The Debt Bogey Returns

Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, May 28th, 2009 - 32 comments
Categories: budget 2009, economy - Tags:

Seems this op-ed was off-message for one of our larger media outlets, we’re happy to run it:

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Alan Blinder, Professor of Public Affairs at Princeton recently warned Americans: ‘ Prematurely changing fiscal and monetary policies – from stepping hard on the accelerator to slamming on the brake – can be hazardous to the economy’s health’. He was talking about the US economy and urging the President to do two things. One is to resist the ‘deficit hawks’ agitating to lower US debt. The other is to learn the lessons of the 1936 depression when President Roosevelt , spooked by growing debt, chose to tighten spending. The faltering green-shoots of recovery immediately withered and died.

If Professor Blinder was a New Zealander, he might label Treasury as the deficit hawks to be resisted. He might also point to the 1991 budget as the history lesson from which we should learn.

The Treasury argues that we are at risk of a credit downgrade. To back this up they forecast debt to GDP ratio to 2023 of 75%. Forecasting over a 15 year period is so hairy that it would be dangerous to allow these numbers to influence policy especially in the midst of a recession that economists couldn’t even predict as recently as 2007.

Since the main role for Government debt is to smooth consumption over the business cycle, we would expect to see debt going up in bad times and coming down in good. This is the optimal debt management strategy. Therefore, the excessive focus on reducing deficit right now in order to control future Government debt is the worst possible timing.

Indeed, recent economic studies argue that the optimal quantity of debt might in fact be considerably higher than ours around two-thirds for the US economy. Therefore, rather than yielding to the deficit hawks, and undertaking dangerous fiscal tightening, the Minister ought to deliver an effective stimulus package directed at those sections of the economy that are most likely to respond with increased demand. While the current tax cuts were presented as a stimulus package, they went to high income earners who have a high propensity to save. There is little immediate ‘stimulus’ from such tax cuts. Instead a one-off payment to those who are suffering under the recession has the highest chance of being effective. This is the sort of package that Australia, US and Europe are undertaking.

One doesn’t have to be an economist to see that there is something fundamentally wrong with Government sacking employees during a recession. The PSA estimates that over 1,000 Public Service jobs were lost in the last six months. An environment of job insecurity has immediate detrimental effect on household spending. For every IRD employee who is made redundant, there are five or ten who fear redundancy and start cutting back spending. Given high household debt, such fears lead to a reduction in household spending which is far more pervasive than those directly affected by job losses. As we witnessed during the sub-prime meltdown, it is not the facts but the fears that drive markets. Businesses which rely on domestic household spending are suffering with record reduction in retail spending. Job insecurity harms these businesses.

Reading the 1990 pre-budget advise by Treasury, and the 2008 versions provide striking similarities. Both were written for a new National Government — the 1990 version was read by Ruth Richardson, the 2008 by Bill English. Both emphasise the high budget deficits being forecast, and urge the Government to respond to these deficits with spending restraints. Ruth Richardson, convinced that fiscal restraint was called for, produced the 1991 ‘Mother of all Budgets’. There followed the largest contraction in post-war New Zealand.

Treasury claims this is an important budget. In the midst of a recession Ministers and Treasury should be continually fine-tuning policy setting. Every morning, the Minister should be asking himself and his officials: is today the day for a mini-budget? Yearly budgets are crude tools for ‘ordinary times’. These are extra-ordinary times, where only continued vigilance, and real-time fiscal policy can have any hope of working.

Rhema Vaithianathan & Begoña Domínguez are both Senior Lecturers in Economics at the University of Auckland Business School

32 comments on “The Debt Bogey Returns ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. gingercrush 1
    28 May 2009 at 10:06 am

    Oh no wonder Labour is using Rhema for Super City costings they are obviously far-left. If someone really thinks New Zealand should have government debt in the region of what the US has. I really fear for that person. Sure that person must have a commerce degree. Almost likely they have post-graduate qualifications/ But really New Zealand should have debt similar in ratio to what the United States has? Somehow I find that really dumbfounded.

    • Zetetic 1.1
      28 May 2009 at 10:12 am

      They’re both PhDs.

      But please, continue to share your wealth of knowledge with us gingercrush. Maybe you could elaborate on optimal debt ratios in small export-driven economies?

      • gingercrush 1.1.1
        28 May 2009 at 10:26 am

        We need a sustainable debt track.
        Debt’s not a huge problem but the less the better. The simple way to do that is forget tax cuts. Ideally, undo the previous ones too. But I suspect Key wants to keep his hundred bucks a week. Introduce a capital gains tax. Screw the property traders (see them in the paper already trying to create the next bubble). Capital gains will stop overinvestment into housing as well as keep debt under control. Oh, and raise taxes for the richest few percent like they did in the UK.

        Were you lying when you wrote this yesterday?

    • IrishBill 1.2
      28 May 2009 at 10:25 am

      Again I have to question your perception of economic reality. The above strikes me as a (quite conservative) orthodox economic analysis. I hadn’t realised how fringe-right you were until now, GC.

