Winston Peters, King Maker

Written By: - Date published: 8:49 am, July 25th, 2013 - 109 comments
Categories: election 2014, john key, national, nz first, Politics, winston peters - Tags:

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So John Key is no longer ruling out the possibility of National going into coalition with NZ First. As Karol has pointed out this is a dramatic change from his previous position and when you review what he has said in the past it is a stark change.  Stand by as the forces of the right engage in a major revision of our recent history to try and persuade us that nothing untoward is happening.  TV3’s recent poll may be the first of many events suggesting that Peters is now acceptable.

There is a principle of sorts at stake.  This is the principle that National MPs are born to rule and will do what is required to gain and retain power.  If this involves the demonisation of another party’s leader and then the subsequent offer to him of a senior role then this is perfectly consistent with this principle.

The likely reality is that Winston Peters will be the king maker after the next election.  If he decides to support a National administration then history will be repeating itself because his party was the go to party for administrations in their third (and in this case hopefully final) term in the last two Governments.  But a third term with this bunch in charge will leave the country in tatters.

Why is Peters a likely king maker?  The simple answer is MMP dynamics and the need to get over or close to 50% of popular support.  Labour is stuck in the low 30s in the polls and support is drifting away.  Without wishing to express an opinion about why this is so all that I say is that Labour’s MPs need to spark.  The Greens have performed well but have plateaued around 12 to 13% of the vote.  The combined left vote may struggle to reach 45%.

None of the other parties appear to have the ability to return to Parliament with numbers.  Hone should be back but probably only by himself, Flavell may hang on, Banks is gone and Dunne is done.  The Conservatives are the only possibly viable new party and they are currently polling below the MMP threshold.

National is in the high 40s in recent polls but I am sure that this support will ebb away as it did during the last election campaign.  They will not be able to rule in their own right unless things dramatically, dramatically change.

So it will be up to Winston who leads the country next time.

He appears to be very reluctant to go into coalition with the Greens and such an arrangement would be very unstable.  The parties’ world views are too different and the respective styles are too jarring.  I would expect that NZ First would be far too obstructive to any policy designed to address climate change for instance.  It is likely that such an arrangement would fail.

National on the other hand will be prepared to do whatever is required to hold onto power.

So there is a large risk that Peters may become a Deputy Prime Minister after the next election in a coalition with National.  Be afraid, be very afraid …

109 comments on “Winston Peters, King Maker ”

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  1. Santi 1
    25 July 2013 at 8:56 am

    “National on the other hand will be prepared to do whatever is required to hold onto power.”
    Only National? No other political party? Really?

    • burt 1.1
      25 July 2013 at 9:02 am

      It’s different when Labour do it.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 1.1.1
        25 July 2013 at 9:09 am

        Exactly. Higher per capita GDP and some pro-New Zealand policies, for example: big difference.

        • Tamati 1.1.1.1
          25 July 2013 at 9:12 am

          What exactly are “Pro- New Zealand policies” ?

          • King Kong 1.1.1.1.1
            25 July 2013 at 9:18 am

            Pro is an abbreviation of prostitute

            • Tracey 1.1.1.1.1.1
              25 July 2013 at 9:27 am

              I think you refer to Peter Dunne and Mr Banks

              “One who sells one’s abilities, talent, or name for an unworthy purpose.”

            • tricledrown 1.1.1.1.1.2
              25 July 2013 at 9:29 am

              primitive primate can’t think about anything above the waistline!
              primitive brain primitive instincts!

            • paul andersen 1.1.1.1.1.3
              25 July 2013 at 10:05 am

              you would know.

          • burt 1.1.1.1.2
            25 July 2013 at 9:32 am

            Pro NZ policies…. Like when Winston was taking secret donations from the big business horse racing interests and negotiated a tax cut for the racing industry… at a time when tax cuts were bad… Peters in his budget speech described these tax cuts as beneficial to the entire economy.. Labour playing the “tax cuts bad” card were being very pro Winston NZ letting that happen.

            • Santi 1.1.1.1.2.1
              25 July 2013 at 9:35 am

              Winston Peters CANNOT be trusted by anyone. He is a proven liar and crook.

              • mickysavage …
                25 July 2013 at 9:36 am

                So Santi if Peters goes into coalition with National what will you do and who will you support?

