in, and political disillusionment tends to proceed catastrophically once it’s underway, only early and significant action can change its course. The Gnats have spent eight years proving beyond any doubt that there is no talent behind the Key facade. Winston would be streets ahead of any of the other contenders, literally an infinitely better leader.

    So of course the incumbent lifeless corrupting slugs of flesh would not have a bar of him – they look even darker by his light. NZ’s pretense of democracy has reached the point where it selects the least fit to lead.

  16. Eralc 16

    Prime Minister will be too much like hard work for the wily Winnie. He’ll be after Minister of Foreign Affairs, or a plum overseas posting. Anything that involves travel up front, the finest in beverage and food (in that order), and the glamour lifestyle. PM won’t cut it.

  17. cogito 17

    My ha’penny’s worth….

    A new position as Senior Statesman should be created for Winston in a future NZF/Lab/Green govt.

    As Senior Statesman, Winston would have responsibility for eg Foreign Affairs, Defence, Security/Intelligence, Immigration and Strategic Direction.
    (This position of Senior Statesman could possibly be a precursor to that of a future President if/when NZ becomes a republic).

    Under the Senior Statesman there would be two co-First Ministers, eg Andrew Little and Metiria Turei who would share other key portfolios….

  18. ianmac 18

    Andrew Geddis on Pundit has an opinion on the likelihood of Winston PM. He calls it the Farten Hypothesis.
    http://www.pundit.co.nz/content/in-which-universe-will-winston-peters-become-pm/

    • Stuart Munro 18.1

      The real test will be the degree of the Gnat collapse – if they stay above 40% they would not dream of having Winston as PM. As they fall below 35% they’ll look seriously at it but deny it vehemently. At 30% they’ll float the idea cautiously, kicking the tires so to speak, and at 20% they’ll bow down as his chariot passes and assert that he was their natural and inevitable leader all along.

      • FlashinthePan 18.1.1

        Oh for fecks sake. I’m as left as left goes but this is just silly. The Nats will get well over 40 and close to 45. Anything else and you’re just dreaming. Lab/Greens must defeat them in spite of this. NZ First will be vital.

        • Cowboy 18.1.1.1

          Totally agree. In the absence of an economic or political shock there is no way Nats vote will collapse. Point being it doesn’t have to. If it falls below 45% then all bets are off. Problem for left is that majority of disaffected voters moving to NZ1st. Only when Labour/green demonstrate they can grow their own vote can they be considered a viable govt in waiting.

        • Stuart Munro 18.1.1.2

          Hey – it’s a counterfactual – like Key promising he’d’ve made wild passionate love to the gorilla.

          It is consistently stated that incumbents lose elections. Nothing is going right for the Gnats except the polls – and even the polls are softening. Key’s jig is about up. When they go it will be an avalanche – there’s certainly nothing of substance to keep them up.

    • Andrew Geddis gets it right- give it up, yous ones 🙂

    • Rodel 18.3

      Can’t wait for the Hooten -Slater hypothesis..about as valid as Helen Clark’s description of Brownlee’s usefulness.

      • Chooky 18.3.1

        Hooton has always advocated NZF going with Nactional ….just as he has advocated the Greens going with Nactional

  19. Katipo 19

    I wonder how well a 5 headed Nact-UF-Maori-1st hydra can row ?

    • Graeme 19.1

      There will still be vestiges of the Round Table there so they’ll be paddling something like a coracle, and they’ll all be right handed

    • b waghorn 19.2

      I can’t see Winston going into government with uf or the Maori party , a nzf/nat gov would be the death of those parties.

  20. Colonial Viper 20

    Peters doesn’t want to be PM any more.

    It would require too many hours, too much responsibility, too much hard work.

    Also, there is a better than even chance that NZF is going to poll higher than the Greens in 2017.

    Greens 11% or 12%; NZF 12% or 13%. LAB 25% +/-3%.

    • Cowboy 20.1

      One real danger for Labour is if gap between Nats and Lab/green doesn’t close there could be a late wave of tactical defections from soft labour voters to NZ 1st in order to strengthen Winstons hand in negotiations with Key.

      • b waghorn 20.1.1

        Yep I know two possible labour voters thinking that way.

        • Colonial Viper 20.1.1.1

          This was also what happened in 2014 when polls made it clear that Cunliffe could not get Labour over the line. Labour electorate candidate voters defected to NZF for the party vote in droves.

    • Gristle 20.2

      The thought experiment is examining:
      1. The ability of a traditional top tier party accepting a junior party to hold the PM position.
      IMO National could not accept the position, the expectations of some of the contenders could not be parked. Whereas for Labour, IMO Labour is off the top shelf but still getting good positioning and should be willing to deal. The broad church is gone but now there is a broad church of opposition parties. Labour has to stop thinking that it can call the shots on the formation. IMO offering Winston top job, but only for the third year, would keep him in the tent.