      • gingercrush 1.2.1
        28 May 2009 at 10:30 am

        Really? So you’re quite happy for this government to rack up debt levels to a similar ratio to the United States. You don’t find that troubling? So on top of high personal debt which is itself a huge problem for New Zealand you’d also be quite happy for New Zealand’s debt levels to be that high? How is huge government debt and huge personal; debt good for any economy?

        And why exactly is questioning such high debt levels fringe-right? If that is fringe-right you’re so far to the left that its beyond a joke.

        • IrishBill 1.2.1.1
          28 May 2009 at 11:46 am

          The post doesn’t suggest raising our debt to GDP ratio to that of the US. The fact you have to pretend it does to justify your claim it is far left (which I assume would make the current US government far left?) only shows how fringe you are.

          I would also point out that it was your claim that this orthodox economic analysis was “far left” that prompted me to make the observation your economic spectrum is out of whack with the rest of the world. I see nothing in your non-rebuttal that would cause me or any other right-thinking person on the street to question the veracity of that observation.

  2. vto 2
    28 May 2009 at 10:37 am

    Why are debt levels going to soar here in NZ? Is i because the govt is going to keep spending at, plus or minus, current levels with money it doesn’t have and tells us it wont be able to repay until 2020 or some such? If so, then that is just dumb. If there is, by dint of this meltdown, less money in the world then the govt (like every person with feet on the planet) should spend less. If that means less services etc then that is an unfortunate reality. I don’t think anyone should realistically expect that NZ’s living standards should keep going up forever. Or even stay the same. That ignores history.

  3. Lew 3
    28 May 2009 at 10:40 am

    vto,

    I don’t think anyone should realistically expect that NZ’s living standards should keep going up forever.

    Isn’t this perpetual state of growth the fundamental core of the ACT/National economic paradigm?

    L

    • vto 3.1
      28 May 2009 at 10:44 am

      Well yes it seems to be Lew. Not just for act/nat but for labour also. And I don’t know why – probably because to express the contrary view would spell political death. That whole perpetual growth thing definitely has flaws – a bit like anything perpetual, it doesnt actually exist.

  4. jarbury 4
    28 May 2009 at 10:41 am

    How on earth are these debt forecasts calculated anyway? Is it expected that we’ll be in constant recession for the next 15-20 years and our tax take won’t increase?

    Surely not…. I would hope.

  5. Tom Semmens 5
    28 May 2009 at 11:04 am

    One thing about Treasury that has always been a mystery to me. Their forecasts, first of the surplus then of the deficit, have been wildly out. So wildly out as to make their predictions useless. Almost all their forcasting and economic advice is straight out of a Randian la la land and is underpinned by a now hopelessly discredited and out of date economic theory that almost everyone outside the US Republican party moved on from a decade or more ago. Their “advice” could be written up as a guest post on Kiwiblog by anyone of about ten of Farrar’s loons, all for free and in about fifteen minutes. The Treasury’s ideological rigidity (and economic irrelevance) in the face of the real world is astonishing given they ensure they are the only source of advice the government has on economic matters.

    Yet somehow they retain the most highly paid staff in the civil service (completely untouched by any hint of job cutting) and somehow they move on from the Treasury with their teflon reputations intact to become hired guns like Graham Scott at thousands of dollars cost to the taxpayer. High priests of the market sucking the public tit as they preach “do as we say, not as we do.”

    I can only suppose they survive in the same way pedophile priests survive – ideological bedfellows will always look after their own, regardless of their real world sins.

  6. Dr Begoña Domínguez 6
    28 May 2009 at 11:21 am

    Gingercrush,
    Neither Rhema or I suggest that NZ’s government debt should jump up to the level of the US debt. What we say is that Treasury’s worries over NZ’s debt level are unfounded and come at the worst possible time. Well-established economic theory arguments say that debt should be used to smooth consumption over the cycle, it should increase now when we are at the bottom of the cycle. It should go down later when we are at the top of the cycle. Moreover, NZ’s level of debt is very low compared internationally.
    I suggest you read Aiyagari, S. R & E.R. McGrattan, 1998 ?The Optimum Quantity of Debt? Journal of Monetary Economics. 447-469 where they suggest that the optimal debt for the US is two-thirds. This is not fringe economics. The Journal of Monetary Economics is the top journal in Macro. These are top people in their field.
    Personally, I fear more people who do not take the time or have the ability to read an article carefully and moreover do not hesitate to use their unfounded opinions to insult the writers of the article.

    • IrishBill 6.1
      28 May 2009 at 11:53 am

      Fringe right wing troll owned by Dr of Economics. Biggest slap-down I’ve seen on a blog for a while.

    • gingercrush 6.2
      28 May 2009 at 1:10 pm

      So you think Treasury’s concerns about government debt levels are unfounded? This despite a credit credit agency in Standard & Poor telling us that our government debt levels are a concern and that we risk a downgrade if our debt isn’t sorted out. What are the consequences of a downgrade by Standard and Poor? You of course know the consequences and are choosing to ignore them. In a time when businesses are struggling. In a time when individuals are struggling. Don’t you think interest rate hikes are the last things they need? If our economy is struggling why would you want to see it harder for business, banks, the government and individuals to borrow money? Interest rates would of course go up if our credit rating went down. This would be problematic for the economy and have real effects.