                • DavidC …
                  25 July 2013 at 7:26 pm

                  MS.

                  Will Labour rule out doing a deal with him?
                  Helen didnt have a problem with handing Winston all the baubles he required to sell his vote.

                  • Draco T Bastard …
                    25 July 2013 at 8:55 pm

                    Why are you asking MS that? He’s not the one who supports a party that said that they wouldn’t go with Winston on principle but are now saying that they will on pragmatism.

              • McFlock …
                25 July 2013 at 12:33 pm

                He is a proven liar and crook.

                Practically a National minister, then. Good enough to be a coalition partner, anyway.

            • Tracey 1.1.1.1.2.2
              25 July 2013 at 9:43 am

              and Mr key abhorred that and pleaded with Clark to sack Peters… yet when Banks got into all kinds of hot water he said he had no control over another party…

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 1.1.1.1.3
            25 July 2013 at 9:34 am

            You can interpret English using the Oxford dictionary can’t you Tamati?

            The National Party serves its clients’ interests, whether they diverge from the national interest or not.

            • Tamati 1.1.1.1.3.1
              25 July 2013 at 9:39 am

              You’re starting to sound a bit like an American politician who described her own policies as “Pro-American” when contrasting them with Obama.

              Do you want to guess who?

              • One Anonymous Knucklehead …
                25 July 2013 at 10:13 am

                The main difference being that she cites God whereas I cite the New Zealand Law Society.

            • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.1.3.2
              25 July 2013 at 10:08 am

              Maybe we can find a Labour Party somewhere willing to consistently serve the interests of the bottom 60% of society.

              That would be stunning.

              • burt …
                25 July 2013 at 10:21 am

                When the party members are in the bottom 60% of society they will serve that “group”. Meanwhile low paid workers pay union fees which get donated to highly paid politicians so the top 1% don’t need to spend their own money on their campaigning so they can stay in the 1%. Then they call themselves a “workers rights” party – laughable.

              • Hami Shearlie …
                25 July 2013 at 10:34 am

                But, unfortunately, very unlikely with the ABC crowd still there! They just don’t care about the 800,000 people who didn’t vote last time.

              • Rosetinted …
                25 July 2013 at 10:35 am

                CV You won’t find that here at present. The Labour leader here finds it disgraceful that a beneficiary should try to do some work on the place he or she lives in. This is the RW approach that doesn’t want people to make their lives a bit better if they are receiving a benefit. They should go to bed exhausted after tramping the streets all day looking for work possibly for ever.

                And we have known for a long while that it’s the same in Britainbut now is likely to get worse. I heard this morning that Ed Milliband is proposing breaking the Brit Labour connection with the unions through relying on funding from them. The Brit commentator Matthew Parrish said a number of times how brave Milliband was. I think comment shows a strong right wing bias.

                Labour has been affected by a disease like a virus that has attacked trees, like Dutch elm disease or the one affecting poplars. Thiis disease has struck at Labour’s heart wood.

      • tricledrown 1.1.2
        25 July 2013 at 9:10 am

        just another Key brain fade!
        Puts more pressure on asset sales to be completed!

      • Tracey 1.1.3
        25 July 2013 at 9:29 am

        it doesn’t help the country when anyone does it. it’s not a game, govt affects real peoples real lives.

  2. Tamati 2
    25 July 2013 at 9:10 am

    Don’t you think that there is at least a chance that Winston won’t get back in? He consistantly polls in the 2-3 % range so has some way to go. If he us unable to gain much media attention perhaps his voters may simply forget him.

    Disagree on Act and Dunne though. Dunne has probably earned himself a “cup of tea” with all his good behaviour of late, whislt Banks is smart enough to realise his time is up. An Act successor might do well in Epsom though.

    • tricledrown 2.1
      25 July 2013 at 9:17 am

      tamati if labour,s performance does not improve peters may stand a chance but his star is fading he can not articulate like he used to, his smoking habit is damaging his vocal cords badly and his brain is definitely not as sharp as it used to be!