      2. That the electoral vote count returning a situation that allows it to develop.
      How arethe electoral analysts being splitting this one up? Right now there is manipulation to create an overhang to move the total MPs over 120. Is this overhang going to be necessary to make a winning National Gvt for 2017? Remember the allocation of Labour list MPs is exceedingly short. Can you get some transfer of Party Vote to Greens from Labour. Don’t tell me that tradional working class Labour voters will not vote Green, because you wouldn’t ask them to, you would have a more targeted approach of people for whom GP/LP poses less problems.

      3. The desire of Winston to be the PM. Some say yes, some say no. Me, there appears no credible evidence on this issue.

      • Colonial Viper 20.2.1

        I don’t think the National Party caucus nor board would accept Peters as PM. They certainly will not accept Peters controlling caucus rankings and Cabinet portfolio assignments.

        And without those things PM Peters is merely a figurehead.

        So that brings that part of the thought experiment to one conclusion.

        As for offering Winston the PM’s job for just the third year. I presume you are informing the electorate of this deal when it is struck. The arrangement will have the effect of hamstringing the first PM as a lame duck PM from the outset.

    • Chooky 20.3

      @ CV …has Peters said he doesn’t want to be PM?( or are you just saying this?)

      “It would require too many hours, too much responsibility, too much hard work.”…( are you just saying this too?)…he has never shirked from work or responsibility or hours before

      • Colonial Viper 20.3.1

        Hi Chooky, to be clear this is just my opinion, and also what I have heard second and third hand.

        • Chooky 20.3.1.1

          thanx…i will be voting for him and hoping that he will become PM…he deserves it!….and he is head and shoulders in ability and experience and international knowledge above the other candidates eg Little

          ….imo ..he has suffered a lot of covert racism in his political career…it is time an indigenous Maori took the helm as PM

          NZF is to the Left of the Labour Party on a number of issues eg TPP, anti spying on NZers, Kiwibank

  21. Doogs 21

    How about –
    NZF – 12%
    Greens – 15%
    Labour – 38%
    Nactzis – 35%
    Forget UF and Maori, they just won’t exist.
    So Winnie will go with the Nats? Not likely
    What the final make-up will look like is anybody’s guess, but with figures like this Winnie won’t be able negotiate anything comfortable for himself.

    This is a scenario I would love to see.

    • Colonial Viper 21.1

      Less than a one in ten chance Labour will get over 30%. Getting over 35%…basically zero chance there, for all intents and purposes.

      Most likely result IMO is between 22% and 28%.

      • Stuart Munro 21.1.1

        Labour have been there before in recent memory. Labour getting high forties is not statistically unlikely the way their getting high seventies would be. Likewise the Gnats under Bill were under 30% – and on performance they should be scraping to reach that. I’d say Labour getting in the 30-35 band is about 50-50, and if they manage it the trend could easily take them up to test forty. But the momentum is hard to build against a corrosive msm narrative – very hard indeed if Key’s government were not demonstrably failing at everything it touches like some coprophiliac inversion of the Midas touch.

        • Colonial Viper 21.1.1.1

          OK, however I stand by my estimate that Labour getting over 30% on election day is fairly improbable. Over 35%: effectively zero probability.

          IMO for Labour to have any chance of getting 35% on election day it would need to be polling 40% by the end of the year.

  22. Incognito 22

    I think there’s many things wrong with the premise as put by Tracy Watkins in that Stuff report.

    But hey, let’s play along with these numbers of this thought experiment, putting aside, for the moment, the utter crap that Winston has been proudly spouting about immigrants.

    On these numbers the GP would arguably hold as much the balance of power as NZF.

    Since Winston has always strongly advocated equal rights for all New Zealanders and what’s best for all of New Zealand I struggle to see how him becoming PM, even temporarily, would constitute a coalition deal that would necessarily achieve any of this; it would reek too much like an ego trip and a blatant power grab for the sake of it (AKA the baubles of office) and it would all be a wee bit too transparent IMO. I don’t think Winston is into selfies, ‘candid’ interviews with women’s magazines, and cringey appearances on radio or TV shows. But hey, I could be completely misreading the man.

    • mikesh 22.1

      “it would reek too much like an ego trip and a blatant power grab for the sake of it (AKA the baubles of office)”

      Nothing wrong with him believing himself to be the best man for the job and, therefore, going for it. And, of course, he may be right.

  23. Incognito 23

    His latest comments on immigrants make Sir Winston sound like a colonial zealot; perhaps he’s been watching too much of the US Primaries and wants to build a New Zealand wall around Auckland Airport to keep the undesirables out.

    Does he distinguish between the various groups of immigrants such as returning Kiwis, international students, any other, or are they all ‘aliens’ that could potentially threaten our peaceful existence in New Zealand or infect our much-treasured culture and environment?

    Wannabe immigrants should respect the Law. Nothing profoundly new there and pretty much common sense. Consequently, and consistently, I assume that all law-breaking New Zealanders will be expelled forthwith (to Oz?); that’ll fix the Auckland housing crisis.