      It is of course not just Treasury saying there is a risk of a downgrade. S&P themselves are saying there is a risk of a downgrade. Do you think we should not be taking this seriously and thus should simply spend money? Have those stimulus packages the United States and others have done saw their economies recover again? How is their unemployment tracking? Are their economics still contracting? What about Europe and the stimuls packages they’re doing. Are they still not contracting? What about Japan. It has done several stimulus packages over several years and they have been shown not to work. After all, they had their worse contraction for their economy just recently. This despite them spending billions towards providing stimulus for their economy.

      Of course countries need some economic stimulus. No one actually doubts that. But the levels of spending other countries are doing for their economies haven’t exactly worked. They’re just increasing debts above levels that are sustainable. Without any real evidence that stimulus is working. You can’t really believe debt doesn’t matter. You can’t even abscribe how much debt New Zealand can have which is optimal.

      —

      Bah an earlier post ot trying to rebut this and rather better than this rebuttal was wiped somehow. Not that I suggest either are any good.

      • Zaphod Beeblebrox 6.2.1
        28 May 2009 at 1:59 pm

        Dr GC How can you definitively say they haven’t worked? There’s no way you can say what would have happened otherwise. Most of the US stimulus package hasn’t even been given over yet and you’re already proclaimimg it a failure.
        It will be a long time before we will be able to look at the effects of this recession, I guess the actions of governments in future will be measured by how well they looked after their citizens, how well they limited social unrest (crime, family breakdowns, suicides etc..) and how well they adapted to what is needed for the future

    • burt 6.3
      28 May 2009 at 1:38 pm

      IB

      Not sure it was a slap-down, certainly a reiteration of the general Keynesian principle of govt working counter the business cycle.

      The issue that wasn’t addressed IMHO is that the adherence to that general principle seems to do little to manage the cycle.

      Grown and productivity have been the victims of the Labour govt simplistic ‘pay off debt’ approach. What could we change to change the cycle from one of simply repeating the same BS over and over again ?

  7. Tom Semmens 7
    28 May 2009 at 11:30 am

    Dr. Dominguez – if you have a moment, could you comment on the quality of advice given by Treasurry? is it normal, for example, for a government in a liberal democracy to have only one source of economic advice? And is it normal in the early 21st century for that government to have its sole source of advice so completely captured by such rigid economic orthodoxy as comes from our Treasury?

    I am curious to know if we are stuck with something unusual or if it is a standard phenomena across the OECD.

  8. Dr Begoña Domínguez 8
    28 May 2009 at 12:24 pm

    Tom Semmens, I am concerned about the quality of the advice given by Treasury in this instance. I am worried about the lack of economic arguments behind their advice. I am also concerned about the quality of their forecasts and I doubt there is a sound economic model behind.
    My experience in Europe tells me this is not a standard phenomena. In the last decade, governments are relying more and more on independent advisory groups formed by top professionals of different fields. I know many of the Economists who are working for the Economic Bureau of the Prime Minister of Spain and they are top Economists in the world. I believe this practise is improving greatly the quality of policy making in Europe and it would be great to see the same movement in NZ.

  9. burt 9
    28 May 2009 at 12:37 pm

    ” Prematurely changing fiscal and monetary policies – from stepping hard on the accelerator to slamming on the brake – can be hazardous to the economy’s health’

    Yes exactly. Look at the mess that was created with the labour party had their famous David Lange tea break during the reforms of the 80’s. Labour got too scared of loosing an election and pulled on the reform handbrake.

    So, we re-tried the monopoly state provider model one more time and it failed again like it has every time. Today we get to see if National has the balls to chuck out some of Labour’s policies designed to entrench welfare dependency in the middle class.

    • Draco T Bastard 9.1
      28 May 2009 at 4:35 pm

      Well, when the businesses start paying cost price or better to maintain societal living standards then we can get rid of the governments subsidy of business commonly referred to as Working for Families.

      Dependence is guaranteed – it cannot be got rid of. We usually refer to it as interdependence though. What you refer to as welfare dependence is society being interdependent upon itself rather than the alternative, which you seem to support, where everyone is truly and fully dependent upon the rich. Such a dependence really will bring about another revolution as almost everybodies living standard takes a dive.

  10. Tom Semmens 10
    28 May 2009 at 1:26 pm

    Dr. Dominguez – very interesting, thank you. I note that John Key has got himself an ” independent scientific advisor” (Professor Peter Gluckman), but I would be concerned if the government turned increasingly to third parties to provide it with advice. It seems just another step along the road of either sidelining or politicising the public service. After all, outsourcing simply moves accountability for the advice given out of the public service and into the private or public-private sector and eventually you’ll just end up with an unsatifactory situation such as exists in the United States, where the battleground has shifted from an open, accountable public service to highly politicised appointments of unaccountable people to key advisory positions.

    I think I would prefer the government to set up other centres of economic policy advice within the civil service. Before the Rogernomics revolution, such an alternative body existed in (of all places) the Ministry Of Works. tellingly, when Rogernomics revolution began the MoW policy advice unit was amongst the very first targets of the Treasury ideologues.