      • gnomic 2.1.1
        28 July 2013 at 3:01 pm

        Saw WP addressing a gathering of Grey Power a week or so ago. For someone who I am told is 68, he was not showing much sign of fading. One problem he may have is scraping money together for a campaign, he complained about having to spend much of his time looking for donations, slim pickings it appeared. He devoted a fair amount of time to bashing the Nats, especially Key, Joyce, and English. I am unfortunately not a lawyer, but his comments on the Minister for Everything seemed close to actionable. He will definitely not be swapping Xmas cards with Ms Shipley either. Not a single mention of Labour. According to Winston the Maori Party is gone, likewise Banks. An obligatory swipe at the Greens. He claims that the current regime will not go the distance to November 2014, something awaits disclosure which will mean they have to call the election early. So watch that space . . , ,

    • mickysavage 2.2
      25 July 2013 at 9:19 am

      Last Roy Morgan had NZ First at 4.5% and Peters campaigns well. There is this drift of votes to the minor parties during a campaign. Barring a calamity I am pretty sure that Peters will be back.

      • Tamati 2.2.1
        25 July 2013 at 9:24 am

        Yeah, polls are more in the 3-5% range now I look at it. Still it’s an outside chance he could end up with 4.5% or something like that.

      • Colonial Viper 2.2.2
        25 July 2013 at 9:31 am

        It would be helpful to Winston if Key and Banks arranged another silly media stunt a few weeks before E Day 🙂

      • tricledrown 2.2.3
        25 July 2013 at 10:20 am

        Shearers failure to get traction in the polls is leaving swinging voters less options!
        Peters is the easy option!

        • Bearded Git 2.2.3.1
          25 July 2013 at 10:34 am

          I’m not a Shearer fan at all but he was better on Backbenches last night-said things as though he meant it. For instance he said if Labour were elected in 2014 the rail link would start to be built in 2015 and would be finished by 2020-the time National proposes to begin building it.

          • DavidC 2.2.3.1.1
            25 July 2013 at 7:36 pm

            BG.

            Shearer told a flat out lie.

            You believe that a project of that magnitude can be designed, consented and tendered in a one year time frame?

            I have bridge for sale!

            • Murray Olsen 2.2.3.1.1.1
              26 July 2013 at 2:12 am

              There are 5 or 6 years from 2015 to 2020. Where do you get one year from?

              • DavidC …
                26 July 2013 at 3:19 pm

                “start to be built”

                One year to start requires a design and consent.

                Math isnt that hard really, try it sometime.

                • Murray Olsen …
                  26 July 2013 at 11:01 pm

                  You mean arithmetic, and it’s not hard, no. Next time I want advice on Stratonovich calculus, or anything else, I won’t come to you.

  3. King Kong 3
    25 July 2013 at 9:16 am

    Sounds like you lot have thrown in the towel already.

    if you’re beaten and you know it clap your hands

    • scotty 3.1
      25 July 2013 at 9:36 am

      A spectacular climbdown from Key and his supporters.
      What happened ?
      Three weeks ago , Nats were spouting nonsense about governing alone, now the realisation that Keys ‘entire political future, relies on the whim of Winston Peters.

    • Pasupial 3.2
      25 July 2013 at 10:36 am

      @ KK

      I myself haven’t seen anyone comment that they were thinking of surrendering the contest in the upcoming election. Plus even if the result then was against the left (whether due to a Natland First deal or not), there’d still be a responsibilty as citizens to oppose the actions of an unjust government (eg this coming Saturday’s rallies against the GCSB bill). It’s not all just a numbers game.

      Are you drinking early today, or still going from last night? Perhaps you and your beaten strawman can go play patty-cake while the sober converse.

      • King Kong 3.2.1
        25 July 2013 at 10:50 am

        Come on now. There is so much white flag waving going on at the moment you would be excused for mistaking NZ lefties for the Italian military.

        Of course it is totally understandable. I saw Shearer on “backbenchers” last night and he was just fucking awful. The sad thing is that he knows it. Everytime he finished one of his unintelligible statements he would close his eyes just that moment too long betraying the internal chastising that was going on.

  4. tricledrown 4
    25 July 2013 at 9:21 am

    primitive primate they let out 2 days in a row their must be overcrowding at the zoo or (asylum)

  5. Colonial Viper 5
    25 July 2013 at 9:24 am

    The answer is to get the underclass non-vote and former Maori Party vote to come out and support Mana.

    If Hone could get 3% that may be enough. Labour 32% Greens 14% Mana 3% = 49% = enough to form a government once wasted votes are considered.