    They should have to salute the flag. Interesting jingoist jibe especially since we have just had major referendum on our flag.

    They should not treat women as cattle. Given that to some cultures cattle is literally a family’s or a tribe’s livelihood this is a clever but dubious statement. Of course, Sir Winston means those men (!) that treat women as their property, without any respect, as inferior and thus very badly and often violently.

    Wannabe immigrants should be interviewed to exclude those with undesirable attitudes towards women (and only to women?). So, Johnny K. from England, an ‘enthusiastic’ supporter of soccer, better have his lines prepared on how well he treats or treated his (ex) girlfriends, especially after a good night out with his mates. We don’t need more Domestic Violence in New Zealand, or any violence and crime for that matter, is the not so subtle sub-text. I highly recommend posters in Hotels and Youth Hostels and most certainly in Pubs & Bars to remind guest & visitors of their obligations to respect women and other people in general. Punishment will be immediate forcible expulsion.

    During the ‘interview’ they could also check for filthy habits such as smoking, which puts a large future burden on our health system, or attitudes that don’t align with Sir Winston’s. In addition, a mandatory driving test and an IELTS score of 8 or higher are necessary requirements to be allowed in.

    But the icing on the cake is of course that wannabe immigrants should sign up to our beliefs and this country’s values. Obviously, New Zealand is not a tolerant pluralistic and compassionate society that welcomes people of all walks & talks. Sir Winston knows better and in a stroke of supremacy decrees that our values and beliefs are the gold-standard. Obviously, there are many Kiwis who would (like to) agree with him.

    I think that Mr Peters walks a dangerous line and anybody who argues that he’s a (conservative) centrist is grossly mistaken. Peters feeds off a nasty undercurrent that is present in many people and society at large and his demagogic speeches and political rhetoric may wake up ‘dogs’ that are better left fast asleep.

    [PS if this is considered OT please move to OM]

    • Chooky 23.1

      load of cobblers

    • Obviously, New Zealand is not a tolerant pluralistic and compassionate society that welcomes people of all walks & talks.

      Well, I’m a New Zealander and I don’t feel either tolerant or compassionate towards communists, fascists or any kind of religion enthusiasts, certainly wouldn’t welcome them as immigrants, and I’m not alone. So, yes, obviously.

    • Jenny Kirk 23.3

      “Peters feeds off a nasty undercurrent that is present in many people and society at large” – this is a fascinating analysis, Incognito and could well have some reality in it . It was, afterall, the sort of stuff that Colin Craig was also churning up.

      My difficulty with Peters is : why isn’t he just straightforward and come out and say whether he’s interested in a coalition with Labour Greens, or not. He likes playing politics, but in the end, in makes him untrustworthy.

      • Colonial Viper 23.3.1

        why doesn’t Labour come forward with what they are offering to Peters in a coalition deal then?

  24. M. Gray 24

    John keys party feeds of a nasty undercurrent its called ‘greed’ and everyman for himself, sad thing is how many NZers voted for him knowing last time they were in power they caused huge social/economic gaps between Maori and PI despite this many NZers still continue to vote for them . Maybe some NZers have amnesia either that or they don’t care.

    • Colonial Viper 24.1

      that so many NZers voted for National is as much the fault of the Opposition parties as it is the credit of National’s canny political management.

  25. fisiani 25

    Why would NZ not want to continue a clearly successful government? There is no obvious mood for change in the population at large. John Key’s popularity is still stellar. I cannot see National getting as low as 45% nor Labour above 30%. Peters may not even be alive by election 2017 given his current health issues. I can understand the fanciful dreams. Do not despair. John Key will of course retire one day, perhaps 2025.
    If Labour is still around their leader then will probably be up against Chris Bishop.

  26. You all talk about Winston as if he is the only NF member.Have you all forgot the other nameless silent deadheads who make up the rest of NZF. Members . If L/Gs accommodate that lot we would have a load of trouble. Winston and his mates would be disastrous for Labour and the Greens, Better that we now work together to have a L/G government that will deliver to the people a decent progressive government, Lets not have senseless waste of time debates on who will win but set our energies on a workable win for L/G or we will have another 3 years of this awful ant-worker government with Sir John at the head . The thought scares me .

  27. gnomic 27

    There are theories and then there are crazed phantasies. While it is always unwise to write off Winston (and I confess I have blundered along those lines in the past) I just don’t see how history between the current ruling clique of the Nats and the leader of Winston First could be overcome. At meetings of the old folk I have heard Winnie lambast the Right Hon Weasel, the Minister of Everything, and Blinglish in very forthright terms. Winston is of course a lawyer and I am not but his remarks about Joyce and his commercial dealings seemed close to actionable. Joyce has not however chosen to put it to the test in the courts.

    So perhaps Hoots and other ‘commentators’ need to drop this claptrap and think up something even vaguely plausible. Of course a week is an age in politics and it is usually safe to rely on the short memory span of the electorate, but is Peters really that integrity-challenged?

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