    Treasury believes in the free market – but cannot tolerate any competition to itself in the marketplace of ideas. Given how much Treasury hates such independent policy units, it may be a good idea to start lobbying to have such a unit set up outside Treasury.

  11. Deepred 11
    28 May 2009 at 1:34 pm

    For the record, Standard & Poors are under investigation by the US Securities & Exchange Commission for various reasons, including the Subprime Chernobyl:

    http://www.yourlawyer.com/articles/read/15544

    S&P also got its predictions horribly wrong with the Icelandic meltdown, and apparently it was also in denial about it.

  12. StephenR 12
    28 May 2009 at 1:36 pm

    In the last decade, governments are relying more and more on independent advisory groups formed by top professionals of different fields

    This has been the case for a few decades in the US too, except they’re called thinktanks. Allows a government to choose which type of independent advice they’d like to receive too, wink wink.

  13. Rhema Vaithianathan 13
    28 May 2009 at 1:49 pm

    A couple of points. Yes, fiscal policy will affect interest rates. That’s why there is monetary policy – to ensure that the interest rate effects of fiscal policy are mitigated. So, any change in fiscal position requires re-setting of monetary policy. This is always the case – and this is the challenge of optimal monetary and fiscal policies. Looking purely at the first round effects on interest rates (as I have heard the Prime Minister do) without subsequent effect on OCR is misleading.

    Any trader worth their salt doesn’t need to look at S & P, but at the fundamentals. These are what drive the cost of borrowing. It is a live debate in economics as to whether credit downgrades per se have a big impact on the economy – as opposed to those events which lead to the downgrade.

    The Irish experience being used to estimate the cost of credit is misguided. There are so many differences – including the presence of toxic debt in their system, and the need for large bailouts which sees their debt rising to 100% of GDP. Even in the absence of a downgrade, we would have expected their country-specific risk (i.e. the premium required to lend to Ireland) increase.

  14. r0b 14
    28 May 2009 at 2:03 pm

    It’s great to see academics contributing posts and joining in the discussion here. As the academic role includes “critic and conscience” of society, I would have expected to be seeing more of this by now.

    So here’s a call to academics, this is a “new” medium for disseminating and discussing ideas – get in to it!

  15. burt 15
    29 May 2009 at 12:56 pm

    I think RedLogix made a excellent summary of the debt situation here.

    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/national-has-blown-it/#comment-129582

    Anymore debt and our credit rating gets hammered, and cost across the board rise. Gets worse than that and no-one will lend to us at any price.

    Not too many commentators have realised the significance of the $50 billion dollar ‘hole in govt accounts over three years’ announcement this week……

    There will be no ‘stimulus’ here in NZ . English has no choice but to cut expenditure and massively.

  16. Oliver Darraugh 16
    17 August 2009 at 5:34 pm

    The first step when faced with debts you cannot repay is to face up to the fact that you need help and do not bury your head in the sand. The next is to work out what you have coming into the home and going out. See where you can make savings which would allow you money towards paying off your debts. Following this you need to get help and advice and answers to your debt management questions.

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    Last month, we learned that the government was half-arsing its anti-gang legislation, adding a significant, pre-planned, BORA-abusing amendment at the committee stage, avoiding all the usual scrutiny processes. But it gets worse. Because having done it once, they're now planning to recall the bill in order to add another such ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Political Round Up

    Note: An earlier version of this article noted Levy was a “party time Health NZ commissioner” - this has been updated - forgive my Freudian slip.Dr Lester Levy is charging $320,000 a year to be a part time Health NZ commissioner. Rachel Thomas reports that Levy is still teaching 2 ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Postcard from Sydney: Southwest and City Metro extension

    This is a guest post from Sydney reader Nik Clement After 2 years in Auckland I moved back to Sydney just over a year ago. While in Auckland, I went to the opening of Puhinui station and used it a fair bit, living in Manukau Central and being able ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    3 days ago
  • Tolling revolt brewing in National heartland

    Kia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, September 18:Locals gathered in Woodville last night to protest at the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s decision to toll the new road linking the Manawatu and Hawkes Bay, saying ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • The doom spiral

    This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler In his last post, Zeke discussed incredible warmth of 2023 and 2024 and its implications for future warming. A few readers looked at it and freaked out: This is terrifying and This update really put me in a ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago
  • Government directs Te Puni Kōkiri to conduct Māori Language Week in English

    The coalition government has issued a directive to Te Puni Kōkiri, the Ministry of Māori Development, instructing them that – in the interests of clear communication – they are to conduct this year’s Māori Language Week primarily or exclusively in English. The directive is in line with the Government’s policy ...
    The CivilianBy Ben Uffindell
    4 days ago
  • Government celebrates fact that New Zealand’s healthcare is so good people are queuing up for it a...