    • Tamati 5.1
      25 July 2013 at 9:33 am

      Easier said than done – good luck though.

      You are forgetting that Key is able to exploit a loophole in MMP with Dunne and Banks essentially bonus seats, if Epsom and Ohariu voters split their votes.

    • bad12 5.2
      25 July 2013 at 10:31 am

      Lolz, i just posted an elongated comment further down the post espousing much the same as your comment, i don’t really believe, (unfortunately), that the Mana Party is in a position to take 3% of the Party vote at the 2014 election,(would love to be proven wrong),

      Mana tho, if the 1% of support recently polled by Roy Morgan is correct and that support holds up into 2014 are in a prime position with the help of some strategic voting by ‘floating’ left voters to secure another MP off of the party list,

      At 1% now it will only take as little as 1.2% for the Mana Party to gain that extra MP, with the rot having definitely taken hold of the Maori Party the Waiariki seat is Annette Sykes to take,

      3 Mana Party MP’s in the next Parliament is in my opinion going to go pretty close to allowing the ‘left’ a win in 2014 in what i see as being an extremely tight election…

      • weka 5.2.1
        25 July 2013 at 10:58 am

        Vote splitting between Mana, MP, GP, L won’t help.

        • Colonial Viper 5.2.1.1
          25 July 2013 at 11:00 am

          You are correct, but it is accessing the pool of non-voting under class and working class which is crucial and quite different to splitting the existing turn-up-to-vote into smaller pieces.

      • Tamati 5.2.2
        25 July 2013 at 11:03 am

        I think you’re being a bit optimistic about Mana. The reality is they have very little support outside the Maori electorates.

        Te Ururoa had a majority of nearly 1,900 whislt Hone only has a majority of 1,100 so I don’t think it’s certain that Mana will gain Waiariki. With the Maori seats it’s always very hard to predict. I think it is also plausable the Kelvin Davis could knock off Hone up North. I reality Mana could end up with 0,1 or 2 seats. I think three is a bit of a push. There polls would have to improve significantly, and traditionally their voters often don’t turn up on election day!

        • Ant 5.2.2.1
          25 July 2013 at 12:12 pm

          Traditionally not turning up on election day? Traditionally from the one by-election they won, the General Election where Hone was reelected and Annette got close to unseating Flavell, the latest where Te Hamua came second in a staunch Labour seat.

          Traditionally they seem to be doing okay.

    • Treetop 5.3
      25 July 2013 at 12:50 pm

      Hone’s best weapon would be a well organised Hikoi to Wellington starting at each end of the country.

    • DavidC 5.4
      25 July 2013 at 7:39 pm

      Mana isnt a party. It is a Northland personality cult lead by the crimal thug Hawariwa.

      • Murray Olsen 5.4.1
        26 July 2013 at 2:20 am

        ACT is an Epsom cult of no personality led by the criminal thug Banks. UF is a cult of jelly lovers led by that bad haircut Dunne.
        Mana is a cross cultural movement of the lower socio-economic members of society which wishes to take our country back for its people rather than hand it over to foreign interests.
        Why are you such a fervent supporter of economic treason and why do you have such hatred for other Kiwis?

        • DavidC 5.4.1.1
          26 July 2013 at 3:20 pm

          Banks is a criminal? care to inform me of what he has been convicted?

          If you want to keep NZ out of foreign then never let Labour in power again. 300,000 Ha’s sold in one year under Helen wasnt it?

          • Daveosaurus 5.4.1.1.1
            26 July 2013 at 7:19 pm

            Endangering lives of other passengers by being an arse on a commercial flight, 1991. Fined $750.00

            • Arfamo 5.4.1.1.1.1
              26 July 2013 at 7:38 pm

              Got a link?

              • Daveosaurus …
                26 July 2013 at 8:51 pm

                There’s a reference to the incident here, and no doubt much material on the subject in newspaper archives. As Google wasn’t around in 1991, there isn’t much in the way of documentation that’s actually linkable.

                • Arfamo …
                  26 July 2013 at 8:58 pm

                  Aha. Cheers for that Daveo.

