I was writing about the topic as early as 2012, when I worked at the University of Canterbury. https://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.com/2012/12/more-fat-taxes-and-minor-correction.html I know it's easier to ignore arguments you don't like if you demonise ...
The Initiative lists its members on its website. Having a broad membership base means independence. I'd sooner we lost a member than skewed our work to suit the preferences of any of them. Since there's 50 of them, none of them have any power to sway ...
The many interested fans of the Initiative here at The Standard are encouraged to read our report on zero percent loans: https://nzinitiative.org.nz/insights/reports/decade-of-debt-the-cost-of-interest-free-student-loans/ Long story short: the programme ...
We recommended reinstating interest on loans and using the savings to fund stronger tertiary preparation, especially in schools with poor track records in getting kids through to tertiary; we also recommended some of the savings be put into means-tested ...
I'll just copy here the comment I left for Salmond over on his blog. And thanks for the kind words above; the standard of discussion here always cheers me up. --- If you check the full op-ed piece, you'll note that my main argument is about the hassle cost...
I'm not sure that profits from minimum pricing wind up going to the liquor companies; you need to assume some other market failure in the system to get there. See here. Not that I like minimum pricing; I'm just not sure that it can confer rents.
It's Dube et al; I'm sure it googles with the title. But note that the real value of the minimum wage in the US is far lower than it is here; it would be foolhardy to expect that results that obtain when the minimum wage is a third the average would also ...
More fully: The cited email is one analyst's view, in 2010, that evidence from the early 2000s of a lack of effect of changes in youth minimum wages on youth employment suggests we oughtn't jump too quickly to ascribe changes in current youth unemployment ...
More fully: The cited email is one analyst's view, in 2010, that evidence from the early 2000s of a lack of effect of changes in youth minimum wages on youth employment suggests we oughtn't jump too quickly to ascribe changes in current youth unemployment ...
No. read the post.
Interesting that y'all are happy to take an email from a single analyst on an only tangentially related issue as representing Treasury's official view. You might recall that Treasury opposed a $0.25 increase in 2010; Gower paints them as supporting a $2 ...
Do note that the unemployment rate for 15-19 year olds is 27.5%. The 2008 changes hit the 15-17 year old cohort; the recession made the prior elimination of the youth rate for 18-19 year olds binding. At least that's my bet.
1. I don't object to the title chosen for the piece, but do recall that op-ed writers don't write the headline; subeditors do. I didn't know the title till the piece was in print. 2. Hoodwink Academy? Neo-Victorian? You guys crack me up.
@Puddleglum: We would expect that firms able to fire more easily during the trial period would do so. As for the magnitude of the effect - I'd be really surprised if it were that big. Firms don't like firing people 'cause you have to train them. Say the ...
@Puddlegum: NZIER here is kinda trying for a "water flows downhill" result. There is really strong reason from basic price theory to expect it increased employment among the firms who were eligible. Of course you are right that if small employers tended in...
Are you saying they can't afford to give them ponies? Note that wages at sweatshops are higher than prevailing wages in those countries - that's why workers try to get jobs in those factories rather than elsewhere.
Thanks for the partial disambiguation; I always prefer knowing to whom I'm talking. The youth unemployment rate went up then, sure, but not by nearly as much or as quickly relative to the adult unemployment rate. From 1990 to 1992 or so, the unexplained ...
If somebody chose a factory over prostitution, then went to prostitution when the factory closed, I'd have to say that that person preferred the factory. If somebody preferred prostitution from the outset, that's of course different.
They should give them all ponies too. And round trip tickets to Disneyland.
I have no clue what you're on about, lprent (what the hell is up with nobody here using a real name anyway?!). Go to Offsetting Behaviour, hit the sidebar link on minimum wages. The bit relevant to New Zealand started with a very basic ordinary least ...
You're right that I do not show causation. What I did show is that youth unemployment, relative to the adult unemployment rate, went crazy very shortly after the youth minimum wage was hiked to the adult rate - and went crazy in a way that it didn't in any...
You're seriously going to put "Marty G" up as the best critique?
I tend to think it rather important in policy making to separate questions of desert from questions of feasibility. I don't know anything about desert - I've no comparative advantage in sorting out who deserves what. But neither do you. What I do know ...
I was avoiding the point out of politeness, given that this is a Labour party blog. What happened at the end of 2008? Think hard. Something that just might have made Kiwis happier about who their government was (or was about to be) and about the likelihood...
You think the crash of 2008 was due to an oil shock? Interesting perspective. I trust that you've invested most of your assets then in oil futures?
Go to Google Scholar. Type in the terms (economic retrospective voting). Basic upshot of a whole pile of literature - the better the economy is doing, the better an incumbent will do. Think back to 2008 when your oil price graph tanks. What was going on ...
Overall strength of the economy determines both petrol prices and support for incumbents. You need something more than correlations to make your case.
Of course on the last bit; I'd expect it to be a bigger negative to Labour than to National, so it's why I suggested it. So your preference ordering is then (Labour govt with Winston) > (National govt without Winston). Pretty much any configuration with NZ...
Would you reckon that Labour could again go into coalition with New Zealand First? Suppose that the first two list places are Peters and Laws. And maybe the Sensible Sentencing Trust has bought a third place position in NZ First.
The odds on NZ First come from the contract paying out if Winston re-enters Parliament. If we take that as being due to NZ First passing the threshold rather than due to Winston or Laws taking a seat, then NZ First gets more seats in all states of the ...
First off, Taito wasn't his first name, it was his title. Also searched on "Philip Field" and didn't find it. But I picked Taito as most likely unique identifier. Just "Field" could bring up anything, "Philip Field" would miss anything that didn't have the...
Recent Comments