    At yesterday’s post-cabinet press conference, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, flanked by his Health Minister Shane Reti and someone we can’t independently verify was a real sign language interpreter, announced that he had some positive news for the country. “Alright team, I’m just going to hand over to uh, Dr. Shane, ...
    The CivilianBy Ben Uffindell
    4 days ago
  • Heartwarming: Thoughtful driver uses indicator to tell you what they’ve just done

    It’s 4:10pm in the morning, and you’re in the middle lane heading north on the great southern motorway of our nation’s capital, Auckland. There are no cars directly in front of you, but quite a few in the lane to your left. Suddenly, without warning, a black ute enters your ...
    The CivilianBy Ben Uffindell
    4 days ago
  • NPC teams will now be allowed to actually use the Ranfurly Shield in play

    Following decades of controversy, the governing body of New Zealand rugby, New Zealand Rugby, has ruled that the team currently holding the Ranfurly Shield may once again use it in play during the National Provincial Championship (NPC). The ruling restores the utility of a prize that for many years was ...
    The CivilianBy Ben Uffindell
    4 days ago
  • Climbing out of the hamster wheel

    I arrived home with a head full of fresh ideas about mindfulness and curbing impulsive aspects in my character.On the second night home I grabbed a piece of ginger and began swiftly slicing it on our industrial strength mandolin, the one I have learned through painful experience to treat with ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • More Notes From Stinky Town

    Good morning, folks. Another wee note from a chilly Rotorua morning that looks much clearer than yesterday. As I write, the pink glow in the east is slowly growing, and soon, the palest of blue skies should become a bit more royal.A couple of people mentioned yesterday that I should ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Make it make sense: why axe valuable local projects?

    Last week, Matt looked at how the government wants to pour a huge chunk of civic infrastructure funding for a generation  into one mega-road up North, at huge cost and huge opportunity cost. A smaller but no less important feature of the National Land Transport Plan devised by Minister of Transport ...
    Greater AucklandBy Jolisa
    4 days ago
  • Driving blind at higher speeds

    An open letter by experts about plans to raise speed limits warns the “tragic consequence will be more New Zealanders losing their lives or suffering severe injury, along with a substantial burden on the nation's healthcare and rehabilitation services”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • 2024’s unusually persistent warmth

    This is a re-post from The Climate Brink My inaugural post on The Climate Brink 18 months ago looked at the year 2024, and found that it was likely to be the warmest year on record on the back of a (than forecast) El Nino event. I suggested “there is a real chance ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • National plan for 2000 more Kiwis a year in prison

    Open for allYesterday, Luxon congratulated his government on a job well done with emergency housing numbers, but advocates have been saying it‘s likely many are on the streets and sleeping in cars.Q&A featured some of the folks this weekend - homeless and in cars. Yes.The government’s also confirmed they stopped ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • I Found a Note in a Tree

    Hi,On most days I try to go on a walk through nature to clear my head from the horrors of life. Because as much as I like people, I also think it’s incredibly important to get very far away from them. To be reminded that there are also birds, lizards, ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Politicians need to lift their game

    Declining trust in New Zealand politicians should be a warning to them to lift their game. Results from the New Zealand Election Study for the 2023 election show that the level of trust in politicians has once again declined. Perhaps it is not surprising that the results, shared as part ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago
  • Police say they won’t respond to bomb threats anymore as ‘it’s never anything’

    Police Commissioner Andrew Coster says that New Zealand’s police force will no longer respond to bomb threats, in an attempt to cut costs and redirect police resources to less boring activities. Coster said that threat response and bomb disposal was a “fairly obvious” area for downsizing, as bomb threats are ...
    The CivilianBy Ben Uffindell
    5 days ago
  • A dysfunctional watchdog

    The reality of any right depends on how well it is enforced. But as The Post points out this morning, our right to official information isn't being enforced very well at all: More than a quarter of complaints about access to official information languish for more than a year, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: The threat of a good example

    Since taking office, the climate-denier National government has gutted agricultural emissions pricing, ended the clean car discount, repealed water quality standards which would have reduced agricultural emissions, gutted the clean car standard, killed the GIDI scheme, and reversed efforts to reduce pollution subsidies in the ETS - basically every significant ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vegas Baby

    Good morning, lovely people. Don’t worry. This isn’t really a newsletter, just a quick note. I’m sitting in our lounge, looking out over a gloomy sky. Although being Rotorua, the view is periodically interrupted by steam bursting from pipes and dispersing—like an Eastern European industrial hellscape during the Cold War.Drinking ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Why Entrust Needs New Leadership

    I am part of a new team running in the Entrust election in October. Entrust is a community electricity trust representing a significant part of Auckland, set up to serve the community. It is governed by five trustees are elected every three years in an election the trust itself oversees. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • London Bridge is falling down

    In the UK, London is the latest of council groups to signal potential bankruptcy.That’s after Birmingham, Britain’s second largest city, went bankrupt in June, resulting in reduced sanitation services, libraries cut, and dimmed streetlights.Some in the city described things as “Dickens” like.Please, Sir, Can I have some more?For families with ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Govt may kick elderly out of hospitals

    The Government is considering how to shunt elderly people out of hospitals, and also how to cut their access to other support. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Getting the nephs off the couch