                  • bad12 …
                    26 July 2013 at 11:24 pm

                    Yes i was there in 1991, sitting in the back of the number one court in the old court building in Wellington,

                    Now that was a hoot, waiting for the judge i sat behind Banks and gave Him a blistering mouthful about the families criminal past,(Archie, Banks old man had done time in Auckland’s Mt Eden prison),

                    The Judge who had the doors to His chambers open ready to enter the court let me finish the slagging off of Banks befor getting down to business,

                    More laughter ensued when Bank’s wouldn’t enter the ‘dock’, attempting to push His police liason officer Inspector Sharky in first as if He was the culprit,

                    That was John Banks Minister of Police circa 1991, leopards and spots, a timeless adage, they never seem to change…

          • Murray Olsen 5.4.1.1.2
            26 July 2013 at 11:04 pm

            Dunno. When was Helen in Mana?

  6. tricledrown 6
    25 July 2013 at 9:25 am

    Primitive primate after all that chest ‘beating’ your peck’s must be sore so it would be safer to clap your hands !

    • bad12 6.1
      25 July 2013 at 10:17 am

      i believe that that one spends ‘it’s’ time beating something other than ‘it’s’ chest, in that case the sore ‘pecks’ needs a little revision with a view to deleting an S and inserting an ER…

  7. King Kong 7
    25 July 2013 at 9:31 am

    You can change your name Mike E but it is still considered as stalking.

  8. Dv 8
    25 July 2013 at 9:36 am

    Maybe Winston will do what he did in 96? in reverse.

    Go with Lab after sucking up to Key all the time.

  9. bad12 9
    25 July 2013 at 10:06 am

    i don’t agree with your reading of the political landscape at all MS, firstly what makes you think that either Dunne or Banks are finished,

    The voters of Epsom happily installed the already convicted Banks knowing that He could be the difference in their being a National Government or not at the 2011 election, National strategists must know that should they field and support a candidate in Epsom for 2014 and win that seat they,(National), will be light 1 seat in the following Parliament via losing a list MP,

    i would suggest that National will do everything possible to get Banks or another ACT clone elected in the Epsom electorate right up to having another Epsom chimps tea-party between the encumbant and the Slippery little Shyster we currently entertain as Prime Minister,

    The ‘Hairdo’s Ohariu electorate poses the exact same problem for National, should Dunne retire and National win that electorate they will simply be light one coalition partner and will have one less list MP in the Parliament,

    i don’t believe that Dunne has any intentions of retiring at the 2014 election and has enough support in the Ohariu electorate to hold that seat, given His ”willing buyer, willing seller” comment over supporting the present Government GCSB spying bill i would dare to suggest that National will not heavily contest this seat giving Dunne the nod as they have done for Banks in Ohariu,

    If Mana’s Annette Sykes contests the seat currently held by Te Ururoa Flavell at the 2014 election then i would put my money on Flavell not being present in the 2014 Parliament, it’s a 50/50 then who gets the Waiariki seat, Annette Sykes or She may just split the vote enough for a yet un-named Labour candidate to win,

    The Mana Party it’self cannot be ruled out, Roy Morgan has polled Mana at the 1% for the first time, should this rise in support hold firm for Mana, (and their profile will gain a boost from John Minto contesting the Auckland Mayoralty), there is every chance that Mana could gain the 1.2% of support needed to gain a list MP and if Sykes unseats Flavell there is a good chance for a 3 seat bloc of Mana Party MP’s in the next Parliament,

    i am seriously considering a Party vote for Mana in 2014 if the Green Party vote holds up in the polls heading for the election,

    Winston bringing NZFirst back into the Parliament in 2014 is also not a certainty, a lot of the ‘strategic voting’ from the left went to NZFirst at the 2011 election seeing the chance to either strengthen the Opposition benches in the face of a weakened Labour or actually stealing the election right out from under the noses of Slippery’s National Government,

    That ‘strategic voting’ will have mostly disappeared by November 2014 as support for NZFirst from the left will like me probably do the numbers and try and easily gain that small % of support needed by the Mana Party to gain a list MP,

    In my opinion this bleeding of support from NZFirst if not bolstered by support from right wing sources will leave NZFirst short of the 5% needed for a return to the Parliament after November 2014 so NZFirst in my opinion are not a certainty to enter the next Parliament let alone act as the prop which enables a third term National Government,

    My overall view of the 2014 election is that it will be tight, an extremely close race which could either result in a hung Parliament or one side, left or right gaining the Treasury Benches with a one vote majority, and enough strategic voters from the left Party voting Mana may just provide that small % needed to bring in an extra MP off of the Mana Party list and ensure National cannot form a third term Government…

    • Bearded Git 9.1
      25 July 2013 at 10:27 am

      Good analysis. If Peters bombs out with 4.8% then Labour 33, Greens 13, Mana 1.3 would almost certainly do the trick. This is entirely possible.