    The so-called “Prince of the Provinces”, Shane Jones, went home last Friday. Perhaps not quite literally home, more like 20 kilometres down the road from his house on the outskirts of Kerikeri. With its airport, its rapidly growing (mostly retired) population, and a commercial centre with all the big retail ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • De moralibus orcorum: Sargon of Akkad, Rings of Power, Evil, and George R.R. Martin

    I have noted before that The Rings of Power has attracted its unfortunate share of culture war obsessives. Essentially, for a certain type of individual, railing on about the Wokery of Modern Media is a means of making themselves a online livelihood. Clicks and views and advertising revenue, and all ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    6 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #37

    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 8, 2024 thru Sat, September 14, 2024. Story of the week From time to time we like to make our Story of the Week all about us— and ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • Salvation For Us All

    Yesterday, I ruminated about the effects of being a political follower.And, within politics, David Seymour was smart enough on Friday to divert attention from “race blind” policies [what about gender blind I thought - thinking of maternity wards] and cutting school lunches by throwing meat to the media. Teachers were ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A warm embrace

    Far, far away from here lives our King. Some of his subjects can be quite the forelock tuggers, but plenty of us are not like that, and why don't I wheel out my favourite old story once more about Kiwi soldiers in the North African desert?Field Marshal Montgomery takes offence ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Literal clowns are running the place, we must put a timeout on this stupidity… right Aotearoa?

    These people are inept on every level. They’re inept to the detriment of our internal politics, cohesion and increasingly our international reputation. And they are reveling in the fact they are getting away with it. We cannot even have “respectful debate” with a government that clearly rejects the very ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    7 days ago
  • Fact brief – Does manmade CO2 have any detectable fingerprint?

    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with John Mason. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Does manmade CO2 have any ...
    Skeptical Science
    7 days ago
  • Judge Not.

    Judge not, that ye be not judged. For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again. Matthew 7:1-2FOUR HUNDRED AND FORTY men and women professing the Christian faith would appear to have imperilled their immortal souls. ...
    Bowalley Road
    7 days ago
  • Managed Democracy: Letting The People Decide, But Only When They Can Be Relied Upon To Give the Righ...

    Uh-uh! Not So Fast, Citizens! The power to initiate systemic change remains where it has always been in New Zealand’s representative democracy – in Parliament. To order a binding referendum, the House of Representatives must first to be persuaded that, on the question proposed, sharing its decision-making power with the people ...
    Bowalley Road
    7 days ago
  • Looking For Labour’s Vital Signs.

    Flatlining: With no evidence of a genuine policy disruptor at work in Labour’s ranks, New Zealand’s wealthiest citizens can sleep easy.PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN has walked a picket-line. Presidential candidate Kamala Harris has threatened “price-gauging” grocery retailers with price control. The Democratic Party’s 2024 platform situates it well to the left of Sir ...
    Bowalley Road
    7 days ago
  • Forty Years Of Remembering To Forget.

    The Beginning of the End: Rogernomics became the short-hand descriptor for all the radical changes that swept away New Zealand’s social-democratic economy and society between 1984 and 1990. In the bitterest of ironies, those changes were introduced by the very same party which had entrenched New Zealand social-democracy 50 years earlier. ...
    Bowalley Road
    7 days ago
  • Kōrero Mai – Speak to Me.

    Good morning all you lovely people. 🙂I woke up this morning, and it felt a bit like the last day of school. You might recall from earlier in the week that I’m heading home to Rotorua to see an old friend who doesn’t have much time. A sad journey, but ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Winning ways

    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on anything you may have missed. Street architecture adjustment, KolkataShare Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • 48 seconds on a plan that would reverberate for a million years

    Despite fears that Trump presidency would be disastrous for progress on climate change, the topic barely rated a mention in the Presidential debate. Photo: Getty ImagesLong stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Using blunt instruments and magical thinking to ignore evidence of harm

    The abrupt cancellations and suspensions of Government spending also caused private sector hiring, spending, and investment to freeze up for the first six months of the year. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāThis week we learned:The new National/ACT/NZ First Coalition Government ignored advice from Treasury that it didn’t have to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Is This A Dagger Which I See Before Me: A Review and Analysis of The Rings of Power Episode 5 (Seaso...

    Another week of The Rings of Power, season two, and another confirmation that things are definitely coming together for the show. The fifth Episode of season one represented the nadir of the series. Now? Amid the firmer footing of 2024, Episode Five represents further a further step towards excellent Tolkien ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • In Open Seas; A Book

    The background to In Open Seas: How the New Zealand Labour Government Went Wrong:2017-2023Not in Narrow Seas: The Economic History of Aotearoa New Zealand, published in 2020, proved more successful than either I or the publisher (VUP, now Te Herenga Waka University Press) expected. I had expected that it would ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Sept 13

    The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts and talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest climate science on rising temperatures and the climate implications of the US Presidential elections; and special guests Janet ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Do or do not. There is no try

    1. Upon receiving evidence that school lunches were doing a marvellous job of improving outcomes for students, David Seymour did what?a. Declared we need much more of this sort of good news and poured extra resources and funding into them b. Emailed Atlas network to ask what to do next c. Cut ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Dangerous ground

    The Waitangi Tribunal has reported back on National's proposed changes to gut the Marine and Coastal Area Act and steal the foreshore and seabed for its greedy fishing-industry donors, and declared it to be another huge violation of ti Tiriti: The Waitangi Tribunal has found government changes to the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: National wants to cheat on Paris

    In 2016, the then-National government signed the Paris Agreement, committing Aotearoa to a 30 (later 50) percent reduction in emissions by 2030. When questioned about how they intended to meet that target with their complete absence of effective climate policy, they made a lot of noise about how it was ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Treasury warned Govt lower debt limits meant less ‘productivity-enhancing investment’

    Treasury’s advice to Cabinet was that the new Government could actually prudently carry net core Crown debt of up to 50% of GDP. But Luxon and Willis instead chose to portray the Government’s finances as in such a mess they had no choice but to carve 6.5% to 7.5% off ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago

  • Tourism on the table for Pacific Ministers’ meet-up

    Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey will meet with Trade and Tourism Minister of Australia Don Farrell and Fiji Deputy Prime Minister Manoa Kamikamica in Rotorua this weekend for a trilateral tourism discussion. “Like in New Zealand, tourism plays a significant role in Australia and Fiji’s economy, contributing massively to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Young people report on family and sexual violence

    The Te Puna Aonui Expert Advisory Group for Children and Young People has presented its report today on improving family and sexual violence outcomes for young people, to the Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Karen Chhour.  The presentation at the Auckland event was an opportunity for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • $18 million being invested in the victims of crime

    The Government is putting more than $18 million towards improving the experience of the criminal justice system for victims, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Minister for Children Karen Chhour say. “No one should experience crime, but for those who through no fault of their own become victims, they need to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Landmark phonics check in te reo Māori

    For the first time, schools can use a purpose-built tool to check how a child is progressing in reading through te reo Māori. “Around 45 schools are trialling a New Zealand first te reo Māori phonics check, known as Hihira Weteoro. It will help kaiako (teachers) focus on what ākonga ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • New sea walls safeguard Ōpōtiki’s transformation

    Two new breakwater walls at Pākihikura (Ōpōtiki) Harbour will provide boats with safe harbour access to support the continued growth of aquaculture in Bay of Plenty, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones say. The Ministers and leaders from Tē Tāwharau o Te Whakatōhea and other ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Kitmap to improve access to science infrastructure

    Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins today announced an online platform to optimise the use of New Zealand’s science and technology research infrastructure and to link the public and private sector. “This country is home to world-class science, technology, and engineering expertise. Kitmap is set to empower Kiwi innovators, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Driving the uptake of low emission heavy vehicles

    The Government has launched the Low Emissions Heavy Vehicle Fund (LEHVF) to promote innovation and offset the cost of hundreds of heavy vehicles powered by clean technologies, Energy Minister Simeon Brown and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts say. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech on replacing the Resource Management Act

    Replacing the RMA Hon Chris Bishop: Good morning, it is great to be with you. Can I first acknowledge the Resource Management Law Association for hosting us here today. Can I also acknowledge my Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Simon Court, who is on stage with me. He has assisted me in establishing the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Replacement for the Resource Management Act takes shape

    Two new laws will be developed to replace the Resource Management Act (RMA), with the enjoyment of property rights as their guiding principle, RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Parliamentary Under-Secretary Simon Court say. “The RMA was passed with good intentions in 1991 but has proved a failure in practice. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Tough laws pass to make gang life uncomfortable

    Legislation passed through Parliament today will provide police and the courts with additional tools to crack down on gangs that peddle misery and intimidation throughout New Zealand, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “From November 21, gang insignia will be banned in all public places, courts will be able to issue non-consorting orders, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New levy rates set to ensure continued funding of FENZ

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government has agreed to the rates for the redesigned levy that will fund Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ) from July 2026.  “Earlier this year FENZ consulted publicly on a 5.2 percent increase to the levy. I was not convinced that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Police allocate Officers to Beat and Gang Units

    The Coalition Government welcomes Police’s announcement today to deploy more police on the beat and staff to Gang Disruption Units.  An additional 70 officers will be allocated to Community Beat Teams across towns and regional centres.  This builds on the deployment of beat officers in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch CBDs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Consultation begins on significant updates to the biosecurity system

    Proposals to strengthen the country’s vital biosecurity system, including higher fines for passengers bringing in undeclared high-risk goods, greater flexibility around importing requirements, and fairer cost sharing for biosecurity responses have been released today for public consultation. Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says “The future is about resilience and the 30-year-old ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Wānaka community to benefit from new overnight health service

    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says an Overnight Acute Care Service opening in October will provide people in Wānaka and the surrounding area with the assurance of quality overnight care closer to home.  “When I was in Wānaka earlier this year, I announced funding for an overnight health service – ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Preventing potholes with data-driven technology

    The Government is rolling out data collection vans across the country to better understand the condition of our road network to prevent potholes from forming in the first place, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Increasing productivity to help rebuild our economy is a key priority for the Government and increasing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • GDP data shows effect of high interest rates