      For what it’s worth I think Peters hates Key’s guts because he tried to destroy him in 2008-look at the body language. IMHO Peters will go with Labour with Greens out of cabinet.

      • bad12 9.1.1
        25 July 2013 at 10:43 am

        Yeah i would agree with your analysis of Winston/Slippery and it’s hard to say in the face of a Ministerial position and the chance of again splitting His own party in two what Winston would do should He be ‘kingmaker’,

        You can be sure as hell over one thing tho, the Slippery little Shyster’s underlings will be all over the likes of who they see as the NZFirst rightwing/weaker MP’s going into 2014 and should they need to will offer enough of them ‘list seats for life’ to cross the floor into the National ranks should this be the only means of National holding power,

        Tau Henare is their template and the proof to any ‘sellout’ NZFirst MP’s that National would keep their end of a bargain to sell their political souls…

    • mickysavage 9.2
      25 July 2013 at 10:41 am

      Thanks bad12.

      I am saying that Peters being king maker is likely but not inevitable. This time there may be an interesting phenomenon where National voters give NZ First strategic support just like Labour supporters did in 2011.

      Peters is a survivor. NZ First has been returned in 5 of the 6 MMP elections and only missed out in 2008 when everything was thrown at Peters in an effort to discredit him. I am confident that he will be returned.

      I agree also that it will be tight. Essentially National IMHO cannot win without Peters and because of this he is in a very strong position.

      I also agree about Mana. If they could get their act together they could form an important block in Parliament. Although the net gain for the left may be nil if they do this by siphoning off votes from Labour or the Greens.

      • Tiger Mountain 9.2.1
        25 July 2013 at 10:59 am

        Agree MS, Mana need to do what they are doing, involving the young and disengaged that I describe below. New or returned, rather than recycled or siphoned off voters.

        Minto for Mayor will hopefully raise the Mana profile a bit. Annette Sykes could well kick Te Ururoa’s butt second time around too.

        • bad12 9.2.1.1
          25 July 2013 at 2:03 pm

          Aha, i am picking it, Annette Sykes to wipe the floor with the remnant of the selling out of Maori aspirations Te Ururoa Flavell,

          On 2011’s numbers Annette needs 1894 votes to unseat Flavell thus giving the Maori Party it’s just deserts for having supported this Slippery National Government for 6 ugly long years,

          Labour in 2011 came a distant 3rd in this electorate and if Labour had any smarts going into 2014 they would give the nod to Annette Sykes by simply campaigning for the party vote in Waiariki but (Lolz), i doubt that anyone in Labour views any electorate through the lens of an overall election strategy,

          The numbers needed for Mana to have 3 MP’s in the House after November 2014 are small and might not even rely upon dragging the non-voters by the scruff of their lazy necks to the polls on the day,

          IF the swing against the Maori Party and too the Mana Party that was evident in Parekura’s old seat in the recent by-election translates across all the Maori electorate seats then i would suggest here and now that a 3 seat bloc of Mana MP’s in the next Parliament is a done deal,

          Mana only need, on current polling, Point 2 Percent of the party vote to secure that second seat in the Parliament that is simply a matter of a few thousand party votes and while i believe that the impending death of the Maori Party could well provide those few thousand party votes i see no reason to be comfortable nor complacent so will continue to point out the numbers, in the few thousands, which may just make the difference in turfing that Slippery little Shyster out of the Parliament and outta our country…

      • Tiger Mountain 9.2.2
        25 July 2013 at 11:00 am

        Agree MS, Mana need to do what they are doing, involving the young and disengaged that I describe below. New or returned, rather than recycled or siphoned off voters.

        Minto for Mayor will hopefully raise the Mana profile a bit. Annette Sykes could well kick Te Ururoa’s butt second time around too.

      • bad12 9.2.3
        25 July 2013 at 11:14 am

        Agree with everything there MS, except,(lolz sorry), your analysis of NZFirst support at the 2011 election being at the expense of ‘Labour voters’,

        In the face of ‘National governing alone’ , ‘voting NZFirst is wasted’, and, ‘polls show NZFirst not in next Parliament’ the Hooten, Blubber boy, Farrer ‘spin’ leading up to the 2011 election i spent months on another web-site ‘talking up’ NZFirst even going so far as to ‘predict’ that party’s support at between 6.2 and 12%, (an educated guess which IPredict of all things helped me to make with what i call their ‘machinations’ much to their surprise),

        You could say that the 4.9% of Party vote NZFirst gained in 2008 is their core support and the rest are votes that could go anywhere, i don’t necessarily believe that should enough of this support evaporate from NZFirst in 2014 that it will make that much of a difference in the % of either the Labour or Green party vote,

        However, IF Mana as the Roy Morgan Poll suggests have reached 1% of popular support then that Party needs only to poll as little as 1.2% of the party vote to gain a list MP,

        If you follow me, both the Labour and Green Party’s might gain nothing from capturing that point two percent of the party vote BUT it’s gold to the Mana Party already having 1% of the Party Vote only needing that Point Two of a Percent to gain a second MP in the House off of the party list,

        i seriously doubt whether many voters who either strongly support Labour or the Greens will entertain the idea of strategically voting for the Mana Party and would right here advise them not to,

        However, for the ‘Floating Voter’ not wedded to any Party who wants to change the Government then i would definitely advise that a Party vote for Mana has a reasonable chance of doing just that…

      • just saying 9.2.4
        25 July 2013 at 11:26 am

        The net gain for the left, if they siphoned Labour votes, (which I doubt), would be that a vote for Mana is a vote for the left.

  10. paul andersen 10
    25 July 2013 at 10:10 am

    I am not a fan of winston, but one thing he has always voted against(got him sacked by national) is asset sales. I think that and the reform of the reserve bank act would be too high a price for national to pay.

    • Karen 10.1
      25 July 2013 at 12:52 pm

      Don’t worry, National will have flogged off all the best assets before the next election, just in time to agree to NZF’s coalition deal proviso that there be no (more) asset sales.

  11. vto 11
    25 July 2013 at 10:13 am

    Winston Peters and John Key make a perfect couple.

    Mutually insincere, lying, deceptive pricks whose sentences make no sense.

    It is a match made in heaven.

  12. Tiger Mountain 12
    25 July 2013 at 10:18 am

    Parliamentary numbers machinations should also be considered in light of hundreds of thousands of eligible ‘non voters’, the disengaged and marginalised. All bets are off if this lot are awakened. Winston is not getting any younger either, NZ1 goes when he does.

    Another thing is that thousands of beneficiaries are now deemed ‘job seekers’, not parents, caregivers or too sick to work full time. Many backs will be against the wall in short order with compulsory doctor enrollment for kids etc the WINZ punishment machine is winding up.

    So will the desperate burgle the neighbourhood again (diminishing returns) or get organised? This is what the mainstream parties totally miss, the dull reality for too many Kiwis who could not give one for Winston or anyone else.

  13. One Anonymous Knucklehead 13
    25 July 2013 at 10:23 am

    Obviously I’d prefer Labour/Green (with NZ1st on 4.99% :twisted:), but Winston talks a big talk on asset sales; if he sticks to it can you see the National Party reacquiring MRP to please him?

    What will the Greens do if Labour form a minority government with NZ1st? Refuse confidence and supply? Yeah right.

    • Colonial Viper 13.1
      25 July 2013 at 10:28 am

      Why not?

      If Labour fails to give the Greens good Cabinet positions, what is in it for the Greens, as a party with 15-20 MPs, to look weak and subservient to Labour and a Winston with just 6-7 MPs?

      • King Kong 13.1.1
        25 July 2013 at 10:40 am

        It is important to remember that being weak and subservient is a character trait of those who make up the Greens.

        Norman might be getting a bit carried away now but a decent clip around the ears and he will sit down sulkily and do what he’s told. Just like he always has.