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the quarter to June 2024 reinforces how an extended period of high interest rates has meant tough times for families, businesses, and communities, but recent indications show the economy is starting to bounce back, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ data released today ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ to host first Fiji, Australia trilateral trade Ministers’ meeting in Rotorua

    Trade Minister Todd McClay will host Fijian Deputy Prime Minister Manoa Kamikamica and Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell for trilateral trade talks in Rotorua this weekend. “Fiji is one of the largest economies in the Pacific and is a respected partner for Australia and New Zealand,” Mr McClay says. Australia and New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ hosts Annual CER Trade Ministers’ meeting in Rotorua

    Trade Minister Todd McClay will meet with Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell for the annual Closer Economic Relations (CER) Trade Ministers’ meeting in Rotorua this weekend.  “CER is our most comprehensive agreement covering trade, labour mobility, harmonisation of standards and political cooperation. It underpins an important trading relationship worth $32 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government proposing changes to jury trials

    The Government is seeking the public’s feedback on two major changes to jury trials in order to improve court timeliness, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “The first proposal would increase the offence threshold at which a defendant can decide to have their case heard by a jury. “The second is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Business key to regional economic dialogue

    Local businesses and industries need to be front and centre in conversations about how regions plan to grow their economies, Regional Development Shane Jones says. The nationwide series of summits aims to facilitate conversations about regional economic growth and opportunities to drive productivity, prosperity and resilience through the Coalition Government’s Regional ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • More funding for Growing Up in New Zealand study

    The Government is investing $16.8 million over the next four years to extend the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) Longitudinal Study. GUiNZ is New Zealand’s largest longitudinal study of child health and wellbeing and has followed the lives of more than 6000 children born in 2009 and 2010, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Tough targets for charter schools will raise achievement

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that Charter Schools will face a combination of minimum performance thresholds and stretch targets for achievement, attendance and financial sustainability. “Charter schools will be given greater freedom to respond to diverse student needs in innovative ways, but they will be held to a much ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ votes for Middle East resolution at UN

    New Zealand has voted for a United Nations resolution on Israel’s presence in occupied Palestinian Territory with some caveats, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “New Zealand’s yes vote is fundamentally a signal of our strong support for international law and the need for a two-state solution,” Mr Peters says.    “The Israel-Palestine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Honouring the legacy of New Zealand’s suffragists

    Suffrage Day is an opportunity to reaffirm New Zealand’s commitment to ensuring we continue to be a world leader in gender equality, Minister for Women Nicola Grigg says. “On 19 September, 131 years ago, New Zealand became the first nation in the world where women gained the right to vote. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Foreign Minister to travel to New York, French Polynesia

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters is travelling to New York next week to attend the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, followed by a visit to French Polynesia. “In the context of the myriad regional and global crises, our engagements in New York will demonstrate New Zealand’s strong support for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Thanking social workers on their national day

    “Today, on Aotearoa New Zealand Social Workers’ Day, I would like to recognise the tremendous effort social workers make not just today, but every day,” Children’s Minister and Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour says. “I thank all those working on the front line for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Minister of State for Trade heads to Laos for ASEAN meetings

    Minister of State for Trade Nicola Grigg will travel to Laos this week to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Ministers’ Meetings in Vientiane.   “The Government is committed to strengthening our relationship with ASEAN,” Ms Grigg says. “With next year marking 50 years since New Zealand became ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Members appointed to retail crime MAG

    The Government has appointed four members to the Ministerial Advisory Group for victims of retail crime, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee say. “I am delighted to appoint Michael Hill’s national retail manager Michael Bell to the group, as well as Waikato community advocate and business ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation AGM and Conference 2024

    It’s my pleasure to be here to join the opening of the NZNO AGM and Conference for 2024.  First, I’d like to thank NZNO Kaiwhakahaere Kerri Nuku, NZNO President, Anne Daniels, and Chief Execuitve Paul Gaulter for inviting me to speak today.  Thank you also to all the NZNO members ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Improvements for New Zealand authors

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says changes to the Public Lending Right [PLR] scheme will help benefit both the National Library and authors who have books available in New Zealand libraries. “I am amending the regulations so that eligible authors will no longer have to reapply every year ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister commends Police for gang operation

    Police Minister Mark Mitchell congratulates Police for the outstanding result of their most recent operation, targeting the Comancheros. “That Police have been able to round up the majority of the Comancheros leadership, and many of their patched members and prospects, shows not only the capability of Police, but also shows ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New appointments to the EPA board

    Environment Minister Penny Simmonds has announced a major refresh of the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) board with four new appointments and one reappointment.   The new board members are Barry O’Neil, Jennifer Scoular, Alison Stewart and Nancy Tuaine, who have been appointed for a three-year term ending in August 2027.  “I would ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Enabling rural recovery works in Hawke’s Bay

    Cabinet has approved an Order in Council to enable severe weather recovery works to continue in the Hawke’s Bay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery Mark Mitchell say. “Cyclone Gabrielle and the other severe weather events in early 2023 caused significant loss and damage to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • FamilyBoost childcare payment registrations open

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