        • Draco T Bastard 13.1.1.1
          25 July 2013 at 9:27 pm

          It is important to remember that being weak and subservient is a character trait of those who make up the Greens.

          LOL

          The only people who are subservient are the authoritarians that vote for National and Act. They exist to obey their “leaders”.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 13.1.2
        25 July 2013 at 10:55 am

        So you’re saying they’d enable a National Party government? Seems unlikely.

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.2.1
          25 July 2013 at 11:09 am

          The Greens aren’t going to be taken for granted this time around. I’m saying that the Greens would want 2-3 Cabinet positions, and if Labour didn’t agree to that quite reasonable position, Labour would be the ones enabling a National Government.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 13.1.2.1.1
            25 July 2013 at 11:16 am

            I don’t think the issue is whether they can work with Labour.

            • Colonial Viper 13.1.2.1.1.1
              25 July 2013 at 11:28 am

              Access to your very own Ministerial Warrant is damn persuasive in improving co-operation skills.

          • Tamati 13.1.2.1.2
            25 July 2013 at 11:37 am

            The problem for the Greens is they have nothing to fall back on. Their BANTA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) is sitting in opposition for three more years, saying nice aspirational things and achieving abosultly nothing.

            Shearer will offer them some nice ‘Green’ portfolios such as conservation and environment, as well as a couple of associates in health and social welfare. They won’t be let anywhere near health, education, MOBIE and transport, let alone finance.

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 13.1.2.1.2.1
              25 July 2013 at 11:44 am

              Absolutely nothing? Are you sure?

              I suppose it wouldn’t really be fair of me to judge the rest of your “contribution” by that little howler, but life isn’t fair, is it?

              • Tamati …
                25 July 2013 at 2:43 pm

                What have the Greens achieved in opposition then?

                • bad12 …
                  25 July 2013 at 4:43 pm

                  My house is fully insulated,both in the roof and under the floor due to the Green Party in opposition gaining the subsidy from the previous Labour Government and also convincing this present National Government to continue the work…

                  • Tamati …
                    25 July 2013 at 5:03 pm

                    Ok, the home insulation scheme and ….

                    • bad12 …
                      25 July 2013 at 5:06 pm

                      AND…while in opposition for 9 years what did this present Government achieve,

                      Here let me answer that one for you, sweet FA…

  14. chrissy 14
    25 July 2013 at 10:52 am

    I wonder what makes key think he can manage Winnie?

  15. Allyson 15
    25 July 2013 at 3:42 pm

    Can anyone tell me Winston’s attitude to the re-nationalisation of power companies.

  16. jaymam 16
    25 July 2013 at 5:05 pm

    I think Winston would like another go as a Minister of Foreign Affairs, so NZ1 will be in coalition with National. I don’t think Labour and Greens have any chance of winning the next election, and Dunne and Banks should get booted out.
    So my friends and relatives and I will be doing the same as last time, supporting Hone and Winston and Goldsmith. I can’t see any sensible alternative.

  17. Steve 17
    25 July 2013 at 7:13 pm

    If you can’t/wont vote for Labour, can you please vote for Winnie, he is our last chance.
    Pathetic

  18. Murray Olsen 18
    26 July 2013 at 2:29 am

    I think Banks has gone, thank God. This leaves a problem for Key in Epsom, because he can’t afford a real ACT member in there. Their core beliefs are completely opposed to a lot of the authoritarian police state rubbish that is so dear to National hearts. He would need to insert another National fool into the Epsom electorate, with the ACT label. I’m not sure who that could be at this stage.

  19. TruthSeeker 19
    26 July 2013 at 9:52 pm

    If Winston is hell-bent on doing a deal with National, then why is he pursuing Key so relentlessly on Dotcom? He’s doing a better job on that front than Labour.

  20. AmaKiwi 20
    27 July 2013 at 1:44 am

    It is called a “minimum winning coalition.” It means the minor party which can put a major party over the 51% line has a huge amount of leverage.

    This has always been Winston’s strategy. He keeps enough to the left and enough to the right that he can go either way, depending on who offers him the best deal.

    NO ONE, not even Winston, will know which way he will go until the votes are counted.

    • Colonial Viper 20.1
      27 July 2013 at 2:40 am

      Over the 49% line…given that wasted votes usually mean you that a coalition can form the government with just less than 50% of the votes cast…

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